Friday, June 29, 2007

The Trade From Left Field

"I twisted it wrong just to make it right."

The NBA Draft has come and gone, and if your a Celtics fan, you have to appreciate what went down:

A. We got Ray Allen. Sure, he's coming off surgery on both his ankles, and yet I could care less. If this guy plays at 75%, he's a better pure shooter than anything the C's gave right now. Plus, Allen's rehab is going along as planned, meaning that he will be ready for training camp. Allen adds that scoring element the Celts were in desperate need of.

B. In terms of what we had to give up to get Allen, we made out pretty well. Wally never even got acclimated to his new team, and was a complete non-factor in the year and a half he played for the Green. Szczerbiak played only 32 games last year because of...you guessed it, ankle problems. Jeff Green could turn out to be a nice role player, but he is nowhere close to being an All-Star anytime soon. The one piece the C's had to give up that was of any real value was Delonte West, because now you're officially handing the starting job to Rondo, and if he can't get the job done, there really isn't anyone else to come in and help out. West will be missed for that, and also, he was a guy who was totally unselfish and could do pretty much anything asked of him.

C. The trade was somewhat lob-sided to Seattle...that is before they also threw in the #35 overall pick in this year's draft. This was a nice little bonus that wasn't expected at all. So, with the #32 and #35 picks in a fairly deep draft, the Celts were able to draft two guys I had going in the first round. At 32, they get Gabe Pruitt, who likely will be Delonte's replacement in terms of a "combo" guard who can play both the point and two-guard. Pruitt comes out of Southern Cal as a junior, and in his final year, scored in double figures in 19 of 26 games he played, earning him a spot on the all Pac-10 team for the second year in a row. The biggest knock on him was that he may not be a pure point guard, which is fine considering he'll be asked to play both guard positions. At 35, the C's took Glen Davis from LSU. This is a very intriguing pick, because Davis has a ton of potential, but will his game translate to the NBA? Davis comes in at 6'9, 280 pounds...280. If there was a question that the Celts would draft a big guy in the draft, they were put to rest with that pick. Davis, along with Pruitt, was ranked in the top 25 of Chad Ford's final draft prospect rankings. In 2006, LSU made an incredible run to the Final Four that was spearheaded by Davis along with then-freshman Tyrus Thomas. Davis saw his minutes go up in each of his three years, and responded by averaging a double-double (17.7, 10.4) last year. Davis will be competing for minutes with Ryan Gomes, the incumbent power forward, and could also see some time at center.

D. With Ray Allen on the team, you now have one of the greatest name duos in the history of the sports. Ray Allen and Allan Ray on the same team...finally!

In all seriousness though, I am thrilled at what the Celts did last night. They get a veteran to compliment Pierce, they didn't have to give up too much, and were able to get two guys with first-round talent at the top of the second round. Also, they didn't draft Noah, so I can continue to root for this team. Did you see the kid's hair last night? I mean...are you serious? I'm sure David Stern, Mr. Dress Code, was loving that on the initial handshake. Anyway, judging from the reaction at the bar last night, there are going to be some folks who are skeptical about this trade, either because of their doubt in Allen or their desire to get Marion, or Garnett, or some other big name. All I can say is that I personally like it, and it's way too early to presume that Allen won't be effective. Let's just wait and see what happens when he's on the court with Pierce before we jump to any conclusions. Another telling sign was that this team is committed to Al Jefferson, which I personally applaud because Jefferson, at 22, has already shown he is a franchise guy, and once Paul Pierce moves on, this will be Jefferson's team. In every trade imaginable to get KG or Marion, it would involve the Celts giving up Big Al, and that was something they could not afford to do.

The Sox got swept up in Seattle, including losing two one-run games. This created some cause for concern. It's not bridge-jumping stuff, it's more eye-rolling stuff. First of all, why is Julio Lugo even playing? I mean what's the point? The guy needs a couple days off to just get away from everything, then see how he responds to that. I love how he threw a fit when he was pinch-hit for in the eleventh when the score was tied in the series finale. Where does he get off? The guy is hitting under .200, and with Cora, you have a guy who has been known to produce in clutch situations. Sure, Cora ended up grounding into a double play, but that was by far their best option at the time. I've been telling everyone all along that Lugo was not going to work, and now, we're three months into the year, and they need someone to pinch-hit for the guy because they have absolutely no confidence in Lugo's abilities. I know that they have been thinking that they Jed Lowrie, their shortstop prospect in AA, could potentially be trade bait in July, they had better think again, unless it involves getting another shortstop (Miguel Tejada anyone?). The other area of some concern has to be everyone outside Okajima and Papelbon in the bullpen. Timlin still cannot be trusted in games that are on the line, Piniero has been wildly inconsistent. Also, there are some definite question marks in terms of starting pitching. Schill is on the DL, and who knows if he'll be the same quality pitcher when he returns. Wakefield has been all over the place, and has given up more than three runs in six of his last eight starts. Then, there is the #5 starter saga. Kason Gabbard pitched well against the Braves, but followed that up with a horrific performance against Seattle, a game that the Sox valiantly fought back in, but were too far behind to complete the comeback. Six walks in 3 1/3 innings? In addition, Jon Lester had an awful start for Pawtucket, meaning his return to the rotation will probably be delayed again.

However, there is some good news, as Brendan Donnelly has been throwing long toss, and Manny Delcarmen has been the flame-thrower everyone envisioned him being. True, he did give up two runs against the M's, but hitters are only hitting .133 in his five appearances, and his fastball has hit 97 with movement. The sweep was tough to take, but consider the Sox have never done well in Seattle, and they return to Fenway to take on the lowly Rangers, so I'm expecting at least two of three there, while the Yanks are playing the A's at the Stadium over the weekend.

I was reading Sports Guy as I was writing this, and read over his Draft Diary. Apparently, I am in the minority that feels like this was a good trade for the Celts...oh well. I could be wrong, but I hope for my sake, and the sake of Celtic fans everywhere, that I'm not. Have a good weekend everyone. Peace.

~Mell-o

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

NBA Mock Draft 2.0...And More!

"Riding across the land, kicking up sand
Sheriff's posse's on my tail 'cause I'm in demand."

Back again for a little bit more of the same. It's hot, it's summer, so why waste time?

The Sox are back into "regular" play after two plus weeks of no DH's and bad lineups...actually, really bad lineups. I love how we went 12-6 in interleague action, but face it, most of the lineups we faced were total garbage. Arizona? San Fran? San Diego? These teams have maybe one good hitter, and the rest you can pretty much chalk up to luck...and worst of all, it doesn't seem like they'll be getting any better. True, these teams have some great pitching going for them. Arizona has the reigning Cy Young in Brandon Webb and the re-charged, re-energized Randy Johnson, the Giants' fourth best pitcher right now is Barry Zito, so that's a bit of an indication on how good they are, and the Padres have the best 1-2 starting pitching punch in the majors and the best bullpen in the league. Yet with all that being said, these teams are mediocre at best. The D-Backs and the Padres have two of the best records in the NL, yet played poorly against the AL in interleague play. Arizona went 8-7 and San Diego went 6-9, and the reason Arizona did so well is because they faced Baltimore six times, going 5-1. So what does all this mean? Well, it's easy for someone to say that the AL has better players and better talent, but it stems a lot deeper than that. It's all about resources...money more specifically. Consider this: When I calculated the 2007 Opening Day payrolls for both AL teams and NL teams, the difference was staggering. First, only three NL teams are in the top 10 payrolls in the league...and they have 16 teams! Then, I averaged both the AL and NL payrolls, and those results were even more startling. The average AL payroll was $93,412,706. The average payroll for the NL was $74,141,326. That is a difference of $19,271,380...almost $20 million! When you toss out the lowest AL payroll, which is Tampa Bay, not surprisingly, the next-lowest team is the Cleveland Indians, who spent almost $62 million this year. There were six teams that spent less than that in the NL, and two of those teams are San Diego and Arizona. What's even more puzzling is that both teams went down from their 2006 payrolls, with the Padres cutting $11.5 million and Arizona cutting $7 million, only the Nationals cut more ($26 million) than those two. Does the league alignment have anything to do with this? I wonder. Think about it: the AL has only 14 teams to divvy up all their revenues to, and the NL has 16 teams. Still, is that any excuse for a team to cut back that much in their payrolls? Money doesn't make the team, as evident by the Orioles, who spent $95 million this year, but what it does is open up some doors in terms of depth and player development that these teams are going to need come October.

I am so sick of Patriot fans going crazy about the supposed "greed" of Asante Samuel not signing his franchise tenure. Look, I know, we are probably not going to make as much money as Samuel is due to earn next year in our lifetimes, but you have to think about this entire thing from a business perspective, and not from an everyday, blue-collar standpoint. Samuel would make almost $8 million next year, but think about this in a long-term sense. Say Samuel signs that one-year deal, plays this year, and gets hurt, which could definitely happen. Samuel gets his eight mil, and then what? If he's lucky, the injury is not too severe, but still, his contract will not be worth nearly as much as it would be right now. Right now, Samuel is looking for around $20 million in guaranteed money. Now, personally, not only do I not think he won't get that from the Pats, but he won't get that much from anyone if he gets traded. Realistically, Asante should expect to get about $13-15 million guaranteed. Plus, the contract will be "back-heavy," meaning that the majority of the base contract will be paid out in the later years of the deal. The reason clubs do this is because they are able to pay a guy in his prime years a lot less than he would potentially be worth. Plus, because the life of an NFL career is such an unknown, this is protection from having to pay a guy big bucks for "damaged goods." In any event, getting back to my original message: Stop with the constant Asante hating. The guy is simply trying to capitalize off of a career season. If you had no guarantee from an employer if you would be able to work next year, wouldn't you try and get the most money you could up front?...Ok then.

The NBA Draft is right around the corner, and that means that I'm going to have to sure up my mock draft, and even provide some analysis for you. So, here comes the final mock draft installment:

Round One:
  1. Portland- Greg Oden. This should be Kevin Durant, and if the Blazers smarten up, it might be, but it seems like Portland is still so infatuated with Oden that he will probably end up going #1. Oden brings a lot to the table, but this team already seems to have a bevy of big men, including LaMarcus Aldridge, who was the second overall pick last year, and Zach Randolph, who is coming off a breakout season.
  2. Seattle- Kevin Durant. In terms of skill and upside, this guy is #1. Durant brings a lot to the table, and even more, he will be able to step in right away, as he will be playing in Rashard Lewis' spot at small forward.
  3. Atlanta- Al Horford. This should be Mike Conley, but why would the Hawks do something smart like take a gifted point guard, which they desperately need, when they could take a big man who is quick on his feet? Horford's a good prospect, but didn't Atlanta do the exact same thing last year? They passed on Brandon Roy and Rudy Gay last year for Sheldon Williams, and two years ago, passed on Deron Williams, Chris Paul, and Raymond Felton for Marvin Williams. If the Hawks think Conley will be there at #11 for their second first-rounder, they are dreaming.
  4. Memphis- Mike Conley. Although they have Chucky Atkins, Conley is simply the best player by far available right here. Conley is the best floor general in the draft, and the Grizz need someone to get the ball to Gasol in the middle before he starts demanding a trade again.
  5. Boston- Corey Brewer. This could very well be Jeff Green here, but Brewer is actually a better pick given that he is a better defender than Green. Remember, if the C's draft Noah here, it will officially cap off the worst year in Celtic history. Red passed on, the Celts tanked their season, Doc not only didn't get fired, but got an extension, the C's felt another brutal lottery loss, and then, if Noah comes aboard, the franchise will burn to the ground, at least they will in my mind. It's also a very real possibility, as he worked out for the Celts a few weeks ago...God help me now!
  6. Milwaukee- Brandan Wright. Dare I say Marvin Williams all over again? In what is basically the exact same subplot as what launched Williams to #2 two years ago: A Tar Heel who has a ton of unrefined talent, and who scouts have drooled over for his athleticism and size. Unfortunately, I don't see Wright being able to play up to his top-5 billing.
  7. Minnesota- Joakim Noah. KG's future seems to be in doubt, and even if, somehow, the Timberwolves manage to keep Garnett, they do need some depth in the paint. Joakim Noah is just as he is advertised: He is a decent shooter, gets some rebounds, but will be called upon for his intensity more than anything.
  8. Charlotte- Jeff Green. Gerald Wallace just opted out of his contract, meaning that there is a void to be filled at the small forward position. The Bobcats need size down low, but they will probably be willing to put that on hold to get someone to replace Wallace.
  9. Chicago- Yi Jianlian. I had Yi going at #5 to the Celts, but it seems like their interest has been fanned a bit. The Bulls are in need of someone who can back up both Tyrus Thomas and Ben Wallace, and Jianlian would solve both those issues.
  10. Sacramento- Spencer Hawes. The Kings are another team with a big question mark at power forward. Hawes, who only played one year at U-Dub, will compete for a starting job right away with Kenny Thomas, and will definitely get his fair share of minutes regardless due to ongoing health concerns with Shareef Abdur-Rahim.
  11. Atlanta- Acie Law IV. Although Javaris Crittenton would be a good hometown pick for the Hawks, it seems that Law has peaked their attention ever since his workout. The Hawks are in desperate need for a point guard, and Law was easily one of the best in the nation last year.
  12. Philadelphia- Al Thornton. This is one of the easiest picks to make given that Thornton falls this far. This is the first of three first-round picks for the Sixers, and it would be almost unheard of if they kept all three of them. However, if Thornton is still available, this would be a great add to Philly's lineup, which is lacking physicality at the forward position.
  13. New Orleans- Nick Young. The Hornets have Chris Paul, and now, they need a compliment for him. Young was outstanding in the tournament and showed a ton of athleticism in the pre-draft camp in Orlando.
  14. L.A. Clippers- Julian Wright. For whatever reason, the hype on Wright has minimized over the past few weeks. This is a classic case of someone not being a "sexy" pick, and therefore, others who stood out in workouts have passed Wright in favorability. The guy is still a top-10 talent, with the only knock on him being his lack of experience coming out as a sophomore.
  15. Detroit- Rodney Stuckey. This was interesting, because I had Thaddeus Young in this spot, but recently, I've seen a lot of movement for Stuckey to go ahead of Young. Not saying this is the way it should be, but hot rumors and potential are what fuel the draft.
  16. Washington- Thaddeus Young. So basically, I just flipped the two picks, with both teams needing exactly the same thing, and both guys play the same way anyway, so no one is going to lose in this situation.
  17. New Jersey- Sean Williams. I have all the confidence in the world that Williams will be a great player in the league if he stays out of trouble...big "if" considering where he's headed.
  18. Golden State- Jason Smith. I still like Smith to go to the Warriors because it seems like they need some depth in the frontcourt, as their guard play, especially Baron Davis, was outstanding in the playoffs.
  19. L.A. Lakers- Javaris Crittenton. There is no certainty about their team. Even their best player may not be back next year. What is known is that the Lakers passed on trading for Jason Kidd and ended up getting stuck with Smush Parker at the point. Crittenton has perhaps more upside than anyone in this draft given his makeup, and could turn out to be a steal at #19.
  20. Miami- Gabe Pruitt. There's only so far you can push "White Chocolate," and riding him to a championship was way more than they could have asked for. Miami needs youth in a bunch of places, and Pruitt would certainly fill a need.
  21. Philadelphia- Glen Davis. Davis has been one of the biggest lightning rods in the whole draft. People either think he'll be a good fit, or think he will fail miserably. What Davis needs to do is try and get into the gray area that has been created by great (Shaq) and not-so-great (Stromile Swift) LSU big men.
  22. Charlotte- Daequan Cook. I'm going to stay with Cook going to Charlotte here. What the Bobcats are dying for is a perimeter scorer, and from what Cook showed in his limited time with the Buckeyes (50% from three), he may be able to have an immediate impact along with Green.
  23. New York- Jared Dudley. Ah yes, a New York pick. Well Knick fans, I hope this one makes you happy. Dudley has all the skills and the heart to be great in the league, and given last year's first round pick (Rey Rey!), the Knicks do put value on a player's heart and desire.
  24. Phoenix- Wilson Chandler. With Shawn Marion either leaving this year or next year most likely, the Suns need some depth at small forward. Chandler has been a name that has risen up draft boards, and has gone from being a guy who might get drafted, to a sure-fire first-rounder.
  25. Utah- Morris Almond. Utah is in dire need of a perimeter scorer to take some of the load off Deron Williams. Almond is another guy who has seen is stock go up before the draft, and although he played at a small school (Rice), his abilities and his workouts have translated into slipping into the late first round.
  26. Houston- Tiago Splitter. Splitter is a guy who may not be able to come and play in the NBA until next year. With that being said, if he didn't have the kind of problems coming to the U.S. like he does, he could have been a top-10 pick. Measuring in at 7'0, 240 pounds, Splitter very much resembles Pau Gasol when he entered the league.
  27. Detroit- Dominic James. People may be surprised to see James in the first round, but what I liked about him is that he showed a lot of poise and leadership on the floor. Right now, Chauncey Billups' return is up in the air, so getting a point guard like James could provide as an insurance policy of sorts.
  28. San Antonio- Alando Tucker. The Spurs won the championship in relatively easy fashion, but still they are getting old, especially at the forward position. Guys like Bruce Bowen and Michael Finley will not be able to keep their game up to the level it is now. Tucker will be waiting in the wings once it is clear that those two are over the hill.
  29. Phoenix- Nick Fazekas. There is no such thing as having too much size, and with the "run and gun" style the Suns play, Fazekas adds an outside element that is tough to defend on fast breaks.
  30. Philadelphia- Taurean Green. If Philly keeps all three of their first-rounders, they are crazy. This draft is deep, but there are a bunch of impact guys that will go in the top 10 that the Sixers need to package some of their picks to move up. However, if they stay at #30, and Green is still around, they will be loving life. Andre Miller is still making plays, but it would be nice to have some depth to give him a breather every now and again.
That concludes the first round. To recap, Florida has four guys taken in the first round, the first time a school had four first-rounders since 2005 when UNC had four in the top 14 (Williams, Felton, May, McCants). Ohio State will send three of their phenomenal freshmen to the first round. This was a team that easily could have duplicated what the Fab Five of Michigan did, and probably could have done even more. Right now, I only have two international guys going in the first round. Although there could be more, I expect this to be an on-going trend considering the lack of impact international players have had on the league for the most part. Obviously there are exceptions (Yao, Manu, Parker, Gasol, etc.), but if you look at it from an overall sense, there is no way anyone can tell me that drafting a guy from overseas is a "sure thing."

Enjoy the draft everyone. Peace.

~Mell-o

Saturday, June 23, 2007

Up From The Down Low

"I am a man, a man
I'll give you something that you won't forget."

A belated happy summer to everyone! It's a little toasty down here in Charlotte, but I'm loving the heat, and was warned about how it was going to be, so this isn't surprising at all. So, here goes another post:

Fun Fact Of The Day: Kobe Bryant is the only player in the NBA to have a "no-trade" clause in his contract...which is funny because he wants to be traded, and his team doesn't want to get rid of him...all very fascinating.

So the e-mails are coming in about fantasy football...and I thought I was an early-riser. Are we really drafting already? Come on ESPN, it's June! How in the world do you start drafting before even training camp opens? Anyway, I just want to throw out that I am perhaps the most crazed person in terms of fantasy football, but even I think this is too early. However, it did get me to thinking a little bit about my strategy for the upcoming season. Look, I love all fantasy sports, but fantasy football has taken on a life of its own, and its popularity totally coincides with why the NFL has boomed in popularity over the last decade. With fantasy and Sunday Ticket from DirecTV introduced, you had the ability to watch every game, and all of a sudden, you cared about players and teams you normally probably would have not cared the least bit about. Anyway, enough about that...back to strategory. I'm thinking the amount of elite running backs is very small this year. Think about it: Tiki's gone, the Auburn duo of Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams are projected to have sub-1,000 yard seasons this year, and a bunch of second-year runners have been thrust into the spotlight in an attempt to make up for the departed and the under-performing. Ok, now last year I said don't touch Edge, which, if you didn't, you were wise. Also, taking LT over LJ at #1 probably helped you out, of course, I took LJ and won both my leagues, so you never know. The key for me is what others did. Sure, drafting is huge, but I have to say it's about a 2-3% of the time, a person will be completely satisfied with the team they drafted. It's inevitable that at one point during the draft, you will cringe with horror as a player you want gets taken about two rounds before you were going to get him, and then there's the "I can't believe this!" reaction that comes, and that is what makes fantasy football great, because already, the gears are grinding on how to get that guy, and if you can't get him, figuring out how to forget about the guy (traditional, alternative, medicinal...illegal means apply). So here's what I'm thinking this year:
  • I refuse to believe that Joseph Addai or Maurice Jones-Drew are worth taking in the first round, and they're going to have to do a hell of a lot to convince me otherwise. Jones-Drew had a great year and scored a bunch of TDs, but he's not even the #1 guy on his own team. Remember, Fred Taylor is still there, and although Taylor has gotten hurt quite a bit in his past, with his reduced workload, his exposure and risk to injury has gone down significantly. I would say Drew is a solid third-rounder at best. Addai really bothers me being listed so high. A guy has 1,000 yards his rookie year, and all of a sudden, he's the sixth best back in the league? "I'm not so sure about that." Addai is a good young back, but taking him in the first round is ridiculous. He could have a huge year, but I just don't see that kind of potential. Also, bare in mind he had more than half of his TDs in one game (4 of his 7 came against Philly) and just two 100-yard games (Philly and Houston). His 4.8 yard average was impressive, but he doesn't have any game-breaking abilities for me to want to build my fantasy team around.
  • The amount of actual good tight ends in terms of fantasy value is at an all-time low. It's down to about four guys who you can rely on to get a decent amount of points each week (Gates, Gonzalez, Heap, Cooley). The word out of camp is that Cooley is looking real good this year, and with Jason Campbell still technically a rookie considering he only started half the games last year, look for Cooley to have a big year, and perhaps, jump into #2 as far as TE scoring.
  • Stay away from Patriots receivers. This should be a given every year, but it is especially true this year. Because the ball is going to be thrown to so many different receivers, there is only one member of the passing attack worth drafting early on, and that's Tom Brady, who is poised to have a Manning-like season considering the weapons he has around him, and the fact that this will be Laurence Maroney's first full season as the featured back in the system. Although the Pats are confident in Maroney's abilities, I still think they will delay the notion of running him 350 times a year. This means that the Pats will rely on Brady perhaps more than they ever have to move the ball down the field. Brady is going to have huge numbers this year, so drafting him in the second round is not completely out of the question.
  • Jump on the Travis Henry bandwagon while you can. Right now, some have Henry in the top 10 overall, which is not a stretch at all. This is Henry's seventh year in the NFL, and when healthy, is one of the most consistent backs in the league. When Henry has started at least 13 games (three out of six years), he has rushed for 1,000 yards and averaged at least four yards a carry. Last year, Henry rushed for 1,211 yards and had a 4.5 yard average, a career best. Now, Henry goes to Denver, where gaining 1,000 yards on the ground is the absolute bare minimum. Also, consider that Jay Cutler is in a Jason Campbell-like situation, as he only started five games last year, so Henry will be relied on early and often to boost the offense. The competition for Henry's job is weak, so if he remains healthy, expect a giant year from Henry in the sunshine state (Old School reference).
  • If Tom Brady is off the board, and you still need a starting QB, fear not, because quarterback is actually the deepest position in the draft. Consider a guy like Matt Leinart, who, in his first year, threw for over 2,500 yards, is ranked aorund 15th by most sites. Quarterbacks are going to be available in the late rounds, and although they won't get you Manning-like numbers, they will be able to keep you in the game. Guys like Leinart, Vince Young, Jay Cutler, and Steve McNair are going to be there in the late rounds, and although there are more attractive options at the position, the focus should be on skill positions once Manning, Brady, and Carson Palmer are off the board.
  • I would only go after one rookie this year, and that's Calvin Johnson, receiver from the Lions. Johnson potentially could get 1,000 yards this season, and has been a dynamic force in mini-camp, meaning he'll likely line up opposite Roy Williams on opening day. Other than that, it's all a wait-and-see. After Week 1, fantasy owners comb through the waiver wire and the free agent list, looking for the "next big thing" that no one knew about. The trick is to somehow determine if the first week's performance was an actual portrayal of what a player's season might be like, or if it was simply a fluke. Flukes are especially tricky, because in most cases, once you find out a player can't hack it for an entire season, it's usually too late, and the guy you got rid of to pick up the one-hit wonder probably got gobbled up by another owner. A good way to gauge if a guy's big week is indicative of things to come is to look at what he did in college. Look at a guy like Marques Colston from last year. I saw that he had great numbers at Hofstra (career highs in receptions and yards), so decided to take a chance on the guy considering I was weak at TE, I decided to take a chance on him, and he came through in a big way. Again, I caution you when thinking about taking a guy after a solid first week. If his background goes along with the numbers he is putting up, then the mystery will be a little less hazy.
Well, I hope you enjoyed that small glimpse into what you will expect from me as far as fantasy football coverage. This is something I'm really passionate about, so expect a lot of in-depth coverage in the coming months that will help you prepare for your draft in July or August. Thanks for reading. Peace.

~Mell-o

Friday, June 22, 2007

Ranking The Drafts

"Toker's dream if I ever did see one."

Alright, so I'm doing what every young adult does on Friday night...watching the NHL Draft! Oh yeah! Hey, you know what, actually, I love any draft I can get. I watched the Major League Lacrosse draft the other day on ESPNU and was riveted...riveted I say! Anyway, while I'm watching this, I thought "I wonder which draft is the best in an overall sense?" Now, again, this is my opinion, and it's ok to disagree and send hate mail...no worries. Anyway, let's rank the drafts:
  1. NHL Draft: Ok, a little surprising for the NHL to be on top of any list, but let me explain this one. First of all, this is the only draft that is conducted at a different stadium each year. I think this is crucial, and something the NBA used to do, but now, it seems like they've landed on the Theater at Madison Square Garden as their home. There is no "green room" that the prospects hide in backstage, instead, they sit out amongst the fans in the seats with the fans. How great is that? You could be rubbing shoulders with the next Bobby Orr! (I mean, no one's going to be like #4, but for reference sake). The process itself takes about two minutes in between picks. The names are announced, they're on stage, they get interviewed, and we're onto the next pick. When a guy gets drafted, the perks already start. First, bodyguards escort you to the stage...nice. Second, a guy comes to take your jacket before you climb the stairs...very nice. Finally, you get a hat, sweater, and a photo op with the entire front office. Usually, the commish is the only guy on stage, and he also is the one calling out the picks, which is not true in the NHL, as a team representative (Cam Neely for the Bruins!...Cam Neely!!!) calls out the pick for the team. In all honesty, if Bettman were up there for more than five consecutive minutes, people would start throwing rocks and bottle rockets at him, so maybe this is a safety precaution after all. When the team rep gets on the mic, he simply doesn't say the name. He thanks the host city and their fans for their hospitality. They could be in Philadelphia, and teams would still be thanking the fans for their hospitality. See, this is lacking in the world...gratitude...oh well, just wanted to point that out Finally, every team has a "runner," which in this case is a seven-year old kid who is decked out in that team's gear...priceless. The NHL just does it right on basically all fronts. The only bad characteristic is that it is broadcasted on Vs., which only about half of Americans get. But, when you consider that no one really cares about hockey in this country, and that it's broadcasted on TSN in Canada, which every Canadian gets, what's the difference?
  2. NFL Draft: Easily the best formatted sports programming since putting balls and strikes in the upper corner. The on-screen format is so good that it has translated onto PTI, the NBA Draft, the MLB Draft, and currently, SportsCenter. ESPN had the idea to make sure people knew what was coming up, and at the same time, give them background info on each of the teams in the Draft. Also, the sheer volume of time given to the Draft, which is basically an entire weekend, easily makes it the most watched draft in this country. If this list was based on interest alone, the NFL would be #1, and I wouldn't even bother listing anything else, because it wouldn't be close. In terms of analysis, there's too much in my opinion, especially about quarterbacks. I actually started rooting for Brady Quinn to get picked just so they would stop talking about him, but even an hour after he was drafted...they were still talking about him! Enough already! Also, a huge minus is the absolute smugness of the teams and the league to take every single second of time in the first round to make a pick. JaMarcus Russell was clearly going #1, and yet it took the Raiders eleven minutes (as correctly predicted by me) to make the pick! What, were they fielding offers? Let me say this: They were on the clock for about five months (or since whenever they hired Art Shell), so I'm not about to believe that they needed eleven minutes on draft day to field offers.
  3. MLB Draft: The key word is simplicity. This was the first year the MLB Draft was on TV, and ESPN did a decent job in their coverage. However, there are definitely some things to improve on (more on that later), but it really is a fascinating process once you get it going. Think about it: The first day consists of five rounds and lasts about eight hours. The second day consists of 45 rounds and lasts about the same amount of time. You want to talk about rapid fire? I don't even know how they do it? It seems like a pick comes in the second day every ten seconds. Really an amazing process.
  4. NBA Draft: Ah yes, the gold standard of how to do everything wrong. The one thing I will say is that, like the MLB and the NHL, there is a manual draft board in the background, which I do like. Other than that, this thing is a train wreck.
Ok, I only did the four major sports, because it really wouldn't even be fair to put any other leagues in here. Consider this: the WNBA Draft is conducted in the same room as the NBA Lottery. So, you know the rankings, and now, here are some things to perhaps enhance the draft experience for each league:
  • NHL: First, you need to get this on ESPN2, or Fox Sports Net, or some channel that a larger majority of Americans actually get a chance to watch. This killed the NHL, and continues to do so in the regular season and the postseason, especially the Stanley Cup Finals, where a couple of the beginning games were on Vs. Look, I know that the money may not be out there like it once was, but the NHL is going to have to bite the bullet at some point and put the finals on regular TV for a discount. The Cup Finals this year, although it didn't last very long, was still a great display of hockey, and a thing to note was that there were only three European players on Anaheim's team, meaning that there are a lot more Americans and, yes, Canadians, that the league can market for the sport. However, if events like the draft continue to be shown on Vs., then the NHL won't likely be producing the number of new fans that it could possibly be producing.
  • NFL: Look, I love the NFL Draft perhaps more than anyone else, sad but true (you know it's sad but true, dum da-da-da-da...first Metallica reference!), but there's so much even I can stand. So, please, I'm begging you, clean it up a little. The most obvious thing to do is slash the amount of time for each pick. I know that ESPN makes some serious bank off of the draft, but really, how many are left at the end of the third round on Day 1, and further, how many are there for any of Day 2? Here's what I'm thinking: 10 minutes in round one, five minutes for rounds two and three, and three minutes for rounds four through seven. If every team took every second for every pick, and throw in some supplementary picks, the whole thing would take 17 1/2 hours. Now, compare that to what it looks like now. First of all, the whole thing takes approximately 16 hours to begin with, and when you lay down the "take all the time you can" formula, it would take over 24 hours. So, by comparison, you're cutting down the draft time by about three-to-four hours. Also, can we get the actual GMs and head coaches in earlier than the second day? I know that they are definitely under the gun on Day One, but I think they have enough time for a two-minute interview. I would just like to hear from someone who actually knows why they choose who they did, and not some analyst who does his best to speculate what that team is thinking. This is why they made the NFL Network...that's all they do. So, a little truth mixed into the rumors would be much appreciated. In terms of moving the first round to primetime, I am completely against it. To me, that Saturday afternoon start is an institution. Also, what good what it do to put the draft on Friday night? Isn't that where shows go to die? I've never heard of anyone saying that a Friday night time-slot was cushy or anything (except of course the T.G.I.F. days with Boy Meets World and Step by Step...now that worked). Also, I am much happier spending seven hours on a Saturday afternoon watching than I would be on Friday night because, in all seriousness, this thing kind of takes me hostage, and I would much rather be "held" basically any other time but Friday night.
  • MLB: See, now this one I like because it's like drawing on a blank canvas. ESPN was a step above local access on their coverage. I mean you couldn't possibly have been more stripped-down than that coverage was. So, there are a lot of things that ESPN can do for next year. First, when you have a draft, you need a crowd. Now, I think there were a couple people in attendance, but for the "national pastime," I shouldn't be able to count the number of people there on my fingers. Here's my solution: Conduct the draft in Cooperstown at the Hall of Fame. Sure, Lake Buena Vista is nice, but still, it's June...isn't it a little too toasty down there? Up in Cooperstown, the only thing people really care about is baseball. The entire tourism board and the community live off of baseball, so why not capitalize on that? Second, when they are televising the draft, they need to broadcast all the way through the "sandwich" round. This will generally get you through about the top 50 picks in the draft, which I think is good because sometimes, a team will not have a first-rounder, and instead, is picking in the compensation round, much like what the Sox did this year. Third, they need to actually invite some of the players to show up and make an appearance at the draft. David Price was virtually the only guy who got face time this year, and he was at his house! Invite the top five or ten guys to come to the draft, and have a little presentation with club reps on stage when they get picked. I think that would be a nice touch. Again, this was just the first year that the MLB Draft was on TV, so I'm pretty sure there will be improvements next year.
  • NBA Draft: Ok, where to start? First, the "age" rule is stupid, and the lottery system is even worse, but I'll try and focus on the actual draft itself. In my opinion, TNT should get the draft by default just because of Charles Barkley. ESPN comes at you with Greg Anthony and Tim Legler, who try to make cute little off-hand jokes that don't go well at all, and that's followed by nervous laughter that makes everyone, even me, uncomfortable. Throw Stephen A. Smith in there, and you have a pretty volatile combination. Throughout the draft, the analysis comes in, and it really makes me question if a particular individual watches too much college at not enough NBA, or vice versa, because they seem to know way too much about a particular side, and not know anything about the other. See, a guy like Mel Kiper actually knows about NFL team needs and how well the NFL players are doing, so his knowledge is actually worth something. I love the expression "NBA size." What does that mean? You have to be a certain size to make it in the league? This couldn't be further from the truth. Look at T-Mac. He's came into the league an absolute string bean, but since he was drafted, he's up to 220 now, and one of the premier players in the game. So, the question isn't really about does he have NBA size, but rather, does he have NBA ability? If a guy is undersized, that is something that can be worked on. What can't be worked on is a guy's innate abilities and talents that he was born with. So, basically, the NBA needs to take a page from the NHL, because they only have two rounds to make a good impression, meaning that their moment in the spotlight is short, so the NBA may want to think about stepping it up and not continuing to be a doormat.
Have a good weekend everyone. Peace.

~Mell-o

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Show Me What You Got

"How can ya make love to a fella in a rush?
Pass me the keys to my truck."

So are the nerves kind of subsiding Red Sox Nation? Hello, we're still nine games up, and if tonight's score holds up (7-0 in the top of the third), then we'll be heading into the weekend series with the Padres with at least the same lead, if not, more. Due to the fact that I live down south, the number of unconcerned bi-partisans are a lot higher than they would be in say, oh I don't know, Cape Cod? Medfield? Dedham? In any event, countless people have asked me if I think the Sox can hang on (talk like I do, wear the stuff I wear, and put logo stickers from all four Boston teams, and even you can get stopped by complete strangers in mall parking lots!). First of all, they didn't confuse me for a New Yorker...nice. Ok, but anyway, for them to even ask that question to me is just a waste really. Do I think the Sox will hang on? Are you nuts? Look, I will say this: I submitted a rather large article about the recent success the Yanks have had, but understand something: In playing like .850 ball for the last three weeks, that has gotten the Yankees back 4 1/2 games, which is a pretty good run, and despite that, they are still nine games back. At this rate, if the Yankees continue to play where they lose once every six games, it will take them until around August to catch us, and let's face it, the Yankees have a good team...they're not nearly that good. I have absolutely no worries. Now, if the Sox start to come down with a flurry of injuries (knockin' on the wood that will eventually go in my fireplace), then what is there to be worried about? The team is only going to get better with time. Think of all of the prospects we have in the minors, and then think about all the great arms the Yanks have, like Phillip Hughes and...Phillip Hughes, who is suffering from a major arm injury. As the season wears on, tell me who you like in the stretch? If Lugo keeps stinking, we bench him and put Alex Cora at short. Any outfielder goes down, we have Wily Mo, who looks like he can actually hit an off-speed pitch now. We have depth everywhere! So, actually, I hope people do keep asking me that question...I enjoy when people think we can't outplay New York...

Oh yeah, we party it up big when it happens too...

Ok, so jumping ahead, the game just ended (at least in DVR land), and I have to say I was blown away by how good Tavarez looked tonight, and really, I can say that about the last couple of starts he's made. Since losing to Baltimore back on May 11, Tavarez has made seven starts, including going up against the Tigers, Yankees, and A's. In that time, Tavarez has gone 4-0 (team went 5-1), and during that time, recorded an ERA of 3.07, which lowered his season ERA from 6.60 to 4.50. Considering this was a guy who was probably projected to just be a "five inning" guy, Tavarez has pitched through seven innings on three occasions during this stretch, which has helped continue to give the 'pen some rest. I know in the past I had my doubts about Tavarez, but really, he just never looked right in a Sox uniform, and maybe I'm biased because he did pitch for the Cardinals in the '04 World Series, and oh by the way, he was the guy who gave up Bellhorn's winning homer in Game 1 of the Series too, so, yeah, I didn't really think the best move for the Sox was to bring in a guy who just gave up one of the biggest homers in Sox history. I mean, what if the Yankees started trying out Byung-Hyun Kim after they shelled him in the 2001 Series? Would Yankee fans be thinking "hey, this guy's got a great delivery, and he just saved 19 games, only blew four, and had a 2.64 ERA for his time as closer," or "are you kidding me? We just beat the bag out of this guy, and now you want him on this team? Bring me Cashman's head on a stick!" I'm going to go with the second one...maybe a little less devious, but still, the point remains that after you beat up a pitcher and rattle him, the first instinct shouldn't be "wow, he really blew that one...let's give him a two-year contract." Anyway, I've done some Julian bashing in the past because, well, he deserved it. And yes, I still don't think he looks right in a Sox jersey, but what can be said is that the Sox were not looking for a superstar in the five-spot, they simply needed someone to eat up some innings while the team attempted to rehab some injuries (most notably Jon Lester) and give more time to some of their young guns (Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, and a few others) so they will have more innings under their belt when they make their inevitable stop on Yawkey Way.

There's pros and cons about gaining exposure, but I'm going to go straight into the biggest con: The more people you write for, the more often they will find mistakes, and that just never looks good. Don't get me wrong, I love that people are reading my stuff, it's just that you have to be a lot more careful about what you say, because now, I'm subject to a lot more scrutiny than using the wrong form of "legitimate." Anyway, recently, in my Asante Samuel piece, I wrote about how Tory James may have problems slipping and sliding on the grass, which would probably have been a decent observation if...well, ya know, they still played on grass. For some reason, I had a mental breakdown, and forgot about the switch to Field Turf last year right before the Bears' game, and thus, looked like a bafoon. I will say this right now: I am very opinionated, but every article that I write, I make sure to use as much factual information as possible. In addition, I spend time looking 99% of this stuff up just so this kind of thing wouldn't happen. I guess it's because I keep re-thinking about all those games in the slop last year, and then just completely forgetting they actually did something about it. So, what can I say? I totally muffed that, and I'm really sorry. I still assure you that if you read this page, you're going to get facts, and you're going to get opinions, but I am going to do everything in my power not to confuse the two.

Sorry to end with a public service announcement of sorts, but I don't want any first-time readers to think I'm some "hack" who knows nothing and is talking out of my...lack of knowledge (ESPNews ad reference there). I just want to keep spreading this to a lot of people, because I know there are a lot of people who really like reading this, and I don't want to scare off newcomers because of a lack of focus on my part. Anyway, I appreciate you guys spending time with me again. Be safe out there. Peace.

~Mell-o

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

You Got That Right

"When my time's up, I'll hold my own
You won't find me in an old folks' home."

Thanks for stopping by. In today's installment, I'm going to branch out all over the place, so hopefully there's something here that you will be able to enjoy.

With the NHL Draft coming up on Friday (I'm still holding on), this calls for a Mock Draft. No, I basically don't know any of these guys, but from gathering up team needs and looking at some top prospect lists, I think I have a pretty good handle on it...just trust me on this one:
  1. Chicago - Patrick Kane, RW, London (OHL)
  2. Philadelphia- Kyle Turris, C, Burnaby (BCHL)
  3. Phoenix- James Van Riemsdyk, LW, USA U-18
  4. Los Angeles- Karl Alzner, D, Calgary (WHL)
  5. Washington- Alexei Cherepanov, RW, Omsk (RUS)
  6. Edmonton- Jakub Voracek, RW, Halifax (QMJHL)
  7. Columbus- Sam Gagner, RW, London (OHL)
  8. Boston- Keaton Ellerby, D, Kamloops (WHL)
  9. St. Louis- Angelo Esposito, C, Quebec (QMJHL)
  10. Florida- Brandon Sutter, C, Red Deer (WHL)
  11. Carolina- Logan Couture, C, Ottawa (OHL)
  12. Montreal- Ryan McDonagh, D, Cretin-Derham HS (MN)
  13. Toronto- Kevin Shattenkirk, D, USA U-18
  14. Colorado- Thomas Hickey, D, Seattle (WHL)
  15. Edmonton- Mikael Backlund, C, Vasteras (SWE)
  16. Anaheim- Nick Petrecki, D, Omaha (USHL)
  17. New York Rangers- Zach Hamill, C, Everett (WHL)
  18. Calgary- David Perron, LW, Lewiston (QMJHL)
  19. Minnesota- Tommy Cross, D, Westminster HS (CT)
  20. Pittsburgh- Brett MacLean, LW, Oshawa (OHL)
  21. Phoenix- Colton Gillies, C, Saskatoon (WHL)
  22. Montreal- Lars Eller, C, Frolunda (SWE)
  23. Philadelphia- Bill Sweatt, LW, Colorado College
  24. St. Louis- Max Pacioretty, LW, Sioux City (USHL)
  25. Vancouver- Logan MacMillan, C, Halifax (QMJHL)
  26. St. Louis- Maxim Mayorov, LW, Almetievsk (RUS)
  27. Detroit- Oscar Moller, C, Chilliwack (WHL)
  28. Washington- John Blum, D, Vancouver (WHL)
  29. Ottawa- Akim Aliu, RW, London (OHL)
  30. Edmonton- Brendan Smith, D, St. Michael's (OPJHL)
Speaking of drafts, the NBA's version (whose popularity I'm guessing somewhat outweighs the NHL's) comes up in two weeks, and rumors are abound about some big names that could be getting moved around, picks being swapped, and names moving up and down the draft board. Here's what's hot right now:

Of course we have to start with your Boston Celtics, who have been in the news a lot this off-season. First with the lottery, then in potential trades for Shawn Marion and Rashard Lewis (although Lewis is technically a free agent, the Celts could go into what's known as a "sign-and-trade" agreement, whereby Team A, represented in this case by the Sonics, agrees to re-sign one of their free agents, Lewis, to a deal that has already been agreed upon with Team B, the Celtics; in turn, the Celtics would trade player(s) and/or draft pick(s) to Seattle for Lewis; the reason this is done is because the Celtics currently do not have enough cap room to keep all their players and sign Lewis, so they would need to move some money around, which benefits the Sonics, because instead of getting nothing, they will likely get expiring contracts, and up-and-coming player, and a high draft pick), and now, in what is perhaps the biggest rumor yet, the C's have been thinking about moving Paul Pierce. Here's how I feel about this: If they don't have a back-up plan, or some kind of auxiliary move that they will pull off to replace Pierce's veteran leadership, then this is stupid. Sure, the guy is making a ton of money (signed a 3-year, $59 million extension, keeping him in Boston until the 2010-2011 season), but he has been a proven leader and a motivator. Simply put, the guy just needs a running partner to take some of the heat off of him. Were the Celtics anywhere close to being "great" when they reached the '03 East Finals? Absolutely not, but Pierce was not chucking 35-40 shots a game, because he knew he could count on Antoine Walker to handle some of the load, which gave Pierce a comfort level that he has not been able to get back to since Walker's departure. So now, we're going from getting Oden or Durant, to Marion or Lewis, to trading Paul Pierce. Please tell me there is something else in the works and that we're not going to give up on this season too. So, in saying all this, I'm going to lay out two scenarios: One trading Pierce, and one keeping him. Again, I'm not writing for "Insider" here, but I think that most of this is logical:
  • Trade Paul Pierce:
  • Paul Pierce ($15.1 million, five years remaining) and a second-round pick in the 2008 Draft to Utah for Derek Fisher ($5.88 million, four), Mehmet Okur ($8.25 million, four) and the 25th overall selection in the 2007 Draft.
  • Derek Fisher covers your leadership, even though he is likely coming in off the bench, Okur gives them a guy with remarkable flexibility, being able to play down low and shoot threes, and the C's also had on another first-rounder to a pretty deep draft, a draft in which the C's possess three of the first 32 picks (picking second overall in the second round).
  • In Pierce, the Jazz will get the scorer they lacked in their horrific series against the Spurs in the West Finals. Also, it puts much less pressure on Deron Williams, who will only be entering his third year next year. Williams was called upon to not only distribute, but put the ball in the hole, and there are very few guys who can do that and have their team be successful (Nash, Kidd, James...a little bit of Kobe). The Jazz also have a bunch of big men, and in limited action, Paul Millsap, entering just his second season, has showed that he has the ability to hang with Boozer and Kirilenko, again establishing a great front-court.
  • Let's say, to avoid complications, that the Celts keep both of their first rounders. At #5, the C's take either Jeff Green, Corey Brewer or Al Thornton (of course I'm obsessed with Thornton, but I have heard Doc is favoring Green, mainly because Green and Doc's son both played for the Hoyas together). This will cover up their hole at small forward/shooting guard. Then, with the 25th pick, I would expect the C's to draft a big man. I like both Nick Fazekas, 6-11 forward from Nevada, and Aaron Gray, a 7-1 center from Pittsburgh. If they play their cards right, the Celts could get both of them. Imagine boosting your front-court to go from the weakness of the team to the strength. In addition, you get two guys who both graduated college, meaning they will be able to get into the flow of the game a lot easier than an underclassman, and they will not be under any pressure, barring injuries, in terms of being heavily relied on for this season. Al Jefferson becomes a free agent in '08, and although I would be devastated to see him go (wearing his jersey as I type this), you have to face facts that Jefferson, a legitimate double-double a night big man, will be commanding a lot of money once he hits the market. So you add depth now for the present, and an insurance policy for the future.
  • Don't Trade Paul Pierce:
  • Move I: Celtics trade Delonte West ($1.08 million, two years remaining) and Wally Szczerbiak ($11.78 million, three) to Indiana for Ike Diogu ($2.14 million, two) and Troy Murphy ($8.29 million, five)
  • Ok, obviously this is not the high-profile trade Celtic fans have been clamoring for, but what it does do is add size to the lineup. Diogu is a fiend on the boards, and has been that way since he was in college (Arizona St.). I think Troy Murphy has been given a bad rap, and since he was traded to Indiana, it seems like he may get lost in the shuffle along the way. Basically, you're looking at a guy whose 6'11 who can shoot 18-foot jumpers with regularity. The reason this trade would be appealing to the Pacers is that they really don't have an established scorer like Szczerbiak in their lineup, and even though they acquired Dunleavy from Golden State along with Murphy last year. Also, Danny Granger will get bumped to power forward, where he can be more effective given his frame. However, all of this is dependent on if the Pacers decide to move Jermaine O'Neal, which is a very real possibility, but for now, I'll keep this one on the board.
  • Move II: Celtics trade the 5th overall pick in this year's Draft to Philadelphia for their 21st and 30th picks this year, and a future second-rounder.
  • It's clear that the Celts are not sold on Yi Jianlian, and even if they are, they may not even get a chance to take him. One team that will be interested in moving up is Philadelphia, who own three first-rounders this year. They have been rumored to be trying to do what they can to move up the draft board to draft Yi, as they are in desperate need of a big man, as Samuel Dalembert's effectiveness has been brought into question.
  • This move would require a long-term commitment to Al Jefferson, which is what they should do regardless in my opinion. Why let one of the most talented young big men in the game walk? Isn't this what the Celts have wanted all along? A big man in the middle who can get you a double-double a game and be a dominating presence? Well, here you go. In terms of point guard, Rondo would replace West, which would give you a lineup of Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Murphy, Jefferson, with Gomes, Green, Diogu, and Perkins coming in off the bench. The C's should then focus on adding depth to their guard spots with their late first-rounders. First, at point guard, Gabe Pruitt from Southern Cal and Taurean Green from Florida are intriguing options, while at shooting guard, you're looking at Daequan Cook from Ohio St. and Aaron Afflalo. Sure, their are international prospects that will be available here, but for me, it just seems safer to draft a guy who is used to the American game.
So while the Pierce/Marion/Garnett rumors are abound, take these two different positions the Celts could take. I'm not saying that, if they were proposed, they would be accepted, but still, it's something to think about. Really, the Celts do have some pieces that could become attractive commodities to other teams, but there are four guys they cannot afford to move: Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, and Rajon Rondo. After that, I really think it's all up-for-grabs, especially Wally and Ratliff due to their ridiculously large contracts which are holding the team in cap handcuffs right now.

Well, I wanted to talk about more, but it took me so long just to do this that I think I'll hold off until next time. Take care everyone. Peace.

~Mell-o

Sunday, June 17, 2007

I'm On My Way

"Man we were killin' time
We were young and restless
We needed to unwind
I guess nothing can last forever."

Alright, before I recap the U.S. Open, I figured it was time to put my knowledge to the test. Earlier this year, after all free agents had signed on with their respective teams, I listed the 15 best and worst free agent signings. So, let's see how I did shall we?:

Best Moves:
  1. David Dellucci (CLE): .237, 4 HR, 19 RBIs, 25 Runs (Miss)
  2. Joe Borowski (CLE): 19 saves, 6.58 ERA (Hit Even With The High ERA)
  3. Jay Payton (BAL): .276, 1 HR, 23 RBIs, 20 Runs (Ehh...Ok I'll Give Myself A Miss)
  4. Hideki Okajima (BOS): 30 Appearances, 1.07 ERA, 30 K's (Big Time Hit)
  5. Justin Speier (ANA): 15 Appearances, 1.69 ERA, 17 K's (Hit)
  6. Mike Mussina (NYY): 3-3, 5.17 ERA, 1.31 WHIP (Tough One...1/2?...It's My Game Show!)
  7. Mike Piazza (OAK): Season-Ending Injury After 26 Games (Miss)
  8. Jose Guillen (SEA): .261, 9 HR, 40 RBIs, 35 Runs (Hit)
  9. Eric Gagne (TEX): 18 Appearances, 7 Saves, 0.53 ERA (Hit)
  10. Mark DeRosa (CHC): .277, 6 HR, 31 RBIs, 23 Runs (1/2)
  11. Alex Gonzalez (CIN): .264, 12 HR, 30 RBIs, 34 Runs (Hit)
  12. Randy Wolf (LA): 8-5, 4.24 ERA, 84 K's, 1.36 WHIP (1/2)
  13. Kip Wells (STL): 2-11, 6.93 ERA, 42 BBs (Jeesh)
  14. Marcus Giles (SD): .263, 3 HR, 24 RBIs, 7 SB, 39 Runs (1/2)
  15. Pedro Feliz (SF): .255, 9 HR, 30 RBIs, 24 Runs (1/2)
Worst Moves:
  1. Danys Baez (BAL): 31 Appearances, 6.52 ERA, 1.48 WHIP (Hit)
  2. Aubrey Huff (BAL): .276, 4 HR, 32 RBIs, 22 Runs (1/2)
  3. Julio Lugo (BOS): .207, 4 HR, 34 RBIs, 19 SBs, 32 Runs (1/2 Only Because Of The SBs)
  4. Gil Meche (KC): 4-6, 3.00 ERA, 71 K's, 1.25 WHIP (Miss)
  5. Gary Matthews, Jr. (ANA): .282, 10 HR, 41 RBIs, 11 SBs, 44 Runs (Miss)
  6. Andy Pettitte (NYY): 4-4, 2.93 ERA, 50 K's, 1.27 WHIP (Miss)
  7. Vincente Padilla (TEX): 3-8, 6.57 ERA, 42 K's, 1.74 WHIP (Hit)
  8. Gregg Zaun (TOR): .186, 1 HR, 11 RBIs, 5 Runs (Hit)
  9. Ted Lilly (CHC): 5-4, 3.69 ERA, 72 K's, 1.05 WHIP (Miss)
  10. Jason Marquis (CHC): 5-3, 3.14 ERA, 46 K's, 1.19 WHIP (Miss)
  11. Juan Pierre (LA): .278, 0 HR, 14 RBIs, 20 SBs, 36 Runs (1/2)
  12. Jeff Suppan (MIL): 7-7, 4.69 ERA, 43 K's, 1.46 WHIP (Hit)
  13. Adam Eaton (PHI): 7-4, 5.33 ERA, 52 K's, 1.49 WHIP (Hit)
  14. Moises Alou (NYM): .318, 2 HR, 13 RBIs, 15 Runs, 30 Games (Hit)
  15. Barry Zito (SF): 6-7, 4.41 ERA, 51 K's, 1.42 WHIP (Hit)
Overall: 13-9-8

Not too bad. Also, consider that my good move/bad move was based on salary too, and the hit/miss is only by the numbers. Seriously, if I threw salaries in there, would Julio Lugo get 1/2?

Angel Cabrera is your 2007 U.S. Open champion, and it was a bit of a surprise to me. Cabrera did have the 36-hole lead, but it's rare to see someone have a lead, then on Saturday, struggle a bit (76, +4), and then come back with a brilliant round on Sunday (69, -1) to win a tournament, let alone the U.S. Open. Despite Cabrera winning, the big story was Tiger Woods once again not being able to come from behind in a major on Sunday. This is now the 29th time in which Tiger has been trailing going into the final round, and not being able to climb up to the top spot. It's very easy to break this down if you think about it. Tiger has a comfort level when he's on top. He knows that he is the best player in the world, and that once he has a lead, the players behind him are going to start doing stupid things to try and catch him, and in the end, Tiger ends up shooting a relatively respectable round, and he wins (in the 12 majors Tiger has led going into the final round, all of which he's won, Tiger's average score is 2.67 under par, so right around a 69 or 70...his best final round ever was 67, which he did twice). However, if Tiger needs to come from behind, it has a reverse effect on him. Because he is under so much pressure not only from the golfing community, but more so himself, to win majors and to break Jack's record of 18 majors won, he is unable to really relax and focus on his game as his focus seems to wander to the scoreboard, and what kind of number he has to post to win. Will Tiger ever win a major from behind? Perhaps, but as of right now, the 0-29 stat is basically the only chink in Tiger's armor that anyone knows of.

So I'm watching the Sox game right now, and I feel like I want to jam a spike through my forehead. Ok, first of all, why is it that so many Boston/Atlanta games are on national TV? The Braves are already on TBS all the time, and down here, they're on like five different stations. Look, the Sox are blacked out on NESN all the time, so give me something for crying out loud! But no, all I see are Yankees and Mets games...unreal. Ok, getting back to the spike through the forehead comment, is Dusty Baker attempting to challenge Tim McCarver for "announcer that is reminiscent of nails on a chalkboard" award? I'll say this: I would probably be terrible in the booth right now, and Dusty may know a lot more about baseball than I do, but he is just terrible in his analysis. On two occasions already (writing in the bottom of the 2nd), the play-by-play guy had to step in because Baker couldn't finish his thought, or perhaps did not know how to end whatever it was he was talking about. Sutcliffe is not too far behind. He's said the words "winning baseball" ten times. Also, there has been some talk about Chuck James not being "overpowering" and being a "contact" pitcher. Ok, well there are very few times in the history of baseball when a guy that hits 95 MPH on the gun can be described, or sets out to be, a "contact" pitcher. See, usually, when a guy throws that hard, and also had a .285 average against, he's going to want to slow down on the contact. I'm sorry, I'm just frustrated that this game is on ESPN...where are the Sox/D-Ray games?

So Pac Man Jones needs to set up a "boom boom" room like Big Boi has (classic episode of "Cribs") because he seems to be addicted to strip clubs. Also, his crew seems to be addicted to causing maylays at these clubs, because every time he goes out, someone always has to break out a gun and ruin everyone's good time. So, considering he possibly could get kicked out of the league if he continues his questionable behavior, why doesn't he just bring the party to his place? He can invite whoever he wants to, which means there will be less chance of someone potentially becoming a target. Also, he gets his selection of girls, meaning that he can forewarn them to not touch the money when he "makes it rain." This just makes way too much sense though, so that won't really jive with Jones, who went to a strip club in New York before his appeal hearing about an incident at a strip club in Vegas, then celebrates his recent year-long suspension...by going to a strip club of course! Also, here's a thought: Is there any chance you can leave the guns at home? Hey, if you get drunk, and start talking some trash, the worst that could happen is someone gets a black eye, which from my understanding would probably be a lot better than a gunshot wound.

Alright, well I'm gonna go watch the game, which could be played in Boston for all I know. Seriously, Brave fans, get out and support your team. I'm all about Red Sox Nation and showing the pride, but this is ridiculous. We're talking like a 65/35 ratio here. Alright, have a good night everyone. Peace.

~Mell-o

For My Pops


I don't know if he'll like this article at all, but this one is dedicated to my Dad. He's always there for me, even when I screw up, which is probably a lot more than he would like. Anyway, my Dad is someone I have always looked up to because, well, he's just the man. I mean, how else can I explain it? Anyway, Dad, if you're reading this, thanks for always being there for me, and being the best Dad a kid could ever have. Love ya pops.

Is Hallmark still taking submissions?

So, it is Father's Day today, which means today is the final round of the U.S. Open. Oakmont, as predicted, has tore most guys apart. Going into Sunday, there are exactly zero golfers in red figures. The cut line to make the weekend was 10 over, so you know the conditions were calling for players to do anything they could just to salvage an occasional par. Here's something else I found strange: When looking at the leaderboard going into today, four of the top five are not from the U.S. (Aaron Baddeley from Australia, Stephen Ames from Canada, and Paul Casey and Justin Rose from England), with the obvious exception being Tiger Woods, who once again finds himself in the final pairing of a major. Tiger, who won both the British and the PGA last year, will be looking to win his 13th professional major, which would put him just five behind Jack Nicklaus' all-time record. He starts off today two shots behind Baddeley, and after a very impressive round on Saturday (-1, 17/18 greens in regulation), Woods will be looking to ride some of that momentum into today's round. Everything is set up for Tiger to win this tournament. Not trying to take anything away from the players in contention, but with Tiger near the top of the board, it will take an effort from somebody that, frankly, I don't think anyone has in them. The real story will be how far Baddeley drops today, because in the past, Tiger has regularly spooked whoever he's playing with. Here's the last two instances of this occurring:

2007 Masters 1 2 3 4 TOTAL
STARTED ENDED
Stuart Appleby 75 70 73 75 293
1st T-7th
Tiger 73 74 72 72 291
2nd T-2nd









2006 PGA Championship:





Luke Donald 68 68 66 74 276
2nd T-3rd
Tiger 69 68 65 68 270
1st 1st

Just a small sampling of the way Tiger can get into the opposition's head. What's even more interesting is that Baddeley is on record welcoming the challenge of playing with Tiger. I appreciate the guy's heart, but I question the reasoning behind his comments. First off, if history says anything, it will be a "major" struggle, literally and figuratively, for Baddeley to even stay in the hunt today. Secondly, as if he needed any motivation, wouldn't those words perhaps ignite a bit of spark in Tiger? You have a guy that comes out and says that he believes his game is good enough to beat Tiger on Sunday? I can't really understand the motive behind it all. Maybe it's an attempt to psych himself up, but let's be real for a moment. This is Tiger Woods...on Sunday...against Aaron Baddeley. Let me say something right now: If Baddeley wins this tournament, then never listen to anything I say again. No, seriously, if Baddeley wins, then everything I've ever said is just a big, huge fabrication of the truth. He's a good player and all...he just doesn't have a chance in the world.

Ken Griffey, Jr. is having an amazing year, and yet no one really seems to be paying attention. Has there ever been a player who has fallen as far from the public eye, yet still plays as well as Griffey has? No one is coming to me at the moment, but think about it for a second. Griffey was the most popular player in the game for years while he was with Seattle. People were saying that he would crush Hank Aaron's home run record, and even one of the better sports video games ever had his name on it (sure the players' names were fake, but what other game can you hit a 600 foot homer in?). Then, in an astonishing turn of events, Griffey was traded to the Reds, and once the injuries started, and the Reds became perennial cellar-dwellers in the NL Central, Griffey, by all accounts, had fallen out of favor in terms of popularity. The comparisons to Aaron and Willie Mays were gone, and Junior slipped into the ranks of mediocrity it seemed.
He has played more than 100 games just four times in the seven years he's been with Cincy, and even with that, Junior belted career home runs #580 and #581 in the Reds' 8-4 win over the Rangers. Of course, when you think about it, invariably, you will start to wonder "what if?" about a lot of things. What if he had never gotten traded? What if he played in even half of those games he missed? But for now, take a second to appreciate this guy's accomplishments not only for his career, but for the season he's having right now. Junior comes into today's game second in the NL in home runs with 18, and an OPS just under 1 (.962). Griffey is 37 right now, and rumors have begun to swirl that the Reds may put Griffey on the block, and the White Sox have been a rumored location. This would be optimal for him, as he would be able to split his time between playing the outfield and being used as a DH, which would likely lengthen his sure-fire Hall of Fame career. If Griffey does end up in Chicago, and they do indeed utilize him in that capacity, expect Griffey to have another four or five good years left. Hopefully, he has found the cure for the injury bug once and for all, and can showcase the prettiest swing in the game for a good long time.

Today was brief, but I will be back either tonight or tomorrow to recap the Sox/Giants series. Until then, have a great Father's Day, and I love you Dad. Peace.

~Mell-o

Saturday, June 16, 2007

Answering The Asante Samuel Question

"Say a prayer for the pretender
Who
started out so young and strong
Only to surrender."

(note: Hey guys, this is another submission article. Hope you enjoy.)

With Samuel Holding Out, Pats Will Mix and Match To Get By

“What we have here is a failure to communicate.”

The Pats have been in well-publicized negotiations with disgruntled cornerback Asante Samuel, and so far, very little progress has been made. With Samuel threatening to skip mini-camp, and sit out the first ten games of the season, the Pats suddenly have a monstrous hole in their secondary, and if there is any weakness on this team, it has to be in the defensive backfield. So what are the Pats going to do in order to to keep their title hopes alive?

Ellis Hobbs seems to have the inside track to the #1 corner spot coming into the season. Hobbs will be entering his third season, and since being drafted in the third round of the ’05 Draft, Hobbs as shown that he has the ability to play very well when playing in pass defenses, and has also been able to be a reliable cover man when matched up one-on-one with outside receivers. However, it will be a tall task to cover the #1 receivers the Pats will be playing, particularly in their own division, with Lee Evans, Laveranues Coles, and Chris Chambers all being exceptional wide-outs and Pro Bowl candidates each year. Hobbs is also fairly undersized for his position, measuring in at 5’9, 190 pounds, so will trading bumps with a receiver like Chambers faze him? What is known is the fact that Hobbs has been trusted on in the past, and for the most part, he has been able to hold his own.

All along, the Patriots’ brass has felt that Samuel is somewhat a “product of the system,” and that paying him Nate Clements or Champ Bailey money simply would be too much a player to man a position that could be filled by someone else, again, because their system is so good that the Pats can put anyone in that opening and will be able to not only survive, but prosper. However, think back to the receiver position last year, and the personnel that were plugged in to replace the voids left by Deion Branch and David Givens. Although their plan worked out for the most part, in big games, it ended up being the difference between a win and a loss, especially true in the AFC Championship Game. Over the off-season, the Pats spent a ton of money to correct their receiver problem, but it seemed like the reinforcements came too late, and the damage was already done. So with all that being said, how can it be assumed that this won’t happen again this year at the corner position? Sure, Samuel could very well be a “product,” but even if he is, he has played so outstanding in the Pats’ defensive scheme that he has almost become an irreplaceable commodity. So although the Pats are unwilling to pay Samuel’s asking price (reportedly in the $10 million a year range), the cost that they may be taking on by letting him walk could grow exponentially by the week. So, that’s just something to keep in mind when looking at Hobbs, or whoever else could be replacing Samuel as their best shut-down corner.

In one of the more unheralded moves of this off-season for any team in the league, the Pats were able to go out and sign Tory James, who is two years removed from his Pro Bowl appearance with Cincinnati. Although the team claims that this was purely to add depth to the team, clearly there was a big gap between Samuel and the Patriots in terms of the contract talks, so the James move feels like a bit of an “insurance policy” to an outsider. In any event, what James brings to the table is someone who will, at the very least, compete for the opening that will likely be left by Samuel. James has recorded at least four interceptions in six straight seasons while playing for Oakland and the Bengals. In 2004, his Pro Bowl season, James had the best year of his career, recording 56 tackles and eight interceptions. However, something that may be overlooked is the fact that James has played on artificial turf for at least half of his games. When you consider that Gillette Stadium’s grass conditions are not always “pristine,” and that James will be entering his eleventh season in the league, there will probably be some concerns that James may not have the kind of pace needed to stay with the burners of the AFC East. However, throughout the Pats’ opening mini-camp, James has shown encouraging signs, so the grass may not be a factor. Still, it’s something to think about, and it will be interesting to see if James can adjust to the field, particularly when the track is slow.

Competing with James to line up opposite Hobbs will be Chad Scott and Randall Gay. Scott is the more experienced of the two, and like James, will be entering his eleventh season. Scott, unlike Hobbs, has the prototypical size of a shut-down corner, coming in at 6’1, 205 pounds. Scott ideally would be used in the slot to cover bigger receivers going over the middle, but because of the lack of corner depth, Scott could be used on the outside. Gay is entering his fourth season, but in his last two, he has played just eight games combined, being put on injured reserve twice for various leg injuries. Gay seems to be playing with a chip on his shoulder, as he was quoted as saying “I can say this, I’m the most anxious person for training camp. I’m about the only one here that’s ready for it to come.” Even though the depth is short, it’s likely Gay will only be used in nickel and dime passing formations in order to slowly get Gay back to “game speed.”

When talking about the safeties, the biggest question has to be the health of Rodney Harrison, who is coming off of a horrific leg injury that he suffered in the regular season finale against Tennessee, was unable to play in any of the three postseason games, and whose initial diagnosis had him missing a portion of the 2007 season. However, Harrison made a faster recovery than what was expected, and showed up to mini-camp close to full-strength. Clearly, this is a completely different defense without Harrison in the lineup, and although the Pats made it to the AFC Championship game, Peyton Manning and the Colts’ passing offense carved up the Pats’ secondary, particularly in the second half en route to their dramatic comeback victory. Harrison’s presence over the middle brings an intimidation factor that few defenders on New England, let alone the entire league, can bring to the table.

The other possible safety lining up with Harrison could be Eugene Wilson. Wilson, who is coming off a season where he missed the final ten games of the regular season and the playoffs with a hamstring injury, has been able to make a sizable impact in his first three full seasons, recording four interceptions in both ’03 and ’04 when Wilson was used at both safety and corner. Because of his versatility, there stands a chance that, if needed, he could be moved over to the cornerback position, making him an invaluable commodity given the current state of the backfield. While at Illinois, Wilson, who was used primarily at Illinois as a corner, still needs to grow into lining up on the outside in the NFL. Wilson is another guy who will need to be nurtured back into actual “game speed” slowly, and whether that means lining up at safety, or being used primarily in multiple corner sets remains to be seen.

While Rodney’s health is still somewhat in question, and Eugene still trying to get up to speed, the Pats were able to go out and get the talented Brandon Meriweather in the first round of the ’07 Draft. Sure, the former Miami Hurricane standout comes to the Patriots with a troubled past of off-the-field incidents, but what is not in question is his ability to produce on the football field. When mini-camp opened however, Meriweather was not present, and reports indicated that he is suffering from a minor hamstring injury. Judging from the past, the extent of the injury may never be known, as the Pats are excellent at keeping their injury report under tight wraps until the season rolls around. If he comes into the season at full strength, and is able to show the kind of play-making ability that made him the 24th overall selection this year, then there stands a chance that he could possibly replace Wilson as the starting free safety, or, if Harrison is unable to go, it will be a sure thing that Meriweather would be lining up in the strong safety position opposite Wilson for their opening game against the Jets.

With a lot of question marks entering the season, there is something that cannot be disputed. Having Asante Samuel on the field makes this unit, and the defense on a whole, better. However, the Pats are not going to break from their notion that the idea of giving Samuel a long-term deal, for the kind of money given to an elite corner, is going to put the total compensation of the contract at a much higher level than they are willing to go. It seems as though there is no resolution to this story in sight, and as long as Samuel and the Pats continue to remain true to their beliefs, then expect some of the names mentioned above to be called on to make a large contribution to the Pats’ run at a fourth title in seven years.

Thanks again for reading. Have a good weekend. Peace.

~Mell-o

Thursday, June 14, 2007

College Night Withdrawals

"Yeah send you off to college, try to gain a little knowledge
But all you learn to do is..."

It's Thursday night, and sure, I could be out and about right now, but I have to somehow try and maintain here for the moment, in hopes that there will be some kind of cash windfall coming my way so I can go back to my usual lifestyle. Anyway, so I'm here, and here we go:

Wimbledon just announced that they will implement a replay system for this year's tournament, with each side getting three challenges per set, and an additional challenge for a tiebreakers. To me, this is pretty much the first step to eliminating umpires all together from tennis. First, there will be replays and challenges, then there will be some kind of laser that goes off when a ball hits the line, and then, tennis will be run strictly by computers, and the human element will be completely eliminated from the decision-making process. If you think this will give way to other sports, more specifically baseball, adopting a replay policy, think again. Here's the thing about baseball: Sure, replays would be nice to challenge foul balls and determine whether a ball should be ruled a home run, but baseball has been trying to cut down on how much time an average game goes for, and this has been the biggest factor for why the attempt to bring replays in have repeatedly been shot down. Also, when you think about it, what else could possibly be challenged? In baseball, you could challenge whether a ball is fair or foul, but let's say that they do bring in replays, and a ball that was called foul is actually determined to be fair, what then? Are we going to grant hitters a certain amount of bases based on how far the ball went? See, this isn't going to work. Also, you will never be able to touch balls and strikes, because those calls are sacred, and is what makes baseball great. You can have a guy that calls a high strike one night, and have a guy whose zone is the size of a grape the next. The variation from night to night makes the game interesting, but there is not that kind of wiggle room in tennis. The ball is in, or it's not, and there are defined boundaries that determine those calls, so what is the point iWimbledon just announced that instant replay would be used in this year's tournament, with each combatant (oh yeah, this is serious business) getting three replays per set, including an extra if the set goes to a tie-break. While I will say that I'm not the most knowledgeable when it comes to tennis, I know a few things, so here's my take on this: To me, this is the first step ton having an umpire to begin with? I will say this: If baseball is thinking about some kind of replay system, they should consider doing it for a couple of things. The first, as I previously mentioned, would be to determine if a ball actually left the ballpark or if it didn't. If a home run is called, and it didn't happen, that would probably be ruled as a ground-rule double, and, of course, if a ball is determined to have left the park, then the batter would be awarded a home run. The second item is in terms of things that could be against the rules, like a runner running outside the bases, or a stuck-up third baseman slapping a ball out of a pitcher's glove, those kind of things. The final item would be if a runner is out or safe on a close call. They may end up limiting it to just plays at home, but even so, umpires are going to miss those calls, and sometimes, they come at critical points in the game, so having an extra set of eyes, or camera lens, would probably cut down on those mistakes. Again, baseball is a long way off from having any kind of replay system integrated into the game.

The Rockies just took two of three from the Sox, while the Yankees continued their winning ways, reeling off their ninth consecutive win, sweeping the D-Backs in the Bronx. So, if you weren't worried before, I think it's about time to start showing a little concern. The Rockies blasted off on the best two pitchers we have, and it's not as though the offense was picking up any of the slack. Really, since hitting the west-coast, the Sox have had no kind of spark, outside of their encounter against the D-Backs last Friday, when J.D. Drew had a career in one game, and they ended up scoring 10 runs. During their recent ten-game stretch, the Sox have gone 4-6 while being outscored 41-27, including scoring just five runs in their last three while playing the Rockies at home. So, now the question becomes "was that A-Rod homer off Pap really the thing that has changed the landscape of the East?" Well, yes and no. While that homer was huge and very dramatic, the fact remains that the Yankees were banged up through the first two months, and while they were able to play .500 ball against weaker opponents in the beginning, once they got to the meat of their schedule, they got absolutely crushed. So as soon as they started getting their starters back, and guys like Abreu and A-Rod starting hitting again, which was an inevitability, the Yanks started to get hot. The Yankees knew that they had to win two of three from the Sox, or else their season, even if it was only two months in the books, was going to be lost. So, they showed resolve, and were able to fight from being on the ropes to take the rubber game in that series, which has provided a spark that has yet to be extinguished by anyone. The Yanks will host the "Subway Series, Part II" this weekend, and will trot out Roger Clemens in the first game against Oliver Perez, who has gotten off to a surprising start, going 6-5 with a 3.21 ERA, but is coming off a bad start against Detroit, giving up five runs on seven hits over five innings. If the Yankees are able to somehow sweep the Metropolitans, then the time to become officially freaked out will be upon Red Sox Nation, especially if we continue our woeful ways against the G-Men, who are throwing out Barry Zito, Matt Cain, and Matt Morris, arguably their best three pitchers.

The NBA Finals finally came to a close tonight. I don't recall the last time so many people wanted this series to end purely just to show mercy to the Cavs, who were clearly dominated in all facets of every game. Again, it's true that it takes more than one to win a championship. The Spurs actually had three guys carry them along, with Tony Parker winning series MVP after shooting 58% from the field for the series. By comparison, LeBron shot under 40% and showed absolutely no technique or grace while he was on the floor. Instead, he figured that he would simply overpower the Spurs by bulling his way into the paint in an attempt to draw fouls. Well, the fact was that the refs were letting a lot go, and therefore, James' efforts were futile at best, and he actually caused more harm than help to his team. This tends to happen when you are looked to when everything is going wrong, and there is no one, not even the coach, who will be able to shoulder any of the load. It was all for LeBron to figure out, and when you're 22 and in your first Finals appearance, it's not going to come naturally. I liken this to the first time Shaq was in the Finals against the Rockets in '95. Even though he had Penny Hardaway, he was in his first appearance in the Finals, with a mostly sub-par cast (Nick Anderson (decent), Horace Grant (a little more than decent), and Dennis Scott (good shooter)) with no depth (Tree Rollins, Brian Shaw (love him, but not someone to brag about), Anthony Bowie, Jeff Turner, Donald Royal), along with a bad coach (Brian Hill, who oddly got the same gig back last year, only to get fired again) who didn't really know how to utilize his team and Shaq's abilities, basically letting them run wild. Then, when they ran into a structured team led by two stars (Olajuwon and Drexler) and guys who are just born winners (Sam Cassell, Otis Thorpe, Kenny Smith, and, of course, Robert Horry, who just captured his seventh championship ring). In addition, they were led by Rudy Tomjanovich, one of the most underrated and under-appreciated coaches ever. With all those differences, the Magic really didn't have a chance. So look at what the Cavs were going up against in this series. First of all, the whole team has been there multiple times. I believe Eric Snow, who was inactive for the series, was the only guy on the roster with Finals experience (that could be wrong, and please correct me if I am, but I'm pretty sure about that). This was a team that not only brought out an impressive starting five, but also had depth. Think about a guy like Jacques Vaughn. When he hits the market this year, he'll most likely be playing himself up as being able to start at point guard for most teams, and he would not be incorrect in his assumption. So when you have the back-up point guard on one team that is better than the starting point guard on the other, you are going to have issues. Also, I credit Michael Finley for just being a presence, and forcing Cleveland to think about one more guy. Sure, he only played 16 minutes, scoring 4 points on 1-5 shooting, but the fact that he has been known to go on a tear meant the Cavs needed to pay attention to him, which opened the doors for Parker and Manu Ginobili, who took full advantage all throughout the series. The dynamic back-court duo went on to average a combined 41.2 points a game, including 51 of the Spurs' 83 points (61.5%) in the finale. There was little doubt about whether or not the Spurs were the best team coming into this game, but everyone left the series thinking the same thing: Th Cavs are simply not in the same league as the Spurs. This was the minors vs. the majors. Sure, Cleveland had a good team, and LeBron is a special player, but they were simply no match for San Antonio, who have fulfilled "dynasty" status with their fourth championship in nine years.

Ok, with the human asterisk coming to town for the first time ever, the Sox are in dire need to win at least two of three, having dropped three of their last four series (Yanks, A's, Rockies). Of course, with the Giants coming to town, it also marks the first appearance of Dave Roberts to Fenway since 2004. Just one look at the picture to the right will be a sure solution to any Red Sox fan who may be feeling blue. This stolen base meant everything to us. This was the official signal that the Sox were not going to walk away with our tails between our legs, and get bounced from the playoffs at home again. Happier times are ahead of us Red Sox Nation, so don't despair if the lead slims a bit, because this is still a hell of a team despite their glaring holes, and there's no need to hit the panic button just yet. I hope everyone is staying strong out there, as I am attempting to do so myself. Take care now. Peace.

~Mell-o

Bushwood, A Dump?

"Alright place your bets, place your bets!"

Today marks the beginning of the 107th installment of the U.S. Open, which is being played at Oakmont Country Club in Oakmont, Pennsylvania, right outside of Pittsburgh. This is one of the few instances where actual golf fans, including myself, probably forgot who won at Winged Foot last year (Geoff Ogilvy) because all anyone can really remember is Mickelson reverting back to his old ways and absolutely choking the title away with a double on the 72nd hole. Phil got over the hump in Augusta, but it seems like he is still is fighting his demons on all other "major" fronts. And now, it looks like "Lefty" may not be able to even finish this year due to his nagging wrist injury. So, I would be absolutely shocked if Mickelson were even able to contend this year. So, with that being said, who has the best shot of winning? Oakmont apparently is going to be one of the toughest courses ever to host an Open, as numerous players have come out and said that a double digit over-par winner is not unlikely. Therefore, you're going to be looking for a guy that keeps the ball in the short stuff and get out of trouble if needed. Also, the greens will always be firm in majors, so you're also going to be looking for a guy who can use the flat-blade and take advantage of some of those rare birdie opportunities. One way of determining how well a golfer will fare against this incredibly hard challenge, and factor in all of the above qualities I have mentioned, is to look at the "All-Around" statistic, which is a cumulative sum of a player's ranking in scoring, putting, eagles, birdies, sand saves, GIR (greens in regulation), driving distance, and driving accuracy (also known as FIR, or fairways in regulation). Here is a look at the top 20 in that category so far on the tour in 2007. Remember, just like in golf, the lower, the better:

Vijay Singh 235
Tiger Woods 254
John Rollins 303
Anthony Kim 326
Phil Mickelson 328
Sean O'Hair 345
Bubba Watson 352
Adam Scott 375
Vaughn Taylor 381
Ernie Els 399
Rod Pampling 420
Mark Calcavecchia 425
Ken Duke 425
Geoff Ogilvy 426
Ryan Moore 440
Robert Allenby 457
Boo Weekley 459
K.J. Choi 465
Stewart Cink 466
Jerry Kelly 466

Now, here's a further breakdown, with FIR, GIR, and putting considered:

FIR %
Jose Coceres 76.32
Jim Furyk 75.28
Fred Funk 75.21
Zach Johnson 73.33
Joe Durant 72.47
Scott Verplank 71.88
Paul Goydos 71.48
John Cook 71.26
Steve Elkington 70.99
Heath Slocum 70.66
Kirk Triplett 70.45
Tommy Armour III 70.35
Tim Clark 70.24
Craig Bowden 69.73
Bart Bryant 69.21
Brian Gay 68.97
Justin Leonard 68.81
Jerry Kelly 68.62
Doug LaBelle II 68.56
Glen Day 68.54


GIR %
John Senden 70.71
Jeff Gove 69.95
Tiger Woods 69.64
Tommy Armour III 68.92
Tom Lehman 68.61
Nick Watney 68.32
John Cook 68.22
Robert Allenby 68.2
Alex Cejka 68.15
John Merrick 67.99
Jim Furyk 67.55
Anthony Kim 67.54
Adam Scott 67.44
Vijay Singh 67.04
Briny Baird 66.67
Ted Purdy 66.67
Brett Wetterich 66.67
Matthew Goggin 66.55
Dudley Hart 66.5
Duffy Waldorf 66.5


PUTTING
Phil Mickelson 1.715
Justin Rose 1.717
Bob Estes 1.732
Padraig Harrington 1.734
Nathan Green 1.736
Aaron Baddeley 1.74
Ernie Els 1.741
Fredrik Jacobson 1.743
Jonathan Byrd 1.744
Adam Scott 1.746
Tiger Woods 1.746
Lee Janzen 1.749
Vijay Singh 1.749
Brian Gay 1.753
David Toms 1.753
Jeff Quinney 1.756
Jerry Kelly 1.757
Joe Ogilvie 1.757
Steve Stricker 1.757
John Rollins 1.758

Ok, so looking all of this over, you're going to want to look at the names that keep re-appearing. Two names of interest are Jerry Kelly and John Rollins, two names the casual golf observer may not know. Kelly never had any kind of success in majors, that is until this year, when he finished tied for 5th at the Masters. Kelly is a guy who is known for making a lot of putts, and he is able to keep the ball straight, although he is relatively short off the tee. He has two tour wins to his credit, both coming in 2002, so it has been awhile since Kelly has seen his name on top of the leaderboard. However, I do expect him to be in contention through the first two rounds, but ultimately, he will fall off the pace. If you look back over his history, you will note that he was in the final group on Sunday at the 2005 PGA Championship, which he ended up placing in a tie for 34th, so I'm not expecting a weekend charge by Kelly, but I do think he will be able to put up decent totals for Thursday and Friday.

John Rollins is an even more obscure name by standards. Rollins, a VCU grad (holla Richmond!) also has won twice on the tour, with his last coming at the 2006 B.C. Open. The thing about that particular tournament is that it takes place while the British Open is being played, so you really don't get the top names there for that tournament. However, Rollins has power, and more importantly, accuracy, and given that the last two winners, Ogilvy and Michael Campbell at Pinehurst in '05, were not well-known at the time of their wins, Rollins, who currently is 9th in the FedEx Cup points system, really has a shot to do some damage in this tournament.

Right now, after Tiger, there really is no definitive favorite. However, given that 2007 is the year of the villain, as I proclaimed back in February, I am going to go with my least favorite golfer, Vijay Singh, to hold up the trophy on Sunday. He's got all the qualifications, all of the skills, and most importantly, he's "due" for one. Vijay's placed in the top 10 seven times in the 12 Opens he's played in. He's #1 in the All-Around statistic, and has made every cut for a tournament he's played in, including 11 top 25s, four top 10s, and two victories coming at the season-opening Mercedez-Benz Championship and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. As far as what kind of numbers he'll have to post, I think if the Masters were any indication (won by Zach Johnson at +1 by two strokes, the first winner to finish over par in 51 years), then expect the final score to be around two or three over par. Again, from what has been said, and the reputation of the USGA in terms of heightening the rough and making the greens that much more slippery, I would not expect any red numbers to appear on Sunday.

Have a good weekend, and don't forget about Dad on Sunday. Take care. Peace.

~Mell-o

Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Is It Over Yet?

"And there we were all in one place
A generation lost in space."

So I happened to watch the NBA Finals last night, and by "watch it," I mean frantically fast-forwarding through the game, wondering aloud "when exactly is the offense going to make an appearance?" This is absolutely brutal to watch. The one guy of any intrigue is not playing nearly as well as he had all throughout th playoffs, which has San Antonio up 3-0, with the Spurs winning their fourth title a preconceived notion. LeBron has floundered, and has never looked comfortable in this series, and as for the rest of the team, it's been a nightmare. The funny thing is that I never really brought attention to the fact that Mike Brown, the Cavs coach, really doesn't know what he's doing. Again, he is in kind of a figurehead position for right now, with LeBron basically going pseudo-Bill Russell, handling the coaching and playing at the same time. This is kind of like "Kicking and Screaming" when Will Ferrell tells his players the only play is to "give it to the Italians" (man I'm reaching on references). Brown doesn't really have any control over the situation, and when you factor in the idea that none of his starters have any experience in the Finals, and you have a recipe for disaster. I think, really, if Cleveland had someone in place, like a Pat Riley or Don Nelson, that has been around the game awhile, and knows how to handle superstars, then perhaps, Cleveland would have had at least a fighting chance in this series.

Also, is there anyone else who feels like the refs are refraining from whistle-blowing a little too much. This was evident especially last night. Look, I know LeBron came out in his press conference after the game and told the press he didn't get fouled, but if you look at the footage, which I have seen countless times today, it is blatantly obvious that Bruce Bowen hacked him, and that, even if you don't call a continuation, and give him three free throws, you have to call something there. Bowen almost grabbed James and pulled him back, knowing that there was a good chance LeBron could pull off a buzzer beater to tie things up. It's amazing how the one time a guy actually wants a foul to be called, the refs let it slide and let the teams play on. There have been numerous instances when the contact has been a little too much. I'm aware that in the playoffs, a lot more contact is let go, and the games have less stoppages, but in this series, I have seen an abundance of no-calls that cannot happen. The refs need to start out early and carefully monitor the contact being dished out. If they started calling fouls early in the game, and setting the tone in that manner, then players would eventually learn what they can/cannot do, and act accordingly, or else risk getting into early foul trouble, something no one wants in the biggest series of the year.

Justin Verlander tossed the sixth no-hitter in Tiger history last night in a brilliant performance at Comerica Park, shutting down the Brewers in a 4-0 victory. Verlander ended with 12 strikeouts, and was clocked at 102 MPH on his 108th pitch of the game (ended up with 112 pitches). In terms of stuff, you may never see as much filth as Verlander was throwing last night. Absolutely ridiculous. Not saying I predicted a no-hitter would be forthcoming, but I was not in the least bit surprised that he was able to pull it off. I have been touting Verlander ever since I saw him pitch last year against the Royals (I know you were probably expecting me to say I saw him at Old Dominion...sorry to disappoint), and he was electric. He can smoke guys away, but what was really impressive was that off-speed hook pitch he threw (I want to say it's a slider, but it's not as fast in velocity, and it's not a curve because of its overwhelmingly lateral movement, so I just call it a hook pitch...very technical I know). The only thing that concerned me was if he would have the ability to sustain that kind of stuff for an entire season. Well, he proved to me, and the rest of the baseball world, that he's nasty, and he's got the stamina to pitch 200 innings a year. After a 17-9 rookie campaign that saw him become the #2 starter on the eventual AL pennant winners, Verlander is off to a 7-2 start, with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP, which no doubt was helped by last night's gem. So if there was anyone that was not aware of how special this guy is, they definitely know now.

What kind of took me back was that there have been discussions about how it's too early to be talking about how great Verlander is because of some pitchers in the past who burnt out before they could ever really continue their initial success. What exactly is the problem with calling a guy great based on what he has done? The guy is dominating right now, and who are we to speculate on how long he can keep it going, or how long his career is going to be? Why can't we just let the guy pitch, and, knock on wood, anything should happen, then judge him then. Sure, there have been guys in the past, like Mark Prior and Kerry Wood (hate to go all Cubs with that, sorry) who have gotten off to fast starts only to have their careers mired by injuries, but how can that be a basis on what Verlander's future may hold? Anyway, that's how I feel about all this speculation and the whispers going on about how this may be it for him. Enjoy this guy's pitching right now, because he truly is a gifted player and has a tremendous future that could stretch out for who knows how long.

So, is there anyone out there still doubting me after I came out and said that J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo would not be able to live out their respective five-year deals? Lugo was placed in the nine spot for last night's game in favor of the red-hot Dustin Pedroia (by the way, I think he's getting comfortable now...hate to say I told you so), and Drew has been horrendous except for two games against the D-Backs, which I'm convinced was a total fluke, and more or less it was an attempt to show brother Stephen who was better. It sounds juvenile, and although I don't have any siblings, I would have to imagine if you were facing your own flesh and blood, you would want to come out looking like the superior player. I mean there is a reason that they call it "sibling rivalries" right? See, again, this is a move that was made because they didn't believe Wily Mo was good enough to play right, so they went out and got the most expensive, fragile replacement for Trot Nixon they could. Quick sidenote here: When has going out and getting the antithesis of something that was great ever worked? In any event, I never liked the signing, although I think he is a good player, but giving him that kind of scratch is not the best way to motivate a guy.

The same goes with Lugo, who doesn't really have much going for him besides the fact that he's fast. He's a liability at short, he really doesn't hit with a lot of pop, and he doesn't get on base that often for a leadoff guy (.214 AVG and a .274 OBP...ouch!). I foresee the recent lineup changes to definitely help the top of the order. Hey, Lugo does have 18 steals, and already has 34 ribbies (projected to go to 91, but those are projections; there's still a lot of baseball left), so not all has been lost for Julio. I do think that if you keep him deep in the order, it will take a lot of the pressure he has off of him. Another thing to note is that Lugo is hitting .291 at home, so he at least seems to be somewhat comfortable (there's that word again) in front of the home crowd. And yes, J.D. has hit worse at home than on the road (.230 to .255), so he's pretty much screwed no matter how you slice it.

So in hopes we can continue the great play we've had in interleague games this year (5-2 coming into tonight), I'm pulling for Schill to have another great start, because his start against Oakland was probably the most encouraging performance from any pitcher so far this year (actually, Wake's start last night was not too shabby at all). Take care guys. Thanks for reading. Peace.

~Mell-o

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

King Of Pain

"But I'm-a wishin' and-a hoping
That just once these doors weren't locked."

Yes, that's from "Dirty Water," and I just want to report that the Charles is a little cleaner than it was when The Standells wrote about it (they were from Cleveland too...maybe they just moved to Boston and called it home?). Ok, so with the summer in full swing, the Sox back at home, and rumors abound, it really helps a guy like me out in terms of material. Here we go now:

So I was reading an article on ESPN about the 32 athletes who are "now," and frankly, it was insulting as a fan of sports to read it. Does Page 2 even have any kind of feel for what is actually going on in sports. In one of the sections, it lists guys who don't have the "it" factor going for them, and David Ortiz was one of those guys. Are you kidding me? I'm not saying he necessarily has to be on the list, but to say he doesn't have something "extra" going for him is crazy to me. Papi is second-in-line to the throne of Boston sports behind Tom Brady, and is one of the most beloved players in not only baseball, but sports in general. He doesn't have the "it"...please, get real. Anyway, I went out and did the alternative sports writing world a freggin' service and made a list of my own (Goulet!). This is my list, and again, I'm not trying to hate on people who do the exact thing that I do, but make money by doing so, it's simply a difference of opinion. I just feel like this list was thrown together at the last minute, and they were attempting to appeal to everyone. This is my opinion on who's the glitz of the sports world right now (by the way, here's the article for your viewing pleasure...I know there are a bunch of duplicates...they did get some of them right):
  1. LeBron James- Clearly, with LeBron reaching the Finals, his career milestones continue to stack up. Sure, the Cavs are getting killed by the Spurs right now, but James has had one of the more brilliant playoff runs in recent NBA history, and now, the NBA actually is getting some exposure, and this time, it is in the positive sense, unlike the usual talk about how the league is filled with "gangsters," and that the fundamentals of the game have been thrown out the window. LeBron has brought back what was great about the game, and put a modern spin on it that is just what this league needed.
  2. Sidney Crosby- This guy is in just his second year in the league, and he already has a scoring title to his credit. What is next for "Sid the Kid?" Well, perhaps a Hart Trophy, and maybe, if the Pens stop worrying about moving out of the Steel City and spend more time, and money, in getting free agents, like Chris Drury, and keeping their core of Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal, and Marc-Andre Fleury in tact, they could be able to make a run at a Cup as soon as next year.
  3. Reggie Bush- Already, this guy is probably the most electrifying player in the league, and it only took him one year. Bush capped off his outstanding rookie season in the NFC Championship game in Chicago, ripping off a gigantic run that was topped off by a $5,000 wave at Brian Urlacher, and a somersault into the end zone. The message was simple: "I've arrived." Not to mention the fact that Bush will be playing with a chip on his shoulder for perhaps the rest of his career after Houston passed on him at #1. How's that workin' out for ya? (too easy, still, had to)
  4. Lorena Ochoa- So ESPN's rep for women's golf was Michelle Wie. Oh yeah, remind me of these two things: What has she won and who cares? If you want to get into someone that people may actually give somewhat of a damn about on the LPGA, Ochoa is definitely the pick. She has 11 career tour wins, and right now, she is the #1 ranked female golfer on the planet. Not Annika, or any other women's golfer you can't name, but Lorena Ochoa. Although she has not won a major yet, her time will come very shortly.
  5. Rafael Nadal- So are there any more questions about if this guy can hang with Federer? Nadal, who has never lost in the French Open, captured his third consecutive open title over the weekend. Sure, Federer is not as great on clay as he is on other surfaces, but at least with this win, it further cements Nadal as the rival for Federer, which is exactly what tennis needed, as Federer was seemingly winning majors at will. If Nadal can prove to be a worth adversary, and perhaps beat him one of these days on something other than at Roland Garros, then we may have a Sampras/Agassi thing going on.
  6. Martin Truex, Jr.- With another Junior leaving DEI, the pressure falls squarely on the shoulders of Truex to carry on the legacy of the late Dale Earnhardt's team. After dominating the Busch series (champ in 2004 and 2005), Truex took over the #1 car last year and finished 19th in points. This year, Truex has come out hot in his sophomore campaign, as he sits in 11th place, which would make him a part of "The Chase." Along with his two top fives and five top 10s, Truex captured his first Nextel Cup race in Dover, winning by nearly seven seconds over Ryan Newman, so Truex has responded to the pressure quite well thus far.
  7. Vince Young- Last year, Young had the Midas touch, and it followed him from his National Title win in Pasadena to Nashville, as after landing the starting job, Young went 8-5, including running off six straight wins before their season-ending loss against your New England Patriots. Young will now be put in a bit of a quandary now, as not only did he lose his best running back (Travis Henry) and wide receiver (Drew Bennett), but he also has to dodge the Madden cover "curse." So if Young can come out of this without taking too much damage, then he truly will have a place amongst the best quarterbacks in the league.
  8. Chris Bosh- Did anyone else notice the sudden turnaround with the Raptors? This team had the #1 pick in last year's Draft, and went 27-55. Although the additions of T.J. Ford, Andrea Bargnani, and Jorge Garbajosa certainly helped the overall depth of the team, but the way Bosh stepped up his game this season was the biggest factor in the Raptors improving their record by 20 wins and grabbing the #3 spot in the Eastern Conference. Although they were bounced in the first round, Bosh has established himself as a marquee player, and averaged 22.6 points, 10.7 boards a game, and 42 double-doubles, all career highs.
  9. Michael Phelps- After medaling eight times in the 2004 Games in Athens, including six golds, you would figure that there was not a whole lot more that the 21-year old could do. Well, think again. At the 2007 World Championships, Phelps placed first in all seven events he took a part in, including five world records. Phelps is already being considered as the greatest American swimmer to ever live, and has the resume to back it up with 31 U.S. titles, six American records, and six world records.
  10. Jake Peavy- Despite getting almost no exposure on the east coast, Peavy is widely considered to be one, if not, the best pitchers in the game today. Sure, Johan Santana has the hardware, but in terms of right now, I would have to give the nod to Peavy and his 7-1 mark, along with a 1.97 ERA and 95 K's, both of which are tops in the NL. His stuff is unbelievably electric, and has one of the best breaking pitches I have ever seen.
  11. Shaun White- I have to agree with Page 2 on this one, because White is the face of "extreme" sports right now, and has everything covered, from skating, to snowboarding, to surfing, White has extended himself beyond what many before him had ever dreamed of doing, and has stamped his name onto popular culture. Further more, he's just 20, so the sky is the limit for this kid.
  12. Greg Oden- After the NBA Combine, it has become clear on who the #1 player is going into the Draft. Oden was dominant in workouts, and has the physical prowess to be an NBA center already. There is no talk about him needing to gain/shed pounds, or put on muscle. Oden, physically, already has all the tools to make an impact for Portland, who is going to make him the #1 pick a couple of weeks from now. Not saying that Portland will be making any title runs in the near future, but Oden will certainly have an impact on both the city of Portland and the Northwest Division.
  13. LaDainian Tomlinson- Sure, he wasn't exactly high on my list after his post-Divisional Playoff game comments, but still, you have to give the guy credit. He is the best player in the NFL right now, and did score 31 TDs last season, so you have to give it to the guy, because he is great, and potentially still hasn't reached his ceiling yet, which is quite scary.
  14. David Wright- Wright is becoming the face of the Mets, and for good reason. He is the premier third baseman in the NL, and without that guy in the Bronx, would easily be the best in baseball. He does have some ammo that you can bring into a gunfight with an A-Rod backer. Last year, he had a 20/20 season, along with a .311 average and 116 RBIs in just his second full season in the bigs.
  15. Jose Reyes- I tried to separate between Wright and Reyes, but I couldn't choose just one, so I figured I might as well throw both of them in the list. Reyes simply went bananas last year, also his second. While leading the majors in steals with 64, he showed tremendous power from the shortstop position, belting out 19 homers and driving in 81 RBIs from the leadoff spot. Couple that with a .300 average and a flair for making the tough plays in the field, and you are looking at one of the best five-tool players the game as seen in quite a while.
  16. Carl Crawford- Everyone seems to forget about this guy, and I would put about 100% blame on the fact that he is playing in Tampa. If Crawford were playing for a contender, his name would be all over the MVP ballots. To sum everything up, this year, he's hitting over .300, with six homers, 39 RBIs, and 19 steals, and this can be called an off-year for Crawford. Although he may never get the recognition he deserves, he, along with Reyes, is one of the best all-around players in the game today.
  17. Shawne Merriman- Hey, he did the time, and even though the guy juiced a little on the side, he is still the best outside linebacker in the NFL. The #56 serves him well, because he reminds a lot of people of another certain linebacker that played his home games off of Exit 16W in Jersey.
  18. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.- People love him, people hate him, and there's very little in between, but still, the guy makes headlines, and he is the most popular driver in NASCAR today. With the recent announcement that Junior would be joining Hendrick Motorsports, you're talking about a three-headed monster of Junior, Jeff Gordon, and Jimmie Johnson that is going to be a menace for other teams to compete with.
  19. Floyd Mayweather, Jr.- How can you really forget about the guy who just won the fight of this century? It wasn't the best fight ever, but Mayweather, along with Oscar De La Hoya, put boxing back on the map, if only for a few weeks, as the drama of their reality show on HBO built up the fight even more than the already giant expectations the fight was going to bring, and brought in record sales from a pay-per-view audience.
  20. O.J. Mayo- A firestorm of controversy has followed Mayo to Southern Cal, and his name has been brought up among top prospects for years, so now, Mayo will finally strap it up for his first, and perhaps his only, college season of his career. Is there any way he can possibly matched the hype that has gone along with his name? Well, the last two players that were in his situation (LeBron and Oden) have done just fine with all of the attention they received.
  21. David Beckham- That's a lot of money for one guy, but there is the chance he could create the kind of buzz the MLS has lacked since Freddy Adu's debut with D.C. United a few years ago. Do I think it will become a trend for European players to come to American soil? Probably not, but at least soccer fans now know that it's possible, you just need to pool a lot of money together, and even your team could end up with a star.
  22. Peyton Manning- Fine, fine, fine, he's on the list. You know I hate to do it, but you can't discount the fact that the guy is the best at what he does, and that he won the big one...finally, so now he has that monkey off his back. Enjoy it while it lasts...
  23. Tom Brady- Because this guy is coming for you. Brady already has three rings, and his team has put him in a great position to win a fourth in seven years. Although football is the ultimate team game, Brady and Manning have become the figureheads of this brewing rivalry. It's not that the NFL needed any help, but they are sure getting a boost when these two old AFC East foes throw down.
  24. Kobe Bryant- Are you coming, or are you going? Kobe may never even make up his mind, and could end up staying in L.A., then bolt in times of trouble. Who knows what this guy is capable of? The only thing anyone knows is that Bryant is the best pure scorer in the NBA, and has shown many-a-time that he can hit a shot from literally any spot on the court, whether it's an open jumper, a contested drive to the basket, or being doubled from behind the arc, Bryant can do it all. The split with Shaq may not have helped out his championship total, but it has forced Bryant to become a better all-around player now that he shoulders basically all of the burden of the Lakers.
  25. Steve Nash- This guy is basically your default MVP for the time being. Without Nash, the Suns are simply just a mediocre team that has potential. Nash's ability to get everyone involved and keep everyone happy is unparalleled, and along with creating opportunities for others, he does take time out of his busy schedule to help himself out (18.6 ppg, 53.2% FG, 45.5% 3PT)
  26. Jason Kidd- So why is it that this guy gets absolutely no credit? Is there some kind of coincidence to the fact that teams he has been on have reached the playoffs 10 seasons in a row? When he was with Phoenix, the team went from 40-42 in '96 to 56-26 in '97 upon his arrival. The Nets went from 26-56 in '00 to 52-30, tops in the East. So are the triple-doubles becoming mundane to people, because I'm pretty sure he's at about the skill level as Steve Nash is, if not better, and yet all you hear is Steve Nash this, and Steve Nash that. Maybe I have an east-coast bias on this, but Kidd absolutely tears it up on a nightly basis. Maybe it's me, but I would want a guy that is almost good for a triple-double a night (13.0ppg, 9.2apg, 8.2rpg)
  27. Chuck Liddell- I personally am not into it, but I have to recognize that mixed martial arts is quickly becoming the alternative sports genre of choice for kids of my generation. Liddell is "the guy" right now in this field, even though he recently lost his title fight to Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. That particular fight was the highest rated ever for the UFC, who have shown that they have a fan-backing that is growing with every day, and that this has the chance to supersede boxing with relative ease.
  28. Tiger Woods- There's really no way to keep this guy off the list. His career speaks for itself, and even though he hasn't gotten off to the best start this year, this is more like a "Lifetime Achievement Award" for him. He'll win more majors, and remember, if you are playing a sport, and the question of "who do you think will win, Tiger or the field?" is brought up, you're doing something right.
  29. Alex Rodriguez- He is the best player in the game, but brings a losing cancer to wherever he plays, so this is much more an individual award. Great numbers, no rings. Hey, I can deal with that.
  30. Dwight Howard- I think he has a coach now, so with Van Gundy in place, Howard is going to have an even bigger year than he had this past season, which is hard to imagine considering Howard, 21, vaulted himself into an elite group of big men, much like the previously-mentioned Chris Bosh did (17.6ppg, 12.3rpg, 1.9bpg, 60 double-doubles).
Ok, so that was only 30, but the more I was making the list, the more I thought "well, that was kind of an opinion piece that ESPN did, and it's basically fueled to strike up debate, which they definitely accomplished...and sure, some of their picks were a little off, but I've been known to be off too sometimes, so no worries." So apparently, once I slept on it for awhile, I actually figured out that people are entitled to their opinions, and I'm bitter that they're getting paid and I'm still unemployed.

Anyway, one more note before I leave you. Another Celtic rumor is picking up steam, as it has come to my attention that disgruntled Sonics forward Rashard Lewis has been rumored to be involved in a sign-and-trade with the Celtics. If I have learned anything throughout the years, here it is: The more popular and rampant the rumors become, the less likely it will happen, so I'm going to keep my opinions on this brief, because building myself up has been an excellent way to let myself down. In any event, sure, Lewis would be a fantastic addition to the C's, but realistically, how good is the deal going to be for the Sonics? Most likely, they are going to have to part with one of three guards (Tony Allen, Delonte West, Sebastian Telfair), the #5 pick, and Theo Ratliff? If you were Seattle, would you really think that is enough for a guy who is, not only young, but is a perennial All-Star, and will be for years to come? See, this is why I think the Celts are going to be stuck here. They have almost nothing that is prized by other teams, except of course Gerald Green and Al Jefferson, the two guys they are dead-set against trading. So the C's really find themselves in a hard place here, as they want to get better, but yet are unwilling to part with the building blocks of the franchise...the future, in order to do so. It's not as though teams are out there saying "you know, the Celtics haven't been good in awhile, so I think we should help them out by taking a decent guard, and pick that will be spent on someone who will likely be a bust, and a guy making $11 million that probably won't play next year off of their hands for one of our superstars...yeah, that seems fair." This is one of the things I hate about sports radio (sorry to tangent here). When people call up and propose trades that seem ingenious to them at the time, they aren't really thinking about the other end of the trade. It's merely a selfish aspect only giving consideration to your team, and the other team apparently will just give in to an incredibly lopsided trade because your team is the only one that matters. You need to step into the light and realize that this is a two-way street. Again, you can voice whatever you want to, you have the right, but just realize you may sound a little ridiculous with some of this. So, really, I am trying to convince myself to not believe in any of this, even though all of this is rather enticing.

Justin Verlander just threw a no-hitter, so I perhaps will be commenting on that at a later time. Until then, I'm going to enjoy the rest of my Tuesday night, and hope you do the same. Peace.

~Mell-o

Monday, June 11, 2007

Daily Gamecock Article

"Don't dream it's over."

Hey guys, apparently this is post #99 of this whole extravaganza, so we'll be hitting the century mark pretty soon. I won't be doing anything special, and I don't think I get anything for making it this far, so there's really no reason to delve into numbers. Just know that I appreciate everyone who has been there from the beginning and those who have come along for the ride. It's been real, and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. With that being said, I just submitted an article to "The Daily Gamecock," and I figured I would put it up for your viewing pleasure. Sure, it will take some of the spontaneity out of it, but I'm pretty sure a whole bunch of you will not have access to the paper, so why not keep you apprised of my local writing right? Anyway, this article is about two of the top prospects on the USC baseball team, who lost to UNC yesterday in the Super Regionals. It was a season that includes the Cocks leading the nation in homers, and marred in constant pitching woes, which were on display in the Tar Heel series. So, the bullpen pretty much blew it for us, but hey, I mean, we got there didn't we? Sure, we were #1 in the country at one point, but look at a team like Vanderbilt, who were the #1 ranked team going into regionals, and then got bounced at home before even reaching the Supers, so it could have been a lot worse than the way things turned out. Anyway, hope you enjoy, and if you are in Columbia, pick up a copy on campus. It's not going to be as thick as the papers that come out during the regular school year, but the writing is still there, and I'm pretty sure they still print sudokus, so definitely check it out.

Despite Series Loss, Two Gamecocks Have Bright Futures Ahead

After a heartbreaking series up in Chapel Hill, Gamecock fans have been searching for something positive to take out of the series. Well, ESPN’s Keith Law may be able to help you out. The accredited Law, who is also the senior baseball analyst with Scouts Inc., has recently put out his list of the Top 20 prospects who will be eligible for next year’s First-Year Player Draft, and two USC players have made the list. First baseman Justin Smoak is ranked third, and overall, is the highest ranked collegiate player on the list, and third baseman James Darnell listed as the #15 prospect. Both are going to be juniors next year, so their signability and desire to turn pro will determine if they will leave school early for a shot at the Major Leagues

Smoak was one of the best hitters in the nation this season, and this should be of little surprise to not only those in the Midlands, but also, around the country, as Smoak was named MVP of the Cape Cod League this past summer. On the year, Smoak batted .315 with 22 home runs and 72 RBIs, both team highs. The 22 homers have him tied for the conference lead, and place him in a tie for sixth in the nation. In addition to his bat, Smoak is also regarded as being one of the best defensive prospects who are eligible to be drafted next year. The 6’4, 210 pound sophomore has the frame that pro scouts drool over, and is extremely athletic, giving him the ability to make the tough plays at first. The Goose Creek native was originally drafted by the Oakland A’s in the 16th round of the 2005 Draft, but, thankfully, he passed up that opportunity, and wound up a Gamecock. There is a chance that Smoak could go #1 overall in next year’s Draft, but it will be determined on two things: How well Smoak plays next year, and how well he ultimately stacks up against the two Californian outfielders, Isaac Galloway and Aaron Hicks, who are currently ranked ahead of him. If Smoak can repeat his performance from this season, the decision will be very tough for the team picking first next year.

Darnell received national exposure in the UNC series, when he belted a two-run homer in Game 1 of the best-of-three series off of Tar Heel ace Robert Woodard. With his name now out there, and having displayed his abilities in the postseason, Darnell’s name is already on the rise. Darnell, who comes to the Gamecocks from Danville, CA, led the team in batting with a .331 average. In addition to that, he showed a good amount of power, contributing 19 homers and 63 RBIs, which is a plus if you’re looking to play a corner position in the bigs. Darnell showed that he could hit a pitch from just about anywhere on, or around, the plate, and along with his high average, showed a tremendous amount of discipline throughout the year, walking 51 times, fourth best in the conference. Something else Darnell has going for him that will up his stock further is that he has the ability to step right in and make an impact, as seen in his first start last year against Elon, where he went 2-5 with a homer and 3 RBIs.

While both are likely to leave after next year, Smoak and Darnell seemed poised to be one of the most dynamic duos in the country, and with a lot of familiar faces coming back next year, this tandem, the team, and USC fans will have a lot to look forward to for the 2008 season.

Thanks guys. Peace.

~Mell-o

The Yankee Deposition

(note: I am submitting this to my editor at Sports Central to show I can do a research composition. Yes, the subject sucks, and I hated almost every second of writing it, but I think this is showing the ability that I can write an objective research article about the team I hate so much...anyway, I figured I might share it with you because...well, I put a ton of work into it, and why let it only be seen by perhaps just one person? So, here it is...and it's ok to like the writing, but it's not ok to like the subject matter.)

Going into their series with the Red Sox on June 1, the Yankees were 13 1/2 games back behind Boston in the A.L. East, and another seven games behind the Tigers in the A.L. Wild Card. Now, after one series and one fateful home run by Alex Rodriguez, it appears as though the Yankees have begun to make their inevitable climb towards the top of the division, and everyone in Red Sox Nation now has to adjust their rear-view mirrors, because the once-dead Bombers are starting to win again, which is something that everyone, especially the first-place Sox, have begun to take notice.

After splitting the first two games of the Boston series, the Yankees were at the crossroads of their season. Sure, it's only June, but still, there are certain holes that some teams, even the mighty Yankees, cannot dig themselves out of. If New York had lost on that Sunday night, they would have found themselves down 14 1/2, and although the season is early, their ambitions of winning their tenth consecutive division title would have been all but lost, and probably would have seen them be relegated to contending for the Wild Card against about six other teams. But then, the Yankee magic once again found its way to the diamond, and from that home run, those “dead” Yankees have found new life.

Since their win last Sunday, New York has been on a tear. After their improbable comeback against two of the Sox’s best relievers (Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon), the Yankees continued on their road trip, and promptly beat the White Sox in three out of four games at U.S. Cellular. Upon returning home, their schedule eased up considerably by facing the lowly Pirates at Yankee Stadium. The Yanks outscored the Bucs 27-13 in their three-game sweep, which added onto their season-high six game winning streak. Along with this, the deficit is now at 9 ½ in the East, the first time Boston’s lead in the East has been under double-digits since May 17.

There are a few factors that have lead to the Yankees’ sudden transformation. The most striking has to be that the Yanks have been able to stay away from their biggest weakness, the bullpen, and instead have relied on their offense to carry the bulk of the load. When you think about salary allocation, it makes sense that the focus of the last couple of offseasons has been on acquiring offense, and trying to rely on applying a patchwork starting rotation and bullpen as an attempt to try and keep them in the game for as long as possible. Here is a look at the 2007 salary figures for both the starting lineup and their pitching staff for this season:

Starting Lineup:






1

Johnny Damon





$13,000,000

2

Derek Jeter





$21,600,000

3

Bobby Abreu





$13,000,000

4

Alex Rodriguez





$27,708,525

5

Jason Giambi





$23,428,571

6

Hideki Matsui





$13,000,000

7

Jorge Posada





$12,000,000

8

Robinson Cano





$490,800

9

Josh Phelps





$600,000


Total:





$124,827,896








Starting Pitching:






1

Mike Mussina





$11,070,423

2

Carl Pavano





$10,000,000

3

Andy Pettitte





$16,000,000

4

Chien-Ming Wang





$489,500

5

Kei Igawa





$4,000,000

6

Darrell Rasner





$384,523

7

Jeff Karstens





$389,495

8

Tyler Clippard





$380,0001

9

Phillip Hughes





$380,0001

10

Roger Clemens





$17,629,6302


Total:





$62,989,554








Bullpen:






MR

Scott Proctor





$445,923

MR

Kyle Farnsworth





$5,666,667

MR

Luis Viscaino





$3,000,000

MR

Brian Bruney





$395,545

MR

Mike Myers





$1,250,000

CL

Mariano Rivera





$10,500,000


Total:





$21,258,135









Total Pitching Salaries:



$84,247,689


1: Because Clippard and Hughes both came up through the minors, and their salaries are unknown, I simply put the player minimum as their salary

2: Salary is pro-rated from $28,000,000; the amount of games I calculated Clemens will get paid for is 102

So, after this analysis, I calculated that the Yankees have allocated 60% of their total 2007 payroll to their starting lineup, which does not even account for any bench players they have. Also, I included every pitcher who has started for the Yankees this year, and their bullpen, and yet, those numbers still come up short in comparison to just their starting nine. Now, here are the numbers for the division leading Red Sox:

Starting Lineup:



1

Julio Lugo


$8,250,000

2

Kevin Youkilis


$424,500

3

David Ortiz


$13,250,000

4

Manny Ramirez


$17,016,381

5

J.D. Drew


$14,400,000

6

Mike Lowell


$9,000,000

7

Jason Varitek


$11,000,000

8

Coco Crisp


$3,833,333

9

Dustin Pedroia


$380,000


Total:


$77,554,214





Starting Pitching:



1

Curt Schilling


$13,000,000

2

Josh Beckett


$6,666,667

3

Daisuke Matsuzaka


$6,333,333

4

Tim Wakefield


$4,000,000

5

Julian Tavarez


$3,350,000

6

Matt Clement


$9,500,000


Total:


$42,850,000





Bullpen:



MR

Joel Piniero


$4,000,000

MR

Mike Timlin


$2,800,000

MR

Brendan Donnelly


$1,400,000

MR

Hideki Okajima


$1,225,000

MR

Kyle Snyder


$535,000

MR

Javier Lopez


$402,500

CL

Jonathan Papelbon


$425,500


Total:


$10,788,000






Total Pitching Salaries:

$53,638,000


Now, despite the Sox paying little-to-nothing for their bullpen help, and grossly underpaying for the services of Papelbon, arguably the game’s best closer, percentage-wise, the Red Sox spend more on pitching than the Yankees do (40.88% to 40.30%; to put that into perspective, .55% of the Yankees payroll is equal to about $1.15 million). This all means that the Yankees rely heavily on their bats, even more so than the Red Sox, so when their bats were running cold, it’s a fair indicator of how the team will fare. From May 10th to May 30th, the Yankees went 6-12, and their bats cooled considerably. In that time, the team average dropped by nine points (.281 to .272), their on base percentage dropped by 12 points (.361 to .349) and their OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging) drop 20 points (.795 to .775). This translated into a drastic change in the amount of runs produced. Going into May 10th, the Yanks were averaging 5.8 runs per game, but in those 18 games, the Yankees only averaged 4.2 runs, and saw their season mark fall to 5.2 runs an outing. In mentioning this, it also can be noted that the Yankees pitching actually improved over this same length of time. The team ERA dropped from 4.80 to 4.62.

It’s an easy thing to say that the Yankees’ had a “grueling” schedule over that stretch, and you would be right in assuming so (the opposition they faced in that period are a combined 45 games over .500 compared to the teams they played before, who are just 14 games over .500), but in saying that, there is no way of justifying why their hitting went down and their pitching improved. Over that stretch, they had all of their most talented hitters in the lineup, with the exception of Giambi, who sat out a few games because of his on-going heel problem, and yet, their ERA went down even when they were pitching with spare parts (Wang, Pavano, and Mussina were all on the DL at this time).

Now let’s further break down the problems of the offense, and how, after the Red Sox series, they have been able to right the ship, at least for now. There is no way of getting around it, Alex Rodriguez is the best player in baseball, and when he does not show up, the Yankees are going to be in for some serious trouble. Here are some of the splits he has this season

Period AVG
HR
RBI
OBP
OPS
April 1- May 9 0.352
15
39
0.428
1.212
May 10- May 30
0.186
4
6
0.313
0.699
June 1- June 10 0.371
5
18
0.511
1.368

Granted, A-Rod got off to one of the best starts in Major League history, but still, he is the game’s highest paid player, so he should probably play like he doesn’t have an equal. A-Rod, like him or not, is the catalyst of the Yankee offense. Sure, they did great things without him, but this is now his fourth season with New York, believe it or not, and he has become engraved into the cleanup spot, and the Yankees go if A-Rod goes. It’s as simple as that. Guys like Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter are having career years at the plate so far, but yet the Yankees were not winning, and in my approximation, it was not due to the fact that the schedule was difficult. These are the Yankees, the supposed best team in baseball, with the highest payroll, and, basically, unlimited sources to get the best players in the game. So if the schedule is tough at certain points, it is still no excuse for a team to play six games under .500 for 18 games.

Another reason that the Yankees could possibly be turning the corner this year is their bullpen. Take a look at the relievers on the roster and what their numbers have been like over the past few months:



IP

ERA

WHIP

OBA

Scott Proctor

April:

14

5.14

1.43

0.235


May-June:

18.2

2.41

1.22

0.194

Kyle Farnsworth

April:

9.1

5.79

1.71

0.270


May-June:

16

4.50

1.56

0.266

Brian Bruney

April:

13.1

2.70

1.05

0.170


May-June:

14.2

1.84

1.50

0.224

Luis Viscaino

April:

14

5.79

1.57

0.196


May-June:

16

7.31

1.88

0.300

Mike Myers

April:

10.2

1.69

1.13

0.162


May-June:

15.2

3.45

1.34

0.300

Mariano Rivera

April:

7.2

10.57

1.94

0.333


May-June:

16.1

1.10

0.81

0.193


You have to appreciate the differences in the numbers, especially of those of their best relievers: Proctor, Bruney, and Rivera. This is especially true about Rivera. Here is my opinion on why he has become so effective: At the beginning of the season, the Yankees were so scared about overworking Rivera that they did not use him unless it was absolutely necessary. It has to be tough for a guy to go that many innings in between appearances to really get into any kind of groove, and so, his work suffered. Now that Mo has been able to get some work in, he has been lights out over the past month and a half. Rivera had just one save in April, and blew two others. That has to get to someone’s confidence, even if he is one of the best of all time. Since then, he has gone 1-1, and in save opportunities, is six-for-six. Bruney has become increasingly reliable over the same time, and has really taken some of the load off of Proctor, whose 33 appearances is just one behind the league leaders (Chad Bradford and Shawn Camp). So now, what was once the biggest weakness has become a strength, especially when taking leads into the late innings.

However, this only deals with the best arms the Yanks have. When you look at the others, Myers, Viscaino, and Farnsworth, you’re talking about guys who come in early when the starters can’t go deep into games. A complimentary item to the bullpen will be the amount of innings that the starters can give them before they have to start digging into the bullpen. With Roger Clemens now on board, the Yankees trot out a rotation comprised of Clemens, Mussina, Pettitte, Wang, and Clippard, or whoever will be able to fill-in the fifth starter’s role.

So now, the Yankees are attempting to make a surge, and in doing so, they are hoping they won’t relapse into what was one of the worst stretches in recent history for the Bombers. The keys are Alex Rodriguez and the bullpen. If these one of the two, or both, start to deteriorate as the season goes on, the Yankees will have no chance to make the postseason. Although this team is full of talented guys, it all comes down to those two key items for the Yankees to make a serious run.

Peace.

~Mell-o

Sunday, June 10, 2007

Roundball Rock

"And here we go, there's nothing left to choose
And here we go, there's nothing left to lose."

Doubling down today because, after watching "The Sopranos" finale, I find myself frustrated with how everything went down. Really, no resolutions were made. Sure, Phil got whacked, but I think he had that coming. I guess the surprise was that a federal agent got the assist on that, and also, the way Phil got made, by first getting blasted in the dome, and then getting his head crushed in by a moving SUV...now that was interesting. Anyway, so apparently, I'm left to assume that Tony was about to get shot with his family present, and it was probably the right move for them to not show that because, well, you want to think that Tony could have withstood any kind of attack (he did survive two gunshot wounds throughout the series), so if he got shot, all hope would be lost. Now, I'm assuming he's about to get shot, but it was never made definitive. All I can say is that if the final show's purpose was to leave me wanting more, it certainly did its job. Again, I knew that not only would Paulie survive, but he would be able to go without ever getting shot at. Think about it. During the entire series, was Paulie ever in the middle of any gunfure (by the way, he may have been at one point, but right now, looking back, I can't remember anything like that happening)? Anyway, his ultimate demise probably happened when he agreed to take over his own crew after years of straying away from the idea due to past casualties. However, his undying allegiance to Tony, which was shown over and over again throughout the series, would probably spell his own demise ultimately as well. Well, another "dynasty" series is over, and it seems like we get this once every five years, with "Cheers," "Seinfeld," "Friends," and now, "The Sopranos." The next big "finale" will most likely be in the form of "Curb Your Enthusiasm," as Larry David has already said that this would be the last season of "Curb." The new episodes start in September, which is about when my free trial of HBO runs out...so...yeah, thanks.

Ok, another reason I am double-dipping today (you know I had to) has been that there have been two major bombshells that have hit the hardwood today, and no, none of it has to do with the Finals. Game 2 is at halftime right now, and I think the Cavs are losing by like 25, so you can pretty much mark up a two game deficit for Cleveland as they venture back home for Game 3.

First off, something factual. Gilbert Arenas will opt out of his contract and become a free agent this offseason. That's right..."Hibachi," "Agent Zero," the man himself will be out there for every team to make a bid at. When you are naming the top 10 players in the game right now, you would be remissed to not mention Arenas on that list. He is one of the very few players who, if he ends up in the right situation, could be an instant factor, and turn a team into an instant title contender. Ever since landing with the Wizards, Arenas has been a premier talent. Here are his numbers from his Washington days:

2003-04: 19.6ppg, 5.0apg, 4.6rpg, 1.9spg
2004-05: 25.5ppg, 5.1apg, 4.7rpg, 1.7spg
2005-06: 29.3ppg, 6.1apg, 3.5rpg, 2.0spg
2006-07: 28.4ppg, 6.0apg, 4.6rpg, 1.9spg

This presents a lot of possibilities in terms of possible destinations for Arenas. First, you have to consider the kind of compensation Arenas will be commanding once he hits the market. Right now, his contract is for six years and $65 million, so the numbers are definitely going to be north of that. You're probably looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of $100 million for the same amount of years. So, who exactly can afford that? Surprisingly, Charlotte could be a possibility. Sure, Arenas may want to land on a playoff contender, but the Bobcats have a strong nucleus, and if they were able to get a scorer in the backcourt like Arenas to compliment Felton at the point. They have Gerald Wallace locked up until the '08-'09 season, otherwise, you're looking at having Felton, May, Okafor, and Morrison tied up for at least the next two years. If the Bobcats would be willing to dole out the cash to keep their core players, and convince Arenas that they will do so, then Charlotte would actually be an intriguing spot for Gilbert to end up on. Remember, Charlotte has the eighth pick in the upcoming Draft, so if they go after a guy like Corey Brewer, then maybe the Arenas talks would die out. Keep in mind though that the 'Cats desperately need a face they can market, and Arenas would certainly make that happen. However, if I had to take a guess on where he would land, I would probably say Chicago. Sure, they have Ben Gordon, who had a monstrous playoff run against Miami in the first round this year, but when you have a chance to get a guy like Arenas, you don't take any chances. Plus, Gordon is only signed through next year, so having two marquee shooting guards on one team would not be out of the question. Chicago has a young core much like Charlotte, but the Bulls have already proven they can make a run in the East, so if Gilbert wanted to land on a team that could possibly make a run at a championship, which is something he clearly has not had before, the Bulls would be an attractive option. The Wizards do get first crack at him, and they have said, as of right now, that they are going to do everything in their power to re-sign him. Keep a close eye on this situation, as it could create a lot of waves in terms of who ends up where.

The other on-going situation happens to involve the men in green. The Celtics have hit the rumor mill hard, and with Oden and Durant off the board, seemingly, there's not a whole lot of guys that could step in and make the kind of immediate impact that one of those two would make. So, now may be the time to start shopping the pick. A scenario that has been brought up involves the Phoenix Suns. In the rumored deal, the C's would be sending the #5, Theo Ratliff, who has an expiring contract valued at $11.7 million (again, the reason that expiring contracts are so valuable is because it will clear cap room for the player's new team for the next season, and because, in the NBA, teams need to match salaries when trading with another team, so having a guy who makes a lot of money that is only under contract for a year is a huge advantage for a team looking to pull off a trade), and perhaps another player, like Delonte West, for Shawn Marion. If the C's were able to get a guy like Marion, it would be a huge boost to this team. Marion is signed for the next two years, and will make $16.44 million next year, and $17.18 million in 2008. Because the C's are in good financial standing (they sit at $62,248,536, which remains lower than the soft cap, which has been set at $65.2 million), the Celts will be able to not only keep Marion until the end of his deal, but have a chance to re-sign him once his contract runs out. This, again, will be dependent on how badly they want to draft Yi Jianlian, and also, if they believe that he will be available at 5. Yi is the only guy that would be remaining in the Draft that could potentially fill a need for the C's, because, although Big Al has clearly shown that he can be a double-double guy, they would like it if they could move him to the 4, and have another big man out on the floor with Jefferson. However, I would have to believe that, if given the chance to get a guy like Marion, the Celts would jump on it. The only trouble would be that Ryan Gomes would immediately have to be moved into a full-time power forward, and it remains to be seen if he can handle that kind of workload. The lineup would look like this:

PG Rondo
SG Pierce
SF Marion
PF Gomes
C Jefferson

Bench:
Allen
Perkins
Scalabrine
Szczerbiak
Green
Powe

So, they would be incredibly weak in terms of having size in the middle, but their starting five would be tremendous, especially if Gomes were able to play to his ability. The thing about the NBA is that, sure, in an ideal world, you would want as much depth as possible, but given the Walker/Pierce combo that ran through the Eastern Conference just a few years ago, all the Celts really need are two guys who can play at an All-Star level, and now, with Big Al coming into his own, they would actually have three guys who would be at that level. This would be lethal, especially in the Atlantic division, because if Vince Carter leaves the Nets, basically, the Raptors will be the only team of any comparable strength to the Celtics. The C's are in desperate need to bring in another star to compliment Pierce. They have already made an attempt to get Jermaine O'Neal from the Pacers, but the asking price apparently was a little too high (to give you an idea, the Lakers recently made a run at O'Neal, but the asking price was Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, who has been considered as a guy with perhaps the highest potential ceiling in the league, and the #19 pick in the Draft). With Marion, it would almost be like getting Durant. Sure, Durant will be in the league longer at this point than Marion would be, but you're talking about a guy who would make the C's a credible force in the East, and turn them from being bottom-dwellers into a team who would be able to make the playoffs in no time at all. Fans like myself have wanted to see a legitimate big man like Oden in the paint, but really, if they get another star, they would be vaulted back to the Antoine days, and even though he shot too many threes, and had a bit of an attitude problem, they were able to make the playoffs without a reliable big man (they had Rodney Rogers playing for crying out loud!), and I believe that if they follow the same formula, they will be rewarded ultimately. Once again though, the Bulls have been rumored to be involved with Marion as well. Chicago, no matter which direction they go in, will likely make a huge splash this offseason.

Thanks for reading guys. Take care. Peace.

~Mell-o

Insomniac Theater

"But I'm disturbed, I'm depressed, I'm inadequate...I got it all!"

Well, it's just one of those days were the sleep thing is simply not happening, and what better way to spend a sleepless night than to rant and rave a little.

So after what can basically be summed up as a disturbing series in Oakland, the Sox have shown signs of life in Arizona, taking the first two games including last night's barnburner in 10 innings. There was one highlight from the trip to the Bay Area however, as Curt Schilling came within one out of throwing a no-hitter (think he's going to shake off 'Tek anytime soon?). Outside of his Yankee starts (three of them, 14 earned in 18 innings, a 7.00 ERA), Schilling has actually been pretty solid this year, which is absolutely critical, because with two solid starters in the rotation (Schill and your pre-All-Star Game Cy Young winner Josh Beckett), it absolute reigns havoc on an opposing team in a short series. Sure, the rotation has been filled with question marks outside of those two, but as long as there is a solid foundation in place, the Sox will be rolling for a good long time. Also, the Yanks have started to make their inevitable "run" towards the top of the division, so it's so important to be able to bounce back from a horrendous series, like the one they had in Oakland, and win a series on the road against an up-and-coming team like Arizona. Look for an incredible pitching matchup today between The Big Unit and Dice-K. This one should be interesting.

So Roger made his triumphant return to the Yankees yesterday, and looked decent against the Pirates...yes, the Pirates. Hmmm, so of all the times for Roger to come back, they pick a game at home against a team who is ten games under .500. Ok, say all you want about "fatigued groins" and all that other spiel that they are throwing out there, the bottom line is simple: The Yankees really don't know what they are getting from Clemens, so it was more or less another rehab start where all the elements were perfect for Roger to come out, get a win, get the crowd into the game, and try and make an about-face after a horrendous two months to start the year. I'm all for easing a guy back into action, but this is Roger freggin' Clemens we're talking about. On last check, he has over 4,000 K's, 300 wins, six Cy Youngs, and will be a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer whenever he decides to finally hang it up once and for all. I saw Clemens against Portland, and saw him against Pittsburgh yesterday, and I'll say this: The Yanks better hope that Clemens will be able to bring more than what he brought yesterday, because against comparable hitting in the AL, he is going to get shelled. His fastball is down in velocity, his split-fingered did not really have the kind of action that we are used to seeing, and overall, he just seemed "average" on the mound in the appearances I've seen him throw. Look, I know it's early, and that he is going to build up his arm strength and sharpen his mechanics, but still, when you're paying a guy $28 million pro-rated, you probably should be expecting the results to be a little more emphatic and immediate than what they are about to get from Clemens. His next start is likely to be against the Mets at The Stadium, which will be his first real test this year, and could be a prelude to what Yankee fans can expect from "The Rocket," at least for the next few weeks.

Sorry I wasn't able to get a Stanley Cup recap up sooner, but here we go. The Ducks made an absolute mockery of the Sens in Game 5, winning the first Stanley Cup in franchise history, and marking the first time a west coast team had ever won a Cup. So the last three Cup winners have come from Florida, North Carolina, and California. Oh the irony of it all. In any event, the series went completely against what I thought it would be. Of course, defense and goaltending are going to be huge factors in terms of wins and losses, but the fact that offense really had nothing to do with the series was a bit of a surprise to me. Ray Emery was disastrous in net for pretty much the entire series. Whether it was due to skill or the magnitude of each stop he needed to make in each game, or a combination of the two, well, that may never be answered. What was answered was the fact that Emery broke down, especially in the decisive last game, where he allowed six goals on just 18 shots, a .667 save percentage, which is simply atrocious. In the five games, Emery allowed 16 goals. When you are giving up more than three goals a game in net, there stands a good reason that your team will only be able to go five games. Also, Ottawa's front line of Alfredsson, Heatley, and Jason Spezza failed to produce any kind of results. Overall, the line finished with a +/- of -3 (plus-minus is a measure for how many goals are scored on your line vs. how many the opposition scores while you are out on the ice; -3 means that when the Alfredsson line was on the ice, the opposition scored three more goals than his line scored...this a very good barometer for defencemen, but also, it shows if an offense was efficient, which Ottawa's was clearly not). Even though Ottawa did not win, I still have to acknowledge the Ducks. Outside of Scott Niedermayer, none of the players, or coaches for that matter, had ever won a Cup. Also, special consideration also has to be given to Teemu Selanne, who was one of the original building blocks, along with Paul Kariya, that Anaheim formed its franchise around. Selanne likely skated his last shift in the win, and has had a stellar NHL career since joining the league in 1988 with Winnipeg.

Tonight marks the final show for the hit HBO series "The Sopranos," arguably one of the most influential shows to ever hit television. While rumors have been swirling around how it all will come to an end, I only have one question: How can this only be an hour long? Are they really going to be able to bring closure to every single character in just an hour? Knowing David Chase and the rest of the creative team, I have to say that this is not going something you are going to want to miss.

So a lot of stuff going on today. You have the race at Pocono, Sox/D-Backs with the Sox going for the sweep, Gamecock baseball at 7, Army Wives at 10 (my cousin Brigid is one of the stars of the show, she's the one with red hair, and in being completely objective, it's actually a good show), and, of course, The Sopranos. So, I'll be writing fairly soon, and until then, good night, and good luck. Peace.

~Mell-o

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

Lookin' Out My Back Door

"I'm so happy to be stuck with you."

Some mid-week ramblings shall we?:

Trent Green finally got traded to the Dolphins. I can't even begin to fathom why it took this long for the Chiefs to pull this trade off. Look, if you know a guy is not happy with where he's at, and probably won't play any of the season because the organization has basically moved on to the future (whether that's Damon Huard or Brodie Croyle remains to be seen), why continue to hold on to him? It's not as though his trade value was going up and down because it was public knowledge the Chiefs weren't going to start him. Basically, the teams that were going to trade for him had a good amount of leverage in the dealings for Green. Also, it's June, meaning that everyone's QB situation is basically accounted for. Miami had already made this trade declaration back in March, and yet, the Chiefs thought they could get a third-rounder for Green, knowing that there were literally no buyers out there. Sure, Cleveland was in the running for a little while, but now, with Brady Quinn, Charlie Frye, and Derek Anderson on the roster, there was clearly no room for him there. Minnesota? Well, apparently they never really were interested. So the only takers all along were Miami, and yet, the Chiefs wanted more. Well, finally, they were tossed back to reality, and settled for a fifth-rounder. What I find fascinating is that unproven commodities seem to be worth more, in terms of draft picks, than proven talent. I think that Deion Branch will perhaps be the last vet to ever be traded for a first-round pick. Look at what happened over this past off-season. You have the aforementioned Green going for a fifth-rounder, the Pats trading a fourth-rounder to Oakland for Randy Moss, the Niners also swapped a fourth-rounder for Darnell Jackson, and the Bills got two threes and a seventh for Willis McGahee, a guy who, had it not been for ten yards, would have joined an exclusive list of players who rushed for 1,000 yards in each of his first three seasons. Only five players who have started their careers in the last ten years have accomplished that:
  • Shaun Alexander
  • Corey Dillon
  • Eddie George
  • Clinton Portis
  • LaDainian Tomlinson
That's a pretty select group, and for the Ravens to only give up two threes and a seventh for a guy who is entering just his fourth year in the league seems a little low to me. Sure, the average career for an NFL running back is short, but this guy is an All-Pro talent. Another way of looking at is through how many pro bowlers have been produced from 2000 to 2005 in the first round, and how many have been produced in the third and seventh rounds:

First Round:
  • 2000- 11
  • 2001- 14
  • 2002- 8
  • 2003- 7
  • 2004- 10
  • 2005- 3
  • Total- 53
Third Round:
  • 2000- 1 (Laverneus Coles)
  • 2001- 3
  • 2002- 1 (Brian Westbrook)
  • 2003- 2
  • 2004- 2
  • 2005- 1 (Frank Gore)
  • 2006- 0
  • Total- 11
Seventh Round:
  • 2000- 0
  • 2001- 0
  • 2002- 0
  • 2003- 0
  • 2004- 0
  • 2005- 0
  • 2006- 0
  • Total- 0
So why is it that McGahee, who was drafted in the first round, went for so little? Perhaps it was due to a couple of injuries McGahee had over the past year, but still, even if those players they end up drafting end up doing great things, will they ever account for the value of a franchise back? It just seems crazy to me that teams are able to pry away veteran talent, some of whom are in their prime, like McGahee, for relatively little value.

Now, look at some of the trades involving picks for picks in this year's Draft:
  • Jets trade 25, 59, and 164 to Panthers for 14 and 191
  • Broncos trade 21, 86, and 198 to Jaguars for 17
It's clear that certain teams put a big premium on young guys that probably won't be able to contribute for a few years. Another interesting move was by Houston, who traded two second rounders to the Falcons, as well as swapping first rounders this year, to get Matt Schaub, who has only thrown 161 passes in the NFL in his three years with Atlanta. Then, the Texans promptly signed Schaub to a six-year, $48 million deal that includes $7 million in guaranteed money. Schaub has basically no track record other than the fact that he has "franchise potential." So, Houston decided to mortgage a huge part of its future, both in terms of draft picks and money, to get Schaub, a guy they are hoping will turn their fortunes around. Meanwhile, here is Trent Green, a guy who had thrown for 4,000 yards in three consecutive seasons before suffering a concussion stemming from a hit in Week 1 of the '06 season, who just went for a fifth-round pick, and will probably end up signing a deal worth about $3-4 million over two years. Personally, I think Schaub will be a good quarterback in this league, but if you really wanted to make an immediate impact, a guy like Green would have been perfect, especially when you consider the Texans did relatively little to upgrade its O-Line, meaning a guy like Schaub, who has little experience, will have that much less time to get adjusted to the flow of the offensive, than Green, who, although passinb behind one of the better lines in the league, still would probably have a much smoother transition into making split-second decisions. Even though he missed almost half of last season, Green still had a 61.1% completion rate. Yes, he had more INTs than TDs (7 to 9), but the Chiefs' receivers are garbage, and if Green had guys like Andre Johnson and Eric Moulds to pass to, I would think that the numbers would have been a lot better in comparison to throwing to Eddie Kennison and Sammie Parker. Perhaps this move will work out for the Texans, but don't expect an immediate turnaround, the kind that a veteran like Trent Green would have had a better chance to provide.

So I know we're living in a country that allows us the freedom of speech, which I use to the utmost degree, but someone's got to get a hold of Gary Sheffield and tell him to shut up, or get some advisement before going public with some of the racially charged things he says. In a recent interview with GQ, Sheffield was quoted as saying the following:

"When you see a black face on TV and they start talking, English comes out. That’s what I said. I ain’t taking a shot at them or nothing. I’m just telling it like it is...What I called is that you’re going to see more black faces, but there ain’t no English going to be coming out. ... (It’s about) being able to tell (Latin players) what to do — being able to control them...Where I’m from, you can’t control us.”

I will say this in Sheffield's defense: The number of African-American players in the league has definitely gone down...but is it for the reasons Sheffield is saying? I'm going to have to go with an emphatic "no." First of all, it's a rarity that I delve into anything dealing in race relations, but after hearing these comments, I felt like I had to say something. Yes, the percentages are down (in a study done by George Willis of the New York Post, the percentage of African-American players in the majors was at 8.4% in 2006, which was down from 10% in 2002, and 19% in 1995), but it's not because management feels they can't "control" African-Americans. Simply put, the talent pool of African-American players has shrunk over the past decade, and it's not due to racism or anything like that, at least, again, in my opinion, but due to the fact that, as time progresses, kids in the inner-city have been given more opportunities to do more things than they have in the past. Unlike now, sports were on a limited scale, with baseball, basketball, and football being the only kind of sports that kids could play in the city, but as we talk about the present, and 2007, with an advancement of after-school programs, and a sizable portion of money being put into the education of inner-city kids, who, at one point, were not given the opportunities they have now to express themselves in something besides baseball, African-Americans now have things like the arts and music as a means to use their creativity and imagination. In the Latin countries, there is not the kind of emphasis being put on education that there is in this country. I think that African-Americans still can prosper in baseball, but here's the thing: They have the ability now to prosper in so many more things besides baseball that the numbers have been driven down. Due to the fact that these kids in Latin America are under the impression, and I have to say they are probably right given their situation, that the only way for them to make a life for themselves and for their families is by becoming great at baseball, or another sport like soccer, and make their money through that. There isn't the kind of outreach being done in these countries as there is here. To me, this is why there are more Latin players now than there ever have been. Yes, Major League Baseball is definitely exploiting this, and the numbers don't lie (29.4% in the majors, an all-time high), but they are exploiting this for a reason other than what Sheffield is saying. The reason is because the depth of talent in these countries is far superior to what we have here. Also, another thing is that these players are playing at a higher level than the ones that Americans are playing, which means that these kids are more "pro-ready," and that a team can see a return on their investment sooner and more inexpensively than they would an American high-schooler regardless of race. In keeping with that, the less amount of time a player needs to spend in the minors is the less amount of money a team needs to spend on their development. So, it is more a financial reason, and not a race reason, that there is a growing number of Hispanic players coming into the league that African-Americans. If we didn't have the kind of programs and allowance of abilities of those living in the city that we do, then maybe the amount of African-Americans would rise, but in an overall sense, it would hinder the progression of the whole, because there are plenty of kids who don't necessarily view sports the way someone like myself does, and without the kind of funding being put into their education, they would never be able to fully express their abilities to the world, which I think has a lot more relevance in the world than baseball ever will.

I'm going to do a recap of the Stanley Cup tomorrow, and also, maybe some other grumblings, but for now, I have to go find a job. So stay tight, I'll be coming at you real soon. Take care now. Peace.

~Mell-o

Monday, June 04, 2007

Talk About Your All Time Backfires

"My love must be a kind of blind love
I can't see anyone but you."

Wow. That's really all I can say to sum up what happened last night. In what I have deemed a "street wandering" game, the Yankees were able to comeback from a 5-4 deficit to beat the Sox 6-5, taking two of three in what could very well have been a season-changing series for the Yanks, who now sit 12 1/2 back. Sure, it seems like a lot of games, but again, remember who you're dealing with. It's not technically over yet, and we may have done a little bit to "awaken a sleeping giant." Sure, they're old, they're hurt, but on last check, they wear pinstripes, and for whatever reason, those lines seem to seek into the bloodstream of whoever is wearing them, forcing them to play over their potential, especially in clutch situations (it may have taken a leave of absence in 2004 though). Although yesterday was totally devastating, it not surprise me in the least bit that it went down the way it did. In fact, if you're a Red Sox fan through and through, what honestly can surprise you anymore? The game, seemingly, was where we wanted it. Jonathan Papelbon, who just got Jeter to ground out, and Abreu to go down swinging. Then, with an 0-2 count in the top of the ninth, things seemingly were under control. With Mariano Rivera waiting in the wings, and the game tied up, it seemed as though we were going to get into an epic confrontation with the man who once was considered the best closer in the game, with the guy who now holds that title. We were a strike away from that happening, and then, that Yankee magic reared its ugly head again, and hope was officially gone for the Sox. We've seen it before. The Sox were just one strike away from sending the game to the bottom half of the ninth, and although the score was tied at five, there was a great confidence considering who was coming up the next inning (Ortiz, Ramirez, Youkilis)...but the Sox never got to that point. Sure, they still had the same order coming up, but being down a run, it simply has a different feel, especially against Rivera, who, despite maybe having lost a mile per hour or two, is still a great pitcher, and his season has been saved due to the fact that he has built up the confidence that he had in seasons past, but seemed to be lacking this year, especially in the first month. In any situation, you would much rather be heading into the ninth all tied up instead of being in any kind of deficit. So this brings us back to that 0-2 pitch to Rodriguez. Pap threw it exactly where he wanted it, the gun read 95 MPH, everything seemingly was perfect...and then, what was "perfect" turned into the Sox', and their fans', worst nightmare. Here was A-Rod, a guy who everyone in Red Sox Nation belittles on an hourly basis (daily would not really sum up how bad we ride the guy), and, basically, Public Enemy #1 on every non-Yankee fans' list (Bonds may have some argument on that one), and this is the guy to do it to us? Sweet irony is all I can say...well it's not really sweet at all, but irony definitely describes what happened last night. Sure, A-Rod is a talented player. On this site, I broke down and called him the best player in the game today because...well...he just is, but with that being said, there is no way I figured he would park one off of Papelbon, the newest "favorite son" in New England, especially on an 0-2 pitch. I just assumed that Pap was going to blow smoke by him, and that we would end up in the bottom of the ninth, and pull out a victory over Rivera, but it simply was not meant to be that way. There are some instances where I really wish that wall out by the bullpen was a foot or two higher. A-Rod's hit just seemed to keep carrying and carrying, and for the majority of that shot, I thought "ok, extra bases, no big deal...we'll get Posada...hopefully, and then that will be it," but it didn't work out like that at all. The ball barely cleared the fence, A-Rod trotted around the bases, Yankees fans went crazy, and for those of us pulling for the good guys, we were stunned and silent (this effect is magnified when you're at a Boston bar, and there is a majority that take ragging on A-Rod to an art form). So the Yanks, especially A-Rod, get the last laugh in the series, one New York desperately needed to at least reassure themselves that they are still in it. Personally, I would have wanted to see the game end up a better way, but truthfully, I expected the Yankees to take two of three in this series. In the long run, two wins against us is going to go a long way for them, and therefore, they were fighting in that game like their season was on the line, because, in many ways, it was. If the Yanks left Fenway and lost two of three, putting them down 14 1/2 games, they would have gone into U.S. Cellular on Monday at an all-time low. There would basically have been no recovery from that. Now, in taking two of three, not only has New York gained ground, but it has raised numerous issues about both clubs. Going into last night, Pettitte had been dominant against the Sox in his career, and when he took the ball last night, he probably realized that his bullpen was hurting from Saturday's game, especially Scott Proctor, their best middle reliever, who had to have been shell-shocked from all that went on. Therefore, it was just assumed that if the Sox could get to him and have a lead, that the Yanks' 'pen would break down again, and the Sox would hold their lead until the end...and then the exact opposite happened. True, the Sox were able to get to Pettitte early, as they, despite not scoring any runs, were able to drive up Pettitte's pitch count and ultimately, that led to his undoing in the fifth, where the Sox got three consecutive singles from 'Tek, Wily Mo, and Coco to load up the bases. Then, Dustin Pedroia, again, came through with a bases-clearing double to center, making the score 4-3. Then, Papi came up and hit a liner out to right, which Abreu somehow misplayed, leading to Pedroia scoring, and Ortiz ending up on third, although you have to think that anyone else, even a healthy Papi, would have wound up at home, but because Ortiz's hamstrings have been acting up, he couldn't quite make it happen. In any event, Youk was able to drive him in via sacrifice fly, giving the Sox their first advantage of the game at 5-4. Pettitte only lasted 4 1/3, giving up five earned on seven hits, and could only throw 83 pitches. So the bullpen came in, and it was almost a given that they could muster two or three more runs to cushion the lead, but the problem was that the Yanks' bullpen actually decided to make a guest cameo last night, and gave up no earned runs over the last 4 2/3 innings. Simply amazing. Throwing in everyone but Proctor, they were able to keep the Sox to just four hits. Then, over this time, two of the Sox' best guys from the bullpen, Pap and Okajima, gave up the tying and winning runs. First, Okajima, who came into relieve Brendan Donnelly for whatever reason (Donnelly came on to face A-Rod, got him to pop out, then was yanked in favor of Hideki to pitch to Posada). Hideki blew his first save of his career when he gave up a single to Matsui in the beginning of the eighth, then Robinson Cano, who I'm convinced would be an outstanding player if he didn't make so many bonehead plays, came through with an RBI triple to knot the score at five. So now I'm thinking "ok, if it comes down to bullpen vs. bullpen, I'm not scared." Well, perhaps I took the Yanks a little too lightly on this. As Okajima was able to get through the rest of the eighth, Bruney was brought in for the bottom half, and, although he got himself into a bit of a jam with Crisp on second and Lugo on first with two outs, still pitched tremendously, as he had done all series, and really, all year long. Bruney was able to get out of it, sending the game into the ninth, and the rest, as they say, is history. Still, the Sox have a big lead, but this was definitely a big side-track to Boston's quest to win a division title and finally dethrone the Yanks, who have won nine straight dating back to 1998.

One of my articles from a couple of days ago was titled "Should I Stay Or Should I Go?," which of course was in reference to the ongoing saga that is Kobe Bryant and his indecision. Well, you can throw another name to that list. Billy Donovan really has me completely thrown here, and I don't think I'm the only one. Since signing a huge, multi-year deal to coach the Magic last week, Billy Donovan has requested that he be released from that contract, as, apparently, he wants to return to Gainesville to coach the Gators. I mean...I don't get it. What is going on in this guy's head. Who are you, Bobby Cremins? (see, I get those USC references in there when I can, if you don't know, now you know). The point is that Donovan is totally suspect now no matter what happens. Even if he goes back to Florida, I would think this is going to affect his public perception everywhere outside of Gator Nation. If he ever had any intentions of ever coaching in the NBA, they have been greatly altered after this latest debacle. You know, he may have failed, but still, at one point in time, if you are truly a great coach, and you have aspirations of coaching at the next level, what is the point of going back to the college game when you are offered a pro deal? I think Donovan actually believed that there was going to be a "better" situation that would come along in the NBA, and when that came, he didn't want to be held down by a contract with Orlando. I think that he was trying to hold out for a position in perhaps L.A. or another playoff contender, which would have made his transition from college, where he was at the coaching pinnacle, to the NBA a lot easier. Going from a great team to another great team, Donovan would not have to endure the hardships that many before him had to endure. However, here's the thing about that: How can he tell if Florida is still going to be any good by the time th). So do contracts mean anything anymore? And also, what could have possibly changed Donovan's mind in three days? The fact that Orlando has no first round pick this year? The fact that Hedo Turkoglu is their second best player? I mean really, what happened? See, I really think Donovan believes that, as a coach, he's probably peeked. Realistically, what else can he do? He knows he's got basically no chance of three-peating next year, and furthermore, his next run at greatness may be off in the far distance, so what's holding him back? Truth be told, I really think he took a look at his mentor, Rick Pitino, and saw what happened to him when he went to the pros, and decided that this was not the right step for him...but still, he signed the contract, and then, poof, he's gone...it's magic! Ok, that wasat opportunity comes around? Sure, Florida always will come through with a good record, but will they ever get the kind of talent to make another big run in March? In any event, if this was the case, and mind you, I have absolutely no idea what is going on in this guy's head (few do), but if this was the case, he would be taking an incredibly big chance, because he had to have known that there was going to be a public backlash for recanting on the contract and returning to U of F, and with this backlash, Donovan likely will be levied with a five-year ban from coaching in the NBA to cover Orlando, who had him under control for five years, but if they decide to release him from his contract, it could almost be labeled as "collusion" if he returned before those five years were up. I'm going to leave it at this: I have always felt that once someone signs a contract, that should be the end of it. If you feel like you're not making enough money, that's too bad. If you want more, work your butt off under your original deal, and then, when re-negotiations come around, your body of work will determine if you are "owed" more money. You should honor a signed contract, even if in your heart of hearts, you are having second thoughts about it. Call me old-fashioned, but I still believe in loyalty and being true to your word, two things that were missing from these dealings.

And then there were two. With the first game of the NBA Finals coming up on Thursday, it's time for a bit of a breakdown. San Antonio has simply been cruising along in the playoffs, bouncing Denver, Phoenix, and Utah, all with relative ease. What has been interesting is that they have basically allowed the "star" player on each of those teams to have huge numbers, and yet, they were dominant. Here's a look at the best player on each of those teams, including their regular season stats against the Spurs, and their stats when they played them in the postseason:

Carmelo Anthony
  • Regular Season: 15.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 0.0 apg (only one game, so not too much can be taken from that)
  • Playoffs: 26.8 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 1.2 apg
Steve Nash
  • Regular Season: 17.7 ppg, 9.7 apg, 3.7 rpg
  • Playoffs: 21.3 ppg, 12.7 apg, 3.7 rpg
Deron Williams
  • Regular Season: 15.8 ppg, 5.8 apg, 3.3 rpg
  • Playoffs: 25.8 ppg, 7.8 apg, 3.6 rpg
So, basically, the strategy was "we'll let these guy get theirs, and as long as we are able to lock down the rest of the team, no one man can beat us." This is a fascinating concept, especially when you consider who is coming into town to play the Spurs in the Finals. The Cavs were able to comeback from an 0-2 deficit to win four straight over Detroit, capturing their first ever Eastern Conference title. You don't have to be smart like the guy I pretend to be to realize that the focus is King James, and the rest of the team is basically along for the ride. Sure, Gibson, Hughes, and Verejao have been nice compliments, but there's absolutely no way the Cavs will have any kind of chance against the Spurs unless LeBron plays even better than he played against Detroit, because let's face it: Detroit is a good team, maybe even a great team, but San Antonio is just a much better team all-around than Detroit is. They have it all. They can beat you down low with Duncan, who is arguably the greatest power forward of all time (Karl Malone may have him beat...for now), and they can go outside to Parker and Ginobili, which is where they do most of their damage, not only from an offensive standpoint, but also on the defensive side of the ball. I've always liked the kind of heart Ginobili brings to the game. He can play bigger than his abilities in clutch situations, so the playoffs suit him very well. Also, the Spurs have a guy in Bruce Bowen who is a feisty little defender, finishing second three years in a row for the NBA Defensive Player of the Year, and has made the All-NBA Defensive teams seven years in a row. The strategy to let the star have their way will probably have to change in this game though. LeBron James has tried to prove that he can single-handedly drive his team to victory, and although I fully expect James to have great individual statistics, in the end, I think the Spurs will simply have too many weapons for the Cavs to last in this series. I do see the series going to six games though, which is an incredible feat for a bunch of first-timers in the Finals. James is super-human right now though, so anything is possible.

The NBA Pre-Draft Camp has come to a close, and with its combine complete, and all those who want to make the jump locked in, I am going to preview the NBA Draft. Of course, this is a sore subject for me based on the fact that we're somehow picking 5th. What was interesting was that the three worst teams in the league, Memphis, Boston, and Milwaukee, each got the absolute worst drafting spot they could possibly get, and all three, at one point or another, were accused of "tanking" games at the end of the year in order to wind up with #1 or #2. It's really at this point where I have to suggest that the NBA scrap its lottery system, because it's becoming apparent that the worst teams are not getting the kind of help they really need. With Oden and Durant going to Portland and Seattle, the NBA is also going to lose a ton of revenue due to the fact that half of their season's games will be on at like 10 at night, with half of the country asleep or having too much of a good time to remember the game. Oh well, I can complain all I want, but unless the Celts pull off a mega-deal, they're not getting either, and we're left wallowing in the deep end for another decade. Alright, well, on to the preview. First, I'm going to run down position rankings, then, a two-round mock draft, covering every pick in the Draft. Of course, trades are going to happen, so nothing is etched in stone, but here's how I see it happening right now:

Player Rankings:

Point Guard:
  1. Mike Conley, Fr, Ohio St., 6-1, 175
  2. Javaris Crittenton, Fr, Georgia Tech, 6-5, 194
  3. Acie Law IV, Sr, Texas A&M, 6-4, 186
  4. Taurean Green, Jr, Florida, 6-1, 173
  5. Gabe Pruitt, Jr, Southern Cal, 6-4, 170
  6. Jared Jordan, Sr, Marist, 6-2, 187
  7. Zabian Dowdell, Sr, Virginia Tech, 6-3, 200
  8. Dominic James, So, Marquette, 6-0, 175
  9. Ramon Sessions, Jr, Nevada, 6-4, 185
  10. Bobby Brown, Sr, Cal State Fulerton, 6-2, 170
  11. Sean Singletary, Jr, Virginia, 6-0, 175
  12. Petteri Koponen, Finland, 6-4, 194
  13. Brandon Heath, Sr, San Diego St., 6-4, 181
  14. Aaron Brooks, Sr, Oregon, 6-0, 161
  15. Bo McCalebb, Sr, New Orleans, 6-0, 180
Shooting Guard:
  1. Corey Brewer, Jr, Florida, 6-8, 185
  2. Nick Young, Sr, Southern Cal, 6-7, 206
  3. Rodney Stuckey, Jr, Eastern Washington
  4. Daequan Cook, So, Ohio St., 6-6, 203
  5. Aaron Afflalo, Jr, UCLA, 6-5, 210
  6. Marco Belinelli, Italy, 6-6, 200
  7. Morris Almond, Sr, Rice, 6-6, 215
  8. Trey Johnson, Sr, Jackson St., 6-6, 216
  9. D.J. Strawberry, Jr, Maryland, 6-5, 199
  10. Rudy Fernandez, Spain, 6-6, 172
  11. Marcelus Kemp, Sr, Nevada, 6-5, 210
  12. JamesOn Curry, Jr, Oklahoma St., 6-3, 190
  13. J.R. Reynolds, Sr, Virginia, 6-3, 188
  14. Marko Tomas, Croatia, 6-8, 210
  15. Brad Newley, Australia, 6-6, 190
Small Forward:
  1. Kevin Durant, Fr, Texas, 6-10, 190
  2. Julian Wright, So, Kansas, 6-9, 220
  3. Jeff Green, Jr, Georgetown, 6-10
  4. Al Thornton, Sr, Florida St., 6-7, 221
  5. Thaddeus Young, Fr, Georgia Tech, 6-8, 210
  6. Derrick Byars, Sr, Vanderbilt, 6-7, 220
  7. Demetris Nichols, Sr, Syracuse, 6-8, 211
  8. Alando Tucker, Sr, Wisconsin, 6-5, 205
  9. Jared Dudley, Sr, Boston College, 6-7, 219
  10. Marcus Williams, So, Arizona, 6-7, 207
  11. Reyshawn Terry, Sr, North Carolina, 6-8, 222
  12. Wilson Chandler, So, DePaul, 6-8, 230
  13. Dominic McGuire, Jr, Fresno St., 6-9, 220
  14. Joao Gomes, Portugal, 6-7, 200
  15. Sun Yue, China, 6-9, 210
Power Forward:
  1. Al Horford, Jr, Florida, 6-10, 246
  2. Yi Jianlian, China, 7-0, 246
  3. Brandan Wright, Fr, North Carolina, 6-10, 210
  4. Joakim Noah, Jr, Florida, 7-0, 223
  5. Jason Smith, Jr, Colorado State, 7-0, 233
  6. Tiago Splitter, Brazil, 7-0, 240
  7. Glen Davis, Jr, LSU, 6-9, 290
  8. Josh McRoberts, So, Duke, 6-10, 230
  9. Nick Fazekas, Sr, Nevada, 6-11, 225
  10. Ali Traore, France, 6-10, 247
  11. Kyrylo Fesenko, Ukraine, 7-0, 245
  12. Stephane Lasme, Sr, UMass, 6-7, 213
  13. Herbert Hill, Sr, Providence, 6-10, 232
  14. James Mays, Jr, Clemson, 6-9, 219
  15. Ivan Radenovic, Sr, Arizona, 6-10, 224
Center:
  1. Greg Oden, Fr, Ohio St., 7-0, 245
  2. Spencer Hawes, Fr, Washington, 7-0, 230
  3. Sean Williams, So, Boston College, 6-10, 230
  4. Aaron Gray, Sr, Pittsburgh, 7-0, 270
  5. Marc Gasol, Spain, 7-0, 265
  6. DeVon Hardin, So, California, 6-11, 235
  7. Artem Zabelin, Russia, 7-2, 200
  8. Stanko Barac, Bosnia, 7-1, 235
  9. Kyle Visser, Jr, Wake Forest, 6-11, 244
  10. Darryl Watkins, Sr, Syracuse, 6-11, 260
And now, onto the Mock Draft:

First Round:
  1. Portland- Greg Oden
  2. Seattle- Kevin Durant
  3. Atlanta- Mike Conley
  4. Memphis- Al Horford
  5. Boston- Yi Jianlian
  6. Milwaukee- Brandan Wright
  7. Minnesota- Corey Brewer
  8. Charlotte- Joakim Noah
  9. Chicago- Julian Wright
  10. Sacramento- Jeff Green
  11. Atlanta- Spencer Hawes
  12. Philadelphia- Al Thornton
  13. New Orleans- Nick Young
  14. L.A. Clippers- Javaris Crittenton
  15. Detroit- Thaddeus Young
  16. Washington- Rodney Stuckey
  17. New Jersey- Sean Williams
  18. Golden State- Jason Smith
  19. L.A. Lakers- Acie Law IV
  20. Miami- Taurean Green
  21. Philadelphia- Aaron Gray
  22. Charlotte- Daequan Cook
  23. New York- Tiago Splitter
  24. Phoenix- Glen Davis
  25. Utah- Derrick Byars
  26. Houston- Josh McRoberts
  27. Detroit- Marc Gasol
  28. San Antonio- DeVon Hardin
  29. Phoenix- Aaron Afflalo
  30. Philadelphia- Nick Fazekas
Second Round:
  1. Seattle- Artem Zabelin
  2. Boston- Demetris Nichols
  3. San Antonio- Alando Tucker
  4. Dallas- Gabe Pruitt
  5. Seattle- Jared Dudley
  6. Golden State- Marco Belinelli
  7. Portland- Ali Traore
  8. Philadelphia- Jared Jordan
  9. Orlando- Zabian Dowdell
  10. L.A. Lakers- Stanko Barac
  11. Minnesota- Kyle Visser
  12. Portland- Marcus Williams
  13. New Orleans- Morris Almond
  14. Orlando- Trey Johnson
  15. L.A. Clippers- Kyrylo Fesenko
  16. Golden State- Stephane Lasme
  17. Washington- D.J. Strawberry
  18. L.A. Lakers- Reyshawn Terry
  19. Chicago- Rudy Fernandez
  20. Dallas- Herbert Hill
  21. Chicago- James Mays
  22. Portland- Wilson Chandler
  23. Portland- Marcelus Kemp
  24. Orlando- Ramon Sessions
  25. Utah- Ivan Radenovic
  26. Milwaukee- JamesOn Curry
  27. Detroit- Darryl Watkins
  28. San Antonio- Sean Singletary
  29. Phoenix- Dominic McGuire
  30. Dallas- J.R. Reynolds
These are exciting times for me right now. No, I still don't have a job, but I recently landed a gig writing for Sports Central (link is in...well..."links"). So, I will be contributing there a couple times a month, so I'm really pumped about that. In addition, I will be doing some articles for "The Daily Gamecock," the USC school newspaper, so I'm so happy that I'm getting these opportunities to get my name out there. As Chic would say: "These are the good times." I have all of you to thank for this, because without the support and the feedback, who knows what could have happened? So I'm going to continue to pursue a position in journalism, because this is great, and if I could get paid for it...well, that would be nice, and this is a hell of a lot better than anything to do with finance.

Well, that's going to do it for now kids. Plenty more where that came from, so stay tuned. Thanks for reading. Peace.

~Mell-o

Saturday, June 02, 2007

Sunday, Sunday, Sunday

"Well I tried to make it Sunday, but I got so damn depressed."

Hey now! Just checking in to preview Sunday's game (which hopefully will be the "rubber" game) between the Sox and Yanks. Again, there's a few things out there to discuss. So let's dive in shall we?:

Again, tonight is Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Pistons and the Cavaliers. One of the greatest stories so far this year has been the way LeBron James literally wills his team to victory after victory. With a cast filled with a bunch of sixth men, James has gone above and beyond what anyone since Jordan has done, especially in the playoffs. James, so far, has averaged 26.2 points, 8.3 assists, and 7.9 rebounds a game in the postseason. Simply amazing considering this is only his fourth year in the league. He has already stepped up and claimed the leadership role. He knows that this team will only go as far as he will allow them to, and therefore, not only has good individual numbers, but has also made an attempt to get others, like Ilgauskas, Hughes, and Gibson, involved as much as he can. 8.3 assists for a small forward is unheard of. Here's something else to consider: Throughout the regular season, when James played after one day's rest, he averaged 30.4 points a game. When he gets no rest, 26.2, two days, 23.6, three days, 18.0. So it seems as though James plays at his best when the games are continuous and he still has a feel for the game. When I was thinking about this game, I basically just assumed that James, statistically, was better at home than he was on the road, considering Cleveland is 6-1 at home in the playoffs. However, this actually is not quite the case. In a statistical breakdown, I found that James' home and away splits were actually quite similar. Here's a breakdown of home and away, and another column featuring away games not including his groundbreaking performance in Game 5 at Detroit:

PPG RPG APG FG%

Home
26.29 7.71 8.29 44.44%

Away 26.13 8.13 8.25 43.56%

Away (-Game 5) 23.00 8.00 8.43 40.77%


So, as you can see, James has been great no matter where he played, so the fact that he is playing at home tonight really has no bearing on how well he will play. The only thing that may change him is the fact that he is just one game away from the Finals, somewhere Cleveland has never been before. In many ways, Cleveland is under more pressure to win this game than Detroit. They have been in basically this exact situation already, just one year ago...the circumstances were a little different (conference semis vs. conference finals), but the other implications were the same. Cleveland had a 3-2 series lead on Detroit heading into a Game 6 at Cleveland. James had himself a great night (32-11-5), but the rest of his team did not, as Detroit had four players hit double figures, and barely snuck out with a victory, 84-82. Consider this too: Although Detroit was horrendous at the free-throw line (16-28, 57.1%, most of this having to do with the Wallaces, Rasheed and Ben, who went a combined 4-13), Cleveland was equally as bad from behind the arc (2-12, 16.7%), which ultimately proved to be the difference. With Ben Wallace in Chicago now, their only real physical presence down low is Jason Maxiell and Antonio McDyess (more on his situation later), and Maxiell can barely stay in the game due to ongoing foul trouble issues. Therefore, it has been a much easier road for Cleveland to score in the paint, as they were able to shoot 47.6% from inside 15 feet. When you compare that to when they shot 35.4% in last year's Game 6. With their ability to get more quality shots off down low, Cleveland has a distinct advantage over last year's team, who, again, only lost by 2 points. If James is able to do half of what he did in Game 5, I don't expect Cleveland to have any problem with Detroit. However, if Detroit looks back to the way they neutralized James in Games 1 and 2 (12/34 from the field a 35.3%), then there is the chance Detroit can sneak this one out. The first two games' scores were identical at 79-76. Obviously, the Pistons do not want to get into a shootout with the Cavs. In their two wins, they have scored an average of 79 (duh), and in their three losses, they have averaged 92 points. Yes, this is incredibly strange, but these playoffs have been a little strange for Detroit. When they have won, they averaged 92.5 points. When they lose, they average 91. However, when you throw out the Orlando series, in which they won four straight games, they have averaged 89.5 in the other victories. Again, meaning that when they are able to keep the scoring down, they have a much better chance of pulling out a victory. Last year, however, it was clear that, while Detroit did play a rough style of basketball, the difference between winning and losing was much greater, especially in the Cleveland series, where they averaged 93.3 when they won, 77.7 when they lost. Luckily, Antonio McDyess was able to avoid any suspension that would have kept him out of Game 6, meaning that, in the very least, they will have some presence down low, and although he certainly is not Ben Wallace, he, in the very least, could make the Cavs gameplan for him. In terms of who I think will win, I'm going to go against the grain on this one. I'm gonna stick with the Pistons purely based on the fact that I want to see LeBron in the Finals, much like I wanted to see Oden or Durant in Boston, and so far, the NBA has been screwing with me, so I believe that it will continue to work that way. Look for Chauncey to have a big game as well, because, well, he's good, and of course, was a former Celtic that a certain Coach Pitino didn't see as being fit for his "vision for the future," and traded him in his rookie year. Good work. Did Louisville even make the Big East Tournament last year? "I'm not so sure about that."

So how about what happened in Chicago yesterday? "Holy cow!" That was too good to pass up, sorry. Anyway, I guess Carlos Zambrano and Michael Barrett had a bit of a "difference in opinion," so to speak. After giving up five runs in the fifth inning of yesterday's game against the Braves, Zambrano said something to the effect of "are you out of your mind?" to Barrett, and when Barrett started firing back, things quickly escalated, and ended with Barrett and Zambrano throwing down. Barrett ended up with a cut to his lip and a bruised eye. Zambrano and Barrett both explained that the reason they were fighting was because they are "so close." Yeah, well I guess that's one way of putting it. Another way would be that the Cubs have lost five straight, and are 2-8 in their last 10, netting them a 22-30 record, 7 1/2 behind the division-leading Brewers (what a crazy thing to say). Another way is that Zambrano, who will become a free agent at the end of the year, and was penciled in to make about $14 mil a year with either the Cubs or his new team (and by the way, he still might), is off to a 5-5 start, sporting a 5.62 ERA, quite a difference between his first 12 starts from last year, where, although he had a 3-3 record, his ERA was more than two runs lower (3.42). And yet another way of saying it is that Barrett, who is also in his contract year, is hitting 26 points under his career mark (.241 to .267) and 47 points lower than he was through this many games last year (.288). Also, keep in mind that this is not the first time Barrett has lost his cool in an altercation. Recall when the Cubbies played the White Sox, and Barrett, in a reaction to fellow catcher A.J. Pierzynski's emphatic slap of the plate after a collision on a bang-bang play at home, slugged Pierzynski in the mouth, igniting a bench-clearing brawl between the two teams. So, when you have all those volatile forces coming together, tempers are bound to flare, no matter how "close" you are with the other player. The Cubs, overall, have had a very frustrating season. Soriano has not been worth nearly the amount of money they paid for him (.289, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 8 SB). Prior and Wood again have been total non-factors. They come into today's game with the 11th best bullpen in the NL (4.38 ERA), and are ninth in runs scored (236) despite being third in batting average (.266). The bright spots have been Derrek Lee (.362, 5 HR, 32 RBI), Jason Marquis (5-2, 2.93 ERA) and Rich Hill (4-4, 3.06 ERA). After the off-season spending spree Chicago went on, I'm sure these were not the results they were going for.

Alright, onto the preview of tomorrow's game (8:00 ESPN) that will pit Andy Pettitte against Josh Beckett, a game that has all the implications of being a classic. First, a little bit about Pettitte. Well, he likes pitching against us, and that was apparent in his last start against the Sox at "The Stadium," where he tossed seven strong innings, only allowing one earned despite giving up nine hits and only getting two strikeouts, and got plenty of run support, as Schill got rocked, leading to an 8-3 win for the Yanks. Pettitte has been a lot better than his record may indicate (3-4), especially in his last five starts, where he has pitched seven or more innings, allowing three runs or less in each. Pettitte comes into the game with a 2.51 ERA, 4th in the AL. When you look at the split stats, there's not a whole lot of encouraging things, or too much that the Sox could perhaps take advantage of, against Pettitte. In 24 career starts against the Sox, Pettitte is 14-6 with a 3.10 ERA in 24 career starts, and 5-2 with a 2.92 ERA in 10 starts at Fenway. There are two noticeable statistics in terms of something you may keep an eye on. When Pettitte pitches, opponents are hitting .262 in the first 75 pitches he throws in a game. That number jumps up to .282 when he throws over 75. Again, the key to at least trying to get to Pettitte will be plate discipline and working the count. The biggest thing I can determine about Pettitte is that he is "human" when he is behind in the count. Allow me to break this down for you guys:

Count OBA SLG
1-0 .338 .532
2-0 .351 .619
3-0 .308 .654
0-1 .303 .447
1-1 .304 .441
2-1 .348 .528
3-1 .365 .598
0-2 .179 .251
1-2 .174 .236
2-2 .191 .263
3-2 .234 .313

So it's obvious that getting ahead of Pettitte in the count is the only true way to "get to him." Otherwise, if you are swinging freely (despite the fact that the opposition hits .348 off of his first pitch), and let him control the tempo of the game, forget it. This has been the achilles' heel for the Sox over the years in terms of facing a "finesse" pitcher. The Sox will trot out Josh Beckett, who is the early leader to win the AL Cy Young, has had an incredible year so far, going 8-0 with a 2.65 ERA. The key to Beckett's success has to be how he has been able to keep the ball in the park this year. Last year, going into his start against the Yankees in June, he had already given up 14 homers. This year, just two. A reason for this has been Beckett's ability to trust other pitches outside of his blistering fastball (ok that was a decent pun right there...blister?...ok, maybe not). Anyway, after his "skin irritation" landed him on the DL, he came out in his last start and pitched great, going seven, giving up two runs on just three hits while striking out seven, and only needed to throw 91 pitches, which is an important stat. Beckett has gone over 100 pitches just three times this year, and the good news is that it's not because he hasn't been able to go deep into games, it's just that he hasn't needed to throw a lot of pitches to get outs. He has pitched six or more innings in all but two of his starts, with one of those being the game when he came out due to the skin problem. Again, getting ahead in the count is key to breaking down Beckett, especially when he gets into counts with three balls and less than two strikes (3-0: .571, 3-1: .400). In the regular season, Beckett has been, well, terrible against the Yankees, going 3-2 with an 8.44 ERA in five career starts, including his start against them this year, which was a fight of a start, going 6 2/3, giving up four runs in a 6-4 victory, Beckett's fourth victory of the year. Again, the key for Beckett to get a win tomorrow will be to have a good handle of all his pitches, especially his curveball, which has been awesome this year. Runs will be at a premium, so look for Boston to do some "manufacturing" to get on the scoreboard, a practice that the Sox tend to stay away from for the most part.

Thanks for reading guys. You'll be hearing from me again soon. Have a good one. Peace.

~Mell-o

Friday, June 01, 2007

Scouting Out Saturday's Matchup

"No we did not share a moment at the dinner table."

Saturday's 4:00 game features the two "aces" of their respective rotation, with Mike Mussina going for the Bombers, and Curt Schilling taking the ball for the Sox. Before I break down this match-up, let me get into some other things:

Buster Olney of ESPN is reporting that Mark Teixeira of the Rangers might be traded in the near future, especially if the Rangers continue their last-place ways (currently 19-35, 13 1/2 games back of the Angels). Again, I bring this up because Teixeira would be a commodity that the Yankees would probably be interested in. Also, he's a free agent at the end of the year, and Scott Boras represents him, meaning that the Yankees are going to be one of a few teams that will be able to afford him once he is ready to sign an extension, which is likely to pay him anywhere between $10-12 million per year. If the Yankees are not too far out of it (it's hard to believe, but that actually may be the case in July if things keep going the way they are), I would expect them to make a push for Teixeira, because again, they need a bat at first base since Giambi cannot physically get the job done, and the tandem of Josh Phelps and Minky playing first is not nearly the kind of production you would want from a corner position. Plus, considering the fact that the Yanks are attempting to void out the remainder of Giambi's contract, effectively releasing him from the team, they are going to need a strong, left-handed bat to replace Giambi's presence. Also, consider Teixeira's career at Yankee Stadium. In 22 games, he's hit .308 with four homers and 16 RBIs. Also, playing 81 games with that short porch in right, it could signal a renaissance in his career, which seems to be sliding right now by his standards. In keeping with their attempt to get better at first, they have also contacted the Rockies about former Red Sox offseason target Todd Helton.

Randy Moss took his first few passes from Tom Brady yesterday, and from all accounts from those who attended, their connection was immediate. Remember that it was Brady who jumped on board and made his intentions clear that he wanted the Pats to do everything they could to get Moss. So now that he is officially in the lineup, Brady is probably going to have one of the better years of his career. Adalius Thomas was also at the voluntary workout, where he played both inside and outside linebacker. Plus, when you factor Junior Seau into the equation, you're looking at a scary core of linebackers, and although they are aging (all are above 30), they are still extremely effective in jamming the run, rushing the passer, and dropping back into coverage. The one notable absence was Asante Samuel, and although these workouts were "voluntary," you have to think that Samuel wouldn't have been there even if they were mandatory, as his intentions of signing a long-term deal have not been changed since coming out a few months ago after being assigned the franchise tag. There still has been no update on any kind of change in the contract talks, which at last check, had Samuel and the Pats about $4 million a year off (Samuel wants 10, the Pats have offered 6). The Pats got themselves an insurance policy just in case they cannot resolve the present contract issues in Tory James, so at least there is something positive you may be able to take away if Samuel is let go (by the way, they have until July 15 to negotiate a long-term deal for Samuel because he has been franchised, meaning that if they cannot work out a deal, Samuel will be paid the average of the top five salaries at his position for this year, given that he even plays at all this season, and will then become a free agent once the season is over). In my opinion, I think it's crucial that a deal get done here, but in order for that to be accomplished, both sides are going to have to let up a little bit on their demands. I think that Samuel's feeling on the proceedings are based purely on the deal Nate Clements received from the Niners (8 years, $80 million), and that's how he got his baseline figure to be 10 a year. However, Samuel is not as valuable as Clements is, and the reason for that is that Clements is better in coverage than Samuel based on yards per attempt from the opposing QB (6.1/attempt for Clements, 7.0/attempt for Samuel), and although his 10 interceptions was impressive, it could be interpreted as somewhat of a "fluke" when you consider he picked three in '05 and one in '04. Also, Clements is a factor in the return game, which is something Samuel doesn't give you. Look, I'm as big of a Asante fan as anyone, but for him to ask for 10 a year is just too much for his value. Realistically, I think he should be looking more for about 7.5-8 a year, which I think the Pats, through bonuses and other incentives, would probably be willing to meet. I really think that both sides need to come to the middle on this one, because I believe Samuel can continue to prosper in this system considering the Pats' front seven is probably the best in the league, and will force QBs into mistakes, meaning there will be more chances for Samuel to make plays.

On a sadder note, I want to just take time to pay respects to Marquise Hill, who died a couple of days ago after accidentally drowning in a jet-skiing accident. I watched Hill when he played for LSU, and, of course, saw him in his limited time with the Pats. I obviously didn't know him personally, but from what I can gather, when people have come out and called him "a hero of the community," you can tell that this is going to be a loss that will be felt by a lot of people, including everyone in the Patriots universe. Hill was especially beloved in his home state of Louisiana, where his funeral services will be held tomorrow. Hill was just 24 years old.


Marquise Hill
1982-2007



Going to be hard to continue after that, but I'll give it a shot. On Saturday (game is on FOX for all of my non-New Englanders, so check it out), the Sox and Yanks will matchup for the second of three games in this crucial series. Mike Mussina takes the ball for the Yankees. It's been a mixed bag for the Moose in his history against the Sox. For his career, he is 19-15 with a 3.58 ERA, and an equally impressive 10-7, 3.57 at Fenway Park. An interesting stat about Mussina is opposing batting averages in terms of when they see Mussina. In a batter's first time at the plate this year, they are hitting .325, but when they face Mussina for the second time, the average dips to .265, and then, once you reach the third or more plate appearances, the average rises back up to .310. This represents two things. First, hitters have been able to get to Mussina early. This is definitely a key for the Sox. If they are able to show discipline in their first at-bats, and get a feel of what Mussina is throwing for that particular game. Jumping out to an early lead will be crucial in this game, because once the order goes around once, Mussina seems to settle in, so those early runs will make a huge difference, because due to the fact that Mussina will be on a relatively short leash given the fact he has not been able to go more than 6 2/3 in any of his seven starts this year, most of which can be attributed to the strained hamstring he suffered earlier this season. He is on a budget of about 100 pitches, so if the Sox can be patient, and make him throw about 20 pitches an inning, they will likely be able to get to their bullpen, which has been not only ineffective this year, but overused as well. Curt Schilling is looking to capitalize on his last outing against the Indians, where he went seven innings, allowing just six hits, one run, and struck out 10 batters. Schill has been good at home, going 2-0 in six starts with a 3.12 ERA, including 36 of his 60 strikeouts. Here are some interesting stats to consider about Schill. When batters are facing him, they are hitting .432 on the first pitch, and this is due to the fact that, although Schilling has been able to pump his fastball in at around 90-91, his ball simply doesn't have any movement on it, and the Yankees have beat him around for it. In two starts this year, Schill is 0-1 with a 6.92 ERA with a 1.62 WHIP (you want your WHIP to be around 1, and although .62 doesn't seem like a lot, consider that if Schilling pitched nine innings and gave up one hit an inning with no walks, his WHIP would be one, but, at 1.62, you're talking about 5-6 more hits or walks, which accounts for about 2-3 runs, so .62 is a lot). Also, Schill gets himself into trouble when he gets behind in the count. In a 1-1 count, batters are hitting .407, and at 2-1, are hitting .438, so it's crucial for Curt to get into pitcher's counts (0-1: .229, 0-2: .192, 1-2: .136). It's also apparent that Schill does not have the kind of stamina that he once had, as hitter are hitting .359 between Schill's 75th and 100th pitches. So, it is vitally important for the Sox to jump out on Mussina early also for this reason. With Schill pitching at home, he has a tremendous advantage no matter who he is playing, as he comes into this game with a 27-8 record. So it looks to be a tremendous match-up, with two guys who have performed very well throughout their career at "the friendly confines."

Again, hope everyone has a great weekend. What a way to start off June! Also, Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals is tomorrow, and if LeBron can lead the Cavs over the Pistons, you are looking at one of the most intriguing series in a long time, with the Spurs and their team efforts vs. the budding super-duper star and his cast of merry men. Hopefully, this all comes to fruition, because I really don't need to see Detroit/San Antonio again. Spice it up a little huh?! Alright, take it easy now. Peace.

~Mell-o

Sox/Yanks: Round 3

"We don't cause trouble, we don't bother nobody."

The arch-rivals square off tonight in what could be a make-or-break series for the struggling Bombers. First though, I would be remised if I didn't talk about what happened last night in the NBA.

LeBron James made his case for being the best player in the league last night, turning in perhaps the greatest playoff performance of my lifetime, as the Cavs pulled off a miracle win at The Palace in double OT, 109-107. In the win, James simply took over in the final minutes of regulation, scoring 11 in the last frame to push the game to overtime. Once the free basketball started, you might as well have called it LeBron vs. Detroit. James controlled the tempo of the game in both overtimes. Not only was James driving to the dish, but he was also making impossible jump shots from the perimeter to pull his team from behind and, in the end, put them on top for good. In the end, James scored Cleveland's final 25 points, with his final line looking like this:

18/33 FG (54.5%), 10/14 FT (71.4%), 48 PTS, 9 REB, 7 AST, 2 TO

Simply amazing stuff. My first instinct when picking this series was that James was a tremendous factor, but that he alone could not will the Cavs to a series victory, but now, with Cleveland being just one win away from reaching the Finals to play the Spurs, it seems as though I severely underestimated the kind of impact he could have on this series. The Pistons simply do not have any answer for James, as he has been able to penetrate down low, and has had his jumper working seemingly non-stop since Game 3, when the series was 2-0 in favor of the Pistons, and many were questioning whether or not James could rebound off of two mediocre starts. Well, it appears as though James has answered the call, and answered it with vengeance. In Game 3, James nearly compiled a triple-double (32-9-9) and scored 12 in the fourth, including a huge slam over Rasheed Wallace, for an 88-82 Cleveland win. In Game 4, James, in an attempt to get more of his team involved, dished out 11 assists to go along with 25 points and seven boards, as the Cavs knotted the series up at two games a piece with a 91-87 victory. This game also signaled the coming-out party for Daniel Gibson, who played 35 minutes off the bench, scoring 21 points, going 11-11 from the free-throw line. With the breakout performance of Gibson in Game 4, he proved that he could be the guy coming off the bench to give the kind of spark the Cavs need to overcome the depth of the Pistons. With all that being said though, there is nothing you can say to detract from James' outstanding performance in Game 3. As of right now, the only comparable playoff performance I can think of was Magic's game against the Sixers in the 1980 Finals as a rookie replacing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar at center, where he scored 42 points, grabbed 15 boards, and handed out seven assists as the Lakers captured the title in six games. James has all-of-a-sudden been thrusted into the same spotlight as prolific performers like Magic, Larry, and Michael in terms of players who have simply willed their teams to victory by taking over in crunch time. With the Pistons on the ropes going back to Cleveland, I don't see James letting up, and further more, I still don't think Detroit has any effective means to stopping him, so I think Cleveland's momentum will be enough to get by the Pistons, and claim a spot in the Finals for the first time in franchise history.

So, of course, how could I not talk about the upcoming Sox and Yanks series taking place at Fenway this weekend. Everyone knows the story by now. The Sox have jumped out to a 13 1/2 game lead on the Yanks, and with it not being "early" any more (we are in June after all), panic has clearly set in in the Bronx, and now, with yet another injury to deal with (the "Giambino" was just put on the DL with a heel injury, which will sideline him for at least three weeks), the Yanks are reeling, and although it's still only June, if the Yankees cannot take two of three in this series, then they are going to have a real tough time even attempting to make their way to the postseason in my opinion. If the Bombers leave Fenway after losing the series, they could be as many as 16 1/2 games back, and although their schedule is getting "easier" after their trip to Boston, there is simply too much for the Yanks to overcome if they end up getting swept this weekend. My partialness to the Sox still has not completely blinded me yet though, and I actually expect that NY will take two of three in the series, and it's not as though I am at all rooting for this outcome, but to me, this series, although critical for the Sox in terms of adding to their division record, is so much bigger for the Yankees from the perspective that they cannot lose this series. I know it, they know it, the Sox know it...everyone knows it. If they leave even 14 1/2 back, they're pretty much done. They probably won't be able to sniff the postseason unless something goes haywire in the Central, where it appears the Wild Card will be coming out of. On Friday, Wake will be pitching against Wang in a mirror match from a week-and-a-half ago, where Wang came out and dominated the Sox over 6 1/3 innings, and the bullpen actually was able to throw shutout ball in the final 2 2/3 to preserve the win. Wake looked terrible on the hill, giving up four quick runs in the first two to put the Sox in a 4-0 deficit. Again, in a Wake start, the offense looked terrible, which has been a common trend throughout this season (3.94 runs per start; compare that to 8.54 for Beckett, 8.04 for Dice-K, and 4.69 for Schill). A reason why the Yankees have been so successful against Wake (his record is 9-15 with a 4.76 ERA in 25 career starts) has been the fact that the Yanks are willing to make Wake throw strikes. Clearly, the bulk of Wakefield's success is all about his ability to make hitters swing and miss at balls outside of the zone due to the drop off his knuckler going away from the zone. The last game, in particular, it was clear that this was the strategy all along, and it paid off, as Wake was touched up for six runs in five innings, giving up six runs, including two homers to A-Rod and Giambi, and threw 109 pitches overall, with only 59 going for strikes. Wake has struggled recently, giving up 15 runs in his last three games, bumping his ERA from 1.79 to 3.36. Another important thing to note is Wake's effectiveness with runners on. With the bases empty, batters are hitting .180 off him, but with runners in scoring position, the opposition is hitting .320, a pretty sharp increase for sure. Wake's only chance is if the Yanks suddenly disregard their original gameplan and become free-swingers. I just don't see that happening though, so it will be up to the Sox offense to try and comeback from their last game against Wang. The Sox main problem was their inability to drive in runs with men on base. They were able to get seven hits off Wang and draw three walks, but they were 1-9 with runners in scoring position, and left 12 men on base, with Papi providing the only two RBIs on the game. Wang is definitely beatable, as he allows a lot of baserunners, but has a knack at being able to avoid a lot of trouble. Also, he has gone six innings in each of his seven starts this year, so clearly, he has had the ability to get people out in key situation despite his lack of control. This is one of the games that I'm basically 50/50 on. Sure, the Sox could come out and bash their way to a win, which is what they're going to have to do, but I think that pitching will drive this series, and in particular, the effectiveness of the starting pitching. If a team can get six-to-seven strong innings from its starters, it will take a lot of pressure off the bullpen, which clearly would affect New York even more than Boston when talking about keeping the bullpens out of the game. If the Sox get through six or seven with a lead, then it's going to be very tough for the Yanks to come back given the Donnelly/Okajima/Papelbon trio backing the bullpen. I will be posting my preview of Saturday's game in the next couple of hours, but I'll let you guys pour over this for now.

A couple of encouraging signs came from yesterday's telecast of the PawSox on NESN. First, Jon Lester threw another bullpen session, and although he is battling forearm cramping, it appears as though it is just as a matter of time before he rejoins the big club in Boston (he was even seen wearing a Boston pullover). When Lester is able to return to the starting rotation, it will effectively bump back the bullpen. With Tavarez reclaiming his role as the "long man," you will be seeing more of him and less of a guy like Joel Piniero, who has struggled mightily this year, especially at home (6.75 ERA in six appearances, compared to a 3.86 ERA in 12 appearances on the road) where it seems as though he cannot get his bearings on how to pitch at Fenway. Lester also provides a lefty that is lacking in the rotation right now, which is huge when you consider facing a team like the Yankees and how they would have to adjust to him (Damon, Abreu, Giambi, Matsui, Cano...all lefties). Another guy that will help out the bullpen once he is back to full strength will be Mike Timlin, who made an appearance in yesterday's game against Columbus (who is now affiliated with the Nationals after being the AAA team for the Yankees for 28 years). After giving up runs in each of his two prior appearances (two runs on the 27th against Syracuse, and one run against the Clippers on Tuesday night). Timlin looked sharp in terms of his location, and in terms of velocity, he was in the mid-80s consistently, so he will probably need one or two more rehab stints to grow his strength up to pitching in the high-80s to low-90s, where he has been for the last few years. Again, Timlin will create a bump in the bullpen, and when you consider the bullpen's ERA is already the best in the AL, having both Timlin and Tavarez added to that group will probably enhance the effectiveness of that unit. Manny Delcarmen, yet another guy you will eventually see in the bullpen, also pitched strong yesterday, hitting the mid-90s on occasion in striking out four batters over 1 2/3 innings. Delcarmen, after struggling for a good portion of April and early May, has settled down in dramatic fashion, not allowing a run in his last six appearances, while striking out 12. On one final note, yesterday was my first opportunity to watch Jacob Ellsbury this year. You cannot underestimate the potential impact Ellsbury may have in terms of what the Sox will do in terms of a centerfielder. It is clear that Coco Crisp, although a wiz with the glove, simply does not have the kind of bat that a guy like Theo Epstein, who is all about sabermetrics and producing runs, wants in his lineup. Clearly, there is going to be a tough decision to be made at the end of the season. I would say that the Sox are going to call up Ellsbury at the end of the season, once the rosters expand to 40, to expose him to some major league pitching. Ellsbury will likely struggle in his first go-around, but I don't think the basis of the Sox' decision will be based on that. It will be based on three things:
1.) Is this the best we're going to get out of Coco? If so,
2.) Would putting Ellsbury out in center to start the 2008 season be too soon? Or will he react much like Dustin Pedroia has this year, where he struggled out of the gate, but over time, has settled into his position and role on the team? Or,
3.) Ellsbury is being groomed for potential trade bait, and the Sox are really looking at grabbing Ichiro, which would create an even bigger Japanese presence on the Sox. Or, they may go after Andruw Jones, who is struggling right now, meaning that his price is dropping by the day, while Torri Hunter's price tag, which was presumed to be the cheapest of the three, is now going up rapidly.

These are the decisions that will have to be made. Keep in mind the Sox' reluctance to go over the luxury tax threshold, as although they spent in a frenzy in the offseason, it has already been known that next year, they are looking to stand pat with the players they already have, with the main possible exceptions being Curt Schilling and Mike Lowell, who account for about $22 million of this year's payroll. If they are trying to cut back a little bit on spending, then Ellsbury would seem to be a great option to plug in. Although starting a rookie on a team with a payroll north of $100 million is rare (let alone two years in a row), I feel that Ellsbury could hit down in the nine spot, and is a guy who can get on base with great consistency (.432 OBP so far this year), and once he gets on, is a big-time candidate to swipe bases (19 steals in 22 chances). So, from what I can gather, you're going to take a little bit of a hit in terms of fielding, but in terms of a bat, Ellsbury definitely has the advantage in terms of getting on base, which is what the Sox put a priority on.

Well, I'm going to go enjoy my Friday, and I suggest you do the same. Take care now. Peace.

~Mell-o