Pats/Colts Preview

"Maybe we’ll make something
But me myself I got nothing to prove."

Well this is it. Everyone has been looking forward to this game every since I turned 22 (January 21, 2007...AFC Championship Game). The Pats get another shot at the Colts. Now that I can finally focus on this game, I am real excited about seeing how this one will turn out. This is for #1 in the AFC. Forget about being the best team in the league. I already know the Pats are the best team in the league. If the Colts beat the Pats on Sunday, I still won't be convinced that they're better than us (unless they run the score up on us, which would be a little ironic I suppose). So, without futher ado, let's get into it. Again, hopefully you will be seeing this on Patriots Insider. By the way, apparently, my stuff has been good enough to hit the "premium" section, but fear not. If you set up a free account on Patriots Insider, you will have access to my articles, as well as all the other great staff members that make contributions.

Pats Look For Revenge In Their Return Trip To Indianapolis

"Be prepared for hysterics and even a fainting spell. Better have smelling salts handy and a nip of brandy." ~Witness for the Prosecution

Trends:

New England:

Since 2005:

• 3-2 vs. AFC South opponents
• 12-5 after a home game
• 10-2 as a road favorie (current line: NE -6)
• 24-6 playing on turf
• 18-4 after allowing less than 17 points in the previous week (last week: 7)

Indianapolis:

Since 2005:

• 18-1 at home
• Has not been underdogged at home
• 5-0 vs. AFC East opponents
• 12-2 when the over/under is over 47.5 (currently 57)
• 2-0 vs. New England

Last Meeting: 1/21/07 AFC Championship Game: Indianapolis 38, New England 34 (RCA Dome)
Last Regular Season Meeting: 11/5/06: Indianapolis 27, New England 20 (Gillette Stadium)

Interesting Fact: The meeting between the 8-0 Patriots and the 7-0 Colts will be the first time in the history of the NFL that two teams had met this late in the season that were both undefeated.

Stats:

TOTAL OFFENSE (NE/IND)

POINTS/GAME 41.4 (1) 32.0 (3)
YARDS/GAME 439.5 (1) 399.0 (3)
TURNOVERS 7 (3) 5 (1)
PENALTIES 37 (10) 29 (2)
PENALTY YARDS 305 (12) 183 (2)
3RD DOWN 48.8% (13) 53.9% (2)
4TH DOWN 66.7% (2) 66.7% (2)
SCORING EFFICIENCY 57.8% (1) 54.9% (2)

TOTAL DEFENSE (NE/IND)

OPP. POINTS/GAME 15.9 (5) 14.6 (2)
OPP. TOTAL YARDS/GAME 265.8 (3) 272.9 (4)
OPP. 3RD DOWN 28.7% (1) 46.2% (22)
OPP. 4TH DOWN 66.7% (29) 50.0% (28)
OPP. SCORING EFFICIENCY 21.3% (1) 24.6% (4)

Opponents’ Grades and Analysis:

PASS OFFENSE
QB PEYTON MANNING A+
WR MARVIN HARRISON A+
WR REGGIE WAYNE A
WR ANTHONY GONZALEZ B-
TE DALLAS CLARK B+
TE BEN UTECHT B-

It’s no secret that Peyton Manning has been one of the best signal-callers not only of the past decade, but of all time. Manning’s ability to confuse defenses at the line of scrimmage and break down defensive coverages and blitzes has been well-documented. Of course, a lot of his success has been because of the weapons he has utilized, mainly Harrison and Wayne. While Harrison has been out the past few games with a bruised knee, Reggie Wayne has filled in tremendously in his absence. Wayne could easily be a #1 receiver on just about any other team in the league. He showed he can catch the ball over the middle and on deep balls last week in the game I went to when the Colts played Carolina at Charlotte. Wayne could not be covered by the Panthers’ corners, and went for 168 yards on seven receptions, including a 59-yard bomb down the sidelines. With Harrison likely coming back this week, the gold standard of receiving duos will be reunited. Another facet of the passing offense that Manning utilizes is the middle of the field. While Harrison and Wayne occupy the defensive secondary downfield, it leaves the middle wide open for tight ends Dallas Clark and Ben Utecht to roam free under the coverage. Both these offenses are so effective because there are so many options for both quarterbacks to go to, making it tough on a defense to commit their attention to just one man.

RUSH OFFENSE

RB JOSEPH ADDAI A-
LT TONY UGOH C
LG RYAN LILJA B+
C JEFF SATURDAY A+
RG JAKE SCOTT A-
RT RYAN DIEM A-

Addai has really impressed me this season, and especially in the game I saw him in last week. The whole “sophomore slump” precedent has not had any effect on Addai this year. Against the Panthers, Addai was able to pick up four to five yards almost every time after initial contact, an attribute all the great backs possess. This will be a great contest between two second-year running backs with Addai and Laurence Maroney. The Colts run a somewhat unusual offense in that they do not have a fullback on the field to lead-block for Addai, and honestly, they really don’t need one with Jeff Saturday at center. Saturday has become the best center in football, and is so explosive off the ball that few nose tackles have the ability to stay near the line when Addai runs through. In addition, the line will be solid for years to come with Lilja, Scott, and Diem all being terrific, and all 28 and under. The big question mark will definitely come with Tony Ugoh, who simply has not been effective this year. It was tough on the Colts when Tarik Glenn suddenly retired during the preseason, and they simply did not have enough time to find a suitable replacement. Richard Seymour is still recovering, and looked rusty last week. If he can get himself back to “game speed” for Sunday, this will be the biggest mismatch on either side of the ball.

RUSH DEFENSE

RDE DWIGHT FREENEY A+
RDT EDWARD JOHNSON C+
LDT RAHEEM BROCK B
LDE ROBERT MATHIS A-
ROLB TYJUAN HAGLER C
MLB GARY BRACKETT B
LOLB ROCKY BOIMAN C

Freeney has always been a nuisance against the Patriots, and for that matter, the entire league. On the turf, the Freeney/Matt Light matchup has been completely one-sided, with Freeney able to use his size and speed to blow by Light and cause havoc to Tom Brady. Robert Mathis is also a tremendous pass rusher on the other side. Nick Kaczur will be another guy that will have his hands full on Sunday trying to stop Mathis. Ed Johnson and Robert Mathis have been good at stuffing the middle, but if the Patriots run the ball, look for them to go after the middle of the line, as it is next to impossible to get to the outside with the speed the Colts have on the ends. Gary Brackett is a very underrated middle linebacker, and will be called upon to get Maroney and anyone else who chooses to attack the middle of the field. The outside linebackers will be used mostly on blitzes to add to the pressure coming from the outside. Again, the middle of the field is going to be key for both the Patriots’ run and pass offense. While Vinny Testaverde was throwing for the Panthers, he effectively used short passes over the middle to drive Carolina all the way down the field on their opening drive for a touchdown.

PASS DEFENSE

RCB MARLIN JACKSON B+
FS ANTIONE BETHEA B+
SS BOB SANDERS A+
RCB KELVIN HAYDEN B-

Bob Sanders is finally getting the respect that he deserves. After flying under the radar for the last two seasons, for whatever reason, Sanders is now heralded as one of the best secondary players in the league. Sanders adds a terrific dynamic in terms of aiding the run defense, but also lends himself to making the big hit in the passing game. Despite both their starting cornerbacks from last year’s Super Bowl team now off the team, Marlin Jackson has been tremendous this year. However, his biggest test will come this week trying to cover Randy Moss. The same goes for Hayden, who will likely be lining up opposite Donte’ Stallworth or Wes Welker. Bethea will do everything he can to try and help the young corners out, but it will be tough to account for all the targets Brady will have on the field.

Advantages:

When New England Has The Ball:

NE OFFENSE IND DEFENSE ADV.

RUN YARDS/GAME 135.8 (8) 107.4 (13) PUSH
YARDS/CARRY 4.2 (14) 4.1 (17) PUSH
RUSHING FIRST DOWNS 76 (1) 52 (25) NE
RUSHING FUMBLES 2 (8) 3 (20) NE
PASS YARDS/GAME 303.8 (1) 165.4 (1) PUSH
COMPLETION % 73.6% (1) 65.7% (26) NE
PASSING FIRST DOWNS 125 (1) 67 (3) PUSH
QB RATING 133.2 (1) 69.9 (3) PUSH
INTERCEPTIONS 3 (3) 9 (9) NE
SACKS 8 (3) 12 (22) NE

Advantage: New England

When Indianapolis Has The Ball:

IND OFFENSE NE DEFENSE ADV.

RUN YARDS/GAME 140.3 (5) 87.0 (6) PUSH
YARDS/CARRY 4.4 (10) 4.2 (22) IND
RUSHING FIRST DOWNS 69 (2) 42 (15) IND
RUSHING FUMBLES 1 (3) 0 (31) IND
PASS YARDS/GAME 258.7 (6) 181.5 (5) PUSH
COMPLETION % 65.4% (8) 59.7 (11) PUSH
PASSING FIRST DOWNS 89 (11) 86 (23) IND
QB RATING 102.5 (2) 73.0 (5) PUSH
INTERCEPTIONS 3 (3) 11 (4) PUSH
SACKS 5 (2) 22 (5) PUSH

Advantage: Indianapolis

Matchup Of The Game: Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis vs. Matt Light, Nick Kaczur, and Whoever Else Can Possibly Block Them

This one bares repeating because of how absolutely monumental this one is. Unless Matt Light got infinitely times better than he was in January, Freeney will likely have his way with him. Light is an above average tackle, but Freeney could be one of the most explosive ends of all time, and simply overmatches Light on the fast track in Indy. Mathis is another speed guy, and it will be tough for Kaczur to keep up with him coming around the end. What I look for is the Patriots to use a lot of sets with Kyle Brady lining up on the left side to help Light out, and also, a mixture of Maroney, Heath Evans, and Kevin Faulk to help out on the strong side with not only blocking, but being decoys to distract Mathis from getting after Brady. If the Pats can neutralize these two forces, it will allow Brady to keep having plenty of time in the pocket to read Indy’s defense, and attack the middle of the field, which is what New England will be looking to do right off the bat.

Key Injuries:

New England:
• Eugene Wilson: Questionable (ankle)
• Benjamin Watson: Questionable (ankle)
• Sammy Morris: Doubtful (chest)

Indianapolis:
• Tony Ugoh: Questionable (foot)
• Marvin Harrison: Questionable (knee)
• Marlin Jackson: Day-To-Day (neck)

New England Keys To Victory:

1. Protection For Brady: Sure, it was brought up in the “Opponents’ Grades and Analysis,” and in the “Matchup Of The Game,” but there simply is no limit to how much emphasis can be put on this. In all the games played against the Colts, and more so at Indianapolis, the ends repeatedly get around the tackles and put pressure on Brady. Ever since Indy drafted Freeney, it has been like this. Again, if the Pats can figure out a way to at least slow the pass rush down, the Colts will be almost helpless against the pass attack of the Patriots.

2. Attack The Middle: Clearly, the middle of the field is where most of the damage can be done on the Colts’ defense. This is true not only for passing, but also for running the ball. Maroney will be running most of his attempts in between the tackles to avoid the outside pressure. Also, I expect a huge day for Wes Welker, who will be targeted over the middle like he has been all season.

3. Keep Attacking Manning: The Pats had a huge lead at halftime in last year’s AFC Championship game, but decided to only rush a maximum of four in the second half, and played a soft zone which Manning picked apart. If the Patriots had kept up their level of pressure on Manning from the first half into the second, who knows what the outcome could have been? In any event, New England has to keep trying to get to Manning, mixing up their schemes to try and at least give Manning another couple of seconds of indecisiveness. If you let Manning sit in the pocket and pick apart a defense, he will put up his normal, gaudy numbers that helped the Colts come back in January to go to the Super Bowl. If the Patriots want the Super Bowl to run through Foxboro, they will need to stop Manning from having a big game.

Indianapolis Keys To Victory:

1. Bob Sanders: This Indy team is a completely different one without Sanders’ presence, and it showed last year. After being the worst rush defense for most of last year while Sanders was sidelined, he returned just in time for the playoffs, where he was a key figure in stopping Larry Johnson, Corey Dillon, and Thomas Jones in the Colts’ three playoff victories. Sanders was integral in both Colts wins against the Pats last year, and if the Colts are going to try and contain the #1 offense in the league, Sanders is going to have to step up again and make his presence known early and often.

2. Test Richard Seymour: Seymour is obviously not back to full strength, and while Tony Ugoh, the weakest link in the Colts’ offensive line, will be going up against Seymour, the Colts should still see how well the All-Pro defensive end can maneuver. I anticipate a lot of running to the left side of the line, which could also involve pulling Jeff Saturday and Jeff Scott over to drive the running game. If Seymour cannot play up to his normal, outstanding ways, then the Colts will be able to establish a strong running attack that will set up the rest of their offense.

3. Spread The Ball Around On Offense: If Manning starts only targeting one or two receivers, the defense will be able to key up on them, and it may be difficult for Manning to keep the chains moving. However, if Harrison is able to go, this should be no problem in terms of getting multiple receivers involved. What Manning likes to do is establish his outside targets right from the beginning. Even if no points come from it, Manning likes to spread the defense out to open up the middle of the field, where Dallas Clark has become so good at taking advantage of. Also, it helps the inside draw play to Addai when the linebackers are forced to keep track of the receivers split out.

Game Time: 4:15 (CBS), RCA Dome, Indianapolis, IN
Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms

Can't wait 'til Sunday. Peace.

~Mell-o

We Win Again

"His conversations kill."

Sure, I'm late to the party, but really, I'll be celebrating until April, so maybe I'm a little early. In any event, congratulations to the 2007 Boston Red Sox, hereby to be known as your World Champs. Sunday was once again a sweep for New England teams much like what happened last week with the Pats and the Sox. First, the Pats snuck by the Redskins 52-7 (more on that later), and then the Sox completed yet another World Series sweep, this time of the Rockies, winning a thriller, 4-3, including another multi-inning outing for Jonathan Papelbon, who could have easily been the series MVP.

While the Sox spent around $140 million to create this team, it turned out that a lot of the guys making short money were the guys who ended up having the biggest impact on the team. Guys like Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Papelbon, Jon Lester, Manny Delcarmen Jacoby Ellsbury, and even Bobby Kielty were heroes of the series. Can you believe a Bobby Kielty home run was the difference in the Sox' clinching game? How more unlikely can you be? Anyway, the real key to the Sox winning once again was the starting pitching. Much like what happened in '04, the Sox' starters came out and were simply dominant in their outings. The firestarter, of course, was Josh Beckett, who, again, should be the Cy Young Winner of the American League (by the way, are there anymore C.C. Sabathia backers?...I know that the award is symbolic of the regular season, but still, the two head-to-head matchups in the playoffs should just kill that debate), was as dominant as any pitcher as ever been in October. Schilling once again showed his prowess in October, and for that reason alone, the Sox should at least consider re-upping with him for another year (although the price tag is pretty steep...$13 million). Dice-K was good enough for people to not be able to throw him under the bus like they have done basically all year. By the way, how can a guy be considered a "bust" if he wins 15 games his first season in the majors? Have you ever heard of anything like that? Sure, it was $103 million en total, but again, it's spread over six years. Plus, do you not think the Sox were picking up some of that revenue from Japan to offset that $51 million posting fee? I think there's more criticism of the Sox signing Dice-K than the Yankees signing Clemens. The guy had 200 K's in 204 innings! He's still got five more years! What is wrong with you people?! Sure he could have been better, but he could have been way worse. Therefore, all and all, it was a successful "rookie" season for the Dice man. And, of course, there was Jon Lester, the feel-good story of the Red Sox. In no way is this a trivialization of Lester's bout with non-Hochkins' lymphoma, but rather, it has more to do with the fact that he came out of the bullpen to pitch brilliantly in Game 4. The future is oh so bright with Lester and Buchholz coming into the rotation next year with Beck, Dice, and, hopefully, Wake.

The hitting was another big story from the series. Going into the games against the Rockies, I gave a slight edge to the Colorado lineup, but after it was all over, there was no question about who was the more superior offensive team. The Sox ended the Series batting .333, the second highest in the history of the World Series. It all started with Game 1, when the Sox exploded for 13 runs in the first five innings of the game. The Rockies' starters and their bullpen were worn out after the first two games, simply not being used to the patience that the Sox' hitters showed at the plate. Never was this more evident than in Game 2, where Ubaldo Jimenez, who has great stuff, simply had no control over his pitches, and despite only giving up two runs on three hits, could not pitch through the fifth inning, and forced Clint Hurdle to go into his 'pen much earlier than he would have wanted. This was a continued theme throughout the series. The Rockies were simply worn out. They had a huge layoff, which I didn't think would matter like it did last year, but in the end, it turned out that the Rockies looked as flat as the Tigers did last year against the Cardinals.

Basically, all that has been said about the Sox has been said. It's taken me three days to let it all sink in (and sleep everything off), but the fact remains that we won the Series...I mean the Sox are World Champs...that's two in four years...did you ever think you would see one? Are we spoiled now? Well, perhaps. Do I care? Not in the least bit. In fact, let the rest of the world talk about Sox fans. Honestly, a little while back, it bothered me that we were labeled "obnoxious" and "spoiled," but now, I just don't care anymore. If you know who you are, and you know about the trials and tribulations that go with following this team, then it doesn't really matter what anyone says...

We win again.

Speaking of not caring about what people think, the Patriots continue to have their way with the NFL, putting a 52-spot on the Redskins last week. Sure, people can talk about the Patriots being unsportsmanlike and unfair for running up the score...but if I listened to what everyone had to say, I would think that my team has been cheating for five years and that all their wins were tainted. So, this is why I have basically formed this opinion: It's us against them. I think the Pats have also took on this mentality, and the fact that people said the Pats couldn't win without cheating has simply fueled the fire that is Belichick. Sure, if you asked him straight up about all of this, he would throw out that all of this is ridiculous, but come on. I know what's going on. You (i.e. the NFL, its coaches, players, owners, officials, and everyone covering the league) screw with us, we are going to beat all of you into submission and twist your arm and say "uncle." We're the bullies now, because you have messed with us, and the Patriots have officially taken on the role of "the bad guys" because they stopped caring about everything. They stopped caring about this whole "sportsmanship" aspect of the game because that whole theory was thrown against us when we were called out for stealing signs. Why should the Patriots be sportsmanlike? Because "it's the right thing to do?" The Pats have been the class franchise for this century, and yet, our integrity was put into question because a jealous coach in the Meadowlands felt like his joke of a team actually had a shot against us. This is like getting snitched out for being in the mob, serving the sentence (i.e. the first rounder, and the $750,000 in collective fines), coming back out, and going on almost a murderous rampage. Will this stop? Well, the fact of the matter is that this team will be devastated if they don't bring home a title. All of our previous titles have been brought into question, so if the Pats are able to win this one, it would be the last in a long and lengthy series of middle fingers to everyone who has questioned our ability to play this game. If you don't want the Pats to run up the score, how about playing a little defense? The last time I checked, Washington supposedly had the fifth best defense in the league, and they gave up 45 offensive points, but no one questions that. They don't question how miserable the 'Skins defense was. Instead, they question why Brady was still throwing in the fourth quarter. If Belichick wants to risk Brady getting hurt in the fourth, that's his prerogative. If you wanted to send Belichick a message, why not blitz Brady and try to knock him down? Instead, the 'Skins played soft zone for basically the entire second half. Are we supposed to just sit there and let them get away with that? If you don't want to play hard and cover receivers, you will pay in this league. Also, Joe Gibbs, if you are ok with how we went about doing things, why didn't you shake Bill's hand at the end of the game? I don't like LT because he's a total fairy, but at least he said what was on his mind...however stupid it may have been. Of course Gibbs had a problem with what we did. If you're a Redskins player/coach/front office guy/fan, how could you not have a problem with what the Patriots did? We embarrassed them thoroughly, and basically made a mockery of both their offense and defense all game long. How could you not be offended by that? If you have a problem, say it. What difference is it going to make? Gibbs would have basically reflected the opinion of about every non-Patriot fan and every media member. Or, shake Bill's hand at the end, and say it's not an issue, like basically every NFL coach has come out and said throughout the week.

Well, it's on to Indy now. I'll have a preview up for this one real soon. Take care everyone.

RE-SIGN LOWELL

Peace.

~Mell-o

NFL Week 8/College Week 9 Predictions

"Well I went to a dance just the other night
Everybody there was there."

???...

Thank you Dave Clark Five for singing one of the most bizarre lines in rock and roll history. Ok, in any event, last week was good, but it needs to be better. So, here's how I plan on doing it:

College

Georgia vs. Florida: The "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" commences once again this year. Right now, Florida is about the best two-loss team you may ever see, as they have been firing on all cylinders after two straight losses to LSU and Auburn at home. Florida has won four of the last five meetings, all by a touchdown or less. Much like the FSU/Miami game last week, it really doesn't matter how good the teams are...they're going to play close. Florida (W), Georgia (+9.5).

West Virginia vs. Rutgers: West Virginia's one loss was to South Florida at South Florida by eight. Now, they're "back" apparently? I don't really know how a team can fall so far out of favor with America than West Virginia. They have one loss! Their backup running back might win the Heisman next year! Also, Rutgers winning another huge game at home? They're good...I'm not quite sure they're that good. Mountaineers (W, -6).

Ohio St. vs. Penn St.: If this was played at the Horseshoe, it may have been the Buckeyes in a laugher. However, this is Happy Valley, a place that has haunted Ohio St. I will say this: If Ohio St. can somehow win this game, they may be able to cruise to the National Championship because they have no championship game (then again, the way Michigan's playing..."I'm not so sure about that"). Penn St. (W, +3.5).

South Florida vs. UConn: Wow I love UConn football. That is a shirt that will be mine...oh yes. I love how the Huskies have gone from the building stages of a D-1 program to a top 25 team in like five years. Last week, the refs blew the fair catch call to give the Huskies the game over Louisville, one of the most egregious calls you may ever see (one which the Big East has apologized for profusely, which does...well, nothing really; anytime a conference has to apologize for the officials, two things should happen: 1.) The refs need to either be fired or at least suspended for a couple of games, and 2.) Neither team should be credited for a win or a loss...make it like the game never happened, because if the refs can turn a game on a dime like they did last week, in a lot of ways, it didn't). In any event, South Florida is reeling, but the fact that this is a 3:30 game makes me think they will be able to bounce back. Again, I love UConn...South Florida (W, -4).

Colorado vs. Texas Tech: Colorado was 'dogged on the road to Baylor! Sure, they gave Kansas a game last week, but much like their baseball counterparts, home field is big for Colorado. Me, personally, I like my chances with Tech coming off a lashing against Mizzou last week. Red Raiders (W, -13.5).

Southern Cal vs. Oregon: Dennis Dixon and his merry band of over-achievers take on the Trojans, fresh off their whooping of everyone's favorite national television disaster. I ran into a guy I know at the bar last night who was a Steelers/Notre Dame fan...I mean after "hi, how are ya?," where can I go?...Hey, Notre Dame almost scored, or hey, the Steelers may win the North because all the other teams in the division are imploding. In any event, Oregon (W, -3).

Clemson vs. Maryland: It's always nice to pick against Clemson...always...oh yeah...and I'm getting points at College Park? Giddeup! Terps (W, +4).

Virginia vs. North Carolina St.: Virginia = Fuego. N.C. State = Not Fuego. Virginia (W, -3).

Michigan St. vs. Iowa: So have I missed every single Iowa game this year? Probably. Oh well. In any event, the home team wins every time here, so I'm looking for the Hawkeyes to duplicate what they did against Illinois at home. Iowa (W, -3).

UCLA vs. Washington St.: Washington St. has won four of the last five meetings, and the one loss was by three points. It's chiasmic. Washington St. (W, +6).

Last Week: SU: 7-3, ATS: 7-3
Season: 41-25, ATS: 37-26-3

NFL

Washington vs. New England: As I've said all week long, Washington is a quality opponent that should not be taken likely. The Pats have been smoking people, but again, this ATS streak has to end eventually, and it almost did last week vs. Miami. I'm seeing Washington coming out and scoring first for some reason, and that this will actually be a tight game. Patriots (W), Redskins (+16.5).

Cleveland vs. St. Louis: So this is it for the Rams. If they don't win this, it's smooth sailing to 0-16. So, with that being said, I like the Rams to finally break through. Also, Steven Jackson is coming back. Fantasy owners rejoice! Rams (W, +3).

Detroit vs. Chicago: Detroit already has one on the Bears this year...I could not be more confused about this Bears team. Really, it doesn't matter a whole bunch where I go with this one, because I have almost zero confidence in where I go in this game. Lions? (W, +5).

Indianapolis vs. Carolina: So Vinny goes on the road and beats Arizona, and his reward is the bench. This is arguably the worst 4-2 team in the history of the NFL, and I hope with David Carr at QB, they get smoked this week...I know I'll be there. Indy (W, -7).

New York vs. Miami: Live from London. So this could be the worst decision the NFL ever made. Screw a team out of a home game, and play in front of people who think football is a completely different sport. Still, I'm curious as to what will happen. Miami got its first class ticket to Screwedville last week when Ronnie Brown went down for the year. The Giants will go on a long losing streak, but again, this is the wrong week for it. G-Men (W, -9.5).

Oakland vs. Tennessee: Oakland plays Tennessee very close, so I'm liking that. Tennessee (W), Oakland (+8).

Philadelphia vs. Minnesota: The Vikings have only had two home games all year, and the Eagles have been dreadful on the road, beating only the Jets away from the Linc. Vikings (W, +2).

Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati: The home team has been surprisingly awful in this series. Cincy pulled one out against those "pesky" Jets, and Pittsburgh got beat by Denver on the road, which I accurately predicted would screw me over. In any event, I think this is going to be one of those 38-35 games...which actually favors Cincy...Bungles (W, +3.5).

Buffalo vs. New York: The Jets have been dreadful, and once again, they refuse to start Kellen Clemens. When 95% of the money is going towards the road team, you know the Jets have fallen out of favor with the public that would put money on games if that were legal. Buffalo (W, +3).

Houston vs. San Diego: The Texans were close to completing one of the best comebacks in NFL history, but the Sage Rosenfels experiment fell short to Rob Bironas...and I guess the Titans were playing too. The Texans have lost five in a row ATS, and San Diego is coming off a bye. San Diego (W, -9.5).

Jacksonville vs Tampa Bay: Garrard is out for a month, and the line went bananas when that news broke, going from Jags favored by three to Bucs by four. Tampa is 3-0 at home, and Jacksonville is 2-0 on the road. Quinn Gray at QB?...Ehhh...Tampa (W, -4).

New Orleans vs. San Francisco: The Niners have looked awful, losing their last four. However, the Saints have been even worse ATS (1-5). So, I look for the Niners to rebound. 'Frisco (W, +3).

Green Bay vs. Denver: The Broncos again get a national TV game at home...what are the odds? In any event, Denver is 0-3 as a favorite, and once again, it's almost impossible to go against the Brett Favre "will I retire a winner, paralyzed, or both?" ride. Packers (W, +3).

Last Week: SU: 10-4, ATS: 6-8
Season: 69-34, ATS: 55-39-9

Take it easy. Peace.

~Mell-o

Friday October 26th, 2007: Boston Is On Top Of The Sports Universe

" Trying to stop my hands from shakin'
Somethin' in my mind's not makin' sense
It's been a while since we were all alone
I can't hide the way I'm feelin'."

We're #1...in everything.

I mark the date for my title because when I look back on the history of Boston sports, this will arguably be the highest of all highs that it can get to. The Sox just won their second straight World Series win, sending the series to Colorado needing just two wins for the franchise's seventh title. The Patriots have beat everyone...by at least 17 points, and face a good Washington team this weekend (more on that to come). The Bruins are off to a 6-3 start, forcing my boss to order the hockey package for the bar. The Celtics are favored to win the Eastern Conference, and start regular season next week against the Wizards, and last but certainly not least...the Boston College Eagles.

I've said all along that the Eagles will not win the national title...but man was that a hell of a win last night in Blacksburg. Can anyone recall someone coming into a game as one of the favorites to win the Heisman, then becoming a goat on the wrong end of a dominating performance by the opposing team's defense, and then, in just two and a half minutes, he becomes the favorite to win the Heisman? Matt Ryan looked like a goat for basically the entire game, making horrible decisions, having no poise in the pocket, and just looking completely uncomfortable. But then, with the game on the line down 10-0, and Virginia Tech's unwillingness to win the game despite having tons and tons of opportunities to put the Eagles away, Matt Ryan stepped up and basically took the team on his back, chugging down the field and throwing a tremendous touchdown pass to make it a field goal game. Then, VA Tech made another blunder, and giving the ball back to the Eagles after being unable to recover the onside kick. Ryan then engineered another fantastic drive, throwing all over a Hokie defense that had been unforgiving through the first three and 9/10 quarters. Finally, Ryan, who had been running frantically away from the VA Tech D-line all game, and was once again forced to run around to escape the pressure, found a wide open Andre Callender, arguably the nation's most underrated running back, in the end zone to put the Eagles on top for the first time all game...with 11 seconds remaining. With a win against a top 10 team on the road, it may not even matter what happens to Ohio St. this weekend when they go on the road to Happy Valley this weekend. Because BC was so close to the Buckeyes in the BCS before this game, the win likely will help them jump Ohio St. into the #1 spot heading into next week. The funny thing was that I really thought the Eagles were going to win this one, and I was more worried for them about playing Maryland next week than I was against the Hokies. They really did not have much to lose. If they lost this game, they would likely have dropped to only #3 in the country because of the disparity between the third and fourth place teams in the BCS. Another thing: They were 'dogged going into the game, and yet, I was reading an article on ESPN about how VA Tech could pull off the "upset" despite the fact BC was 'dogged 3 1/2 points heading into the game. Is it my imagination, or doesn't a team have to be favored to get upset? Clearly, like myself, Vegas had underestimated BC's resolve, and did not think they could win a big game. While I thought they would win, I certainly had my doubts, but now, they go into College Park next week the #1 team in the country.

The Sox have shown so far they can win with everything. In the first game, they beat down both the starter, Jeff Francis, and the rest of the Rockies' bullpen with a never-ending offensive onslaught, tying and breaking team and baseball records along the way in the 13-1 win. Then, in Game 2, Ubaldo Jimenez, while throwing wild, was able to keep the Sox guessing long enough to keep the scoring to a minimum. However, Curt Schilling, Hideki Okajima, and Jonathan Papelbon were just that more impressive, and had it not been for a bloop hit by Matt Holliday that caromed off Mike Lowell's glove, they may not have scored at all. While Schilling pitched another great game, the credit really needs to be given to Okie. All postseason, he has shown why he was one of the most valuable Sox players all season long, but last night, if there was still any doubt about his ability to perform on the biggest stage, it was wiped away by 2 1/3 innings of brilliance, striking out four along the way, and not allowing a single baserunner to reach. In addition, he was brought on with two runners on in the sixth, and did not allow them to score, which was absolutely critical given the circumstances. I will say that the Rockies did perform a 180 as far as their bullpen goes. Pitching Herges, Fuentes, and Corpas, their three best, they only three hits scattered over 3 1/3 innings, keeping Colorado in the game all the way until the very last pitch. This will continue to be a big storyline as the series shifts to Mile High. With no DH, can the Sox keep pace with Colorado's offense, who will likely be at least a little more impressive than they were in the first two games? If Josh Fogg and Aaron Cook can make quality starts, and keep the Sox offense off-balance in the process, it may be a tough task for Boston to try and come from behind given how well the bullpen was in Game 2. I personally think Game 1 was an aberration of what the Rockies have out there. Morales and Speier literally walked the Rockies out of that game, and it's not like Josh Beckett is going to give up a lead like that in the World Series. So now, Game 3 at Denver, Dice against Josh Fogg. This will be the first ever outing for Dice in Denver. While I still am unsure of how I feel about that, the biggest question has to be the musical chairs match of Papi/Lowell/Youk. Right now, it would seem like you almost have to sit Youk, even though he has been scorching this postseason, for at least Game 3. Ortiz...well, I mean what else can possibly be said about him in October? And as far as Lowell goes, not only has he been the MVP of the team, a great defender at third, and the guy responsible, at least on the offensive side, for winning Game 2, he has played at Mile High a bunch, recording almost 100 plate appearances there. Again, it really comes down to what happens in Game 3 that will determine the fate of this series. If the Sox are able to win, I immediately sit Ortiz and play Youk at first, and throw Beckett in for Game 4 to try and win right now. If on the off-chance Beckett happens to appear human, you still have a 3-1 series advantage, and with a day off for Ortiz, he will be back in the lineup for Game 5, where Jon Lester will likely take the ball. Then, if that game doesn't go as planned, the Sox will return to Boston and pitch Schilling in a Game 6 again. Again, Schilling and Game 6 has proven to be a great combination. The Sox' thinking could be to wait on Beckett until Game 5, which I completely understand. You want to give the guy his four days' rest. However, if the Sox do win that critical Game 3, the Rockies will officially be in one-man's land, down 0-3, and that one man, or in this case, team, that has been able to navigate themselves out of that place is the team they are facing in this series. So, why even let the Rockies back in it? I love Jon Lester, but Josh Beckett is on another level...maybe even another planet compared to any pitcher in baseball right now. So, Saturday will be a huge game for the Sox, and the undercard will be the Cocks/Vols game, with both trying to rebound from two demoralizing defeats last week.

The view certainly is nice from up here. Sure, it won't last forever...I think, but for now, it's good to take it all in, and talk about it to every single living person I can get a hold of. That's all for the moment. Plenty still to come.

Believe.

Peace.

~Mell-o

Cleveland Rocks!...Thanks For The Push, We're 2007 AL Champs!

"This is what you get, when you mess with us."

Here's something to keep in mind for the people who gave Indians fans World Series towels before Game 5: Next time you are close to getting there, you may want to wait until you actually advance before you start waving those towels around in front of the opposition...especially the Sox. I mean did we really need any more motivation going into that game? We're a game away from elimination, our best pitcher is on the mound...you think they would attempt to be a little more modest before starting their celebration. Now, they're all goats, ripe to be poked fun at by the whole damn world...luckily, I am a member of the damn world I speak of, and now, you're going to hear about it.

Planning parades, celebrating preemptively, why do people still try and motivate New England teams? Don't you know what will happen? You will lose time and time again. Ask the Chargers. Last year, they planned a parade for when they won the AFC Championship, basically writing off the Pats. After the game, their fans booed the team, partially because San Diego lost, but mostly because they dropped two grand on Super Bowl tickets that wouldn't feature their team. Now, Cleveland thinks the series is over. Ryan Garko tells everyone "the champagne tastes as good on the road," and Kenny Lofton tries to start a fight with Beckett...why? Why motivate us? All we're going to do is embarrass you, and when it's over, you will be watching us on TV, and the season will be over. So, for the future, please, for your own good, don't do it anymore. It will just lead to the pain and misery. I know about pain and misery...it's not such a great place to be.

So thank you Cleveland for helping the ratings (highest since '04), and giving the Sox, and the fans, that adrenaline push to get us back to the World Series. In all honesty, I said after Game 4 that "Indians fans want this thing right now more than we do," and it was a perfectly correct assumption. Game 2's crowd was abysmal. There was no energy for the extra innings, and, hello, that's the time when the energy has to be there. Indians fans were going wild every inning for Games 3 and 4, and it seemed like Sox fans (again, speaking about those in the building at the time) were almost content that the Sox were going to let this game slip away. Then, after Game 5, everything changed. The towels, Lofton, Garko running his mouth after the game, and Curt Schilling in another Game 6...no team, and I mean no team could have come back from those circumstances. To say this was like the '86 ALCS would be a complete understatement...this was the '86 series all over again. A team, up 3-1 in the series against the Sox, this time being the Angels, that was so sure that they would win the series that they were already distributing "1986 American League Champions" t-shirts down in the clubhouse. The home crowd was in a frenzy, the players were walking with their chests pumped out, it seemed like it was all over but the crying...then Dave Henderson hit the home run of Donnie Moore in the ninth, then the sac fly in the 11th to win the game...and the Angels never recovered. They got trampled at Boston in two straight games, and they were sent home with their tail in between their legs. The heroes were also of the unexpected variety, especially in the case of J.D. Drew, who, despite hitting the grand slam and driving in five in Game 6, is still far from redeeming himself from the never-ending suck-fest he put on for $14 million this year. Joe Buck said Drew "erased the season" with that hit..."I'm not so sure about that."

In any event, the Sox are in, so now, who are these Colorado Rockies that can't be beat? Well, obviously, they have a great lineup, which is headlined by the potential MVP (Matt Holliday) and Rookie Of The Year (Troy Tulowitzki) of the National League, but they have a bunch of other guys that can do some damage. Rightfielder Brad Hawpe and third baseman Garrett Atkins both had over 25 homers and over 110 RBIs. Throw in Todd Helton, and you're looking at five guys who can flat out hit. Sure, their stats are inflated by Coors Field, but hey, they are going to play at least two games there in this series. In addition to the mashers in the middle of the order, the Rockies have two guys at the top of their lineup (Willy Tavarez, Kaz Matsui) who have stolen over 30 bases.

Their lineup is great, but the biggest factor for the Rockies' chances of winning this series rest on the pitching staff. Jeff Francis has been outstanding in the postseason, going 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA. Then, well, if Francis was "unknown" enough, the rest of the staff is a mystery to even the biggest baseball fans. Ubaldo Jimenez was the Game 2 pitcher in the NLCS. I saw the game, and I have to say I was impressed by his exploding fastball. Jimenez wasn't very impressive in the regular season, and has a serious problem with his control. In fact, he's very much like Fausto Carmona, which could be a huge advantage for the Sox if they can be patient at the plate. Game 3 will feature Josh Fogg, who is another guy who I can't quite understand why he is having the success he's having. Fogg has had a fairly mediocre career, and actually wasn't in the starting rotation until the NLCS. Finally, Game 4 will feature the biggest wild card of them all, Franklin Morales. In two starts, he has only gone a combined seven innings in the postseason. One of the biggest underlying stories of this series will be Colorado's focus on finding hard-throwing pitching in the Domincan, Central America, and Venezuela. Morales is from Venezuela, Jimenez is from the D.R., and perhaps the Rockies' best pitcher, Manny Corpas, is from Panama. Plus, the Rockies have more on the way in the minors to replenish the bullpen in the next few years. What is surprising to me is the amount of supposedly "washed-up" relievers Colorado has. Guys like Matt Herges, Jeremy Affeldt, LaTroy Hawkins, Jorge Julio...Jorge Julio! What a crazy world we live in where Jorge Julio will be relied on in the World Series. In any event, the bullpen goes with Corpas and former close Brian Fuentes. It's not like Fuentes was not effective, it's just that Corpas was so good in Fuentes' absence that they decided to keep him as the closer.

Clearly, the Sox have an advantage in starting pitching and in the bullpen in terms of depth. However, the lineups are about even...maybe even a slight edge to Colorado. So, if the Rockies' pitching can keep them in games, Colorado, despiting being a 2-to-1 underdog, has a reasonable chance at making this series close. I think the Rockies really have to put the Sox away early to win. If this series goes back to Boston a second time, I just don't think the Rockies will have enough to win. The key for them will simply be to get a split in Boston. It will be Beckett vs. Francis in Game 1, with a clear advantage going to the Sox in that one. If Colorado can somehow beat Beckett, they will not only get a 1-0 series lead, but they will both keep the momentum going on their own streak (21 wins in 22 games), they will halt the Sox' winning ways as well, and throw them back into the position they were in during the Cleveland series.

Interesting news handed down today, as Wake will be left off the roster for the series, meaning that right now, there is no starter for Game 4. Schill will go Game 2, Dice in Game 3, but who will go Game 4? It is totally dependent on how the series has gone up to that point. One of the factors will be what the series advantage is at that point. If there's a 3-0 lead for either team, I would think Beckett will be in there to attempt to save/win the series for the Sox. However, if it's 2-1, I think the Sox will call upon Jon Lester to pitch the fourth game. Lester pitched a simulated game today, and from what the people on the inside are rumbling, it went very well. So, that will be interesting if it comes down to that situation about how effective Lester will be. Despite getting rocked in the 11th inning of Game 2, Lester came in Game 4 and was masterful, giving up just one hit and striking out four in three innings of relief.

Probably the biggest story going is the lay-off the Rockies have had before the Series starts, which will hit nine days on Wednesday. I guess the reason this is so big is because of what happened last year. After Detroit quickly bounced the A's in the ALCS, they were heavy favorites, and St. Louis was made out to be a team that was basically an after-thought in terms of even standing a chance in the series. So after the Cardinals pulled it off last year, I can see why some writers would look to that as being a "key" or whatever. Personally, I think it's completely different this year. The Sox come in as overwhelming favorites, and right now, no one is giving the Rockies a chance. Remember, this is a team that rifled its way through the last part of the season and the playoffs, and really should not be taken lightly. Also, they've been catching a tremendous amount of breaks, especially in the Wild Card determining game, where Matt Holliday was clearly out, yet called safe at home. If the Padres win that game, that's it for the Rockies. They won't be mentioned until probably next April at the earliest. However, they got that call, and proceeded to beat down on Philly and Arizona. While these are two good teams, they are not the caliber of team the Sox are. Also, the Sox have been catching breaks lately as well. So could it come down to a team that catches the most breaks? Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Game 1 will definitely be the table-setter. The Rockies, as of right now, have been given absolutely no shot to beat Beckett. If they go out and pull off the improbable, they will be sitting pretty, with the series at least split going back to Denver, having beaten the best pitcher in baseball right now. For the Sox, Game 1 will not be a clear indication on how they can expect the series to unfold. That honor will go to Dice-K pitching at Mile High in Game 3. Call me overconfident, call me what you will, but I'm not really concerned about the first two games. Don't get me wrong, I am sitting here filled with as much anticipation as I can possibly have for any sporting event my team is involved in, but I am already looking at Game 3 as the potential tipping point of the series. Again, if I'm in charge, Dice-K doesn't even get a chance to pitch in Denver. He pitches Game 2, and Game 6 if necessary. Schilling has been there done that not only in the postseason, but in Denver. He was in the National League until '04, and made 14 starts in Denver. But hey, I'm sitting here writing as a fan, and that's all. I like Dice, and I hope he pitches well in Game 3, but I'm big on experience and a proven track record. In any event, I still don't know all there is to know about the Rockies, but I'm anxiously waiting to find out what they've got in store for the Sox.

Game 1 of the World Series tomorrow night.

So, again, a big thank you to the city of Cleveland, the Indians, and their fans for thinking they had the series in the bag, and taking us for granted. Now you're crushed, and you have all winter to think about it. We've done it before so don't feel bad...wait...yeah you should.

Game 1 of the World Series tomorrow night.

Believe.

Peace.

~Mell-o

Pats/Dolphins Preview

"Where the days are longer
The nights are stronger than moonshine."

So here you go. The spreadsheet tables came up horribly. Sorry about that. In any event, I hope this gets put up on Saturday. Hopefully, this will help you for those two to three minutes that ESPN is not running coverage, pseudo-presidential assassination/major catastrophe, about Joe Torre not going back to the Yankees. Sure, it's a big story that Torre felt disrespected, but is there any chance you can talk about a team that is still playing games? I guess we get our 15 minutes, and they get their day and a half...typical. In any event, Joe Torre has now taken the lead for my favorite manager ever, and until Francona puts Ellsbury in to replace Coco (i.e., freggin tomorrow), Torre will assume the pole position. He stuck it to the Yankees almost as bad as we did in '04.

Pats Looking To Avoid A Letdown Facing The Winless Dolphins

“And maybe there's no peace in this world, for us or for anyone else, I don't know. But I do know that, as long as we live, we must remain true to ourselves.” ~Spartacus

Here’s a look at how the Patriots match up against the Dolphins in this week’s game at Miami.

Trends:

New England:

Since 2005:

• 11-5 after playing a road game
• 11-5 after scoring 25 or more points
• 5-4 on grass
• 11-3 vs. AFC East opponents
• 5-4 when the over/under is over 47.5 (currently 51.5)

Miami:

Since 2005:

• 9-9 at home
• 2-1 when underdogged by 10 or more points (current line: NE -16.5)
• 5-12 after playing a road game
• 6-15 after a loss
• 3-2 as a home underdog

Last Meeting: 12/10/2006: Miami 21, New England 0 (Dolphin Stadium)

Interesting Fact: Despite being tied with Roger Staubach for the most wins ever for a quarterback in his first 100 starts (76), Tom Brady is just 2-4 in six career starts at Miami.

Stats:

TOTAL OFFENSE

NE/MIA

POINTS/GAME: 38.1 (1ST)/21.3 (13TH)
YARDS/GAME: 431.2 (1ST)/325.0 (21ST)
TURNOVERS: 5 (2ND)/12 (23RD)
PENALTIES: 26 (9TH)/43 (29TH)
PENALTY YARDS: 225 (13TH)/348 (30TH)
3RD DOWN: 48.5% (14TH)/40.0% (23RD)
4TH DOWN: 60.0% (3RD)/100.0% (1ST)
SCORING EFFICIENCY: 56.5% (2ND)/40.3% (6TH)

TOTAL DEFENSE

NE/MIA

OPP. POINTS/GAME: 15.3 (6TH)/30.3 (29TH)
OPP. TOTAL YARDS/GAME: 257.0 (2ND)/352.2 (23RD)
OPP. 3RD DOWN: 30.6% (1ST)/53.8% (31ST)
OPP. 4TH DOWN: 50.0% (14TH)/66.7% (29TH)
OPP. SCORING EFFICIENCY: 22.7% (2ND)/54.1% (32ND)

Opponents’ Grades And Analysis:

PASS OFFENSE

CLEO LEMON QB C+
MARTY BOOKER WR B
TED GINN, JR. WR B-
DEREK HAGAN WR C
DAVID MARTIN TE B-

Miami traded away its best receiver, Chris Chambers, to the Chargers for a second round pick in next year’s draft. Does that mean they are throwing the towel in on this season? Not necessarily. Lemon has proved to be a capable quarterback coming in for Trent Green. Lemon accounted for four touchdowns in last week’s loss to Cleveland (two rushing, two passing). While Lemon loses a nice weapon in Chambers, it didn’t appear as though he was relied on too heavily in scoring situations, having zero touchdown catches. Marty Booker has been a consistently solid guy catching balls. Ted Ginn has become a bigger part of the offense with every passing week, and quite frankly has to be considering the spot he was taken in the draft. Look for a bunch of balls to go his way with Booker being covered by Asante Samuel. David Martin is quietly becoming one of the better young tight ends in the league. While not mentioned above, Ronnie Brown is now the team’s leading receiver, and will get a lot of looks coming out of the backfield.

RUSH OFFENSE

RONNIE BROWN RB A-
REAGAN MAUIA FB C
VERNON CAREY LT B
CHRIS LIWIENSKI LG B
SAMSON SATELE C B-
REX HADNOT RG B-
L.J. SHELTON RT B-

On either side of the ball, this is by far and away the best part of this Dolphins team. Ronnie Brown has literally and figuratively carried this offense. His 526 yards on the ground places him third in the league. After battling injuries and having two average seasons (average for a guy picked 2nd overall in the draft), Brown has emerged as one of the top backs in the league. He also has a 5.2 average per carry, and has yet to fumble the football. The line in front of him is a little above average. Vernon Carey has made a fairly good transition from guard to tackle over the last few years. The Dolphins think Satele is a future Pro-Bowler at center, and they should hope so, as he was part of the compensation in the Wes Welker trade to the Patriots.

RUSH DEFENSE

MATT ROTH RDE B-
KEITH TRAYLOR RDT B
RODRIQUE WRIGHT LDT C-
JASON TAYLOR LDE A+
JOEY PORTER ROLB A-
ZACH THOMAS MLB A
CHANNING CROWDER LOLB B+

While this group certainly has a lot of big names and big talent, they are not getting any younger, and the rust is starting to show on them. Taylor is probably the best defensive end in football, and has been an absolute house of horrors against the Pats. You don’t have to look to far to see his, and the Dolphin dominance. Last year, in their 21-0 win at Miami, Taylor and Co. Sacked Tom Brady four times, held Corey Dillon to 79 yards rushing, and forced three fumbles. I expect the Dolphins to bullrush Brady with both Taylor and Joey Porter from opposite ends. Sammy Morris definitely won’t play, and Laurence Maroney likely won’t, so this unit will be facing third-stringer Kevin Faulk on Sunday, making it that much easier for them to disrupt the offense. Not having Vonnie Holliday in the lineup will certainly weaken the line, as Holliday and Taylor make up one of the best tackle/end combos in the league.

PASS DEFENSE

WILL ALLEN RCB B
RENALDO HILL FS B
CAMERON WORRELL SS D+
MICHAEL LEHAN RCB C

In all honesty, if the front seven does not get pressure on Brady, this unit will get absolutely torched. The Cowboys had a fairly good secondary, and look what happened to them. What Miami needs to do to is to stay at home on play fakes, and really read what Brady and the rest of the offense are doing to try and move the ball. They need to be looking to make the big play and try to get the offense good field position when they are starting their drives. If Brady has time, this game could get ugly real quick.

Advantages:

When New England Has The Ball:

NE OFFENSE/MIA DEFENSE/ADV.
RUN YARDS/GAME: 141.7 (7TH)/168.5 (31ST)/NE
YARDS/CARRY: 4.2 (14TH)/4.5 (25TH)/NE
RUSHING FIRST DOWNS: 58 (1ST)/55 (32ND)/NE
RUSHING FUMBLES: 2 (13TH)/1 (28TH)/NE
PASS YARDS/GAME: 289.5 (1ST)/183.7 (6TH)/NE
COMPLETION %: 72.5% (1ST)/58.7% (7TH)/NE
PASSING FIRST DOWNS: 87 (1ST)/60 (13TH)/NE
QB RATING: 128.9 (1ST)/96.7 (29TH)/NE
INTERCEPTIONS: 2 (4TH)/3 (30TH)/NE
SACKS: 6 (4TH)/8 (26TH)/NE

Advantage: New England

When Miami Has The Ball:

MIA OFFENSE/NE DEFENSE/ADV.
RUN YARDS/GAME: 104.5 (18TH)/78.3 (5TH)/NE
YARDS/CARRY: 4.8 (7TH)/4.0 (17TH)/MIA
RUSHING FIRST DOWNS: 43 (4TH)/27 (9TH)/MIA
RUSHING FUMBLES: 3 (19TH)/0 (30TH)/MIA
PASS YARDS/GAME: 220.5 (16TH)/178.7 (4TH)/NE
COMPLETION %: 58.8% (25TH)/59.3% (8TH)/NE
PASSING FIRST DOWNS: 70 (11TH)/63 (16TH)/MIA
QB RATING: 69.9 (26TH)/74.0 (9TH)/NE
INTERCEPTIONS: 10 (30TH)/9 (5TH)/NE
SACKS: 10 (15TH)/16 (6TH)/NE

Advantage: New England

Matchup Of The Game: Ronnie Brown vs. Patriots’ Front Seven

Last week, while Dallas did not run very often, when they did, they were extremely effective. It looked like the Pats would be missing two or three tackles on every single running play, but had a lead for basically the entire game, which forced Dallas to go through the air. This week, Richard Seymour is scheduled to come back and play. His effectiveness is unknown, but what can be said is that these guys are a whole lot better when he is in the lineup. Miami doesn’t have the best line, but they are solid, and they will test the Patriot resolve. Unlike Dallas, Miami clearly likes to keep things simple and go to Brown as much as they can both on the ground and passing to him out of the backfield. Roosevelt Colvin and Adalius Thomas, the two outside linebackers, are going to have to watch out for this all game long. While Lemon is susceptible to the occasional sack, he can be elusive, and when he can escape pressure, it leaves the secondary and the linebackers in coverage exposed. If the Patriots are planning on a blowout, they need to keep Brown in check. Last year, then-Dolphin Sammy Morris ran for 123 yards and a score. I would not be surprised if Brown was able to duplicate those numbers.

Key Injuries:

New England:

• Randall Gay: Questionable (thigh)
• Laurence Maroney: Questionable (groin)
• Sammy Morris: Out (chest)
• Benjamin Watson: Questionable (ankle)
• Adalius Thomas: Questionable (ankle)
• Donte’ Stallworth: Questionable (knee)

Miami:

• Trent Green: Out (concussion)
• Vonnie Holliday: Out (ankle)
• Travares Tillman: Out (knee)
• David Martin: Probable (ankle)
• Zach Thomas: Probable (toe)

New England Keys To Victory:

1. Turnover Margin: Last year, the Pats did themselves in by fumbling four times, losing three of them. To eliminate any chance the Dolphins may have in this game, the Patriots cannot give Miami any cheap points by turning the ball over in their own territory, and set the Dolphins up with a short field.

2. Stop The Run: While it will be really hard to totally “stop” the run, the Pats need to at least contain Ronnie Brown. If they allow him to do his usual damage of 100 yards and over five yards a carry, the Dolphins will be able to control the pace of the game, which does not bode well for the Pats, especially considering this team is very hungry for their first win, and have shown that they can put up a lot of points given the right opportunities.

3. Move The Ball On The Miami Secondary: The Pats have the #1 passing offense in the league, and considering both Maroney and Morris could be out for this one, New England will have to rely on Tom Brady more than ever. While Miami is bad against the run, and they have the sixth best pass defense in yards, they are 29th in yards per attempt, 29th in opposing QB rating, and 30th in interceptions, meaning that the front seven does most of the damage for the secondary. If the Pats’ line can slow the impending pass rush, Brady should be able to put up big numbers in Miami.

Miami Keys To Victory:

1. Constant Pressure On Brady: This was how they won the game last year. The defense got to Patriot quarterbacks five times in that game. They seemed to be in Brady’s face all game long, and had just a few seconds to drop back and find a receiver. Brady was 12 of 25 for just 78 yards. If Jason Taylor does what he did last year, and if Zach Thomas can play the way he always has against New England, Miami could force some turnovers, and have a real shot at winning this game.

2. Ronnie Brown All Day Long: Once the Dolphins traded away Chris Chambers, Brown has become the Dolphins’ only big-play guy. He does it on the ground, and he does it catching the ball as well. The Patriot defense looked dreadful in the meaningful parts of last week’s game against Dallas’ running attack, so if Miami can control that aspect, Cleo Lemon could open it up and throw to Ted Ginn or Marty Booker in single coverage.

3. History: It seems that no matter how well the Patriots are playing, they have an incredibly tough time playing in Miami. Maybe it’s the humidity, maybe it’s the defense, but the Pats have never seemed right playing the Dolphins in Florida, while the same can be said about Miami playing up in Foxboro. Sure, the Patriots have looked unstoppable, but this could be a letdown game after playing Dallas, and hosting the Redskins next week. If they overlook the Dolphins, their perfect season may come to a screeching halt.

Game Time: 1:00 (CBS), Dolphin Stadium, Miami, FL

Go Cocks. Go Sox. Go Pats!!! Peace.

~Mell-o

ALCS Game 5 Recap/NFL Week 7/College Week 8 Predictions

"I'm shipping up to Boston."

Well, that was a relief, and who would have thought before the series that C.C. Sabathia would be a welcomed sight for the Sox. Despite more umpiring blunders, the Sox were able to get 10 hits off the slightly larger than life lefty, scored four earned off of him, and were able to get enough of a cushion for the wunderkind, Josh Beckett, to be able to breathe a little easier (unlike myself), and once again shut down the Cleveland offense, who has been able to get the timely bloop hit, random Sox infielder deflection, then a three-run homer basically all series long. While they did get the first two (by the way, after watching Lugo botch so many plays in the infield and swing at so many pitches off the plate, is there anyone left on this planet that is thinking that dumping Cabrera three years ago was a solid move?...do you not see the continuing digression going on?...and also, when they had a good shortstop (Alex Gonzalez), they signed him for one year, but when they got two inferior players (maybe it's just me, but I think Gonzalez is better than Renteria despite his resurgence in Atlanta...I'm talking better in terms of playing in Boston), the Sox signed them to four year deals...sort of interesting I guess), Beckett was able to stop any hint of bleeding that was impending, and was dominant over eight innings. Then, in probably the best move he's made all postseason, Francona put in Papelbon in the ninth, despite being up six runs, purely for the fact that if he allowed any of the "scrub" relievers to come in (Lopez or Gagne...for right now, Gagne is a scrub...I still haven't completely given up on him because of how good he has been in recent history, with "recent" meaning the first half of this season, but he has been tremendously awful since dawning the Sox uniform...thus, scrub), then they probably would have given up two or three runs, and driven down the Sox confidence in their bullpen, which was already pretty low to begin with.

In any event, scoring first was absolutely pivotal, with Youk hitting a solo shot in the first. After the Tribe had scored first in each of the first four games, it was nice to be on top in the early going for once. After Ramirez hit that "single" in the third, I got flashbacks to Game 6 of the ALCS, the last time in a Sox playoff game that the umpires huddled up to make a key decision to affect the outcome. I determined to myself that if we got the call, the Indians would have no shot, and if it was upheld, we would be in trouble. It was upheld...but the Sox were able to put a run up on the board, and no one was called out on the play, so it wasn't completely horrible. Still, the Sox do not need anymore blown calls going against them...they need blown calls for them...they definitely still need a lot of luck if they are going to pull this one off. Fortunately, for whatever reason, Kenny Lofton decided it would be in his best interest to go after Beckett after, apparently, Beckett trash-talked him as he flew out to left. While this wasn't exactly A-Rod-Varitek game-changing, it did halt any kind of momentum the Tribe may have ever gotten, especially considering that Beckett barely blinked while Lofton came out and started screaming at him. I have to say, in a fight, I have Beckett winning in a second round TKO, and the only reason the fight would go on that long would be because Lofton would dance around most of the first round...but he's 40...he'll get tired, and then it's all over. What is interesting is that Cleveland's "hero" was reduced to nothing more than a crybaby who only motivated a pitcher who was already mowing the Indians down. The hero for the Red Sox, Manny, doesn't let anything bother him anymore. Remember in 2003 when he went off on Clemens purely to start a fight even though the pitch he went off about wasn't really that close to hitting him? I just don't see that kind of thing happening. In my opinion, you want to keep Manny away from as many details as possible, like who's pitching, who's winning, where they're playing, that kind of stuff. This guy is perfect for the postseason, because any kind of pressure just slides right off of him...because really, what does he have to prove? He has a ring, and was the MVP of that series, now he has the record for the longest hitting streak ever in the LCS (he either has it, or he's tied with Pete Rose, one of the two)...he's done pretty much everything a baseball player can do for their career. He's a first-ballot hall-of-famer, and probably has another four or five good years left, so he really doesn't have anything to worry about. Considering all the members of Red Sox Nation (including myself) can do is freak out about every little thing this team does, it's nice to see a guy who just doesn't care about what the situation is, or how much of a pressure cooker one at-bat will be. Rather, he goes up to bat and out in the field with the same aloof, fun-loving attitude that has both won him love and ridicule from all kinds of baseball fans. So, it's onto Game 6...anyone recall how Schilling did the last time he pitched in a Game 6?

Anyone?

Ok, onto predictions...ok I was horrible last week. I will be the first to admit that I took a turn for the worse, at least for straight up predictions. Then, two QB injuries killed me in the NFL (Young and Warner). Oh well, I did well ATS, so for those of you in foreign countries where gambling is not "illegal," I hope some of those picks helped you out. In any event, it's back to the grindstone. Also, I'm going to make the explanations quicker, because looking back at the time when I had to rush to go drink a ton of beer at Oktoberfest, I did really well. Also, if I mention the words "will kick the crap out of," I tend to lose. So, onward and upward...

First, once again, I should have thrown out a Thursday night pick, because I once again saw it coming. Good for Rutgers, good for BC, good for USC...and the Bruins won again...what a night!

College:
USC vs. Vanderbilt: 4-0 ATS in the SEC. Interestingly, the Cocks play Vandy tougher on the road than they do at Williams-Brice. Oh well. Go Cocks! (W, -13).

Tennessee vs. Alabama: The last time these two played in Tuscaloosa, the score was 6-3 tide...yikes. While I don't think it will be quite that low-scoring, I do know that Tennessee has played three road games, two of whom were quality opponents, like 'Bama will be, and they got run in both. Roll Tide (W, +1).

Texas Tech vs. Missouri: Tech is coming off a huge win over A&M, while Mizzou was very impressive against Oklahoma at Norman. Now, these two will face each other at Mizzou, where the Tigers have been dominant at home, while Tech has the #1 passing offense and scoring offense in the country. This will not be one for the fans of defense. Mizzou has won their last two meetings, hopefully they can make it a third. Mizzou (W, -3).

Miami vs. Florida St.: Despite the fact that Florida St. is probably the better team, these teams play each other so close each year that there's no way I can pick FSU ATS in this one. I think it will come down to a field goal...like it always does. Florida St. (W) and Miami (+6.5).

Auburn vs. LSU: Again, this is one of those games that seems to always be close. Auburn has won four in a row, and can clearly play well in hostile environments...just ask the Florida Gators. LSU (W), Auburn (+11.5).

Southern Cal vs. Notre Dame: This is not your big brother of two years' Southern Cal team. No, this one is actually just not so good. Booty may return, but watch out, ND is starting a new QB, their third, and have covered three in a row. Southern Cal (W), Notre Dame (+20).

Arkansas vs. Ole Miss: Sometimes, you really have no explanation of why you like a game. This happens to be one of them. I guess my reasoning is that when playing at The Grove, Ole Miss is extremely difficult to play against...again, ask the Florida Gators. 'Bama barely snuck out with a win last week, and eventually, the cookie will crumble. Also, the Hogs have played one, count 'em, one away game, I'll take the Rebs (W, +6).

Michigan St. vs. Ohio St.: When the dust finally settled from last week, the Buckeyes became the #1 team in the country. The Spartans have been able to hang in there for most of the year, bouncing back from a crusher against Northwestern to beat up on Indiana. I like the way MSU plays at Columbus as well, so I'll split the difference. Ohio St. (W), Michigan St. (+19).

Wake Forest vs. Navy: Really, it comes down to Navy's run game vs. Wake's defense. The Deacons have had success stopping the run so far this year, and have won four in a row. Navy has won three in a row themselves, including a wild one last week at Pitt. Wake has played their last five on grass, with their only loss coming at home to Nebraska...when they were good...by a field goal. Wake (W, -3).

Last Week: SU: 4-6, ATS: 6-4
Season: SU: 34-22, ATS: 30-23-3

NFL
New England vs. Miami: Of course I'm going with the Pats here, but seriously, it will be interesting to see how this game plays out. Miami won 21-0 at Dolphin Stadium last year, and they did put up 35 last week. The problem is that, despite going 12-4 last year, the Pats are a team that is on another planet compared to last year. Still though, the Pats have so many injuries going into the game that I'm feeling like they will be sitting a bunch of their starters, meaning that Miami will be able to hang around in this one. Pats (W), Miami (+16.5).

Arizona vs. Washington: So the status of Warner is up in the air, and I have to say that, given what happened against Carolina, the Cardinals are going to be in trouble against the 'Skins. Also, the 'Skins defense is really, really good, and I would like to see a good performance from Chris Cooley, who resides on every single fantasy team I have (him, Brady, Kitna, and Gostkowski). Redskins (W, -7).

Atlanta vs. New Orleans: I would personally like to thank the Saints for showing up last week and killing my pick of the enigmatic Seahawks. So, are they back? I know who isn't, and that's the Falcons, who now go into full-on Byron Leftwich mode after getting crushed by the G-Men at home. The Saints have won three straight ATS against Atlanta in the Superdome...why change a good thing? Saints (W, -7.5).

Baltimore vs. Buffalo: A battle of two former Pac-10 quarterbacks who were on the bench to start the season. The Ravens, despite being 4-2, are 1-5 ATS. That's an indication that people are giving them way too much credit. Buffalo is also 3-0 ATS while being at home and 'dogged, losing all of those games straight up, but only by a combined five points. I'll take Buffalo (W, +3).

Minnesota vs. Dallas: Despite leading the league in rushing, the Vikings are content to stick with Adrian Peterson as their #2 back. You know, I like their thinking. Keep Peterson fresh and let Chester Taylor pound out yards, eventually wear himself out, and make the Peterson transition a lot smoother. Dallas got blown out by you know who last week, and have not looked good in their last two games. Good luck running on this defense too. With Minnesota having a win and two pushes on the road, I'll take Dallas to win (W), but the Vikings to cover (+10.5).

San Francisco vs. New York: Well, I can say this: Thank goodness the Niners are losing. Going into this year, this was everyone's "sexy" pick to win the NFC West. Now, after three losses, it's looking like they are going nowhere fast. The Giants are basically doing what they did last year, which is start off real hot, and what's going to happen is that they'll come down to Earth sometime soon. However, I don't think it will be this week. G-Men (W, -9.5).

Tampa Bay vs. Detroit: The two former Lions backups square off, as the two guys they were #2 to (Josh McCown and Joey Harrington) are now riding the pine in their respective locales. What's nice is that because Detriot got demolished by Washington two weeks ago, they get a handicap of about six points in this one. After a bye, Calvin Johnson should be back to full health, and Tampa still has no running game, even though they barely snuck out a win against the Vince Young-less Titans. Lions (W, -2).

Tennessee vs. Houston: I hope Vince Young plays in this one, because if he does, it should be another epic like the game last year, when Young made his improbable TD run in OT to give the Titans the W. The last three contests have been decided by six or less. This game is off the boards at most places because Young's presence is a three point mover. Andre Johnson for Houston is another game-time decision. This is probably one of the biggest unknown games you may ever see. Who's healthy? Who isn't? I'll take the Texans (W, +1.5).

Kansas City vs. Oakland: All the money in this game is being tossed on the Chiefs after their win against the Bungles last week (they have officially stepped back into "Bungle" mode too by the way). Oakland has lost there last three meetings at home to KC. Also, Oakland is 0-2 ATS at home this year. I'll go KC (+3).

New York vs. Cincinnati: I feel like Ty in Caddyshack when Carl asks him how he likes his place with this game. "It's really...really awful." Wow. Well, let's see. Rudi Johnson may not be able to go again, but the drive to play Kellen Clemens will come up short for another week. I have to go with the Bungles (W, -6).

Chicago vs. Philadelphia: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the NFC. Just when it looked like the Bears were on the right track after beating Green Bay, Adrian Peterson goes for over 200 on the ground in their loss at home against the Vikes. Given how well the NFC East has played the NFC North (especially the Lions getting absolutely beaten down by Philly and Washington), I'll go with the Eagles and Brian Westbrook (W, -5).

St. Louis vs. Seattle: For the second straight week, the Seahawks will take on a winless team at home. Seattle will be without Deion Branch again, and the Rams will still be without Steven Jackson, but will get Marc Bulger back, meaning that this game is a little bit harder to predict now. Seattle has won the last three, but the last two have been by a combined five points. If Seattle loses this game, the NFC West could officially be the worst division in sports history. So, I'm hoping Seattle gets their act together. Seattle (W), and the Rams to cover (+8.5).

Pittsburgh vs. Denver: This one is almost too good to be true, which means that my pick is in trouble here. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS and have won the last two ATS at Denver. They also are coming off a bye, and will get Troy Polamalu, Hines Ward, and Casey Hampton back. Denver, meanwhile, has looked downright awful, going 0-5 ATS this season. They too are coming off a bye, but still will not be able to get Javon Walker back. Again, this is too good to be true. Pittsburgh (W, -3.5).

Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville: Despite all the hype for the "Duel in Dallas," this could become the game of the year thus far in the NFL. The Jags just crushed a Texans team that usually plays them tough 37-17 last week, while Indy, who is 5-0, was on a bye. To say I love Jacksonville in this game is an understatement. The Colts are 2-0 in the division, but have only won by a combined eight points in those games, while winning their other three by a combined 68 points. Give me the home 'dog (W, +3.5).

Last Week: SU: 8-5, ATS: 7-4-2
Season: SU: 59-30, ATS: 49-31-9

The Pats Insider preview will be up soon. Have a great weekend everyone. Go Sox! Peace.

~Mell-o

Game 5 Article

"You may be right
I may be crazy
Oh, but it just may be a lunatic you're looking for."

Ugh. Once again, the Sox looked awful in every stage of the game, and now their facing elimination, with all of the momentum going against them. I did a little article for Sports Central, and I'll probably be doing a post after Game 5 whether we win or lose. For now, I hope you enjoy this one. It's short, but talking about the Sox getting bounced from the playoffs is about the most depressing thing ever, so I kept things pretty succinct.

Down 3-1, Sox Look To Their Ace To Stay Alive

Facing elimination, the Red Sox will turn to Josh Beckett on Thursday to strafe off elimination from the baseball postseason. Beckett has been the team’s most reliable pitcher all season, and now, with the Sox on the ropes, Boston will put its collective faith on the 27-year old to get the series back to Boston, and keep the Sox playing in October.

The Red Sox entered the season as one of the favorites to win the World Series, but after an abysmal showing in their last two games at Jacobs Field, they find themselves in the precarious situation of win, or go home. This is not the first, and will likely not be the last time that this franchise will be in this situation, and they have actually some recent success in these spots.

Down 0-2 in the 2003 ALDS, Boston rallied back to beat Oakland in three straight games, sending the team to the ALCS, where they inevitably lost to the Yankees in seven games. Then, in the 2004 ALCS, the Sox were facing elimination against the Yankees, and after losing Game 3 19-8, and going down three games to none. However, with some heroics, the Sox made baseball history, becoming the first team in baseball history to win a seven-game series after being down 0-3.

Beckett is no stranger to the postseason. In seven career starts in the playoffs, Beckett has gone 4-2 with a 1.87 ERA, including two wins this postseason. In 2003, Beckett, then 23, won the World Series MVP after winning the series clincher for the Marlins on two days rest. In three career starts in championship series, Beckett is 2-0 with a 3.20 ERA, and won the first game of this year’s ALCS at Fenway, guiding the team to a 10-3 victory, going six innings and giving up four hits.

Opposing Beckett will be his opponent from Game 1, C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia got rocked in their first matchup, giving up eight runs in 4 1/3 innings. Even so, it has become clear that one of these two pitchers will win this year’s AL Cy Young Award, so relying on Sabathia to copy his performance from Game 1 will be a bit of a stretch, especially considering the venue. The Indians fans have been going crazy since Game 3, and it seems like this trend will carry over into the fifth game, where the Indians could go to the World Series for the first time since 1997, and look to capture its first World Series title in 60 years.

The Sox’ offense has been put in neutral ever since Manny Ramirez and Mike Lowell hit back-to-back home runs off of Rafael Perez in Game 2, and have been outscored 18-5 since that point. While they have shown hints of life in the past two games, with a two-run home run by Jason Varitek in Game 3 to close the deficit to two runs, and back-to-back-to-back homers in Game 4 to make the score 7-3, they have been unable to do anything else to capitalize on those offensive outbursts.

Cleveland has scored first in each of the four games of the series. In addition, the Sox were able to get to the two pitchers, Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, who were the headliners of the Indians’ staff, and have been completely ineffective against Cleveland’s other two starters, Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd, who combined to give up four runs over 11 2/3 innings in their wins.

It seems like the seven-run 12th inning in Game 2 by the Indians has been a back-breaker for the Sox, whose bullpen was completely exposed after their big guns, Mike Timlin, Hideki Okajima, and Jonathan Papelbon, were used earlier. With their best pitcher going in what could be the final game of the season for the Sox, it will be up to Beckett to keep Boston in the game, and also, it will be up to the offense to make a turnaround and send the series back to Fenway Park, where Boston has had so much success this season.

That's all for now. Take care. Peace.

~Mell-o

Pats/Cowboys Review

"I'd like to fly
My wings have been so denied."

I'm just so upset by Game 3 I can't even stand myself right now. The called strike on Manny in the top of the sixth could have been one of the worst called strikes in baseball history...and honestly, you don't even have to be as biased as I am to know that. In any event, I'll be writing a baseball article pretty soon for Sports Central, and I'll have that up shortly. With all the chaos going on the past few days, I haven't even had time to check my e-mail, let alone put up a column. I did find time to do a recap of the Pats game for the Insider. Hope you enjoy:

Cowboy Down: Pats Move To 6-0 With A 48-27 Win At Dallas

“I'm only just beginning. From this night forward I'll use every means in my power to fight you!” ~The Adventures of Robin Hood

Through two and a half quarters, the game featuring two undefeateds, built up as the “Duel in Dallas,” was building up to its wild west mantra, but once again, the Patriots proved to be too much to handle, and when all was said and done, Dallas was left in the dust.

New England had yet another double-digit victory, their sixth consecutive to start the season. This marks just the second time in NFL history that a team has scored 30 or more points in their first six games, joining the 2000 St. Louis Rams. Their 48 points on Sunday was the sixth most points scored in franchise history, and the most they have scored since 1984.

In Tom Brady’s 100th NFL start, he had arguably his finest game ever, throwing for a career-high five touchdowns and 388 yards in the victory. Brady now stands alone in NFL history, throwing three or more touchdowns in six consecutive games. He sits atop the NFL with his 21 scoring strikes, a new NFL record for the first six games, six more than opposing quarterback Tony Romo. In addition, Brady now leads the NFL in yards (1,771), completion percentage (72.5%), and quarterback rating (128.9).

Once again, the Patriots were able to score on their opening drive, and have scored first in every game this year, and now nine games in a row dating back to last season. On the drive, New England converted on four third downs, with the fourth conversion being a six-yard touchdown from Brady to Randy Moss.

Moss has undergone a career renaissance after being traded from Oakland to New England, and once again leads the league in yards (610) and touchdowns (7). Moss has recorded a touchdown in five of his six games as a Patriot. While Moss definitely has benefitted from a change of scenery, Tom Brady now has the big, down-field target that he has been missing his entire career.

"I've always been a fan of Tom Brady.” Moss told reporters following the game. “I've always (wondered) if Peyton Manning has his receivers why can't Tom have his. Now that Tom has his, we'll see."

Moss does bring up a valid issue in terms of comparing the two quarterbacks, which has gone on since Brady’s emergence as an elite quarterback once he took over as New England’s starter. While Manning has had the benefit of throwing to countless first-round picks, as well as always having a solid running game and offensive line, Brady has had to use patch-work receiving corps, and has not always had a consistent running attack behind him. With the receivers the Patriot front office got for Brady, he is off to by far his best season to date, and has looked almost untouchable because of the outstanding help he continues to get from his offensive line and his running game.

Dallas’ offense looked abysmal in the first quarter, starting the game with three three-and-outs. Tony Romo, who had drawn comparisons to Brady going into the game, looked out of place, going 1-for-5 for 2 yards on those first three drives.

“It's a long game and you just have to keep playing.” Romo remarked about his first quarter struggles. “You try and do stuff that is not there; on the first couple of possessions they just covered things and if you try and fit it in somewhere that is not there then they have us beat already because you are throwing right into their hands.”

New England was able to capitalize on their strong defensive effort once again in the first, with Brady this time finding another Patriots off-season acquisition, Wes Welker, on a 35-yard score down the middle of the field. Welker was double-teamed on the play, but was able to use his speed and elusiveness to run right through both Dallas defenders, making himself open for the past.

“He's a threat anytime he's out there.” Brady said about Welker. “He's elusive, he's very quick, he's very smart and he makes a lot of guys miss."

Dallas was finally able to get on the scoreboard with a Nick Folk 38-yard field goal, capping off a drive that carried over from the first quarter and into the second, making it a 14-3 game. On the ensuing New England drive, the Patriots attempted some trickery to catch the Cowboys off guard, and tried to hit Randy Moss down the field for a big play by using a flea-flicker with Sammy Morris. This was the second time in the game that New England attempted a trick play to find Moss down the middle of the field and over the top of the Dallas secondary. On the first play of the game for New England, the Pats attempted a fake end-around with Welker, but like the flea flicker, their attempt came up short. It was clear from the onset that the Patriots were looking to establish their dominance early on, and were looking to silence the Cowboys and their fans before they knew what hit them.

After the failed flea-flicker attempt, the Patriots offense made their one glaring mistake of the day. With Brady stepping back for a pass Greg Ellis came from behind and not only sacked Brady, but forced him to fumble the ball. Jason Hatcher then picked the ball up and rumbled 29 yards the other way for the score, putting Dallas right back into the game at 14-10. For the first time all game, Dallas fans had something to cheer about, as their defense had been cut up on two of the first three Patriot drives, and the offense was struggling to get any movement at all.
Once the Patriots got the ball back, Brady was determined to make up for his turnover, and marched the offense down the field with a vengeance. The drive ended like so many did, with a Brady touchdown pass. This time, he once again found Welker over the middle, this time on a short crossing pattern, to put the Pats back on top by 11. The offense converted on another three third down plays, and were 11-for-17 on the day in converting on third downs.

Welker was another Patriot to have a career day. After collecting just one receiving touchdown for his career, Welker now has three touchdowns this year, and in addition to having his first two-touchdown game, recorded career-highs in receptions (11) and receiving yards (124). This was Welker’s first 100-yard receiving game of his career.

While he may not be the biggest target on the field, Welker is quickly becoming a favorite target of Brady. With Troy Brown having to start the year on the PUP list, Welker has filled in beautifully for him at the slot position.

Welker on his involvement in the offense: “There's some different things that we are able to do and there are some routes that get me open...We just have some underneath stuff and when we are able to stretch the play out, there's some room for me to move."

Dallas got the ball back with three and a half minutes to go in the half, and quickly went down the field on the right arm of Romo, as he completed 7-of-8 passes for 84 yards on the drive, which ended when Romo found Terrell Owens over the middle for a 12-yard touchdown with under a minute to go, again getting Dallas to within four points of the lead.

While Owens did not speak to reporters at any point during the week or before the game, the sign he left on his locker, referring to Moss as “the other #81,” and the words “getcha popcorn ready” left as some sort of indication of how he would play in the game, clearly fell short of anything Owens had in mind. While he did make a few nice catches, he was held mostly in check, catching six balls for 66 yards and the score. When asked afterwards about Moss’ performance, Owens answered “next question,” a response made famous by Owens’ agent, Drew Rosenhaus, during a press conference last year.

The second half opened with the Patriots going three and out, including another sack of Brady. The Patriot offensive line was tested all game long, and did bend at times, allowing three sacks, which equaled the amount given up by the team in the first five games combined. Once the Cowboys got the ball back, they wasted little time going down the field. The Cowboys finally started to go to the running game, handing the ball off to Julius Jones on two straight plays, and Jones responded by picking up 25 and 18 yards respectfully. Romo hit Patrick Crayton in the back of the end zone to give Dallas their first lead of the game at 24-21. This was the first time all season that the Patriots fell behind in the second half.

Once again, the Patriots responded to the Dallas score with one of their own. On the first play of the drive, Sammy Morris left the game with a chest injury, and would not return for the rest of the game. This meant that the top two running backs for New England, Morris and Laurence Maroney, were both out of the game, leaving Kevin Faulk to handle the running responsibilities. Faulk responded by collecting 50 yards on 13 carries, and fared much better than Morris, who was only able to get 14 yards on 10 carries.

The key play of the series came when Pat Watkins was flagged for pass interference on Randy Moss, setting up a first and goal for the Pats at the 1 yard line. Probably the key statistic of the game, besides all of New England’s offensive numbers, was the penalties amassed by Dallas, which is something that has plagued them all year long. With 12 penalties, the Cowboys chalked up 98 penalty yards.

Once down at the one, New England brought in their “jumbo” set, which included Junior Seau at fullback, Heath Evans in the backfield, and Mike Vrabel lined up at the end of the line. Brady faked the handoff to Evans, and looked to hook up with Vrabel again like they had done so many times before in the past. Only this time, the Cowboys knew what was coming, and double covered Vrabel as he ran into the end zone. This, however, left Kyle Brady wide open in the back of the end zone, and for the first time all year, the Brady-to-Brady combo connected for a touchdown. One cannot begin to underscore how valuable Vrabel is not only catching the ball, but acting as a decoy, especially on this play, getting “actual” receivers open because of his past performances. Later on in the quarter, Stephen Gostkowski kicked a 45-yard field goal to make it a seven point game heading into the fourth quarter.

Dallas’ last gasp came at the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the ball close to midfield. On a fourth and one play, it looked as though Marion Barber III, who at times looked totally overpowering and untacklable, had gotten Dallas a first down to continue the drive. However, once again, the Cowboys shot themselves in the foot, as Kyle Koiser was called for holding, and the drive was halted, forcing another Mat McBriar punt.

The Patriots’ had been searching for a knockout blow all throughout the second half, and the search finally concluded on the next drive. After converting on another third down attempt, the Pats had Donte’ Stallworth run a post pattern over the middle of the field, a place New England attacked all game long, and Brady connected with him in stride at around the Dallas 40. Then, Stallworth was able to break a Ken Hamlin tackle and take it to the house, completing a 69-yard pass play, putting the Patriots up by 14. Stallworth had been waiting for a game like this. After watching Randy Moss and Wes Welker each have huge starts, it seemed as though Stallworth was almost left out of the fun. Donte’ was targeted seven times for 136 yards and the touchdown. This was why the Patriots took a chance on Stallworth. After finishing second in the league last year with a 19.1 yards per catch average, and averaging at least 13 yards a catch his entire five-year career, Stallworth had become one of the best deep-ball targets in the entire league. This was his first 100-yard performance as a Patriot, and now, New England has had four different receivers in their first six games have 100-yard receiving games.

The final highlight of the game came with Dallas starting deep in their own territory down 41-27. Romo made his biggest mistake of the game by trying to force the issue, attempting to hit Terrell Owens on a crossing route over the middle. The ball was thrown well behind Owens, and into the waiting arms of Junior Seau. After Seau caught it, he proceeded to run with the ball clutched closely to his chest with two hands, which was a quite different approach than he used when intercepting a pass last week against Cleveland, as he held the ball in the air with one hand while still running. Seau’s third interception of the season marks a new career high for him, with all three coming in the last two games.

Now, let’s see how each team fared in the keys to the game:

New England:

1. Attack The Dallas Secondary: No doubt was this the biggest factor for the Patriots’ sixth win. Tom Brady picked apart the banged up defensive backfield, and was particularly successful going over the middle of the field, going after those safeties who were caught out of position so many times throughout the game.

2. Stop The Run Early: This was particularly puzzling to me, as Dallas, while being so effective running the ball, instead chose to go to the air to try and get themselves out of the deficit they faced early on in the game. Marion Barber looked unstoppable. At one point, he was nearly wrapped up for a safety, but broke five or six tackles to make his way out of the end zone and close to the original line of scrimmage, one of the best running plays not only of the game, but of the entire year. The Dallas running backs only had 14 carries between them, and chalked up 98 yards collectively, a 7.0 yard average.

3. An Effective Offensive Line: While their performance in this game wasn’t their best showing of the year, they did nevertheless help Brady out when he was in the pocket looking for receivers. Once Sammy Morris left the game, the offense became very pass-oriented, and despite their one-dimension game plan, the line still did a very nice job straying away any pressure that was attempted.

Dallas:

1. Not Asking Tony Romo To Do Too Much: Romo really didn’t put himself in a very vulnerable situation in terms of making a mistake until his fourth quarter interception to Seau. The Dallas passing game was fairly conservative, and Romo completed 62% of his passes and threw for two scores.

2. Establish The Run Early And Often: Again, I was shocked at how little Dallas ran the ball in this game. The few times they did, they were absolutely overpowering the Patriot defense. Anytime a defense gives up seven yards a carry, the thought process should be to continue to exploit that weakness. The Cowboys did not, and it hurt them in the end, as they lost the time of possession battle by almost 17 minutes.

3. Special Teams: While this game was close for a while, special teams did not factor in nearly as much as I thought they would. One thing to note is Wes Welker’s 12 yard average on punt returns, which gave New England some nice field position on a number of instances. The Cowboys are going to have to look into their coverage on punt and kick returns, as they clearly were weak in this area for the second week in a row.

Again, Game 4 is tonight. BC is #3, USC is #6, and South Florida has a tough one on Thursday at Rutgers, so you never know what's going to happen. Hope everyone is doing well. Stay strong Red Sox Nation! Peace.

~Mell-o

Pats/Cowboys Preview

"A rock feels no pain, and an island never cries."

One thing before I start:

Where does T.O. get off challenging the Pats' secondary and Randy Moss? Does he have any idea that he's about to hop on the Rodney Harrison express train? Also, does Randy Moss need any more motivation this year? If so, the other #81 definitely helped fuel the fire. Owens is such a jerk, and I hope everyone in Patriots nation throws their collective popcorn at the TV on an Owens sighting...idiot!

Ok, down to what matters:

A Texas-Sized Showdown For The Patriots

“My Lord, whatever I done, don't strike me blind for another couple of minutes.” ~Cool Hand Luke

Here is what to expect in the New England/Dallas game on Sunday:

Trends:

New England:

Since 2005:

• 14-4 on the road
• 7-1 vs. NFC opponents
• 4-4 when the over/under is above 47.5
• 22-6 on turf
• 13-3 when favored by between 3.5 and 9.5

Dallas:

Since 2005:

• 3-3 straight up when under-dogged by between 3.5 and 9.5 (current line: NE -6)
• 2-1 when the over/under is above 47.5
• 11-7 after a road game
• 11-7 at home
• 7-3 vs. AFC opponents

Last Meeting: 11/16/03: New England 12, Dallas 0 (Gillette Stadium)

Interesting Fact: The last time two 5-0 teams faced each other was in 2004, when the Patriots beat the Jets 13-7 at Foxboro.

Stats:

	TOTAL OFFENSE
	NE	DAL
POINTS/GAME	36.4 (1ST)	35.2 (2ND)
YARDS/GAME	427.8 (2ND)	429.6 (1ST)
TURNOVERS	4 (3RD)	10 (20TH)
PENALTIES	21 (6TH)	37 (29TH)
PENALTY YARDS	175 (8TH)	297 (29TH)
3RD DOWN	43.1 % (22ND)	48.5% (6TH)
4TH DOWN	50.0% (5TH)	80.0% (3RD)
SCORING EFFICIENCY	54.0% (2ND)	50.0% (3RD)
	TOTAL DEFENSE
	NE	DAL
OPP. POINTS/GAME	13.0 (3RD)	19.2 (13TH)
OPP. TOTAL YARDS/GAME	251.4 (2ND)	285.4 (8TH)
OPP. 3RD DOWN	29.4% (1ST)	38.1% (13TH)
OPP. 4TH DOWN	50.0% (19TH)	16.7% (5TH)
OPP. SCORING EFFICIENCY	20.0% (3RD)	24.1% (5TH)

Opponents Grades & Analysis:

	PASS OFFENSE
TONY ROMO	QB	A-
TERRELL OWENS	WR	A+
PATRICK CRAYTON	WR	B
MILES AUSTIN	WR	C-
JASON WITTEN	TE	A-

With Terry Glenn out of the lineup, Tony Romo has relied on the combination of Terrell Owens and Jason Witten to shoulder most of the load on the passing side. Romo has drawn comparisons to Brett Favre, and yes, Tom Brady. Romo has put up stellar numbers this year, averaging over 300 yards per contest. However, as seen last week, he is prone to taking too many chances. While he stayed conservative most of the year, Romo came undone in Buffalo, throwing five picks, two of which were returned for touchdowns. Owens once again has stirred the pot, challenging both the Patriots secondary and “the other #81,” Randy Moss. It will be interesting to see how the Pats handle Owens. Likely, Asante Samuel or Ellis Hobbs will try and “chip” him at the line, while Eugene Wilson and Rodney Harrison will be the over-the-top help. While Owens gets double-teamed, it sets up Witten to go over the middle and matchup with a linebacker in single coverage. This is why Witten is currently 4th in the NFC in yards with 407.

	RUSH OFFENSE
MARION BARBER III	RB	B+
JULIUS JONES	RB	B
FLOZELL ADAMS	LT	A-
KYLE KOSIER	LG	B
ANDRE GURODE	C	A-
LEONARD DAVIS	RG	A-
MARC COLOMBO	RT	B

The Cowboys have done a tremendous job revamping this offensive line, which was downright awful just a few years ago. Now, they are one of the strongest units in the game. Dallas, like so many teams, employs a two-running back system, with this one being one of the better ones around. Barber is a more of a “between the tackles” type of back while Jones still likes to bounce the ball outside and make plays down the sideline. For the Patriots, the key will be to get penetration up the middle. While the Patriots normally have a 3-4 base defense, I expect them to also use some 4-3 to combat the size of the Cowboy line, which is very reminiscent of the Dallas line from the Super Bowl seasons of the 90s.

	RUSH DEFENSE
CHRIS CANTY	RDE	B-
JAY RATLIFF	NT	C
MARCUS SPEARS	LDE	B
DEMARCUS WARE	ROLB	A
AKIN AYODELE	RILB	B
BRADIE JAMES	LILB	B+
ANTHONY SPENCER	LOLB	C+

The defensive line for the Cowboys can stuff some holes, but without great linebacking play, the front three would be in serious trouble. The status of Laurence Maroney remains unknown, but given Sammy Morris’ success over the past two games, the Cowboys will definitely be tested to try and contain the running game. The linebackers are excellent, and it of course includes DeMarcus Ware, who is one of the fastest and most versatile linebackers in the league. Ware will line up both at the OLB spot and also on the outside of the D-Line. The Patriots will have their hands full trying to stop Ware from getting into the backfield and stopping a play behind the line.

	PASS DEFENSE
NATHAN JONES	LCB	D+
ROY WILLIAMS	SS	A
KEN HAMLIN	FS	B
TERRANCE NEWMAN	RCB	A-

This is where the Cowboys could be in trouble. Despite the fact that they obviously have talent in their secondary, they simply haven’t gone up against anything like New England’s pass offense, and that will continue to be a theme when the Patriots take on a new opponent each week. Hamlin is an upgrade from last year, and Roy Williams is one of the better safeties in the league, but both are prone to bite on play fakes, and both tend to go overboard to make the big hit or big play. This leaves them incredibly vulnerable, especially when they guess wrong, as usually, it becomes a big play for the offense. Terrance Newman will play in this game, and they needed him badly to take on either Randy Moss or Donte’ Stallworth on the sideline. However, the Anthony Henry injury will be a killer. Look for Brady and Co. to target Jones all game long.


Advantages:

When New England Has The Ball:

	NE OFFENSE	DAL DEFENSE	ADV.
RUN YARDS/GAME	155.0 (3RD)	80.6 (7TH)	PUSH
YARDS/CARRY	4.5 (10TH)	3.6 (4TH)	DAL
RUSHING FIRST DOWNS	53 (1ST)	21 (7TH)	NE
RUSHING FUMBLES	2 (14TH)	3 (11TH)	PUSH
PASS YARDS/GAME	272.8 (4TH)	204.8 (12TH)	NE
COMPLETION %	74.1% (1ST)	58.4% (6TH)	NE
PASSING FIRST DOWNS	68 (5TH)	60 (26TH)	NE
QB RATING	128.7 (1ST)	64.8 (3RD)	PUSH
INTERCEPTIONS	2 (5TH)	10 (1ST)	PUSH
SACKS	3 (2ND)	12 (12TH)	NE

Advantage: New England

When Dallas Has The Ball:

	DAL OFFENSE	NE DEFENSE	ADV.
RUN YARDS/GAME	137.2 (7TH)	74.2 (5TH)	PUSH
YARDS/CARRY	4.7 (7TH)	3.6 (5TH)	PUSH
RUSHING FIRST DOWNS	32 (12TH)	23 (10TH)	PUSH
RUSHING FUMBLES	2 (14TH)	0 (30TH)	DAL
PASS YARDS/GAME	292.4 (2ND)	177.2 (6TH)	PUSH
COMPLETION %	59.1 (23RD)	58.8 (7TH)	NE
PASSING FIRST DOWNS	76 (1ST)	55 (20TH)	DAL
QB RATING	93.9 (8TH)	70.9 (6TH)	PUSH
INTERCEPTIONS	8 (27TH)	8 (5TH)	NE
SACKS	6 (8TH)	14 (8TH)	PUSH

Advantage: New England (slightly)

Matchup Of The Game: DeMarcus Ware vs. Matt Light
For the Cowboys to remain undefeated and win this game, they are going to have to get pressure on both the running game and Tom Brady. DeMarcus Ware is one of the most electrifying defensive players you will see, and is very destructive to an offense’s game plan. When Ware is speed-rushing from the outside, it will be Matt Light’s responsibility to at least slow Ware down to give the running backs an opportunity to get out of the backfield, and give Brady time to either get rid of the ball, or elude the pressure that the defense will be bringing. If Ware records some sacks and tackles for losses in the early going, the crowd will feed off of that, and it will put the Pats on the ropes early, which is not a good position for a team that has only been losing for a few minutes this year.

Key Injuries:

New England:

• Laurence Maroney: Questionable (groin)
• Randall Gay: Questionable (thigh)
• Donte’ Stallworth: Questionable (knee)
• Adalius Thomas: Limited in practice (ankle)
• Asante Samuel: Limited in practice (foot)

Dallas:

• Terry Glenn: Out (Knee)
• Anthony Henry: Out (Ankle)
• Courtney Brown: Out (Biceps)
• Keith Davis: Questionable (Shoulder)
• Kevin Burnett: Limited in practice (Thigh)

New England Keys To Victory:
1. Attack The Dallas Secondary: With Henry out, Dallas is just going to have to try and limit the amount of catches made by New England wide receivers. With the five-headed receiving monster, it will be tough for the Cowboys to keep tabs on all of them. While they will likely initially double Randy Moss, Brady will be looking for Stallworth, Welker, and Watson first to set up Moss on later drives. One thing is for certain: When all is said and done, Randy Moss will leave his mark on this game.

2. Stop The Run Early: If the Pats allow Barber and Jones to get going, it could be a long day for the New England D. It will be tough to get through the line to make plays in the backfield, so the linebackers are really going to have to step up and make tackles to limit the amount of yardage these guys can get. The Pats are the best in the league at stopping teams on third down, so putting Dallas in third-and-medium-to-long yardage situations will be critical to slow this high-powered offense down.

3. An Effective Offensive Line: This unit is probably the most unheralded bunch in the NFL. Brady has been sacked twice all year. Only giving up two sacks in five games is a phenomenal feat, and these guys are a big reason why the Pats have put up 30+ points in every game this year. They will have their hands full when Wade Phillips starts using different blitz schemes to get to Brady behind the line. It will be a big challenge for the line, but given their past, it is a challenge they will likely welcome. If Brady puts up the kind of stats against Dallas that he has in his first five games, this line should shoot right to the top in terms of the best in the league.

Dallas Keys To Victory:
1. Not Asking Tony Romo To Do Too Much: Romo, for the most part, is a fairly good decision maker, but if pressure is applied to him, or Dallas is down by a big deficit, all bets are off. Romo has got to stay away from trying to do more than he has to. What he needs to do is find T.O. in single coverage, or find a mismatch on Jason Witten, and exploit that. If Owens is being doubled, why take a chance against one of the better secondaries in the league? If Romo throws more than two interceptions, the Cowboys are going to lose this game.

2. Establish The Run Early And Often: To cut down on the amount of mistakes Romo can make, Dallas needs to use their talented offensive line to create holes for their two-back system to rack up yards. Once a running game is established, you will notice the safeties begin to start cheating in in an attempt to read the play. This is when play action is at its most effective point. Now, with the safeties off-balance, the deep ball can be instituted, and Owens will likely be in man-to-man coverage, which does not favor the Patriots no matter who is covering him.

3. Special Teams: Without Nick Folk’s heroics last week, this game would have much less significance than it has right now. Folk showed that he is deadly accurate, and if this game does become close, he could be called upon to settle the game, and if last week was any indication, he certainly can do the job. Also, kickoff and punt coverage will be a big part in limiting the amount of good field position the Pats start off with. The Cowboys got burned on a Terrance McGee kickoff return for a TD, and if they give Ellis Hobbs or Wes Welker time and space to create, it could be déjà vu all over again.

Game Time: 4:15 (CBS), Texas Stadium, Dallas, TX

This should be a fun weekend. I hope everyone has a safe one and a great one. Take care. Peace.

~Mell-o

NFL Week 6/College Week 7 Predictions

"But not me baby
I got you to save me."

Ok, before I get into this, I just want to say how hilarious it is that people make picks, then say it's for "entertainment purposes only." Ok, well, here's my picks...lose money on them if you want to.

College:
USC vs. UNC: Well, it is a trap game, and there's also a lot of things going on between Spurrier and UNC. The last time Spurrier was there, it was when he was helping Duke celebrate the ACC Championship, beating the Tar Heels 41-0 back in 1989. So, there's some revenge factor going on there, and it's obvious that Vegas has gone along with it, as I was way off as far as what the spread on this game would be. There's no way for me not to be biased when looking at this game, so I'll at least try and throw some objective stuff in here. The Cocks are great at stopping the pass, as they proved last week against a Heisman candidate (who is now a then-Heisman candidate), and they have one of the best all-around defenses in the country (you heard me), so while UNC played a great game last week, USC had two more days to prepare for them, and the Duke/UNC thing will play a factor. I'm picking the Cocks (W, -7).

...actually that was incredibly nonobjective and biased...whoops...

Rutgers vs. Syracuse: So I guess the formula is to first lose a critical game that kills any shot of getting to a BCS game, then goi up to Syracuse, and kick the crap out of them...I like it. Thanks for the blueprint West "by God" Virginia. Rutgers (W, -17) takes out its frustrations on the Orange(men).

Virginia Tech vs. Duke: Hey, more power to Duke if they can pull this one off. I have to say, if the Hokies don't cover here, this whole national title trip for BC may not be so far-fetched...interesting. In any event, I'll take VA Tech (W, -14).

Oklahoma St. vs. Nebraska: There has to be a catch here, because this spread is about seven points off I'd say. In any event, this is a somewhat intriguing matchup, with two teams who do one thing exceptionally well, and also, have defenses that cannot stop what the other team is good at. So, with that being said, I'm going against Okie St. purely because Lincoln is a tough place to play, and the Cowboys are 0-3 on the road. Plus...why would I ever pick any team named the Cowboys this week? I'll take the Huskers (W, -4).

By the way, if you haven't seen the Okie St. coach flip out, here you go...man I can't wait to get berated by someone on a professional basis.

Illinois vs. Iowa: Ok why am I picking the Big 10...why? I did pretty well last week, and now I'm falling back into the old trap. Anyway, I can't resist it anymore. Illinois definitely has a shot at making a big bowl game, and now that they dispatched Wisconsin, they find themselves in a trap game against the Hawkeyes. Iowa has won the last four meetings, including the last two in Des Moines ATS. Here's the thing, umm...Illinois was really bad those years, and this year they're really good. I also have a thing about picking a team that is 215th in points. I'll take the Illini (W, -4).

TCU vs. Stanford: Captain Comeback is back on the front pages. So much so that they ran a yearbook from the '95 Colts on the Deuce the other day. So, Stanford obviously will be in let-down mode...but what can you expect after beating the #2 team in the country on the road? So, hey, TCU's winless on the road, and they're favored...why not huh? Stanford (W, +6).

Oregon St. vs. California: So my thinking is that because of what happened last week, the oddsmakers are maybe suggesting that it could happen to a #2 Pac-10 team again. To Oregon St.'s credit, they have the #2 rush defense in the country. However, given the fact that Cali now determines their own destiny in terms of playing for a national title, every game is that much more important. Here's the thing though: For whatever reason, O-State plays Cali well at Berkeley. So, I'm going to split the difference. I'll take California to win (W) and Oregon St. to cover (+15).

Air Force vs. Colorado St.: Colorado St. is really, really bad, although a winless team is sometimes more dangerous than an undefeated team (I'm going to wait and let that one just fly into space and hope that it hits some relevance along the way...). The team definitely hit right around rock bottom last week, losing to San Diego St. after being favored by 13. So, they have nowhere to go but up right?....right? Colorado St. (W, -3).

UConn vs. Virginia: The Huskies look to remain undefeated as they take on the Wahoos. UVA has also been impressive this season, winning their last five games. They do share two common opponents: Duke and Pitt. UVA beat the bag out of them at home, and UConn beat the bag out of them on the road...so there's really not a lot there. UConn's defense has been incredible this year, and their offense is averaging 37 points a game. I know that there will be a few undefeateds to go down this weekend, I'm just hoping the Huskies can survive. UConn (W, +4)

Wisconsin vs. Penn St.: Well when you break it all down, there's not really too much to explain here. When Penn St. plays Wisconsin at home, they win, and when they don't...well you get the picture. Wisconsin has lost their last three ATS, and Penn St. is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home. I also like the fact that I have to give less than a TD. So, I'll take Penn St. (W, -6).

Last Week: SU: 7-3, ATS: 7-3
Season: SU: 30-16, ATS: 24-19-3

NFL
New England vs. Dallas: The preview will be up shortly (I hope). Ehhh...ok, I guess I'll take the Pats (W, -6). Big twist of the arm there.

Cincinnati vs. Kansas City: Cincy is coming off a bye, and KC, who I stupidly picked last week (yes I'm still not over it) got run by Jacksonville (by the way, taking the over was a bad move as well...sorry). Despite the fact that they let me down last week, I'm going to go with KC (W, +3) again.

Houston vs. Jacksonville: Houston is 3-0 ATS at Jacksonville in the last three years. Both teams are coming off of wins last week. If this game is close, which I think it will be, it definitely favors the Texans, who won 13-10 at Jacksonville last year. Texans (W, +6.5).

Miami vs. Cleveland: So Miami remains winless. Wouldn't it be ironic if they went 0-16? One franchise could hold the title of having both the last undefeated and winless teams. You gotta love sports. Their starting QB is out, they seem to lose their close games in grand fashion, their defense is archaic...what more do you need? Also, what do you think the '76 Buccaneers do after the last team gets their first win? Toast King Cobras? In any event, had it not been for a freak fumble return by Randall Gay (thank you very much), the Brownies would have covered on the road. I see them fired up after last week, and scorching the 'Phins at home. Browns (W, -4).

Minnesota vs. Chicago: So Chicago did a 180 after losing their game against Detroit, handing Green Bay its first loss, while Minnesota is coming off a bye after losing three straight. Both teams are horrendous ATS (MIN 1-3, CHI 1-4), so really, you have to see where these teams are at right now. Brian Griese looked good against Green Bay, and Tavaris Jackson will come back and replace Kelly Holcomb, who is actually a better quarterback. Come to think of it, besides Green Bay, what a wacky division this has been for quarterbacks in the last two or three years. It seems like every backup quarterback is better than the starter, but for some reason, he doesn't get the start until either the guy in front of him goes out with an injury, or becomes so awful that fans were threatening to disown the team left and right if they didn't make a move. Jon Kitna was Josh McCown and Joey Harrington's backup...are you kidding me? Kelly Holcomb almost had enough to beat the Packers, but they're letting Tavaris Jackson back into the starting job because...anyone?...does anyone know? He's less talented, and with that offensive line, you really only need someone to hand off to Chester Taylor or Adrian Peterson, and then don't screw it up too much when you have to pass. Jackson screws up a lot...and he's still the starter! It boggles my mind. Oh well, welcome back Tavaris. Bears (W, -5).

Philadelphia vs. New York: So Philly is 1-3. I think they have to be the biggest disappointment in the NFL right now...even more so than San Diego because Philly at least has a coach that doesn't suck. The Jets are in Chad Pennington purgatory, where they desperately need to move on, but Pennington remarkably is coming back from injury quicker than expected, meaning he will again get the start, and not Kellen Clemens. Quick fact: Andy Reid is 8-0 coming off a bye. Also, can you remember two teams playing each other after their last game was at the same stadium? Philly's last game was two weeks ago against the Giants at the Meadowlands, and the Jets played the G-Men last week. Interesting. Also, Philly's last game was without Brian Westbrook, who now has had three weeks to nurse his ab injury. I have to go with Philly (W, -3).

St. Louis vs. Baltimore: Gus Frerotte. Ravens (W, -9.5).

Tennessee vs. Tampa Bay: The two quarterbacks who are the absolute best at what they do: Pulling wins out of their backsides. Tampa literally has no more running game. Signing Zach Crockett (fantasy alert) is great and all, but losing Caddy and Michael Pittman? How is this team going to go on after losing their running game? Plus, looking at how Indy just decimated Tampa's defense last week, there are obvious holes there. You can't go against Vince Young anymore...seriously. Plus, the Titans have won seven in a row on the road. I'll take my chances with the Titans (W, +3) on the road.

Washington vs. Green Bay: Hmmm...this could get interesting. Washington put a beating on Detroit at RFK last week, while the Pack lost its first game at home and in general after squandering a lead to the Bears. I know the Redskins' fans have some optimism about how their team may be going places...well, they're going to Green Bay, and I foresee bad things happening upon their arrival. Washington may be playing without Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El. Plus, Favre has owned the 'Skins, going 3-0, with the Pack winning those games by a combined score of 95-23. On a side note, with one more interception, Brett Favre will hold the career marks in both touchdowns and interceptions...basically becoming the Cy Young of football (Young holds the record for most career wins and losses by a pitcher). Packers (W, -3).

Carolina vs. Arizona: Ok, so I think I have Carolina pegged at this point. They need a fast track to win. Also, they need an opponent who's awful. The Cardinals will supply neither. Arizona is 4-1 against the number, and really, the Panthers need a good ass-kicking, because frankly, they have lived a charmed life on the road so far. With Leinart done for the year, 'Zona can forget about their little platooning experiment and focus back on winning games with Kurt Warner. Did I mention David Carr is going to be the starter for the rest of the year now that Jake is done for the year? Oh how good is it to be a Panther fan right now?...if there are any left. Cardinals (W, -4.5).

Oakland vs. San Diego: Now this matchup got a little more intriguing once the pieces fell into place. Oakland is coming off a bye after squishing the fish 35-17 two weeks ago. San Diego dominated Denver all game long, coming away with over 450 yards of offense and a 41-3 thumping on the road. While Oakland is definitely improving, they simply won't have a chance against the Charger offense. By the way, LT will make a pass attempt in this game. Just a random prop bet. Chargers (W, -9.5).

New Orleans vs. Seattle: The good news for the Saints is that they only lost by three last week. The bad news is that they're going to Seattle, who is likely peeved that they were shutout on the road last week. In any event, it's real simple. Unless the Seahawks self-implode, they're not going to lose this game. I like the 'Hawks (W, -7).

New York vs. Atlanta: The Giants seem to have a lot going for them besides the fact that their QB is still Eli Manning. In Atlanta, they seemed to be quick to go to Byron Leftwich to try and replace Joey Harrington. While I suggested this weeks ago, Harrington actually looked like he was improving. Then, they pull him because he's having a bad game against Tennessee in favor of Leftwich, despite the fact that he had no game action with the offense at all. If you're going to make that move, you're going to want to do it before a game, not during. I still think Petrino will tank this year to get a shot at Brian Brohm. And, oh by the way, the last time these teams played, which was last year, the Giants won 27-13 at the Georgia Dome. I like my chances betting on history and the G-Men (W, -3).

Last Week: SU: 9-5; ATS: 10-3-1
Season: SU: 51-25; ATS: 42-27-7

Pats preview will come tomorrow since it is really late and I got sidetracked by sleep, The Office, and fruit on the bottom yogurt...my mind is like a pretzel. Anyway, I'm hoping to get that preview done before tomorrow's game, and if not, I will conclude it afterwards. Take care everyone. Peace.

~Mell-o

So Much To Say

"I find, sometimes it's easy to be myself."

So, I caught a day off today, so naturally, I have so much I need to throw out.

Let's start on the diamond with the Sox, as they will look to get back to the World Series for the first time since that magical '04 season. The Indians will be their LCS opponents. In a surprise move, at least to me, the Tribe decided to sit Sabathia for Game 4 against the Yankees, instead choosing to go with Paul Byrd to pitch what was the eventual series clincher. Byrd turned out to be just good enough, pitching five and giving up two, getting the win. So, now the Indians and the Sox both have their rotations in the order that they wanted.

Game 1 tomorrow features arguably the best pitching matchup of the year with Sabathia going up against Beckett at Fenway. One of the two is definitely going to win the Cy Young. My argument is that Beckett put up similar statistics to Sabathia, and was able to reach 20 wins despite starting four less games than C.C. The argument for Sabathia is that he is simply an innings machine, leading all of baseball in innings pitched, and had four complete games. In any event, let's look at how it might play out head-to-head. Despite pitching since '01, Sabathia has only made three starts at Fenway. going 1-1 with a 2.35 ERA. In his one appearance against the Sox this year, Sabathia was outstanding, going seven, scattering five hits, and only allowing one run. Unfortunately for him, Dice-K was just that much better, tossing seven shutout innings as the Sox went on to win 1-0. Sabathia is a guy who gets his fastball way up on the radar gun, and is absolutely relentless on the strike zone. This is another example of a guy you have to play small ball with. Sure, it's not totally what the Sox are about, but this isn't the '04 Red Sox we're talking about. This team actually runs fairly well. You have two burners at the bottom of the order, and some professional hitters at the top. So, chipping away at Sabathia is critical, because rarely does he ever lose control and give up big innings. Josh Beckett...well, what can you say? You wanted an ace, you got it. I think last year, people saw a glimmer of what this guy could actually do. Also, after the '03 Series, you knew the guy had it in him. So, really, kudos to the Sox on signing him to a three-year, $30 million contract, especially in this market. Ted Lilly got $9 million a year, so an extra million to get a guy who has the potential to keep putting up 20-win seasons seems like a fairly good proposition. Although Beckett has had a stellar career, he has been less than stellar going up against Cleveland. In four starts, Beck has gone 1-3 with a 6.57 ERA. However, this may be misleading considering that last year, he was 0-2 with a 13.97 ERA. This year, he is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA. So, quite the turnaround in a year. Beckett was also short-changed in one of his outings this year, going eight and giving up one run on four hits. Again, the opposing pitcher (Fausto Carmona) was just that much better. The O/U on this game is 8.5...if gambling were in fact legal, I am begging you to go out and bet the under. If this game goes over four, I will be shocked. This game is all about who can get to two the fastest. The first team to get to two runs will have about a 90/10 chance of winning, and the only reason it's 10% to lose is because if the Tribe are able to get those two runs, they will be relying on Joe Borowski to close. Borowski has had an absolute roller-coaster season. Despite having 45 saves, he had a 5 ERA, and although he did record a perfect ninth and a save in his only appearance against the Sox this year, he is still inconsistent as anything, so there's a chance the Sox can break him if he gets into the game. As far as the other Indian relievers...good luck. The same really goes with the Sox' relievers. If a team gets a lead in a game, it will be hard for the other team to come back.

The running storyline for Cleveland has to be the re-emergence of Kenny Lofton. He received standing ovations every game at Jacobs Field, and had a monster series against the Yankees, hitting .375 (despite going 0-5 in Game 4), and scoring the winning run in Game 2. This scares me. I hate playing against the sentimental story because it's incredibly hard to root against a guy like Lofton, who has bounced around baseball for years after leaving Cleveland (for those of you scoring at home, that would be the White Sox, Giants, Pirates, Cubs, Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers, and Rangers). I've always been a huge fan of Lofton because he plays such a great center field, and in his absolute prime, around the mid-90s he was arguably the best base-stealer in baseball. He was the catalyst of all those great Indian teams that went to the playoffs in those years. So, with Lofton on this team, they have their "hero." Remember, the Sox had the "idiots," the bloody sock, the guy out-casted to the bullpen only to win all three clinching games, and of course, Big Papi. Now, look at this year's team...do we have a hero? I'll go on record and say this: Manny Ramirez has got to be the guy to get the Sox moving in this series. They still have Papi, they have Lowell, they have the little engine that could in Pedroia, but this team will sink or swim on Ramirez's bat. Manny is the one guy who has yet to be the hero on this team, that is until the LDS against the Halos in Game 2. Manny has been on this team almost as long as anyone in this lineup, and while his numbers have been phenomenal, I really think that he needs to step it up against his former team. They will be booing him relentlessly as they always do. He did have a good year playing at Jacobs this year, going 7-for-14, hitting two homers and driving in six. The good news is that Sabathia and Carmona will be pitching on the road, meaning you will see Westbrook and Byrd at Jacobs for Games 3 and 4. If Cleveland is going to win those games, it will be because they will out-bat the Sox...it will not be due to their pitching. There's just so much karma going on against the Sox, with Lofton, Carmona, who got absolutely decimated last year, and now is one of the best starters in the game, the long drought in between championships (last one was in 1940), the former Sox catcher (Eric Wedge), who will likely be manager of the year, returns to face his former team...I guess all I'm saying is that don't expect this series to be a cake-walk like the Angels series was. I'll leave you with this, the last time the Sox and Indians played each other in the post-season, Pedro turned in the best post-season pitching performance I, and probably a lot of people, have ever seen, and I know I keep referencing this a bunch, but when you see true greatness, you can't help but to start bumbling on like a total idiot. In any event, I can't wait until this series gets off and running.

Quick Picks:

ALCS: Boston in 5
NLCS: Arizona in 6

And then, there's the Yankees. In 50 years, could this be the point in time you could pinpoint the official death of the Yankee dynasty? First, Joe Torre, unless some incredible set of circumstances come about, will be axed. Now, it seems like if Torre goes, so will Mariano Rivera. Then, Jorge Posada is a free agent...the wheels seem to be falling off the wagon. You lose those three guys, and only Jeter would be left as the lone "Yankee that actually won something" left on the team. I'll say this: If Brian Cashman makes it through another off-season, he will officially become the "teflon GM." This guy has done almost everything in his power to get himself fired, figuring he can dump money on problems, and then they will go away. He should have been fired three years ago after the Yankees dropped four straight to the good guys and now, have lost three straight division series. Maybe it's because I know I could do better, and that I'm secretly jealous that this guy gets paid $3 million a year to play fantasy baseball, and I get nothing, but I do really despise this guy...even though he's the one behind the tanking of the Yankees this decade.

Once again, A-Rod managed to massacre his playoff stats. How can he possibly show his face in the Bronx next year? I guess the only good thing is that most of the Yankee fans are so short-sighted that they'll probably forget about all of this once he hits a few dingers. Please, Chicago, pay him $300 million. This way, you can get even closer to the World Series, get your collective hopes up, and then wallow in more misery than you even thought was possible...then, after ten years of A-Rod, hopefully, the Cubbies will win the whole thing, because at that point, they'll probably make the playoffs every year, lose in some outrageous fashion, and then be so passionate and embittered by the whole thing that when they finally do win, it will be almost relieving...

That's what baseball fans need to go through to get their stripes.

This is just the best...it just is...this is something that will never get old.

(By the way, Suzyn Waldman tried to defend herself in Newsday...ok, calling people "sexist" because they are making fun of you crying is totally ridiculous. Trust me, if a guy did that, he would never, and I mean never hear the end of it. The reason everyone is on you is because you are so biased towards the Yankees that it makes people sick. Sure, I've cried about the Red Sox...but I'm not an announcer for them. I'm a fan. As someone who reports the game, you cannot be so wrapped up in emotion that it ruins the coverage. Joe Castiglione did the call on the final play of the '03 and '04 seasons for the Sox. Sure, he had a little more hop to his voice when they won, but it's not as though he was screaming and going crazy. No, he simply reported what had happened, and that was it. That's the sign of a professional. Listen to Erin Andrews on Sports Guy's podcast when she talks about playing it straight even though she's a die-hard Sox fan. That's a professional. If the Yankees won the World Series, she would have been going ballistic and nuts, but she's upset because they didn't, and now, Torre might leave. I'm not saying that I would be any good, but I know, if given the chance, I would be a professional...like what I'm doing right now isn't professional. What I do is give my honest opinion about how I think things are playing out, and since it's a forum, I have the right to be biased towards something, just as people equally have the right to dog me if they don't like what I'm saying. So, please spare me the indecency of having to here this woman who's crying (again) because people are taking shots at you. If you didn't want this, you shouldn't have gone ape when Clemens decided to come back...

A lot of good that did you by the way.)

The Celts played a pre-season game on ESPN on Tuesday, and I have to say that all of those people who are picking us to make a serious run at a title this year may have something. Sure, the games don't count, but just the presence of this team on the court literally had the Timberwolves shaking (by the way, if your name isn't Marko Jaric or Rashad McCants, there's a strong chance that if you play for the T-Wolves, you played with the Celtics in the last five years). I know that Doc thought it was offensive that the "Big Three" was being thrown out to describe Garnett, Allen, and Pierce because it is disrespectful to Bird, Parish, and McHale, but honestly, what else can you call them? Garnett is the big man Celtic fans have been craving since The Chief left in '94. Dude, we've had Eric Montrose, Vitaly Potapenko, Chris Mihm, and Tony Battie to try and fill the role...let's just say this was something that was a long time coming. The ball movement was incredible, especially on a few choice plays which SportsCenter was nice enough to break down that night so I could see it in slow-mo and with nice video graphics. I am always excited before a Celtics season. I'm the same way with every team I pull for. Why? Because it's a new season. You can say all you want to about the team, the players, the coaches, the ownership...the team starts at 0-0, just like everyone else. Sure, the Bruins and the Celtics have hit the skids over the past few years, but am I supposed to just throw it all away because the team is losing? In this present time, if someone is not doing their job, they are booted out, and someone else is brought in to do the job. Sure, Doc Rivers will likely look amazingly good this year because he has a freakish amount of polished talent compared to the raw athletes he had since his tenure began. Danny Ainge knew that, despite his brain wave theory and his blueprint for the future, he was going to get canned if he didn't do anything drastic. Again, this is the beauty of sticking with a team through thick and thin. When that team comes out smelling roses and looking as dominant as anyone in the league, it's so much sweeter when you've had to trail through the muck and the feeling of being alone in the world. This is basically where I'm at with the Bruins right now. Hey, all of a sudden, people are talking about the Celtics, like the team was started as soon as they traded for Garnett. Anyway, back to the team itself. I think that the C's have found a pretty nice formula for success. Here's how I think the Celtics can somehow will they're way back to the Finals this year...I'll call it "The Blueprint For Success In The NBA."

1. At Least Two Superstars. They have three.
2. A Selfless Point Guard. Look, when they got Rajon Rondo, I was a little skeptical, and I have to say the reason for that is because I'm a Gamecock, and the guy didn't really impress me when he played us. Now that I've seen how he's humbled himself when he got into the league, I am really starting to like the guy. He wants to get everyone involved...so much so that he almost over-did it a few times last year when he was coming off the bench for Delonte. If you look through time, there hasn't been a giant, superstar point guard to win a championship since Isaiah Thomas. B.J. Armstrong, Sam Cassell, Derek Fisher, Jason Williams, and even Tony Parker aren't really "superstars" of the league. Simply put, they knew their roles. They knew that, no, they were not the most talented players on their team, but if the opportunity arose where they would have to step up and make a play happen, they did. However, their motive was to get the stars involved in a play so they, in turn, could get the rest of their team involved. Rondo definitely has that going for him, and has looked great so far.
3. Lights Out Shooting. Ok, it's already a fact that Paul Pierce and Ray Allen are two of the best pure shooters in the game today. Pierce had to be because basically, he's been the lone shooting threat on the Celtics for the last four years. Ray Allen has been a sharpshooter since his days at UConn. With Pierce's ability to drive through the lane, it stands to reason that Allen will get a lot of open looks this season. Plus, add guys like Eddie House and Tony Allen coming off the bench, and you're looking at a team that has the ability to make threes to put a game away, or to make up a deficit.
4. The Unpolished Diamond. Kendrick Perkins received a lot of fanfare when he was drafted, but then fell out of favor with the team and a lot of people (including myself) when he got out of shape and his fire kind of died out. Now that the path to the starting lineup has been cleared for him, Perk has undergone a noticeable change in both his physical appearance, and perhaps more importantly, his attitude. Plus, when you bring in a guy like Garnett, you know that they will be bouncing ideas off of each other, and it will only help Perk's game down the line. It feels like he's been with this team forever, but he's only 22 years old! To say he has time to grow is an understatement. I expect Kendrick to have a big year, not so much on paper, but on the overall impact on the offense and defense in the paint.'
5. A Foreign Guy No One Wants To Mess With. I don't know if you've seen Esteban Batista yet, but man, this guy demands attention. 6'10, 270 pounds...he could almost be like the "enforcer" of the Celtics. If you screw with Garnett, they'll bring in Batista to bodyslam you or something.
6. Hungry Players. Pierce, Allen, and Garnett are amongst the top seven for career scoring without an NBA Finals appearance. This experiment was tried in LA with Malone and Payton, but the ego clash was too big for any group of talent to overcome. This team doesn't seem to have any real "bad seeds" on it. You know, guys who live to stir the pot. Garnett bit his tongue in Minnesota while the team self-destructed under McHale (it all comes full-circle). Allen's career was left to die in the great Northwest as the Sonics seemingly didn't care about their existing players, but rather, they were more concerned about making the team more marketable for their move to Oklahoma or Kansas City. And with Pierce finally getting the support he's lacked since he played with 'Toine, all three are hungry to win a ring. Plus, the guys who make up this current roster have a combined one championship ring (James Posey with the Heat), and almost every one of them have not made it to the Finals. You have a lot of passion on this team, even a rookie like Glen "Big Baby" Davis is going to add a huge amount to the fire this team will play with.

So, given those six points, I'm officially buying into the "Celtics could be big this season" hype. I mean I wanted to be modest, but I could only hold out for so long after the C's made move after move in an almost blitzkrieg-like fashion to go from one of the worst to one of the best. In getting back to Glen Davis, I do want to say this: Keep an eye out for what happens with him and Jeff Green this year. Green would have come to Boston, but was traded to Seattle for Ray Allen. In that deal, the Celts received the pick to acquire Davis. I guarantee that Davis will have more of an impact on this team than Jeff Green will on Seattle, even though Davis is coming off the bench. This guy is such a lightning rod of energy that if the team needs a pick-me-up, which may be rare this season, this is the perfect guy to bring in to spark the team. I saw what kind of player he was at LSU, and I know that he can have a similar impact coming off the bench in the NBA.

Finally, I have to mention "The Chase" because...well...I haven't mentioned it, mainly due to the fact that Denny started off in 8th despite being third in the points going into the last ten. Also, the race is in Concord at Lowe's this week, so it's probably the best reason to start learning the backroads that I can possibly think of. In any event, ESPN was running a headline of "Can Jeff Gordon be caught?" Does anyone realize that Jimmie Johnson is nine points behind him with six races to go!!! Of course he can be caught. Oh by the way, here comes Clint Bowyer, driving the car with the best paint, best sponsor, and seems to finish first or second every other week. So Jeff Gordon, who clearly has been the best driver all year long, is definitely not out of the woods yet...in fact, he only just got the lead back by winning at Talladega, so isn't it just one enormous aberration to ordain Gordon as the king already? There is a chance he could get a DNF, which would throw him completely off track. In terms of what I expect from Denny is his final six races driving a Chevy (switching to Ford next year...is there such thing as a junior slump, because I think Denny may have that going on next season), I expect him to do well at Martinsville, where he got his one pole this year and finished third. He also had a top 10 at Texas and started and finished third at Phoenix...I'm just dreading having to go to Ford next year. This is not going to go well for Denny. I just think that switching him just as he's getting used to Chevy's set-up is not going to be a smooth transition. The same thing applies for Kyle Busch, who also is joining Gibbs Racing, taking over the departed J.J. Yeley. They have a great team, but the switch to Ford could not have been worse, especially given the fact that Hendrick is going to drive Chevies with Gordon, Johnson, and Earnhardt, Jr. I'm predicting ugliness...I don't know, maybe that's me. I'm a worrier...that's why my friends call me whiskers.

I have to save football for a totally different entry. Look for the picks in one, and the preview from Big D, which will run on Patriots Insider, to be in the other. So, I have more work to do, so let me get to that. For now, enjoy, and I'll be back in a little bit. Peace.

~Mell-o

The Los Angeles Anaheim Orange County...Whatever They're Called, They're Out

"I thought the only lonely place was on the moon."

So the Sox will return to Boston no doubt energized by their total beatdown of the Halos in three games. Sunday's game was dramatic for awhile, but once again, the Sox were able to get to the Angel bullpen, going for seven in the seventh, and effectively ending any chance the Angels had of winning the game and staying in the series (there was even an Eric Gagne sighting, so you know the game was well in hand). The Sox were dominant in Games 1 and 3, carried by tremendous starting pitching performances from Beckett and Schilling. Schilling was rolling today, spreading six hits over seven, with only one of those being of the extra-base variety. Schill was masterful in blending his breaking pitches with his fastball, which he was able to get up to 92-93 on the gun at times. Needing 100 pitches in his outing, Schill threw 76 strikes, which is pretty much right at the spot you want to be if you're a starting pitcher. Throwing about 75% strikes seems to be an unspoken goal for most starters, and Schill accomplished that today.

The offense, while slow at times, definitely shined when they absolutely needed to. Even J.D. Drew somehow got a clutch hit in Game 2, hitting a two-run single in a low-scoring game. However, as said all along, this team goes where its starting pitching goes. Another key was teeing off on the Angel bullpen, who had struggled going into the postseason. This was especially true with Scot Shields, who was considered to be their main set-up guy all year before September, where he seemingly fell apart. The bash brothers also made a huge impact on the series, and without their help, who knows if this series is still going on. Ortiz and Ramirez went back-to-back today, while Ortiz hit an absolute bomb in Game 1 to give the Sox and Beckett some breathing room, and of course, Ramirez with the game-winner in Game 2 (throw in a "the ball hasn't landed yet" line if you need to). These two both experienced a drop in their power numbers from last year, but hey, if they keep this kind of hitting going in the ALCS, who really cares what they did in the regular season?

So now, we wait to see who the Sox will get at Fenway on Friday. Again, the hope is that the Tribe and the Yanks just beat the hell out of each other in five games, and then the winner comes into Boston bruised and battered...that would be ideal. Who would I like to see? Well, personally, it doesn't really matter to me. Both teams present interesting matchups for the Sox. If the Tribe win, they are going to start the series with one of their big guns having to sit until probably Game 3 because they were unable to win on Sunday against the Yanks. So, if Cleveland wins Game 4, you're looking at Carmona and Westbrook starting Games 1 and 2 at Fenway, with Sabathia having to wait until the series shifts to Jacobs Field. Now with the Yankees, you have the lineup that can turn it on at any time, and a bullpen that seems to get stronger the more people criticize them. Do they scare me? A little, but the thing that scares me more than anything is that the only team in the major leagues that can beat the Sox is the Sox. No other team brings what the Sox bring to the table, but, given everything that has happened with the Yankees in the past few games the Sox played them, they have squandered wins due to a lack of clutch hitting, bad coaching decisions, and an imploding bullpen. So, with four days to rest, it would seem like the Sox will use the same rotation in the ALCS that they did in the division series, with either Wake or Lester starting Game 4. Personally, I would like to see Lester go regardless of who they play. Most of the best hitters on both teams are lefty, and I know Wake is terrible against the Yanks as well, so I want to see Lester start. Will Tito (Francona) listen? That I'm not so sure about. In any event, it all starts Friday, and you can't quite worry about Game 4 just yet. The focus needs to be on Friday and nothing else. For now, hopefully we'll see two extra inning games with both teams wear out their 'pens before Game 1.

Another wild week of college football has come and gone, and a lot of history is now in the books. Stanford and Illinois played spoilers, and benefited the two teams I have the most interest in the world in, BC and USC. The Stanford win was an absolute shock. I saw the first half before going home, and was convinced that the Trojans were just toying with Stanford and would come out firing in the second half. Well, that never happened. So now, BC all of a sudden finds itself #4 in the country, able to leap-frog South Florida after they turned in a very unimpressive game against FAU (predicted by this guy). This matches the highest rank this team has ever been, having last been #4 in the '84 season when Flutie won the Heisman. Speaking of Heisman, Matt Ryan again had an impressive performance against Bowling Green, and after Andre Woodson bowed out of the race on Thursday, Ryan likely is in the top two or three in the Heisman race right now. Again, looking in hindsight, BC has been exceptionally fortunate to play some overrated teams and real bad teams, and were also fortunate to survive the ZooMass test. I'm still skeptical about this team. Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for them, but at the same time, I just feel like if they are given a challenge, they may not be able to handle it. Next week, the Eagles go up to South Bend in a battle of catholic supremacy, which, at the beginning of the year, looked like it would be a big-time matchup. Now, not so much. However, you have to respect the revenge factor that the Irish could have as a program going into this game. What kind of irony would it be if the Irish bumped off BC? Remember 1993? ND went into the game the #1 team in the country, and David Gordon hit a game-winner, capping off a three TD rally to knock of Notre Dame in one of the wildest games of all-time. Now, with BC at its peak, and in search of a national title of their own, Notre Dame now gets to play the hunter. Very interesting.

USC was able to bank their Kentucky win into a #7 ranking, the highest since '84 when they were ranked seventh as well. Behind the arm of Chris Smelley and a suffocating pass defense, the Cocks too find themselves on the brink of doing something huge for this program. However, the tough part of the schedule still looms, with the "Orange Crush" (at Tennessee, Florida, Clemson) and a trip to Arkansas coming up for USC. It's going to be a heck of a ride to the finish, and if they can somehow survive all of those challenges, they will play for the SEC Championship game, as the Cocks now control their own destiny. The game this week against UNC has been publicized for months and months, with both sides taking shots at one another. Despite USC having the more talented team on paper, UNC is not a team to take lightly...just ask the U, who were favored by a TD, and went down Saturday at Chapel Hill. The lines haven't come out yet, but given the events of what happened on Thursday and Saturday, I expect USC to be favored by about 15. This is a major test for (South) Carolina. Going on the road in a hostile environment against an upstart team who is hungry to turn their fortunes around. It's totally bizarre how the BC and USC games are strikingly similar in that the two home teams are coming off big wins and play a re-hatched rivalry game against teams who could very well wind up playing for a BCS bowl bid.

Overall, I have to say I was pretty happy with how I did. There were three "what was I thinking games" in the form of Louisville/Utah, Jacksonville/KC, and GB/Chicago when I look at it and say those three magical words: Stupid, stupid, stupid. In any event, my numbers will go up, so I'm pleased.

Now, as it is my civic duty that has been bestowed on me by the good people of Patriots Insider, I will now recap the Cleveland/Pats game in great detail...much to my absolute pleasure.

Pats Withstand Late Cleveland Push To Remain Unbeaten

"His brain has not only been washed, as they say...It has been dry cleaned." ~The Manchurian Candidate

Cleveland came closer than any team has this season to knocking off the Patriots...and they still got beat by three scores.

A late Randall Gay fumble return for a touchdown got the Pats over the 30-point mark for the fifth straight game, a new team record, as New England dispatched a hungry Cleveland team 34-17 on Sunday. As Gay crossed the goal line, and Stephen Gostkowski added the extra point, the Patriots were once again able to win by 17 or more points, which has only been done four times in NFL history, with the last occurrence happening with the '99 St. Louis Rams.

"It’s good to win." coach Bill Belichick stated following the game on Sunday. "It’s always good to win and be 5-0. I don’t think that was either team’s best game out there today, but in the end we were able to make a few more plays."

Despite being without the services of Laurence Maroney for the second straight week, Sammy Morris was once again able to carry the running game in Maroney's absence, rushing for 102 yards, the second consecutive week he cracked the century mark. This marks the first time since '95 that the Patriots have gone three weeks in a row with a 100-yard rusher. Despite serving as a backup for the first three games, and only starting the last two, Morris currently ranks 12th in the league with 370 yards for the season. As a team, New England ran for 146 yards, and moved up to third in the league with a 155 yards/game average for the season.

Tom Brady once again proved to be too much for the opposition, going 22-for-38 for 265 yards. Brady also threw three touchdown passes with no interceptions. The three touchdown passes for Brady ties an NFL record with five games in a row with three or more passing touchdowns. His 16 touchdowns for the season are by far the most in the league, leading Brady's counterpart from Sunday, Derek Anderson, who comes into Monday in second, by five.

What gets lost in Brady's great play is the fact that the offensive line has given him protection and time to throw all year long. The Browns were unable to get to Brady on Sunday, unable to record a sack. Brady has only been sacked three times all season, which is tied with Peyton Manning for the least amount for quarterbacks starting all of their team's games.

"The protection was great all day." Brady remarked in his post-game press conference. "We had no sacks and not a whole lot of pressure. It was another good performance – great performance – by the offensive line."

Donte' Stallworth recorded his first touchdown as a Patriot late in the first quarter. Brady found him after being able to stand in the pocket and dissect the defense, stepped up, and found Stallworth crossing over the middle. Stallworth made a move down the left sideline, and found the end zone on the 34-yard reception. While Stallworth was a heralded off-season acquisition for the Pats, he came into the game with the Browns only having eight catches on the year. Against Cleveland, while most of the attention was being paid to Randy Moss and Wes Welker, Stallworth was able to capitalize on the defense not accounting for him, catching four passes for 65 yards.

"You just go out and play and wait on your opportunity." Stallworth said. "Today I got a little more opportunity because they were trying to take Randy out of the game. When that happens, they leave someone in single coverage [and] either me or Wes [are] able to make some plays. When that happens, the other guy has to stand up and make the plays."

Benjamin Watson also made a huge contribution in the passing game, catching six passes for 107 yards and two touchdowns, both career highs. This marks the fifth consecutive week a Patriot had 100 yards receiving, with Moss hitting the mark in the first four games. This is the first time in Patriots history that the team has had five in a row, surpassing the four that was recorded back in 1975.

"It’s great having the opportunity." Watson commented following his career day. "That’s why you always have to be ready. You never know when your time is going to come to help out this team."

The defense had arguably its worst game, and by most standards, it still wasn't all that bad. Derek Anderson was able to throw for 287 yards and two scores, but also tossed three picks. The first two, which wound up in the hands of Junior Seau and Asante Samuel respectfully, were off of tipped balls, and the last interception, which would be Seau's second of the game, came when Mike Vrabel hit Anderson's arm while he was attempting to throw a short pass to Jason Wright.

The defensive play of the game was turned in by the aforementioned Randall Gay. With the score at 27-17, Cleveland started from deep in their own territory with just 52 seconds remaining in the game, trying to just put some points on the board, as the game was basically over at that stage. Anderson completed the first play of the drive, hitting Kellen Winslow, Jr. over the middle. Gay was then able to track Winslow down and strip the ball away from him just as Winslow's second foot hit the turf. Once the ball was out, Gay had the presence of mind to pick up the ball, and race past the Cleveland offense and into the end zone. While the touchdown was inconsequential, it nevertheless showed how much Gay has developed into a playmaking corner with very instinctive abilities.

Reviewing The Keys To Victory:

New England:

1. Running The Ball: The Pats were once again able to control the clock despite not having their #1 guy for the second week in a row. Morris averaged close to five yards a carry on 21 attempts. Even the receivers got into the act, with both Stallworth and Watson both getting end-arounds for 12 and 11 yards respectfully. Cleveland had no answer to the Pats attack, but did allow less yardage (147) than they had averaged coming into the game (160).

2. Confuse Derek Anderson: New England was able to mix up their coverage schemes and their blitz packages, which had Anderson off-balance for most of the game. Tedy Bruschi recorded two sacks and on both, came in relatively untouched on both occasions. Vince Wilfork also recorded a sack, his first of the season.

3. Turnovers: The Patriots certainly excelled in this aspect of the game, recording three interceptions and recovering a fumble, which led to 21 New England points. Seau recorded two interceptions in a game for the third time in his career, with the last coming while he was a member of the Chargers back in '96 against the Chiefs.

Cleveland:

1. Jamal Lewis To Set Up The Passing Game: This ended up being a huge story, as Lewis only got one carry before injuring his foot, forcing him to leave the game. In his absence, Jason Wright was able to make a solid contribution, rushing for 59 yards on 15 attempts. Losing Lewis proved to be one of the differences in the game, and his absence could have been what kept Cleveland from making any serious run at the Patriots' lead all game.

2. No Risk, No Reward: While the Browns did start taking chances going downfield later on in the game, it was when they were losing by three scores and were basically out of the game. Anderson's three interceptions all came on broken-up plays in the first half, so even though they had a lot of turnovers, it wasn't because they were making any kind of deep-ball risks, which is something they should have been doing all along. Remember, this was Rodney Harrison's first game this season, so testing him early would have been the smart move. Despite all the turnovers, Cleveland still was in a position to make a move early on in the third quarter, but could only manage three points heading into the fourth.

3. Using The Past To Help The Present: It was clear that the Pats came in totally prepared to stop what Cleveland wanted to do, and that Crennel's knowledge of the defense can only go so far. The Lewis injury was a killer, as they needed to come up with a new game plan on the fly. They were able to put up some yards and points down the stretch, but it was simply too little, too late, as the Patriots were able to jump out to a 20-point lead before Cleveland knew what hit them.

For New England, they will take their perfect 5-0 record to Dallas next week to take on the Cowboys. This will likely be built up as the game of the year in the NFL so far this season, and now that the Pats were able to get by Cleveland, the focus can now be solely on Dallas. This is a matchup of two of the top teams in the league, and should be a classic. This will be the Patriots' toughest task of the season so far. Fortunately, Dallas will be playing on a short week, which gives the Pats an extra day to prepare for their showdown in Big D.

Sweet.

So this will be kind of a slow week considering there's really nothing going on until Friday. Also, I'm planning on working a crazy amount of hours at the bar...so I can go to the bar more. It's all a cycle. In any event, I will try and do my predictions towards the end of the week. Until then, have a great week. Peace.

~Mell-o

NFL Week 5/College Week 6 Predictions

"And the old black rum's got a hold on me
Will I live for another day?"

Greetings. Yet another weekend is upon us...but there's been so much going on that I almost couldn't even get my picks in. New job, Sox, Cocks, Bruins...I love it!

So Josh Beckett had right around the second greatest pitching performance I've ever seen (Pedro in the '99 ALDS, Game 5 against the Tribe cannot and may never be touched). He was masterful with his velocity and his off-speed pitches, and the Halos looked completely baffled, only able to get four meager singles the entire game, while getting a man past second just once. Beckett retired 20 in a row at one point. Just total domination. The Sox also were on the wrong end of four horrendous calls (Lugo's caught stealing, the "foul ball" off Kendrick's foot, two horrible strike three calls on Youk and Manny), but still, Youk's solo shot in the first, and Papi's mammoth two-run blast in the third proved to be plenty for the Sox to take the critical Game 1. I'm not sure what the stats are, but I guaran-damn-tee that the team who wins the first game, percentage-wise, has the best chance to win the series, especially a five-gamer. Onto Game 2. Again, the key is to get the runs up early, then maintain, because the Angels' lineup is not equipped to play catch-up. Rather, this is a team that has to be up going into the ninth (they've won around 120 in a row win winning going into the ninth), so building a lead early is the biggest key for the Sox. Also, it will be interesting to see how Dice-K handles the Angels' small-ball ways. Very exciting times...

GO BRUINS!!! (this just in: if you're looking for a place with good times, and a great atmosphere, head on down to Beantown Tavern, where every Bruins game will be televised...that's Beantown Tavern, downtown Matthews, see you there)

The Cocks are in the top 10, and this guy was loving it last night. Look at the five keys...hey, no one's paying me...yet. Really, really good stuff. I will be back on Sunday after the new rankings come out. Right now, I'm rooting against basically every single top 10 with one obvious exception (the boys from Chestnut Hill). Oh we got something going on in the Cola. Go Cocks! Top ten baby!

Now, onto a bunch of teams I don't care about:

College (No Big 10 Edition):
Utah vs. Louisville: I seem to remember Utah destroying UCLA a few weeks past...then I really haven't heard from them since. The fact is this team doesn't play well on the road, losing to Oregon St. and UNLV on the road by 17 and 27 respectfully. Louisville got the water in the face after their demise against Syracuse, and now, I feel like they are out to beat the living hell out of every team they face. I'll take the Cardinals (W, -14.5).

Georgia Tech vs. Maryland: Both these teams had huge victories last week. GA Tech beat Clemson at home, while Maryland traveled to the University of New Jersey (Rutgers) and handed the Scarlet Knights their first loss of the year. Now, the Jackets are on the road against the Terps. I see Maryland passing all over the questionable Tech secondary (anyone remember how Matt Ryan did?) despite the fact that they have not done much of it this year. Maryland in a home upset (W, +3.5).

Kansas vs. Kansas St.: And the #1 scoring defense in the country is...Kansas! That's right, the Jayhawks are giving up 5.8 points a game. There's just one problem...they have proven they are a tough defense against opponents who barely belong on a D-I schedule. Central Michigan, SE Louisiana, Toledo, and Florida International...my oh my. Anyway, K-State is coming off a huge win at Austin, and now, find themselves second in the Big 12 North. Kansas St. has equally impressive defensive numbers as Kansas, and they've played at Auburn and at Texas. I like the Wildcats (W, -3).

Vanderbilt vs. Auburn: While this very well could be a let-down game for Auburn after a huge win at The Swamp, I still really think the Tigers have a Louisville kind of thing going on, and that the loss at home to Mississippi St. was a bit of an eye-opener for this team. Vandy has impressive numbers, but have not played a road game yet, and starting off in Auburn is not going to help matters much. I'll take Auburn (W, -7.5).

UAB vs. Mississippi St.: Last year, the Bulldogs barely got by the Blazers 16-10 at Birmingham. Now, UAB travels to Starkville heavily 'dogged. So, while I think Mississippi St. will have just enough offense to get the win (W), I see the members of last year's UAB team really stepping it up and making this closer than what the line depicts (+18.5).

Oklahoma vs. Texas: The Red River Shootout. After a humiliating defeat against Kansas St., the Longhorns will be looking to take out their frustrations on Oklahoma, who also are coming off a loss to derail their national title hopes at the hands of Colorado. I really think the real Colt McCoy is showing up this year, and for you Texas fans, it's been pretty ugly so far. Oklahoma did get beat last week, but it was on the road, and only by 3. Texas lost by 20 at home, and had problems dispatching Central Florida three weeks ago. I'll take the Sooners (W, -12)

South Florida vs. Florida Atlantic: You may be a little surprised by this one, so let me explain before everyone freaks out. South Florida is a good team...they're just not that good. You know what I mean though right? I mean is South Florida the sixth best team in the country? I don't believe so. They have a huge matchup with Rutgers next week, and will definitely leave some points on the field here. Their offense isn't that great, meaning the Owls will be able to keep it close. South Florida to win (W) and FAU to cover (+17).

Florida vs. LSU: Sorry, I just can't see Florida losing two in a row. They don't have the best team in the country (that honor goes to their opponent), but, as much as it pains me to say this, Tim Tebow is very good. Plus, the Cocks were able to keep it close despite losing their best defensive player and amidst a quarterback change. I'll take the Gators (W, +7.5) in the upset.

Iowa St. vs. Texas Tech: Iowa St. just seems to hang around in games. I know they haven't faced a pass offense like this one, but still, I see that spread, and immediately, I'm thinking that the Cyclones will be able to handle themselves. Plus, Iowa St. is the closest thing to a Big 10 team without actually having to pick one. I like the Red Raiders straight up (W), with the Cyclones to cover (+25).

Last Week: SU: 6-4, ATS: 6-4
Season: 23-13, ATS: 17-16-3

NFL:
New England vs. Cleveland: Can they seriously cover two three-score spreads in a row?...hey, why not? Pats (W, -16.5).

Arizona vs. St. Louis: This game won't be on local TV, which has me intrigued. Also, did someone say Gus Frerotte? It's Gus Frerotte time! As if their season wasn't going bad enough, Bulger, the former Pro-Bowler, gets benched for Gus Fre-freggin-rotte. Steven Jackson is again out. Tell me Whisenhunt gets this done. Cardinals (W, -3).

Carolina vs. New Orleans: The only reason this spread is so close is because for some reason, the Panthers refuse to show up when they're in Charlotte, and take their game up a notch when they are off on the road. Also, both their wins came in a dome...interesting. Can the Saints really lose their first four games of the season? All sides point to yes! (also, the home team in this series is 1-12 ATS...yowsah!). The Mell-o curse continues. Panthers on the road (W, +3).

New York vs. New York: So I guess the Giants are at home in this one, which sounds about right considering it is "Giants Stadium" and all. Ok, the key thing to note is that for some reason, the Giants are really good in October (10-2-1 ATS in their last 13) and the Jets' injury list is about a mile long. Also, the G-Men figured out how to play defense last week, which does not bode well for the Jets. It's hard to believe the last meeting was in '03, but I do like the Giants (W, -3.5).

Seattle vs. Pittsburgh: Seahawks beat the Niners on the road...check that, they destroyed them. Meanwhile, the Cardinals beat up on the Steelers in an obvious vengeance game. However, the Steelers are great at home, and Seattle, when playing actual teams (that would be Arizona) seem like they're out of place. So, I'll take the Steelers to bounce back (W, -6).

Detroit vs. Washington: Hmmm...people were dumping money on the Lions, now all of a sudden, the disparity is evening out. Detroit was a big stinker the last time they played the NFC East, and they are coming off a big win against Chicago, a team they haven't had any success against recently. So, the Lions basically bought themselves a one-way ticket to let down city. 'Skins coming off a bye (W, -3.5).

Miami vs. Houston: The Texans are my sleeper, but once again, they are without the services of Ahman Green and Andre Johnson. It caught up with them last week, and with Zach Thomas' return on the horizon, along with Jason Taylor getting fired up after trade talks, I like the Dolphins to surprise here. Dolphins (W, +5).

Atlanta vs. Tennessee: Here's something: After winning at home, the Falcons are 0-10 ATS in their next game. The Titans play well at home, and after a week off, they will bring Atlanta back to Earth after their win last week. Tennessee (W, -8).

Jacksonville vs. Kansas City: Last year, the Chiefs played the Jags at home and were favored by two and a half. This year, same line, but different favorite. The Chiefs knocked off the Jags last year 35-30, so if you're looking for something fairly solid, take the over. With that being said, the Jags are coming off a bye, and I'm going to keep my distance when picking them when they are favored. I'll go KC (W, +2.5).

Tampa Bay vs. Indianapolis: No way they do it again. No Caddy, no win. Indy (W, -9).

San Diego vs. Denver: So the Travis Henry thing is really fascinating. First, a story came out how he went all Derrick Thomas on everyone (God rest his soul) and fathered a bunch of kids with a bunch of different women. Now, he might get suspended for the entire year? Well this is going well. Now they're talking about getting Ricky Williams? Serenity now!!! All the money for this game is moving towards San Diego. I'm missing something...is Javon Walker's injury driving this? Is it the fact that San Diego couldn't possibly go 1-4? What is it? What?! I'm so befuddled by all of this. Ehhhh...Chargers (W, PK).

Baltimore vs. San Francisco: Another game where all the money is flowing to the road team. Both teams are horrendous ATS (BAL 0-4, SF 1-3). Both teams got the crap beat out of them by divisional opponents. The Niners play well as a 'dog (even though they lost big time last week 'dogged by 2) and the Ravens, again, are terrible on the road. Plus, now if Gus Frerotte wasn't enough, guess who's starting for the Niners?...Trent Dilfer!!! Now this one I really like. You know he still holds a grudge against the Ravens for picking Elvis Grbac over him. Now Dilfer's starting again, and Grbac's in the "where are they now?" files. Dilfer magic. Go Niners (W, +3.5).

Chicago vs. Green Bay: The Packers are off to a 4-0 start, which does not surprise me at all. I've said all along that this team was going to do big things, now they're just making me look good. Chicago has looked dreadful so far, getting off to a 1-3 start. The teams who played in last year's NFC Championship game are a combined 1-6...the wild, wild NFC strikes again. The money is all on the Pack, and I find it excruciating to root against Brett Favre. I'll take the Pack (W, -3) at Lambeau.

Dallas vs. Buffalo: If it weren't for the two AFC powerhouses (Pats and Indy), all the talk would be about Dallas. They have been steamrolling opponents. 4-0 straight up, and 4-0 ATS...you can't do much better than that. The Bills finally got into the win column last week against the Jets, and now get the Cowboys on MNF. Maybe it's me, but I really think Trent Edwards is really going to make a significant impact on this team. Plus, after what Stanford did on Saturday (by the way, I'm writing this really early on Sunday because I was so done from Friday night that I made it a very, very early night Saturday...plus, who can pass up a chance to drink beer out of styrofoam cups on Sunday morning...I need to prepare for this Pats/Sox double-header), I really think anything is possible. Also, considering gambling isn't legal and all, why not take a chance? I'll go against the money and take the Bills (W, +10.5) at the Ralph.

Last Week: SU: 9-5, ATS: 10-4
Season: SU: 42-20, ATS: 32-24-6

Again, a huge day on Sunday for Boston sports. The Pats are playing a trap game against Cleveland, while the Sox look to knock off the Angels in Game 3. Great stuff. Take care, and as always...

GO SOX!!!

Peace.

~Mell-o

Pats/Browns Preview

"To distant lands, takes both my hands
Never a frown, with golden brown."

So I'm going to try and do previews and reviews for Patriots Insider. This is the preview I just submitted, and hopefully, they'll like it. I'm still at the point in my writing where I always go "I wonder if anyone will like this?" Although I actually think that kind of neurosis is good because I'm still not settled in, meaning that I'm going to keep trying new things and trying to reach a bigger audience. While the initial reason I started writing was not to become some kind of nationally known writer, now...who knows? Anyway, again, I hope this is something they like, and if not, oh well, I gave it a go, but the work will not go spoiled, because here it is:

Sizing Up The Patriots-Browns Matchup

“Do it to him before he does it to you.” ~On The Waterfront

Here’s a look at what to expect in Sunday’s game between New England and Cleveland:

Trends:

Cleveland:

Since 2005:

• 0-4 when under-dogged by more than 10 points (current line: NE -16.5)

• 0-10 after winning the previous week’s game

• 2-0 vs. AFC East opponents

• 4-13 on the road

• 1-3 after scoring 25+ points

New England:

Since 2005:

• 12-6 in home games

• 10-4 when the over/under is <40

• 3-0 vs. NFC North opponents

• 5-1 when favored by 10 or more

• 16-5 after allowing 17 or less points

Stats:

	TOTAL OFFENSE
	CLE	NE
POINTS/GAME	27.3 (6th)	37 (2nd)
YARDS/GAME	347.5 (11th)	431.8 (2nd)
TURNOVERS	9 (21st)	4 (5th)
PENALTIES	27 (22nd)	15 (4th)
PENALTY YARDS	201 (22nd)	123 (7th)
3RD DOWN	43.40% (9th)	51.30% (16th)
4TH DOWN	50% (T-6th)	50% (T-6th)
SCORING EFFICIENCY	36.7% (8th)	57.9% (1st)

	TOTAL DEFENSE
	CLE	NE
OPP. POINTS/GAME	29.5 (28th)	12.0 (4th)
OPP. TOTAL YARDS/GAME	427.5 (31st)	226 (1st)
TURNOVERS FORCED	9 (6th)	4 (27th)
OPP. 3RD DOWN	44.80% (31st)	30.00% (1st)
OPP. 4TH DOWN	57.10% (30th)	66.70% (21st)
OPP. SCORING EFFICIENCY	44.90% (27th)	19.50% (3rd)

Opponent Grades & Analysis:

	PASS OFFENSE
DEREK ANDERSON	QB	B-
BRAYLON EDWARDS	WR	B+
JOE JUREVICIUS	WR	B
TIM CARTER	WR	C
KELLEN WINSLOW	TE	A-

After replacing Charlie Frye to start the season, Derek Anderson has played surprisingly well in his three starts this season. Last week against Baltimore, Anderson was efficient, going 10/18 for 204 yards and two scores, one of which was a 78-yard connection to Braylon Edwards. Edwards comes into the game against the Patriots averaging 94 yards/game. He is clearly the Browns’ deep-threat man, while Joe Jurevicius plays more towards the short and middle of the field. Kellen Winslow has also had a very productive year. Winslow has 80+ receiving yards in each of Cleveland’’s first four games. He is Anderson’s favorite target, so do not be surprised at all if the Browns try to take advantage of an older linebacking core and test the middle of the field in the early stages of the game.

	RUSH OFFENSE
JAMAL LEWIS	RB	B
LAWRENCE VICKERS	FB	B-
JOE THOMAS	LT	B+
ERIC STEINBACH	LG	A
HANK FRALEY	C	B
SETH MCKINNEY	RG	C+
KEVIN SHAFFER	RT	B+

The Browns rank right in the middle of the league in terms of rushing yards per game (114.8). However, they rank 6^th in yards per carry (4.8), with a lot of that having to do with their strong left side of the line. Joe Thomas, the Browns’’ first selection in last year’s draft, has made an immediate impact on this unit. Also, the offseason saw the Browns sign Eric Steinbach, who is one of the better guards in the league. With those two playing together on the same side, it could cause some problems for the Patriots’ defense. Outside of the game against Cincinnati, Jamal Lewis has not been overly impressive. Still, he is a very good power back, and runs downhill into the line as good as just about anyone in the league.

	RUSH DEFENSE
ORPHEUS ROYE	LDE	B-
ETHAN KELLY	NT	C
ROBAIRE SMITH	RDE	B
ANTWAN PEEK	LOLB	B-
ANDRA DAVIS	LILB	B+
D'QWELL JACKSON	RILB	B
KAMERION WIMBLEY	ROLB	B+

The Browns come into this game 30^th in the league in terms of opposing rushing yards per game (160). Despite an impressive victory at home last week, they did allow Willis McGahee to top the 100-yard plateau despite only having 14 carries (7.4 yards/carry). In fact, the Browns have allowed a 100-yard rusher in each of their first four games (Willie Parker, Rudi Johnson, LaMont Jordan, McGahee). This is clearly their biggest weakness on defense. With Willie McGinest listed as probable, it may help their unit a little, but it will take more than that to try and stop a team who is 2^nd in rushing attempts (141) and 4^th in yards/game (157).

	PASS DEFENSE
ERIC WRIGHT	LCB	B-
BRODNEY POOL	FS	B
SEAN JONES	SS	B+
LEIGH BODDEN	RCB	B

Opponents have attempted to pass on the Browns all year long. With 152 opposing pass attempts, the Browns are the #1 most targeted passing defense in the AFC. However, opponents have completed just 61.2% of their passes. To put that into perspective, the Patriots have allowed 61.5% of passes to be completed. However, the Browns simply do not have any kind of pass rush to be able to put pressure on the quarterback. They are 29^th in sacks (4) and 31^st in opponent’s passing first downs (60).

Advantages:

When New England Has The Ball:

	NE OFFENSE	CLE DEFENSE	ADV.
RUN YARDS/GAME	157 (4TH)	160 (30TH)	NE
YARDS/CARRY	4.5 (12TH)	5.0 (29TH)	NE
RUSHING FIRST DOWNS	43 (1ST)	27 (20TH)	NE
RUSHING FUMBLES	2 (16TH)	4 (4TH)	CLE
PASS YARDS/GAME	274.8 (5TH)	267.5 (30TH)	NE
COMPLETION %	79.2% (1ST)	61.2% (13TH)	NE
PASSING FIRST DOWNS	56 (5TH)	60 (31ST)	NE
QB RATING	134.7 (1ST)	101.2 (27TH)	NE
INTERCEPTIONS	2 (8TH)	3 (19TH)	NE
SACKS	3 (2ND)	4 (29TH)	NE

Overall Advantage: New England

When Cleveland Has The Ball:

	CLE OFFENSE	NE DEFENSE	ADV.
RUN YARDS/GAME	114.8 (15TH)	69.8 (3RD)	NE
YARDS/CARRY	4.8 (6TH)	3.4 (5TH)	PUSH
RUSHING FIRST DOWNS	17 (28TH)	16 (5TH)	NE
RUSHING FUMBLES	3 (24TH)	0 (29TH)	PUSH
PASS YARDS/GAME	232.8 (10TH)	156.3 (4TH)	NE
COMPLETION %	51.6% (31ST)	61.5 (15TH)	NE
PASSING FIRST DOWNS	45 (15TH)	41 (13TH)	PUSH
QB RATING	82.0 (18TH)	75.3 (8TH)	NE
INTERCEPTIONS	6 (26TH)	5 (9TH)	NE
SACKS	7 (14TH)	11 (10TH)	PUSH

Overall Advantage: New England

Matchup Of The Game: Jarvis Green vs. Joe Thomas/Eric Steinbach

The Browns only hope in this game will be if they are able to establish the running game
early. To do that, they are going to have to run the ball to the left side over Thomas and Steinbach. Jarvis Green will have his hands full trying to get into the backfield on not only runs, but as well as when Derek Anderson goes back to pass. If Anderson is given enough time to scour the field, he will find Winslow or Edwards, because both of them are outstanding playmakers, and therefore cannot both be double-covered at the same time. If Green is able to disrupt plays in the backfield, it will be a long day for the Browns’ offense.

Key Injuries:

Cleveland:

• Gary Baxter: banged-up knees; limited in practice

• Orpheus Roye: listed as questionable with a knee injury

• Eric Steinbach: neck injury; limited in practice

• Kellen Winslow: listed as probable; limited in practice

New England:

• Roosevelt Colvin: listed as questionable with an ankle injury

• Laurence Maroney: listed as questionable with a groin injury

• Donte’ Stallworth: knee injury; limited in practice

New England Keys To Victory:

1. Running The Ball: Cleveland’s defense has looked very soft against the run. The health of Maroney will obviously determine how the carries are split up. Regardless, Sammy Morris showed last week that he can be a guy who can handle the ball 20-25 times a game and be effective. The Pats may once again sit Maroney because of the opponent, but still, the Patriots will be looking to control the speed of the game and keep Anderson on the sidelines.

2. Confuse Derek Anderson: Anderson has been effective against the 3-4 defense. Just ask the Ravens, who were barely able to survive Anderson’s first appearance against him last year, and were demolished last week. While he is not an elite quarterback by any means, Anderson still has good vision, and has two big-time targets that will keep the Pats’ defense busy. Last Monday, the Patriots were able to get to Carson Palmer despite only rushing four men on most occasions. It was the way the defense set up that continued to baffle Palmer all night, and led to him having his worst game of the year. The Patriots need to show Anderson a lot of looks so that he is thinking about more than the play being called. This is what makes New England so good against young quarterbacks.

3. Turnovers: Despite the fact that the Patriots come into the game with a +4 turnover margin, good for a tie for 5^th in the league, they must be extra careful about not allowing the Browns to come into good field position off of a fumble or an interception. There’s only so much that a defense can do, and when the opposing team starts their drive 30-40 yards away from the end zone, they are almost guaranteed to bend and at least give up a field goal, or worse, a touchdown. To guard against this, the Pats need to keep their risk exposure way down, meaning a lot of runs and short passes. While this may not be what the fans want, especially after the couple of time they have seen Randy Moss make the huge downfield catch, it will help control the clock, and reduce the chances of turning the ball over in their own territory.

Cleveland Keys To Victory:

1. Jamal Lewis To Set Up The Passing Game: While it will be just about impossible for the Browns to get Jamal Lewis 100 yards for the game, they nevertheless need to show that they will not be afraid to put the ball on the ground against this front seven. With that, Anderson will be able to use play action to look for Edwards, Jurevicius, or Winslow down the field. If the Browns abandon the running game early, they will leave themselves open to a pass rush onslaught that the offensive line may not be able to handle.

2. No Risk, No Reward: In quite the opposite fashion to what the Patriots need to do, the Browns simply have to take chances on both sides of the ball. They come into this game clearly overmatched, and considering this game is at Foxboro, they need to do everything they can to take the crowd out of the game. I expect Anderson to be launching the ball down the sidelines in hopes that Ellis Hobbs or Asante Samuel cannot make a play on the ball. On defense, the key is to put pressure on Tom Brady. Kamerion Wimbley from the outside will have to be a factor, and also, I would expect the Browns to try and blitz early to maybe get some incompletions or lost-yardage plays that will put the Pats in third-and-longs.

3. Using The Past To Help The Present: Romeo Crennel coached nearly every guy on the Patriots’ defensive roster, so he has to know their strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies when they are out on the field. While even that may not be enough to help his offensive, he definitely has the advantage of knowing the Pats’ base 3-4 defense and what they like to do in certain situations. The hope is to keep the game within reason so that the Browns could catch the Pats sleeping in the later stages of the game.

Picks and predictions coming very shortly...got to get out of here before 8 for the Sox and Bruins. Take care. Peace.

~Mell-o

USC/Kentucky Preview

"Here's a health Carolina, forever to thee!"

Ok, remember how I said that the USC/LSU game was the biggest in Carolina history? Ok, change of plans...this is it.

Tonight at Williams Brice, Carolina has another chance to get into the top 10 for the first time since 2001 when they play the #8 Wildcats. Kentucky has been one of the biggest surprises this year, arguably the biggest if you throw out South Florida. Andre Woodson again is on fire, and after making his mark in last year's Music City Bowl against Clemson, doesn't appear to be letting up anytime soon. The #2 pass defense in the country will be tested more than it has this entire season, but the thing is that this team can be beaten.

Here are five keys to a Carolina victory:

1.) Contain Andre Woodson: There is no conceivable way to stop Woodson. He has an arm, he's got great vision, and most importantly, he is efficient. But, if the Cocks can hold him to under 250 yards passing, they have a real shot at taking this game. The Cocks have only given up 106 yards a game through the air, but again, they haven't faced a quarterback the likes of Woodson. The pass rush is imperative for USC to do anything to slow the passing offense. Eric Norwood and Casper Brinkley (yes, brother of Jasper...Jasper and Casper...there you go, share a laugh, tell your friends) will be coming off the ends, but especially keep your eye on Norwood. He was a first-team Freshman All-American last year by The Sporting News, and also leads the team in tackles (30), tackles for loss (6.5) and sacks (3.0).

2.) Contain Rafael Little: I know, I know, a lot of "containing," but when you're going up against a team that scores over 46 points a game, it's a word that will be thrown out a bunch. Little averages over 100 yards a game, and the Gamecocks are giving up over 200 yards a game on the ground. The Brinkley injury will come up time and time again, because that's the main reason why LSU was able to run all over us two weeks ago. Their running game (223.6, 30th) is actually ranked higher than their passing game (268.7, 47th), so that may be a small indication of how effective they have been handing the ball off this year.

3.) Keep The Two-Headed Running Game Going: Mike Davis and Cory Boyd have been great this year, even though their overall numbers do not show it. Boyd has been the bruiser, with Davis being more of a finesse back. Also, Kentucky is equally as bad against the run (203.2, 202th) as the Cocks are. What this means is the ability to control the clock, which is critical in this game. The longer USC keeps the ball, the less time Kentucky's explosive offense will have their chances. The offensive line is improving with every game, and could make a statement with an impressive outing tonight.

4.) The Chris Smelley-Kenny McKinley Connection: Coming into this season, it was hard to imagine anyone being able to step up to the plate to fill Sidney Rice's shoes as the main man in Columbia, but McKinley is doing everything he can to do so. With his 107-yard game last week against Mississippi St., McKinley racked up his second game hitting the century mark, with his first being against Georgia. Carolina fans have been craving Chris Smelley ever since he signed his letter of intent, and the Ol' Ball Coach kept him away from his hometown Crimson Tide. Blake Mitchell simply could not keep up with the ever-evolving offense, and now that Rice is gone to the NFL, he couldn't make it happen with the current receiver make-up. Smelley and McKinley seem to have an understanding about what both expect out of each other. Expect to see this combo hook up at least four or five times tonight, including a couple of deep ball attempts.

5.) Third Down: This is absolutely critical for the Gamecocks. They have been tremendous stopping opponents on third down, coming into the game eighth in the country. Kentucky is fifth at getting third downs. To me, this is the biggest key of the game. Something has got to give here. If the Cocks can force some punts from UK, then they will be able to implement keys #3 and #4, especially #3 and the ability to control the clock. Plus, the Wildcats have been horrible on fourth down (182nd), so if they cannot convert on third down, expect them to really start thinking before they go for it.

As far as what I think will happen, here goes: The crowd will once again be one of the loudest you will ever hear. The garnet and black faithful will be out in full force, and they will be rocking and rolling through the first half, and so will this team. The main thing to be concerned about is the second half is when the fans and the team collectively sober up, and sometimes can lose their enthusiasm. I just want all those going to the game to realize how important this game is to USC and that the idea they may get to that elusive SEC Championship game may still have some life to it...even though after the LSU/Brinkley injury, I kind of wrote that off. Still, a win here will get the Gamecocks into the single digits in the rankings, a place where a lot of people reading this never saw in their entire lifetimes. So, I hope everyone who is in Columbia at the W-B enjoys the game, and for all those watching around the country, get ready for an intense battle. By the way, prediction...take the favorite (USC, W, -3.5).

GO COCKS!!!!!!!!!

Peace.

~Mell-o

Division Series Preview

"That good ship and true was a bone to be chewed
When the gales of November came early."

I will just say this right now: I'm going to preview each round, but if the Sox are out, look for me to give the shortest previews ever. Like seriously, maybe one or two lines maximum, because I just won't care. Hey, I'm being honest, and this is mostly for Boston sports, so it's about right. The playoffs start tomorrow (by the way, I want to point out how this is somewhat taking me by surprise due to the disease I contracted known as "Patriots Fever"), and it's only right to preview the division series. Red Sox fans, this is rare air for us. Your team has the best record in baseball (technically we're tied with Cleveland...whatever) for the first time in 61 years...did you hear me?...61 years!!! First, let's start in the greatest city in the world...

Anaheim vs. Boston (Season Series: BOS 6-4): The Sox have cleaned up on John Lackey at Fenway, and that's who they will face tomorrow at the friendly confines. Lackey's last start at Fenway was on August 17, which coincidentally was Clay Buchholz's first start. Lackey got off to a terrible start, facing ten batters and throwing 46 pitches, giving up six earned. He did settle, and went fairly unscaved through the next three innings, allowing an unearned run before being lifted after four. Josh Beckett, who, unless C.C. Sabathia gets a huge push from somewhere, will be the AL Cy Young winner, opposes Lackey in Game 1. Beckett actually pitched the second game of the double-header Lackey pitched in, and did very well, giving up only one earned over seven innings before the inevitable Eric Gagne blow-up occurred and the Sox ended up losing. Both of Beckett's starts against the Halos came at Fenway, and in both, he was dominant, giving up only two earned in 13 innings. In Game 2, the Sox made a somewhat surprising move, electing to go with Dice-K over Schilling to face Escobar. The move does make sense though. This will be the first playoff run for Dice, and Fenway will be a much safer place for him to be than Anaheim. I know that baseball games are rowdy in Japan, but still, I don't think we need this guy to pitch with the thundersticks, and the rally monkey, and all that crazy kind of stuff going on. Instead, keep him where he's comfortable...or at least where there will be more people pulling for him than they would be out in Cali. This is Dice's first start against the Angels ever, and Escobar also did not pitch against the Sox this year, so there's no real telling of what to expect. I guess what I can share is what Escobar's past has been against Boston. Last season, he faced the Sox at home and on the road. At Fenway, he pitched well, giving up two earned over six innings. In the start at Anaheim, he gave up five earned over eight innings. So, it's sort of a mixed bag with him. The hope here is that Dice keeps the Sox in the game. Granted, the Angels bullpen has been pretty solid, but they can be beat. I worry about facing K-Rod though, and I think he's on a Rivera-like level in terms of the chances a team has to beat him when he has a lead. In Game 3, Schilling, who is 7-2 in the postseason with a 2.06 ERA. This is the guy you want to start on the road for sure. You really can't do much better than those numbers. Jered Weaver is 0-2 in four career starts against the Sox. In his one start against the Sox at Anaheim this year, he looked good, giving up two earned over six innings, but received no run support, and got a no decision. Sorry to go all "Captain Obvious" on you here, but the key to the series will be how well the Sox can get runners in that are in scoring position...RISP if you will. This has been the Achilles' heel for the team since...forever. The Angels come into this series with some injury question marks, most notably Vladimir Guerrero. Guerrero will likely be limited to DH duties because of his triceps injury, which would move Chone Figgins out of position and into right field, and as we all know, playing right in Fenway is no picnic. Manny looks healthy, but he has been limited since coming back. The same goes for Youk. How healthy are these guys? You have to hope that they are in "game" condition, and can stay there for however long the Sox are in the playoffs, because without even one of the two, the lineup suffers a huge blow. Game 1 is huge. The Sox need to come out just firing on all cylinders tomorrow. Sure, if they lose tomorrow, they definitely are still in it and have a chance, but given the choice, I want to dispose of the Angels as quick as possible. What will be interesting is if the rotation flips for Game 4, as it's believed the Sox are just going to go with a three-man rotation in the LDS. So, if Beckett has to pitch again, how will he do the second time around in Anaheim? Even more, if it gets to a Game 5, can Dice handle pitching a season-deciding game? See, this is why I just want an uneventful sweep in the first round, just like what they did in '04.

Red Sox in 3

New York vs. Cleveland (NYY 6-0): Again, these will be really short because, well, I really just don't care at all about anyone else. I have the Sox, Cocks, Pats, and Bruins to worry about this week, and frankly, again, if the Sox lose, I will really stop caring all together about baseball. So, I mean, the Yankees have clawed there way into the playoffs...I just don't think there's any way they lose to Cleveland. It has to be Boston/New York. In fact, I'm about to propose the Mets and Yankees switch leagues because the next time these two face each other in the playoffs, it should be for all the marbles, which would be the only way to truly escalate this rivalry even more.

New York in 4

Colorado vs. Philadelphia (COL 4-3): So Philly must have been laughing their collective asses off for the last two weeks or so. First, the Mets have the second worst collapse in recent memory (We're #1! Hooray!), and basically hand the division title to the Phillies. Then, two teams out west beat the holy crap out of each other until finally, Colorado won with a sac fly in the bottom of the 13th inning...or I should say, the umpires declared the Rockies the winner because the home plate umpire decided to stand completely out of position, call Matt Holliday safe, and send the Padres home because he blew a call...well done. Anyway, Holliday is the MVP of the NL now that the Rockies are in the playoffs (sorry Eric Byrnes, I did what I could), and somehow, did not break his wrist on the slide last night. Philly has Cole Hamels...and that's about it for pitching. I just believe that Colorado will take one at Philly, likely Game 2, and then will roll the Phils in 3 & 4 at Denver.

Colorado in 4

Chicago vs. Arizona (ARI 4-2): The Cubbies don't have the pitching to contend with the D-Backs. It's just assumed Brandon Webb will win his starts, so all Arizona has to do is win one other game, and they're set. However (just to spice things up), I really like the Cubs to drag this out into five games, and beat the upstart D-Backs.

Chicago in 5

So, I hope everyone has a great day tomorrow. A triple-header of baseball coverage starting with the Phillies, then the Sox, and ending with the Cubs. I'm going to probably watch the whole darn thing because...well, I totally can, so why not right? Take care everyone. Peace.

~Mell-o

Slammin' Sammy Morris

"Let's not let a good thing die."

So here we are, back again for another weekend recap.

First, I am not betting on the Big 10 ever again this season.

That conference is so awful that any team can win any given week. It's basically the NFC East of the college ranks. So, that's it for me. I'm sick of being made to look ridiculous..."and I will not be made to look ridiculous!" I totally forgot to throw in South Florida on Friday, which was such an easy call, so that hurt a little. However, N.C. State continued to carry my college picks, losing yet again at home.

GA Tech helped not only me, but BC as well, taking out Clemson, and putting the Eagles alone at the top of the Atlantic division of the ACC. The Eagles all of a sudden find themselves #7 in the country, and despite all of my nay-saying, technically do have a shot for a national title. Here's the thing though: Even if BC runs the tables, they are going to need a lot of help from all over the country to get to at least #2. The idea that four of the top five teams will be playing each other this year definitely helps the Eagles out. Think about it: If the top 5 stayed insulated from each other and did not square off, there would be much less of a chance that there would be any losses amongst them. Despite only having two currently ranked teams on their schedule, I still don't think that will hurt them in the long run. If they win at Blacksburg and Death Valley, then they should be in at least the top three. It's a long way to go to get to that point though, and you can't discount the "leap frog" effect. Despite the fact that the Eagles really need an LSU loss, if Florida wins at Baton Rouge this weekend, they will jump over BC because the Gators are right behind the Eagles, and a win at LSU will look a lot better than a win at home against Bowling Green. I'm pulling for them, but I just don't see them getting to the big dance this year. I think a BCS appearance will still go a long way for this program, and I hope they can shake the "Tom O'Brien" approach of tanking the last game, then playing a lesser team in a lesser bowl to keep their bowl win streak alive.

So let me get this straight: The Gamecocks lose on the road, then beat a team that's not that great at home, and now, they're ranked higher than they were before the LSU game?...that sounds about right. Now, USC has a huge game on Thursday against Kentucky, who have been steamrolling through their schedule, including impressive wins against Louisville (who apparently is not so great) and at Arkansas. Kentucky has looked great, but you really have to kind of appreciate what they have to go up against the next few weeks. First the Cocks on the road, then LSU and Florida at home. If you want to talk about leap frogs, if the 'Cats get through that stretch and come out undefeated, they should probably be the #1 team in the country. What concerns me about this game is that, once again, the Cocks will be without Jasper Brinkley, and they are going up against Rafael Little, who has averaged over 100 yards rushing per contest. In addition, Andre' Woodson, who is currently around 3rd or 4th in the Heisman race, has been outstanding once again. Not only does he have the ability the get the ball in the end zone (16 TDs, tied for third in the country), but has also been very efficient (67.1% completion rate, 1 INT, 163.32 passer rating). So the defense will have to play out of their heads to control UK. The good news is that USC comes into the game with the #2 pass defense in the country...that's right, in the country! Chris Smelley looked great against Mississippi St., tossing for 279 yards and two 2TDs. However, the key to beating Kentucky will be clock management and effective running of the ball. In the Arkansas game, the Razorbacks rushed for over 300 yards against UK. Now granted, Darren McFadden and Felix Jones could be the best 1-2 combo you may ever see...maybe even better than the Reggie Bush/LenDale White duo from a few years back, but Cory Boyd and Mike Davis make up a solid backfield, so I expect USC to keep the ball on the ground, and keep it away from their ball-hawking DBs, who have nine interceptions in five games. This will be USC's second attempt to get into the top 10, and this one will be at Williams Brice. I know how that place is on Thursday night games...Kentucky's going to be in for a hell of a game. I can't wait.

How about KC beating San Diego? Are you kidding me? You know there are few times in this lifetime that I will be right about anything, but calling San Diego "the most overrated team" in the NFL is looking really good right now. Norv Turner is almost like Dennis Erickson in that no matter how bad he does, he will somehow find a coaching gig somewhere because of things that he had done like 15 years ago. With Turner, his success in Dallas in the early 90s continues to carry him along the road of head coaching failure. Those Super Chargers are 1-3, and with Oakland all of a sudden coming around with new life, the Chargers are in the AFC West basement.

Speaking of which, Daunte Culpepper, who I predicted would be on the Raiders for months before it actually happened, has revitalized the Raiders, and after a beatdown of the Dolphins on the road, they're looking like they could finish around .500, and considering they had the #1 pick last year, and coupled with a coach who is so under-qualified for the job it's preposterous, that's not such a bad place to be. You have to wonder what the extent of LaMont Jordan's injury will be, and if Justin Fargas can even come close to what he did against Miami (179 yards). However, Dominic Rhodes will be coming back after being suspended the first four games, so their backfield will be pretty solid regardless.

I had a pretty good week in the pros. Going against Favre at Minnesota was a disaster. Apparently, I was missing something when the Bears went on the road and flopped against the Lions. The Seahawks looked great against the Niners on the road, while the Rams, yes, the same team I picked to win the NFC West, went to 0-4 after getting lambasted by the Cowboys on the road (at least Dante Hall took one back...that reminded me of good times...but still, the Rams' offense scored no touchdowns...seriously?). Home 'dogs, as predicted by Sports Guy, was the theme of the week, with Detroit, Buffalo, Arizona, Cleveland, Atlanta, and the G-Men all getting the job done...

...and then there's the Panthers...hahaha...

What a display by both the team and the fans on Sunday. First of all, that hit on Cadillac Williams was so ugly it was hard to describe. He's out for the year, so the Bucs will look to the Michael Pittman/Earnest Graham combo to carry them the rest of the way. To sum up Carolina's performance, someone actually said the words "bring in Weinke." Now I know he likely had a few in the hole before saying those words, but the fact that that was even thought of must be a horrifying feeling for Panther fans. Speaking of the fans, here's a thought: While this may not apply to all of them, I have to say that the Panther fans are the biggest bunch of fair-weather fans you may ever see. Why is it that this disease runs rampant in the southeast? Braves, Falcons, Marlins, D-Rays, Panthers...is it so horrible to actually stick with your team through and through? This is why I get so upset when the nation says that Red Sox and Pats fans are "spoiled." The Pats went to one Super Bowl in 30 years, and yes, they've been running hot lately, but that's because the fans have stuck by this team, even though they were terrible for a real long time. They packed into Sullivan/Schaeffer/Foxboro Stadium for years and years, sitting on aluminum benches in December. Panthers fans are leaving the game when their team is down 17-0 with 11 minutes to go in the game! Really? Is it so horrible to actually watch an entire game? So I know I work for them, but shame on a vast majority of you for leaving so early. Now, back to the guys on the field. The defense again looked dreadful at home. Two sacks in four games, and no interceptions? How is that even possible in this day and age? Also, giving up 189 yards rushing despite the fact that the #1 back went down with a severe leg injury is another discouraging item. What's even more perplexing is Carolina's ineffectiveness to play at home, while playing so well on the road. This Jekyll and Hyde situation could have a lot to do with the fact that they've pretty much played garbage on the road, and somewhat decent teams at home. Consider this: Against the run, playing two teams on the road that are known as pretty good run teams, especially Atlanta, the Panthers averaged 83.5 yards against. However, against Houston, who are trying to get by with Ahman Green and Ron Dayne, two guys are probably past their primes, and Tampa, who didn't have Caddy for a quarter and a half, they have given up 154 yards a game. The lowlight of the game for the Panthers had to be their botched flea-flicker attempt to Steve Smith, which was executed beautifully by the entire offense, and then a wide-open Smith dropped what would have easily been a 50 yard play at least. That drop killed any momentum the Panthers may have had. So now, it's off to New Orleans to play the lowly Saints. However, the Saints can't go 0-4...

Can they?...

Oh yeah, that other team I've heard so much about...

Morris Fills In Beautifully As New England Moves To 4-0

"You guys have really come up with somethin'." ~2001: A Space Odyssey

As news came down Monday that Laurence Maroney would not be active for the Monday night affair with the Bengals, there was definitely concern that New England would have a problem keeping the offensive balance they had enjoyed in their first three games.

Then Sammy Morris started running, and didn't stop until the final gun went off.

Morris ran for 117 yards and a touchdown as the Patriots once again bowled over another opponent, beating the Bengals 34-13. This is the first time since the AFL-NFL merger that a team has started off the season winning by 20 or more points in each of their first four contests, and the first since the 1920 Buffalo All-Americans to do so.

Cincinnati started off the game having only four active linebackers on the roster, and as the game progressed, two Bengals linebackers, Lamar Marshall and Landon Johnson both needed to be helped off the field. This led to the Patriots exploiting their depleted core, running the ball 34 times for 173 yards, a 5.1 per carry average.

Although they were very successful on thr ground, the Patriots immediately went after the Cincinnati defensive backfield on their first drive, passing on eight out of ten plays on their first drive, culminating in a Stephen Gostkowski 31-yard field goal to make it a 3-0 game. The Pats targeted the short and middle of the field, as Tom Brady, who had another outstanding game, attempted to lure the Bengals into a false sense of security by starting off with quick passes in the first series to set up the big plays to come later on.

The Bengals also were without their top running back, as Rudi Johnson was also inactive for the game with a strained hamstring. This marked the first time in 64 games that the Auburn standout was kept out of the starting lineup. The Bengals tried to make up for his absence with Kenny Watson, and tried to establish the ground game early, handing the ball off to Watson on the first three plays of Cincinnati's opening drive. However, once Carson Palmer decided to drop back and throw the ball, he was stymied by the Patriots' defense, as Adalius Thomas recorded his first sack of the year, abruptly ending the drive.

The Pats then tried to capitalize by again throwing the ball on the Bengals' secondary. This time, however, they were unproductive, as two false start penalties killed the Pats' chances of making any progress, and Chris Hanson made a rare appearance to punt the ball away. Hanson came into the game with only four punts on the year, marking just the third time since the merger that a team started the first three games of the year with four or less punts.

The Bengals again went silent getting the ball back, resulting in a three-and-out, as Palmer's attempt to establish the short passing game faltered. It seemed as though the Bengals and the Patriots both had the same kind of offensive strategy to start off the game. With both teams having numerous deep threats, both decided to establish a ground game and a short passing game in the early stages of the game. The Bengals' attempts were unproductive at the beginning, but would improve as the game went on.

Once Brady and company got the ball back on their own 35, they wasted no time in marching down the field. First, Brady found Donte' Stallworth down the left sideline for a gain of 14. Then, one of the key plays of the game was turned in by Morris, who, after receiving the Brady hand-off, surged through a massive hole in the right side of the line, and then put the jets on going down the right sideline. Morris showed impressive speed on the run, and was finally brought down by Madieu Williams after 49 yards at the Bengals' two yard line. Morris also showed great balance and footwork, tight-roping down the line to gain about ten more yards after the initial contact.

After two initial attempts by Heath Evans to get into the end zone, the Pats went to their old stand-by goal line play on third down, as Brady found Mike Vrabel in the back of the end zone. Vrabel has nine receptions as a Patriot (seven in the regular season, and two in the playoffs), and all of them have gone for touchdowns. The Pats have used this to their advantage over the years, using Vrabel as a decoy in goal line situations, but this time, once again, the defense was fooled, and Vrabel found himself open for the score.

As the first quarter came to a close, the Bengals were once again on the verge of going three-and-out, and were forced to punt as the second quarter began. After two passing plays, New England decided to pass again on third down. Although the Pats had 23 yards to go to make a first down, conventional wisdom would be to run the ball to get as much yardage as possible before an inevitable punt, especially when the offense is deep in their own territory, which the Patriots were at that time. Brady went back to find Wes Welker, who was running a crossing pattern over the middle, but underthrew him, instead finding Bengals rookie Leon Hall, who brought in his second career interception. This would prove to be Brady's only mistake of the night, and it was a costly one at the time.

The Bengals now showed new life after getting their best field position of the game at the Patriots' 35. Once again, Cincinnati came out running the ball on their first three plays, with Kenny Watson gaining 13 yards on the three carries. Then, on second and eight, Palmer found Chad Johnson on a screen play for his first reception of the night, breaking an Ellis Hobbs tackle and bringing the ball all the way down to the 1. Cincy then made a great call on first down, opting to run a play-action pass, which most of the defense fell for, as Palmer found T.J. Houshmandzadeh for the score to make it a 10-7 game. The game was tight, and still most definitely within the Bengals' grasp, but it would not stay that way for long.

When the Patriots got the ball back, they again went after the Bengals' linebackers, or lack thereof, with Sammy Morris, who was called upon on eight consecutive plays, which ate up almost five minutes of the second quarter. It was clear that Cincinnati was still protecting themselves against a big play down the field, which left them vulnerable to the short run bursts that Morris was producing, as he literally carried the Pats down to the Bengals' 7 from midfield. The drive ended, much like others have, with a Brady to Randy Moss touchdown strike to make it a 17-7 game with little over four minutes left in the first half. The catch was one that only a guy of Moss' caliber and stature could make, jumping over Jonathan Joseph's right shoulder to haul in the pass.

The Bengals then attacked the Patriots secondary, opting to go no-huddle for their final series of the half. Palmer went 4/4 for 50 yards, getting Cincy down to the red zone at the two-minute warning. However, Palmer and Johnson had a communication breakdown, which led to an Asante Samuel interception at the two yard line, sealing the half for the Bengals. As the teams made their way off the field, the cameras showed Palmer and Johnson in a heated discussion, likely stemming from the turnover.

With the third quarter starting up, the Bengals were able to get to midfield on a couple of Palmer completions, but ultimately, a holding penalty on first down killed the drive, forcing another punt which placed the Patriots at the 19 yard line. In terms of the return game, Welker was not nearly as productive as he had been so far this season, but his presence would be felt on the next drive.

On a third and short play, the Pats again dug into their bag of tricks, and suckered the Bengals into a reverse play, which featured Morris pitching the ball to Welker, who blazed down the left sideline, gaining 28 yards, and more importantly, keeping the drive and the clock going. After a Randy Moss reception, coupled with an unnecessary roughness penalty against the Bengals, the Pats ran the ball four straight time, highlighted by a seven-yard TD run by Sammy Morris, his third of the season, giving New England a 17-point lead.

Cincinnati appeared to collect itself on its second series of the half, driving all the way to the New England 22. However, they would have to settle for three points. Tedy Bruschi made one of the better plays of the game on the third down play deep in Patriots' territory. Palmer was looking to once again convert a quick screen pass for a first down, but the ball was tipped by Bruschi at the line, leading to a Shayne Graham, 40-yard field goal, making the score 24-10 with little over four minutes to go in the half. Graham has the second highest career field goal percentage (84.21%) in NFL history (Mike Vanderjagt, 86.47%).

The Patriots' next drive took the game into the fourth quarter, as Brady hooked up with Moss on three occasions, and got the ball down to the Cincinnati, but a failed third down rushing attempt by Morris, which resulted in a five yard loss, forced the Pats to bring on Gostkowski, as he hit his second field goal of the game, returning the Pats' lead back to 17.

The final effort by Cincinnati came at the beginning stages of the fourth quarter. Being down by three scores, the Bengals had to rely on their passing game the entire series. While the game certainly wasn't over, it was clear that Cincy was going to need a quick score to at least keep the game within reach. However, their drive stalled out at the New England 30, despite a fourth down conversion on the previous set of downs. Graham again came on and connected on a 48-yard field goal, making it a 14-point deficit again.

The Pats knew that they had the clock on their side, and given how well the running game worked through the first three quarters, it was assumed that they would simply run the clock out, but once again, never try and peg Bill Belichick on anything, because you will likely guess wrong. Brady completed passes to Moss and Stallworth for 20 and 23 yards respectively. Then, they decided to slow the pace with three straight Morris runs which got them in the red zone, and after a Cincinnati timeout, Brady again found Moss in the end zone, this time much more open, to give the Pats a 34-13 lead, which would ultimately be the final thanks to a Randall Gay interception on the last Bengals drive of the game.

Much history was made in Monday night's game for the Patriots. Randy Moss had fourth 100-yard receiving game, which extends his record for most consecutive times a receiver has hit the century mark with his new team. Also, with his two touchdowns, Moss becomes the first Patriot since Ben Coates in 1993-94 to catch two TDs in three consecutive games. He is #1 in the league with his seven TDs on the season.

Tom Brady continues to be the gold-standard for quarterbacks this year. With his 25-for-32 (78.1%) performance, Brady tied an NFL record by completing at least 75% of his passes in four consecutive games while attempting at least 25 passes. If Brady is able to throw for at least three TDs in the next game against Cleveland, he will tie an all-time record, held currently by Steve Young, with three or more TDs in five consecutive games.

The Patriots not only have the record for most 20+ point wins in post-merger history, but also have scored in every quarter played this year, and 35 consecutive dating back to the playoffs and regular season of last year.

Next week, the Pats return home to face the Browns, who are coming off an impressive victory of their own, beating Baltimore at home 27-13. This will mark the first time Romeo Crennel has faced Bill Belichick as a head coach. Crennel was the defensive coordinator for the Pats from 2001-2004 before taking the Cleveland head coaching job.

The Pats have shown one incredible balancing act for their offense and defense. The offense (431.8 ypg) is currently only behind the Cowboys (440.8 ypg) for the most total yards per game, and ranks fifth in passing (274.8 ypg) and fourth in rushing (157.0 ypg). The defense again holds the top spot in total yards (226.0 ypg), while having the fourth best pass defense (156.2 ypg) and third best run defense (69.8 ypg).

With this team continuing their electric start, it's important not to look ahead to the potential "game of the year" matchup with Dallas in two weeks. As proven before, this is a team that likes to talk about just the next game, and bounces off questions about future opponents they receive from the media. While Cleveland may not be impressive on paper, they still have a chance to win. This is the NFL, and any given Sunday, on any given week, one team can beat another. So while people cannot wait to see the game at Texas Stadium, the focus needs to stay on the Browns. Once that game is over, then the Cowboy talk can begin.

For right now, it's back to Foxboro to play the Browns next Sunday.

Sox/Angels preview tonight, along with my thoughts on all the other series. For now, enjoy the few hours you won't be hearing from me. Peace.

~Mell-o