Mell-o's Thoughts

Fantasy Football Dossier 1.0

2009-08-07T07:46:00.017-04:00

"And of course you can't become
If you only say what you would have done."

And a big what's up to you too. Again, another extremely long and dragged-out hiatus from the blog, but I'm back...at least for this one post. I mean seriously, how can I not have a fantasy football preview? It just would not have been right. If you're curious as to what exactly has happened in the last few months, then the next few words are for you. Otherwise, you might as well skip down a little bit.

In any event, there was a flurry of activity going on in my life, which of course you always hope is more positive than negative, because there can be instances when bad things continually reoccur in a flurrious manner (I'll take "Made Up Words" for $200). Well there were some of those bad things that popped up, but honestly, right now, it's looking really fine. A career change and a move to the city sometimes makes that work out that way. Sometimes, you can never accurately predict how a "life move" is going to work out. So far however, I really think I may be on to something. I compare this to going to a movie that no one has seen before, and you really have no way of knowing if you're going to like it outside of some reviews you may have heard (i.e. "The Hangover" reviews were mixed from the gun, but I was pleasantly surprised...Cambridge also had similar things happening...like "it's great for your age," but also, there was the "somewhat shady" aspect being floated around...so basically...mixed). So far it's been really amazing. I just like having something to do every day, and that doesn't even account for work. I think in a past life, I was an explorer. Not a big-name explorer like Magellan, but maybe on a smaller scale...maybe like Hiram Bingham, the guy who founded the Machu Picchu in Peru (sure, the Machu Picchu is a huge deal, but I mean Hiram Bingham is not quite an A-List conversation starter is he? Actually, he probably should be). Anyway, what I like to do is make little trips to random places. A perfect example of this was when I first moved here. One particular day, I woke up and just decided "hey, I'm going to the Boston Common, Boston Public Library, Chinatown, the financial district, and Nickerson Field at BU (the place the Pats played when they were known as the Boston Patriots back in the early '60s) today"...and that's exactly what I did. It feels good when a plan comes to total fruition. So, I guess the short and narrow of this is that I'm feeling good about things, which is just really nice. I have things to do, I have a job which may lead to some opportunities down the road, and I have a place with a rooftop view of the Boston skyline...it's not a bad situation at all (in no way am I attempting to extract any kind of jealousy from any of you reading this, but if you could understand some of the sort-of "hard times" I've fallen on in the past, you would understand that this is actually more of an exercise of relief and not about boasting about how great life is).

So hey, there was a point to this right? Oh yeah, fantasy football. It really doesn't get any better than this. Friends gathering around in person or on some online platform to roast each other for three hours, but having it be all in good fun. The total genius of this game has to be the involvement you start to have in games that otherwise would never attract anyone in their right minds. Now though, if you have Adrian Peterson, and he's in Candlestick playing the Niners in a 4:00 game, you know you have to be all over that. It all just brings a big smile to my face. So, here are some suggestions for you, and honestly, they may play to you, or you may think that this is totally irrelevant for your particular draft strategy. My hope is that it induces a couple of thoughts, even if the thought is "that is the dumbest s___ I have ever heard." Hey, you never know.

Snake Draft:

Okay, so I'm going to break my "dossier" into two sections, because while both "snake" and "auction" drafts fall under the umbrella ('ella) of fantasy football, they are two completely different processes. So, this is the Snake Draft section. The snake draft is how traditional drafts work. The reason it is coined "snake" is because the draft order is reversed after every round. Simple enough right? The biggest part of the draft is before any player is drafted. It's all about draft position. This can absolutely make or break the entire season. If you get #1, congrats...you get Adrian Peterson (unless you go rogue and pick Michael Turner...which, as my first little piece of advice, is really going out on a limb), but now you have to wait, and wait...and wait until the 20 spot (in a 10-team league) to pick again. So, while it's nice to get the best player available, you have to sit and watch all of the big names go off the board. However, I must say that drafting first has its advantages. You get three picks in the top 21. Sure, your backfield won't be stacked with big names (outside of Peterson obviously), but still, you will have three of the top 20 guys on your team, something that no one else can say. So, I actually am changing my stance that picking #1 sucks (I held contempt for going first because of my inner jealousy that I have only picked first once in my entire history of fantasy sports...the 2005 Fantasy Hockey draft...I picked Joe Thornton, and then the B's traded him...so basically, I don't have fond memories of drafting first). I now am becoming aware of the amount of damage that can be done from the first spot. Also, in terms of mega-trades before the season starts, it all has to start with Adrian Peterson right? If his name is involved in any trade, it has to make to stop and say "wow" out loud as your reading the details on your computer. So, picking first is okay in my book. Now, let's see if we can find some other key aspects that may go overlooked once the draft gets going (by the way, due to the over-indulgence of fantasy information, there aren't a whole lot of stones that have yet to be unturned, but I'll do what I can).

The Bookends Theory (Drafting Last In The First Round, First In The Second Round):

(by the way, I set my iTunes to shuffle everything, so as I'm doing this, I'm going to share what song is currently going, so you can see what I am perhaps being influenced by at the time)

"Pink Bullets" ~The Shins

The thought process for the past decade has been the absolute necessity to draft two running backs with the first two picks. However, there seems to be a growing resistance to this because of NFL coaches becoming more and more aware that sharing the load between two running backs on the same team is a great way to increase the vitality of both backs (especially the one that is the "franchise" back). So, it is becoming more accepted to chance one of your first picks on a wideout or a QB. The reason I mention this in my "Bookends Theory" is because when you have the last pick of the first round, you have an overwhelming sense that you have to go running back. This is because the first nine or eleven, or however many people in front of you most likely took seven or eight of those runners off the board. Okay, so before you go Frank Gore/Brandon Jacobs, let's think about this for a second. Why go after the ninth or tenth best back when you get the first or second best QB/WR? It seems amazing to me that people feel the need to go running back because "there won't be any available later." That's simply not true. In fact, there is tremendous value in the later rounds with running backs. Here's a pretty good list of them, with their ADP (average draft position) next to them according to ESPN's "Live Draft Results" (which is a cumulative tallying of all live drafts that have occured so far on ESPN...this is one of the greatest stat initiatives to come down the pike in a long time):

Ronnie Brown* (30.4)
Kevin Smith (30.8)
Thomas Jones (33.9)
Jonathan Stewart (46.6)
Darren McFadden* (47.1)
LenDale White* (61.3)
Knowshon Moreno* (65.3)
Ray Rice (82.1)
Chris Wells* (84.4)
Donald Brown* (102.0)
LeSean McCoy (116.7)
Rashard Mendenhall (125.9)

(the guys with a * by their names are the guys I'm real high on right now)

So, if you are willing to sit back, be patient, and take a risk, you could really reap the rewards. Perfect example:

#10: Andre Johnson, WR, HOU
#11: Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
#30: Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA
#31: Thomas Jones, RB, NYJ
#50: Darren McFadden, RB, OAK
#51: Matt Schaub, QB, HOU
#70: Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN
#71: DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
...and so on...

As you can see, you can build an incredibly potent team by going with an alternative strategy like WR/WR or WR/QB with your first two picks (also, there exists the chance of breaking a record for having the most "Johnsons" on one team...oh you could totally take the last thing I said the wrong way...please don't)

Exceptions:

If given the opportunity to draft Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton at #10 and #11 exists, throw this theory right out the window. I'm telling you right now, if for some unknown reason, you get the opportunity to draft both of these guys, take it. I can't even begin to explain how it's basically money in the bank that you win a championship if you have those two in the backfield...just trust me on this one.
Steve Slaton in general...I have no idea why, but it's all about Steve Slaton for me. I loved him at WV with Pat White and Noel Devine, and I loved how the Texans just went for it last year and started Slaton basically right out of the gate, and he responded with 1300 yards and nine scores. Big, big things are coming.

The Aaron Rodgers Theory:

"What Comes Around" ~Beastie Boys (you could interpret this one a lot of ways, because the beginning is exactly like the beginning to "Moby Dick" by Zeppelin, so you may be somewhat bummed out that it's not the original, but once the track hits, it's a nice, head-bobbing melody...)

"Hash Pipe" ~Weezer

(...I'm going to have to start calling these "two-song theories")

If I asked you to name me the leading point getter in ESPN formats last year, you would probably go Peterson, Turner, or some other running back...(reaching way back to channel my inner Lee Corso, something I haven't done in quite some time)...

"NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND!!!"

Wow that felt good (college ball is coming up soon too by the way). Anyway, Drew Brees led all players with 295 points, and second?...Aaron Rodgers. I am telling you right now, Aaron Rodgers had the second most points of any player, at any position, in the league. This could perhaps be one of the ten most shocking fantasy revelations of all time. Aaron Rodgers! I love it! So, here is the theory: I mean basically...don't undervalue quarterbacks. Here's a list of the top 10 point getters from last year, and a list of the top 10 projected in '09:

2008:

Drew Brees, QB, NO
Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
Deangelo Williams, RB, CAR
Philip Rivers, QB, SD
Michael Turner, RB, ATL
Jay Cutler, QB, DEN
Kurt Warner, QB, ARI
Peyton Manning, QB, IND
Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN
Donovan McNabb, QB, PHI
Matt Cassell, QB, NE (I had to mention that)

2009:

Thomas Edward Brady, Jr., QB, NE
Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
Drew Brees, QB, NO
Peyton Manning, QB, IND
Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAX
Kurt Warner, QB, ARI
Matt Cassell, QB, KC
LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, SD
Tony Romo, QB, DAL

Okay, the Romo projections are laughable (ESPN believes he will throw for 4,000 yards despite losing T.O. and having a trio of Roy Williams, Patrick Crayton, and Miles Austin...unless Jason Witten is getting 150 receptions, I'm not seeing it), but the point remains that seven of the top ten from last year and projected for this year are quarterbacks. Does it strike anyone else as being kind of strange that the guys who get the most points are going in like the fourth and fifth rounds (Brees, Brady, and Manning are exceptions)? Where is the logic there? I'm thinking that reaching for that quarterback is not such a laughable proposition anymore. A perfect example is back in '07 when I drafted Tom Terrific in the second round in every one of my drafts...and won every single one except for one league (yes, I was affected by the Westbrook "taking a knee on the one" incident). Right now, I have targeted Rodgers because you can get him in the fourth, and if you are able to get Greg Jennings to go along with him, it's going to be a good year for you.

Exceptions:

Jay Cutler, because who the hell knows what's going to happen to him this year.
Matt Cassell...because who the hell knows what's going to happen to him this year.

The Brian Westbrook "Trap Spread" Theory:

"Sucka N***a" ~Tribe Called Quest
"People Watching"~ Jack Johnson

When I saw Brian Westbrook was going 22nd average-wise in drafts, I had the exact same feeling I get when I'm reading a spread and do a double-take on it. Basically, it entails that it's just too good to be true. Westbrook was going in the top 5 last year, and now he's outside the top 20? What the hell is going on here? Sure, Westbrook could prove everyone wrong and go nuts this year, but my conventional wisdom thinks that him being available perhaps in the third round is too good to be true. There are others like him as well:

Joseph Addai (54.3)
Willie Parker (55.2)
Larry Johnson (57.7)
Reggie Bush (59.0)

Can't you just see yourself getting two or three of these guys though? Then, when you say the name out loud, your voice influxes like your asking a question. In the fifth round, I take Reggie Bush...? I'm just making myself crack up now. In any event, I'm keeping away from all of these guys because their ADP is way too low to me...which means that not only is their ADP on point, but it should actually be lower (and that was a nice intro to the reverse psychology I have going on).

The DeSean Jackson Theory:

"Smackie The Frog" ~Mitch Hedberg (yeah, like I'm going to skip over a Mitch Hedberg bit...you must be dreaming)

"Fireworks"~ Moby

I have had this theory in my head for quite some time, and I really think this year it will pan out for me. The reason I picked DeSean Jackson is that, invariably, when his name gets called, or when someone picks him, the reaction will be either "damn it" or "nice" or "damn it...that was nice." Also, any kind of "hmmm" and "interesting" are all good signs. Basically, what you want to do is look over the list of players and figure out which guys will elicit that kind of response. I have looked over the list of the top 200 guys (let's face it, it's not going to get past that in basically any draft), and here's my list:

Larry Fitzgerald (8.3)
Chris Johnson (8.6)
Tom Brady (13.2)
Steve Slaton (17.0)
Calvin Johnson (17.2)
Steve Smith (21.1)
Marion Barber (21.2)
Roddy White (28.4)
Marques Colston (33.7)
Dwayne Bowe (36.5)
Aaron Rodgers (37.2)
Brandon Marshall (41.0)
Darren McFadden (47.1)
Matt Ryan (50.7)
DeSean Jackson (65.2)
Knowshon Moreno (65.3)
Greg Olsen (80.2)
Kellen Winslow (92.0)
Donald Brown (102.0)
Dustin Keller (131.7)

If any of these guys are involved in trade discussions, especially the top-tiered guys, you perk up. It just happens like that. Some names just grab you more than others. You have to keep this in mind when you're drafting. Seriously, it's going to come down to taking a guy you may not even be sure about (Moreno is a perfect example), but you know that others are huge on him, so now, you are able to hedge your bets because if you're not 100%, you now have trade bait. Now not only do you have a talented player, but you have a leg up in trade talks. It's almost a oxymoron in a way. You want the flashy-name, non-controversial players (well, Kellen kind of breaks that mold). I don't know how it's even possible to do that, but the 20 guys listed (for the most part) fit that description. You really could build an entire "trade bait" team. Follow me on this...

Let's say, for example, you pick in the middle of the first round...say #6 in a 10-team league:

#6: Chris Johnson
#15: Steve Slaton
#26: Roddy White
#35: Brandon Marshall
#46: Matt Ryan
#55: DeSean Jackson
#66: Knowshon Moreno
#75: Greg Olsen
#86: Chris Wells
#95: Jerricho Cotchery
#106: Donald Brown
#115: Donnie Avery
#126: Trent Edwards
#135: Dustin Keller
#146: Patriots D/ST
#155: Mason Crosby

I mean seriously...that's a pretty good team. It can be done is what I'm getting at. It's one thing to say "hey, get really good players that have high trade value," it's another thing to actually see a plausable series of events like the one I just played out happening. Doesn't looking at that team get you excited? That's what you have to do. You have to get a team together that gets you so pumped for the season that you can't even stand yourself. And then, imagine all the trade possibilities you have going right there. Two stud runners complemented by three rookie running backs, four receivers who are about to become the #1 throwing options on their respective teams, the offensive rookie of the year, two tight ends who are about to get huge stat boosts with their new QBs in place...I'm like bouncing off my room right now.

The Brady-Moss Theory:

"F.O.D."~ Green Day

This one is old, but it's such a great strategy that I think it's worth repeating. Once you have drafted a QB or a receiver on your team, the immediate idea should be to add the QB who tosses to the receiver you have, or add the primary target for the QB you picked up. Now this can go a lot of different ways. For example, if you target the Matt Ryan/Roddy White combination, you are going to have to get that accomplished in the first five rounds most likely. However, there are alternatives to this. For instance, say you wait and pick up Matt Schaub, but you did not draft Andre Johnson. That's okay, because later on you can get Owen Daniels, and it's almost the same thing. Sure, Johnson will get more looks and more points, but you will still get the "double point" thing happening with Schaub and Daniels starting for you every week. Yet another way to do this is to draft a "bye week" receiver to accomplish this feat. While I'm not completely sold on Jay Cutler, he will present an interesting situation if you draft him as your starting QB. With Cutler on board, you can get either Devin Hester or Earl Bennett (or both if you feel the inclination), and they can jump in for you when your #1 or #2 receiver is on a bye. Sure, you're not going to get it every week, but you're going to get it at some point, and also, again, who knows what is going to happen in Chicago. Hester is basically a full-time receiver now, so is it possible that Hester can approach 1,000 yards, or Bennett, Cutler's teammate at Vandy, doing that as well. Look, Cutler's presence should account for close to 3,500 yards...someone is going to get those yards (by the way, this is exactly why I'm totally not sold on Matt Forte being in the top 5...Cutler is a bomber, and I just don't see him giving the ball to Forte 30 times a game. Forte is absolutely a great player, but I wonder if the expectations for him could be a little too high). It also works vice versa with the receiver and a "bye week" QB. A perfect example is Matt Cassell. On probably every team, Dwayne Bowe will be a starter, but on probably half of those teams, Cassell will be the backup. When Cassell fills in on the bye, you will get double points with him and Bowe in the lineup. This is also helpful if, knock on wood, your starting QB goes down. At least you have the combo set up for the remainder of the season.

The 2-QB Theory:

"Electric Feel"- MGMT

Of course, you usually pick two QBs in a draft. One of them being the guy who will start for you for the majority of the season, and then one to jump in on bye weeks. Here's my contention: As long as you are drafting two of them, why not draft two stellar ones? I'm not saying draft Brees and Brady in the first two rounds, but maybe something like Brees and Matt Ryan or Aaron Rodgers? This is something I'm putting a lot of emphasis on especially after last season and the Brady fiasco which basically cost me in every league. This works in multiple ways. First, you get two quality QBs that you can toggle off and on each week based on matchups. Second, you won't have as severe of a drop-off than you would if you went with a David Garrard or Chad Pennington as you're second QB. Third, once your second QB covers your first's bye week, you have a valuable trading commodity if you feel like taking a risk. If you think your QB1 will be able to hold on for the remainder of the year, then you can trade QB2 and pick up a lower level guy (Shaun Hill and Jason Campbell come to mind) just in case. As much as the NFL is attempting to protect the quarterback, freaky things like what happened to Brady will happen again, so this is a nice insurance clause to have.

The 2-TE Theory:

"When The Sun Goes Down"- Arctic Monkeys

I may be late to the party on this one, but doesn't it seem a lot easier to find a kicker and a defense on bye weeks than a tight end? It always seems like Vinsanthe Shiancoe is always the best option...and honestly, I really don't feel like dealing with that this year. So, I'm trying to set myself up to have two above average tight end options right from the start of the season. This is unlike the 2-QB theory in a way because it's highly unlikely that you're second TE will be of any huge trading value (unless you end up with a Witten/Gonzalez combo), so this pick will be a guy who will basically be on the bench almost all season, but, and this is like the 2-QB, he can always slide in there if the #1 man goes down. Good in the byes, good for insurance...it's just a good idea.

The Suspension Theory:

"#34"- Dave Matthews Band

This year this mainly has to do with Marshawn Lynch, who was suspended for the first three games for violating the league's substance abuse policy. However, he is still able to practice with the team, meaning that when Week 4 comes around, he should be at full strength, and he is a top 10 running back at 100% and on the field. The question then is this: Would Marshawn Lynch be worthy of a fourth round pick? See, I say yes to this for two reasons. First, once Lynch comes back, he will be money, and again, if not top 10, then borderline top 10 at least. Second, you are going to need three decent backs anyway, so will it really interfere with this strategy? The three game suspension means that the bye weeks do not commence until Lynch returns, so you don't have to worry about getting anyone to fill in from Weeks 1-3. Brandon Marshall had a similar thing happen to him a few years back, and I remember him being lights out upon his return. I doubted Lynch once...I'm not about to doubt him again.

The Steel Curtain Theory:

"Meet Me In The Morning"- Bob Dylan

Maybe I'm on my own here, but all of a sudden I'm kind of seeing the logic in drafting defenses really high up in the draft. Think about this: Last year, the Ravens led the D/STs in points with 182. Comparatively, Marion Barber, who is a sure-fire second-to-third round pick, put up 169. Hmmm...very interesting. Now my thinking is not to go too crazy here. The Steelers are going to go in the first six rounds, which is still a little too high for me, but a unit like the Titans you could probably get in the ninth or tenth rounds. So, no longer will I snicker when defenses go off the board early. These savants apparently knew what they were doing (I feel like this is a Bud Light commercial..."today we salute you, Mr. Drafting Defenses Before Drafting A QB guy).

Auction Draft Strategies:

So we covered the snake, now onto my newest obsession: auction drafts. I cannot wait for this to be available to me for basketball and hockey (I believe it was last year but I didn't notice). Auction drafts are amazing because there are no "picks." Rather, there are "nominations." Just because you have the first nomination, it does not mean you get the first player taken. In an auction draft, everyone gets to bid on every player, so hypothetically, everyone has a chance for everyone. This I like a lot. This means that a computer throwing me into a random pick (usually a sucky pick, like 9th or 10th) is not going to make or break my season...I will make or break my season. Is there any more maddening feeling than getting outbid by someone by a dollar and trying to figure out if you should outbid the guy or let him have the guy? It makes you nuts because you're trying to look out for your overall budget, but you really don't want to see a guy you targetted on another team. I've done a few of these, and here's a few principles that I can throw your way:

The Brian Cashman Theory:

"The Air Near My Fingers"~ White Stripes

"Prelude in C With Harp and Violin"~ Bach

I immediately thought of Cashman when I was thinking up this theory. Despite the recent struggles of the Sox and the resurgence of the Yanks lately, one thing still remains: Yankee championships won before $100 million contracts: 26; Yankee championships afterward: 0. With that being said, there simply is a much harder time to win a fantasy championship if you go for all the high ticket items. Sure, having AP and Maurice Jones-Drew in the same backfield is great, but you have to spend over half your team's budget to do that, and you will be stuck with having to deal with the under $10 crowd, and that isn't the greatest collection of players ever. So, here is my contention: It seems to me that splitting the difference is just the best way to go. Again, I come back to Steve Slaton, because you can get him for pretty much half of what Peterson goes for, and then, with the savings, you can go get Marion Barber and still be spending about as much as you would for just Peterson. Then, when talking about Fitzgerald, you are probably looking at around $45-50 for him. Instead of dolling out that kind of bank for one guy, you can get a combination of Roddy White/Marques Colston/Dwayne Bowe/Greg Jennings. So, much like the Yankees should have done, you are getting two quality players for the price of one high-ticket item.

The Bye Week Theory:

"Doctor My Eyes"- Jackson Browne

"Goodbye Blue Sky"- Pink Floyd

"H"- Tool

This one I believe could be one of the more inventive ones I have come up with. I am going to do a draft based on this one, and ride it out this year and see what happens. This is putting the scientific method in motion here. Okay, so let me explain this one. Imagine if you will that come draft day, you pick out one of the bye weeks of the season (4-10), and then draft a large portion of your starting lineup to all have that one bye week off. Here's a list of the bye weeks this year:

Week 4: Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Philadelphia
Week 5: Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego
Week 6: Dallas, Indianapolis, Miami, San Francisco
Week 7: Baltimore, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, Seattle, Tennessee
Week 8: Cincinnati, Kansas City, New England, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Washington
Week 9: Buffalo, Cleveland, Minnesota, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis
Week 10: Houston, New York Giants

So, let's take, for example, Week 8 (and yes, it's because of the Pats). Here's an example of how the auction may play out, and how much you're probably going to end up spending:

QB- Tom Brady ($40)
RB- Steve Slaton ($38)
RB- Clinton Portis ($35)
WR- Dwayne Bowe ($20)
WR- Wes Welker ($18)
RB/WR- Darren McFadden ($17)
TE- Kellen Winslow ($2)
K- Stephen Gostkowski ($2)
D/ST- New England ($1)
BE- Dustin Keller ($1)
BE- Trent Edwards ($1)
BE- Donald Brown ($6)
BE- Jerricho Cotchery ($9)
BE- Donnie Avery ($3)
BE- Felix Jones ($5)

So basically, outside of McFadden and Slaton, every player in the starting lineup has a bye week on Week 8. This way, instead of staggering the bye weeks, you get them all over with (for the most part), in one shot. Therefore, you are taking a risk for one week in order to have your entire lineup active for every other week. So come Week 8, yeah, you're going to be in a little bit of trouble. However, you will have your lineup ready to go for the other 16 weeks. Again, this has yet to be done, so the results are still pending...it is, after all, a theory.

The $160 Theory

"Candyman"- Grateful Dead

"Monkey Man"- Rolling Stones

I've broken it down, and realistically, if you don't want a completely terrible bench, you can spend $160 on the starting QB, two starting RBs, two starting WRs, a flex RB/WR, and a starting TE. Let me explain in another format:

Budget:

QB, RB, RB, RB/WR, WR, WR, TE: $160
D/ST: $1
K: $1
2 Backup WR/RB/TE: $2
5 Bench Players: $36

So you spend a buck on the D/ST and the kicker. Then, factor in a buck a piece for two backups at RB/WR/TE (Kellen Winslow, Dustin Keller, Tony Scheffler, Donnie Avery, LeSean McCoy, Rashard Mendenhall, Percy Harvin), and you are left with $36 to spend on five other bench guys. I think the key really is to not box yourself in with anything. You want to have options at all points of the draft. You don't want to spend too much money too fast, and you don't want to be Daddy Warbucks at the end with $20 to spend on a bench player and a kicker. It's all about finding that happy medium really. I really think $160 is really pushing it to the max in terms of your starting seven though. Once you go over that, you're going to back yourself into $1 land, and while there are some nice options there, you really are cutting down on your options. If you have $40-50 to spend on the rest of your team, you're not going to get everyone you want, but you will be in a position where you will have at least decent backups that you can plug in for bye weeks.

The T.O. Theory

"A Kiss Is Not A Contract"- Flight Of The Conchords

This one is really simple. When you are up to nominate someone, nominate people that you want nothing to do with. This has a two-prong effect. First, you are making other teams spend their money on players you don't want, thus cutting into their budget. In addition, you are filling a spot on their roster, which means that they have one less spot to try and get someone that you actually want. In every single auction draft, I throw out T.O. as the first one, and usually what happens is that not only does he go for about what his MSRP is ($20), but he may even go for something higher. Imagine, a guy you don't want is out there, and there are bidding wars for him. I mean people are actually spending money and time worrying about a guy who you won't touch with a six-foot pole. How great is that? Basically, you want to spend other people's money and spots so you can get the guys you need cheaper.

Well, I think for right now that's all I have for you. I may add some more if I come up with any others, but for now, I think this is a nice little blueprint to have. If anything, it does suggest thought, which was the entire purpose of writing this. Good luck everyone. Hope all is well. Peace.

~Mell-o

NBA Playoff Predictions: Round Two

2009-05-04T19:09:00.005-04:00

"Since you have flown, theres something special in the air."

I know the NBA Playoffs have already kicked off Round 2, but guess what?...I have absolutely no idea who won the Dallas/Denver series last night, so this is pretty much the best I could do in terms of a preview column before all the series begin.

Working constantly (a good thing, mind you) has really made the days all blend together, making it even more amazing to me that the Celts are playing just two days after their scrappy Game 7 victory over the Bulls at the Garden on Saturday. Give Chicago credit. They seemed to have an answer to every blow the C's could throw them. Ultimately though, what happened was that their ultimate demise was based on the fact that they had little-to-no collective playoff experience, and trying to play a veteran team on the road in a Game 7...the defending champs on the road in Game 7...well, your backs are going to be against the wall from the get-go.

What I figured would be the death-nail, and what probably actually ended up being the end, was Joakim Noah. As I have said from the moment he was drafted, Noah is purely an energy player. He feeds off of the hatred of the road fans, and off the love of the home crowd. However, when a player like this is in existence (see: John Rocker, Dennis Rodman), they will come undone in front of the road crowd. The home crowd somehow wills said players to be able to put up good numbers while also being completely mental. However, once a player begins to go mental on the road, the road fans start to feed off of that, which further pushes the player into dire psychological circumstances that they have absolutely no control over. Noah, while being much less controversial than someone like Rocker or Rodman, basically followed this formula, and fell apart in the end. Keep in mind that this started in Game 1 when Noah, who fouled Paul Pierce with .8 seconds left in regulation, nearly made this a much shorter series with one of the all-time bone-headed plays in NBA history. In another game (I want to say Game 5), he should have been called for goaltending on a 90-foot shot at the end of the half. This is the reason I threatened to disown the Celtics if they drafted Noah. I absolutely can't stand the guy...I mean I think he's a great talent, but his head is in the clouds somewhere, and he just won't be a legit star in the league ever, even though his talent would suggest otherwise.

In other news, much like the NHL, there weren't a whole lot of surprises. I think the biggest surprise, outside of how epic the C's/Bulls series became, was how Orlando nearly melted down against Philly. I have to say, when the series was 2-1 Philly with Game 4 on tap at the Wachovia Center (I think it's still called that...okay, sidenote: Is there any chance that Philly gets the name "Spectrum" back somehow? I mean Boston eventually did get "Garden" back...keep an eye out for that...it's a feeling), I was not liking Orlando's chances. However, they fought back admirably to take the series in six.

So, I mean that was pretty much it. Nothing too drastic. Dallas beating San Antonio I guess was an upset based on seeding...but was it really an upset? To me, not so much. Anyway, here is what I'm thinking for Round Two:

Eastern Conference:

(1) Cleveland vs. (4) Atlanta:

Line: CLE -2250

The Cavs made quick work of Detroit, which was a surprise to absolutely no one. If you watched any of the games that took place at the Palace, you could just feel the crowd kind of like "we're going to lose because our GM made an idiotic salary dump...but hey, at least we get to see LeBron kick the crap out of us!" The Hawks, contrary to popular belief, are going to make this series very interesting...as soon as the series goes to Atlanta. I think the Cavs will finally get some kind of adversity against them when the series shifts to Atlanta. Still though, the Cavs ultimately have home court, which is critical based on their historic home run this year. So, the Cavs win, but the Hawks do make it interesting.

Pick: Cleveland in 7

(2) Boston vs. (3) Orlando

Line: ORL -126

As I have been saying all along, I think Chicago was a tougher matchup than what the second round was potentially going to bring (although after last year, it is arguable that Atlanta would have been even tougher the second time around). I especially believe this about Orlando. Turkoglu and Lewis are both hobbling, and their injuries are turning out to be more severe than what was originally thought. They have the advantage down low, but when you look at it, Howard does not have as good of a matchup against Perk as you may be led to believe. Two things really have to happen here: 1) Eddie House needs to make an immediate impact, because he was non-existant until Game 7, and 2) We need a full-fledged mutiny against Stan Van Gundy. We had kind of a half-hearted mutiny in the Philly series...we need a Bravehart/Scotish overthrow kind of situation to happen. Oh, also, I understand that the Celts have injuries, and the Magic beat them twice without KG...but underdogged?...Really? I mean I know I basically just spelled out why they're 'dogged, but I still say the Celts have a better overall team even with the injuries to Garnett and Powe.

Pick: Boston in 5

Western Conference

(1) Los Angeles vs. (5) Houston:

Line: LA -869

I'm still kind of curious as to why people believed Utah would put up a fight against the Lakers. That was all kind of confusing, and for a little bit, I thought "hmmm...is this one of those times where I may have no idea what I was talking about?" (and I have a lot of those moments admittedly, as I'm sure you may have as well)...but in the end, it turned out I got that one right. So now the Rockets come in. I will say this...if the Lakers are going out, they're going out right here. With Bynum back, they're obviously a better version of last year's Finals' runners-up. Yao is going to be a mismatch for whoever is on him, and it will be interesting to see how well Fish plays against Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry. In the end, I think Kobe has a lot to prove against Ron Artest, and taking him out would add another notch to his already extremely impressive career.

Pick: Los Angeles in 6

(2) Denver vs. (6) Dallas

Line: DEN -170

So New Orleans kind of let me down huh? Yeah, the Hornets pulled a Bravehart on Byron Scott and just gave up on him. I wonder how much magic Chauncey has left for the Nuggets. My feeling is that betting on Chauncey is like betting on Clemson. When you bet against them, they will find a way to make you pay for it, and once you come around to betting on them, they will let you down big time. So, I'm taking my chances and going with Chauncey here, although personally, I would much rather see Dallas taking on the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.

Pick: Denver in 6

Record Last Round: 6-2

Right On The Freggin' Money: 2

So, short and to the point. Again, that's the way it's probably going to work now with my work schedule being as hectic as it is, and with MTELs coming up this weekend, there just isn't enough time to do what I really want to do here (and that's actually write a preview where I go way more in-depth than what you just read). In any event, that's my "thoughts" for this round. Again, this is the best time of the year, so enjoy yourselves. Happy Cinco de Mayo. Cheers. Peace.

~Mell-o

NHL Playoff Predictions: Round Two

2009-04-30T18:13:00.002-04:00

"Weeping and wailing and moaning,
You've got yourself to blame, I tell you."

Okay, Round One has come and gone. I knew there would be a giant upset...just didn't pick the right one. San Jose, the NHL leader in points, was bounced by Anaheim in six games. I can't say I was completely surprised by this given that I figured the Ducks would give the Sharks all they could handle, but the Sharks just got completely outplayed. In fact, it's a wonder they didn't get swept (won Game 3 in OT).

Carolina made one of the most dramatic comebacks in NHL history in Game 7 against Jersey, scoring two goals in the final two minutes of play to beat the Devils 4-3 in East Rutherford, advancing to the semifinals to face the B's.

Outside of that, there weren't a whole lot of surprises in the opening round. So, let's see how Round Two is shaping up:

Eastern Conference:

(1) Boston vs. (6) Carolina (BOS 4-0)

Line: BOS -215

Again, don't sleep on Carolina. They have a big-time scoring option in Eric Staal, and they are riding a hot goalie in Cam Ward. However, as was evident in the first round, the Bruins are going to be incredibly tough to bounce. Too much depth, too much D, too much scoring...just too much.

Pick: Boston in 5

(2) Washington vs. (4) Pittsburgh (WSH 3-1)

Line: WSH -110

The line on this series is a lot lower than I had envisioned (I was thinking more like 170-175). I have to attribute this to the Caps inability to close the door on the Rangers. In fact, it was looking for awhile that they wouldn't even be able to make it past Game 5. However, they persevered, and now the dream matchup is in place between Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin. Look, there comes a point in time where you have to think about what the future matchup would look like, and with that, I'm talking about who would likely be playing in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Bruins. If you look at it like that, there is no way Washington doesn't win this series. A Boston/Washington finals is the best you can possibly get, and because the Caps were able to find a way to beat the Rangers in 7, I can't see them getting bounced here.

Pick: Washington in 7

Western Conference:

(2) Detroit vs. (8) Anaheim (DET 3-1):

Line: DET (-280)

Okay, here's my concern about Anaheim. Yes, they have probably the best defensive duo in the league, but do they have enough scoring to keep up with Detroit? The Wings possess a better all-around presence than what the Ducks bring. The lone weakness the Wings have is Chris Osgood in net. He has been inconsistent, and the Ducks could potentially take advantage of that. Ultimately though, I think Detroit is very much like the B's in that with the absolute ease they had getting by in Round One, I just cannot see a team like Anaheim beating a colossus like Detroit.

Pick: Detroit in 5

(3) Vancouver vs. (4) Chicago (Tied 2-2)

Line: VAN -130

Again, I am huge on Chicago, but the thing that makes me hesitant is that Roberto Luongo is probably the best overall goalie left in the playoffs (sorry Tim Thomas). However, I'm still going to ride the hot hand in Chicago. Also, much like what I did with the East, I'm looking down the road towards the finals, and who would be the matchup for Detroit. My thinking is that this would set-up to be the experienced (Detroit) vs. the newbies (Chicago). I think it makes a lot of sense, so I'll continue to go with the Blackhawks.

Pick: Chicago in 7

Record Last Round: 5-3

Right On The Freggin' Money: 0

So that is all for the NHL. A quick side note, because I'm becoming aware that I haven't talked about soccer in seemingly forever. Chelsea bounced Liverpool in an amazing home-and-home in the UEFA Champions League playoffs, which saw the Blues beating the crap out of the 'Pool on the road 4-1, then coming back at the Bridge to take them out in a 4-4 draw (the way the playoffs work is that each team gets a home game, and the aggregate (combined) score determines who moves on). So now, they are playing Barcelona. On Tuesday, they played in Spain in front of an estimated 95,000 people, and played them to a 0-0 tie, which was a huge feat considering Barcelona had not been shut-out at home the entire league season. Now the two will play at the Bridge on Saturday to determine who will move on to the finals. Right now, it looks as though we may have a rematch from last year, which saw Chelsea lose to the uber-popular Manchester United squad.

I have to say that the biggest difference in Chelsea from the first half of the season to the second half has to be the coaching move that was made. Luis Felipe Scolari was a decent manager, but the drama that he brought on in the in-fighting with certain players (most notably Didier Drogba, the Blues' second-best attackman behind Nicholas Anelka) got to an absolutely ridiculous level, and he had to go. As soon as Guus Hiddink took over, you could see that the club was much looser and they have played at such a high level ever since, only losing once in three months. With Drogba playing much more frequently, they have a completely different looking team. Also, credit has to go to Frank Lampard, who potentially could be one of the top four or five players in the world. Lampard has been simply amazing in the middle, and not only is he scoring in bunches, but he's creating chances for guys like Drogba, which has resulted in this lengthy streak that the Blues are on right now. Also, keep in mind that this is the Champions League, and that Chelsea is already in the FA Cup Final against Everton (which will be played on May 30), who knocked off Man U. in the semis. So, if Chelsea is able to get by Barcelona, they potentially could be playing for both the major European championships this year...not too shabby.

Well, I'm watching the Celts/Bulls Game 6 right now, and it's in OT...again. I'm pretty sure the league made some kind of overtime mandate in this series...I mean how many close games can these teams play? It's totally ridiculous, but I'm going to get back to the game. Take care everyone. Peace.

~Mell-o

The Fallout

2009-04-28T16:28:00.004-04:00

"Who are you to wave your finger
You must have been out of your head."

So I was at work on Draft Saturday, and we had the people working the main dining room keep us in the kitchen informed of who the Pats drafted. Needless to say, there seemed to be a common theme in each of the updates..."yeah, the Pats just traded down again." It got to the point when I was wondering if they would pick at all, or if they were attempting to compile like 40 picks for next year's draft.

In any event, the Pats had one of the most fascinating drafts in recent memory. They were slotted to pick at #23, and not only traded down once (with Baltimore), but traded down again afterward (Green Bay). Then, they traded up in the second round with Oakland, then, on Day 2, the Pats traded two of their third round picks for second-rounders next year, and, just when I thought it couldn't get any wackier, they trade Ellis Hobbs to Philly (who now has both the corners from the Super Bowl XXXIX team) for two fifth rounders, which they promptly traded to Baltimore to move up in the fourth round...keeping up with all of this was probably the most exhausting exercise I've done in years (this was like the "Boot Camp" of keeping up with draft trades).

Okay, so, how did we do? Well, for the umpteenth year in a row, this Patriots' draft will be able to be completely graded by what happens in next year's draft. I guess my read on this year was that the Pats were just not in love with anyone this year, and instead, they wanted to focus on finding value for the picks they had, and doing anything possible to get some kind of value with the picks they held onto. They popped out of the first round altogether, which makes me think that, again, there just wasn't a player that Belichick and Co. felt they wanted to throw $5-10 million guaranteed at. So, they made Patrick Chung their first selection of the draft. This speaks to how the Pats feel about their current safety situation...basically, they don't like it, and neither do I. As I have said before, James Sanders is not an NFL starter. In addition, I felt like they could have made a run at Darren Sharper before he went to New Orleans. Instead, they waited until the draft and took Chung. Chung has an interesting scouting report. Instead of boring you with the details, I'll keep it simple. Basically, he's a Rodney Harrison clone. He's not the best in coverage, and he's not the best at reading offenses, but when you ask him to hit someone, not only does he hit them...he lays them out. Considering how well Harrison made the secondary, I think this is a really good move. Also, you move Brandon Meriweather back to free safety, which is more of his game than being a strong safety.

Then, through two trades the Pats made, they ended up with back-to-back picks in the second, and took two New England college products in Ron Brace (BC) and Darius Butler (UConn). Brace, in case you were unaware, is a gigantic individual (6'3, 330). This is a smart play for two reasons. First, he adds depth in a position where they basically have none in (do you really feel comfortable with Mike Wright being the heir-apparent?), and second, if for whatever reason they are unable to sign Vince Wilfork, they now are in a position where they have a high draft pick who could have the ability to step in and start in the 2010 season if they need him.

Butler was interesting because he actually fell into the second round, which was surprising enough, but the fact that a lot of experts correctly pegged Butler as being New England-bound (with most of them having him go #23) were correct in their assumption of Belichick's presence at the UConn pro day having some significance, which I really did not believe. However, in looking at what Butler potentially can bring to the table, I'm huge on this pick. Sometimes, when a prospect is almost to the point of being arrogant, it can be a turn-off. For some reason, I like how Butler carries himself. Maybe it's because he's coming to New England and I'm completely biased, but I like his confidence. He talks a little bit, but he also can back it up (fastest 40 time at the combine). Personally, I'm not completely sold on Terrance Wheatley and Jonathan Wilhite becoming every down corners. However, if Bodden plays up to his '07 level, and Butler is anything like how he was in college, the corners of the future may have fallen right into Belichick's lap here (by the way, I'm convinced that Bodden will be more than decent, which is why I hope they sign him to a fairly long-term deal before his value start going up).

I know that when Sebastian Vollmer got taken with the third second round pick, I really didn't know all that much about him. Then I remembered when they drafted Logan Mankins, I had the same feeling, so I guess it's all pretty much relative at this point. Also, I have said over and over again that the right side of the line is just terrible, and they were in need of some help. Judging by this video, I'm feeling a lot better about our situation.

The other notable pick for the Pats came on Day 2 when they went with Brandon Tate, receiver out of UNC. Tate is an impressive receiver who can also contribute on the return game. Two things that are interesting though: 1) He tested positive at the combine for pot, which doesn't say much in terms of his timing, and 2) He could miss the entire 2009 season recovering from two torn knee ligaments. It's not as though the Pats especially need a receiver this coming year with Moss, Welker, Lewis, and Galloway, but they obviously will be needing one in 2010 when Galloway will likely be gone. Also, with the Hobbs trade, the Pats will be looking for help in the return game, which Tate can help them with. Still though, it's curious that they would kind of reach for a guy when it's not known if he will be able to make a full recovery from that injury. I think this is like a John Smoltz pick, where there is little-to-no risk involved, and the reward could potentially be huge. So, the key word here is intriguing I guess.

So, that's pretty much how the draft went for the Pats. They didn't make a huge splash with anyone, but they made picks that they hope will contribute at some key areas in the future. In addition, the Pats now have a ridiculous three second round picks next year, matching the three that they had this year. Belichick officially has spear-headed the idea of not breaking the bank for rookies. He is basically initiating what the league should already have in place, which is some kind of rookie salary cap. He traded out of a first round pick twice purely because he didn't see a Jerod Mayo this year (i.e. a guy he was in love with). In addition, he saw what I was deducing when I was making the mock drafts, which was that there was a ton of value that would be hitting the top of the second round. Belichick saw this, and wound up with three picks right at the beginning portion of Round 2. So, he was able to get first round talent, and sign all of them to much less money than they would have gotten if they went in the first round. This is why when you go around the web, despite passing on guys like Clay Matthews, Connor Barwin, etc., they are universally getting a B+ and fairly high grades across the board because of the value they got where they picked at, the fact that they won't be breaking the bank for any of their incoming rookies, and they picked up two second-rounders for next year. All and all, I'm pretty happy with how everything went. My only issue is that the OLB position remains a mystery, and by how this draft went, it says two things to me: 1) The Pats are going to get Jason Taylor, or 2) They are under the impression that Shawn Crable will be able to come in and make a huge push to be a starter, because Pierre Woods as the starting outside linebacker opposite Adalius Thomas is just down-right scary to me. I guess time will tell in terms of how that on-going saga will shake down.

Okay, quick I know, but I just wanted to share my opinion about how the Pats drafted. Again, with my MTEL test coming up, and working two jobs, my time will be somewhat limited as to how much I can write. Celts made an improbable comeback last night, which was awesome. Then, Javier Lopez muffed a simple handoff from Youk when he was attempting to cover first, losing the game and the eleven game winning streak, which was not awesome. The Bruins are set to play Carolina starting Friday. This is fitting because the general formula for the Bruins making it to the Stanley Cup Finals was to beat Hartford and Montreal along the way...so this is about as close to that as we can possibly get right now. It will be interesting to see how this series goes considering how easy the Montreal series went. I'm pretty sure Carolina will put a stronger fight, but I am so confident in the Bruins right now that I see them getting through and making the Eastern Conference Finals.

So, that's all for now. Thanks for stopping by. Peace.

~Mell-o

2009 NFL Mock Draft 4.0 (The Finale)

2009-04-25T10:38:00.006-04:00

"To think we got nothing to lose
We’re losing everything but the truth."

Finally, the day is upon us. Draft Day 2009 is here...can you feel the love! Extra excited after last night's Yankees/Red Sox game, which eerily played out like a game the Yankees were going to win, and then, once again, the Sox surprised me. After grounding into about 40 double plays to start the game, they came through in the clutch. Jason Bay hits the Bernie Carbo-like homer in the ninth off Rivera (with two outs mind you), then Youk comes through in the eleventh off Demarso Marte (who almost left Fenway with an ERA under 15...oh, so close). Another instant classic in the series. I never like the Sox' chances after a great win like that though. Also, this pitching matchup includes A.J. Burnett, who I have accurately predicted would get off to a hot start, but inevitably will hit the DL right around the end of June. So, I'm seeing Burnett going like six or seven, with one earned run. Beckett, however, I'm not totally sold on as far as a pitchers' duel right now. I'm seeing a score of 4-1 heading into the eighth, but as we saw last night, all bets are off with the Yanks' bullpen.

And now, to what we've all been waiting for. The final mock draft in the 2009 series. Right now, it is right around noon, and we are only sold on one pick so far. So, let's see what might happen.

1. Detroit- Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia: Done deal. Six years, $72 million, $41.7 million guaranteed, 100% wrong.

2. St. Louis- Jason Smith, OT, Baylor: Easily one of the most intriguing subplots heading into the draft was the Rams' brass buying Mark Sanchez a plane ticket from LA to St. Louis for tomorrow. However, if you draft a QB #2 overall, don't you want to get him into the city on Saturday and not Sunday? That's why I think the Rams are attempting a "Belichick" here by screwing with other teams in hopes that a team like Denver or Washington will trade up to #2 to take Sanchez. This just looks too simple. I mean even I saw through it...shame on you St. Louis. Too many theatrics there.

3. Kansas City- Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest: All the talk seems to center around Tyson Jackson going here, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Just the fact that Curry is being compared to Patrick Willis should say enough for the Chiefs to take him at #3

4. Seattle- Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia: What we know is that the Seahawks are falling out of favor with the thought of taking Mark Sanchez. We also know that no one seems to want to trade into the top 5, hoping that Sanchez falls out of the first five picks so the amount of guaranteed money goes way down. So, they draft their future franchise left tackle here. Monroe will be able to replace Walter Jones when he either retires, or gets bounced a la Orlando Pace.

5. Cleveland- Brian Orakpo, DE/LB, Texas: A lot of people continue on the Crabtree bandwagon here, but after reading the reports coming out of Cleveland, citing that Mangini doesn't like the guy at all, and that Crabtree has some character issues, I think Orakpo is the safest pick here.

6. Cincinnati- Andre Smith, OT, Alabama: I realize there are a ton of questions surrounding Smith, but also realize that if you hear what's coming out of Cincy, they have Andre Smith higher than Monroe, which makes the decision at #6 really easy.

7. Oakland- Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri: I based this pick entirely on Al Davis' tendencies. He likes the speed guys...he's probably going to go with a speed guy then. Sure, Crabtree, overall, is a better receiver, but Maclin has the speed, and the return game factor going for him.

8. Jacksonville- Mark Sanchez, QB, Southern Cal: Oh trust me, it's not going to be Jacksonville taking Sanchez if he's still on the board. This is kind of like a placeholder for Washington or the Jets.

9. Green Bay- B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College: I've been sold on this one for months now, and really, nothing is changing my mind on this one. They already said they aren't drafting Crabtree, and the only other option would be a guy like Everette Brown, but I think Raji makes the most sense.

10. San Francisco- Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech: Crabtree has character issues, but we've recently learned that Mike Singletary will not be conducting the draft, meaning there is more of a chance that the best player available goes here, and not a "character" guy, which is what Singletary would do.

11. Buffalo- Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss: This is one of those picks that makes so much sense that I can totally see myself being way off here. Nevertheless, the Bills need a tackle, Oher is the best one available...I mean what would you do?

12. Denver- Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU: The Broncos have said they are not going to trade up for Sanchez...for whatever reason, which basically means they are sticking with Kyle Orton. I will give Josh McDaniels this: I am totally confused by what he's doing. So he has the unpredictability factor going for him...I guess that's nice...if it works.

13. Washington- Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee: Relax Redskins fans (especially those of you who like Jason Campbell), I don't think the 'Skins will be the ones to move up, although they are one of two or three teams that seem to get the most play to be in the Sanchez hunt. If they hold on to #13, they will get a good player here in Ayers. If they can, I would think the 'Skins would try and trade down to get some more picks, because they are lacking in that department.

14. New Orleans- Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State: I can say with like 80% certainty that a Buckeye is going here...which one is the question. I flip-flopped again on this pick because of what I'm hearing from New Orleans and where these so-called "experts" are leaning. So, I say Jenkins with some hesitancy.

15. Houston- Clay Matthews, LB, Southern Cal: It's either him or Aaron Maybin...that's pretty much all I keep hearing. I think Matthews' stock is receiving a well-timed boost right before the draft, which helps him bust into the top 15.

16. San Diego- Rey Maualuga, LB, Southern Cal: Just read a report on NFL.com saying that the Chargers are likely not going with a running back at 16, contrary to every other report I've heard. They instead want an "impact" player who can step in right away. Enter Maualuga.

17. New York Jets- Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State: It would not surprise me one bit if the Jets ended up trading up into the top 15 to take Pettigrew, as apparently, the Jets are absolutely huge on him. Of course all of this goes out the window if they are able to make a deal with Jacksonville, which I expect they will do. You heard it here: The Jets will trade up to #8 and draft Mark Sanchez. Again though, if for some reason they can't work out a trade, they go with Pettigrew here, as I've heard that they're not as huge on Josh Freeman as it was originally thought.

18. Denver- Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB, Ohio State: With news of the Chargers passing on Wells at 16, it may change up the Broncos' plans in terms of who they will be going with at #18. They have an interesting decision here, which is very much reflective of how the Broncos' offseason has been so far...interesting.
19. Tampa Bay- Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas City: I know the Bucs are big on Josh Johnson, but I mean...really? A guy who has not started one game in the NFL and was a fifth-rounder last year...really? I'm going to go ahead and say I'm not sold on that at all.

20. Detroit- Brian Cushing, LB, Southern Cal: This is going to be one of the easiest ones to predict right before the pick goes down. Basically, Detroit is going to go with the best player on the board, so at this point, just look and see who's the best guy left. I had Maualuga here, but with him off, the board, all you have to do is substitute another SC linebacker in, and you're good to go.

21. Philadelphia- Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia: So Philly is in an interesting dilemma here. With all of the recent discussion about Moreno going to Denver, and the Jets' recent fascination with Brandon Pettigrew, you have two teams drafting ahead of Philly that are targetting the two guys they are big on. Plus, factor in the Eagles possibly trading for one of the big three receivers available, and who knows what could happen here.

22. Minnesota- Percy Harvin, WR, Florida: All the reports about Brad Childress showing up down in Florida to meet with Harvin basically makes this pick a lot easier to make. That is, unless the Jets makes things interesting and draft Harvin at 17. I think the Jets potentially could control how the first round of the draft shakes out...I'm telling you, those New Yorkers...it always has to be about them.

23. New England- Aaron Maybin, DE/LB, Penn State: Maybin, LarryEnglish, Everette Brown, or Connor Barwin here, and everything will be copacetic.

24. Atlanta- Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss: The Gonzalez trade means there are no worries as far as a tight end. Great move by the Falcons. Now, they can focus on the defensive side of the ball.

25. Miami- Everette Brown, DE/LB, Florida State: This pick now makes the Jason Taylor saga that more interesting. With the Pats and Dolphins both potentially taking rush ends in the first round, who is in the lead to get Taylor now? Very interesting.

26. Baltimore- Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland: They need a receiver, the guy is from Maryland, and he's the best receiver left on the board...this is too easy, meaning that it probably won't happen.

27. Indianapolis- Evander "Ziggy" Hood, DT, Missouri: I think that because the defensive tackle position is so weak, a guy like Hood, who worked out very well, was able to become a first round pick based on the workouts and also based on need.

28. Buffalo- Michael Johnson, DE/LB, Georgia Tech: Again, the Bills get a top tackle and a top DE prospect in the first round...they're pretty psyched.

29. New York Giants- Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers: Anytime you have a guy like Britt, or Heyward-Bey, and you slot them in with a team that plays their games right by where they went to school, you get a little nervous, because very rarely does that all work out.

30. Tennessee- Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina: There exists a distinct possibility that Nicks' recent weight battle could slide him out of the first round altogether, opening up the door for Brain Robiskie or Mohamed Massaquoi sneaking into the first round. To me, Nicks is the goods, and Robiskie and Massaquoi would be gigantic reaches here.

31. Arizona- Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut: It's funny how many people share my thinking on the #31 and #32 picks. 'Zona needs RB depth, and they are big on Brown.

32. Pittsburgh- Max Unger, C, Oregon: Isn't that a good Steelers name? Max Unger? I definitely think so...although Alex Mack is another good one. I'm pretty sure one of the two will cap the first round.

Okay, now, the five teams who will be looking to move up:

New York Jets
Washington
Dallas
Philadelphia
Chicago

Five teams looking to move down:

Jacksonville
Jacksonville
Did I mention Jacksonville?
Cleveland
Washington (yeah, they're on both lists...weird)

Five players that teams are trying to move up to get:

Mark Sanchez
Andre Smith
Michael Oher
Brandon Pettigrew
Percy Harvin

So, there you have it. There may be some changes going on right before the draft, and I will update this as such, but for right now, this is how I see it all going down. Of course I have to work today, a day where the draft is on and the Sox are playing the Yankees (which always seems to happen on the weekend of the draft for some reason). However, that will be the last of my complaining. Let's face it, I need money, I want to buy a condo/house in three months...you gotta do what you gotta do. So, again, I hope everyone has a great draft day. I'll be thinking about everyone at work (okay I swear that's the last time I'll mention that). Cheers everyone. Peace.

~Mell-o

The Days Are Closing In (Draft Buzz)...

2009-04-23T11:38:00.013-04:00

"But the stone that the builder refuse
Shall be the head cornerstone."

So it's Thursday, and we're two days away from the commencement of the 2009 NFL Draft. Of course the good people of the NFL decided to schedule the draft at 4:00 this year, meaning that I will see approximately one half hour of the first round before I have to go to work. If we were on the old schedule (when it started at 12), I could have seen the whole first round...so...yeah. Basically the point of that was just saying that there won't be a draft diary...again. This is what happens when you are in need of money. In any event, I'm taking my practice test for the MTEL (Massachusetts Tests for Educator Licensure) tomorrow, so my thinking is that I would at least fill you in on some of the draft buzz going arounf, and with some luck, hopefully I'll be able to put up a final mock before the draft starts on Saturday...

Here is what is going on:

1. Detroit:

Carlos Monarrez of The Detroit Free Press wrote a column about how teams are better served in signing the #1 overall pick before the draft. This, of course, is relevant due to the latest news regarding the Lions trying to have a contract in place with Matthew Stafford before the draft begins.

2. St. Louis:

Bernie Miklasz of stltoday.com wrote an interesting piece about how the Rams last year, when they picked #2 overall, actually had Matt Ryan and Glenn Dorsey ranked higher than their eventual pick, Chris Long, and that the Rams' management switched up their board at the last moment to take the "safe" pick. If the Rams subscribe to this theory again, expect Jason Smith or Eugene Monroe to be off the board at #2.
Jim Thomas of stltoday.com shared parts of an interview he conducted with Jason Smith, and talked about how the Rams have not yet tipped their hand, at least to Smith, about which way they are leaning to at #2, whether it be Smith or Monroe.

3. Kansas City:

Kent Babb of The Kansas City Star brought up an interesting point about Aaron Curry, which was along the lines of the fact that despite everyone believing that Curry is the #1 guy in the draft, and the two teams ahead of KC, who also need help at linebacker, are likely not to go with Curry. My counterpoint to this would be that Babb says that the linebacker need is not glaring because of the additions of Mike Vrabel and Zach Thomas, to which I would reply "really?" Despite the Chiefs getting those two guys, they can still draft Curry and feel good about it because they are filling a need.
Babb also did a piece about what it will be like for Scott Pioli and Todd Haley in their first draft together. This draft is definitely going to fall squarely on shoulders of Pioli with Haley not having as much "war room" experience as Pioli. They did work together with the Jets way back when, but both were not at very high levels at that time.

4. Seattle:

Danny O'Neil of The Seattle Times wrote about the on-going draft buzz of the Seahawks taking Mark Sanchez at #4. O'Neil also brings up the possibility that Denver (picks #12 & #19) and Washington (pick #13) could be in the mix to trade up into #4 to take Sanchez.
Steve Kelly of the Times wrote a piece about Tim Ruskell, Seattle's GM, and about how this draft "will define him" as a GM. Kelly applauds Ruskell's ability to find talent deep in the draft (Ronde Barber in Tampa most notably)

5. Cleveland:

The Cleveland Plain-Dealer cites an article by Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News which all but kills the rumored Braylon Edwards trade to New York. This is a big story because it could greatly alter what the Browns could be thinking about at #5 considering a lot of recent mocks have Michael Crabtree going here.
Adding to the movement of Crabtree perhaps not going at #5 is Tony Grossi's article about how the Browns scheduled workouts with Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, and Mohamed Massaquoi in the last week, meaning that they could be opting to take a receiver in the beginning part of the second round instead of taking Crabtree, who Grossi writes as having a "world-revolves-around-me attitude."

6. Cincinnati:

Joe Reedy of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports on Marvin Lewis' pre-draft press conference, where he made it clear that Chad Johnson, or I guess it's Chad Ochocinco now, will not be moved. The Bengals, even if they don't move Chad, could be in the market for Michael Crabtree after the loss of T.J. Houshmandzadeh to Seattle.

7. Oakland:

Steve Corkran of The Oakland Tribune chimes in about how Oakland could potentially use the #7 pick to draft one of the four top tackles (the Smiths, Monroe, Oher) despite having signed Khalif Barnes, Erik Pears, and Marcus Johnson in the offseason.
Corkran also breaks down the three biggest needs for the Raiders, which boils down to offensive tackle, wide receiver, and defensive tackle.

8. Jacksonville:

Vito Stellino of jacksonville.com talks about the potential of teams attempting to trade up into the #8 pick if Mark Sanchez falls to that pick. I thought it was interesting that David Garrard, the team's incumbent QB (also a man who possesses a $60 million deal with $18 million of that guaranteed), was told that the Jags would not pick a QB at pick #8, while Gene Smith, the Jags' new GM, says he never told Garrard that.
Gene Frenette argues that the Jags need to draft for value this year. The names he mentions are Crabtree, Sanchez, Andre Smith, and Chris "Beanie" Wells.

9. Green Bay:

Pete Dougherty of The Green Bay Press-Gazette writes about how it seems fairly unlikely that the Pack would draft Crabtree at #9. The reason I put this in there is that there seems to be an alarmingly high number of articles coming out right before the draft about teams who will not take this guy. Not only is there the injury concerns, but now there apparently is a knock on his character.
Rob Demovsky writes about the tight-lipped Ted Thompson, who is entering his fifth season as the Packers' GM. Thompson won't tip his hand as to where he's leaning, but the article did make a note about how the Pack have traded down 13 times and traded up only once in the four drafts Thompson has been a part of.

10. San Francisco:

John Crumpacker of The San Francisco Chronicle comments about how the Niners could potentially take a QB, but that if they did go with Sanchez, if for whatever reason he's still available, or Josh Freeman, they would likely be riding the bench in favor of Shaun Hill, or perhaps Alex Smith, who San Fran chose #1 overall three years ago.
Crumpacker also comments on the status of the Niners' backfield and that San Fran should consider getting someone to help Frank Gore, who could be wearing down a la LaDanian Tomlinson. Crumpacker says the Niners may not go RB at #10, but that in the second round, they could be looking at UConn's Donald Brown.
In terms of positions the Niners will probably be heading towards at #10, Crumpacker highlights offensive tackles, defensive ends, and outside linebackers.

11. Buffalo:

Allen Wilson of The Buffalo News analyzes the recent trade of Jason Peters to the Eagles, and how, with either the #11 or #28 pick, the Bills need to address their offensive line, and more specifically, left tackle.

12. Denver:

Mike Klis of The Denver Post writes about how the Broncos need defensive help, and that with the transition from the 4-3 to the 3-4, Denver will be looking for a nose tackle or a "five-technique" defensive end. Kils poses the question of whether the Broncos will go with B.J. Raji or Tyson Jackson.

13. Washington:

Jason Reid of The Washington Post offers up the possibility of the 'Skins trading up in the draft and taking Mark Sanchez despite the fact that Washington has just one pick in the first 79 selections.
Jason La Canfora wrote a piece about Texas DE Brian Orakpo, who recently visited the Redskins' personnel last week for a two day visit. Remember, with the release of Jason Taylor, Washington is definitely going to be in the market for an outside pass-rusher. Not sure if Orakpo will be around at #13, but if he does slip, I don't think he gets any further than this.

14. New Orleans:

John DeShazier of The Times-Picayune writes about Pierre Thomas, and that with all the speculation of Chris "Beanie" Wells going to the Saints at #14, New Orleans may be overlooking Thomas, who DeShazier argues could potentially be a featured back along with Reggie Bush.
Mike Triplett was chosen as the Saints' representative in the Sporting News' "beat writers' mock draft." Triplett chose Malcolm Jenkins, corner from Ohio State.

15. Houston:

John McClain of The Houston Chronicle talks about what the Texans are in need of, which includes a runner to compliment, a hybrid O-Lineman who can play center and guard, outside linebacker, defensive end, and a safety. Also, McClain believes that at some point in the draft, the Texans will draft a cornerback in order to perhaps find a replacement for the University of South Carolina's own Dunta Robinson, who was less than thrilled to be franchised for this season.

16. San Diego:

Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes about the Chargers' team needs, which includes defensive end, offensive tackle, running back, safety, receiver, and inside linebacker. It's funny how Acee kicks off the column with "this is no longer seen as the loaded roster it was accepted to be for a few years," and then GM A.J. Smith is quoted as saying the Chargers "don't have a lot of starting positions open" This coming from the GM of a team that nearly missed the playoffs had it not been for a monumental Denver collapse.

17. New York Jets:

Gary Myers of The Daily News writes about how the Jets are yet another team who will be looking to move up to get Mark Sanchez. If Sanchez falls past Seattle at #4, it could turn into an all-out bidding war to move up. If you're a team like Cleveland or Jacksonville, you have to be loving all of this.
Outside of the ongoing talks about Sanchez, Rich Cimni writes about how Brandon Pettigrew, the tight end for Oklahoma State, could end up being on the Jets' radar at #17 if Rex Ryan and Co. opt to stay put.

18. Denver:

Lindsay Jones of The Denver Post highlights the three Southern Cal linebackers who are likely to all go in the first round, with the Broncos potentially taking one of the three at pick #18.

19. Tampa Bay:

Joe Henderson of The Tampa Tribune writes about why the Bucs should not take wide receiver Percy Harvin from Florida, citing Harvin's positive test at the combine, his poor wonderlic score (12 out of 50), and his inability to stay healthy.

20. Detroit:

Nicholas Cotsonika of The Detroit Free Press filed a report on how the Lions could use both of their first round picks on offense.

21. Philadelphia:

Bob Brookover of The Philadelphia Inquirer wonders about the possibility of the Eagles perhaps trading the 21st pick in a deal involving Braylon Edwards, Anquan Boldin, or Chad Ochocinco. I'm not sure if this is entirely accurate, but this could be the first time in draft history where a team went into the offseason with two first round picks, and then proceeded to trade them both away before the draft even started.

22. Minnesota:

While folks in Tampa may not be very high on Percy Harvin, a report from Judd Zulgad of The Star Tribune has head coach Brad Childress down in Gainesville meeting with the former Gator receiver, and says the Vikings "are extremely serious" about taking Harvin at 22.

23. New England:

Mike Reiss of The Boston Globe takes a look at the "hybrid" type of linemen appearing in this year's group of prospects. What's fascinating is that there are more higher-ranked potential draftees that can play D-Line and linebacker (Orakpo, Ayers, Maybin, Matthews, English, Sintim, Barwin) than guys who are just traditional linebackers (Cushing, Maualuga, Laurinaitis).

24. Atlanta:

Mark Bradley of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes about the Falcons' new tight end, Tony Gonzalez. Obviously, this totally flips the Falcons' needs. I had them taking Brandon Pettigrew, and now with him out of the picture, Bradley mentions two defensive tackles: Peria Jerry and Evander "Ziggy" Hood.

25. Miami:

Jeff Darlington of The Miami Herald suggests that Jason Taylor's potential return could hinge on what the Dolphins do at pick #25. If they pass on an outside linebacker (Clay Matthews was mentioned), and go with a defensive back, it may speak volumes as to what the level of interest is to bring Taylor back. Darlington also mentions Matthews' pedigree and special teams abilities.

26. Baltimore:

Jamison Hensley of The Baltimore Sun writes about how the Ravens should strongly consider taking a defensive back in the first round, and mentions Vontae Davis, corner from Illinois. Eric DeCosta, the Ravens' director of player personnel, is quoted as saying "I think corners are like pitchers in baseball - you can never have enough."

27. Indianapolis:

Mike Chappell of The Indianapolis Star writes about how Indy's preference when using a late first-rounder, which has happened quite frequently in the last decade, has been to take the best player available. Chappell also lists the Colts' biggest needs, which are D-Tackle, receiver, running back, O-Tackle, and punter.

28. Buffalo:

Chris Brown, who is the lead writer for the Buffalo Bills' website, says that it is entirely possible that the Bills go for a D-Tackle at 11, which would be B.J. Raji, or at 28, which would likely be Peria Jerry or Ziggy Hood.

29. New York Giants:

Paul Schwartz of The New York Post submits an interesting piece about Hakeem Nicks' ongoing weight issue (he gained fourteen pounds since the combine...which was two months ago). Nicks could potentially be falling, which would work out nicely for the Giants, who desperately need a big receiver to replace Plaxico Burress.

30. Tennessee:

Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean writes about how the Titans could very well be in the Braylon/Anquan/Ochocinco derby, potentially dangling the #30 pick out there. Drew Bennett, a former Titan who now plays in St. Louis, could be a potential post-draft move. In an earlier column, Wyatt writes about how Kerry Collins has been somewhat vocal about his interest in the Titans getting another receiver via the draft or trade.
Another interesting bit was what players on the team think about what their team could do. Michael Griffin likes Alphonso Smith, corner from Wake Forest. Vincent Fuller likes Percy Harvin, and Chris Sanders likes Harvin and Darrius Hayward-Bey, receiver from Maryland.

31. Arizona:

Kent Somers of The Arizona Republic thinks the Cardinals should think about a linebacker or a tight end at pick #31. Given the latest news about the Falcons getting Tony Gonzalez, there remains a possibility that Pettigrew slips to the bottom of the first round.

32. Pittsburgh:

Ed Bouchette of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette looks over the history of Steelers drafts, and is under the impression that there is no way the Steelers will go with a defensive lineman at #32.
The Gazette also compiled a list of needs for all of the teams in the league. For the Steelers, they list offensive line, defensive line, and cornerback.

So, that is what is going on right now. Really, the draft may not start until we hit pick #4, and then the drama may unfold. Basically all of the GMs are pretty much tight-lipped at this point, but all you really have to do is take a look at team rosters, look at a team's draft history (or better yet, the history of the guy "running the draft," and yes, I am talking about you, Al Davis), and find out where the personnel guys are going to see prospects. When I say "going," that means going to pro days or just visiting players. I wouldn't read so much into prospects going to a team's HQs. Trust me, I have seen enough Patriots drafts to basically start crossing off guys who make a pre-draft visit to New England (which, unfortunately, probably rules out Connor Barwin becoming a Patriot). So, hopefully, I will get a mock draft going right before the draft on Saturday. It will be interesting to see the kind of buzz the first round will generate given its later start time. I think it definitely helps out the west coast markets because their fans don't have to get up at 9 AM to see who the first pick is. Now, it's at a moderate 1:00 start. I think there will be a ton of action in the late rounds and, outside of Mark Sanchez, not a whole lot in the top 10. The end of the first round is where the fireworks will start happening though. For those of you who are able to watch it on Saturday, 1) I hate you in a somewhat-jokingly manner, and 2) Have fun, bring some cocktails, and wear a jersey, because not too often is it acceptable to be wearing a jersey out around the town in April (actually, it's probably not acceptable at all, but with my rather loose dress code, I say go for it).

Celts are on tonight. It will be very interesting to see how they react to Leon Powe going down. It's bad enough to play without KG, but now Powe is out too? I am not liking the situation right now. In any event, it should be fun, and at the least bit filled with incredibly anxious moments. I still think the Celts eventually will find that gear that the Bulls don't necessarily have right now (but very well could obtain as this series progresses), and I still see the C's winning in 6.

The Bruins finished off the Canadiens last night in surprisingly easy fashion, coasting to a 4-1 victory. If it's any consolation to Canada, they still do have the Canucks, who also won in four straight games, knocking the Blues out on Tuesday night. I'm telling you, you have to go back at least 15 or so years, basically whenever the B's played the Gretzky-led Oilers in the Stanley Cup Finals, or when the B's took on Pittsburgh in those epic series of the early 90s, to find a team that had this good of a chance to win the Cup as the B's have right now. They are banging on all cylinders, and hopefully, the Penguins and Flyers will beat each other up a bunch before making their way to Boston for round two. Remember, and this is especially true if San Jose gets bounced by Anaheim (Ducks are up 2-1 in that series), the road to the Stanley Cup is most likely going through Boston. Having home ice advantage is a huge deal for the B's. This town is so starved for a Bruins playoff run that the amplitude of the crowd noise is only going to become more deafening with each round. Boston is officially back to being a hockey town, and it sure does feel good.

Okay, that's about all that I have for you. Be sure to check in right before the draft when I throw up my final mock draft. Until then, take care everyone. Peace.

~Mell-o

2009 NFL Mock Draft 3.0

2009-04-19T09:07:00.006-04:00

"I take it upon myself to handle mine."

So now the pieces are starting to fall into place. Since the last time I was talking mock drafts, two first round picks have been moved in two separate deals (Cutler to Chicago, Peters to Philly). So, the team needs are becoming more concrete. With the draft just one week away, here is my third mock draft:

1. Detroit- Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia: For whatever reason, the Lions could not pull off a Jay Cutler trade, and instead, they are now going to be playing against him twice a season. It was simply baffling to me that Detroit could not get any kind of deal done. If Stafford doesn't pan out, and again, I don't think he will, then the Lions are handcuffing themselves for six years and $35 million guaranteed money for a QB who might make Lions' fans reminiscent of another QB bust (Joey Harrington).

2. St. Louis- Jason Smith, OT, Baylor: For many weeks, the talk was that Eugene Monroe would be the guy going to the Rams. However, as the pro days have come and gone, and a team like the Rams have had more time to evaluate the talent on the board, it has become clear that the Rams, if they stay at #2, cannot afford to pass on Smith. He is the unanimous #1 tackle on the board.

3. Kansas City- Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest: This is almost too easy, which really makes me wonder, especially with Pioli at the helm now. You really never know what you are going to get with a Pioli draft. I will say this: If teams are going to trade into the top 5, they are trading up to get either Curry, or the guy going at #4...

4. Seattle- Mark Sanchez, QB, Southern Cal: I'm officially on board with the Seahawks going QB here. There are obvious question marks concerning Matt Hasselbeck's health, and despite having a nice run towards the end of the season, Seneca Wallace is not the long-term answer. Sanchez has been holding steady as a top 10 QB. Again, the 'Hawks could go for the offensive tackle, but right now, I have them taking Sanchez.

5. Cleveland- Brian Orakpo, DE/LB, Texas: I'm sticking with Orakpo here because I think Mangini is very enticed by the hybrid kind of defensive end. Remember last year, he took Vernon Gholston sixth overall, and while Gholston hasn't quite panned out yet, the Jets were huge on him going into the draft, and I feel like that kind of thinking will carry over to Cleveland. If Braylon Edwards does end up getting traded (Giants maybe?), then I see Crabtree going here. If all things stay the same, I think the Browns will focus on defense.

6. Cincinnati- Andre Smith, OT, Alabama: You have to wonder when the Bengals fans are going to start revolting kind of like the Portland fans did during the "Jailblazer" era. If this pick actually goes through, the Bengals are positioning themselves to be one of the all-time bad character teams in the history of sports.

7. Oakland- Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri: So this is kind of a surprise here, but then again, it's the Raiders...don't be surprised by anything they might do. My thinking here is that the Raiders will be looking for the speed aspect that Maclin brings. With Crabtree's foot still somewhat of a question mark, the Raiders will pass on him and take a guy who not only will be a very functional receiver, but also could factor into the return game (Johnnie Lee Higgins is already a great return man, but he may be counted on to be the #1 receiver this year, meaning the Raiders may limit the amount of returns he gets).

8. Jacksonville- Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia: It looks like the Jags are very close to acquiring Torry Holt, and while that will not completely eliminate the need for a receiver, it definitely lessens the burden they may have been feeling to fill the spot with the eighth pick. The Jags already let their starting left tackle walk (Khalif Barnes, who signed with Oakland), and don't appear to have anyone to fill the spot in. Also, considering the recent bad luck the Jags have had with receivers in the first round (Matt Jones and Reggie Williams), you would think they would go anti-Detroit and stray away from taking a receiver here.

9. Green Bay- B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College: There is still a bit of uncertainty about whether or not Raji actually tested positive at the combine. I don't really understand the confusion. It's pretty much a black and white issue. He either did or he didn't...what's the problem? In any event, because you're supposedly innocent until proven guilty, and because I'm a gigantic homer, I'm going to just assume that it's all a hoax, kind of like Vince Young's wonderlic test.

10. San Francisco- Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech: I'm going to stand pat with this pick as well. If you're the Niners, how can you really pass on Crabtree at 10? Before his injury, he was one of the options to go #1 overall to Detroit. If they are convinced that his injury will not slow him down in '09, then I don't think San Fran can afford to let him get away.

11. Buffalo- Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss: With the Jason Peters trade, immediately left tackle becomes one of the biggest needs for the Bills. When you trade a Pro Bowl-caliber tackle, you are basically sending a message that "we are totally confident that we can find a similar type player in the first round who can step in from Day 1." I think Oher is the recipient of bad luck, going in a draft where tackle is the deepest position by far in the first round. Most other years, he's a top 5 pick.

12. Denver- Everette Brown, DE/LB, Florida State: There are two schools of thought as to what the Broncos are going to do with their two first-rounders. They could address the defense, which was just dreadful last year, with both picks, or they could go quarterback with either Josh Freeman, or package picks to move up to take Mark Sanchez. For right now, I think they will go defense with both picks, and ride out Kyle Orton as the starting QB (just saying that is scary...I can't even imagine what's going on in Denver right now).

13. Washington- Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee: I think Washington is hoping that one of the top four tackles falls to them at 13, but in this mock, all four are off the board at this point. So, the 'Skins will look to sure up the end position. With Jason Taylor gone, and the health of Phillip Daniels up in the air, Washington has a glaring hole opposite of Andre Carter on the line.

14. New Orleans- Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB, Ohio State: I never really even thought about running back here, and then I started looking at other mocks, and re-evaluating the Saints' backfield. New Orleans has Reggie Bush, and then after that, it seems like they have an ever-changing rotation of backs like Pierre Thomas and Aaron Stecker following. The thing about Bush is that he's an explosive playmaker, but he's simply not an every-down kind of back. So, picking a running back in the first round actually makes a lot of sense.

15. Houston- Clay Matthews, LB, Southern Cal: What I hear coming out of Houston is that they are looking at two players here: Matthews and Malcolm Jenkins. Right now, the read is that they will be going linebacker, so from everything I can gather, they have Matthews #1 on the board at linebacker after Curry.

16. San Diego- Rey Maualuga, LB, Southern Cal: I seem to recall the Chargers having another Samoan inside linebacker from Southern Cal back in the day (Seau)...and I think that worked out pretty well.

17. New York Jets- Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State: The Jets are another team that really could have benefited from a Jay Cutler deal. It really puzzles me that the Bears were able to pull that deal off. It's not like they were set at QB by any means, but they at least had two guys who have played at a decent level in the pros (Orton and Grossman). The Lions and the Jets have no one. Am I supposed to believe that the Jets can seriously contend for a playoff spot with Kellen Clemens calling the plays? This is a tentative pick for me because I just can't see the Jets entering next season with Clemens and that's it. So, they either go QB, or they use a pick in the second or third round (Nate Davis? Rhett Bomar? Stephen McGee?) to add some depth.

18. Denver- Brian Cushing, LB, Southern Cal: Again, I think the Broncos double-down on defense. Cushing gives them some linebacker depth, which they have none of, and was made evident last year when D.J. Williams was hurt.

19. Tampa Bay- Aaron Maybin, DE/LB, Penn State: From the start, everyone had the Bucs taking Freeman here. However, it's looking like the Bucs may have to trade up into the top 15 to grab Freeman (Washington at 13 is an ideal candidate). If they stay at 19, Maybin is not the worst consolation prize. The Bucs basically released their entire linebacking core, so this would address a need for sure.

20. Detroit- Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State: I think the reason Jenkins is falling is because no one knows exactly what to make of him. Can he play corner at an elite level, or does he fit the mold of a safety more? In any event, the Lions need everything, so what they do here is take the best player available, and then figure out how he will fit into the system.

21. Philadelphia- Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia: With Buckhalter going to Denver, the Eagles are in need of giving some help for Brian Westbrook. It's also an encouraging sign about Moreno that he was able to catch balls more fluently out of the backfield this year (he previously had not had a receiving TD until this year). If Moreno's game continues to evolve, he could step in right from the start and be a comparable #2 back.

22. Minnesota- Max Unger, C, Oregon: It appears now that the Vikings will not be screwing around in terms of finding a replacement for Matt Birk. While they could go receiver here, I think they stay on the offensive line here. I like Unger, Ebir Britton, or Alex Mack going here. I think as we get closer to the draft, I'll be able to get a better read on this one.

23. New England- Larry English, DE/LB, Northern Illinois: Despite a lot of people throwing a ton of weight on the fact that Belichick attended the UConn pro day in person (Mel Kiper has Donald Brown here, others, like Mike Mayock on NFL Network, have Darius Butler here), I still think the Pats have almost no choice but to get a playmaking pass-rusher here. If you watched one, maybe two Pats games last year, you would be able to realize just how awful the pass rush was last year.

Sorry to break away from the draft for a little bit, but I do have to mention something real quick. On Tuesday, the NFL schedules were announced, and the CBS Scene at Patriot Place was having a little shindig that included a raffle for two tickets to the home opener on Monday Night Football against Buffalo (which, not going to lie, is the only reason I went). Also, NFL Network cameras were there, Bob Kraft was there, etc. Anyway, I ran into Brian Lowe there. For those of you who do not know who that is, he is the co-anchor of "Patriots Today," a daily show that patriots.com puts together. Anyway, being the pesky draftnik that I am, I couldn't help but ask him some questions about the draft.

Basically, Brian was in agreement with me in saying that the Pats should go defense in the first round. Now, the position may not be linebacker, but in running down the players that we both thought the Pats would go for there (Clay Matthews and Larry English most notably), it seems like if the Pats can get a hybrid kind of outside player, like they have with Adalius Thomas, then they would grab him at 23.

I was surprised at the fact that Brian was not very big on Aaron Maybin, who I have off the board at this point. I think he shared the same concerns as a lot of people have about Julius Peppers, or any linebacker they could potentially take here, which are the covering abilities of the linebacker they get. Peppers is a great pass-rusher, but if he were to play OLB in the 3-4, it would require him to be able to drop back into coverage. Maybin fits the Peppers mold in that he is very good at getting to the QB, but his coverage skills are a question mark.

The next topic we discussed was the idea that it was almost an impossibility that the Pats would keep all three of their second round picks. So, do they trade up, or trade out of the picks? When we recalled some of the instances the Pats moved up the board (Bethel Johnson in '03, Chad Jackson in '06), we quickly realized two things: 1) The Pats are not good going up the board, and 2.) They do not draft receivers very well. Outside of Deion Branch and David Givens, the Pats have really had no luck at drafting receivers (I was looking at a column in...I want to say the Sun-Chronicle...where they outlined the ten biggest draft busts of the Belichick era, and like five of them were receivers). So, the thought went back to trading out of the second and grabbing a first for next year. To do this, it would require that they give up either #34, which of course was the Cassel/Vrabel compensation, or #47, which they got from San Diego last year, to pull this off. A couple of issues arise with this though. The 34th pick is incredibly valuable this year, but the Pats really could use that pick to address even more of their defensive needs (we discussed Alphonso Smith, Darius Butler, Connor Barwin, Louis Delmas, and if they're lucky, Vontae Davis here).

Then, with the 47th pick, the talks immediately went to Pat White, who is probably the most intriguing prospect in the entire draft. I think many on the inside are in consensus in saying that White is not going to be an every-down QB, but what he does bring to the table is a guy you could bring in to run the Wildcat, another receiving option, and an emergency QB. Remember that right now, the Pats have Brady, Kevin O'Connell, Matt Gutierrez...and that's pretty much it. I'm not sure if the Pats have the right personnel to run a Wildcat though. The running backs they do have right now are bruisers, whereas the Wildcat requires more of a finesse style. I'm not as huge on White coming here as others are, but still, it remains a very interesting possibility.

The last question I has for Brian was who does he think is a guy, regardless of what round he is supposedly going to go in, would be able to make the transition from a college system to the Patriots' system the best. Three names that came up were English, Barwin, and Clint Sintim. I thought Sintim was a great choice, and I was in total agreement with Brian on that. Sintim played at UVA, and the Wahoos are one of the few college teams that implements a 3-4 formation in their defense. So, I would say to keep an eye out for Sintim when these second-rounders start coming up.

...and now, back to the draft...

24. Atlanta- Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State: If Philly passes on Pettigrew at 21, which is a real possibility because they now only have one first round pick, then Pettigrew is a slam dunk to land with the Falcons. Again, the focus should continue to be getting help for Matty Ice, and Pettigrew is easily the best tight end in this year's draft.

25. Miami- Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland: While I originally was thinking defensive back here, I have been reading about Miami going cross-country working out every receiver outside of the Crabtree/Maclin pairing that could fall to the end of the first round. Bey continues to be the third rated receiver on the board, so he goes off here to the Dolphins.

26. Baltimore- Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina: I know that the Ravens need help at cornerback, but what was an even more glaring weakness watching them in the playoffs, and especially the AFC Championship against Pittsburgh, was that Baltimore simply does not have a big possession receiver. Mark Clayton has not panned out the way they thought he would. I think outside of Crabtree, Nicks will have the biggest immediate impact on whatever team he ends up on.

27. Indianapolis- Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss: Well, the Colts literally have no one playing defensive tackle for them right now, so this one becomes fairly easy. Still, you can never go against the Colts taking a receiver in the first round (Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez).

28. Buffalo- Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU: So this all kind of works out for the Bills. They trade away their left tackle, but then draft Oher, and now, they get a top-5 DE as well. Not bad at all. I am between Jackson and Michael Johnson, who I had going to Buffalo in the last version at #11.

29. New York Giants- Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers: The G-Men cut Plax, meaning that their receiving corps consists of Steve Smith, Amani Toomer, Mario Mannigham, and Domenik Hixon, and we all saw how that went against Philly in the divisional round last year. Britt is a playmaking receiver. The knock on him is his character, so it remains to be seen if that is going to keep him out of the first round. If it does, I like Percy Harvin here instead.

30. Tennessee- Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois: Again, another guy with the whole "character issue" thing going against him. However, if the Titans do take a risk, they are getting a top-15 talent at the end of the first round. The Titans have really been able to build up a nice secondary through the draft, and this would be another piece that could put them even closer to contending for the AFC crown.

31. Arizona- Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut: I think Brown sneaks into the first round because of the on-going saga going on in Arizona with Edge and the ineffectiveness of Tim Hightower. They definitely have other needs, but the running game, which was surprisingly effective in the Super Bowl run last year, still needs a boost.

32. Pittsburgh- Alex Mack, C, California: No matter what spot on the line the Steelers choose to fill here, I think it's safe to say that the Steelers almost have to go with an offensive lineman here. Pittsburgh was lucky Santonio Holmes has a long reach, otherwise, the talk would have been about the O-Line getting run over throughout the playoffs.

So, there is version number three. I will come as close to a 100% guarantee as I can in saying that there will be at least one more version up before Saturday. That's all for now. I hope all the kids out there have a good April Vacation, and also, an early happy Patriots' Day to everyone out there. This year, Patriots' Day falls on April 20th...Marathon Day, 11:00 Sox game, Celts and Bruins that night...4/20...imagine the possibilities. Anyway, take care everyone. Peace.

~Mell-o

NBA Playoff Predictions: Round One

2009-04-16T20:59:00.011-04:00

"Nobody writes them like they used to
So it may as well be me."

Alright, the seeds are set, and it's on to some NBA talk. Anyone who doesn't think April is the best sports month of the year is crazy. I've done an NHL and NBA playoff preview in back-to-back days. It doesn't get much better than that. So, here are my thoughts on the first round (season series in parentheses):

Eastern Conference

(1) Cleveland vs. (8) Detroit (CLE 3-1):

Line: CLE -4000

Detroit is the third worst offensive team in the league in terms of points per game and in threes made. The Pistons do lead the league in defending the three. Cleveland is third in the NBA in threes made per game. The Cavs lead the league in points allowed per game and are second in defensive FG%. Anytime you are in a seven game series, and you have absolutely no favorable matchups, which is what Detroit is looking at, you basically have no chance. Not only do I think Detroit has no chance, but I will be surprised if they even win a game. Joe Dumars totally has egg on his face still from the Billups/Iverson trade debaucle. Sometimes, you really have to wonder what goes through GMs' heads when they make some of these moves. Are they really that more qualified than you or me? I'm not so sure about that.

Pick: Cleveland in 4

(2) Boston vs. (7) Chicago (BOS 2-1):

Line: BOS -600

It's bad enough that the Celts will be without KG for likely the duration of the playoffs, but now they get easily the toughest draw of all the higher seeds in the East with the Bulls. Sure, the Bulls have struggled lately, but they still have the pieces in play that could create some mismatches for the C's. I'm not so sure if you're going to get a better point guard matchup than Rondo vs. Rose. The Bulls also made out like bandits in their deal with Sacramento in mid-February, getting John Salmons and Brad Miller for Andres Nocioni, Drew Gooden, and Michael Ruffin. Miller is going to create some matchup problems for Perk down low, with his ability to hit the 12-14 foot jumpers. This is a real tough series for Boston to start off with, but I believe they will be able to survive based on the play of Leon Powe and Glen Davis. If those two play as well as they are capable of doing, then the C's should be able to win their home games, and then take one in Chicago. However, if the Bulls start dictating the tempo like they did in the last contest on St. Patty's day (which was easily the most confusing basketball game I've ever watched..."wait, I have to root against the green jerseys?...The Celtics aren't wearing green jerseys?...What the...), then the C's could be vulnerable of receiving a quick exit and not even getting close to trying to defend the title. It pains me to say that, but you never know...

Pick: Boston in 6

(3) Orlando vs. (6) Philadelphia (ORL 3-0)

Line: ORL -1000

Philly is the second worst team in three pointers made. Orlando is last in the league in free throw percentage. The Magic are second in threes made and allowed, and third in rebounds and FG% allowed. I definitely have a conspiracy theory about the Cavs blowing a game at home to Philly, thus giving Philly the six seed and the Bulls the seven seed. First of all, the Cavs were 39-1 at home this year, and they were about to break the all-time mark set by the '86 Celtics for best homecourt record. How could they lose to Philly? Simple. They wanted the Celtics to have the absolute toughest road to get to the Eastern Conference Finals where they would inevitably meet. This would explain why the line in the 3-6 game is bigger than the line in the 2-7 game, which is counter-intuitive to the entire seeding process (meaning that, all things considered, the higher the seed, the easier the first round opponent...at least in theory). In any event, this is a series like the Cavs/Pistons series in which I would be surprised if the lower-seeded team won a game. Orlando dominates the Sixers in literally every facet of the game. I guess the one concern would be the health of Lewis and Turkoglu, but even then I can't see Philly winning a game.

Pick: Orlando in 4

(4) Atlanta vs. (5) Miami (ATL 3-1)

Line: ATL -145

Miami is the third worst rebounding team in the league. Atlanta has the third worst FT%. This is going to be an interesting series because of these two totally different philosophies as to how to win a game. Atlanta uses a team dynamic built around Bibby, Horford, Johnson, and Josh Smith, whereas Miami uses the D-Wade dynamic, basically giving him the ball, and hoping for the best. What's funny is that both styles have worked this season. While it is not a winning formula to get deep in the postseason, I honestly think that Wade will be enough for the Heat to sneak out a win in Atlanta in the first two games, and then be able to sweep the Hawks at home. Atlanta was great at home last year in the playoffs, but these are different circumstances. The Hawks were playing last postseason in an attempt to prove that they were legit, going seven games with the best team in the NBA. Now, I think they will sleep on Miami, and the Heat will be able to win this in six.

Pick: Miami in 6

Western Conference

(1) Los Angeles vs. (8) Utah (LAL 2-1)

Line: LAL -2500

Utah is third in the league in FG%. The Lakers led the league in rebounding and were the third in scoring. Of course it is a foregone conclusion that the Lakers will reach the NBA Finals. In fact, this is probably the first time since the Bird/Magic days where there were two teams that literally everyone has making the finals, and not only that, but no one had any conceivable way that it would not happen. The Cavs were benfeciaries of the KG injury, and the Lakers got the word about Manu Ginobili weeks ago. Utah is a team that can basically be characterized as "not looking right." You hear this about almost every guy on that team. Carlos Boozer "doesn't look right," Andrei Kirilenko "doesn't look right," and so on and so on.

Pick: Los Angeles in 4

(2) Denver vs. (7) New Orleans (Tied 2-2)

Line: DEN -225

Denver has the sixth best scoring offense. New Orleans has the fifth best overall defense. This series really comes down to the health of Tyson Chandler. If the Hornets can get Chandler at even 80%, then the Nuggets really don't have much of a chance. The Nuggets' best thing going for them is Chauncey Billups, who will likely be neutralized by Chris Paul. 'Melo's my man, but up to this point, he has not been able to really take over a game like he probably should (I realize Sports Guy already set that precedent up, but it is true, so sorry for the repeat). I think the Hornets have a real good shot of making a run due to the "Power of 3" theory. With Paul, Chandler, and David West, the Hornets are the sleepers of the NBA Playoffs this year. Also, did I mention a certain James Posey plays for them?

Pick: New Orleans in 6

(3) San Antonio vs. (6) Dallas (Tied 2-2)

Line: SA -145

Dallas is second in the league in FT% and second in defensive FT%. San Antonio was second in the league in scoring defense and in the threes allowed. I have to say that I absolutely hate the Spurs in the playoffs this year. They are old, and they are incredibly banged up. Meanwhile, I like Dallas for two reasons: 1) They have Jason Kidd, who is perhaps the most underrated guard of the last twenty years, and yes, I'm dead serious about that, and 2) Kidd's backup, Jose Juan Barea, the pride of Northeastern, is this year's X-Factor of the playoffs. When he gets going, the Mavs are an unstoppable force. With Barea and Terry coming off the bench, the Spurs simply don't have the kind of manpower to keep up with the Mavs over a seven-game series.

Pick: Dallas in 6

(4) Portland vs. (5) Houston (HOU 2-1)

Line: POR -140

Houston leads the league in FT% allowed. Portland allows the highest FT% in the league, but also leads the NBA in rebounds per game. This is easily the most intriguing series in the entire first round. To sum up the utter lunacy of the West, we're looking at a 4-5 matchup that features two teams with 53 and 54 wins a piece. Simply amazing. Portland obviously gets the edge in athleticism with Roy, Aldridge, Outlaw, and Fernandez, while Houston has the edge in defense with Artest, Battier, and Yao. My two biggest keys are the guard play by Houston, and Greg Oden for Portland. The Rockets traded "Skip To My Lou" to Orlando in a deadline deal for Kyle Lowry, meaning Aaron Brooks had to step up and play the point. While on paper it appears like that would be a giant leap, his minutes only when up by an average of five minutes a game after the trade, so it's not as though Brooks needed a ton of adjusting to move into the starting spot. Brooks will combine with Lowry and Artest in the backcourt. Greg Oden could be the story of the playoffs (outside of the Cleveland/LA overtones). If he plays to his potential, the Blazers could win this series, then move onto the Lakers and maybe scare them a little bit. However, if Oden cannot adjust to the pace of the playoffs, then Portland will be in big trouble. I'm banking on the latter for Oden.

Pick: Houston in 6

So, we are now up to speed on the NHL and the NBA. I wish I could have gone a little more in-depth on these, but time is actually tight now, which is definitely a good thing. Don't get me wrong, I love having free time, but there's a fine line between free time and being a bum, and I was riding dangerously close to slipping into the bum category, but now I think I have rebounded back into normalcy. So, hope you enjoy your weekend. Take care. Peace.

~Mell-o

NHL Playoff Predictions: Round One

2009-04-15T20:59:00.004-04:00

"This is our decision to live fast and die young.
We've got the vision, now let's have some fun."

Not only do I feel like I owe it to both you the reader and myself to do a hockey column, but I'm kind of tired looking at my NCAA final prediction...yeah that didn't really go according to plan. So, it's taken me a week to get over that, and here we are. Also, with the hockey column will come an NBA column which I will produce as soon as the final seeds are announced. So, without anymore hesitation, here are my picks for round one of the NHL playoffs (season series in parentheses).

Eastern Conference:

(1) Boston vs. (8) Montreal (BOS 5-1):

Line: BOS -380

Okay, not so many stats here. This has "coke machine" theory written all over it. I will be absolutely shocked if the B's don't win in 6 or 7. I'm not so huge on them on the road, but I don't see any way that the Habs can beat the Bruins at the Garden. This is kind of like what happened with the Celts against Atlanta and Cleveland, where it seems like they were two entirely different teams on the road vs. the home court. I know that's an NBA analogy, but you have to go with what you know right?

Pick: Boston in 7

(2) Washington vs. (7) New York Rangers (WSH 3-1):

Line: WSH -300

For the rest of the matchups, I will try to bring up some key statistics. The Rangers led the NHL in hits this year. Washington was second on the powerplay, while the Rangers were 29th out of 30. However, the Rangers were first in the NHL on the penalty kill. The Rangers were dreadful as an underdog. When you think about the Caps, you obviously think about the Ovechkin factor. Combine him with Semin, and this team is offensively lethal. The Rangers obviously are a big team, and they can play some D, which could definitely cram the Caps' style. I think the Caps pull this off for two reasons: 1) Despite the Rangers' defensive efficiency, no one can hold down the Caps on offense and 2) The NHL will do everything in its power to keep Ovechkin in the playoffs for as long as humanly possible. This kid is the NHL's calling card, and if he gets bumped in the first round, I can see the ratings plummeting.

Pick: Washington in 6

(3) New Jersey vs. (6) Carolina (CAR 3-1):

Line: NJ -135

Carolina was first in the league with 4.6 power play chances per game, while the Devils were second-to-last in the league in power play chances. Carolina is 8-2 in their last 10, while Jersey is 4-5-1 in their last ten. The Devils were red hot when Brodeur returned, but they seem to be fizzling at the wrong time. If the 'Canes can steal one of the first two in Jersey, then I don't see how the Devils can win in Raleigh.

Pick: Carolina in 6

(4) Pittsburgh vs. (5) Philadelphia (PIT 4-2):

Line: PIT -165

Philly allows the second most power plays per game in the league. The Pens are 11-4 in their last 15 against Philly. This is my style right here. An instate collision of sorts with the Pens and the Flyers. When you look at the numbers, these teams are right next to each other in virtually every statistic. Obviously, you look at Pittsburgh and you think about Malkin and Crosby. With Philly, you're probably going to notice Jeff Carter, who was second in the league in scoring. This is another instance where I think the star power has to prevail though.

Pick: Pittsburgh in 5

Western Conference

(1) San Jose vs. (8) Vancouver (SJ 4-2):

Line: SJ -280

Anaheim allows the third most power plays per game, while San Jose was seond in the league in power play goals per game, and third overall with a man-advantage. This is possibly the worst draw the Sharks could have gotten while occupying the #1 seed. The Canucks are going to be a pesky team here, as indicated by the ridiculously low line. What's interesting is that Vancouver holds the experience card in this matchup. The Sharks have not been this touted for a Cup run in franchise history. I'm not going to do it this round, but I will have the Sharks getting bounced before they reach the conference finals.

Pick: San Jose in 7

(2) Detroit vs. (7) Columbus (Tied 3-3):

Line: DET -550

Columbus is last in the league in power play goals per game, while Detroit is leading the league. Detroit allowed the second fewest shots per game. Columbus was third. This is fascinating because of how huge the line is and the fact that these teams tied the season series. This is Columbus' first ever playoff appearance. There is going to be a major upset in the first round, and this is my pick. Don't forget that just over a month ago, the Blue Jackets served up at beatdown at the Joe, 8-2. Remember this as well: Columbus has the best home-ice advantage in hockey. You heard it here.

Pick: Columbus in 6

(3) Vancouver vs. (6) St. Louis (Tied 2-2)

Line: VAN -230

St. Louis was second-to-last in the league in shots per game. The Blues were third in the league on the penalty kill. Vancouver ranks seventh overall in total defense. This is another series in which I'm thinking the favorite is going to get way more than they can handle. St. Louis has a tremendous mark against teams in the West (20-8-4), and have won five of their last seven on the road. However, the Blues have struggled with the Canucks, going 2-5 in their last seven and 1-5 on the road against Vancouver. Still, the Blues split the series this year, which is convincing enough for me.

Pick: St. Louis in 6

(4) Chicago vs. (5) Calgary (CHI 4-0)

Line: CHI -155

Chicago had the third most power play chances per game. Calgary is ninth in overall scoring. Another thing of note: I love Chicago! I've never actually been to the town (I hear it's lovely, and Ferris Beuller and the Blues Brothers were both good movies based in Chicago), but their hockey team is probably in my "pseudo-like" teams. Of course I have my allegiance to the Boston teams, but in each league, there's always another team that I quietly pull for. Here's the list:

MLB: Red Sox; P-L: Royals
NFL: Patriots; P-L: Redskins
NBA: Celtics; P-L: Trailblazers
NHL: Bruins; P-L: Blackhawks

So, now you know. In any event...love the 'Hawks!

Pick: Chicago in 4

So, not a lot there I know. I'm not going to lie, I don't have as much knowledge about the NHL as I do about most other sports, and what I do know is basically all about the Bruins. Still, I love the NHL playoffs because virtually every game goes down to the wire, and already in the first round, you have a few rivalries (Boston/Montreal, Philly/Pittsburgh) being hatched. Also, it helps that the B's are poised to make a deep run, which doesn't happen very often around here (last Stanley Cup: 1972, last Stanley Cup finals: 1990). Again, the NBA playoff preview will be up soon, and I'm cramming for the NFL Draft, which is in a week and a half! So, plenty more to come. Definitely check out the NHL playoffs though (the highlights are on Hulu, so you don't have any excuses), and I will see everyone later. Peace.

~Mell-o

Bracket Breakdown: National Championship

2009-04-06T17:55:00.002-04:00

"And I think I'm gonna stick around for awhile so you're not alone."

I had to go with a Detroit band for this one (that was the White Stripes in case you were curious). Well, this is it...it really is it for me because the Sox got rained out today (make-up for 4:00 tomorrow). I think it's quite amazing that after the first round, I lost twice the rest of the way. No, this was not my original bracket, but in my round-for-round picks, after round one, I went 28-2. So, I'm pretty stoked about that. Of course all this is meaningless if I don't get tonight's game right. So, with out further ado, here is the final game of the 2008-2009 college basketball season:

9:21: (1) North Carolina vs. (2) Michigan State; Detroit, MI:

If you're Michigan State, it literally will not get any better than this. The crowd on Saturday night was off the charts, and they willed the Spartans to have a rather comfortable win over UConn. I'm really happy the Michigan faithful were able to make it out and support their team. If you thought Saturday was a good showing, wait until tonight. State is attempting to avenge a 35-point loss they had earlier this year to UNC at Ford Field. However, this will be an entirely different game than the one that was played in early December. First, the attendance factor will be in full effect tonight. The first game drew less than 30,000...needless to say, I'm expecting something in the vacinity of 65,000-70,000 tonight. Second, UNC was playing at full strength while State was playing without Suton, who has been a huge contributor in the Spartans' run through the tournament. Third, UNC was rolling on a river, much like they are right now, back in the first game. They were unbeaten, ranked #1 in the country, and just got back Tyler Hansbrough. Meanwhile, State had just got shalacked by Maryland in their previous game, and were obviously reeling from that upset when they took on the Heels.

I know that a lot of what I just said could be viewed as making excuses as to why State got obliterated in the first game, but the fact remains that the two games that will be played against these schools could not be any different. In fact, the only thing that remains the same is where the game was played. Other than that, everything is different.

Okay, so, when picking this game, you obviously have two options, and two pretty compelling reasons to side with either team. First, with State, you are looking at a "team of destiny." They have the homecourt, they have the aura, if you will, of an entire state (minus a few Wolverine fans who are justifiably stubborn) who has put their collective weight behind this team, and they also have something that the Tar Heels cannot boast...a win over not one, but two #1 teams in a row.

With North Carolina, you are looking at a team that could potentiall produce up to four first-round picks in this year's draft. This team stayed together to achieve the ultimate goal of winning a national championship, which is something that Hansbrough and Co. have been projected to do for the last three years, and yet have come up short of the ultimate goal. So, you definitely have a "Coke Machine" theory in place here. Still, maybe it was "Coke Machine" to just get into the finals, and not to actually win the whole thing.

Ultimately, it will come down to how much the Tar Heels can control the tempo versus how physical Michigan State can play UNC not only down low, but also on the perimeter. I was laughing out loud when a sports radio "analyst" was talking about how Michigan State needs to run up and down the floor in order to win. I will say this right now. If this game becomes a track meet, the Spartans are screwed. They have a few guys, most notably Raymar Morgan, who may be able to play at that speed, but when you look at the Heels, their team is basically built to be a run-and-gun team. What's funny is that State actually tried the run-and-gun approach against the Heels the first time around, and we all know how that ended up. True, they were playing without Suton, but still, did their entire philosophy change because their big man was out? Obviously Suton is a great player, but he's not like Hansbrough or Blake Griffin where the offense has to completely retool in their absences.

To me, I just cannot see the Heels winning this game. This is almost at a USA/USSR level without the political implications. Obviously State has a rich tradition in basketball, but it's not nearly as lengthy as the one coming from Tobacco Road. State has the underdog factor, the revenge factor, the "no one believed in us" factor, the homecourt factor, the momentum factor (shared equally with UNC)...I just can't see the Heels cutting down the nets in Detroit. If they are able to pull off a W tonight, I will seriously consider it an upset despite the fact that UNC was a one and State was a two. The spread is at eight right now...I'm really not seeing that.

A blow-by-blow:

First Ten Minutes: State obviously comes out on fire, and they take an early lead. The momentum will stall out at around the five-minute mark, and the Heels will sneak back into the lead after going on a 7 or 8-0 run at around the twelve minute mark.
Second Ten Minutes: Both teams will be going back and forth, much like a heavyweight bout, which it is. The Spartans will be able to edge UNC just enough to take a lead going into the break.
First Ten Minutes (Second Half): Roy Williams, going into the locker room down, knows that if his team doesn't come out in the second half and gain the momentum, then there is no turning back. The Heels once again go on a nice little run to push their lead to five or six. However, they will be getting into foul trouble the entire time due to their aggressiveness at the defensive end.
Final Ten Minutes: The foul trouble eventually catches up with the Heels, and so don't the fans. Due to a series of UNC fouls/turnovers, State will be able to not only catch up on the scoreboard, but the fans will get right back into the game. State will roar back into the lead with about four minutes left. It is at this point when the Heels will almost feel helpless, and we've all had those games. You are pulling for a team, they're out front, and then all of a sudden, something happens, and it feels like a punch to the stomach that you know there is probably no recovery from. This will come in the form of Hansbrough fouling out of his final collegiate game. This, to me, seems like an inevitability. He has waited and waited for this moment, and while I think he will have a big game, he will be too fired up, and he will start making some mental mistakes that puts him and his team in trouble. When Hansbrough fouls out, it's over. For some reason, I think a collective calm will come over the Spartans. They will come to realize that there is much more pressure on the Heels to win this tournament. Win or lose, the entire team will likely be dismantled after this season, so this is the last shot for pretty much all of the UNC starters. Plus, if you tell me that I have a choice between Tom Izzo and Roy Williams to coach the last five minutes of a game, I take Izzo every time. To me, he is probably the best coach in all the land. No one brings more to the table in big games than Izzo. Others may have more championships, but I still take Izzo and his five Final Four appearances. So, I'm going with the home team in the away jerseys tonight.

Original Pick: Memphis, Present Pick: Michigan State

Enjoy the game tonight. No matter who wins, it will likely be a classic. Take care. Go Sox! Peace.

~Mell-o

Bracket Breakdown: Final Four

2009-04-02T21:55:00.004-04:00

"And just to think it all began on an uneventful morn'."

So we are now down to the nitty gritty...the Final Four. Well, my bracket as been completely destroyed, so I really have no rooting interest as far as that is concerned. However, there's definitely going to be two teams that I will be pulling for this weekend (hint: they aren't #1 seeds). Still though, I will at least attempt to give you an nonobjective look into the matchups this weekend.

Saturday, April 4, Detroit, MI:

6:07: (1) Connecticut vs. (2) Michigan State:

Well, there were very few things that I got right this year, but my proclamation that the Spartans would be able to get through the Midwest bracket (i.e. Big 10 country) and make it back home to Detroit was one of my better ones. The Spartans were absolutely dominant against the Cards in the Elite Eight in Indy, and they were able to shut down a team that scored over 100 the round before to 51 points. I'm telling you right now, this is one of those great moments in big-time basketball that my head and my heart are in line with each other. First of all, I do not like UConn whatsoever, and I'm fully aware of how impressive they have been so far in the tournament, and quite frankly, none of that has any effect on me. Also, this is not because of Jim Calhoun, or the recruiting charges, or anything like that. Rather, it has to do with the fact that I forsee the Huskies getting into major foul trouble early on. I have made it clear about my total distaste of Thabeet's game, and I really think that it is all going to fall like a house of cards in this game. State doesn't have as much size as UConn, but they are tenatious enough that even if they fall behind, they have the weapons to get themselves back into it. Okay, and now it is at this point that I have to make a semi-public service announcement...

People Of Michigan:

You have been granted a gift that very rarely comes along. A team from your home state is in the Final Four, which is being held in...your state as well. I understand that the state has been going through a tough time. The motor vehicle industry is falling apart, which happens to be the #1 employer in Michigan. Times are tight right now...I understand. With all that being said, I command you to do anything you possibly can to get to Ford Field this weekend. I cannot even stress how rare of an occasion this is (the last time a team got to the Final Four that was being played in the same state as their campus was 1994 when Duke played at the Charlotte Coliseum). So, I'm begging you, as a pro-Michigan guy and someone who is crazy about upsets, please get out and support your team. This is a team you can rally around. Thank you, and God Bless states that have more than one land mass in them (let's think about this...Michigan, Massachusetts, Hawaii, Florida...they all kick ass...it's not a coincidence I don't think)

Sidenote: When I was watching the Michigan State/Louisville game, they kept flashing to Magic Johnson, which really started getting confusing...because I would see Tom Izzo, and thought "this is what I love about this team," then I saw Magic, and I thought "this is what I hate about this team," and it kept going on and on for the entire game to the point where it started becoming like a slapping match between a good-guy wrestler and a bad-guy wrestler..."yeeeaaaahhhh!"..."booooooooo!"..."yeeeaaaahhhh!"...it was all very much a mind-f.

Original Pick: Memphis, Present Pick: Michigan State

8:47: (1) North Carolina vs. (3) Villanova:

If I have learned anything, and apparently I still haven't quite learned this entirely yet, it's that, at least for this year, you cannot go against Obama...you just can't do it. I mean really, on just about any topic he talks about, going up against him is kind of like spitting in the wind at this point. So, with that being said, he only got one of his Final Four teams correct...and it happens to be the team he has winning it all, which is UNC. Look, I'm pulling for 'Nova strictly because they are the lower-ranked team in the equation, they're a Big East school, and I'm a big Jay Wright guy. However, right now, North Carolina just has too much. They rolled Oklahoma, and they're no slouch. Meanwhile, 'Nova was able to miraculously run their last play uncontested up the court to win at the last second. Some teams are lucky, and they can continue to rely on their luck to get through these tough games, but I think 'Nova has hit their luck quota, and despite how impressive they looked against Pitt, UNC is just going to be an absolute handful this year. Also, consider who plays for the Tar Heels. Isn't there entire team headed to the draft next year? Remember when they won back in '05, and afterwards, everyone just peaced and hit the first round? I'm expecting kind of the same thing happening with this team this year.

Original Pick: Pittsburgh, Present Pick: North Carolina

I know that this has absolutely nothing to do with the tournament, but I do have to throw my two cents in on the Jay Cutler trade to Chicago that happened today. First, if you're Chicago or a Bears fan, you have to be loving this move. I know it's a steep price to pay for one guy (two first rounders and a third), but Cutler is the goods, and the Bears have been looking for a franchise QB basically since I've been alive. The fact that they finally pulled the trigger has to show the fans that this team believes that it can contend for a division title right now. I have to come back to that price tag though...wasn't the proposed deal with Tampa a first and a third? The Bears gave up two ones, a third, and Kyle Orton. Plus, considering Denver was openly shopping Cutler, and knowing how explosive the Cutler-Denver situation was, is there a chance the Bears may have overpaid here? Well...maybe, but the fact that the Bears have a top-10 QB now is just going to help them. The Bears are built to throw the ball down the field already with Rashied Davis and Devin Hester, and they are likely going to add another receiver in the draft. So, I think this is a good move for Chicago, especially if they get Cutler some help.

When I look at the trade from Denver's perspective, I think that they got very good value for Cutler considering the Pats only got the #34 for Cassel. Still though, what is Denver going to do now? Are they all of a sudden in the Mark Sanchez market assuming Stafford is off the board to Detroit at #1? If the Broncos go into the season with Kyle Orton as their #1, they are in big, big trouble. Orton is not a horrible QB, but you have to wonder how he's going to fit in Denver's system. Furthermore, how is Denver going to make the McDaniels short-pass, quick-decision type offense work with the parts they have? This is another team that is obviously built on throwing the ball deep, as was evident by Cutler's gaudy numbers. It's going to be interesting to see how Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal adjust to the new gameplan. In getting back to the positives, the Broncos now situate themselves beautifully with two picks in the top 20, and another first rounder (which at the minimum will be around the 23-25 range) next year. So, I think there were pros and cons for both teams here, which is how a good compromise should go ("have you heard of Henry Clay?"). I am much more interested in Denver now though. With 4,526 yards last year (17th all-time for a season), this is the most yards a QB has thrown for who has been traded the following year. Now they really have no QB, they have a new system, everyone in Denver is going nuts on McDaniels because they all like Cutler...this is all very fascinating. They have almost supplanted the Pats in terms of teams peaking my interest going into the draft.

Speaking of the draft (which is three weeks away...three weeks away!), kind of a troubling story came out today about B.J. Raji, who reportedly failed his combine drug test. The drug was not specified, but I mean...come on man. I'm going to go out on a limb and say it was not of the performance-enhancing variety (which could only mean one thing...wait, what was I talking about?). This is disappointing as a BC supporter because Raji was skyrocketing up draft boards, and some had him as high as going to the Rams at #2. Now, this may drop him out of the top 10 much like Andre Smith's recent theatrics did him in. My hope is that this report is either not true, or it was just pot and not steroids or anything like that. I think this is great that sports is at the point where I'm like "man, I hope he was just smoking weed." That's just priceless.

Alright, back to the kitchen for work tomorrow. I actually had this job three years ago, but I don't believe this any kind of "walk of shame" because a.) they wanted me back, b.) it pays pretty well, and c.) I had an amazing time the first time around, so I'm hopeful that things stay the same (none of the waitresses are there from before...hopefully the new crop is decent because those girls were way...everything (nice/cute/happy/into shift drinks)). So, this may cut down on the amount of time I have to talk to you guys, and it may mean that I don't do a Draft Day Diary, which I've been wanting to do since the last one back in '07, but I keep having to work on Draft Day. By the way, is this a sign of maturity that I can work on Draft Day without totally flipping out? I mean I'm probably not going to be able to get any work done, but isn't it the thought that counts there? Anyway, hope you are well out there. Have a great weekend. Peace.

~Mell-o

Opening Day Countdown

2009-03-30T21:56:00.001-04:00

"You were lost in the silver spoon,
thought I pulled you out in time."

Apparently they are actually going to play baseball in Boston next week. Good luck with that. Today was like 35 degrees with 30 MPH winds and a steady downpour all day long. In other words, totally optimal baseball conditions. In any event, I'm totally stoked for this season. There are so many questions and so much intrigue. I feel like I say this every year, and every season, it ceases to amaze me about the ride that this team takes. I know that baseball is a long season, but really, the Sox start to make their way into the daily routine after about a week. That 7:00 game just works very nicely. You wake up, go to work, come home, have dinner, and then you're ready for the game. It all just kind of falls into place. So, again, I'm extremely excited, and if I do happen to be teaching on Monday and there is a TV that gets NESN present, all bets are off. Who can teach on opening day? That's just lunacy.

Random Prop Bet: Yankees' Winning % without A-Rod +50 vs. with A-Rod...I'm telling you, the last thing a Yankees fan will want to see is Alex Rodriguez donning the pinstripes. Don't say I didn't warn you.

Actually, that just inspired me to create a list:

The Top Ten Prop Bets of the 2009 MLB Season (completely made up):

Bobby Cox's Ejections: +/- 3.5
A.J. Burnett Trip To The DL +/- June 1 (The J.D. Drew DL Trip line has officially been taken off the board due to its absolute inevitability, and also for the fact that he may start the year on the DL anyway...were we suppose to expect more than a game winning grand slam and one really good month for $70 million?)
First Manager To Get Fired +/- July 1 (in addition, who will it be: Cecil Cooper (Astros): 2/1, Jim Leyland (Tigers) 9/2, Clint Hurdle (Rockies): 5/1, Cito Gaston (Blue Jays): 7/1, Dusty Baker (Reds): 10/1, Joe Girardi (Yankees): 12/1)
Major League Best for Home Runs: +/-42.5 HRs
Triple Crown Winner: 100/1; Player Winning Two Legs of the Triple Crown: 7/1
Red Sox Sellout Streak Continuing: 3/1; Not Continuing: 8/1
Combined HRs by Red Sox catchers +4 vs. Matt Wieters' HRs
The Higest Annual Salary of a Player Who Gets Traded Before August 1: +/- $12 million (2009 figures: Magglio Ordonez: $18, Todd Helton: $16.6, Miguel Cabrera: $15, Mark Buehrle: $14, Matt Holliday: $13.5, Jose Guillen: $12, Joe Nathan: $11.25, Carlos Guillen: $10, Brian Giles: $9.7)
Both New York Teams Will Once Again Not Make The Playoffs: 11/1
Total Number of Players Who Will Test Positive, or Have Tests Leaked That They, At One Point, Tested Positive For Any Performance Enhancing Drug: +/- 20

And here's what I'm taking:

Under (I will use the Lethal Weapon "I'm getting to old for this s***" defense)
After June 1 (I have the suspicion that Burnett will really start off on fire, much like I think the Yankees will, but then as soon as A-Rod is healthy again, the wheels will come off the wagon...and Burnett is going to the DL eventually...I mean there's no two ways about it...it's happening)
Before July 1 (If Detroit struggle again, Leyland will be gone real quick; also, keep your eye on the Houston situation, because that team, from all accounts, is going to suck pretty bad this year, so Cooper will also likely be on a short leash)
Over (I think this will barely go over...the best candidates to hit 44, which I think will probably be the mark, are Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Josh Hamilton, and Adam Dunn...by the way, last year's mark was 48 by Ryan Howard, but he and Adam Dunn were the only player to hit 40 or more)
Triple Crown: No, 2/3: Yes (If anyone does actually win all three legs of the Triple Crown, it will be Albert Pujols, but the NL is so loaded with power hitters that I see it hard for Pujols to win the home run title. In the 2/3 bet, I will take Miguel Cabrera (HR/RBI), Josh Hamilton (HR/RBI), Ryan Howard (HR/RBI, which he actually did last year), Ryan Braun (HR/RBI), Pujols (AVG/RBI), and perhaps a dark horse, but Lance Berkman (AVG/RBI)
Not Continuing (This is sad I know, but really, when is the last time you could buy bleacher tickets at face value right now for over half of the Sox' home games?)
Wieters (At the absolute most, a catching platoon of Varitek and Kotteras will hit 17...that's the ceiling. With Wieters, I can see him getting to 20...and that's after he comes up in June. I'm saying right now he's good for at least 15 this year, and honestly, I'm not even sure the Sox' catchers will hit double-digits this year)
Over (I have convinced myself about Holliday, especially if the A's are out of it. Basically all these guys are ripe to be dealt "especially if the (fill in the blank) are out of it." I am absolutely amazed by Detroit's salary figures. Barring some unbelievable turn of events where they are both amazingly good and sell out every game, they are going to have to get rid of at least one of their big-name players)
No (I have absolutely no idea how the Yankees are going to end up even second in the East. Right now, Tampa and Boston are just better than them, and even with all the Yankee additions, are they really going to make that big of a jump in the standings? They gain Teixeira, but they lose Giambi (.247/32/96) and Abreu (.296/20/100), and Teixeira alone cannot make up for that (.308/33/121). The pitching is better, but the bullpen is still awful. So I think the absolute best they could do is second. I don't know where people are getting this "9/5 to win the World Series" stuff. I have already said that the Mets will win at least 90 games this year, and the law of averages simply says that there's no way that they don't get in to the postseason this year. They are 7/5 to win the East, and the NL East has been installed as the 1/2 favorite to land the NL Wild Card)
Over (I have to believe that more names will be leaked off of the A-Rod 2003 report, an entirely different report will come out penning another big name which will entail itself to others, 10-15 will get caught just because they're not smart/rich enough to get around it, or a combination of the three. Whatever the case, I don't think people who try and dig this stuff up will be completely satisfied until every last big league player who has played in the MLB from the years 1988-2008 one way or another get indicted for using something.)

The Celts and the Bruins are rocking and rolling lately. Let's start with the defending NBA Champions (I have no idea how much longer I'll be able to say it, so you'll have to indulge me for at least a few more months on that). The Celtics have been playing without Kevin Garnett for what seems like forever right now, and yet they have managed to stay in the hunt with Cleveland for the best record in the East (although right now, they're actually in third behind Orlando). I think it took a little bit for this to happen, but right now, and what has been true in the last few games, is that everyone is really stepping up their game to account for KG's absence. I know Paul Pierce is fully capable of running the team by himself, but really, when he's surrounded by the talent he has (even without KG, it's still quite a formidable team), he really shouldn't be put in the position where he has to take over ever game. Every once in a while...that's fine, but don't make it a habit. Now, you are looking at a team that is playing really solid at both ends of the court. Of course they are still having some trouble in the low post, but that generally happens when you lose your starting power forward and the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Let's also not forget that the C's have been playing without Leon Powe for the last two weeks, a guy who you could have definitely made an argument for Sixth Man of the Year. Of all the guys on the team, I say Big Baby has made the most surprising impact in the past month or so. I mean this guy is just an animal. Last night, his forehead was basically ripped open, he had to get ten stitches, came back, and was able to put up a double-double (although most of his stats were put up before he had to leave the court). I was a huge advocate of Davis' play ever since he was drafted last year. I thought it was ridiculous how the media was ripping him for his slow start this year, saying that he should stop shooting and didn't possess the toughness needed to make an impact. Then, there was the KG incident, which just gave the critics more ammo. Sure, he wasn't shooting all that great, but that just comes with work, and now that Davis is actually getting some regular minutes, he's proving that he's a competent shooter. He has mastered that 13-foot shot, and that's just tough for another big man to defend against. Also, his defense has been outstanding. I'm just so impressed at how he's responded, because a lot of players have come to Boston and just got lost in the media scrutiny to the point that it totally went to their heads (a certain #5 comes to mind).

The guard play has been off the charts for the C's as well. Of course, when you have a starting backcourt duo consisting of Rondo and Ray Allen, it definitely helps the cause. Not that those two haven't been playing great...they have...but I'm even more impressed with the play of Eddie House and Stephon Marbury. House is as lethal of an outside shooter as you can find in the NBA. It's gotten to the point where it is justifiable for him to shoot any shot within 30 feet, and even if he air-balls it, it's like "yeah, but he'll still make that shot 7 out of 10 times." I think he's on a Ray Allen level with me in that he can just take any outside shot, and if he misses, I don't think twice about if they could have got a better shot...no, that's Eddie House...he's not bashful...when he gets the ball, he's shooting. Marbury was someone who I thought would have a positive impact on the C's because he is very much in the "Randy Moss mode" of being able to set aside ego and individualism for the good of the team and the ultimate goal of winning a championship. Really, outside of an MVP, what has Marbury not done individually for a point guard that's left? Do you realize that he is in the top 15 all-time in assists? Yeah, I was surprised by that too, but it's true. He gets the bad reputation because he's on bad teams and gets frustrated. I love how his "strained" relationship with KG in Minnesota was brought up before he ended up in Boston. He was 21 when they traded him! Of course he's immature. You don't even want to know half the stuff I did or thought about doing when I was 21...it's frightening. In any event, you have a kid, for all intensive purposes, who was brash and didn't really understand the "team" concept, and yes, maybe it took him a bit longer than most players in the league to fully understand that concept, but I keep going back to Moss because it's just a bizarre parallel that these two have created. Both were superstars in the league, fell on rough times, were labelled as having "bad character," then move onto a team completely willing to take the risk for the above-average reward that could come, and both have benefited greatly from their moves. Marbury's timing couldn't have been better. With Tony Allen basically done for the year, Marbury then pushes Eddie House from the backup point guard to backup shooting guard, a role that I think even he will tell you is just much more suited to his game. This is all just coming together very nicely, but still, the C's are going to need to get KG and Leon back for the playoffs, because as well as the C's are playing right now, they're going nowhere without those two guys.

The Bruins, yes, your Northeast Division Champion Bruins, currently hold a seven point advantage over the Caps for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. The Bruins just went through a stretch where they didn't play for almost a week, which I think definitely helped them. Credit does have to go to Claude Juilen, who apparently was real hard on his team in the week-long hiatus from the ice, putting them through extensive practices with drills, scrimmages...the works. They played with a purpose in their two games back, going off on Toronto on Saturday in a 7-5 contest. They then turned right around the next day, flew to Philly, who is fourth in the East right now, and came away with a 4-3 victory to all but clinch the top spot going forward in the playoffs. I think a lot of it has to do with the deadline acquisition of Mark Recchi, and getting all of their pieces aligned around Recchi's arrival. When you add a guy like that, there is definitely some shifting of the lines that will take place, and there was obviously some adjustments that had to be made because of that, but now that everyone seems to be on the same page, the B's have looked pretty impressive, winning five of their last seven in this most critical time of the season. The B's are in a precarious position in that, if the playoffs were to start today, they would get the #1 seed, and guess who would be waiting for them in the #8 seed? You guessed it, those damn Montreal Canadiens, who have given the Bruins nothing but grief recently in the playoffs, starting with the 2003-04 season, a season where the Bruins were the top seed, and the Habs were #8 (deja vu is contagious). Boston was up 3-1 in the series, and watched then-Hart Trophy winner Jose Theodore put on a goalie clinic from Games 5-7, reeling off three straight wins to bounce the Bruins out in Game 7. Then, last year, the B's, who this time were the underdogged #8 going up against the top-seeded Canadiens, rallied back from 3-1 to tie the series, forcing the action to move back to Montreal for a Game 7...where we got annihilated. So, I guess what I'm trying to say is that I really just would rather avoid the whole Montreal thing. Then again, you're looking at a championship drought that has lasted for over 35 years (although this drought was more or less the product of terrible ownership and not a curse), and seemingly, it's always coming down to the arch-rival to move on...maybe the B's can use some of that '04 Red Sox magic to conjure up a Cup run this year (also, how long do they want to be so-called "black sheep" of the Boston sports landscape for not winning a title?).

I'm so happy I did not buy into the Julius Peppers story. See, I bet a lot of people were let down by that, but not me. I steered clear of that whole saga. Sure, I mentioned it to people, but in the same breath, also noted how much skepticism I had about it. Peppers hasn't even signed his franchise tender, so the Panthers can't even have direct communication with the Pats even if they wanted to trade him. Okay, so now, I'm just hoping the Pats get Jason Taylor, or at least someone proven to play OLB. In my latest mock draft, I have them taking Aaron Maybin from Penn State, which may be wishful thinking considering there's a very real possibility that he doesn't make it out of the top 15. Even if the Pats get Maybin, I would like to see some kind of Plan B being inititated. Jason Taylor, as I've said all along, makes way too much sense considering the talent you would be getting for the price tag that will come along with it. People are rushing to try and determine who had the best offseason. I think we should wait until after the draft to really start assessing how each team has fared. With that being said though, I really like what the Pats have done. They have brought experience (Taylor, Springs, Galloway) and youth (Bodden, Lewis) into the fold, and armed with eleven picks, including six in the top 100, you know the Pats will be major players on the first day of the draft.

I've thought about this Cassel trade for literally months now, and here is my final conclusion: Yes, a second round pick was probably not as much as the Pats may have been able to get. However, with the 34th pick, they suddenly find themselves in a position where teams could be willing to trade up to that pick and be prepared to ship New England a first-round pick in next year's draft. I don't think a lot has been said about this, but the Pats could absolutely bank a first-rounder out of this. For some precedence as to what I'm talking about, back in the '07 Draft, the Niners traded a fourth round pick in '07 and a first rounder in '08 to Indy for the #42 overall pick. So, based on that model, the #34 overall could be turned into a first-round pick. I guess I'm just throwing this out there because I've been thinking about this, like most Pats fans have, for months, and I think this is an idea that really hasn't been mentioned yet.

Well, I figured I would just check in and give you something other than college B-Ball. Next week is going to be crazy, starting this weekend with the Final Four, then onto Monday with the Sox playing their Opening Day game against the Rays in Fenway at 1, then the NCAA Championship game being played that night, and finally the Masters, easily the best tournament in golf, starts up on Monday and will feature Tiger Woods fresh off of his amazing finish at Bay Hill yesterday. Yeah, he's good. Well, hope all is right with you out there. Peace.

~Mell-o

2009 NFL Mock Draft 2.0

2009-03-29T17:27:00.001-04:00

"I'm the fear addicted, danger illustrated."

So the combine and the free agency period has come and gone, and instead of studying for my upcoming teaching licensing exam, I'm going to spend a few moments by updating my mock draft. Again, I have no idea how many of these I will do, but here comes the second installment:

1. Detroit- Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit: Okay, now I'm convinced about this one. Detroit is sitting there with the 20th pick, which they could easily turn into Jay Cutler at this point, and yet they are standing pat, which basically is telling me that they're sold on Stafford to take him #1.

2. St. Louis- Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia: This one now has me a little perplexed in the fact that the Rams are obviously going to draft a tackle...but which one? Personally, I have Jason Smith higher than Monroe right now, and yet the whispers around are saying that the Rams are favoring Monroe right now. They absolutely are drafting a tackle though after the release of Orlando Pace

3. Kansas City- Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest: This now becomes the easiest pick to predict...even easier than the Stafford pick. Curry is exactly what the Chiefs need, and while they are still needing to address Jared Allen's absence two years later, Curry is the #1 player in this draft, and as I've said before, a linebacker with a top-10 grade rarely misses.

4. Seattle- Jason Smith, OT, Baylor: This pick has changed for me over and over again. They needed a receiver, but then they got Houshmandzadeh. Then I'm thinking D-Tackle, but they trade for Cory Redding, so that's out. They very well could go receiver here, but I think if one of the two tackles (Monroe or Smith...in this case, Smith) falls to them at four, they cannot afford to pass on them. Walter Jones is 35, and they are going to need help at that position sooner rather than later.

5. Cleveland- Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas: I originally slated Malcolm Jenkins because it made a ton of sense...he's a corner, which they need, and he's a Buckeye, which works in Cleveland. The problem is that this draft will be run by Mangini and Co., which means that corner will probably not be something they think about at #5. Instead, they are probably going to try the Mario Williams route and try to get the franchise end. I'm huge on Orakpo, but I'm going to closely monitor this one because right now, there really hasn't been much of a read on this one.

6. Cincinnati- Andre Smith, OT, Alabama: Again, the concept of a team full of bad characters accepting yet another bad character into the group makes a bunch of sense. Can someone please explain why Smith ran shirtless at his pro day? He was wildly out of shape, so why showcase the man-boobs? This guy is probably the scariest pick on the board.

7. Oakland- Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State: Instead of taking a chance on a guy like Crabtree or B.J. Raji, the Raiders, or more or less Al Davis, will be going for the best athlete on the board. Brown can play two positions, and is a total workhorse. All things considered, this is still a good value pick for Oakland.

8. Jacksonville- Mark Sanchez, QB, Southern Cal: I didn't think it would come to this for the Jags, but despite the fact that Jacksonville has David Garrard in place, I think they secretly are looking for a reason to unload him, especially after last year's debaucle. What a difference the '08 season made. Going into last year, they thought they had their franchise QB in Garrard, and now it seems like they can't wait to get rid of him. This works also in the fact that Sanchez will likely be able to take a year to be under Garrard's tutilledge, for whatever that's worth. It is proven that a rookie QB is much better in the short-term sitting out the first year and learning the system than to jump right in from Day 1 (Matt Ryan being an obvious exception).

9. Green Bay- B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College: I think the basic sentiments about Raji are that he is as good of a "sure-fire" pick as you're going to get in the draft. Athletically gifted, great football IQ, Raji is the total package. Green Bay will be shifting to the 3-4 next year (which has already been viewed with some skepticism), and from watching the kind of impact Vince Wilfork has on the defense, it's easy to understand how critical it is to have a competent tackle in a 3-4.

10. San Francisco- Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech: This team needs help at a bunch of different spots, but what's interesting to me is that no one has mentioned the Niners going after a receiver with this pick. At last check, their receivers are Josh Morgan, Isaac Bruce, Arnaz Battle, Bryant Johnson, and Jason Hill...not exactly a "who's who" for that position. The Niners clearly are not comfortable with their quarterback after their recent pursuit of Kurt Warner, but if Stafford and Sanchez are both gone, there isn't a QB outside of those two who is deserving of a top-10 pick.

11. Buffalo Bills- Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech: It appears like the Bills will be looking for some help on their D-Line, which means that they may reach here for Johnson, whose combine performance likely helped him get from the bottom of the first round to near top1-0 status.

12. Denver Broncos- Brian Cushing, LB, Southern Cal: So the Broncos have sure made a ton of noise for all the wrong reasons since the last mock draft. Despite their QB issues, look for the Broncos to address their linebacker shortage with this pick. Basically, it's like "pick your favorite Southern Cal linebacker here."

13. Washington- Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss: I think the 'Skins biggest problem isn't the effectiveness of Jason Campbell (it's a problem, but not the biggest), but keeping Clinton Portis healthy. The 'Skins need of Portis in the game is almost as crucial as the Colts needing of Peyton Manning to run the offense...that's how vital Portis is in the gran scheme of things. With that being said, going O-Line here would be a sound move in re-building a line that was shaky at times last year (mostly due to injuries).

14. New Orleans- Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State: This would be a pretty good get for the Saints to snag Jenkins outside the top 10. They have some concerns at linebacker, but right now, I think they go with Jenkins because of the value they are getting here.

15. Houston- Rey Maualuga, LB, Southern Cal: The Texans have done a nice job of refurbishing their defense through the draft, and I feel like they will continue to do so in this draft and with this pick.

16. San Diego- Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU: For right now, I'm going to just assume that the Chargers are going to wait to work on their running back situation and instead focus on something that is more pressing in the current situation. The Chargers had an incredibly tough time putting pressure on the QB after Merriman went out for the year.

17. New York Jets- Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri: It's amazing what the effect of Crabtree slipping to pick #10 has on Maclin, the consensus second-best receiver in the draft. The Jets are definitely going to be in the market for a receiver after watching Laveranues Coles head off to Cincy.

18. Chicago- Darius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland: Another workout warrior here in Bey, who ran the fastest 40 time at the combine. He has slipped in front of Hakeem Nicks for the #3 WR, which in my opinion is a mistake, but in any case, the Bears have to go receiver here...Devin Hester is the #2 receiver on this team...that's not something to gloat about.

19. Tampa Bay- Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State: I'm basically going to go with my fellow draftniks on this pick because they all have Freeman going to the Bucs. Of course the whole Jay Cutler situation has yet to be resolved, and Tampa is obviously going to be a major player if Cutler is made available...again...but if they can't get him, it looks like they will try and make Freeman a franchise QB, which he very well could do, but I think we don't know enough about him right now to annoint him a "franchise" QB.

20. Detroit- Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois: I think that trying to figure out what the Lions are going to do is the hardest task of this entire draft...what do you get for the team that needs everything? A lot of people are in line with my thinking in that the Lions will just be trying to get the best player available, because if they do that, a.) they really can't miss, and b.) one way or another, they are going to be filling a need. I will be absolutely stunned if the Lions cannot put together a top-3 draft class given the picks that they have.

21. Philadelphia- Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State: Of course when you do these mock drafts, you try to think like how each of these teams' GMs think. If I'm Philly, I have to spring for Pettigrew right now. As history has shown us, these bottom ten picks in the first round are very much up for grabs. So, this makes sense because he's the best TE available, the Eagles desperately need a TE, they have to be wary of other teams trying to trade up to get him, and I think the biggest reason this makes sense is that drafting Pettigre at #21 is not a reach, and you're getting good value for the pick.

22. Minnesota- Eben Britton, OT, Arizona: The Vikings lost Matt Birk to the Titans, which leaves a rather huge hole in their O-Line. However, there isn't an interior O-Lineman that is worthy of going right here. I think they take Britton to sure up the right side of the line. Remember, they are starting the year with Sage Rosenfels behind center (whoever that center may be), so any help they can get on that line will be needed.

23. New England- Aaron Maybin, DE/LB, Penn State: This is one of those times where I'm betting with my head over my heart on this one. Obviously, my heart is screaming for James Laurinaitis, much like it did for Paul Poslunsky in a similar spot two years ago. I just Laurinaitis fits the mold better than anyone that the Pats could take. Optimally though, they are looking for an OLB, and Laurinaitis is an ILB, so I'll slot Maybin here.

24. Atlanta- Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss: I'm sticking with Jerry here because the Falcons were so bad against the run last year that they absolutely need to improve up front.

25. Miami- Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forst: I was pencilling in a linebacker here, but it appears like the Dolphins may be heading in a different direction than I initially thought, suring up their defensive backfield instead and going with Smith, who heads up the second tier of DBs in the draft.

26. Baltimore- Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina: Nicks is a big, physical specimen who is likely to yield big dividends to whoever takes him. Baltimore is ideal because they simply don't have that big target for Flacco.

27. Indianapolis- Percy Harvin, WR, Florida: It's a long shot that Harvin stays on the board for this long, but if he does, doesn't Harvin fit in Indy really well? He's a good system receiver, and he'll be going into a system that operates much like Florida's did (basically the "you can't stop them, just hope to maintain them" philosophy).

28. Philadelphia- Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State: It definitely took a long time for the first running back to come off the board, which makes me think that I may be doing some adjusting here (well, I was going to do some adjustments anyway, but this is another reason for it).

29. New York Giants- James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State: The Giants have drafted exceptionally well on defense recently, so don't be surprised if they add on another defensive stud here.

30. Tennessee- Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers: Britt has officially broken through into garnering a first-round grade after his impressive workouts, and again, as was evident in the playoffs last year, the Titans desperately need a possession receiver other than Justin Gage.

31. Arizona- Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia: This is really low for Moreno, who I had going #16 in my first mock draft. However, if Moreno is not careful, he may slip out of the first round altogether with LeSean McCoy and Donald Brown nipping at his heels.

32. Pittsburgh- William Beatty, OT, Connecticut: Beatty is another example of a player helping themselves out with the combine and their pro days. Beatty now has a high second-round grade, and given the Steelers' needs, likely bumps him into the end of the first.

Again, and I know this gets repetitive, but there will be more of these to come, so stay tuned for that. Have a good week everyone. Peace.

~Mell-o

Bracket Breakdown: Elite Eight

2009-03-29T09:55:00.000-04:00

"I'm not growing up, I'm just burning out."

Sorry I put this up so late. I got kind of hung up yesterday and was not able to get writing before the games started. Again, sorry for the lateness.

Saturday Games:

4:40: (1) Connecticut vs. (3) Missouri; West Region; Glendale:

Mizzou was dominant against Memphis, but they allowed the Tigers to get back into the game. UConn has been either the most or second-most impressive team in the tourney, and right now, I think the Huskies just have too much of everything. All things considered, Mizzou has established themselves as a presence and a team on the brink of being a national powerhouse.

Original Pick: Memphis, Present Pick: Connecticut

7:05: (1) Pittsburgh vs. (3) Villanova; East Region; Boston:

I'm in one of these elimination pools where your team has to beat the spread to continue on. Long story short, I ended up with Pittsburgh, who is favored by two. However, if I have to make a pick, regardless of my personal potential financial gains, I have to go with the 'Cats in this game. It is between 'Nova and UConn for who is having the most impressive tournament. I loved Pitt from the beginning, but as the tournament has gone on, it is clear that the Panthers do not quite have it.

Original Pick: Pittsburgh, Present Pick: Villanova

Sunday Games:

2:20: (1) Louisville vs. (2) Michigan State; Midwest Region; Indianapolis:

The Cardinals have had one of the luckiest draws in recent memory, not having to play anyone above a 9-seed in the first three games. The Spartans have been scratching and surviving through the last two games, especially last round against Kansas. I feel like the Cards will get a taste of reality here. Plus, the Spartans are this close to getting to the Final Four in Detroit. I don't remember the last time a team had basically a home game in the Final Four.

Original Pick: Michigan State, Present Pick: Michigan State

5:05: (1) North Carolina vs. (2) Oklahoma; South Region; Memphis:

So the matchup that I never thought would happen is happening: Blake Griffin vs. Tyler Hansbrough. If this was a one-on-one contest, I'm taking Griffin every time. However, the game will not be just about these two guys (although a large majority of it is). The Tar Heels are absolutely loaded, and they have been playing well even with Ty Lawson clearly not at 100%. The Sooners blasted 'Cuse last round, and they were also going up against a team who had a point guard in less than optimal shape. I feel that ultimately, Lawson's injury will creep up again, and the Sooners will be able to take advantage of it. To me, this game will come down to coaching, and as much as I like Jeff Capel, he has never been this far as a coach. I feel like Roy Williams' experience will take over, and the Tar Heels' depth will shine through.

Original Pick: North Carolina, Present Pick: North Carolina

I swear I really had 'Nova winning yesterday. What a fantastic finish. In any event, we will not have four #1's in the Final Four again, and I hope that never happens again. 'Nova is adding a little spice to a tournament that, for the most part, was totally mundane. Anyway, enjoy the games today. Peace.

~Mell-o

Bracket Breakdown: Sweet Sixteen

2009-03-25T19:51:00.000-04:00

"'Cause it's soon one morning, down the road I'm gone."

So I figured out that apparently, now-a-days, picking higher seeds will work out for you. 16-0 in my second round picks, but it's really nothing to go on about because the high seeds went 15-1 on Saturday and Sunday, with Purdue being the only "lower" seed to move on. Once again, the tournament basically produced all higher seeds making the Sweet Sixteen, which is both deserved and incredibly lame at the same time. I know that the higher seeds should be the ones moving on, but if all the higher seeds advance, what is the point of watching really? If we already know who's moving on, it defeats the entire purpose of the tournament. So, I'm at least hoping that the tourney throws us a few change-ups in the next few rounds.

Thursday Games:

7:07: (1) Connecticut vs. (5) Purdue; West Region; Glendale:

So UConn has been in the news...for basically all the wrong reasons. They have been the most dominant team in the tournament, and yet all that anyone will be able to talk about is the recent recruiting charges they may be facing. Is this going to be enough to deter the Huskies from Detroit? My thinking here is that they will be distracted, and there will be no denying that, and it will be especially evident once play hits the second half. I feel like UConn will start out strong, but I think that Purdue will be able to claw back into the game. Ultimately though, I have to stay with my original thoughts and say that UConn will have too much size for the Boilermakers.

Original Pick: Connecticut, Present Pick: Connecticut

7:27: (1) Pittsburgh vs. (4) Xavier; East Region; Boston:

Of all the number 1's, Pittsburgh has been the weakest thus far. East Tennessee State took the Panthers to the limit, then Okie State gave them a battle. These two games tell me something: Pittsburgh is resilliant, but they can be had, which definitely concerns me considering I have them going a long, long way. I've been saying all along that Xavier continues to go unappreciated, and guess what? They still are! The Xavier Muskateers are for real! I feel like I have to get on top of something very tall and just start screaming this out. Xavier is going to push Pitt to the edge...again, but Pitt will prevail, and why you ask?...

...because it's DeJuan Freggin' Blair.

Original Pick: Pittsburgh, Present Pick: Pittsburgh

9:37: (2) Memphis vs. (3) Missouri; West Region; Glendale:

Memphis just played mad against Maryland. You could almost see how much it bothered them that Cal State Northridge nearly bounced them in the opening round. Don't suspect for a moment that Calipari won't use that once again vs. Mizzou. My boy Leo Lyons for the Tigers has had an outstanding tournament, but the Tigers that I see playing with more intensity and no abandon will be the ones from Memphis.

Original Pick: Memphis, Present Pick: Memphis

9:57: (2) Duke vs. (3) Villanova; East Region; Boston:

Get ready for Chapel Hill North tonight when the Dukies go into the Garden to play 'Nova. In case you were unaware, pretty much everyone absolutely hates Duke up here, so expect all those Pitt fans and Xavier fans to be pulling for the Wildcats, because a.) they're not Duke, and b.) they are the lower seed, meaning, technically, it would make for an "easier" road to the Final Four. Sorry, but that's just the way it is. 'Nova, much like Memphis, came out and played inspired basketball in the second round, against UCLA, after they nearly were eliminated in the first, by American. Even I'm shocked that I had Duke making it this far. There will be no love-loss tonight in Beantown for the Blue Devils.

Original Pick: Villanova; Present Pick: Villanova

Friday Games:

7:07: (1) Louisville vs. (12) Arizona; Midwest Region; Indianapolis:

Yup, still kicking myself about having 'Zona out in the first round. The Wildcats proved to be legitimate with their opener against Utah and their thrashing of Cleveland State in round two. Louisville got a scare from Siena, and really had to work some magic to get the job done there. Ultimately, I think the Cardinals just have a better all-around package right now than 'Zona does.

Original Pick: Wake Forest; Present Pick: Louisville

7:27: (2) Oklahoma vs. (3) Syracuse; South Region; Memphis:

So the 'Cuse have played well, looking sharp against Stephen F. Austin, and managing a late ASU rally in the second round to reach the Sweet Sixteen. Oklahoma has been rolling along as well. Again, if Clemson plays anywhere close to their capabilities, they are in this game right now. That's what makes me so mad. I hate this team for obvious reasons, and now the degree of hatred has risen even more, which I didn't think it could possibly have done. Right now, I think Johnny Flynn is playing on an entirely different level than pretty much everyone in the tournament left, and while I love Blake Griffin's game, I hate to keep picking the team that has the best player in the country, because it never works out...Clemson should have done it...I hate the Tigers!!!!!!

Original Pick: Clemson, Present Pick: Syracuse

9:37: (2) Michigan State vs. (3) Kansas; Midwest Region; Indianapolis:

See, this is where I see State getting into the Final Four. This tour of the Big 10 now makes a stop in Indy, where State has been dominant (undefeated all-time in Indy...8-0 I think?). I think now, they have a whiff of Detroit (in a good sense), and they are one step away from playing in a National Semifinal game in their home state.

Original Pick: Michigan State, Present Pick: Michigan State

9:57: (1) North Carolina vs. (4) Gonzaga; South Region; Memphis:

Okay, here's my grand theory, and one of the reasons I had Clemson going to the Elite 8: UNC vs. OU will not happen...it's too good. The matchup of Tyler Hansbrough and Blake Griffin would be too epic, too great...it's too easy. One of them will win I think though. So, if I have 'Cuse in the first game, I'm sticking with UNC in this one, even though I really want to see Gonzaga win here and get to the Final Four, something that program has been destined to do for over a decade.

Original Pick: North Carolina, Present Pick: North Carolina

Hope everyone has had a nice couple of days off from the madness, but get ready, because it commences once again tonight. Take care everyone. Peace.

~Mell-o

1st Annual Over/Under MLB Predictions

2009-03-25T00:06:00.001-04:00

"...then I stepped away."

I know that we're right in the middle of the tournament, but I have a feeling that I will be way too preoccupied later on to not do my first ever over/under column with baseball. This is going to be a quick one probably, but I have to get it on record to look back on and say "hey, maybe I still have it," or "hey, I should have quit two years ago." Let's get right into it (last year's wins in parentheses):

Arizona Diamondbacks (82): O/U 85.5:
Obviously, the D-Backs are top-heavy in their rotation with Webb, Haren, and introducing Max Scherzer. The bullpen is pretty questionable, and it's not because the talent isn't there, but it's more like there are too many unknown factors, like if Qualls can adjust fully to being the full-time closer? Can Pena stay healthy? On offense, I love Stephen Drew, and outside of Hanley Ramirez, he's probably the best shortstop in the league. They couldn't bring back Adam Dunn, so they lose a bunch of power there. So, they're going to be relying heavily on Conor Jackson, Mark Reynolds, and Chris Young to put up similar power numbers as they did last year. Two more questions will be how well Justin Upton will do in his second full year, and can Eric Byrnes ever even come close to his form from '07? Too many question marks for me here.

Pick: Under

Atlanta Braves (72): O/U 83.5:
This is going to be the first of probably numerous instances where I will just sit here in silence and think "damn you Vegas, why do you read my mind like this?" In all seriousness, I would have said 83 wins for the Braves this year. So, I guess I have to think this one out. Okay, well, I like the Braves' starters, especially Jair Jurrjens. I think he will be big-time this year. Questions definitely linger in the bullpen, especially considering there is really no clear-cut favorite for the closer position. Mike Gonzalez is penciled in, but Rafael Soriano is a very capable pitcher, but just can't stay healthy. On offense, Brian McCann has taken the torch of being the best offensive catcher in the majors from Joe Mauer. Chipper Jones is probably going to be out for a bulk of time though, and that's their go-to guy considering the utter collapse of Jeff Francoeur. I love Kelly Johnson, and I think especially in the situation he's in where his offense is going to be relied upon heavily. So, a .290/20/90/10/95 season is totally within reason. I think the NL East is going to be in kind of an off-year, with no one really running away with it. So, going three games over .500 is definitely a possibility.

Pick: Over

Baltimore Orioles (68): O/U 73.5:
Baltimore made those two trades a couple of years ago to beef up their minor league system, but outside of Adam Jones, none of those prospects involved in those trades will really have any impact this year. Of course, the big story with the O's is Matt Wieters. I will fill you in right now, in case you were unaware, and just say that Wieters, in maybe two or three years, will absolutely be the best catcher in baseball. I predict things all the time, and I definitely have had my share of misses, but this one is as close to a lock as you can possibly get. We will get to see him probably around June, and I am really looking forward to that. Nick Markakis is one of the best young outfielders in the majors. Aubrey Huff had probably the most silent .300/30/100 seasons in recent memory. Brian Roberts will get his 40 steals, but outside of that, this will be a season of hard-knocks for the O's, and you pretty much have to know it considering Jeremy Guthrie is the "ace" of the staff. Again, can't wait for Wieters, love the Markakis/Jones outfield combo, and Huff may be able to come close to what he did last year, but they simply have no pitching, so I say they stay right around where they were last year

Pick: Under

Boston Red Sox (95): O/U 95:
My read on this team is this: They may not score as many runs as Sox teams have in the past, but their pitching is probably the best in baseball. However, just because they have the best pitching, that does not necessarily mean they will shutout every team they play. I like this year's version a lot, but 95 wins could be a bit lofty. I'm thinking more like 91-93.

Pick: Under

Chicago Cubs (97): O/U 92:
Basically, you're looking at the same Cubs team from last year without Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa. In this division, which continues to be mediocre at best, the Cubs should have no problem getting back into the 95-win range. The only real question for me is Carlos Marmol becoming the closer this year. He's been lights-out as a set-up guy, but when he was asked to be the closer when Wood went on the DL, the results were very much mixed. This will be an interesting situation to follow especially after the Kevin Gregg trade with Florida. Gregg was the Marlins' closer last year, and if Marmol struggles out of the gate, you have to wonder how long Pinella's leash on him will be until he makes Gregg the ninth inning man.

Pick: Over

Chicago White Sox (89): O/U 77.5:
I'm not really sure what I'm missing here to make me believe that the ChiSox will drop twelve games from last year. Buehrle is still going to get his 15 wins, Gavin Floyd and John Danks look to improve on their fast starts from last year, they have a solid closer in Jenks, the offense is pretty well off with Dye, Quentin, and Thome, and Alexei Ramirez is already being touted as one of the best second basemen in the game...what exactly is there not to like?

Pick: Over

Cincinnati Reds (74): O/U 77.5:
I think this one will be close. This is a different team without Adam Dunn. They really missed his 40 homers in the middle of the lineup. Still, there are a bunch of bright spots. Jay Bruce and Joey Votto both showed they were worth the hype, Edwin Encarnacion silently continues to pile up good numbers for a third baseman, Edison Volquez is making the Josh Hamilton trade at least look somewhat fair to them, and I think Francisco Cordero will have a nice year. However, questions still have to linger about the two struggling starting pitchers: Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. Both of them pitched way below their collective potentials last year, and it remains to be seen if they can get back to their past forms. Also, the offense has a ton of holes in it. One of the keys will be how Ramon Hernandez does in a contract year at a hitters' park. If he can get to the 20/90 range, the Reds have a chance to get to .500. Also, can WIlly Taverez make the kind of impact at the top of the lineup as he did in Colorado? Right now though, I don't quite see it.

Pick: Under

Cleveland (81): O/U 84.5

There are a lot of unknowns circling this team. I have to start with Kerry Wood, because I still don't think you pay a guy with that questionable of an injury past $10 million a year to close out games. Then there is Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner. Martinez is coming back from an elbow injury that basically had him out of the entire season last year. Wedge will try to get him in as a DH and at first, but you have to wonder if he will be able to hold up through an entire season. As far as Hafner goes, what happened to Pronk? He was one of the most feared lefties in the AL, and now, you can pick him up on the waiver wire in fantasy leagues. If he can figure out whatever reverse voodoo was put on him, he still is totally capable of 25/100. After Cliff Lee, this pitching staff is pretty dreadful. To sum that up: Carl Pavano is the team's fourth starter. Really, how good could they be?

Pick: Under

Colorado Rockies (74): O/U 76.5:

With Matt Holliday gone to Oakland, the Rockies are in a state of rebuilding after making the World Series just two years ago. They are on a five-year plan, and these will be the beginning stages. Colorado still doesn't have the starting pitching that it takes to make a run for the division, despite the fact that the NL West is probably the worst division in all of sports. Tulowitski will be back to full strength, and they desperately need him to be back to his '07 form to at least attempt to make up for Holliday's absence. If Brad Hawpe ever wants to become a legitimate star in this league, now is his chance.

Pick: Under

Detroit Tigers (74): O/U 81.5:

The Tigers severely underachieved last year. Their hopes were riding on Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to right the ship, and while Cabrera lived up to expectations, Willis was a disaster who ended up in single A. Their offense is still very potent with Cabrera, Ordonez, and Granderson. Carlos Guillen will be making his debut as a full-time outfielder, so it remains to be seen how that experiment will work. The Tigers traded for Gerald Laird and signed Adam Everett to improve on their defense. The starting pitching is actually not that bad. Verlander is the ace, and the Tigers are counting on him big time. Detroit wanted Joel Zumaya to close for them, but he could not stay healthy, opening the door for the Brandon Lyon signing. There are going to be three teams to finish over .500 in the AL Central, and I think Detroit will be one of them.

Pick: Over

Florida Marlins (84): O/U 75.5:

The Marlins start with Hanley Ramirez, who is now the top-rated fantasy player in all of baseball. Of course fantasy very rarely translates into reality, but believe me, you are not going to see too many guys like Ramirez come along very often. The numbers he puts up in that offense is staggering. Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu are two 25-homer infielders that seemingly can't get any respect. Jeremy Hermida is much like Brad Hawpe in that if he ever wants to make a name for himself, now is the time. Matt Lindstrom will enter the season as the closer, but he already has gotten himself dinged up at the WBC. We'll see how much of a factor that will be going forward. I think the Marlins have just enough pitching and hitting to put them around the .500 mark.

Pick: Over

Houston Astros (86): O/U 73:

The Astros fell right off the deep end this offseason, failing to make themselves a legit division title contender, like they have been for most of the decade. When I looked at the over/under and saw that there would be a potential thirteen game drop-off, I thought there may have been some mistake. Then I looked at their depth chart...Mike Hampton is the third starter, Russ Ortiz is their fifth, they just signed Pudge Rodriguez...this may have worked if you wanted to build a winner in 1998.

Pick: Under

Kansas City Royals (75): O/U 75.5:

I pegged the Royals early on as the team to watch in 2009. I absolutely love this team. Mike Aviles is on the cusp of becoming an elite middle infielder in just his second year. Mike Jacobs was a great pickup from the Marlins who could hit 30 homers. Alex Gordon showed his potential in the second half, and now that people are not going to be riding him to become "the next George Brett," I think he will become more comfortable at the plate and get to the .300/25/90 that his potential suggests he should do. The outfield is probably the most under-appreciated in baseball...it's pretty solid with DeJesus, Coco, and Jose Guillen. The pitching is above average with Grienke and Meche anchoring the staff, and one of the best closers in baseball in Joakim Soria. Watch out for the Royals.

Pick: Over

Los Angeles Angels (100): O/U 88.5:

If the Angels had an outspoken owner and spent $50-75 million more, they very well could be called the Yankees. The Halos spend close to $100 million each season ($119,216,333 last year), and yet they have not made it past the first round of the playoffs since '01 when they won it all. Is it me, or is it painful just to watch Vladimir Guerrero do...anything? I can't even imagine what his knees are like right now. After that, there is a ton of young players that will be stepping into full-time. Napoli could be one of the best catchers in the league if he stays healthy. They picked up Bobby Abreu to add to an outfield of Guerrero and Torii Hunter...not bad. They lose K-Rod and replace him with Brian Fuentes, which is interesting because Fuentes was not the full-time closer last year in Colorado (although he did have to step in after Manny Corpas started falling apart). This is an interesting staff with Lackey (contract year), Weaver, Saunders (who for some reason everyone hates even though he will put up 17 wins this year), Dustin Moseley and Nick Adenhart, who both have been erratic in the majors and the minors. The thing is that the Angels play in a terribly weak division, which makes me believe they can get to 90 wins.

Pick: Over

Los Angeles Dodgers (84): O/U 85:

Manny has signed...I think? So, just with that, the Dodgers should make it to 90 wins easily. This team has a ton of quality hitters. Russell Martin is one of those "M" catchers that you have to have (Martin, McCann, Mauer, Martinez). James Loney is totally underrated because he doesn't hit 30-35 homers, but still, expect 20-25 from him. The outfield is stellar...probably the best in baseball. Manny, Matt Kemp (who if you were unaware of before this season, you should probably look into his numbers and his projections for this year...pretty impressive), and Andre Ethier. The pitching is also extremely young, which is both exciting and horrifying in the same instance. Hiroki Kuroda is in his second season, and he has already been dubbed the "ace." Billingsley and Kershaw are both young hurlers who both could hit 17 wins. Then, the biggest question mark is probably Jonathan Broxton, who will be in his first full year as the closer. He did step in last year when Takashi Saito went on the DL. Can Broxton be an elite closer (in case you didn't know, Broxton is like the NL Papelbon...at least in potential), or will he just be average? I'm thinking elite...really like the Dodgers this year...World Series? I wouldn't doubt it.

Pick: Over

Milwaukee Brewers (90): O/U 81:

Don't kid yourself by thinking otherwise...the proposed nine win drop-off has anything and everything to do with C.C. Sabathia going to the Yankees. Another factor could be Ben Sheets, but honestly, when can you really make an accurate prediction about not only how many wins he could account for, but how many starts he'll make in general? They get Trevor Hoffman, who, not surprisingly, has already succumbed to the injury bug and is out indefinitely. The offense is still nasty. They have the best 3-4 combo in baseball in my opinion with Braun and Fielder (sorry Yankee fans), Hardy brings the rare "power shortstop" aspect to the table. I love Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, and Mike Cameron because you have three 20/20 guys in the same lineup...how many teams can boast that (and actually, you can throw Braun in there to make it four). All and all, the Brewers' staff will obviously be taking a hit with their two best pitchers gone, but are they really that bad? Gallardo, Bush, Suppan, Looper, and Parra...it's not the best 1-5 in the game, but all of them are capable of double-digit wins. The bullpen really has me concerned. There's not a lot of depth, and most of the guys there I just don't like (basically everyone outside of Seth McClung). Still, this team will be second in the N.L. Central, and make a push to get back to the 90-win mark.

Pick: Over

Minnesota Twins (88): O/U 83:

Already, this Joe Mauer injury really makes me second-guess the legitimacy of this team. I know that they have a really nice compliment of starting pitching with Liriano, Baker, and Slowey, and have one of the most consistent closers in Joe Nathan, but where do they go from there? The outfield literally has no power (Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, and Denard Span combined for 23 homers last year), you have a Nick Punto/Alexei Casilla double play...outside of Morneau and Kubel, I have a hard time trying to figure out where the offense will come from.

Pick: Under

New York Mets (89): O/U 89.5:

This is another one where I'm very much on the fence about my pick. Do we really know what is up with this team? The core guys have been there for like three years, and yet it just doesn't seem to be clicking in Flushing. Now, with a new stadium, and two consecutive choke job seasons (yeah I said it), the Mets, hopefully, will be playing with a sense of purpose this year. This team is like the Tigers but with even more potential, which really baffles me how they couldn't eclipse 90 wins in the NL. The first thing you have to look at is behind the plate with Brian Schneider, who will be going into his second season in New York. Here's a guy who has never had over 12 homers and has not hit over .270 for an entire season. That's a question mark...does this remind you of any other team with a $100+ million payroll with a suspect offensive catcher? Hmmm. Another question comes in the outfield. Beltran in center is solid, but Daniel Murphy in left and Ryan Church in right?...a little less solid. However, I think Church has potential as long as he can get his 400 ABs (his one season with 400+ AB in '07 w/ the Nats: .272/15/70...not bad). The staff is headed up by Santana, but after that, it gets interesting. I think Mike Pelfrey and John Maine are just bugging the crap out of Mets fans...like when are these guys going to be the stars that they were advertised to be? You already know how I feel about the Putz/K-Rod set-up/closer combo (and in case you don't know...I'm not a big fan). Even with the question marks, the Mets have got to get to 90 wins...it would just be appalling if they didn't. I know "appalling" is harsh...but wouldn't it be? A team spends $140 million...you have to get to 90.

Pick: Over

New York Yankees (89): O/U 94.5:

Ummm...nope.

Pick: Under

Oakland Athletics (75): O/U 82:

You know, I like this team, but I don't like them that much. Here's what I like: The Matt Holliday trade is obviously going to be a rental kind of situation unless Billy Beane gives someone around $100 million for the first time ever. Still, Holliday is going to put up decent numbers in that lineup. They signed the OC...if you've been reading this column from the start, you know of my insatiable love of Orlando Cabrera. I don't know what else to say, I just love the guy...as a player. That was one of the top 10 free agent signings, and another one, at least on paper, is getting Jason Giambi back. I think he will work out...again, in Oakland. Plus, I like the potential of the pitching staff, especially Sean Gallagher (a guy from Boston who throws in the mid 90s...what is there not to like?). Now, here's what bugs me: First, Duchscherer, their ace, may not be able to pitch until May because of the most dreaded injury to hear concerning a pitcher: "elbow issues." Then, who exactly is closing for this team, and once we figure that out, are they even major league ready? It's between Ziegler and Devine, and I don't know how much confidence they have in either of them. Lastly, Eric Chavez just cannot stay healthy, and if they are trying to contend for second place in the West (which is basically the best that Oakland, Seattle, or Texas can do at this point), then you're going to need Chavez's bat and, more importantly, his glove out in the field.

Pick: Under

Philadelphia Phillies (92): O/U 88.5:

The defending World Champs are expected to have a drop off this year? Really? Hmmm...well this is definitely worth breaking down. Okay, hands down the best double play combo (Utley/Rollins) in baseball...I mean it's not even a competition for that anymore. If the Phils ever got a somewhat decent catcher, they would probably have the best lineup since the '03 Red Sox. At the corners, they have Ryan Howard, who hits obscene amounts of homers, and Pedro Feliz, who I have always been big on despite an off-year last year (first time in five years he did not hit the 20 home run plateau). In the outfield, you have a solid group in Jayson Werth (potentially could go 30/30), Shane Victorino (20/40 guy), and new addition Raul Ibanez, with the only knock on him potentially being the big contract he pulled down. My concerns are all pitching-related. Cole Hamels has basically been deemed "untouchable" in fantasy drafts, which just means trouble. Then you factor in Brett Myers, Joe Blanton and Jamie Moyer...they pitched faily well last year, can they all collectively stay healthy and pitch anywhere close to last year? The odds say no. Then you throw in the Brad Lidge factor, who was perfect last year (and I would know because I was the smart one that drafted him in the 14th round last year...yeah-ya!). I think he's a great pitcher, but there is no way we can honestly expect him to do the same thing this year. It's simply not realistic, as it is not realistic to expect the Phillies to run the tables again this season. I am with Vegas in expecting a bit of a drop-off.

Pick: Under

Pittsburgh Pirates (67): O/U 69:

Ahhh yes, the Bucs, who now own a piece of my heart after this summer in Lynchburg. What to make of this team? Well...they're young, that's for sure. The most experienced starter on the team is Jack Wilson, and he's 31, so you can pretty much go from there. When you talk about the Pirates, you have to talk about Nate McClouth, who had one of the best all-around seasons the Pirates have seen since at least the first couple of Jason Bay years. McClouth is the real deal, so expect more of the same this year. No one talks about Ryan Doumit because, well, he plays for Pittsburgh, but in all seriousness, he's definitely one of the top 5 catchers in the NL. Adam LaRoche also was a pleasant surprise in the Manny-Bay trade. Now, here are the concerns...and there are plenty. First, Nyjer Morgan and Brandon Moss starting off the year in the corner outfield positions. Basically, both these guys are rookies. I know much more about Moss than Morgan from him being in the Sox organization, and from what I've seen, I think Moss will end up as a guy who will not crack the 20/80 zone at any point in his career. He's a good player, but he's not a game-changer, which the Bucs need now that Bay is in Boston. I look for Steve Pearce to supplant one of these two (most likely Morgan) before the All-Star break. Then you have the rotation, which is a total mess. Maholm looked good at times last year. I've all but given up on Zach Duke. Who really bothers me in terms of if he will show up is Ian Snell. I remember watching him in the WBC, and thinking something like "is this Ian Snell's brother?" and "where as he been all this time?" I understand the stage was more grand in the WBC than it is at PNC, but Snell looked amazing for the P.R., and yet I think he will just be mediocre...again. Also, Matt Capps is coming back from a year in which he battled a shoulder injury to save 21 games. If he stays healthy, they at least have a shot late in games if they are ahead or close.

Pick: Under

San Diego Padres (63): O/U 71.5:

I definitely have to side with Vegas in believing that the Padres will be able to improve on last year's 99-loss season...actually, it's extremely hard for the Padres to do any worse, which makes me believe that there is nowhere to go but up. I expect superstar years from both Adrian Gonzalez and Jake Peavy because, well, they're superstars. Chase Headley is on the fast track to really putting up some huge numbers, and I expect that coming sooner rather than later. Chris Yound had a huge down-year, and I really think he will be turning it around because he simply has too much talent to be a below-average pitcher. The bullpen is surprisingly deep even after Hoffman moving on. Also, never bet against a David Eckstein team.

Pick: Over

San Francisco (72): O/U 79.5:

There seems to be a little buzz going on about this Giants team. One of the reasons is Pablo Sandoval, who will start the season at third and can also play first. Based on what we saw last year, Sandoval could answer some of the questions about power that the team has. Bengie Molina had a huge season last year, leading all catchers in RBIs with 95. The outfield is also fairly underrated with Fred Lewis, Aaron Rowand, and Randy Winn. Tim Lincecum is the reigning Cy Young award winner, and expect the same kind of things this year. Matt Cain is also due for about 14-16 wins. The question marks come in the form of 3/4 of the infield. Travis Ishikawa, Kevin Frandsen, and Edgar Renteria...not exactly the guys you want to start a franchise around. Then there is Barry Zito and Randy Johnson in the rotation. Zito arguably received the worst contract is professional sports, and has not even come close to earning a tenth of what he got. Johnson is 45, and while people believe that he may have something left in the tank, I respectfully disagree with that. Jonathan Sanchez is the fifth starter, and in terms of #5's, you can't do much better than Sanchez. All and all, I think the Giants were one move away (Manny) from being a serious contender, but with that being said, I think that the pieces they do have in the lineup and the Lincecum/Cain combination will be enough to get this team close to .500.

Pick: Over

Seattle Mariners (61): O/U 72.5:

Another really interesting team. The Mariners start the year with a new coach in Don Wakamatsu, and that's just the beginning of the changes. Ken Griffey, Jr. makes his triumphant return to Seattle. Much like Jason Giambi, I think this will be kind of a rejuvanating force on Griffey's career. Ichiro will move back to right field after spending last season in center. Of course, he will get his 200 hits, 40 steals, and a gold glove...that's just what he does. Adrian Beltre is ready to hit his 25 homers and 90 RBIs, as is Jose Lopez, who is vastly underrated as a second baseman. Felix Hernandez will be looking for a little more support this year, and Erik Bedard is a prime candidate for comeback player of the year. What concerns me the most is the indecision about who is starting for this team. Jeff Clement has been groomed to become the starting catcher, and yet the M's signed Kenji Johjima to a contract extension. The same goes with Wladimir Balentien, who was slated to be the starting left fielder in place of Ibanez, and now it seems that Endy Chavez will start the season there. Then there is the closer situation. It makes too much sense to have Brandon Morrow there. This is kind of like the Joba Chamberlain situation in New York, where the club believes they are under-utilizing a young pitcher in the bullpen. Morrow is the best option to be the closer, and yet the M's want him to be the 5th starter. I think these indecisions will hurt the team from the start, and it will be hard to make up those wins later on in the season.

Pick: Under

St. Louis Cardinals (86): O/U 82:

When you talk about the Cards, you have to talk about Albert Pujols, the most consistent and apparently clean player in the majors. Pujols actually has a nice compliment of hitters behind him in Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick. They have a .300 hitter behind the plate in Yadier Molina. Colby Rasmus is one of the highest touted prospects in baseball, and will immediately be put into the lineup in left field. I can see some big things happening from Rasmus this season, as it seems that every Cardinal hitter who has come through the system with power potential has seen it come to fruition. Jason Motte will start the year as closer, and I expect that if he is able to hang onto the job, he will be in line for 30-35 saves. There are some question marks with the infield and the starting pitching. The Cards have two guys in the infield who are career outfielders (Skip Schumacker and Joe Mather), and the starters include Joel Piniero, who will be going into his second full season as a starter, and Chris Carpenter is still recovering from shouler and elbow troubles. Still, I think they have enough with Wainwright, Lohse, and Wellemeyer just in case either of them don't pan out.

Pick: Over

Tampa Bay Devil Rays (97): O/U 89:

Why am I supposed to believe that the Rays can't do it again, or at least come close to doing what they did last year? They are returning everyone from their starting lineup, and if anything, they have gotten better with the addition of Matt Joyce. If B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford can stay healthy, Tampa could sneak up to the 100-win mark. If anything, maybe you have to worry about Percival as the closer. Other than that, I can't find many weaknesses here.

Pick: Over

Texas Rangers (79): O/U 75:

How many years have we had this thought: "Hmmm, the Rangers...if only they had pitching." Well, we go back to that thought again this year, as the Rangers inexplicably could not find any starters in the market. However, the Rangers do have plenty of offense. Jarrod Saltalamacchia will begin the year behind the plate, and could receive competition from Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez throughout the year. At first, Chris Davis is my #1 candidate for breakout player of the year. Kinsler is one of the best offensive second basemen in the game. Michael Young will start the year at third to make room for Elvis Andrus. This will be Young's second position change, and one that he was not too thrilled about. That could be a developing story this season. The outfield is an interesting one. Josh Hamilton thrilled everyone with his barrage at the Home Run Derby, but saw his second half numbers trail off, much like Bobby Abreu's did three years ago after he set the single round record. Still, I think Hamilton will be able to rebound this season and put together huge numbers. Many have Nelson Cruz on pace for a 25/90 season, and David Murphy has definitely shown flashes that he could be an above-average outfielder. The pitching is and will continue to be the reason that this team cannot contend for a title. Still, the offense alone should get the Rangers to the .500 level.

Pick: Over

Toronto Blue Jays (86): O/U 79:

This is another example of a team I simply cannot see regressing. They return everyone from last year's 86-win team, and will hopefully have B.J. Ryan and Scott Rolen for an entire season, so why will they go backwards? Plus, they will have Travis Snider in a full-time role. I just don't see it happening.

Pick: Over

Washington Nationals (59): O/U 72:

I like the Nationals, I really do, but do I like them enough to see thirteen more wins? Ehhh...I'm not so sure about that. They have two breakout candidates in Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes. I'm especially high on Milledge, and I think he could be one of the top 5 leadoff hitters in the game as this season progresses. They made a huge upgrade in their lineup with the signing of Adam Dunn, and although they probably wish they had Mark Teixeira, Dunn will still get 35-40 homers this year. Still though, you have to wonder about a starting pitching staff that has John Lannan as their #1. I like Hanrahan as the closer, but I don't see any kind of bridge to get to him, which could end up being a problem. I think the Nats will improve, but I'm thinking they are about two years away from making a serious run at .500.

Pick: Under

Absolute Best Bets:

White Sox and the Over (77.5)
Rays and the Over (89)
Angels and the Over (88.5)
Rangers and the Over (75)
Yankees and the Under (94.5)

Alright, well, hopefully you enjoyed that, and if you didn't, here's something I hope you do:

The Top 10 March Madness Moments:

Honorable Mentions: The Second Best Upset Call I Ever Had (2005), The Most Thrilling College Basketball Game I Have Ever Seen (2004), His Airness (1982), Nova (1985), Big Country (1995)

Alright, that's all for now. Oh, and here's to the 2008-09 Northeast Division Champion Boston Bruins! Finally, hockey is back (although it really never left, many were convinced that it did). Take care. Peace.

~Mell-o

Bracket Breakdown: Round Two

2009-03-21T11:06:00.000-04:00

"You know all of the things that I know."

So the tourney got off to an interesting start that saw me at 13-3 after Day 1, and then a fairly disastrous 8-8 record on Day 2. All I can say is this: I'm glad I changed my Wake Forest Final Four pick. That would have been real bad. I do have to give some credit to the Big 10. I said that conference would "flame out," and they still have four teams left (and they really should have had five if Ohio State didn't blow a big lead against Siena). The ACC has been awful. The aforementioned Wake, BC, Clemson, and FSU all going down in the first round. The two games I totally regret not picking were the Cal/Maryland game and the Utah/Arizona game. They were too easy, and I think I may have psyched myself out there. However, I was 3-1 in the 8-9 games, and I can't remember the last time that happened. So, it's on to the second round:

Saturday Games:

1:05: (3) Villanova vs. (6) UCLA; East Region; Philadelphia:

Both these teams survived pretty big scares in round one, with 'Nova losing by double-digits in the second half against American, and UCLA barely able to hold on against VCU. Again, I have to stick with the "home" team here. UCLA looked totally jet-lagged on Thursday, and I don't see them getting their feet underneath them today.

Original Pick: Villanova, Present Pick: Villanova

3:20: (2) Memphis vs. (10) Maryland; West Region; Kansas City:

Talk about scares. Memphis saw their tourney lives hang in the balance against Cal St. Northridge, but I think that may have been a wake-up call. Here's the thing: There are only two ways this could go: (A) The team who almost gets beat responds with a resurgence of intensity in the next game, or (B) the team who almost gets beat is really not that good, and they are being exposed going against tougher opponents. Memphis is a bit of an unknown because three of their players from last year's National Runner-Up team got drafted, and they play no one in Conference USA. Maryland got incredibly lucky that Cal decided to not show up for their game. Seriously, that could have been one of the most dreadful tourney performances I have ever seen. The Bears looked like they were running with concrete boots. On inbounds plays against the Maryland press, they stood still, and even got a 5-second call against them, which you rarely ever see.

Original Pick: Memphis, Present Pick: Memphis

3:35: (1) Connecticut vs. (9) Texas A&M; West Region; Philadelphia:

UConn was able to play without Calhoun on the bench Thursday, but he will be back on the sidelines today against the Aggies. This game scares me because (A) I really don't like UConn's chances at all this year, and (B) A&M can jump out to really quick starts, just like they did against BYU, who they simply dominated the entire game.

Original Pick: Connecticut, Present Pick: Connecticut

5:40: (4) Washington vs. (5) Purdue; West Region; Portland:

Not picking U-Dub and showing my homerism for Miss. St. really cam back to bite me. I actually really liked the Huskies all along, and yet I went with the "hot" team, which sometimes works, but more often than not, it doesn't. So, I regret that to an extent. Purdue let Northern Iowa stay in the game, but in the end, they simply had too much size, which is why I think they will move on here.

Original Pick: Purdue; Present Pick: Purdue

5:45: (1) North Carolina vs. (8) LSU; South Region; Greensboro:

I think it will be easy to look past LSU for Carolina. I have a feeling they will hold out Lawson, which could hurt them on the perimeter, because I'm not sure if Ellington can stop Thornton. Still though, LSU is susceptible to perimeter scoring, which is why Butler was able to get back in the game against the Tigers in the first round, and which is why I think that, while UNC may not have its best game, they will still be able to win by double-digits.

Original Pick: North Carolina; Present Pick: North Carolina

5:50: (2) Oklahoma vs. (10) Michigan; South Region; Kansas City:

You know, I have no regrets about picking Clemson to go to the Elite Eight (you know, outside of the fact that they lost and all). I watched the entire Clemson/Michigan game, and Clemson was absolutely dominating down low, but Ogelsby simply could not get a shot to drop, and instead of looking for someone else, he kept shooting. I didn't know this before, but Ogelsby, in two years in the tourney, has not made a three pointer...not one. Interesting. I feel like the maze and blue will get dominated down low again, but this time, I suspect that they will be encountering a better shooting team in the Sooners.

Original Pick: Clemson; Present Pick: Oklahoma

8:10: (4) Gonzaga vs. (12) Western Kentucky; South Region; Portland:

The way the 'Zags rallied against Akron in the first round makes me wonder if this is the year they break through as a top seed. I mean they have been a top-4 seed for what, like six years in a row? Isn't this an example of the Coke Machine Corollary in full effect? They keep rocking it, eventually it falls over right?

Original Pick: Gonzaga

8:15: (2) Duke vs. (7) Texas; East Region; Greensboro:

Again, I feel like putting Scheyer at the point may have turned the tides for the Dukies (unfortunately), and in Texas, I just don't see them getting a good game here.

Original Pick: Duke, Present Pick: Duke

Sunday Games:

12:10: (3) Syracuse vs. (6) Arizona State; South Region; Miami:

For what it's worth, Jonny Flynn went from being a late first-rounder to a lottery pick in the last two weeks. Harden from State scares me though. If he gets going, and their complementary guys step up, it's going to be tough for the Orange to survive. I'll stick with my original pick in hopes that the Big East keeps going.

Original Pick: Syracuse, Present Pick: Syracuse

2:20: (4) Xavier vs. (12) Wisconsin; East Region; Boise:

Luckily, I was not one of the crowd to pick Florida State to make the Sweet Sixteen, and believe me, there were a lot of them. So, I'm riding Xavier, a team that, again, I felt was totally unappreciated by everyone considering they were an Elite Eight team last year.

Original Pick: Xavier, Present Pick: Xavier

2:30: (3) Kansas vs. (11) Dayton; West Region; Minneapolis:

This is one of the few occasions where I got both of these wrong, so this will at least give some rooting interest now. Kansas was very close to getting bounced by North Dakota State in the first round, but was able to get past the cinderella factor and the overwhelming support towards the Sioux, which makes me believe that they can do it again against Dayton, who I still don't understand how they beat the Mountaineers on Friday.

Original Pick: West Virginia, Present Pick: Kansas

2:40: (12) Arizona vs. (13) Cleveland State; Midwest Region; Miami:

I really regret not taking Arizona over Utah in the first one. Everyone had 'Zona...damn it! Well, I'm leaning towards Arizona purely based on the fact that I don't even know if Cleveland State could play any better than they did against Wake, and they are going to have to play at least as well against 'Zona as they did on Friday. I really like State, but I think 'Zona may be too much.

Original Pick: Wake Forest, Present Pick: Arizona

2:50: (1) Pittsburgh vs. (8) Oklahoma State; East Region; Dayton:

DeJuan freggin' Blair

Original Pick: Pittsburgh, Present Pick: Pittsburgh

4:50: (3) Missouri vs. (6) Marquette; West Region; Boise:

Mizzou looked great in the first round, while Marquette was barely able to scrape by Utah State. I lost like every close game in the first round...that was frustrating.

Original Pick: Missouri, Present Pick: Missouri

5:00: (2) Michigan State vs. (10) Southern Cal; Midwest; Minneapolis:

I told you about BC...this whole betting with my head thing may be something to look into. Both these teams looked great in their openers, which means this could be potentially an interesting game, and a tough one for State.

Original Pick: Michigan State, Present Pick: Michigan State

5:20: (1) Louisville vs. (9) Siena; Midwest; Dayton:

Siena was a great call for me. Ohio State had that game won, and somehow Siena was able to tie the game up, send it to OT...and then another OT. Louisville looked great, and their road to the Final Four got made a lot easier by Arizona and Cleveland State knocking out the 4 and 5 seeds. I really think that unless Siena pulls out the upset, Louisville will be booking it for Indy and the Elite 8.

Original Pick: Louisville, Present Pick: Louisville

Alright, well, I threw out all the Saturday games, and in the games I had a potential winner in, I went 7-0, which brings me back to my original theory: For some reason, I am way better on Thursday/Saturday than I am on Friday/Sunday...I don't know what it is, but I just can't get it together on the Friday games...ever. Alright, well, I'm hoping that Sunday goes as well. Even though I lost two elite eight teams already, I still have a shot, so I'm pretty stoked. I'm already making a goal for next year...14-2 on one of the first round days...and so it was written. Alright, hope your brackets are coming to a positive fruition. Cheers. Peace.

~Mell-o

Bracket Breakdown: Round One

2009-03-18T16:25:00.000-04:00

"Will I live for another day?"

So, due to the fact that St. Patty's day fell right in the middle of the selection show and the start of the NCAA Tournament, it has been a fairly hectic week in terms of trying to get a hold on the brackets and what I'm thinking. While the last few rounds are a little cloudy, I think I have a fairly good feel on the first couple of rounds. In this post, I will be predicting the first round games taking place on Thursday and Friday. As each round progresses, I will be sharing my selections with you. This is probably the first time I not only have filled out a bracket, but will be predicting the actual tournament matchups as they unfold. So, yet another first for this site. Again, most of my logic was derived from Ken Pomeroy's statistics and also being as nonobjective as I can (although in games involving Duke, all bets are off). Also, I will be going through the games chronologically so not only do you get the picks, but you have a nice viewing guide as well. I'm always thinking about you guys...

Thursday Games:

12:20: (8) LSU vs. (9) Butler; South Region; Greensboro:
This is probably one of the most successful 8-9 matchups in the history of the tournament. Both teams had 26 wins. LSU has a big experience advantage starting four seniors, and from all the stats I have seen, this is going to be a real difficult team to bounce from the tourney for Butler...and maybe even UNC in the next round. Their one real weakness is defending the three though, so look for Butler to take advantage of that. Otherwise, I don't see Butler having a real chance considering they have no bench, experience, or any post presence to slow down the Tiger offense.

Pick: LSU

12:25: (2) Memphis vs. (15) Cal State Northridge; West Region; Kansas City:
I love how Memphis will be able to use the fact that they did not get a #1 seed to their advantage. The team hasn't lost a conference game in like three years...I don't care what conference you play in, that's really impressive. Loving Memphis this year. Remember how the free throw shooting did them in last year? Well, believe it or not, it's one of their strengths this year.

Pick: Memphis

12:30: (8) BYU vs. (9) Texas A&M; West Region; Philadelphia:
BYU has a rare thing going for them. They can shoot and defend the three, make a high percentage of field goals, and have a nice down low presence that limits opponents' shooting. However, Texas A&M has one thing that will become a common theme of my picks: free throws. They can shoot them, they can limit how many they give up, and they make it a point to get to the line early and often. They shoot the threes and have a major size advantage.

Pick: Texas A&M

2:30: (5) Purdue vs. (12) Northern Iowa; West Region; Portland:
Purdue has suddenly become the "sexy" sleeper for everyone's brackets, and I know of a lot of people that even have them getting by UConn in the Sweet Sixteen. I have been high on Northern Iowa this season, but right now, I really like the Boilermakers like everyone else. Plus, Northern Iowa has problems with the three ball. They don't get enough of them, and they give up way too many.

Pick: Purdue

2:50: (1) UNC vs. (16) Radford; South Region; Greensboro:
The only real significance of this game will be to see how Ty Lawson plays, or if he plays at all. This has to be one of the bigger stories going into the tournament, and if he does not go in this game, expect Radford to come close to covering the 22-point spread.

Pick: UNC

2:55: (7) California vs. (10) Maryland; West Region; Kansas City:
This is a total coin-flip game. Basically, it comes down to whether you prefer offense or defense. Cal will bring the offense, and the Terps will have their D. Still, for me, I can't see past how bad a shooting team Maryland is, and while they do make up for it in a way on defense, I never like going with a team who can only play defense. So, I'll stick with the Bears and the offense.

Pick: California

3:00: (1) UConn vs. (16) Chattanooga; West Region; Philadelphia:
If you've read my stuff recently, you probably know that I am not big on Hasheem Thabeet. To me, I can't get past his preseason rant about how he was better than Harangody and Hansbrough and everyone else. Truth be told, he plays two or three comparable big men a year, so of course he should dominate against guys 6-7 inches shorter than him. Not big on the Huskies this time around.

Pick: UConn

5:00: (4) Washington vs. (13) Mississippi State; West Region; Portland:
I know that Mississippi State barely made it in and had to win the SEC just to gain a spot. Still, when you break them down, State has an exceptionally good team. They have a ton of strengths, not a lot of weaknesses, good height, and a fairly good SOS ranking. While they lack in bench minutes and experience, that's something you really can't concern yourself about if you're picking a team to only go one round. U-Dub has an amazing defense, which does have me a little concerned. Still, the Bulldogs are hot, and after a convincing run through the SEC, I think they have at least one more good game in them.

Pick: Mississippi State

7:10: (7) Clemson vs. (10) Michigan; South Region; Kansas City:
You will not hear this too often, so get ready...I really like Clemson in this tournament. I think they have a complete team in every form. One aspect of Clemson's strengths I like, and one of the aspects I really looked at when making my picks, was their offensive tempo. This basically means they are able to get up and down the floor real quick and get as many offensive possessions as they possibly can. This will be the beginning of my absolute hatred of anything coming out of the Big 10. I just see basically the entire conference flaming out pretty quickly, and I think people hold those same sentiments, and are actually hoping for it because, unless you live in Big 10 country, or even if you do, you probably think that brand of basketball...well...sucks.

Pick: Clemson

7:10: (7) Texas vs. (10) Minnesota; East Region; Greensboro
In case you missed it from a few lines ago, I think this year, the Big 10 is just going to do absolutely terrible in the tourney (with two exceptions). The fact that Minnesota got an at-large bid is stunning to me, and their reward is getting Texas, who at one point was in the top 5 in the country this year (although Georgetown was also there and they barely made the NIT).

Pick: Texas

7:20: (3) Villanova vs. (14) American; East Region; Philadelphia
Villanova probably got the cushiest draw of anyone in the entire tournament, starting a whopping 17 miles from campus for their first round game. 'Nova does a lot of good things, like tempo, crashing the offensive boards, shooting percentage, and what puts them over the top for is not only do they shoot free throws well, but they have a good free throw distribution percentage, which will come in handy, especially once the home crowd starts getting into it.

Pick: Villanova

7:25: (4) Gonzaga vs. (13) Akron; South Region; Portland:
A lot of people have pointed this out, and I will second it as well: Gonzaga playing in Portland is a huge advantage for them. This is one of the better geographical draws they have ever got, staying up in the Pacific Northwest. While I hate the idea of former cinderellas attempting to make a run, Gonzaga has set themselves up nicely to at least get to the round of 16.

Pick: Gonzaga

9:40: (2) Duke vs. (15) Binghamton; East Region; Greensboro:
It took them a while, but Duke may have figured out how to put a consistently competitive team on the floor with the moves Coach K recently made to get more size and power on the court. See, this upsets me, because there stands a chance that Duke can make a fairly good run this year...I'm not happy...

Pick: Duke

9:40: (2) Oklahoma vs. (15) Morgan State; South; Kansas City:
They have the best player and the best coach in the country...at least according to me. Normally, this would not be a good combination. However, if the Sooners can get by Clemson in the second round (and I'm telling you, that one will be a dogfight), it sets up really well for them to get into the Final Four.

Pick: Oklahoma

9:50: (6) UCLA vs. (11) VCU; East Region; Philadelphia:
UCLA is an amazing team because they are fully capable of not only beating VCU, but beating 'Nova in Philly as well. However, they are also fully capable of getting destroyed by the Rams in round one, and actually, a lot of people are liking the upset here based on UCLA's recent play and the fact that they will be traveling cross-country for this one. In the end, UCLA just has more ammunition than VCU, and while they very well could lose this game, the numbers say otherwise.

Pick: UCLA

9:55: (5) Illinois vs. (12) Western Kentucky; South Region; Portland:
This game set up perfectly for me...I needed to pick a 12-seed (check), love a team that not only shoots the three well, but they shoot a lot of them (check), and I hate the Big 10 (check). Since 1989, there have only been two years that a 12-seed did not win a first round game. So, it's either 'Zona or Western Kentucky...it's gonna happen.

Pick: Western Kentucky

Friday Games:

12:15: (3) Syracuse vs. (14) Stephen F. Austin; South Region; Miami:
I really do not like the 'Cuse in the tournament, and I really haven't liked them since 'Melo and Hakim Warrick won a title, and then the Orange subsequently lost the next year to UVM in the first round. I just don't like this team anymore in the tourney, Remember last year when they made that magical run through the Big East, got seeded way too high, then got the bejeezus beaten out of them by Texas A&M? This round I can see it happening, next round, maybe, but past that, forget about it.

12:25: (8) Oklahoma State vs. (9) Tennessee; East Region; Dayton:
In hindsight, I'm looking at my bracket, and there is definitely some SEC homerism going on. Both of these teams are not huge on the whole defense thing, which is okay for this game. What sold me on Tennessee is the dramatic size advantage they possess over Okie State.

Pick: Tennessee

12:30: (6) Marquette vs. (11) Utah State; West Region; Boise:
Without looking this up, I would have to say that Utah State's 31 wins are the most ever for an eleven seed. I might be wrong, but that's a lot of wins for a team under the 8-line. I said all along that Utah State would be a team that could make a potential run from a 10-spot, and seeing them at 11 makes me think I could be on to something.

Pick: Utah State

12:30: (3) Kansas vs. (14) North Dakota State; Midwest Region; Minneapolis:
I was not high on Kansas going into the Big 12 Tournament, now I really don't like them one bit. I've been on the North Dakota State bandwagon ever since I saw them coming in the 60's in Pomeroy's rankings, which made me think that they could potentially get a 9 or 10 seed. So, a little disrespect there. Also, they're playing way up north in Minnesota and it's State's first ever tourney bid after being in D-II purgatory for almost a decade...you can't tell me the Fighting Sioux won't have a huge following at this game.

Pick: North Dakota State

2:45: (6) Arizona State vs. (11) Temple; South Region; Miami:
Originally, I was big on Arizona State, and my initial reaction was to pencil them in for this game. However, I consciously looked over the stats just to double check. While Arizona State is very impressive, Temple is actually equally as impressive, and from my experience, if you have a 5-12, 6-11, or 7-10 game, and you have two evenly matched teams, you have to go with the low seed.

Pick: Temple

2:55: (1) Pittsburgh vs. (16) East Tennessee State; East Region; Dayton:
Two words: DeJuan Blair

Pick: Pittsburgh

3:00: (3) Missouri vs. (14) Cornell; West Region; Boise:
Not only is Missouri one of those teams that have been hovering around that I really like, but they have a kid named Lyons on their team...need I say more...

Pick: Missouri

3:00: (6) West Virginia vs. (11) Dayton; Midwest Region; Minneapolis:
It's West Virginia, it's the tournament...expect good things. Everywhere I look, everyone is loving the Mountaineers to not only get past the Flyers here, but to also potentially knocking off Kansas or, hopefully, North Dakota State. I'm really impressed with how well WVU played defense this year. This is a team that is known for their perimeter shooting, and yet this year, that would actually be considered a weakness for this team.

Pick: West Virginia

7:10: (1) Louisville vs. (16) Morgan State; Midwest Region; Dayton:
...ehhh...I'm not sold on Louisville...not in the least bit. Oh they're a good team, but the #1 overall seed...it's questionable at best.

Pick: Louisville

7:10: (5) Utah vs. (12) Arizona; Midwest Region; Miami:
Okay, this is a game that I've gone back and forth a thousand times, and I'm still pretty much befuddled. So, I'm going to go with what I had originally, which was Utah because they make a ton of threes and they are an absolutely huge team. Quick side note: Did anyone else realize that both the Arizona teams are playing in Miami? Of all the places to go for a team from Arizona, I think Miami has to be the optimal location for an opening round game.

Pick: Utah

7:20: (7) Boston College vs. (10) Southern Cal; Midwest Region; Minneapolis:
I really hate to go against BC because, well, they're the only New England team in the tournament (somehow Minnesota is a better team than Providence...right...), and they are a team that could potentially do a lot of damage considering their resume this season (wins over UNC and Duke), but Southern Cal is just too big and too explosive for the Eagles to handle. I still think this will be a great game, and I'll be pulling for BC regardless...but I have to go with my head here.

Pick: Southern Cal

7:25: (4) Xavier vs. (13) Portland State; East Region; Boise:
Xavier is an interesting team because they made it to the Elite Eight last year and really had a shot of making the Final Four. This year, no one's talking about them, and they were pretty much out of the news outside of their loss in the A-10 tourney. I like this team to the point where I was considering them in the Final Four this year...no joke.

Pick: Xavier

9:40: (8) Ohio State vs. (9) Siena; Dayton; Midwest Region; Dayton:
Ohio State could very well have a Davidson-like advantage this year playing their opening round games an hour outside of Columbus. Look, I have been riding Siena all year long. I think this team is absolutely dynamite, and I really think Ohio State is a one-headed team, which Siena is fully capable of stopping. Personally, I just want whoever wins this game to beat Louisville the next round By the way, Siena is located in Loudonville. NY in case you were curious (I know I was), and it's surprisingly eleven hours from Dayton...did New York get bigger on me?

Pick: Siena

9:40: (4) Wake Forest vs. (13) Cleveland State; Midwest Region; Miami:
Wake, like Xavier, I considered, and are still considering for the Final Four. This is a team that should be amongst the five or six best teams in the country. I also really like Cleveland State, which puts me in a fascinating situation. In putting Wake even in the Elite Eight, I could potentially lose them in the first round. This is one of the drawbacks about picking a non-#1 or #2 to make it that far. Still, if this team plays to its potential, they absolutely have the makings of a Final Four team.

Pick: Wake Forest

9:50: (2) Michigan State vs. (15) Robert Morris; Midwest Region; Minneapolis:
Imagine playing the opening round in the Metrodome? They've had a bunch of championship games there, and yet, they were tapped to host the first and second round games...interesting. Michigan State is basically going to be on a Big 10 tour on the road to Detroit, playing in Minnesota in the first round, and potentially Indianapolis in the third and fourth. They were so close to getting a 1 seed, but things could have been a lot worse. They are setting up very nicely, and quite frankly, I don't even see them getting challenged until their potential Elite Eight showdown with either Wake Forest or Louisville.

Pick: Michigan State

9:55: (5) Florida State vs. (12) Wisconsin; East Region; Boise:
I absolutely hate this game. I really just don't like either team, and the only reason I'll be paying attention to it, as with every game, is that it counts for a point, and hey, you never know. The final score in the bracket pool could very well be based on this game, so, I have to investigate. Upon further review, the Seminoles shoot and make a bunch of threes, and I really dislike the Big 10. So there you go...

Pick: Florida State

I am going to try and get my second round picks up as soon as I can. With work and everything, time is tight, but for some reason, I have a feeling that this will start to take priority as soon as I see four games happening at the same time. Also, did you happen to notice the amazingly long run of Midwest regional games on Friday night? Couldn't they have set that up a little better? Six of the eight games are being played after 7:00 on Friday night. So potentially, you could be looking good when you get home from work, and after you go out and have a few beers, you could potentially have an entire section of the bracket wiped out. So, I wish you all good luck. Make it happen. Peace.

~Mell-o

The Mega NCAA Tourney Preview

2009-03-09T21:14:00.000-04:00

"If I'm not smiling, I'm just thinking."

Alright, so Championship Week is here, and with it will come my biggest March Madness preview ever (topping the astounding 1 that I've done). Still, more than ever, you need to be objective when you look at the tournament. Basically, anything can happen. Last year, the myth that four #1's couldn't make the Final Four was broken, and even despite that, top seeds are as vulnerable as they have ever been. Of course, there are teams that rise above the competition right now, but even so, you can't forget that anyone can beat anyone else on any given night. It's shown with like eight different #1 teams in the country getting knocked off within a week of hitting the top spot. So, here's a breakdown of every team in the tournament...every single one. It doesn't matter if the team is in the Play-In game, they're getting their due here. So, I will bring the stats first, and then, I will break down each matchup and potential matchup that could transpire down the road. I'm starting this on the Monday before the selection show, and I will be updating this as the games unfold this week. All this information can be found at Ken Pomeroy's website, which is simply brilliant.

Because this may get a little complicated, here's a legend to at least attempt to explain what all this is. A category is listed as a "strength" if the team ranks in the top 100 nationally, and a "weakness" if the team ranks below 200th in the country. For individuals, their categories are listed for stats that they rank in the top 500 nationally in:

Legend:

Team Name (Conference, Record, Pomeroy Rank (#Rank), Luck Factor)

Off Eff./Def. Eff.: Offensive Efficiency/Defensive Efficiency (Points Scored/Given Up For Every 100 Possessions

Tempo: FGA-OR+TO+0.475xFTA

Adj. FG%/ Adj. Def. FG%: (FGM + 0.5*3PM)/FGA

Block%: Blocked Shots/ Opponents' Two-Point Attempts

Steal%: Steals/Defensive Possessions

FTA/FGA: Free Throw Attempts/Field Goal Attempts

3PA/FGA: Three Pointers Attempts/Field Goal Attempts

A/FGM: Assists/Field Goals Made

3PT Dist./2PT Dist./FT Dist.: Percentage of Total Points Distributed To Threes, Twos, and Free Throws

SOS: (Team Component/Opponent Component/Overall/Non-Conference)

Bench: Amount of Minutes Played By Bench and % of Total Minutes They Play

Experience: Collective Average of How Many Years Each Player Has Been With Team

Effective Height: The Average Amount of Inches A Team Has Over Their Opponent

Avg. Height: Average Height of The Entire Team

%Mins: % of Team's Minutes A Player Has Played

ORtg: Personal Offensive Efficiency

%Poss: Amount of Possessions That End Directly With A Player's Actions

%Shots: Percentage of Total Team Shots

eFG%: Same as FG% but Threes Are Given More Credit

TS%: The 2PT% A Player Would Need To Score The Points He Produces On All Shooting Attempts

OR%: PlayerOR / [%Min * (Team OR + Opp. DR)]

DR%: PlayerDR / [%Min * (Team DR + Opp. OR)]

ARate: A/FGM by Player's Teammates

TORate: Personal Possessions That Led To Turnovers

%Block: Blocks/(%Min * Opponents’ two-point attempts)

%Steal: Steals/(%Min * Team Possessions)

FC/40: Fouls Committed Per 40 Minutes

FD/40: Fouls Drawn Per 40 Minutes

FTRate: 100*FTA/FGA

Akron (MAC, 23-12, .7231 (91), Luck: 202):

Strengths: Def. Eff., Def. FG%, Def. TO%, Def. 3PT%, Def. 2PT%, FT%, Block%,
Steal%, 3PA, A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

Weaknesses: FG%, TO%, Def. Off. Reb.%, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, Def. Block%, Steal%, Def. 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

SOS: 252/153/197/167

Bench: 36.0% (62)

Experience: 1.49 Years (227)

Eff. Height: 1.5 (87)

Avg. Height: 76.3" (194)

Best Player(s):
McKnight: %Poss, %Shots, FD/40

Second Tier Player(s):
Hitchens: %Poss, %Shots, ARate, Stl%
McKnight: TORate, FD/40, FTRate
Linhart: TS%, DR%, Stl%
Roberts: TS%, FC/40

Alabama State (SWAC, 20-9, .4088 (202), Luck: 134):

Strengths: FG%, Def. FG%, TO%, Def. 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, Def. FT%, 2PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def. Eff., Def. TO%, Off. Reb.%, FT%, Def. Block%, Def. Steal%, 3PT Dist., Def. 3PT Dist., FT Dist.

SOS: 340/341/343/52

Bench: 32.1% (138)

Experience: 2.08 (49)

Eff. Height: +1.5 (85)

Avg. Height: 77.5" (46)

Best Player(s):
Brooks: %Mins., ORtg, %Poss, eFG%, TS%, ARate, FC/40, FD/40, FTRate
Fitch: ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, OR%, TORate

Second-Tier Player(s):

Hayles: %Mins, eFG%, FC/40

Kickingstallionsims: Ortg, TORate, Blk%

Provitt: DR%

American (PATR, 23-7, .6386 (113), Luck: 7):

Strengths: Off. FG%, Def. FG%, Off Reb. %, 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, Def. FT%

Weaknesses: FTA/FGA, FT%, Def. FT%, Block%, Def. Block%, Def. Steal%

SOS: 320/204/299/220

Bench: 21.4% (328)

Experience: 2.62 years (2)

Eff. Height: -1.1 (240)

Avg. Height: 74.9" (335)

Best Player(s):
Carr: Mins., % Poss., % Shots, FC/40

Second Tier Player(s):
Mercer: % Mins., eFG%, ARate, FC/40, FTRate
Gilmore: % Mins., ORtg, eFG%, TS%
Hendra: DR%
Borden: Stl%
Nichols: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, Blk%

Arizona (P10, 19-12, .8846 (35), Luck: 209):

Strengths: Off. Eff., FG%, Off. Reb.%, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, 2PT%, FT%, Block%, Steal%, Def. 3PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def/ FG%, Def. TO%, Def. Off. Reb.%, Def. 3PT%, 3PA/FGA, Def. 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 7/12/5/88

Bench: 18.6% (339)

Experience: 1.43 years (2.49)

Eff. Height: +2.5 (36)

Avg. Height: 76.9" (110)

Best Player(s):
Budinger: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, FC/40
Hill: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Wise: %Mins, ORtg, eFG%, TS%, ARate, Stl%

Fogg: ORtg

Johnson: ORtg

Arizona State (P10, 22-8, .9404 (15), Luck: 203):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., FG%, Def FG%, TO%, Def. Off. Reb%, FTA/FGA, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, Def. 3PT%, 2PT%, FT%, Block%, 3PA, FGA, A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. 3PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Tempo, Off Reb.%, Def. FT%, Def. Block%, Def. 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, 2PT. Dist., Def. 2PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 20/31/27/210

Bench: 19.9% (337)

Experience: 1.59 Years (200)

Eff. Height: -2.7 (317)

Avg. Height: 76.4" (179)

Best Player(s):
Harden: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, ARate, Stl%, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Pendergrapgh: %Mins, ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, TORate, BLK%, FTRate
Kuksiks: %Mins, ORtg, eFG%, TS%

Binghampton (AE, 22-8, .4992 (162), Luck: 4):

Strengths: Def. FG%, Tempo, TO%, FTA/FGA, Def. 3PT%, Def. 2PT%, Def. Block%, FT Dist, Def. FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def. Off. Reb%, Def. FTA/FGA, Def. FT%, Block%, A/FGM, Def. A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

SOS: 289/247/280/283

Bench: 26.3% (280)

Experience: 1.69 Years (165)

Eff. Height: -3.1 (327)

Avg. Height: 75.5" (301)

Best Player(s):
Rivera: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TORate, Stl%, FD/40, FTRate
Alvin: %Poss, ARate, Stl%, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Mayben: %Mins, ARate
Fuller: %Mins, ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, Blk%, FTRate

Boston College (ACC, 21-10, .8106 (66), Luck: 52):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. FG%, TO%, Off. Reb.%, Def. 3PT%, 2PT%, FT%, Def. Block%, Def. 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, Def. A/FGM, Def. 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def. TO%, Def. Off. Reb.%, Def. FT%, Block%, Def. Steal%, 3PT Dist., Def. 3PT Dist.

SOS: 51/71/59/284

Bench: 29.8% (202)

Experience: 1.26 Years (292)

Eff. Height: +1.1 (100)

Avg. Height: 77.4" (57)

Best Player(s):
Rice: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, TS%, ARate, Stl%, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Trapani: ORtg, %Shots, DR%, Blk%

Sanders: %Shots, eFG%, Blk%, Stl%

Raji: ORtg, OR%, TORate

Jackson: ORtg

Southern: OR%, Blk%

Butler (Horz, 26-5, .8660 (42), Luck: 176):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., FG%, Def FG%, Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, FT%, Steal%, 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Dist. 3PT Dist., FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Tempo, Def. FT%, Block%, Def. 3PA/FGA, 2PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

SOS: 152/69/105/42

Bench: 26.4% (275)

Experience: 0.67 Years (341)

Eff. Height: +0.5 (135)

Avg. Height: 76.1" (218)

Best Player(s):
Mack: %Mins, %Poss, %Shots, ARate
Howard: ORtg, %Poss, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, TORate, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Hayward: %Mins, ORtg, eFG%, TS%, DR%, TORate, Blk%, Stl%, FC/40, FTRate
Veasley: eFG%, TS%
Nored: ARate, FTRate

BYU (MWC, 24-6, .9420 (13), Luck: 263)

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Tempo, FG%, Def. FG%, TO%, Def. Off. Reb.%, 3PT%, Def. 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, FT%, Block%, Steal%, A/FGM, Def. A/FGM

Weaknesses: Off Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. FT%, Def. 3PA/FGA, FT Dist.

SOS: 73/80/73/132

Bench: 25.1% (299)

Experience: 1.62 Years (184)

Eff. Height: +2.1 (51)

Avg. Height: 77.2" (66)

Best Player(s):
Fredette: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, ARate, FC/40
Cummard: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, DR%, ARate, TORate, Blk%
Tavernari: %Mins, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, DR%, TORate, Stl%

Second-Tier Player(s):
Miles: Blk%
Emery: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, TORate, Stl%

California (Pac-10, 22-9, .8890 (29), Rank: 112):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., FG%, TO%, Def Off. Reb.%, 3PT%, 2PT%, FT%, Steal%, Def. 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, Def. A/FGM, 2PT, Def. 2PT%

Weaknesses: Def. TO%, FTA/FGA, Def. FT%, Def Block%, Def. Steal%, 3PA/FGA, 3PT Dist., Def. 3PT Dist., FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 25/25/28/214

Bench: 27.1% (263)

Experience: 1.58 Years (207)

Eff. Height: +0.8 (114)

Avg. Height: 77.0" (91)

Best Player(s):
Randle: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, eFG%, TS%, ARate, FC/40, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Christopher: %Mins, ORtg, %Shots, TORate, FC/40

Boykin: ORtg, OR%, DR%, TORate

Robertson: %Mins, ORtg, eFG%, TS%

Gutierrez: DR%, Stl%

Wilkes: ORtg, DR%, TORate, Blk%

Cal State Northridge (BW, 15-13, .6633 (107), Luck: 313):

Strengths: Def Eff., Tempo, FG%, Def. TO%, Off Reb.%, Def. 3PT%, 2PT%, Block%, Def. Steal%, Def. FT Dist.

Weaknesses: TO%, FTA/FGA, Def. FTA/FGA, Def. FT%, Steal%, Def. 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, Def. 2PT Dist., FT Dist.

SOS: 97/209/151/33

Bench: 41.4% (9)

Experience: 2.46 Years (8)

Eff. Height: +0.3 (143)

Avg. Height: 76.3" (187)

Best Player(s):
Jenkins: %Poss, ARate, Stl%
Mels: %Poss, %Shots, Stl%

Second-Tier Player(s):
Townsend: OR%, DR%, Blk%, Stl%
Galick: eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, FD/40, FTRate
Daniels: ORtg, Stl%, FD/40

Clemson (ACC, 23-7, .9337 (21), Rank: 148):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Tempo, FG%, Def. TO%, Off. Reb.%, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, Def. FT%, Def. Block%, Def. Steal%, Def. 3PA/FGA, 3PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def. Off. Reb%, FTA/FGA, Def. 3PT%, Steal%, A/FGM, Def. 3PT Dist., FT Dist., Def. FT%

SOS: 77/27/56/259

Bench: 30.6% (183)

Experience: 1.65 Years (176)

Eff. Height: -0.7 (200)

Avg. Height: 76.7" (134)

Best Player(s):
Rivers: %Mins, ORtg, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, TORate, Stl%, FC/40
Booker: %Mins, ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, TORate, Blk%, Stl%, FC/40, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Oglesby: ORtg, %Shots, TS%
Stitt: ARate, Stl%, FTRate
Sykes: OR%, Blk%

Cleveland State (Horz, 25-10, .8103 (68), Luck: 151):

Strengths: Def. Eff., Def. FG%, TO%, Def. TO%, Def. 3PT%, Def. 2PT%, Def. Steal%, Def. 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Tempo, FG%, Def. Off. Reb., 3PT%, 2PT%, Blk%, 3PA/FGA, 3PT Dist., Def. 3PT Dist.

SOS: 101/81/90/25

Bench: 27.6% (244)

Experience: 2.02 Years (64)

Eff. Height: -0.7 (205)

Avg. Height: 76.1" (223)

Best Player(s):

Jackson: %Mins, %Poss, DR%, ARate, FD/40, FTRate
Bullock: %Mins, %Poss, %Shots, DR%, TORate, FC/40, FD/40, FTRate

Second Tier Player(s):

Cole: %Mins, TORate
Tandy: OR%, DR%, Blk%
Brown: OR%, Stl%
Moore: Blk%

College Of Charleston (SC, 26-8, .4953 (164), Luck: 13):

Strengths: Off. Eff., FG%, TO%, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, 2PT%, Block%, Def. Block%, 3PA/FGA, Def. 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def. Eff., Def. TO%, Def. Off. Reb.%, Def. 3PT%, FT%, A/FGM, Def. 3PT Dist., FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 274/329/309/260

Bench: 29.7% (204)

Experience: 1.81 Years (119)

Eff. Height: +0.6 (130)

Avg. Height: 76.4" (171)

Best Player(s):
Goudelock: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, TORate, FC/40

Second-Tier Player(s):
Scott: eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, Blk%, Stl%
Monroe: ORtg
White: Ortg, TS%, FC/40, FTRate
Johnson: Ortg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, FTRate
Wiggins: TORate, Blk%, FC/40
Simmons: Ortg, OR%, Blk%

Connecticut (BE, 27-3, .9690 (3), Luck: 69):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., FG%, Def. FG%, TO%, Off. Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, Def. 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, Def. Block%, Def. A/FGM, Def. 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist., FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def. TO%, Def. FT%, Def. Steal%, 3PA/FGA, 3PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 14/39/25/187

Bench: 25.9% (287)

Experience: 2.20 Years (34)

Eff. Height: +5.9 (2)

Avg. Height: 78.2" (14)

Best Player(s):
Thabeet: %Mins, ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate
Adrien: %Mins, ORtg, OR%, DR%, TORate, Blk%, FC/40, FD/40, FTRate
Price: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, ARate, FC/40

Second-Tier Player(s):
Dyson: %Poss, %Shots, ARate, Stl%, FC/40, FD/40
Walker: TS%, ARate, FC/40, FTRate
Austrie: ORtg, TORate, FC/40
Robinson: OR%, Blk%, FC/40

Cornell (Ivy, 21-9, .6899 (100), Luck: 188):

Strengths: Off Eff., FG%, Def. FG%, Def. Off. Reb.%, 3PT%, Def. 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, FT%, Def. 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, Def. A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: FTA/FGA, Def. FT%, Def. 2PT Dist., 2PT Dist., FT Dist.

SOS: 295/235/282/172

Bench: 28.5% (226)

Experience: 1.91 Years (91)

Eff. Height: +1.6 (79)

Avg. Height: 77.4" (55)

Best Player(s):
Wittman: %Min, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, TORate, FC/40
Dale: ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, ARate, Stl%, FD/40

Second-Tier Player(s):
Foote: eFG%, TS%, DR%, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate
Reeves: ORtg, eFG%, TS%

Dayton (A10, 25-6, .7786 (80), Luck: 6):

Strengths: Def. Eff, Def. FG%, Def. TO%, Off Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, Def. 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. Block%, Steal%, A/FGM, Def. 3PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Tempo, FG%, 2PT%, FT%, Def. FT%, Block%, 3PA/FGA, Def. 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

SOS: 138/174/154/266

Bench: 40.8% (12)

Experience: 1.55 Years (215)

Eff. Height: +2.4 (40)

Avg. Height: 77.1" (86)

Best Player(s):
Wright: %Poss, %Shots, OR%, DR%, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Johnson: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, TORate
Warren: ARate, Stl%
Johnson: ORtg, OR%, DR%, TORate, FC/40

Duke (ACC, 25-6, .9607 (6), Luck: 98)

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Tempo, Def. FG%, TO%, Def. TO%, Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. FTA/FGA, 2PT%, FT%, Steal%, Def. Steal%, Def. 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, Def. 2PT% Dist., FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Block%, A/FGM, Def. 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 18/13/10/86

Bench: 34.5% (92)

Experience: 1.72 Years (150)

Eff. Height: +2.0 (58)

Avg. Height: 77.6" (40)

Best Player(s):
Singler: %Min, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, OR%, DR%, Blk%, Stl%, FD/40, FTRate
Henderson: ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, TORate, Blk%, Stl%, FC/40, FD/40

Second-Tier Player(s):
Scheyer: %Min, ORtg, TS%, TORate, Stl%, FC/40, FD/40, FTRate
Thomas: ORtg, OR%
Paulus: Stl%

East Tennessee State (ASun, 23-10, .6391 (112), Luck: 277):

Strengths: Tempo, FG%, TO%, Def. TO%, FTA/FGA, Def. FTA/FGA, Def. 3PT%, 2PT%, FT%, Block%, Def. Block%, Def. Steal%, Def. 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: 3PA/FGA, Def. 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 294/288/304/206

Bench: 28.4% (230)

Experience: 1.80 Years (127)

Eff. Height: -0.5 (184)

Avg. Height: 76.9" (109)

Best Player(s):
Pigram: %Min, %Poss, %Shots, ARate, Stl%, FC/40
Tiggs: %Min, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, Stl%, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Smith: %Min, ORtg, eFG%, TS%, DR%, TORate, FTRate

Florida State (ACC, 23-8, .8802 (36), Luck: 27):

Strengths: Def. Eff., Def. FG%, Def TO%, Off Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. 3PT%, Def. 2PT%, FT%, Def. Block%, Def. Steal%, Def. A/FGM, Def. 3PT Dist.

Weaknesses: TO%, Def. Off. Reb.%, Steal%, Def. 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, 2PT Dist.

SOS: 11/48/23/146

Bench: 36.4% (53)

Experience: 1.25 Years (293)

Eff. Height: +5.1 (4)

Avg. Height: 78.9" (1)

Best Player(s):
Douglas: %Min, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, TS%, ARate, TORate, Stl%, FC/40, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Alabi: OR%, DR%, Blk%
Echefu: DR%, FD/40
Reid: OR%, Blk%

Gonzaga (WCC, 26-5, .9653 (5), Luck: 204):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Tempo, TO%, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, Block%, Def. Block%, Steal%, Def. Steal%, Def. A/FGM, Def. 3PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. FT%, 3PA/FGA, Def. 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, Def. 2PT Dist., FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 99/81/88/14

Bench: 27.3% (255)

Experience: 2.07 Years (51)

Eff. Height: +5.0 (5)

Avg. Height: 78.5" (7)

Best Player(s):
Daye: %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, DR%, Blk%

Second-Tier Player(s):
Bouldin: %Min, ORtg, eFG%, TS%, TORate, Stl%, FC/40, FTRate
Pargo: ARate, Stl%, FC/40
Heytvelt: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, DR%, TORate, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate
Gray: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, TORate, FC/40

Illinois (B10, 23=8, .9174 (23), Luck: 120)

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., FG%, Def. FG%, TO%, Def. TO%, Def. FTA/FGA, Def. 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, FT%, Def. FT%, Block%, A/FGM, 2PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Tempo, Off Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. Steal%, 3PA/FGA, 3PT Dist., Def. 3PT Dist., FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 60/18/42/218

Bench: 24.8% (306)

Experience: 1.87 Years (110)

Eff. Height: +4.0 (12)

Avg. Height: 77.6"

Best Player(s):
McCamey: %Min, %Poss, ARate, FC/40

Second-Tier Player(s):
Davis: eFG%, DR%, TORate
Tisdale: %Shots, eFG%, TS%, Blk%
Brock: OR%, Stl%

Kansas (B12, 25-6, .9507 (10), Luck: 155)

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Tempo, FG%, Def. FG%, Off. Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, FT%, Block%, A/FGM, Def 3PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

Weaknesses: TO%, Def. TO%, Def. FT%, 3PA/FGA, Def. 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist.

SOS: 33/43/39/106

Bench: 27.4% (252)

Experience: 0.85 Years (335)

Eff. Height: +2.5 (37)

Avg. Height: 76.7" (131)

Best Player(s):
Collins: %Min, %Poss, %Shots, ARate, FC/40, FD/40
Morris: %Poss, OR%, DR%, Stl%, FD/40

Second-Tier Player(s):
Aldrich: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, TORate, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate
Taylor: eFG%, TS%, ARate, FTRate

Louisville (BE, 25-5, .9593 (8), Luck: 22):

Strengths: Off Eff., Def. Eff., Tempo, FG%, Def. FG%, Def. TO%, Def. Off. Reb.%, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, Def. 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, Def. Block%, Def. Steal%, 2PA/FGA, Def. 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: FTA/FGA, FT%, Def. 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist., FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 21/24/22/150

Bench: 31.5% (155)

Experience: 1.71 Years (152)

Eff. Height: +3.0 (22)

Avg. Height: 77.1" (84)

Best Player(s):
Clark: %Min, %Poss, OR%, DR%, Blk%, FC/40

Second-Tier Player(s):
Williams: %Min, DR%, ARate, Blk%, Stl%, FC/40
Samuels: %Poss, eFG%, TS%, OR%, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate
Sosa: ARate

LSU (SEC, 25-6, .8656 (43), Luck: 17):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Def. FG%, TO%, Off. Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, 3PT%, Def. 3PT%, Def. 2PT%, FT%, Block%, Def. Block%, Def. 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, 2PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def. TO%, 3PA/FGA, 3PT Dist., Def. 3PT Dist.

SOS: 132/151/133/320

Bench: 25.2% (297)

Experience: 2.28 Years (22)

Eff. Height: +0.5 (138)

Avg. Height: 77.7" (31)

Best Player(s):
Thornton: %Min, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, TORate, Stl%, FC/40, FD/40

Second-Tier Player(s):
Mitchell: %Min, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, OR%, TORate, Stl%, FD/40, FTRate
Temple: ARate, Stl%, FTRate,
Spencer: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, FC/40
Johnson: OR%, DR%, Blk%

Marquette (BE, 23-7, .9289 (22), Luck: 150):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Tempo, FG%, TO%, Def. TO%, Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. FTA/FGA, 2PT%, FT%, Def. FT%, Steal%, Def. Steal%, A/FGM, Def. 3PT Dist., FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def. FG%, Def. 3PT%, Def. 2PT%, Block%, Def. 3PA/FGA, 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 41/63/49/247

Bench: 24.6% (311)

Experience: 2.46 Years (7)

Eff. Height: -2.0 (293)

Avg. Height: 75.6" (290)

Best Player(s):
McNeal: %Min, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, ARate, Stl%, FD/40
Matthews: %Min, ORtg, %Poss, eFG%, TS%, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Hayward: %Min, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, TORate
James: ARate, TORate, Stl%, FC/40

Maryland (ACC, 20-13, .8420 (54), Luck: 69):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Def. FG%, TO%, Def. TO%, Def. FTA/FGA, Def. 2PT%, FT%, Def. Block%, Steal%, Def. Steal%, Def. 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: FG%, Def. Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, 3PT%, 2PT%, Block%, 3PA/FGA, Def. 3PA/FGA, 3PT Dist., FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 23/28/25/124

Bench: 29.7% (203)

Experience: 1.58 Years (208)

Eff. Height: -0.4 (180)

Avg. Height: 77.5" (51)

Best Player(s):

Vazquez: %Mins, %Poss, %Shots, ARate, FC/40

Second Tier Player(s):

Milbourne: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, TORate, Blk%
Bowie: ARate, Stl%, FTRate
Hayes: ARate, FC/40
Neal: ORtg, TORate
Mosley: Stl%

Memphis (CUSA, 28-3, .9784 (1), Luck: 173):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Def. FG%, TO%, Def TO%, Off. Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, Block%, Def. Block%, Steal%, Def. Steal%, FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

Weaknesses: 3PT%, 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. 3PT Dist.

SOS: 55/83/64/44

Bench: 26.6% (270)

Experience: 1.85 Years (114)

Eff. Height: +2.9 (25)

Avg. Height: 78.7" (2)

Best Player(s):
Evans: %Poss, %Shots, ARate, Blk%, Stl%, FD/40

Second-Tier Player(s):
Dozier: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate
Taggart: ORtg, TS%, OR%, DR%, TORate, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate
Anderson: %Min, ARate, FC/40, FTRate
Mack: TORate, FC/40

Michigan (B10, 19-12, .8354 (55), Luck: 103):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., TO%, Def. FTA/FGA, Def. 3PT%, 2PT%, FT%, Steal%, 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Tempo, Off Reb.%, FTA/FGA, 3PT%, Def. 2PT%, Def. FT%, Block%, Def. Block%, Def. A/FGM, Def. 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist., FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 32/7/19/138

Bench: 35.3% (72)

Experience: 1.27 Years (288)

Eff. Height: -0.8 (213)

Avg. Height: 76.1" (222)

Best Player(s):
Harris: %Mins, %Poss, %Shots, DR%, ARate, FC/40, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Sims: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, TORate, Blk%
Douglass: ARate, FC/40

Michigan State (B10, 25-5, .9487 (11), Luck: 14):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Def. FG%, Off Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, 3PT%, Def. 3PT%, Block%, Steal%, A/FGM, Def. 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist., FT Dist.

Weaknesses: TO%, Def. FT%, Def. Steal%, 3PA/FGA, Def. 3PA/FGA, 3PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

SOS: 16/16/15/51

Bench: 36.5% (52)

Experience: 1.58 Years (204)

Eff. Height: +2.3 (45)

Avg. Height: 76.7" (137)

Best Player(s):
Lucas: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, ARate, TORate, FC/40, FD/40, FTRate
Morgan: %Poss, OR%, DR%, FD/40

Second-Tier Player(s):
Allen: %Poss, %Shots
Roe: OR%, DR%, Blk%, FD/40
Suton: Ortg, OR%, DR%
Walton: Arate, Stl%

Minnesota (B10, 22-10, .8653 (45), Luck: 76):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Def. FG%, Def. TO%, Off. Reb.%, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, FT%, Block%, Def. Block%, Def. Steal%, A/FGM, Def. 3PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Tempo, TO%, FTA/FGA, 3PT%, Def. 3PT%, Def. FT%, Steal%, Def. 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

SOS: 42/29/36/163

Bench: 40.7% (13)

Experience: 1.19 Years (306)

Eff. Height: +1.7 (73)

Avg. Height: 77.1" (87)

Best Player(s):

Westbrook: %Poss, %Shots, FD/40

Second Tier Player(s):

Joseph: ARate, Stl%, FC/40
Nolen: ARate, Stl%, FTRate
Johnson: Blk%, Stl%
Hoffarber: FC/40
Sampson: ORtg, OR%, TORate, Blk%
Iverson: OR%, Blk%

Mississippi State (SEC, 23-12, .8268 (60), Luck: 175):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Tempo, Def. FG%, FTA/FGA, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, Def. 2PT%, Def. FT%, Def. Block%, 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, 3PT Dist., FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def. TO%, Off. Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, Block%, A/FGM, 2PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 86/71/76/175

Bench: 25.2% (296)

Experience: 1.04 Years (321)

Eff. Height: +1.5 (83)

Avg. Height: 77.1" (83)

Best Player(s):

Stewart: %Mins, TORate, FTRate
Bost: %Mins, ARate, Stl%, FD/40, FTRate

Second Tier Player(s):

Varnado: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, Blk%, TORate, FD/40, FTRate
Johnson: %Mins, ORtg, eFG%, TS%, TORate, FC/40
Turner: ORtg, Stl%

Missouri (B12, 26-2, .9507 (10), Luck: 92):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Tempo, FG%, Def. FG%, TO%, Def. TO%, Off. Reb.%, 3PT%, Def. 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. FT%, Block%, Steal%, Def. Steal%, Def. 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, 2PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def. Off. Reb.%, Def. FTA/FGA, FT%, 3PA/FGA, 3PT Dist., Def. 3PT Dist., FT Dist.

SOS: 92/45/67/244

Bench: 38.7% (23)

Experience: 1.63 Years (181)

Eff. Height: +2.0 (56)

Avg. Height: 77.9" (25)

Best Player(s):
Lyons: ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, OR%, DR%, Blk%, FD/40

Second-Tier Player(s):
Carroll: ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, TORate, Blk%, Stl%, FD/40, FTRate
Tiller: ARate, Stl%
Denmon: TORate, Stl%

Morehead State (OVC, 19-15, .4895 (169), Luck: 147)

Strengths: Off. Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. 2PT%, FT%, Def. Block%, Def. 3PT Dist., FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

Weaknesses: FG%, TO%, Def. TO%, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, Def. 3PT%, Block%, 3PA/FGA, Def. 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, Def. A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

SOS: 161/310/230/114

Bench: 24.9% (303)

Experience: 1.59 Years (199)

Eff. Height: -4.1 (341)

Avg. Height: 75.8" (255)

Best Player(s):
Faried: ORtg, %Poss, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, Blk%, Stl%, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Buchanan: %Mins, ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, FC/40, FD/40, FTRate
Harper: %Mins, ARate, Blk%
Murray: FD/40
Stallworth: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, TORate

Morgan State (MEAC, 21-11, .5581 (139), Luck: 141)

Strengths: Def. Eff., Def. FG%, Def. TO%, Off. Reb.%, Def. 3PT%, Def. 2PT%, Def. 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, 2PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Off. Eff., FG%, Def. Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. FTA/FGA, 2PT Dist., FT%, Block%, 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist., FT Dist.

SOS: 307/274/311/96

Bench: 20.0% (336)

Experience: 2.26 Years (26)

Eff. Height: -1.1 (241)

Avg. Height: 75.6" (293)

Best Player(s):
Holmes: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, TORate, FD/40
Thompson: %Poss, OR%, DR%, Blk%

Second-Tier Player(s):
Kately: %Mins
Bolden: %Mins, ARate, Stl%
Barnes: %Mins, Stl%

North Carolina (ACC, 27-3, .9726 (2), Luck: 185):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Tempo, FG%, Def. FG%, TO%, Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, FT%, Def. Block%, Def. Steal%, A/FGM, Def. 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist., FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def FT%, Block%, 3PA/FGA, 3PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 28/15/20/111

Bench: 27.3% (257)

Experience: 2.03 Years (63)

Eff. Height: +1.9 (67)

Avg. Height: 77.2" (72)

Best Player(s):
Hansbrough: ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, TORate, FD/40, FTRate
Lawson: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, ARate, TORate, Stl%, FC/40, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Ellington: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, TORate, FC/40
Green: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, Blk%, Stl%
Thompson: DR%, TORate, Blk%
Davis: OR%, DR%, Blk%

North Dakota State (26-6, .8059 (69), Luck: 184):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Tempo, FG%, TO%, Def. Off. Reb.%, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, 3PT%, FT%, Block%, Def. 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, Def. 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def. TO%, Def. 3PT%, Def. FT%, Def. Block%, 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, Def. 3PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 178/247/203/128

Bench: 27.7% (245)

Experience: 2.30 Years (18)

Eff. Height: -0,5 (189)

Avg. Height: 76.9" (115)

Best Player(s):
Woodside: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, ARate, FC/40, FD/40, FTRate
Winkelman: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, DR%, TORate, Stl%, FC/40, FD/40

Second-Tier Player(s):
Nelson: %Mins, Ortg, eFG%, TS%, TORate, FC/40
Tveidt: Ortg, eFG%, TS%, TORate, Blk%
Moormann: Ortg, OR%, TORate, Blk%, Stl%

Northern Iowa (MVC, 23-10, .7713 (83), Luck: 29):

Strengths: Off. Eff., FG%, TO%, Def. Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. FTA/FGA, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, FT%, Block%, Steal%, 3PA/FGA, Def. 3PT Dist., FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Tempo, Def. TO%, Off. Reb.%, Def. 3PT%, Def. FT%, Def. Block%, Def. Steal%, 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, 2PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 90/127/102/104

Bench: 30.8% (180)

Experience: 1.45 Years (242)

Eff. Height: +1.5 Years (84)

Avg. Height: 76.3" (195)

Best Player(s):
Ahelegbe: %Mins, %Poss, ARate, FD/40, FTRate
Koch: ORtg, %Poss, eFG%, TS%, DR%, FD/40, FTRate
Eglseder: ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, OR%, DR%, TORate, Blk%

Second-Tier Player(s):
Moran: FC/40
Farokhmanesh: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, TORate
O'Rear: ORtg, OR%, DR%, Blk%
Dunham: ORtg, TORate

Ohio State (B10, 20-9, .8589 (48), Luck: 33):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., FG%, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, Block%, Def. Block%, Steal%, 3PA/FGA, Def. 3PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Tempo, Off. Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, Def. 3PT%, Def. 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, Def. 2PT Dist., FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 47/24.41/238

Bench: 26.6% (271)

Experience: 0.99 Years (328)

Eff. Height: +2.4 (41)

Avg. Height: 78.1" (20)

Best Player(s):
Turner: %Mins, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, DR%, ARate, Blk%, Stl%, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Buford: %Shots, TORate, FC/40
Mullens: OR%, DR%, Blk%
Diebler: %Mins, ORtg, eFG%, TS%, FC/40
Simmons: ARate

Oklahoma (B12, 27-5, .9343 (18), Luck: 118):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Tempo, FG%, Def. FG%, Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. FTA/FGA, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, Block%, Def. Block%, Def. A/FGM, Def. 3PT Dist., FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def. TO%, Def. 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 41/52/46/156

Bench: 20.7% (332)

Experience: 1.80 Years (128)

Eff. Height: +1.8 (69)

Avg. Height: 77.7"

Best Player(s):
B. Griffin: %Mins, PRtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Warren: %Mins, ORtg, eFG%, TS%, FD/40, FTRate
T. Griffin: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, Blk%, FTRate
Johnson: %Mins, ORtg, ARate, Blk%, FC/40

Oklahoma State (B12, 22-10, .8960 (30), Luck: 157)

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Tempo, FG%, TO%, Def. Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, 3PT%, 2PT%, FT%, Steal%, 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, 3PT Dist., FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def. FG%, Off. Reb.%, Def. FTA/FGA, Def. 3PT%, Def. 2PT%, Def. Block%, A/FGM, Def. 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

SOS: 34/41/40/145

Bench: 23.5% (315)

Experience: 1.78 Years (137)

Eff. Height: -2.5 (310)

Avg. Height: 75.7" (265)

Best Player(s):
Eaton: %Mins, %Poss, TS%, ARate, Stl%, FD/40, FTRate
Anderson: %Mins, ORtg, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, TORate, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Harris: %Mins, ORtg, eFG%, TS%, Stl%
Muonelo: %Mins, eFG%, DR%, TORate
Page: ORtg, eFG%, TS%

Penn State (B10, 22-10, .7917 (73), Luck: 37):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., FG%, TO%, Def. Off. Reb.%, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, Def. 3PT%, Steal%, 3PA/FGA. 3PT Dist., Def. 3PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Tempo, Def. TO%, Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. 2PT%, FT%, Def. FT%, Block%, Def. Block%, Def. Steal%, Def. 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, 2PT Dist., FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 122/39/78/331

Bench: 26.3% (281)

Experience: 1.78 Years (138)

Eff. Height: -0.5 (182)

Avg. Height: 76.0"

Best Player(s):
Battle: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, ARate, TORate, FC/40. FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Cornley: %Mins, eFG%, TORate, FC/40
Pringle: ORtg, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, ARate, TORate, Stl%
Jones: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, FTRate

Pittsburgh (BE, 28-4, .9644 (5), Luck: 195):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., FG%, Def. FG%, TO%, Off. Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, Def. FTA/FGA, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, Block%, Def. Block%, Steal%, A/FGM, 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: TO%, FTA/FGA, FT%, 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, 3PT Dist., FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 26/8/13/95

Bench: 29.6% (207)

Experience: 1.94 Years (86)

Eff. Height: -0.8 (211)

Avg. Height: 76.4" (169)

Best Player(s):
Young: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, Blk%, FC/40, FD/40
Blair: ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, TORate, Blk%, Stl%, FD/40

Second-Tier Player(s):
Fields: %Mins, ORtg, ARate, FC/40
Dixon: ORtg, eFG%, TORate, Blk%, Stl%
Wanamaker: DR%, ARate, Stl%
Biggs: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%

Portland State (BSky, 23-9, .6232 (117), Luck: 147):

Strengths: Off. Eff., FG%, Def. TO%, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, 2PT%, Block%, Def. Steal%, 3PA/FGA, Def. 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def. Eff., Def. FG%, FTA/FGA, Def. 2PT%, Def. FT%, Def. 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist., FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 220/236/216/141

Bench: 35.0% (77)

Experience: 2.07 Years (52)

Eff. Height: -0.5 (188)

Avg. Height: 75.2" (316)

Best Player(s):

Waters: ORtg, %Poss, ARate

Second Tier Player(s):

Dominguez: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, ARate, Stl%, FC/40
Nelson: ORtg, TORate, FC/40
Murray: eFG%, TS%, Stl%
Jones: ORtg, OR%, DR%, Blk%
Thomas: ORtg, OR%, DR%, Blk%, Stl%
Mara: ORtg

Purdue (B10, 25-9, .9408 (14), Luck: 245):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Def. FG%, TO%, Def. TO%, Def. FTA/FGA, Def. 3PT%, Def. 2PT%, Def. FT%, Def. Block%, Steal%, Def. Steal%, A/FGM

Weaknesses: Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 53/32/47/196

Bench: 30.7% (179)

Experience: 1.53 Years (218)

Eff. Height: +2.3 (41)

Avg. Height: 76.7" (126)

Best Player(s):

Moore: %Mins, %Poss, %Shots, Arate
Johnson: Ortg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, OR%, TORate, Blk%, FC/40. FD/40, FTRate

Second Tier Player(s):

Hummel: Ortg, eFG%, TS%, DR%, TORate
Jackson: Arate
Green: DR%, TORate, Blk%
Kramer: TS%, Stl%, FTRate

Radford (BSth, 21-11, .4810 (170), Luck: 34):

Strengths: Tempo, Def. FG%, Off. Reb%, Def. Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. FTA/FGA, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, Block%, Def. Block%, Def. 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist., FT Dist.

Weaknesses: TO%, Def. TO%, FT%, Def. FT%, Steal%, Def. Steal%, 3PA/FGA, Def. 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 258/272/271/92

Bench: 22.7% (320)

Experience: 2.24 years (27)

Eff. Height: +1.9 (65)

Avg. Height: 76.9: (107)

Best Player(s):

Parakhouski: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, EFG%, TS%, TORate, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate

Second Tier Player(s):

Thomas: %Mins, eFG%, TS%
Lynch-Flohr: eFG%, TS%, OR%, FD/40, FTRate
Johnson: %Mins, ARate, FC/40, FTRate
Hall: OR%, DR%, Blk%

Robert Morris (NEC, 24-10, .6109 (123), Luck: 42):

Strengths: Def. Eff., FG%, Def. TO%, 3PT%, 3PT%, Def. 2PT%, Def. FT%, Def. Steal%, A/FGM, Def. 3PT Dist.

Weaknesses: TO%, Def. FTA/FGA, Def. 3PT%, 3PA/FGA, Def. 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, Def. 2PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 276/304/301/200

Bench: 34.6% (89)

Experience: 2.03 Years (61)

Eff. Height: -1.9 (286)

Avg. Height: 75.8" (253)

Best Player(s):
Chappell: %Mins, ORtg, $Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, DR%, ARate, Stl%
Robinson: %Poss, %Shots, OR%, DR%, Blk%, FD/40

Second-Tier Player(s):
Nwigwe: ARate
Langhurst: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, FC/40
Francisco: eFG%, TS%, Stl%

Saint Mary's (WCC, 25-6, .8258 (58), Luck: 9):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Def. FG%, TO%, Off. Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA/, Def. FTA/FGA, Def. @PT Dist., Block%, Def. Block%, Steal%, Def. 3PT Dist., Def. A/FGM, Def. 2PT Dist., FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def. TO%, 3PT%, Def. 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 114/125/111/47

Bench: 33.7% (111)

Experience: 2.16 Years (36)

Eff. Height: +2.1 (50)

Avg. Height: 77.2" (68)

Best Player(s):
Mills: %Poss, %Shots, ARate, Stl%, FC/40

Second-Tier Player(s):
Simpson: %Mins, OR%, DR%, TORate, Blk%, Stl%, FC/40, FD/40, FTRate
Samhan: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, TORate, Blk%, FTRate
Hughes: ORtg, eFG%, ARate, Stl%

Siena (MAAC, 26-7, .8108 (66), Luck: 88):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Tempo, FG%, TO%, Def. TO%, Def. FTA/FGA, 2PT%, Def. Block%, Def. Steal%, 2PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def. Off. Reb.%, FT%, 3PA/FGM, A/FGM, Def. A/FGM, 3PT Dist., FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 174/95/133/32

Bench: 21.3% (329)

Experience: 1.76 Years (140)

Eff. Height: -2.2 (303)

Avg. Height: 76.4" (183)

Best Player(s):
Hansbrouck: %Mins, %Poss, %Shots, TORatem St%, FC/40

Second-Tier Player(s):
Ubiles: %Mins, eFG%, Blk%, FC/40
Franklin: %Mins, eFG5, TS%, OR%, DR%, FD/40, FTRate
Moore: %Mins, ARate, FC/40
Rossiter: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%. DR%, Blk%, FTRate

Southern Cal (P10, 21-12, .9017 (27), Luck: 233):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., FG%, Def. FG%, Off. Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. FTA/FGA, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, Block%, Def. Block%, Def. 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Tempo, TO%, Def. TO%, 3PT%, FT%, Def. FT%, 3PA/FGA, Def. 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 2/37/4/45

Bench: 21.7% (326)

Experience: 1.50 Years (226)

Eff. Height: +1.9 (66)

Avg. Height: 78.7" (4)

Best Player(s):

Hackett: %Mins, eFG%, TS%, ARate, FTRate

Gibson: %Mins, ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate

Second Tier Player(s):

Lewis: %Mins, %Shots, FC/40
DeRozan: %Mins, eFG%, OR%, FC/40, FTRate

Stephen F. Austin (SLand, 22-7, .7167 (94), Luck: 63):

Strengths: Def. Eff., FG%, TO%, Def. TO%, Def. Off. Reb.%, Def. 3PT%, Def. 2PT%, Steal%, Def. 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, 2PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Off. Eff., Tempo, FG%, Off Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, FT%, Def. FT%, Def. Steal%, A/FGM, Def. 3PT Dist., FT Dist.

SOS: 224/233/222/79

Bench: 30.5% (187)

Experience: 2.22 Years (31)

Eff. Height: +0.2 (153)

Avg. Height: 75.0" (329)

Best Player(s):
Kingsley: %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, DR%, TORate, Blk%, FD/40

Second-Tier Player(s):
Alexander: %Mins, %Shots, TORate
Williams: ARate, TORate, Stl%
Shaw: DR%

Syracuse (BE, 25-8, .9395 (15), Luck: 99):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Tempo, FG%, Def. FG%, Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. FTA/FGA, Def. 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. FT%, Def. Block%, A/FGM, Def. 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def. TO%, Def. Off. Reb.%, FT%, Block%, Steal%, Def. 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, 3PT Dist., FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 22/5/7/48

Bench: 24.1% (314)

Experience: 1.64 Years (178)

Eff. Height: +0.7 (122)

Avg. Height: 77.1" (81)

Best Player(s):
Flynn: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, TS%, ARate, FC/40, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Devendorf: eFG%, TS%
Harris: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, DR%, Blk%, FC/40, FD/40, FTRate
Onuaku: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, Blk%, FTRate
Rautins: eFG%, Stl%
Jackson: ORtg, OR%, DR%, Blk%

Temple (A10, 22-11, .8607 (47), Luck: 168):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., FG%, Def. FG%, TO%, Def. Off. Reb., Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, Def. 2PT%, Def. FT%, Block%, Def. Block%, 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. 3PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Tempo, Def. TO%, FTA/FGA, Steal%, Def. Steal%, Def. A/FGM, 2PT Dist., FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 50/72/58/18

Bench: 25.5% (292)

Experience: 1.94 Years (85)

Eff. Height: +2.0 (55)

Avg. Height: 78.1” (16)

Best Player(s):
Christmas: %Mins, %Poss, %Shots, FD/40

Second Tier Player(s):
Allen: Ortg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, TORate, Blk%
Inge: Arate, Stl%
Olmos: Blk%
Brooks: %Mins, Ortg, eFG%, TORate, FC/40

Tennessee (SEC, 19-11, .8796 (34), Luck: 196):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Tempo, FG%, TO%, Off. Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, 2PT%, Def. Block%, Steal%, A/FGM, Def. 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def. FG%, 3PT%, Def. 2PT%, FT%, Def. Steal%, Def. 3PA/FGA, 3PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist., FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 24/11/14/16

Bench: 34.2% (98)

Experience: 1.33 Years (274)

Eff. Height: +2.0 (59)

Avg. Height: 78.6" (6)

Best Player(s):
Smith: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, ARate, TORate, FC/40, FD/40, FTRate
Chism: %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Maze: ARate
Prince: ORtg, ARate, Blk%, Stl%
Hopson: FC/40
Williams: OR%, DR%, Blk%

Tennessee-Chattanooga (SC, 18-16, .3833 (213), Luck: 105):Strengths: Tempo, FG%, FTA/FGA, Def. FTA/FGA, 2PT%, Def. FT%, 3PA/FGA, 3PT Dist., Def. 3PT Dist., FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def. Eff., Def. FG%, TO%, Def. TO%, Def. 3PT%, Def. 2PT%, FT%, Block%, Def. Block%, Steal%, Def. Steal%, Def. 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, 2PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 206/274/238/31

Bench: 27.6% (247)

Experience: 2.23 Years (28)

Eff. Height: +0.8 (113)

Avg. Height: 76.5" (151)

Best Player(s):

Doaks: %Poss, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate

Goffney: ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, OR%, DR%, ARate, Stl%, FD/40

Second Tier Player(s):

McDowell: %Mins, ORtg, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, TORate, FC/40
Hartwell: eFG%, TS%m OR%, DR%, FD/40, FTRate
Sherard: ARate, Stl%, FTRate
Patterson: TORate

Texas (B12, 22-10, .9055 (25), Luck: 256):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Def. FG%, TO%, Off. Reb.%, Def. 2PT%, Def. FT%, Block%, Def. Block%, Steal%, Def. A/FGM, 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: FG%, 3PT%, FT%, Def. Steal%, 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

SOS: 10/47/25/78

Bench: 29.6% (208)

Experience: 1.88 Years (106)

Eff. Height: +2.3 (43)

Avg. Height: 76.2" (202)

Best Player(s):
James: %Poss, %Shots, OR%, DR%, TORate, Blk%, FD/40
Johnson: %Poss, DR%, TORate, Blk%, FD/40

Second-Tier Player(s):
Abrams: %Mins, ORtg, %Shots, TORate, FC/40
Mason: %Mins, ARate, FC/40, FTRate
Balbay: ARate, Stl%
Atchley: Blk%

Texas A&M (B12, 23-9, .8516, Luck: 103):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., TO%, Off. Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, Def. 2PT%, Steal%, Def. 3PA/FGA, Def. 2PT Dist., FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Tempo, Def. TO%, Def. 3PT%, Def. Steal%, 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 49/64/55/252

Bench: 31.0% (166)

Experience: 1.71 Years (153)

Eff. Height: +2.6 (34)

Avg. Height: 77.6" (37)

Best Player(s):
Sloan: %Mins, %Shots, ARate, TORate, FC/40, FD/40, FTRate
Davis: eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate
Elonu: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Carter: %Mins, ORtg, eFG%, TS%, TORate, FC/40
Roland: FC/40
Holmes: ORtg, TORate

UCLA (P10, 25-8, .9571 (9), Luck: 287):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., FG%, TO%, Def. TO%, Off. Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, 3PT%, 2PT%, FT%, Block%, Steal%, Def. Steal%, Def. 2PA/FGM, Def. A/FGM, 2PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def. FG%, FTA/FGA, Def. 3PT%, Def. FT%, 3PA/FGA, Def. 3PT Dist., FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 36/36/37/186

Bench: 30.6% (181)

Experience: 1.76 Years (144)

Eff. Height: +0.5 (136)

Avg. Height: 77.0" (89)

Best Player(s):

Collison: %Mins, Ortg, %Poss, eFG%, TS%, ARate, Stl%, FC/40
Shipp: ORtg, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, Stl%, FC/40

Second Tier Player(s):

Holiday: ARate, Stl%
Aboya: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, TORate, FTRate
Dragovic: ORtg, DR%, TORate, Blk%
Roll: ORtg, TORate

Utah (MWC, 22-9, .9040 (27), Luck: 162):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., FG%, Def. FG%, Def. Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, FT%, Block%, Def. Block%, 3PA/FGA, Def. 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, 3PT Dist., FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Tempo, Def. TO%, Off. Reb.%, Def. 3PT%, Def. FT%, Steal%, Def. Steal%, Def. 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist.

SOS: 21/55/32/19

Bench: 23.4% (316)

Experience: 2.38 Years (13)

Eff. Height: +4.9 (6)

Avg. Height: 78.1" (17)

Best Player(s):
Nevill: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, DR%, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Brown: ARate
Borha: %Mins, ORtg, eFG%, TS%
Kepkay: %Mins
Green: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, TORate, Blk%
Drca: ARate, Stl%

Utah State (WAC, 28-4, .8352 (57), Luck: 49):

Strengths: Off. Eff., FG%, TO%, Off. Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, FT%, Steal%, Def. 3PA/FGA, A/FGM

Weaknesses: Tempo, Def. TO%, Def. 3PT%, Def. FT%, Def. Block%, Def. Steal%, 3PA/FGA. Def. A/FGM, Def. 3PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 173/190/179/234

Bench: 26.0% (285)

Experience: 1.46 Years (235)

Eff. Height: -0.3 (179)

Avg. Height: 76.4" (184)

Best Player(s):
Wilkinson: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, DR%, TORate, FC/40, FD/40, FTRate
Quayle: ORtg, %Poss, eFG%, TS%, DR%, ARate, Stl%, FC/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Wesley: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, Blk%, Stl%, FD/40, FTRate
Williams: ORtg
Newbold: %Mins, ORtg, eFG%, TS%, TORate, FC/40

VCU (CAA, 24-9, .8367 (55), Luck: 307):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., FG%, Def. FG%, TO%, 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, Block%, Def. Block%, Steal%, Def. Steal%, Def. FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Off. Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, Def. FTA/FGA, Def. FT%, Def. 2PT Dist., FT Dist.

SOS: 179/164/164/88

Bench: 28.3% (232)

Experience: 1.32 Years (278)

Eff. Height: -1.2 (250)

Avg. Height: 75.6" (284)

Best Player(s):
Maynor: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, ARate, TORate, Stl5, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Sanders: %Poss, OR%, DR%, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate
Rodriguez: %Mins, eFG%, TS%, Stl%
Rozzell: TORate, Stl%
Burgess: ORtg, eFG%, TS%
Pishchalnikov: OR%, DR%, Blk%

Villanova (BE, 26-6, .9340 (20), Luck: 124):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Tempo, FG%, Def. FG%, TO%, Def. TO%, Off. Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, FT%, Steal%, Def. Steal%, A/FGM, Def. 3PT Dist., FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Def. FTA/FGa, 3PA/FGA, Def. 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

SOS: 25/62/47/257

Bench: 29.2% (218)

Experience: 2.02 Years (67)

Eff. Height: 0.0 (170)

Avg. Height: 77.1" (80)

Best Player(s):
Cunningham: %Mins, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, TORate, Blk%, FD/40
Reynolds: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, TS%, ARate, Stl%, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Fisher: TS%, ARate, Stl%, FD/40, FTRate
Redding
Stokes: ORtg, TORate
Anderson: ORtg, OR%, Stl%
Pena: OR%, DR%, Blk%
Clark: ORtg, OR%

Wake Forest (ACC, 24-5, .9370 (17), Luck: 31):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Tempo, FG%, Def. FG%, Off. Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. FTA/FGA, Def. 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, FT%, Def. Block%, Def. Steal%, Def. A/FGM, 2PT Dist., FT Dist.

Weaknesses: TO%, 3PT%, Def. FT%, Steal%, 3PA/FGA, Def. 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

SOS: 39/67/50/285

Bench: 29.5% (210)

Experience: 1.30 Years (281)

Eff. Height: +6.0 (1)

Avg. Height: 78.3" (11)

Best Player(s):
Teague: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, ARate, Stl%, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Johnson: %Mins, ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, Blk%, Stl%
Aminu: eFG%, TS%, OR%, DR%, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate
McFarland: OR%, DR%, Blk%, FD/40
Smith: ARate, FC/40

Washington (P10, 25-7, .9432 (14), Luck: 133):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Tempo, Def. FG%, Off Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. FTA/FGA, Def. 3PT%, Def. 2PT%, Def. FT%, Block%, Def. 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, 2PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist., FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Block%, 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. 3PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 4/43/16/120

Bench: 31.4% (157)

Experience: 1.44 Years (243)

Eff. Height: -0.7 (210)

Avg. Height: 75.3" (314)

Best Player(s):
Thomas: %Poss, %Shots, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Brockman: ORtg, eFG%, OR%, DR%, TORate, FD/40, FTRate
Dentmon: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, Stl%, FC/40, FD/40, FTRate
Pondexter: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%
Overton: Stl%

Weber State (BSKY, 23-9, .6249 (109), Luck: 19):

Strengths: Def. Eff., Tempo, FG%, Def. Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, 3PT%, 2PT%, FT%, Def. Block%, Steal%, 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, 3PT Dist.

Weaknesses: TO%, Off. Reb.%, Def. FTA/FGA, Def. FT%, Block%, Def. Steal%, Def. 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, 2PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

SOS: 159/258/201/90

Bench: 27.7% (241)

Experience: 1.48 Years (232)

Eff. Height: -0.2 (175)

Avg. Height: 75.6" (294)

Best Player(s):
McCoy: %Mins, ORtg, %Poss, eFG%, TS%, ARate, FD/40, FTRate
Panos: %Poss, %Shots, OR%, DR%, FD/40

Second-Tier Player(s):
Lillard: eFG%, TS%, ARate
Davis: %Poss, eFG%, TS%, ARate, Blk%, Stl%, FD/40, FTRate
Bullinger: eFG%, TS%, DR%
Hansen: eFG%, TS%, FC/40
Morris: DR%, Blk%

West Virginia (BE, 23-10, .9593 (9), Luck: 288):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., Def. FG%, TO%, Def. TO%m Off. Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, Def. 3PT%, Def. Block%, Def. 3PA/FGA, A/FGM, Def. A/FGM, Def. 2PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

Weaknesses: Tempo, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, Def. 3PT Dist.

SOS: 7/16/8/59

Bench: 26.2% (283)

Experience: 1.27 Years (289)

Eff. Height: +1.1 (102)

Avg. Height: 78.5" (8)

Best Player(s):
Butler: %Mins, %Poss, %Shots, TORate, FD/40

Second-Tier Player(s):
Ruoff: %Mins, ORtg, eFG%, TS%, Stl%
Ebanks: OR%, DR%, Blk%, FC/40, FTRate
Bryant: ARate
Smith: OR%, Blk%
Jones: ORtg, OR%, DR%, TORate, Blk%
Flowers: OR%, Blk%

Western Kentucky (SB, 24-8, .6884 (100), Luck: 8):

Strengths: Off. Eff., FG%, Off. Reb.%, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, Block%, 3PA/FGA, 3PT Dist.

Weaknesses: FTA/FGA, Def. 3PT%, Def. Steal%, A/FGM, 2PT Dist., FT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 218/195/200/73

Bench: 25.3% (295)

Experience: 1.79 Years (134)

Eff. Height: -0.9 (226)

Avg. Height: 76.5" (162)

Best Player(s):
Kerusch: %Poss, %Shots, OR%, DR%, TORate, FD/40

Second-Tier Player(s):
Mendez-Valdez: %Mins, ORtg, eFG%, TS%, ARate
Slaughter: %Mins, ORtg, %Shots, ARate, TORate, FC/40
Pettigrew: %Shots, TORate
Sally: ARate
Evans: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, TORate, Blk%

Wisconsin (B10, 19-11, .9016 (28), Luck: 291):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., TO%, Def. Off. Reb.%, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, Def. 3PT%, FT%, Block%, Steal%, Def. 3PA/FGA, Def. A/FGM, 3PT Dist., Def. 2PT Dist.

Weaknesses: Tempo, Def. TO%, FTA/FGA, Def. 2PT%, Def. FT%, Def. Block%, Def. Steal%, Def. 3PT Dist., 2PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 46/7/27/99

Bench: 26.2% (282)

Experience: 1.90 Years (95)

Eff. Height: +0.7 (126)

Avg. Height: 76.9" (104)

Best Player(s):
Leuer: %Poss, %Shots, OR%, DR%, TORate, Blk%

Second-Tier Player(s):
Hughes: %Mins, ARate, TORate, Stl%, FTRate
Landry: %Mins, ORtg, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, TORate, Blk%
Bohannon: %Mins, ORtg, TS%, TORate, FC/40
Krabbenhoft: %Mins, ORtg, eFG%, TS%, DR%, FTRate

Xavier (A10, 25-6, .9177 (24), Luck: 111):

Strengths: Off. Eff., Def. Eff., FG%, Def. FG%, Off. Reb.%, Def. Off. Reb.%, FTA/FGA, Def. FTA/FGA, 3PT%, 2PT%, Def. 2PT%, Def. FT%, Def. Block%, Def. 3PA/FGA, FT Dist.

Weaknesses: TO%, Def. TO%, FT%, Block%, Steal%, Def. Steal%, Def. A/FGM, 2PT Dist., Def. FT Dist.

SOS: 89/57/71/18

Bench: 31.3% (159)

Experience: 1.60 Years (190)

Eff. Height: +3.0 (20)

Avg. Height: 78.0" (22)

Best Player(s):
Anderson: %Poss, OR%, FD/40, FTRate

Second-Tier Player(s):
Brown: ORtg, eFG%, TS%, OR%, Blk%, FD/40, FTRate
Raymond: ORtg, %Shots, eFG%, TS%, TORate
Jackson
Love: ORtg, OR%, DR%, Blk%

Well, there you have it. Again, once the tournament pairings are announced on Sunday, I will be breaking down every matchup and at least attempting to walk through the entire tournament. While it's entirely possible that I don't go 63-0, after each round, I will try to get my latest predictions up. If you guys have any questions about anything you see, please don't hesitate to ask, because that's what I'm here for. I know this was probably something that didn't have to be done, but at the same time, I feel that there is just a flood of information out there, and it's really tough to get down to what's relevant and what isn't. In my opinion, the stuff I got from Ken Pomeroy is vital when you're attempting to break down teams that you may have not seen before. It's tough to watch every team because this is not my sole occupation and I simply don't have the time to sit down and watch every game. I prefer to break things down analytically. You may prefer something different, but even if you do, you have this column to fall back on if you need help. So, I hope everyone has a great Championship Week. Peace.

~Mell-o

So Guess What Everyone Is Still Talking About?

2009-03-03T17:38:00.000-05:00

"Put your hands on the wheel
Let the golden age begin."

So days after the fact, people still can't get by the Matt Cassel trade, and I guess it is justifiable when you consider the return, the fact that Cassel is a comparable starting QB, and Mike Vrabel's impact on the Pats throughout the years. However, what people have to understand is that they, themselves, maybe do not understand everything that goes into these negotiations. The market was shallow, the Denver-Tampa Bay three-way didn't come in until after the KC deal was done...I think we really need to move on. If anything, the thing I take away from this is that if Tampa and Denver had to wait until a proposed deal was announced to conjure up on of their own, they don't really have any balls. I mean how else am I supposed to look at this? A Pats-KC trade is rumored as being done, and all of a sudden, Tampa and Denver suddenly enter into the equation with a better deal? This is also the sign of two teams with two new regimes taking over, and at least to me, it's obvious that their heads were in different places. Denver was too busy signing free agents. Tampa was too busy cutting their entire roster. If they really had any "real" discussions about Cassel, then I would think they would have been brought up when the Pats were shopping him to every team that would listen, and not wait until a deal was done to lay down their deal. In the end, the Pats may have been impatient, but their impatience is also justifiable because from all that I hear, the Chiefs were the only legitimate suitors. So, did we guess less in return than we should have? Probably, but the fact remains that the Pats have $18 million and another second-round pick. I know we were ready for a landslide of bounty to come our way, but the market dictated that it would not, and that's the end of it.

Jason Taylor was released by Washington yesterday apparently over an off-season workout clause in Taylor's contract which he was not willing to uphold. The obvious question now is what this could potentially mean for the Pats in an attempt to fill Vrabel's spot at OLB. Despite spending most of his career at defensive end, Taylor has the speed to move to the outside and become a speed-rusher. I know many in this area have been clamoring for Julius Peppers, which in a perfect, non-money related world I would love, but in the real world just doesn't make sense for the Pats right now. In Taylor, you have a player who is similar to Peppers in ability, albeit older (Taylor will be 35 at the start of the '09 season, Peppers is 28), but the financial commitment will be nowhere close to what Peppers will command (consider this: in cutting Taylor, the 'Skins will save $6.5 million next year; Carolina franchised Peppers for $16.5 million...again, kind of a financial disparity). So, basically what I'm saying is this: The Pats obviously would love to have Peppers, but they do not have the kind of cap structure to pull the trigger on that deal. With Taylor, you are looking at around a $4-5 million commitment for two years. All things considered, that's not a bad asking price. He fills a need, he's an upgrade from Vrabel and yet would be making about the same amount Vrabel would be...it makes sense. Sure, the Pats could gamble and wait for the draft, but Taylor, to me, has sky-rocketed to #1 on the OLB list, and if the Pats want him (and judging from the fact that they have tried trading for him for about five years, I would say they would), they are going to have to act swiftly (Tampa has already been rumoured to be concocting a deal).

The Pats re-signed James "The Colonel" Sanders to a three year, $9 million deal. However, I officially want it to be known that "we can do better" (the last part in quotes because I'm sitting at my computer talking out loud in my Kennedy voice). I like Sanders, but right now, they need someone who can at least push Sanders in terms of competing for the starting spot. I will continue to beat this into the ground, but Darren Sharper is the answer to the safety spot. Sharper will be going into his twelfth year, and yes, I realize that's a lot of years, but I believe we just said goodbye to a safety who was fifteenth year (Rodney) and one of the better safeties in the league just got a five-year deal in his thirteenth season (Brian Dawkins), so I can't really believe that just because a man is experienced doesn't mean he still can't play at a high level. Sharper is still at a Pro Bowl level. He has a nose for the ball, he has all the tools, and while I'm almost positive the Pats will not go after him based on the Sanders' signing, he is the guy. He would be perfect in this system playing next to Meriwether, who is definitely of the strong safety persuasion, but again, it's probably not going to happen. Still, I think you have to throw out the possibility, especially because of how weak the production was at that position last year.

The B's are on tonight against the Flyers. It pains me to do this, but I have to look back to the last game against the Caps and scratch my head. First of all, the B's just do not have the ability to close games out. Granted, they were not in the lead for a single, solitary second against Washington, but still, they tie the game up at three, send it to OT, and they couldn't really get anything going, which led to Semin's absurd goal from beyond the blue line. Second, the B's have got to get more consistent goaltending from the Thomas/Fernandez tandem. They allow four to the lowly Lightning, then get red-hot against the Panthers and Ducks, only to see it fall off again vs. the Caps. If the Bruins have any Cup aspirations, they are going to need these two to really come through for them. Of course in addition to the goaltending, the defense needs to improve. I've heard some rumblings about Chris Pronger, and while it would be an exciting possibility to have Chara and Pronger on the ice at the same time, the B's need to be wary as to what they are willing to give up. From the reports I've heard, a deal for Pronger will most likely have to involve Phil Kessel...okay, immediate red flag there. Any deal involving Kessel that does not include the name "Ovechkin" you simply cannot do (although I don't even think anyone here would like an Ovechkin-for-Kessel trade because everyone up here hates that guy). Kessel is young, he's a brilliant goal scorer, he's not even close to hitting his prime, he's signed for cheap money, he's one of the faces of the franchise...need I say more? If the B's are looking to improve on their blue line, and they absolutely should, they can't give up the cornerstones of the franchise. If you don't know what I mean by "cornerstone," here's an easy test. Take your favorite team, then go down the roster of players, and ask after each one "what if they traded this guy." If your face starts to look like you just ate a hot pepper, and you make any time of audible sound, that guy is a cornerstone. For example, Chuck Kobasew: (silence) Milan Lucic: "geeeessshhhh!" with the hot pepper face. I like Kobasew, and I think he's played so well in his time with the B's, but this team is poised to make a run for their first Cup in over 35 years, and right now, you have to do whatever is in reason to reach that ultimate goal. There has to be a list of "untouchables" though, because after all, it was those "untouchables" that played a huge role in getting you there in the first place. So, I like the idea that the B's will be buyers before the deadline (2:00 tomorrow) for the first time in quite a while.

Sources from ESPN Deportes, my favorite Spanish-speaking sports news outlet (and the one I have heard of) is reporting that Manny is about to sign a one year, $25 million contract with a player option worth $20 million in 2010. The reason this is of any note is that this has to be one of the most drawn-out contracts in the history of negotiations. Basically, the terms of this deal have been known for almost three months. We have known about the 25 mil, we've known about the player option, and yet there was a stalemate. So, in case you were curious, here, apparently, it is: Boras and the Dodgers, specifically GM Ned Colletti, were in a deadlock over the amount of deferred money. The deferred money aspect was an especially prudent issue considering how Manny's last deal with the Sox was laid out. The contract he received back in 2000 called for a fairly good amount of the back-end of the deal to be deferred (from what I have gathered, $4 million from each year of Manny's deal from 2002-2008 will get paid in installments of $1.875 million each year from 2011-2026...so the last of his deal that he signed in 2000 will not be seen until 18 years after his last season). Also, think about how Ramirez ended up in Boston in the first place. Ramirez had $28 million of the 160 total deferred with Boston. While Cleveland offered a similar deal, their package included a substantially longer payout system, and that's how many became a Red Sox. So, this was not the first time that the payout schedule became a breaking point for Manny. While the deal is not official yet, and Manny still hasn't signed on the dotted line, it really makes you wonder about how greedy one man and one agent could actually be. Sure, there is an amount that will get deferred anyway, but from the early reports, the difference in Boras' and the Dodgers' figures was $5 million. Really? 11%? This is just a really poor message to be sending in these times. Everyone hates Boras because he's a ruthless, greedy individual, and I know that he's doing his job in terms of getting the most money in the shortest period of time, but are there not limits? Boras was going to hold Manny out of this season potentially over $5 million? The whole thing was just a giant waste of time. We knew where he was going, we knew what the deal was, why the hell couldn't they just get it done? The more it was in the press, the worse everyone looked...it just wasn't done very well, and this is not and likely will not be the last time we hear about Scott Boras churning out negative press about his clients, and furthermore alienating them from ball clubs (just ask your Boston Red Sox).

Random List: The Top 10 Shows That Have Come Out In The Last Ten Years:

The Sopranos (1999)
Family Guy (1999)
The Office (2005)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (2000)
Scrubs (2001)
Mad Men (2007)
House (2004)
Weeds (2005)
The Wire (2002)
It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia (2005)

Honorable Mentions: The Shield (2002), Rescue Me (2004), Heroes (because I feel like if I didn't mention it, people would slit my throat) (2007), Lost (same reason) (2004), 24 (2001), Arrested Development (2003)...and a side note, South Park did not come out until '97

Okay, one more...

The Top 10 Non-Bob Marley Reggae Songs:

Honorable Mentions: Natty Rebel- U-Roy, Marcus Garvey- Burning Spear, Many Rivers To Cross- Jimmy Cliff, Pressure Drop- Toots and The Maytals, A Love I Can Feel- John Holt

Okay, so I hope this was helpful, and if anything, you got some tunes you should definitely check out. I actually have to go to work tomorrow, so I will be seeing everyone very soon. Cheers. Peace.

~Mell-o