2010 NFL Mock Draft 3.0

"And you've got ventriloquists."

A move as big as Donovan McNabb to the Redskins garners an updated mock draft (seriously...in the division Philly?...really?). Also, we've experienced some movers and shakers in the past couple of weeks, meaning there has been some movement up and down the board. Here is a full two-round mock draft:

1. St. Louis- Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma: I kind of just wish they would do the contract now and get it over with. They are locked into Bradford whether they like it or not (apparently they like it though). This is kind of looking similar to the '07 Draft, where Oakland, despite needing everything, were basically locked into JaMarcus Russell at the top. The Rams no longer have a choice, and they pretty much did it to themselves here.
2. Detroit- Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska: One quick note: I successfully mastered the spelling of Suh's first name, thus crossing off a major goal of April I had (April Goals: Suh's first name, getting work off for the Draft, and walking over the Longfellow and Harvard bridges in one trip...3 for 3 (the bridges connect Cambridge to Boston...the Harvard Bridge is how you get to...MIT? I know, weird)). Okung probably should be the guy here, but the Lions actually have some pieces in place with their line, while on the defensive side, they have nothing.
   
3. Tampa Bay- Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma: I think the most bold move any prognosticator could make right now is having someone other than McCoy here. He may be edging Suh for the #1 player this year.
4. Washington- Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State: Again, this will be the tipping point of the draft potentially. If Okung drops to them at #4, the 'Skins will have completed one of the most drastic turnarounds in recent memory. With McNabb and the three-headed, slightly over the hill, running back monster, Okung provides them Chris Samuels 2.0, which they desperately need. If Okung is not here, they either reach for Bulaga, or trade down and hope they get Bulaga later on or Trent Williams.
5. Kansas City- Eric Berry, S, Tennessee: What kind of baffles me is the talk that giving Berry, a safety, top 5 money may not be financially responsible. So despite everyone...literally everyone saying that Berry will be "Ed Reed-like," he wouldn't be worth the money? If Berry isn't worth the money, then no one is worth the money (actually they probably aren't worth the money they will get, but you can blame the NFL for that).
6. Seattle- Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma: Williams has been riding a steady momentum train, and the hope for him is that he can somehow keep it up for another two weeks. You never know though. Something may get out about him, and it's all over. I'm not saying that will happen, but sometimes, peaking too early can be detrimental.
7. Cleveland- Joe Haden, CB, Florida: You will be able to find about seven to eight different guys who are going here to the Browns, which means that they, along with Washington, are the two teams most likely to trade out of the top 10. I really feel like, in this scenario, Cleveland will have offers coming in from teams like Buffalo and San Francisco looking to move up for Bulaga. The Browns need so much that if they trade down, remain in the top 15, and pick up some additional picks, that would be the best scenario for them. Otherwise, they take the best corner in the draft...not bad.
8. Oakland- Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida: I remain true here because if I peg Al Davis' pick, the rest is completely in-circumstantial. Pierre-Paul, when looking at what he did at the combine, is probably at the top of the "athletically gifted" list (Pierre-Paul, Bruce Campbell, Derrick Morgan, Taylor Mays), and that's just the way it goes in Oakland.
9. Buffalo- Brian Bulaga, OT, Iowa: If Bulaga and Williams go in the top 8, then I have Clausen going here. However, I can't see them standing pat and let the three best offensive tackles all go off the board without making serious overtones about moving into the top 7 at least to grab one of the two. QB is a need of sorts considering the dependability they have with their current QB crop (they have none), but the need for "the franchise tackle" is #1.
10. Jacksonville- Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama: I keep coming back to my Mike Peterson reference about the Jags' defense, but it's so true. They need someone they can rely on calling the plays in the middle. McClain is probably the #1 "guy who can be a rookie, yet become a team leader quickly" prospect. Also, call me crazy, but when a middle linebacker projects in the top 10, doesn't that usually work out? (Last five middle linebackers selected in the top 10 or a pick or two after: Jerod Mayo, Patrick Willis (#11), A.J. Hawk, Ernie Sims, Jonathan Vilma (#12)...yeah that works out).
11. Denver- Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech: I looked over a few options here (even Jimmy Clausen...are you really sold on Kyle Orton starting for this team for the next decade?), but Morgan has to be the most intriguing of those options here. You have him and Dumervil coming off the edges, and good night. Kiper threw out Earl Thomas here...that actually has some merit as well.
12. Miami- Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee: So 10-12 I'm status quo on.Williams is the best pure nose tackle in the draft, and while I believe Suh and McCoy when they say they can play five-technique and be the NT in a 3-4 scheme, I think Williams projects as that Vince Wilfork-type, the prototypical guy in the middle of a three down-lineman set.
13. San Francisco- Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State: The Niners could wait on Wilson until they pick again at #17, but here's the thing: With Tennessee looming at #16, they are going to take the best available non-running back, which would likely be Wilson. San Fran has a pressing need at corner, and if Joe Haden does fall here, it will be a no-brainer, but with Haden gone, I think Wilson garners a top 15 pick simply because he can do it all. He may even have better cover skills than Haden.
14. Seattle- Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame: This pick reminds me of the '07 Draft when Miami was on the clock and Brady Quinn was still out there. The Dolphins literally had no QB (although they got Trent Green shortly there afterward), and Quinn, who some people had going as high as #3 that year to Cleveland, was still there. The Dolphins pulled a shocker and went with Ted Ginn, which led to a Quinn free-fall almost out of the first round (was picked at #20 by, yes, Cleveland). If the Seahawks don't take Clausen here, he may not hear his name called until the end of the first round. All things considered, I think Clausen is more "pro-ready" right now than Quinn was, and Pete Carroll is obviously familiar with Clausen's capabilities having played against him at Southern Cal (side note: the last time a Pete Carroll-led team has two first round picks, it was his last year in the NFL with the Pats in '99; they took Damien Woody and, yes, the immortal Andy Katzenmoyer).
15. New York Giants- Earl Thomas, S, Texas: The consensus is this: The Giants want Rolando McClain bad, and may consider moving to get him if they don't think he falls to them at #15. If they don't, and he's gone, Thomas is the best defensive player available by far in this scenario. The Giants need inside linebacking help, but they are also in desperate need of safety help, particularly a free safety.
16. Tennessee- Everson Griffen, DE, Southern Cal: This was tough because the three guys I think the Titans would really like to have (Pierre-Paul, Morgan, Wilson) are all gone. Griffen is on the rise. He was impressive at the combine, and did nothing to damper that at his pro day...actually, it was his pro day that elevated him from 1st/2nd rounder to surefire top 20 status.
17. San Francisco- C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson: Again, depending on how the draft funnels out, the Niners may flip-flop and take Spiller at #13 to avoid a possible Spiller to Seattle situation at #14. So, it will be interesting to see how long they wait to pull the trigger on Spiller, who would be an obvious upgrade to their offense, and would also take some of the load off of Frank Gore, who has to be kind of wearing down considering he has literally and figuratively carried that offense for the last four or five years.
18. Pittsburgh- Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho: The sentiments are that Maurkice Pouncey is now the #1 interior offensive lineman, but I'm totally convinced that if Iupati falls to the Steelers at #18, it won't matter what anyone says because this guy is absolutely perfect in Pittsburgh...he's got the Steeler mentality in that he plays physical and with a mean streak.
19. Atlanta- Brandon Graham, OLB, Michigan: As tempting as a Roddy White/Dez Bryant combo might be, the Falcons do need someone else besides John Abraham who can rush the passer (T-26 in sacks). Graham has become the best "pure" outside linebacker in the draft. This has been an interesting progression for me. At first, I was dead set against the Pats taking him, but if Graham does fall to #22, I will have absolutely no problem if they scoop him up. However, I think the Falcons jump the gun on them.
20. Houston- Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State: The Texans would love to see either C.J. Spiller or Kyle Wilson fall to them here. Again though, I'm feeling both are going to be gone in the top 15, so unless the Texans plan on moving up the board, they are going to have to go corner here as a "need" pick and not so much "value." It's a race for #3, with Robinson in front, Devin McCourty in second, and Kareem Jackson gaining momentum in a close third. Take this into consideration as well: As long as they're reaching for a corner, they may reach for a runner as well and take Ryan Matthews here.
    
21. Cincinnati- Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma: The feeling here is that Gresham was the pick all along, but Taylor Mays' name is continuing to come up in discussions going here at #21. I think Mays is a beast, but the Bengals need offense quick. Their defense isn't the greatest, but in thinking about Cincy, they are a team that is driven by the offense (which is weird with Marvin Lewis in charge and what not), so upgrading that unit probably has a little more prevalence than taking someone to sure up the defensive backfield. This one I'm not completely sold on though.
22. New England- Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State: As if a bolt of lightning hit me, I have to say that right now, this would be the smartest pick the Pats could make. Think about this: It's clear that the #1 need for New England is a pass rusher off the edge. However, there are bountiful amounts of prospects that fit that mold. As I'm sitting here looking at receivers, I see three guys having major impacts (Bryant, DeMaryius Thomas, Golden Tate) and a few more who are on the second tier (Eric Decker, Jordan Shipley, Arrelious Benn). In some evaluations, Bryant is listed as a top five prospect, so if he were to fall this far because of an overblown meeting with Deion Sanders, and with Randy Moss more than likely to be done in New England after this year, Bryant makes way too much sense.
23. Green Bay- Charles Brown, OT, Southern Cal: It's looking better and better if you're a team at the end of the first round and you are looking for offensive line prospects. The next three coming off the board I all had going somewhere in the top 15 in my previous mock drafts. Lots of enticing names here, but Brown seems to be the most stable pick in terms of a lineman.
24. Philadelphia- Maurkice Pouncey, OG, Florida: Corner is the obvious choice here, but with Haden and Wilson gone, I feel like the next few corners should be high-to-mid second rounders. The Eagles pick again at #37, so they can wait to snag either McCourty or Jackson. Pouncey would be the best available player at this point. Again, some have him higher than Iupati, so if he somehow gets down here to #24, I have to think the Eagles would give him serious consideration (note: Pouncey is becoming one of those "hey, we should probably move up before teams X & Y and take him", so don't be surprised if he ends up going in the 15-20 range)
    
25. Baltimore- Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech: Offense seems to be the consensus choice for the Ravens, and it looks to be either Jermaine Gresham or a receiver. With Gresham off the board, it now comes down to who Baltimore likes better, Thomas or Golden Tate. I give Thomas the slight edge based on how big he is (6'3 compared to Tate at 5'10) and the raw upside he brings to the table. Tate is much more polished, but Thomas has been talked about in the same breath as Dez Bryant in terms of being a top 15 talent, while Tate has continually been talked about as a late first, early second (quick side note: Baltimore is +1700 to win the Super Bowl next year, basically meaning if you bet $10 and they win, you get $170 back...I'm just throwing that out there).
    
26. Arizona- Sean Weatherspoon, ILB, Missouri: Wow, the Cardinals need everything. This team could really tank this year if the NFC West gets even slightly better (to me, the Niners are almost a lock to win that division). They lose Dansby to Miami...that wasn't too bright. So now, they need something in the middle, and while I had the Cards' going OLB here, I think Weatherspoon is of the Rolando McClain type who can step in from day one, start getting support and praise from his teammates immediately, and have a nice impact wherever he ends up.
27. Dallas- Taylor Mays, S, Southern Cal: I think they really want Pouncey to fall this far, but if Dallas stays put here, and Mays is still available, it's a total win-win. First, the Cowboys get a guy to replace Ken Hamlin, and Mays may pan out better than Hamlin. Mays ends up on a team that is favored to win the NFC next year and could make a run for the Super Bowl, plus he will play on the biggest stage in the NFL after just playing on the biggest stage in college (Southern Cal could be in line for a whopping tail-spin with Lane Kiffin as their coach...even Trojan fans have to feel icky after Kiffin's about-face on Tennessee to return to SoCal).
28. San Diego- Ryan Matthews, RB, San Diego State: This will come down to two guys: Matthews and Terrance Cody. They need both positions badly, but I feel like Matthews is the pick here considering a.) there's no way he comes around to them at #40, and if you're drafting a running back this year, the immediate dividends are going to come from Spiller and Matthews, and b.) while the need for a run-stuffer like Cody is high, big DTs will be there at #40 if Cody isn't. The Chargers are absolutely desperate for a runner who can handle the majority of the carries, because while I love Darren Sproles, he would get killed if he attempted 300 carries in a season. To better utilize Sproles, Matthews would take on a bulk of the workload so Sproles can continue to flourish as the change-of-pace back and someone who can receive out of the backfield.
29. New York Jets- Jared Odrick, DE, Penn State: This is a two-prong pick because we are still waiting on whether Jason Taylor will end up in Jersey. If Taylor does come on board, the need will shift from a pass rush to run support, enter Odrick, who can play both DT and DE (although he likely projects better as a 4-3 DT and not a NT in a 3-4). If the Jets do not sign Taylor, I feel like it will be between Odrick, Sergio Kindle, and Jerry Hughes.
30. Minnesota- Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers: While I believe that Brian Price would be a great fit in Minnesota, the fact remains that taking him would basically be a luxury..."insurance" if you will. McCourty would be a starter from his first game as a rookie, so you have to wonder how much the present value of a player will offset the future value (speaking of future, people still have Tebow going here).
31. Indianapolis- Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas: I will be amazed if Kindle gets this far, but he's an example of a guy who is already in the clubhouse with absolutely nothing to prove, but what happens is that those established players, the "rocks," get swept under the rug due to someone else's amazing pro day or Combine workouts. While Kindle may not become a Hall of Famer, he will definitely make an immediate impact, and, again, he has not wavered any in terms of his ability, meaning that you can rely on him still going strong five years from now.
32. New Orleans- Jerry Hughes, OLB, TCU: Again, it can't get much better than this for the Saints. Win a Super Bowl, then get a top 20 guy at the end of the first round...life is good.

Second Round

33. St. Louis- Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers: What's fantastic about really, really bad teams going through the draft process is that they really can't lose. They probably need everything, so just keep drafting the best available player, and if they don't work out, that's okay, because at the time, everyone thought they would. You have a guy here in Davis who I had slotted in the top 5 about a month ago based on his total freakish upside. Now, those good old "character issues" have taken a massive hit to Davis' draft stock. The Rams get a guy who could be an Orlando Pace kind of tackle, or he busts, they stink, and they do it all over again.

34. Detroit- Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida: Dunlap's "questionable motor" sees him fall out of the first round and right to Detroit, who is in need of an impact pass rusher.

35. Tampa Bay- Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame: Basically, I can see the top five to six picks in this round all being made by teams trying to trade up. Still though, I hope at least these three (STL, DET, TB) stay here at the top because they all need some kind of spark.

36. Kansas City- Rob Gronkowski, TE, Arizona: KC's offense looked dreadful last year outside of Jamaal Charles, but with Charles and now Thomas Jones in the backfield, look for the Chiefs to start thinking about pass options for Matt Cassel. Also, while Gronkowski likely won't be the next Tony Gonzalez, you can at least tell the fans "hey, we're trying."

37. Philadelphia- Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama: I believe Philly will be able to make the gamble pay off, but the only question will be who of the last five top corners will be here. Jackson could potentially sneak into the first, leaving McCourty dangling...that might be even more scary than if Jackson slipped into the second. For some reason, I can see someone moving up to get McCourty, but Jackson I can see getting through those first four picks.

38. Cleveland- Terrance Cody, DT, Alabama: Everyone seems to be thinking the Browns go QB...I don't know why they would start to spend high draft picks on a QB when a.) it hasn't worked in the recent past, and b.) I feel like Jake Delhomme may actually work out in Cleveland. He's a passionate guy, they're a passionate fan base...he has two or three really good games, which he's absolutely capable of given of how sneaky this Browns offense will start off being, he might be okay. You have Cribbs, Massaquoi, Robiskie, and a scary underrated Chansi Stuckey, coupled with James Harrison, who could emerge as a top 5-10 RB in the league this year. Cody can easily slide in place of Shaun Rogers, who seems like while he has technically been playing, his career was over like three years ago.

39. Oakland- Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland: Do you believe Raider Nation? Al Davis could potentially pass on Campbell at #8, and yet may wind up taking him 30 picks later in the second round. This would be monumental. Oakland brings back two major athletes who seem to be pointing more towards "boom" than "bust."

40. San Diego- Brian Price, DT, UCLA: Again, not Cody, but Price actually fits more of the Jamal Williams mold; the athletic defensive tackle. It seemed like Williams, when healthy, was thriving in that defense, so this is a really nice fit for Price.

41. Buffalo- Colt McCoy, QB, Texas: This is why I don't think the Bills necessarily have to go QB at #9. McCoy, Pike, LeFevour, and Tebow will all be around here, and who knows, maybe McCoy becomes franchise material?

42. Tampa Bay- Rodger Saffold, OG, Indiana: Along with the Pats, the Bucs, Chiefs and Niners have got to cash in this year, with all four having three picks inside the top 50. The Bucs need help all over the line, so going with the best line prospect here makes sense.

43. Miami- Damian Williams, WR, Southern Cal: I like the Ginn/Camarillo/Bess trio, but health concerns, especially with Camarillo, are starting to take their toll on those Wildcat-happy Dolphins. Rest assured though, the Wildcat will still be used, but I see Miami really relying more on Chad Henne's arm this year, as they think they have found something in him.

44. New England- Tim Tebow, QB, Florida: I think for my final installment of the mock draft, I'm going to be really 50/50 on whether Tebow to the Pats is legit. To me, it makes too much sense, and when have the Pats gone according to plan on draft day? Still, I can't emphasize the fact that Tebow will do everything short of killing a man (because I think that's one of those commandments...maybe like #4 or 5) to succeed in the NFL. The Pats are lying to themselves if they think Brian Hoyer is going to be the face of the franchise.

45. Denver- Arrelious Benn, WR, Illinois: The Brandon Marshall situation is still up in the air, so the Broncos are going to have to play this one like he's gone already, and if Marshall ends up staying, they have a nice young receiver nucleus in Marshall, Benn, and Eddie Royal.

46. New York Giants- Sean Lee, ILB, Penn State: This is a guy that could really prosper under Tom Coughlin. Lee has a very workman-like attitude when he's on the field, and the Giants, unless they address this need in the first round at #15, have to take someone who can play the inside in the first two rounds.

47. New England- Ricky Sapp, OLB, Clemson: Hard to believe, but I'm actually hoping the Pats get one of the two top Clemson prospects (both would be great too). In these four picks inside the top 60, if the Pats do not at least attempt to beef up their pass rush, they automatically do no better than a "B" grade.

48. Carolina- Mardy Gilliard, WR, Cincinnati: The Panthers seem to have a knack for taking guys who not only play their own position well, but can also add to the special teams realm as well (Steve Smith, Chris Gamble).

49. San Francisco- Tyson Alualu, DT, California: This guy is on the rise, and it's not just because he has an awesome name. Much like Jared Odrick, who will be long gone by this point, Alualu can play both end and tackle, and it's all about versatility nowadays.

50. Kansas City- Vladimir Ducasse, OG, UMass: Like the Bucs, the Chiefs basically just need to draft anyone who could play any position on the line. Look for them to also be "best available player" shopping as well.

51. Houston- Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech: There was a time where I had Dwyer ranked higher than Matthews. Dwyer represents the last "true" runner who will have the chance to compete for a starting job in the 2010 season. The only question is his size, but that "negative" has been overcome before.

52. Pittsburgh- Brandon Ghee, CB, Wake Forest: In thinking about this pick, I couldn't help but think back to the first round...could the Steelers possibly bypass Iupati and Pouncey and go for a corner at #18? It is possible, especially if Kyle Wilson slides to them. However, in this scenario, the Steelers will still be looking for someone to play opposite of Ike Taylor.

53. New England- Aaron Hernandez, TE, Florida: I look at Alge Crumpler and I think "if we had gotten this guy five years ago, he could be the #1, and we wouldn't have to worry about a receiving option at TE." With Crumpler basically relegated to the Chris Baker block first, receive second role, the Pats should really give strong consideration to Hernandez, who would be the Pats' version of Dustin Keller.

54. Cincinnati- Chad Jones, S, LSU: The Bengals will address their need for safety, it's just a question of will they go with Mays in the first round, or wait until #54 and take either Jones or Nate Allen.

55. Philadelphia- Daryl Washington, OLB, TCU: A lot of people have the Eagles going QB in the second round. I'm thinking that there could be nothing worse than to waver the confidence of a newly minted QB (Kevin Kolb), who already has enough competition as it is (Vick...believe it) than to spend a high pick on a QB. So, the Eagles should probably wait and think about a guy like LeFevour in the third or fourth rounds and really continue to focus on things they don't have, like the fact that they only have three OLBs on their roster right now.

56. Green Bay- Chris Cook, CB, Virginia: The pundits are off and on about Cook, but when it comes time to be on the clock, it's going to be hard to overlook Cook at 6'2 being by far the tallest corner, especially in a division with Calvin Johnson and, yes, my man, Sidney Rice (if I don't have him on my fantasy team this year, I'll be so steamed!).

57. Baltimore- Jimmy Graham, TE, Miami: While grabbing Gresham in the first round may be the ideal choice, Ozzie Newsome has to know that the so-called "second tier" of TEs is actually quite good, with Graham, Gronkowski, Hernandez, Ed Dickson, Dorin Dickerson, and Dennis Pitta all projecting very well. Graham is a basketball player turned football player...love these guys at tight end. Playing power forward is basically like playing tight end without the three-second violations.

58. Arizona- Jared Veldheer, OT, Hillside: I mean Matt Leinart is going to get destroyed anyway, but just like the Chiefs drafting a tight end, you can at least say you tried to do something...wow are the Cardinals in trouble this year.

59. Dallas- Cam Thomas, DT, North Carolina: This is one of those guys that I see, and I instantly think he's a Cowboy. I don't know what it is, but when you see these big, athletic linemen who already have that mean look to them, they somehow always end up in Big D.

60. Seattle- Jahvid Best, RB, California: If Seattle cannot get Spiller or Matthews, they are looking at Best or Dwyer as being the "transition" backs. Anthony Forsett could prove everyone wrong and be that #1 guy, but ideally, Seattle will be looking for insurance in case that does not pan out.

61. New York Jets- Navorro Bowman, OLB, Penn State: Bowman slightly edged out Eric Norwood here based on value, and the fact that it would make me sick to my stomach if another guy I really liked ended up on the Jets (see: Curtis Martin, Jonathan Vilma, Thomas Jones, Jericho Cotchery, Nick Mangold, Darelle Revis, Dustin Keller).

62. Minnesota- Dexter McCluster, RB, Ole Miss: After what Percy Harvin did for them last year, let's just say that whole "multi-dimensional" offensive player would be welcomed here. If the Vikings don't get a legit #2 runner, they are really going to be feeling the loss of Chester Taylor, as if it wasn't big enough already.

63. Indianapolis- Perrish Cox, CB, Oklahoma State: This is clearly a need for the Colts with Marlin Jackson gone. There are a number of corners who could sneak their way up into the bottom of the second round (Jerome Murphy, Dominique Franks), but Cox has been pretty steady in terms of receiving a second round grade throughout this draft process.

64. New Orleans- Nate Allen, S, South Florida: Darren Sharper wants to come back to the Saints, but he's not going to be taking the veteran minimum to do so. So, this leaves somewhat of a gaping hole in the Saints' secondary. Allen probably won't be able to hit the Sharper-level, but he will at least be serviceable until the Saints can figure out how they will be able to solve their free safety situation.

So there is the third installment. I'm hoping to get one up right before the draft goes off (Thursday, April 22nd at 7:30 if you weren't aware) because there will be a lot more information about players and the directions teams are leaning in the days and hours right before the first pick is announced. I think what I will try and do is make a final first round mock, then wait until after the first round on Thursday and make a new second round mock on that Friday before coverage starts up again (rounds 2-3 are set to commence at 6:00 on Friday). Again, this would be the ideal situation to have...at this point, I'm just hoping to not be working during the first round. Hope everyone is well out there. Take care. Peace.

~Mell-o

Fantasy Baseball Dossier 3.0

"Showing you the way, leaving no doubt."

I'm more excited for fantasy baseball than I was for fantasy football...there's something you don't hear every day. However, I feel like the pool of players and the overall depth of really good young players has me giddy for Opening Day. Let's not waste any time and get into the theories I'm tossing around:

The Pay For Saves Theory:

Fantasy pundits have long shot down the whole notion of drafting closers in the early rounds because closers will be available once the season starts, and there are injury concerns, and blah blah blah. The fact is this: Right now, there are five legit closers who not only will help you with saves, but also ERA, WHIP, and Ks...

1. Joakim Soria, KC- By far the best closer in baseball right now. He's young, lights out, and has no competition whatsoever...even Jonathan Papelbon will be pushed on by Daniel Bard. Speaking of which...
2. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS- Ended '09 on probably the most negative note of his career...do you honestly think he is going to let his reputation be completely besmirched due to one bad outing? I think he pitches with a giant chip on his shoulder (that, and wanting a long-term contract)
3. Mariano Rivera, NYY- Wasn't he supposed to fade like five years ago...right after the '04 debacle? Well, here we are, and if you have a lead, you gotta go to Mo.
4. Jonathan Broxton, LAD- Despite playing for LA, I'm not hearing a lot of "Broxton is a shut-down guy" like I thought I would be. He hasn't even come close to hitting his ceiling, and while LA may have somewhat of a down year (lack of starting pitching, but more so playing in probably the toughest division in baseball), Broxton will get at least 40 saves...and speaking of the NL West...
5. Brian Wilson, SF- With Joe Nathan on the shelf, it leaves the door wide open for another closer to slip into the top 5. Enter Wilson. He's playing on a team that could make huge noise down the stretch, and more than likely will win 90 games. However, they don't have a ton of pop in their lineup, so the pitching will have a lot to do with their success. Wilson is as solid as they come, and due to his, and the Giants' still collective "under the radar" status, he will be able to continue to produce under somewhat anonymity.
   

My thinking is this: Why chance waiting for a closer to crop up when you can get a sure thing now? Drafting any one of these guys in the first six to seven rounds is a sound investment. After those five, you're looking at Brian Fuentes and, surprisingly, Andrew Bailey from Oakland being the only other "reliable" guys left. So this year, with question marks abound at the closer position, it may be wise to pick up a couple of the elite ones to assure some production there.

The Evan Longoria/Justin Upton Corollary:

In 2008, Evan Longoria barely played any time in the majors, and yet once he was about to be arbitration-ready, the Rays signed him to a six-year deal, with an option that could push it to nine years and $45 million. Justin Upton had a breakout year last year, and just received a six year deal worth a little over $50 million. Now while Longoria received his deal after just a couple of games, and Upton received his deal after almost a full season, I'm still thinking that Upton will be on the Longoria track of being really young, talented, rich, and having long-term stability. I'm not sure if we've seen the best of Upton yet, and he almost went for 25/25 in 138 games last year. He's a .300 hitter with everything...if you take him or Longoria at the end of the first round, rest assured that you will be seeing monster production that would justify a first round selection.

The Stockpiling of Young Arms Theory:

Here is something you can do once you start hitting the double-digit numbered rounds (or even before with guys like Lincecum, Grienke, Johnson, and Hanson). Let's use some #'s here to drive home how easy it actually is to build the second half of your pitching staff. Here are the pitchers you really need to keep an eye on come the 10th-11th rounds (average draft position in parentheses)

1. Clayton Kershaw (111.1)
2. Chad Billingsley (133.6)
3. Jair Jurrjens (134.9)
4. David Price (170.4)
5. Clay Buchholz (170.9)
6. Rick Porcello (186.0)
7. Stephen Strasburg (200.5)
8. Jonathan Sanchez (202.6)
9. Aroldis Chapman (210.9)
10. Brian Matusz (219.1)

A few things to note. First, Strasburg and Chapman have perhaps the biggest upside of anyone on this list, but they most likely will start off in the minors. Still, if you have space on your bench, those are two guys you absolutely want to keep around. Besides those two, you're almost guaranteed 15 wins, and in some cases (Kershaw and Sanchez most notably), close to 200 Ks. The reason I bring this up is that there is going to be options in the middle-to-late rounds that could really be beneficial to your staff, and that you don't necessarily have to break the bank to get an effective pitching group.

The Sneak In Jason Heyward Early In An Auction Draft Theory:

I, along with a great many I'm feeling, are intrigued with auction drafts. People have been doing these for years, but not since like two years ago has a platform, like ESPN (yeah I want to write for them, big woop, wanna fight about it?), brought it to the masses in a somewhat controlled environment. I love them actually. If you want to shoot the moon and get Pujols, Han-Ram, and A-Rod, you can absolutely make that happen. I think snake drafts create parity, while auction drafts create "chaotic parity." It's like "hey, so and so is in 5th place...but he has the top 5 guys in all of baseball, so I'm kind of concerned he'll sneak up on me via a trade or just them dominating." Very interesting indeed. So, getting to my original point. I've done a few of these, and what I'm noticing is that once you go through spring training, and the younger guys are just killing it, there's only so long when they will be "unknown" to the vast majority. Heyward is my prime example because I wanted him really bad back when the drafts were just kicking off...and now I'm feeling like a lot more people are sharing my enthusiasm about him. Anyway, the reason I'm thinking this might work is that in the beginning of these drafts, everyone starts off with the same amount of money. Obviously, as the picks progress, the financial disparity will become a lot clearer, and once you really get down to the nitty gritty, I've noticed there's always one or two guys who have "out-foxed" us all by waiting until everyone had no money, then dominating the sleepers towards the end of the draft. I do not like these people because, quite frankly, they're much more cleaver than I am...and I'll be damned if I'm out-cleavered. When you nominate a guy like Heyward early, you make people think a lot more about their long term answers than their immediates. The first few picks are not meant to be the sleepers, they are reserved for the stars. So, people will think stars...yet sneak Heyward in early, get him for five bucks, and it's a done deal. You wait too long, he'll go $10 easy. So, Heyward, or any major sleeper (outside of Strasburg, because he will start a bidding war regardless of where he goes) you want, throw them out super early...I feel like this is a winner, and hopefully this one is too (and...

transition...)

The After You Get Your Major Sleeper, Nominate Everyone You Hate Or Think Is Wildly Overpriced Theory:

This is just human nature to me...that's what I tell them. Anyway, have everyone fill their spots and spend their money on guys you don't want whatsoever. Sure, in the later rounds, once everyone's money gets low, and they only have to fill two positions, this won't work, and you'll end up with a guy you don't want. However, in the first round of every draft, it's always Derek Jeter. I was going to call this "The Derek Jeter Theory," but I want to include everyone in this...even those despicable Yankee fans (gotcha!). So, even though Jeter is a fantastic player (miraculously by the way, simple physics point to him also declining five years ago), it is against ever fiber of my being to have him on my team. I can't...I won't. Think about it like this...if you're a giant Imperial Force backer, despite Boba Fett being everything that represents everything in the Star Wars Universe, you can't have him on your team...but you can have a figurine of him, or a '95 Jeter rookie card...signed (and authenticated!). So, get all those guys you can't stand out there right away, eat into other budgets, and, hopefully, you get street value on your guys and not new Natick Mall prices (whoooaaaa I so did!).

The Down On Philly Theory:

I'm not down on the team's production as a whole, but I'm down on everyone's individual stats. There is a chance that almost everyone in that lineup and coming off the mound had peak years in the last year or two. It's almost like there is no room for any up-kick in their numbers. Think about it...Utley, Howard, Rollins, Ibanez, Polanco...how long can they keep this up for? Same goes on the mound. Halladay, Hamels, and Lidge...I'm pretty sure we've seen the best from them as well. While I'm not saying that these guys will not have good numbers, it is completely unreasonable to expect that they all come through like they have been doing. If two guys could possibly make a rise, it will be Werth and Victorino...we may not have seen the best from them. Again, all of these guys are pretty solid, but for the most part, I can't see any of them hitting their lofty projections.

So there are a few theories to start off with. Next, here are the top ten players at each position, along with their ADP so you can kind of tell when each will be coming off the board:

Catchers:

1. Joe Mauer (C/DH), MIN (12.6)
2. Victor Martinez (C/1B), BOS (47.4)
3. Matt Wieters, BAL (89.4)
   
4. Brian McCann, ATL (43.9)
5. Miguel Montero, ARI (143.0)
6. Russell Martin, LAD (211.8)
7. Ryan Doumit, PIT (188.1)
8. Mike Napoli, LAA (213.5)
9. Jorge Posada, NYY (145.5)
10. Yadier Molina, STL (182.6)

Sleepers: Buster Posey, SF (260.0); Carlos Santana, CLE (260.0)

First Basemen:

1. Albert Pujols, STL (1.1)
2. Prince Fielder, MIL (7.2)
3. Mark Teixeira, NYY (10.6)
4. Miguel Cabrera, DET (11.8)
5. Ryan Howard, PHI (13.2)
6. Joey Votto, CIN (41.4)
7. Adrian Gonzalez, SD (27.9)
8. Kendry Morales, LAA (59.8)
9. Derrek Lee, CHC (80.7)
10. Justin Morneau, MIN (47.7)

Sleepers: Chris Davis, TEX (145.5); Garrett Jones (1B/OF), PIT (207.1); Justin Smoak, TEX (260.0)

Second Basemen:

1. Chase Utley, PHI (5.9)
2. Brian Roberts, BAL (42.4)
3. Ian Kinsler, TEX (24.2)
4. Dustin Pedroia, BOS (32.4)
5. Robinson Cano, NYY (32.3)
6. Ben Zobrist (2B/RF), TB (64.2)
7. Aaron Hill, TOR (73.2)
8. Brandon Phillips, CIN (44.5)
9. Dan Uggla, FLA (111.2)
10. Placido Polanco, PHI (186.7)

Sleepers: Casey McGehee (2B/3B), MIL (216.1); Scott Sizemore, DET (221.5)

Third Basemen:

1. Alex Rodriguez, NYY (3.2)
2. Evan Longoria, TB (13.4)
3. Pablo Sandoval (3B/1B), SF (34.9)
4. Ryan Zimmerman, WSH (32.9)
5. David Wright, NYM (15.1)
6. Kevin Youkilis (3B/1B), BOS (38.6)
7. Gordon Beckham (3B/2B), CWS (87.6)
8. Mark Reynolds, ARI (45.5)
9. Chone Figgins, SEA (72.5)
10. Aramis Ramirez, CHC (56.0)

Sleepers: Jorge Cantu (3B/1B), FLA (159.8); Kevin Kouzmanoff, OAK (236.3); Pedro Alvarez, PIT (260.0)

Shortstops:

1. Hanley Ramirez, FLA (2.4)
2. Troy Tulowitzki, COL (20.8)
3. Derek Jeter, NYY (25.4)
4. Elvis Andrus, TEX (94.8)
5. Jimmy Rollins, PHI (28.6)
6. Yunel Escobar, ATL (132.2)
7. Stephen Drew, ARI (110.1)
8. Alcides Escobar, MIL (175.7)
9. Erick Aybar, LAA (155.1)
10. Alexei Ramirez, CWS (130.4)

Sleepers: Everth Cabrera, SD (222.5); Ryan Theriot, CHC (207.7)

Outfielders (overall OF rank by name):

Left Field:

1. Ryan Braun (1), MIL (4.6)
2. Carl Crawford (5), TB (10.8)
3. Matt Holliday (7), STL (21.3)
4. Jason Bay (9), NYM (45.4)
5. Adam Lind (LF/DH) (10), TOR (42.9)
6. Johnny Damon (17), DET (96.1)
7. Carlos Quentin (18), CWS (99.5)
8. Manny Ramirez (22), LAD (85.1)
9. Carlos Lee (24), HOU (56.9)
10. Raul Ibanez (26), PHI (103.7)

Sleepers: Nolan Reimold, BAL (155.3); Matt LaPorta (LF/1B), CLE (225.5)

Center Field:

1. Matt Kemp (3), LAD (8.8)
2. Jacoby Ellsbury (CF/LF) (4), BOS (20.8)
3. Grady Sizemore, (8) CLE (31.7)
4. B.J. Upton (11), TB (48.6)
5. Adam Jones (13), BAL (69.8)
6. Shane Victorino (16), PHI (76.0)
7. Curtis Granderson (19), NYY (57.0)
8. Andrew McCutchen (23), PIT (87.1)
9. Carlos Beltran (25), NYM (116.4)
10. Franklin Guiterrez (27), SEA (158.4)

Sleepers: Cody Ross (CF/RF), FLA (200.9); Drew Stubbs, CIN (260.0)

Right Field:

1. Juston Upton (2), ARI (18.3)
2. Jayson Werth (6), PHI (42.4)
3. Ichiro Suzuki (12), SEA (28.0)
4. Nelson Cruz (14), TEX (65.4)
5. Nick Markakis (15), BAL (62.3)
6. Shin-Soo Choo (RF/LF) (20), CLE (75.8)
7. Jason Heyward (21), ATL (164.9)
8. Andre Ethier (28), LAD (59.0)
9. Jay Bruce (29), CIN (105.6)
10. Jason Kubel (LF/RF/DH) (30), MIN (134.2)

Sleepers: Kyle Blanks, SD (220.7), Elijah Dukes (260.0)

Pitchers:

Starting Pitchers:

1. Tim Lincecum (1), SF (9.7)
2. Felix Hernandez (2), SEA (19.6)
3. CC Sabathia (3), NYY (21.9)
4. Zack Grienke (4), KC (25.5)
5. Roy Halladay (5), PHI (12.7)
6. Jon Lester (6), BOS (39.5)
7. Johan Santana (8), NYM (51.1)
   
8. Dan Haren (10), ARI (32.8)
9. Josh Johnson (11), FLA (75.1)
10. Cliff Lee (14), SEA (43.7)
11. Yovani Gallardo (15), MIL (65.0)
12. Chris Carpenter (16), STL (54.9)
13. Adam Wainwright (17), STL (43.9)
14. Justin Verlander (18), DET (44.3)
15. Clayton Kershaw (21), LAD (111.2)
16. Tommy Hanson (22), ATL (76.3)
17. Brandon Webb (23), ARI (89.0)
18. Josh Beckett (26), BOS (67.0)
19. Jair Jurrjens (27), ATL (135.0)
20. Jake Peavy (28), CWS (99.7)
21. Wandy Rodriguez (29), HOU (108.5)
    
22. Javier Vazquez (31), NYY (69.2)
23. Chad Billingsley (32), LAD (133.6)
24. Matt Cain (34), SF (91.9)
25. Ubaldo Jimenez (35) (97.6)
    
26. Ricky Nolasco (36), FLA (91.1)
27. Clay Buchholz (37), BOS (171.1)
    
28. Matt Garza (38), TB (138.8)
    
29. David Price (39), TB (170.4)
    
30. Cole Hamels (40), PHI (93.8)

Sleepers: Rick Porcello, DET (186.0); Jonathan Sanchez, SF (202.5); Aroldis Chapman, CIN (211.0); Brian Matusz, BAL (218.9)

Relief Pitchers:

1. Joakim Soria (7), KC (86.0)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (9), BOS (77.2)
3. Mariano Rivera (12). NYY (56.9)
4. Jonathan Broxton (13), LAD (59.9)
5. Brian Wilson (19), SF (119.9)
6. Brian Fuentes (20), LAA (158.5)
7. Andrew Bailey (24), OAK (103.5)
8. Francisco Rodriguez (25), NYM (86.4)
9. Heath Bell (30), SD (105.8)
10. Francisco Cordero (33) (109.8)

Sleepers: David Aardsma, SEA (179.2), Neftali Feliz, TEX (222.1)

Designated Hitters:

1. David Ortiz, BOS (168.6)
2. Hideki Matsui, LAA (173.6)
3. Vladimir Guerrero, TEX (157.3)
4. Jim Thome, MIN (260.0)
5. Andruw Jones, CWS (260.0)
   
6. Ken Griffey, Jr., SEA (260.0)
7. Travis Hafner, CLE (260.0)
8. Pat Burrell, TB (260.0)
9. Mike Sweeney, SEA (260.0)
10. Mike Jacobs, NYM (260.0)
    

So, we have the position ranks in place. Now, I'm going to show you what my ideal roster is looking like based on ADP, position eligibility, and the roster size based on ESPN's game (hypothetical round taken in parentheses)...

The "Dream Team"

C- Matt Wieters (9th)
1B- Prince Fielder (1st)
2B- Dan Uggla (14th)
3B- Evan Longoria (2nd)
SS- Elvis Andrus (11th)
1B/3B- Joey Votto (5th)
2B/SS- Alcides Escobar (19th)
OF- Jacoby Ellsbury (3rd)
OF- Jayson Werth (4th)
OF- Shane Victorino (8th)
OF- Jason Heyward (15th)
OF- Kyle Blanks (23rd)
UTIL- Gordon Beckham (10th)
BN- Matt LaPorta (25th)

P- Joakim Soria (6th)
P- Josh Johnson (7th)
P- Clayton Kershaw (12th)
P- Brian Wilson (13th)
P- Brian Fuentes (16th)
P- Clay Buchholz (17th)
P- David Price (18th)
P- Rick Porcello (20th)
P- Brian Matusz (22nd)
BN- Stephen Strasburg (21st)
BN- Aroldis Chapman (24th)

Sure, there are some stretches here, but all and all, very realistic...and very potent as well. You have to center your offense around a "bopper" in my opinion. Having a guy you know will go for 40/100 is a must, which is why Prince Fielder is pretty much my first round pick in every single draft (this is of course assuming that Pujols, Hanley, and Braun are off the board). The power continues with Longoria, Werth, Votto, and Uggla. From those four, I'm relying on three of them going for at least 30 homers. I then go to the next extreme and go for the real, real fast guys. Jacoby, Victorino, Andrus, and Escobar will all hover around 35 steals, with Jacoby and Andrus going for 50 or more. I'm feeling like all the speed and power that I've collected will hedge my bet on future production (Wieters, Heyward, Beckham, Blanks, and LaPorta). The reason I continue to be so huge on Heyward is that the Braves will have to score runs somehow, and outside of McCann and McClouth, there really isn't a whole lot going on there. He's going to start on Opening Day as well, so you won't have to worry about whether or not he'll play this year...oh, he'll play. In regards to Wieters and Beckham, they have already made impacts in the majors, so expecting both to have breakout years seems to make sense. Beckham is an extremely attractive option once we get about two weeks into the season. Right now, he's only eligible at third, but he is slated to be the White Sox' starting second baseman, meaning he will gain eligibility at both third and second, a very rare combo.

Next, the pitching staff. You need an "ace," and what happens is that you have four guys that fit that mold this year (Lincecum, Hernandez, Sabathia, Grienke), but you also have a few guys down the line that fill a similar need (Johnson, Carpenter, Verlander, Gallardo), so as long as you're able to get in on either an ace or a pseudo-ace, you have a nice jump off point. As I mentioned in my "pay for saves" theory, there are five closers you have to have. Ideally, you want two, which is what I came up with here. It's breaking down in a snake draft that Soria and Wilson are the two I'm ending up with. The rest of the staff rounds out something like this: really, really young starting pitchers. There are, in my opinion, the "Super Seven" young starters, and if I have the team go this way, I'll get them all, which is nuts. Kershaw is fifteen W's and 200 Ks in the bank. He's by far the biggest non-risk of the bunch. Then, there is the middle ground with Clay, Price, and Porcello. These are guys who will get 12-14 Ws and 150 Ks, totally solid, no questions asked. Then, there's the big risk, big reward guys. Matusz is the #2 behind Millwood in Baltimore. With the O's poised to finish around .500, I'm thinking Matusz going for 14-16 wins is not out of the question. The two on my bench, Strasburg and Chapman, are even bigger risks because both likely will not be in the majors at the start of the season. However, upon entry, they may come with Valenzuela-like numbers once they are in their respective rotations...that's how good both of them are right now. The first time through each team's lineups they will face, they're probably going to be super-dominant, and if the other teams do get wiser on either of them, it will be at the tail-end of the season, meaning the damage would have been done long before that point. You absolutely need a second pitch in the majors, but for young pitchers in their first go-around, speed kills.

So, there are a few of my thoughts on the world of fantasy baseball. Thanks for getting all the way through it, and if you decided to skip down through all of it just to see how I would wrap things up, you are also to be thanked. Take care everyone. Peace.

~Mell-o

2010 NFL Mock Draft 2.0

"When I step into the light, my eyes searching widely."

Yeah Big Red.

Welcome to the surprising NFL turn to March Madness here. For what it's worth...wow. The tournament has been amazing. So, here's why I'm going NFL and mock draft here. I feel like I can slip this in at a brief conscience-of-football that I'm having. Let's dive right in.

(Also, I want to apologize for anyone who likes or knows Everson Griffen, the defensive end from Southern Cal, as I egregiously omitted his name from the top 10 D-Ends in my first draft column. Really missed that one...oh well...hopefully this will be some kind of retribution here...)

1. St. Louis- Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma: I can't see this changing. It seems like from what the words have been out of St. Louis and Rams' people, this is their guy. Again...they have got to draft a QB in the top 5 at some points...if anything, just to kick the tires on the idea of finding a franchise QB, especially now that the Arena League is done...I mean, there goes that avenue.
2. Detroit- Russell Okung, OT, Detroit: This is funny...I feel like the Lions are in the same boat as the Rams are. They almost have to draft a franchise, or at least they will hope be a franchise, player at left tackle. Their QBs, despite having numerous first round WRs on one team at any given point in the last five years (sure, some didn't work out...but they were there) have been getting destroyed because they have no line. I thought Suh here automatically because he's my #1 this year, meaning he should probably go at least #2. I'm also feeling that the perception that the Lions seemingly were locked into getting either Suh or Warren here have started to fade off.
3. Tampa Bay- Gerard Warren, DT, Oklahoma: I think that Warren is the Bucs' guy even if Suh drops to them. I think they have Warren #1 on their board. Warren represents a more raw side, something that jives well in Tampa. The feeling is they have to find Warren Sapp here if they go DT, as invariably, those will be the comparisons. I feel like Warren represents Sapp more than Suh.
4. Washington-...Okay, I'm going to have to break this into two parts, as if all this goes according to said plan, you now have two guys (Suh, Eric Berry) who are absolutely worth not only trading into the top 5 for, but also worth the ridiculous amount of money they will have to drop to sign him. So, possible trading partners include, ugh, the Jets because they're wild on draft day, and always do whatever it takes to get their guy. who I'm suspecting is Berry to replace Kerry Rhodes...also, with all the Ed Reed comparisons, Rex Ryan's at least trying to get the next best thing. Then, there's Buffalo, who, so desperate for a QB they are, could potentially take Jimmy Clausen here to block a possible Seattle pick at #6...speaking of the Seahawks...they have two first rounders, and while it would ludicrous to expect them to trade both to move up, they will at least be able to keep one of them when trading up to the top 5 (most likely #14), so they are in a flexible position. Suh is the wild card simply because there is an inkling of voices getting out saying that, despite the amazing numbers and production, he won't work out. I can't say I'm one of them yet, but it's not totally ill-conceived it seems. Miami I think is in the most desperate need for a D-Tackle this close to the 'Skins pick, but you have to wonder if they are looking for a run stuffer to play in the 3-4...honestly, I think he would do amazing things in Miami. You need athletes to play in that sun...him and Jason Taylor, even though Taylor is getting up there...you can't argue that it is at least somewhat intriguing. So, here's the answer: The 'Skins have to get out of this pick, get at least two more high draft picks in addition to the first-rounder they surely will receive, and re-build. However, if Washington ops to stay here, they're going Brian Bulaga, OT, Iowa simply because Shanahan knows that without line help, his offense won't work. Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson?...hey...maybe it works. I really didn't like it the first time when it was called Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson. I'm believing NFL teams thinking this guy could be like Okung...the "10 Year Plan" left tackle.
   
5. Kansas City- Eric Berry, S, Tennessee: The Chiefs desperately need a tackle, but once Bulaga is gone (by the way, also put him with Berry and Suh as "the guys to move into the top 5 for"). Berry has the biggest "known" upside (generally, when you think a safety is going to do something in the league, he does something in the league), and he couldn't be the worse consolation prize right?
6. Seattle- Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska: It's inconceivable he drops this far without someone trading up to, maybe even here, to take him. However, if you think it's far-fetched Seattle goes D-Tackle over QB here, their DTs on the roster are Red Bryant, Colin Cole, Brandon Mebane, and Craig Terrell...and no one's mentioned the Seahawks being a player for one of the top two DTs? I had to look that up on two sites just to make sure the first one was right!
7. Cleveland- Joe Haden, CB, Florida: Haden is back in the saddle again now that he ran much better at his pro day, and with that, "garnering" a top 10 pick, despite the fact that he was worth it beforehand.
   
8. Oakland- Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida: I had Bruce Campbell here, and was almost completely sold that the freakishly athletic OT would go to the guy who loves athletes...but then it struck me...Al Davis not only like athletes, he likes the athletes you don't expect him to draft (last year, Jeremy Maclin is who everyone thought Oakland would go with because he did extremely well at the Combine, and yet they ended up taking Darrius Heyward-Bey, which caught everyone by surprise). I think the need to be unpredictable is almost as high as the need for speed. Everyone has Campbell here because he was so outstanding at the Combine, that you know Al was loving it...but not everyone thinks he'll take him...I think he has to go at least somewhat off the reservation here. Taylor Mays is a huge sleeper here.
9. Buffalo- Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame: The Bills' rep in New York will be knocking over small children to make this one. The Bills want either Okung or Bulaga, but I believe there is too much interest, and they'll get shut out. The Bills so much wanted Trent Edwards to be the man, but it seems like the thinking is that he may only be a 8-9 game guy...the momentum QB (the Bruce Gradkowski). Trent Williams may end up slipping into the top 10, but I suspect the Bills will be on the move looking for Bulaga or Clausen (if they believe he will go before here).
10. Jacksonville- Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama: I think the character issues plague Dez Bryant, because he probably should go here, but thinking about the Jags...receivers seem to kind of work so long as they are not overly hyped (Jimmy Smith, Keenan McCardell, Ernest Wilford, Mike Sims-Walker...so help me God, Mike Sims-Walker!). McClain is exactly what they need...the guy they could never find to replace Mike Peterson...the man in the middle.
11. Denver- Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech: Okay, same as the Jags through the first two commas...and...wait for it...but thinking about the Broncos, questionable-character receivers seem to be kind of out of style in Denver...knowing this, does Josh McDaniels really tap Bryant here? I keep thinking Morgan is probably the best overall athlete in this draft. He's Julius Peppers but 21.
12. Miami- Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee: This one, however, I'm completely unconvinced about switching. Williams is that run-stuffer the Dolphins need, and despite what may become a fever-pitched wanting of Ndamukong Suh, Williams is reminiscent of Vince Wilfork, and the Dolphins really wanted Wilfork to leave New England this year not only to not face him, but to sign him.
13. San Francisco- Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma: Again, there seems to be a growing consensus that Williams is top 10 bound, it's just a matter of who is willing to move up to get him, or if someone who's already there takes him. I think the Niners have to go tackle with one of these, whether it be Williams here, trading up to get Williams, or waiting until #17 to get Charles Brown.
    
14. Seattle- Charles Brown, OT, Southern Cal: This is why I think the Niners have to go tackle at #13, because more than likely, Williams is off the board by 13, and Brown will be the only guy left who has a somewhat top 15 grade...if the Niners think they can pass on Brown, and expect Pete Carroll to not give him serious consideration here, they're nuts.
15. New York Giants- Sean Weatherspoon, ILB, Missouri: I think Weatherspoon's leadership abilities will be brought more to the fore-front come draft day, as will Rolando McClain's, which is why he won't be here. Weatherspoon is "McClain Lite" for the sake of this arguement...I'm not saying he won't have a fine career, but all things considered, about 90-95% of teams are taking McClain over Weatherspoon.
16. Tennessee- Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State: I'm now convinced Wilson is on Haden's level. I know that Haden right now is better, but once they both hit the pros, my feeling now is that Wilson has as much, if not, more impact than Haden. Shocking, I know.
17. San Francisco- Earl Thomas, S, Texas: If the Niners come home with a tackle and a hard-hitting safety in the first round, they automatically get at least a B+ for their overall draft grade.
18. Pittsburgh- Mike Iupati, G, Idaho: Bruce Campbell was originally my mortal lock of the first round...this is now by mortal lock.
19. Atlanta- Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State: If he's not off the board via someone trading up to get him (Dallas comes to mind), Bryant going to Atlanta is arguably the most fascinating of all his potential destinations. Michael Jenkins obviously has not lived up to his lofty expectations...with Matty Ice behind center, Roddy White on one side, Bryant on the other, Gonzalez up the middle...wow...that's pretty much all there is to that.
20. Houston- Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State: I can't help but feel that the loss of the University of South Carolina's own Dunta Robinson (6 years, $57 million, 100% guaranteed satisfaction going to the Falcons) will cause the Texans to overcompensate, and perhaps reach for a corner here (also, remember how outstanding each of their defensive first rounders have been, including...the University of South Carolina's own Dunta Robinson! (we had a tough basketball season, sorry if I'm holding onto some pride here).
21. Cincinnati- Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma: The pressure to get Palmer something over the middle will become almost unbearable for Marvin Lewis, as, although he may want to go on a risk and draft Mays here, he has to realize that all his "high risk, high reward" guys have flamed out, and Gresham, despite the knee injury, is safe here.
22. New England- Brandon Graham, OLB, Michigan: I'm warming to Graham, but I'm still not convinced he's the guy. Come draft day, I may change, but right now, if you tell me Graham or Sergio Kindle, I'm going nuts about Kindle. Maybe that's me, but Kindle seems to simply be better right now...but we're a system team, and if Graham fits the system, then so be it...ERIC NORWOOD! That's it...draft Norwood...give me something as a USC alum I can root for on my hometown team (I may be wrong about this, because I don't have both research teams or the time for this...I'm pretty sure we haven't had anyone from Carolina since the first Super Bowl appearance when I was 1...come on Bill!)
23. Green Bay- Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers: Wow. Davis went from the #1 tackle and almost a sure-fire top 5 pick...but again..."character issues." They are plaguing some guys right now (Dez, Davis, Aaron Hernandez to name three). The Packers may be able to work this guy in, as they really have to address this need before anything else.
24. Philadelphia- Taylor Mays, S, Southern Cal: Very likely Mays gets scooped up before this just based on the fact that he's a physical beast. The Eagles let Brian Dawkins somehow meander off to Denver, and they've obviously been reeling since then. Mays' upside could have Eagles fans excited about their secondary once again.
25. Baltimore- Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida: Dunlap slips this far because of "questionable motor," which, if you're the Ravens, you have to believe won't slide with Ray Lewis still breathing...so maybe they take a chance here.
26. Arizona- Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas: I had Jerry Hughes here, and I'm not entirely convinced he won't be the guy, but I have Kindle ahead of Hughes in terms of his draft stock...potential though, they're about dead even.
    
27. Dallas- Maurkice Pouncey, G, Florida: Upgrading their line makes way too much sense. Pouncey and Iupati are the two interior linemen who not only will go in the first round, but will have every opportunity to start right away (although, as I mentioned in my last draft column, Iupati is ready to go right now, while you may experience a few more growing pains with Pouncey).
28. San Diego- C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson: Before anyone says anything, I am fully aware Spiller won't be here, but if we're doing this without trades, I honestly believe that no one else from picks 10-30 has their biggest, or even second biggest need be a running back. Meanwhile, the Chargers have either a runner or a nose tackle being by far and away their biggest needs. Having said that, Spiller will likely be gone...I have Ryan Matthews or Terrance Cody here. I think Cody did enough at his pro day to be a late first-rounder, while I thought all along that this kid can be motivated into being great, and thus spending a first round pick on Cody was not so far-fetched.
29. New York Jets- Jared Odrick, LB, Penn State: Again, this could be Hughes, but I feel like Odrick is more of Rex Ryan's kind of guy than Hughes simply because of how he played in the rough and tough Big 10.
30. Minnesota- Brian Price, DT, UCLA: Sticking with Price here because he had a giant upside, and again, the Williams' will be split either this year or next, meaning they are going to need someone to at least attempt to fill in.
31. Indianapolis- Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers: They want to see either Iupati or Pouncey fall to them here, but both of those guys I could absolutely see someone trading into the top 25 to take. It's not like taking McCourty will be a loss. They just lost Marlin Jackson, so corner is a need.
32. New Orleans- Jerry Hughes, LB, TCU: Another guy I can't see lasting this long, but if you're the Saints, you have got to be thinking edge rusher here, regardless of who is available. They may get lucky and have a top 15 guy like Kindle or Hughes fall to them here, but even a guy like, yes, Eric Norwood, or Daryl Washington, another TCU guy. In any event...you're the champs...this is what it's all about. Going last in the first round, with the entire time you're on the clock being a trip down memory lane through the playoffs, and into that Super Bowl win...cherish it...sometimes things you thought may become common ground do not end up in such fashion (see: my current situation).

Okay, no second round here. However, the second round may officially become "The Tebow Round" if he does happen to slip out of the first round. Teams will be jockeying for position to get high up in the second to take him, so teams like St. Louis (already set with QB thanks to Bradford) and Detroit (Stafford) may be in valuable position. The 'Skins may take him, so my feeling is that, if you want him, you'll have to trade with either the Rams, Lions, or Bucs. Tebow in New England makes too much sense. I'm pretty sure most people up here are kind of lukewarm on Tebow based on his off-the-field hoopla (mainly dealing with that Jesus fellow...not saying we're not religious...but we're not "all up in your face" religious...does that make any sense?). Tebow's a winner, and he seems to be hell-bent on making it at the next level. We have three more good years of Tom, and then...we're screwed. I'm not saying Tebow is going to be at a Brady level once he starts at QB, but right now, he is by far the best backup plan that will be available probably in the next five years. I used to hate Tebow, but it's like I used to hate Mariano Rivera...it seemed like they were both one-trick ponies (Tebow running up the middle, Rivera with the cut fastball), but now I'm understanding that, if it works, who cares? If you told Dolphins fans before the Pats game two years ago "hey, we're going to have Ronnie Brown lined up at QB, split out Chad Pennington, and put Ricky Williams in motion all game, but we're going to kick their asses," they wouldn't have taken it? I think it's bliss when it happens on your team, but when you play against them, you try and downgrade the accomplishments based on the fact that it is the same thing over and over again...and yet you can't stop it. So, I'm huge on Tebow.

The other picks the Pats have need to be spent on WR, TE, or just a general athlete. If you go receiver, it's got to be Demaryius Thomas from GA Tech if he happens to drop to them. So much raw upside, so little tape on him...it's a big risk, but consider they are anticipating Brandon Tate to try and come back, they will at least have some depth in case Thomas doesn't pan out...but I just can't see that happening. The TE to me comes down to Aaron Hernandez and Jimmy Graham. They have tried to have the burly, Ben Coates-type, but that has really not paid any dividends (Daniel Graham was here...allegedly, and Ben Watson's greatest accomplishment was running down Champ Bailey in that playoff game...which I'm still convinced was a touchback and not a touchdown, but I digress). So, perhaps changing philosophies would make a positive impact. In fact, overall, they need a change, which is what I think their draft needs to be all about...change. I feel like the Pats were ahead of their time about five years ago, but have allowed the rest of the league to catch up with them, and now are relegated to perhaps getting out of maybe one round of the playoffs before getting bounced. I'm not saying four draft picks will turn everything around, but if they hit on three of them, they will be looking at five years at least where they will be an 11+ win team.

Here's a list of guys the Pats need to consider at #'s 44, 47, and 53:

• Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
• Dan LeFevour, QB, Central Michigan
  
• Jordan Shipley, WR, Texas
• Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech
• Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame
• Eric Decker, WR, Minnesota
  
• Jimmy Graham, TE, Miami
• Aaron Hernandez, TE, Florida
• Rob Gronkowski, TE, Arizona
  
• Dexter McCluster, RB, Ole Miss
• Ricky Sapp, DE, Clemson
  
• Eric Norwood, OLB, South Carolina
• Daryl Washington, OLB, TCU
• Navorro Bowman, OLB, Penn State
• Sean Lee, ILB, Penn State
• Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida

So, the draft is now under a month away, and the general conception has now started to come out basically the same as what I've been thinking all along...this is the biggest draft in at least ten years for the Pats. If they don't cash in this year, it may never end, but if they can get some guys who can make both immediate and long-term impacts, then New England may be set up for five, ten years to come.

There will be at least one more mock on the way before the actual draft begins. Next up, Fantasy Baseball Dossier 3.0. Until then, take care everyone. Peace.

~Mell-o

March Madness Dossier 1.0

"The ball is tipped, and there you are."

Now this is exciting. For the first time since graduating from college, I will be there for that 12:00 tap on Thursday. Just incredibly pumped about this weekend (and some teams, which I will go through in a bit). St. Patty's Day on Wednesday going right into the first day of the tourney...is there a better way to daze into the next morning than four simultaneous first round games? Also, allegedly, the weather is supposed to be amazing Wed.-Fri....and in case you were unaware, canoeing to work may become en vogue in another day...that's how much it's rained the last three days. I have honestly never seen anything like it. I'm not at the point of being scared...but I am a little concerned that this rain catches up to us at some point (apparently manhole covers are just kind of floating above the ground now...which tends to be somewhat of an issue). In any event, I have some faith in this weather turning...who cares though? March Madness is here.

So, here's how I'm thinking about doing this. Basically for me, this is all about feel. In the past, I really allowed the numbers to clout my better judgment. I have to say that I really have almost felt sick to my stomach (this is what I imagine food poisoning is all about...which I think I may have had when I was 13...not sure). It's like I knew it would be more enjoyable to pull for Team X, but yet the numbers said Team Y by like a millimeter, so I went Y. So, this year, I will be breaking down just the overall feeling I have towards some of these teams, and who I'm going with. I'm doing this on a Monday, the day right after the selection show, so in no way can I get caught by one team, or swept up by some stat that I can't let go. Although it could be argued that picking closer to Thursday is probably the better move so any late injuries can be considered, or whatever could alter how some teams play. I'm thinking that the more time I have to think and re-think...and re-think the re-think, it's just going to make things worse. Trust me on this. So, here is the first March Madness Dossier (because "manifesto" is taken...and it reminds me of my GoldenEye Strategy Guide...the level tips were "dossiers"...good game).

The Midwest Region:

1. Kansas
   
2. Ohio State
3. Georgetown
   
4. Maryland
5. Michigan State
6. Tennessee
7. Oklahoma State
8. UNLV
9. Northern Iowa
10. Georgia Tech
11. San Diego State
12. New Mexico State
13. Houston
14. Ohio
15. UC Santa Barbara
16. Lehigh
    

First Round Winners: Kansas, Northern Iowa, Michigan State, Maryland, Tennessee, Georgerown, Georgia Tech, Ohio State

I really like UNLV's style, but trust me on Northern Iowa. This team was dominant this season, and I'm kind of curious to see how the Rebs respond after losing the MWC Championship to San Diego State on their home floor. No one in the 11-14 range really jumps out at me. Georgia Tech has that kind of raw athletic edge that could get them either bounced from the first round or into the Sweet Sixteen...hate those teams, you know, the one's you can't predict...because I'm predicting here.

Second Round Winners: Kansas, Michigan State, Georgetown, Ohio State

I think Evan Turner is at a Kevin Durant-like level in terms of his game, only I believe that unlike Durant, Turner at least has some experience playing in this type of atmosphere. So, that will get them through at least two rounds. I think Maryland is an entirely different team away from home. Also, they beat Duke at home, meaning Greivis Vasquez's career is complete already. Georgetown is looking too good right now, and probably should have won the Big East considering Butler from West Virginia went up-and-down on his game winner.

Third Round Winners: Kansas, Georgetown

If Kansas/Michigan State were to happen, it would pit two guards who have become legends at their schools (Kalin Lucas and Sherron Collins). I feel like Michigan State is an "every other year" team, where one year they make a huge run, the next, they're out in one round. Luckily for them, the two teams they get in the first two rounds have even more question marks in terms of their ability to make a run. Georgetown is going to benefit from the overwhelming pressure that will start to be placed on Evan Turner. I'm not saying that he is incapable of being able to handle it, but there is only so much you can realistically expect from one player. If Georgetown is able to wrap up Turner, which I believe they will do, then the Buckeyes are going to be in big, big trouble. They went from top 10 with Turner to unranked without him, to top 5 with him. Also, the Big 10 is wildly overrated in my estimation, so a battle-tested team like the Hoyas could really pose a threat to Thad Motta and Co.

Final Four Pick: Kansas

The Jayhawks are the "classy" team this year...I always like picking the classy teams because they have the ability to just completely floor other teams based on just how good they are. Kansas was at least in the top 2 teams all year long, and it's really tough to argue that they weren't the best.

The West Region:

1. Syracuse
2. Kansas State
3. Pittsburgh
4. Vanderbilt
5. Butler
6. Xavier
7. BYU
8. Gonzaga
9. Florida State
10. Florida
11. Minnesota
12. UTEP
13. Murray State
14. Oakland
15. North Texas
16. Vermont

First Round Picks: Syracuse, Florida State, Butler, Vanderbilt, Xavier, Pittsburgh, BYU, Kansas State

This is by far the scariest region for me...I am really, really nervous about everything, and that's never a good sign. My strategy is to go conservative in the first round, then start to get somewhat goofy in the second, followed, by conservative-conservative. I am not sure if this formula will work, but if it does...we may have a theory in the works. Ay-Yo! Theory in the works! Anyway, going chalk pretty much throughout. 'Cuse/UVM is actually going to be a decent game. Marquis Blakely...coming to a Vegas Summer League team near you. The center for Florida State, Solomon Alibi, is just good times all-around. He went from being a horrendous free throw shooter to almost 80% in one year. Really like UTEP, and I think that game with Butler will be great. However, I like the experience of Butler. I feel like they will have adjusted to being on the 4 or 5 line. They aren't the proverbial underdog anymore (Gonzaga syndrome...team goes from being cinderella, to powerhouse that can't handle a top seed, to okay, we're good, we can accept being the favorite). I feel like the Vandy/Murray State game has OT written all over it, and my gut is telling me Vandy wins a game that goes to extra frames. Minnesota is smoke and mirrors...yet I keep feeling all this Big 10 smack talk that I've put out, and will continue to put out throughout, could kill me...nah, I'll be alright. Florida as a #10 is interesting considering I thought Mississippi State was a better team, and not only does Florida have a higher rank, but State's not even in the tournament. Kansas State is a top-10 ranked Georgia Tech...no clue what team will show up.

Second Round Picks: Syracuse, Butler, Xavier, Kansas State

From here on out, I will be looking for a reason not to go with Syracuse...just a fair warning there. It's not that I don't like them, but they seem like they could grenade if they don't get their center, Arkinze Onuaku, back. However, he is their fourth leading scorer, and fourth leading rebounder, so I'm not sure if they will get entirely derailed whether or not he plays. As I was saying earlier, I really think this will be the year that Butler becomes comfortable with being a dominant presence in college basketball, and they will definitely make things interesting for Syracuse in the Sweet Sixteen (again, if all goes according to plan). Xavier was a terror for Pittsburgh last year, and I'm expecting big noise from them this year. Kansas State I just don't like at all, but I'm down on BYU as well, so it's really a lose-lose for me. Taking it in on a whole, I'm not sure BYU has that edge that is needed to beat Kansas State...they're kind of stagnant to be completely honest with you. So, K-State gets through to the Sweet Sixteen

Third Round Picks: Syracuse, Xavier

I really think Syracuse/Butler has huge potential ramifications. If Butler is able to pull this game off, it will officially bring Indiana basketball back to the forefront after the Hoosiers have been a laughing stock ever since their Final Four appearance back in 2002, and the Pacers have sucked since Reggie Miller hung it up (that 30 in 30 on Reggie and the Knicks was outstanding by the way). Again, even if K-State survives BYU, they will entertain the Musketeers, who conceivably could have been in five Elite Eights since 2004 (have appeared in two).

Final Four Pick: Syracuse

Again, I'm going conservative here purely based on the fact that there is no other team I can see winning this region. Really, it's up to Butler. There is an absolute chance they run the tables to Indy, but I think the Orange may play with a chip on their shoulder considering they got bumped by Duke to play in Salt Lake City instead of Houston (I haven't been to either of the two...in terms of where a winter-locked team would want to go to get to the Final Four, I'm thinking the warmer locale is what's up).

The East Region:

1. Kentucky
2. West Virginia
3. New Mexico
4. Wisconsin
5. Temple
6. Marquette
7. Clemson
8. Texas
9. Wake Forest
10. Missouri
11. Washington
12. Cornell
13. Wofford
14. Montana
15. Morgan State
16. East Tennessee State

First Round Picks: Kentucky, Wake Forest, Cornell, Wisconsin, Marquette, New Mexico, Missouri, West Virginia

You have to wonder how well Kentucky would do in, say, the Big East or the Big 12...I'm thinking 32-2...yeah they're that good. Texas has been in a two-month free fall that saw them go from #1 to unranked and an eighth seed in the tourney. Al-Faroug Aminu officially wins the "guy with the name" award from Wake. Cornell is so good. They absolutely took it to all their non-conference opponents, but just couldn't seal the deal. Plus, you need a #12 (that actually should be posted under every bracket...NOTE: While filling out the contents of this bracket, is by complete theoretical absoluteness you select a 12 to beat a 5). I wanted to go U-Dub, but then I saw they have a guy named Isaiah Thomas...that used to be a solid name to have. Mizzou was in the Elite Eight last year, and I'm picking against Clemson...totally comfortable with that choice.

Second Round Picks: Kentucky, Cornell, New Mexico, West Virginia

Yeah Big Red. How can you root for Wisconsin unless you're from there or went there? That is such a horrendous style of play. Play good D, score 60, and hope for the best. Cornell has experience in big spots against big names this year. Everyone is down on the Lobos because they are a #3, and I respect that because I never have felt exceptionally comfortable with a beginning of the year sleeper that turns out to not be in a sleeper position. However, it's going to be way too tough to root against them, so I'm sticking with New Mexico. Also, if Marquette wins this game, they play West Virginia in the third round...it's really tough for me to imagine an in-conference matchup this early in the tournament. I know we had one last year with Pitt and 'Nova, but that was to get to the Final Four, not the Elite Eight. West Virginia is riding a really nice luck streak. Especially in the first few rounds, it's better to be lucky than good.

Third Round Picks: Kentucky, New Mexico

Lobos...simply because they were my team all along. I watched them so closely as the reeled off win after win and steadily ascending the polls without too much wavering. Yes, they lost two games in a row and three of five including a 12-point loss to UNLV on January 9th, which before their conference loss against San Diego State (yes, them again), was the last time they lost a game (that would be two months and fifteen games ago if you were curious...I know I was). Too good too quick? Perhaps, but considering I already had my mind made up about who was advancing out of this region about two months ago, this isn't really that much of a gamble.

Final Four Pick: Kentucky

Yeah, I'm not picking against Kentucky regardless of how much I like a team. I really think New Mexico is outstanding...Kentucky is just way up in some other atmosphere that I'm not even sure we knew existed, especially considering they are led by two freshmen. Here's the thing about that though: I'm pretty sure they have no idea they are supposed to feel any kind of pressure at all. Here is the best team to come out of Kentucky in fifteen years, they've been in the top 5 all year, and yet you couldn't even really notice. Sure, they lost to USC, and that was great, but it took a superhuman effort by a superhuman individual to accomplish that, something that no one on this side of the bracket has.

The South Region:

1. Duke
2. Villanova
3. Baylor
4. Purdue
5. Texas A&M
6. Notre Dame
7. Richmond
8. California
9. Louisville
10. Saint Mary's
11. Old Dominion
12. Utah State
13. Siena
14. Sam Houston State
15. Robert Morris
16. Arkansas/Pine Bluff or Winthrop

First Round Picks: Duke, Louisville, Texas A&M, Siena, Notre Dame, Baylor, Saint Mary's, Villanova

Let me make one quick observation before I dive into this...why does the play-in winner play the #3 overall seed and not the #1 overall seed? Do you see where I'm coming from here? Wouldn't you think that the best team would play the "worst" team in? Isn't that what this whole bracket thing is about? Seeding based on how you played the season? Also, Duke has by far the "easiest" road to the Final Four, and yet they're the third #1...interesting. You have to hope for two things: 1.) A Coach K/Pitino matchup, and 2.) Pitino wears the matching white shirt and jacket combo that made me think he was at Puffy's "White-Out" Hamptons party. You just have to trust me on Siena. I was actually up there last weekend grabbing every case of Yuengling I could possibly find in the Albany area (sorry Albany-based spring breakers...that's the way the s___ boils down sometimes...one day Yuengling is bountifully available, and then a storm comes in with an extra large truck bed, and it's all over), and everyone is wearing Siena gear...everyone. The only thing that concerns me is that no one is giving Purdue a chance to get to the Sweet Sixteen, and just a slight edge in their game against the Saints (currently a four-point favorite)...oh, and did I mention they're the Saints? Hmmm...now that's interesting. Notre Dame has at least one win left in them. Richmond would be much better served as a lower seed. I'm not sure how they will respond to being on the top half.

Second Round Picks: Duke, Siena, Baylor, Villanova

Again, Siena. Here's a team who has been to the tournament three straight years, and have won a game in each of those two years. So, they're hungry to see what awaits beyond just winning the first round. Notre Dame had a great run to get to this spot, but I can see them running out of steam. Baylor is a pure energy team, and if they are not feeling it, then its curtains. My hopes are that they come out rolling, which they are more than capable of doing. 'Nova will have their hands full with Saint Mary's. I can't believe St. Mary's would not have gotten in had they lost to Gonzaga in the WCC finals. This is as streaky as they come, and if the Gaels start shooting, 'Nova may not be able to keep up.

Third Round Picks: Duke, Baylor

If Baylor makes it to the Sweet Sixteen, they will be playing to get to the Final Four from Houston...I can see Baylor-mania happening if the Bears make it that far. 'Nova is such a gritty team that they could put a wrench into the mania, but I can't help but really be on board for this.

Final Four Pick: Baylor

As I was saying, I can't help but really get on board with Baylor right now. Here's how this will shake down: Duke will be playing a powerhouse team on the road, with most likely a 75/25 split in Baylor's advantage crowd-wise. I know that this kind of thing happened to Michigan State last year, but UNC was not going to be defeated (I know, I picked MSU, but I think I lost track of how good UNC was...I mean it was either them, the Horford/Brewer/Noah Gators, or the '05 Tar Heels for best team of the decade). Duke, on the other hand, can be beaten in a hostile environment, like what happened against Maryland. If Baylor can make it, the entire state of Texas will be pulling for them, and even more so considering who they are playing.

The Final Four

The Midwest Region Winner vs. The West Region Winner: Kansas

Stay classy Kansas. I just love Sherron Collins. It's one thing if you have a superstar on you're team, but it's completely different if you're superstar is A.) a senior, and B.) a point guard. Collins is not only both of these, but he also has a national title already under his belt. He will likely be Tourney MOP even if they don't win the title (MOP for "Most Outstanding Player"...instead of MVP, you know, like every sport on God's green Earth calls it).

The East Region Winner vs. The South Region Winner: Kentucky

My initial thought was this: There is no way a matchup like Kansas/Kentucky could ever happen unless it was somewhere other than the national title game. However, we seem to be breaking the mold in terms of the dream matchups that happen that you thought you would never see. Something always disrupted this in the past, but you had Yankees/Phillies, Colts/Saints, Red Wings/Pens...twice, and coming soon, Cavs/Lakers. So, why not have the two best teams by far square off for the ultimate prize.

The Champs: Kentucky

Calipari has been to two Final Fours. The first time with UMass (although because of Marcus Camby, it's been stricken from the record, but trust me, "Refuse to Lose" happened), they got bumped by, yup, Kentucky, in the national semifinal. The second time, he went with Memphis to the national final only to lose to, yup, Kansas. So, you have a "third time is the charm" and "revenge game" corollaries going for them. They have the best class of freshmen since the Fab Five. I always love the frosh superstar duo as well. This is Conley/Oden but way better. What's even crazier is that we really have no idea where the ceiling of this team is. You just have to hope for this game though. It would be nice to have the best two teams going after each other. A clear "good guy/bad guy" element also comes into play with Calipari's litany of alleged violations...well some alleged, others turned out to be proven. I'm thinking the 'Cats are 'dogged in that game as well, and in these marquee matchups, the underdog has been doing quite well.

And now, factual information. Here are the start times for Thursday and Friday's games:

Thursday:

12:20- MW (7) BYU vs. (10) Florida; Oklahoma City
12:25- S (6) Notre Dame vs. (11) Old Dominion; New Orleans
12:30- S (2) Villanova vs. (15) Robert Morris; Providence

2:30- W (4) Vanderbilt vs. (13) Murray State; San Jose
2:40- W (2) Kansas State vs. (15) North Texas; Oklahoma City
2:45- S (3) Baylor vs. (14) Sam Houston State; New Orleans
2:50- S (7) Richmond vs. (10) Saint Mary's; Providence

4:45- W (5) Butler vs. (12) UTEP; New Orleans

7:10- MW (8) UNLV vs. (9) Northern Iowa; Oklahoma City
7:15- E (1) Kentucky vs. (16) East Tennessee State; New Orleans
7:20- E (6) Marquette vs. (11) Washington; San Jose
7:25- MW (3) Georgetown vs. (14) Ohio; Providence

9:30- MW (1) Kansas vs. (16) Lehigh; Oklahoma City
9:35- E (8) Texas vs. (9) Wake Forest; New Orleans
9:40- E (3) New Mexico vs. (14) Montana; San Jose
9:45- MW (6) Tennessee vs. (11) San Diego State; Providence

Friday:

12:15- E (2) West Virginia vs. (15) Morgan State; Buffalo
12:25- W (6) Xavier vs. (11) Minnesota; Milwaukee
12:30- E (5) Temple vs. (12) Cornell; Jacksonville

2:30- S (4) Purdue vs. (13) Siena; Spokane
2:35- E (7) Clemson vs. (10) Missouri; Buffalo
2:45- W (3) Pittsburgh vs. (14) Oakland; Milwaukee
2:50- E (4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Wofford; Jacksonville

4:45- S (5) Texas A&M vs. (12) Utah State; Spokane

7:10- W (8) Gonzaga vs. (9) Florida State; Buffalo
7:15- MW (7) Oklahoma State vs. (10) Georgia Tech; Milwaukee
7:20- MW (5) Michigan State vs. (12) New Mexico State; Spokane
7:25- S (1) Duke vs. (16) Arkansas-Pine Bluff/Winthrop; Jacksonville

9:30- W (1) Syracuse vs. (16) Vermont; Buffalo
9:35- MW (2) Ohio State vs. (15) UC Santa Barbara; Milwaukee
9:40- MW (4) Maryland vs. (13) Houston; Spokane
9:45- S (8) California vs. (9) Louisville; Jacksonville

So, there you have it. I went basically the opposite of how I have been going the entire time I've been predicting this tournament. It was all about feeling here. No numbers involved at all...you have no idea how tough this was. No RPI, no three-point percentages, no adjusted scoring margins...nothing! So, hopefully it goes well, and if it doesn't, I'm pretty sure that leaves me where I was to begin with. So, good luck everyone. May your brackets be masterful ones. Peace.

~Mell-o