"I take it upon myself to handle mine."
So now the pieces are starting to fall into place. Since the last time I was talking mock drafts, two first round picks have been moved in two separate deals (Cutler to Chicago, Peters to Philly). So, the team needs are becoming more concrete. With the draft just one week away, here is my third mock draft:
1. Detroit- Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia: For whatever reason, the Lions could not pull off a Jay Cutler trade, and instead, they are now going to be playing against him twice a season. It was simply baffling to me that Detroit could not get any kind of deal done. If Stafford doesn't pan out, and again, I don't think he will, then the Lions are handcuffing themselves for six years and $35 million guaranteed money for a QB who might make Lions' fans reminiscent of another QB bust (Joey Harrington).
2. St. Louis- Jason Smith, OT, Baylor: For many weeks, the talk was that Eugene Monroe would be the guy going to the Rams. However, as the pro days have come and gone, and a team like the Rams have had more time to evaluate the talent on the board, it has become clear that the Rams, if they stay at #2, cannot afford to pass on Smith. He is the unanimous #1 tackle on the board.
3. Kansas City- Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest: This is almost too easy, which really makes me wonder, especially with Pioli at the helm now. You really never know what you are going to get with a Pioli draft. I will say this: If teams are going to trade into the top 5, they are trading up to get either Curry, or the guy going at #4...
4. Seattle- Mark Sanchez, QB, Southern Cal: I'm officially on board with the Seahawks going QB here. There are obvious question marks concerning Matt Hasselbeck's health, and despite having a nice run towards the end of the season, Seneca Wallace is not the long-term answer. Sanchez has been holding steady as a top 10 QB. Again, the 'Hawks could go for the offensive tackle, but right now, I have them taking Sanchez.
5. Cleveland- Brian Orakpo, DE/LB, Texas: I'm sticking with Orakpo here because I think Mangini is very enticed by the hybrid kind of defensive end. Remember last year, he took Vernon Gholston sixth overall, and while Gholston hasn't quite panned out yet, the Jets were huge on him going into the draft, and I feel like that kind of thinking will carry over to Cleveland. If Braylon Edwards does end up getting traded (Giants maybe?), then I see Crabtree going here. If all things stay the same, I think the Browns will focus on defense.
6. Cincinnati- Andre Smith, OT, Alabama: You have to wonder when the Bengals fans are going to start revolting kind of like the Portland fans did during the "Jailblazer" era. If this pick actually goes through, the Bengals are positioning themselves to be one of the all-time bad character teams in the history of sports.
7. Oakland- Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri: So this is kind of a surprise here, but then again, it's the Raiders...don't be surprised by anything they might do. My thinking here is that the Raiders will be looking for the speed aspect that Maclin brings. With Crabtree's foot still somewhat of a question mark, the Raiders will pass on him and take a guy who not only will be a very functional receiver, but also could factor into the return game (Johnnie Lee Higgins is already a great return man, but he may be counted on to be the #1 receiver this year, meaning the Raiders may limit the amount of returns he gets).
8. Jacksonville- Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia: It looks like the Jags are very close to acquiring Torry Holt, and while that will not completely eliminate the need for a receiver, it definitely lessens the burden they may have been feeling to fill the spot with the eighth pick. The Jags already let their starting left tackle walk (Khalif Barnes, who signed with Oakland), and don't appear to have anyone to fill the spot in. Also, considering the recent bad luck the Jags have had with receivers in the first round (Matt Jones and Reggie Williams), you would think they would go anti-Detroit and stray away from taking a receiver here.
9. Green Bay- B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College: There is still a bit of uncertainty about whether or not Raji actually tested positive at the combine. I don't really understand the confusion. It's pretty much a black and white issue. He either did or he didn't...what's the problem? In any event, because you're supposedly innocent until proven guilty, and because I'm a gigantic homer, I'm going to just assume that it's all a hoax, kind of like Vince Young's wonderlic test.
10. San Francisco- Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech: I'm going to stand pat with this pick as well. If you're the Niners, how can you really pass on Crabtree at 10? Before his injury, he was one of the options to go #1 overall to Detroit. If they are convinced that his injury will not slow him down in '09, then I don't think San Fran can afford to let him get away.
11. Buffalo- Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss: With the Jason Peters trade, immediately left tackle becomes one of the biggest needs for the Bills. When you trade a Pro Bowl-caliber tackle, you are basically sending a message that "we are totally confident that we can find a similar type player in the first round who can step in from Day 1." I think Oher is the recipient of bad luck, going in a draft where tackle is the deepest position by far in the first round. Most other years, he's a top 5 pick.
12. Denver- Everette Brown, DE/LB, Florida State: There are two schools of thought as to what the Broncos are going to do with their two first-rounders. They could address the defense, which was just dreadful last year, with both picks, or they could go quarterback with either Josh Freeman, or package picks to move up to take Mark Sanchez. For right now, I think they will go defense with both picks, and ride out Kyle Orton as the starting QB (just saying that is scary...I can't even imagine what's going on in Denver right now).
13. Washington- Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee: I think Washington is hoping that one of the top four tackles falls to them at 13, but in this mock, all four are off the board at this point. So, the 'Skins will look to sure up the end position. With Jason Taylor gone, and the health of Phillip Daniels up in the air, Washington has a glaring hole opposite of Andre Carter on the line.
14. New Orleans- Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB, Ohio State: I never really even thought about running back here, and then I started looking at other mocks, and re-evaluating the Saints' backfield. New Orleans has Reggie Bush, and then after that, it seems like they have an ever-changing rotation of backs like Pierre Thomas and Aaron Stecker following. The thing about Bush is that he's an explosive playmaker, but he's simply not an every-down kind of back. So, picking a running back in the first round actually makes a lot of sense.
15. Houston- Clay Matthews, LB, Southern Cal: What I hear coming out of Houston is that they are looking at two players here: Matthews and Malcolm Jenkins. Right now, the read is that they will be going linebacker, so from everything I can gather, they have Matthews #1 on the board at linebacker after Curry.
16. San Diego- Rey Maualuga, LB, Southern Cal: I seem to recall the Chargers having another Samoan inside linebacker from Southern Cal back in the day (Seau)...and I think that worked out pretty well.
17. New York Jets- Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State: The Jets are another team that really could have benefited from a Jay Cutler deal. It really puzzles me that the Bears were able to pull that deal off. It's not like they were set at QB by any means, but they at least had two guys who have played at a decent level in the pros (Orton and Grossman). The Lions and the Jets have no one. Am I supposed to believe that the Jets can seriously contend for a playoff spot with Kellen Clemens calling the plays? This is a tentative pick for me because I just can't see the Jets entering next season with Clemens and that's it. So, they either go QB, or they use a pick in the second or third round (Nate Davis? Rhett Bomar? Stephen McGee?) to add some depth.
18. Denver- Brian Cushing, LB, Southern Cal: Again, I think the Broncos double-down on defense. Cushing gives them some linebacker depth, which they have none of, and was made evident last year when D.J. Williams was hurt.
19. Tampa Bay- Aaron Maybin, DE/LB, Penn State: From the start, everyone had the Bucs taking Freeman here. However, it's looking like the Bucs may have to trade up into the top 15 to grab Freeman (Washington at 13 is an ideal candidate). If they stay at 19, Maybin is not the worst consolation prize. The Bucs basically released their entire linebacking core, so this would address a need for sure.
20. Detroit- Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State: I think the reason Jenkins is falling is because no one knows exactly what to make of him. Can he play corner at an elite level, or does he fit the mold of a safety more? In any event, the Lions need everything, so what they do here is take the best player available, and then figure out how he will fit into the system.
21. Philadelphia- Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia: With Buckhalter going to Denver, the Eagles are in need of giving some help for Brian Westbrook. It's also an encouraging sign about Moreno that he was able to catch balls more fluently out of the backfield this year (he previously had not had a receiving TD until this year). If Moreno's game continues to evolve, he could step in right from the start and be a comparable #2 back.
22. Minnesota- Max Unger, C, Oregon: It appears now that the Vikings will not be screwing around in terms of finding a replacement for Matt Birk. While they could go receiver here, I think they stay on the offensive line here. I like Unger, Ebir Britton, or Alex Mack going here. I think as we get closer to the draft, I'll be able to get a better read on this one.
23. New England- Larry English, DE/LB, Northern Illinois: Despite a lot of people throwing a ton of weight on the fact that Belichick attended the UConn pro day in person (Mel Kiper has Donald Brown here, others, like Mike Mayock on NFL Network, have Darius Butler here), I still think the Pats have almost no choice but to get a playmaking pass-rusher here. If you watched one, maybe two Pats games last year, you would be able to realize just how awful the pass rush was last year.
Sorry to break away from the draft for a little bit, but I do have to mention something real quick. On Tuesday, the NFL schedules were announced, and the CBS Scene at Patriot Place was having a little shindig that included a raffle for two tickets to the home opener on Monday Night Football against Buffalo (which, not going to lie, is the only reason I went). Also, NFL Network cameras were there, Bob Kraft was there, etc. Anyway, I ran into Brian Lowe there. For those of you who do not know who that is, he is the co-anchor of "Patriots Today," a daily show that patriots.com puts together. Anyway, being the pesky draftnik that I am, I couldn't help but ask him some questions about the draft.
Basically, Brian was in agreement with me in saying that the Pats should go defense in the first round. Now, the position may not be linebacker, but in running down the players that we both thought the Pats would go for there (Clay Matthews and Larry English most notably), it seems like if the Pats can get a hybrid kind of outside player, like they have with Adalius Thomas, then they would grab him at 23.
I was surprised at the fact that Brian was not very big on Aaron Maybin, who I have off the board at this point. I think he shared the same concerns as a lot of people have about Julius Peppers, or any linebacker they could potentially take here, which are the covering abilities of the linebacker they get. Peppers is a great pass-rusher, but if he were to play OLB in the 3-4, it would require him to be able to drop back into coverage. Maybin fits the Peppers mold in that he is very good at getting to the QB, but his coverage skills are a question mark.
The next topic we discussed was the idea that it was almost an impossibility that the Pats would keep all three of their second round picks. So, do they trade up, or trade out of the picks? When we recalled some of the instances the Pats moved up the board (Bethel Johnson in '03, Chad Jackson in '06), we quickly realized two things: 1) The Pats are not good going up the board, and 2.) They do not draft receivers very well. Outside of Deion Branch and David Givens, the Pats have really had no luck at drafting receivers (I was looking at a column in...I want to say the Sun-Chronicle...where they outlined the ten biggest draft busts of the Belichick era, and like five of them were receivers). So, the thought went back to trading out of the second and grabbing a first for next year. To do this, it would require that they give up either #34, which of course was the Cassel/Vrabel compensation, or #47, which they got from San Diego last year, to pull this off. A couple of issues arise with this though. The 34th pick is incredibly valuable this year, but the Pats really could use that pick to address even more of their defensive needs (we discussed Alphonso Smith, Darius Butler, Connor Barwin, Louis Delmas, and if they're lucky, Vontae Davis here).
Then, with the 47th pick, the talks immediately went to Pat White, who is probably the most intriguing prospect in the entire draft. I think many on the inside are in consensus in saying that White is not going to be an every-down QB, but what he does bring to the table is a guy you could bring in to run the Wildcat, another receiving option, and an emergency QB. Remember that right now, the Pats have Brady, Kevin O'Connell, Matt Gutierrez...and that's pretty much it. I'm not sure if the Pats have the right personnel to run a Wildcat though. The running backs they do have right now are bruisers, whereas the Wildcat requires more of a finesse style. I'm not as huge on White coming here as others are, but still, it remains a very interesting possibility.
The last question I has for Brian was who does he think is a guy, regardless of what round he is supposedly going to go in, would be able to make the transition from a college system to the Patriots' system the best. Three names that came up were English, Barwin, and Clint Sintim. I thought Sintim was a great choice, and I was in total agreement with Brian on that. Sintim played at UVA, and the Wahoos are one of the few college teams that implements a 3-4 formation in their defense. So, I would say to keep an eye out for Sintim when these second-rounders start coming up.
...and now, back to the draft...
24. Atlanta- Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State: If Philly passes on Pettigrew at 21, which is a real possibility because they now only have one first round pick, then Pettigrew is a slam dunk to land with the Falcons. Again, the focus should continue to be getting help for Matty Ice, and Pettigrew is easily the best tight end in this year's draft.
25. Miami- Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland: While I originally was thinking defensive back here, I have been reading about Miami going cross-country working out every receiver outside of the Crabtree/Maclin pairing that could fall to the end of the first round. Bey continues to be the third rated receiver on the board, so he goes off here to the Dolphins.
26. Baltimore- Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina: I know that the Ravens need help at cornerback, but what was an even more glaring weakness watching them in the playoffs, and especially the AFC Championship against Pittsburgh, was that Baltimore simply does not have a big possession receiver. Mark Clayton has not panned out the way they thought he would. I think outside of Crabtree, Nicks will have the biggest immediate impact on whatever team he ends up on.
27. Indianapolis- Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss: Well, the Colts literally have no one playing defensive tackle for them right now, so this one becomes fairly easy. Still, you can never go against the Colts taking a receiver in the first round (Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez).
28. Buffalo- Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU: So this all kind of works out for the Bills. They trade away their left tackle, but then draft Oher, and now, they get a top-5 DE as well. Not bad at all. I am between Jackson and Michael Johnson, who I had going to Buffalo in the last version at #11.
29. New York Giants- Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers: The G-Men cut Plax, meaning that their receiving corps consists of Steve Smith, Amani Toomer, Mario Mannigham, and Domenik Hixon, and we all saw how that went against Philly in the divisional round last year. Britt is a playmaking receiver. The knock on him is his character, so it remains to be seen if that is going to keep him out of the first round. If it does, I like Percy Harvin here instead.
30. Tennessee- Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois: Again, another guy with the whole "character issue" thing going against him. However, if the Titans do take a risk, they are getting a top-15 talent at the end of the first round. The Titans have really been able to build up a nice secondary through the draft, and this would be another piece that could put them even closer to contending for the AFC crown.
31. Arizona- Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut: I think Brown sneaks into the first round because of the on-going saga going on in Arizona with Edge and the ineffectiveness of Tim Hightower. They definitely have other needs, but the running game, which was surprisingly effective in the Super Bowl run last year, still needs a boost.
32. Pittsburgh- Alex Mack, C, California: No matter what spot on the line the Steelers choose to fill here, I think it's safe to say that the Steelers almost have to go with an offensive lineman here. Pittsburgh was lucky Santonio Holmes has a long reach, otherwise, the talk would have been about the O-Line getting run over throughout the playoffs.
So, there is version number three. I will come as close to a 100% guarantee as I can in saying that there will be at least one more version up before Saturday. That's all for now. I hope all the kids out there have a good April Vacation, and also, an early happy Patriots' Day to everyone out there. This year, Patriots' Day falls on April 20th...Marathon Day, 11:00 Sox game, Celts and Bruins that night...4/20...imagine the possibilities. Anyway, take care everyone. Peace.
~Mell-o
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Thursday, April 16, 2009
NBA Playoff Predictions: Round One
"Nobody writes them like they used to
So it may as well be me."
Alright, the seeds are set, and it's on to some NBA talk. Anyone who doesn't think April is the best sports month of the year is crazy. I've done an NHL and NBA playoff preview in back-to-back days. It doesn't get much better than that. So, here are my thoughts on the first round (season series in parentheses):
Eastern Conference
(1) Cleveland vs. (8) Detroit (CLE 3-1):
Line: CLE -4000
Detroit is the third worst offensive team in the league in terms of points per game and in threes made. The Pistons do lead the league in defending the three. Cleveland is third in the NBA in threes made per game. The Cavs lead the league in points allowed per game and are second in defensive FG%. Anytime you are in a seven game series, and you have absolutely no favorable matchups, which is what Detroit is looking at, you basically have no chance. Not only do I think Detroit has no chance, but I will be surprised if they even win a game. Joe Dumars totally has egg on his face still from the Billups/Iverson trade debaucle. Sometimes, you really have to wonder what goes through GMs' heads when they make some of these moves. Are they really that more qualified than you or me? I'm not so sure about that.
Pick: Cleveland in 4
(2) Boston vs. (7) Chicago (BOS 2-1):
Line: BOS -600
It's bad enough that the Celts will be without KG for likely the duration of the playoffs, but now they get easily the toughest draw of all the higher seeds in the East with the Bulls. Sure, the Bulls have struggled lately, but they still have the pieces in play that could create some mismatches for the C's. I'm not so sure if you're going to get a better point guard matchup than Rondo vs. Rose. The Bulls also made out like bandits in their deal with Sacramento in mid-February, getting John Salmons and Brad Miller for Andres Nocioni, Drew Gooden, and Michael Ruffin. Miller is going to create some matchup problems for Perk down low, with his ability to hit the 12-14 foot jumpers. This is a real tough series for Boston to start off with, but I believe they will be able to survive based on the play of Leon Powe and Glen Davis. If those two play as well as they are capable of doing, then the C's should be able to win their home games, and then take one in Chicago. However, if the Bulls start dictating the tempo like they did in the last contest on St. Patty's day (which was easily the most confusing basketball game I've ever watched..."wait, I have to root against the green jerseys?...The Celtics aren't wearing green jerseys?...What the...), then the C's could be vulnerable of receiving a quick exit and not even getting close to trying to defend the title. It pains me to say that, but you never know...
Pick: Boston in 6
(3) Orlando vs. (6) Philadelphia (ORL 3-0)
Line: ORL -1000
Philly is the second worst team in three pointers made. Orlando is last in the league in free throw percentage. The Magic are second in threes made and allowed, and third in rebounds and FG% allowed. I definitely have a conspiracy theory about the Cavs blowing a game at home to Philly, thus giving Philly the six seed and the Bulls the seven seed. First of all, the Cavs were 39-1 at home this year, and they were about to break the all-time mark set by the '86 Celtics for best homecourt record. How could they lose to Philly? Simple. They wanted the Celtics to have the absolute toughest road to get to the Eastern Conference Finals where they would inevitably meet. This would explain why the line in the 3-6 game is bigger than the line in the 2-7 game, which is counter-intuitive to the entire seeding process (meaning that, all things considered, the higher the seed, the easier the first round opponent...at least in theory). In any event, this is a series like the Cavs/Pistons series in which I would be surprised if the lower-seeded team won a game. Orlando dominates the Sixers in literally every facet of the game. I guess the one concern would be the health of Lewis and Turkoglu, but even then I can't see Philly winning a game.
Pick: Orlando in 4
(4) Atlanta vs. (5) Miami (ATL 3-1)
Line: ATL -145
Miami is the third worst rebounding team in the league. Atlanta has the third worst FT%. This is going to be an interesting series because of these two totally different philosophies as to how to win a game. Atlanta uses a team dynamic built around Bibby, Horford, Johnson, and Josh Smith, whereas Miami uses the D-Wade dynamic, basically giving him the ball, and hoping for the best. What's funny is that both styles have worked this season. While it is not a winning formula to get deep in the postseason, I honestly think that Wade will be enough for the Heat to sneak out a win in Atlanta in the first two games, and then be able to sweep the Hawks at home. Atlanta was great at home last year in the playoffs, but these are different circumstances. The Hawks were playing last postseason in an attempt to prove that they were legit, going seven games with the best team in the NBA. Now, I think they will sleep on Miami, and the Heat will be able to win this in six.
Pick: Miami in 6
Western Conference
(1) Los Angeles vs. (8) Utah (LAL 2-1)
Line: LAL -2500
Utah is third in the league in FG%. The Lakers led the league in rebounding and were the third in scoring. Of course it is a foregone conclusion that the Lakers will reach the NBA Finals. In fact, this is probably the first time since the Bird/Magic days where there were two teams that literally everyone has making the finals, and not only that, but no one had any conceivable way that it would not happen. The Cavs were benfeciaries of the KG injury, and the Lakers got the word about Manu Ginobili weeks ago. Utah is a team that can basically be characterized as "not looking right." You hear this about almost every guy on that team. Carlos Boozer "doesn't look right," Andrei Kirilenko "doesn't look right," and so on and so on.
Pick: Los Angeles in 4
(2) Denver vs. (7) New Orleans (Tied 2-2)
Line: DEN -225
Denver has the sixth best scoring offense. New Orleans has the fifth best overall defense. This series really comes down to the health of Tyson Chandler. If the Hornets can get Chandler at even 80%, then the Nuggets really don't have much of a chance. The Nuggets' best thing going for them is Chauncey Billups, who will likely be neutralized by Chris Paul. 'Melo's my man, but up to this point, he has not been able to really take over a game like he probably should (I realize Sports Guy already set that precedent up, but it is true, so sorry for the repeat). I think the Hornets have a real good shot of making a run due to the "Power of 3" theory. With Paul, Chandler, and David West, the Hornets are the sleepers of the NBA Playoffs this year. Also, did I mention a certain James Posey plays for them?
Pick: New Orleans in 6
(3) San Antonio vs. (6) Dallas (Tied 2-2)
Line: SA -145
Dallas is second in the league in FT% and second in defensive FT%. San Antonio was second in the league in scoring defense and in the threes allowed. I have to say that I absolutely hate the Spurs in the playoffs this year. They are old, and they are incredibly banged up. Meanwhile, I like Dallas for two reasons: 1) They have Jason Kidd, who is perhaps the most underrated guard of the last twenty years, and yes, I'm dead serious about that, and 2) Kidd's backup, Jose Juan Barea, the pride of Northeastern, is this year's X-Factor of the playoffs. When he gets going, the Mavs are an unstoppable force. With Barea and Terry coming off the bench, the Spurs simply don't have the kind of manpower to keep up with the Mavs over a seven-game series.
Pick: Dallas in 6
(4) Portland vs. (5) Houston (HOU 2-1)
Line: POR -140
Houston leads the league in FT% allowed. Portland allows the highest FT% in the league, but also leads the NBA in rebounds per game. This is easily the most intriguing series in the entire first round. To sum up the utter lunacy of the West, we're looking at a 4-5 matchup that features two teams with 53 and 54 wins a piece. Simply amazing. Portland obviously gets the edge in athleticism with Roy, Aldridge, Outlaw, and Fernandez, while Houston has the edge in defense with Artest, Battier, and Yao. My two biggest keys are the guard play by Houston, and Greg Oden for Portland. The Rockets traded "Skip To My Lou" to Orlando in a deadline deal for Kyle Lowry, meaning Aaron Brooks had to step up and play the point. While on paper it appears like that would be a giant leap, his minutes only when up by an average of five minutes a game after the trade, so it's not as though Brooks needed a ton of adjusting to move into the starting spot. Brooks will combine with Lowry and Artest in the backcourt. Greg Oden could be the story of the playoffs (outside of the Cleveland/LA overtones). If he plays to his potential, the Blazers could win this series, then move onto the Lakers and maybe scare them a little bit. However, if Oden cannot adjust to the pace of the playoffs, then Portland will be in big trouble. I'm banking on the latter for Oden.
Pick: Houston in 6
So, we are now up to speed on the NHL and the NBA. I wish I could have gone a little more in-depth on these, but time is actually tight now, which is definitely a good thing. Don't get me wrong, I love having free time, but there's a fine line between free time and being a bum, and I was riding dangerously close to slipping into the bum category, but now I think I have rebounded back into normalcy. So, hope you enjoy your weekend. Take care. Peace.
~Mell-o
So it may as well be me."
Alright, the seeds are set, and it's on to some NBA talk. Anyone who doesn't think April is the best sports month of the year is crazy. I've done an NHL and NBA playoff preview in back-to-back days. It doesn't get much better than that. So, here are my thoughts on the first round (season series in parentheses):
Eastern Conference
(1) Cleveland vs. (8) Detroit (CLE 3-1):
Line: CLE -4000
Detroit is the third worst offensive team in the league in terms of points per game and in threes made. The Pistons do lead the league in defending the three. Cleveland is third in the NBA in threes made per game. The Cavs lead the league in points allowed per game and are second in defensive FG%. Anytime you are in a seven game series, and you have absolutely no favorable matchups, which is what Detroit is looking at, you basically have no chance. Not only do I think Detroit has no chance, but I will be surprised if they even win a game. Joe Dumars totally has egg on his face still from the Billups/Iverson trade debaucle. Sometimes, you really have to wonder what goes through GMs' heads when they make some of these moves. Are they really that more qualified than you or me? I'm not so sure about that.
Pick: Cleveland in 4
(2) Boston vs. (7) Chicago (BOS 2-1):
Line: BOS -600
It's bad enough that the Celts will be without KG for likely the duration of the playoffs, but now they get easily the toughest draw of all the higher seeds in the East with the Bulls. Sure, the Bulls have struggled lately, but they still have the pieces in play that could create some mismatches for the C's. I'm not so sure if you're going to get a better point guard matchup than Rondo vs. Rose. The Bulls also made out like bandits in their deal with Sacramento in mid-February, getting John Salmons and Brad Miller for Andres Nocioni, Drew Gooden, and Michael Ruffin. Miller is going to create some matchup problems for Perk down low, with his ability to hit the 12-14 foot jumpers. This is a real tough series for Boston to start off with, but I believe they will be able to survive based on the play of Leon Powe and Glen Davis. If those two play as well as they are capable of doing, then the C's should be able to win their home games, and then take one in Chicago. However, if the Bulls start dictating the tempo like they did in the last contest on St. Patty's day (which was easily the most confusing basketball game I've ever watched..."wait, I have to root against the green jerseys?...The Celtics aren't wearing green jerseys?...What the...), then the C's could be vulnerable of receiving a quick exit and not even getting close to trying to defend the title. It pains me to say that, but you never know...
Pick: Boston in 6
(3) Orlando vs. (6) Philadelphia (ORL 3-0)
Line: ORL -1000
Philly is the second worst team in three pointers made. Orlando is last in the league in free throw percentage. The Magic are second in threes made and allowed, and third in rebounds and FG% allowed. I definitely have a conspiracy theory about the Cavs blowing a game at home to Philly, thus giving Philly the six seed and the Bulls the seven seed. First of all, the Cavs were 39-1 at home this year, and they were about to break the all-time mark set by the '86 Celtics for best homecourt record. How could they lose to Philly? Simple. They wanted the Celtics to have the absolute toughest road to get to the Eastern Conference Finals where they would inevitably meet. This would explain why the line in the 3-6 game is bigger than the line in the 2-7 game, which is counter-intuitive to the entire seeding process (meaning that, all things considered, the higher the seed, the easier the first round opponent...at least in theory). In any event, this is a series like the Cavs/Pistons series in which I would be surprised if the lower-seeded team won a game. Orlando dominates the Sixers in literally every facet of the game. I guess the one concern would be the health of Lewis and Turkoglu, but even then I can't see Philly winning a game.
Pick: Orlando in 4
(4) Atlanta vs. (5) Miami (ATL 3-1)
Line: ATL -145
Miami is the third worst rebounding team in the league. Atlanta has the third worst FT%. This is going to be an interesting series because of these two totally different philosophies as to how to win a game. Atlanta uses a team dynamic built around Bibby, Horford, Johnson, and Josh Smith, whereas Miami uses the D-Wade dynamic, basically giving him the ball, and hoping for the best. What's funny is that both styles have worked this season. While it is not a winning formula to get deep in the postseason, I honestly think that Wade will be enough for the Heat to sneak out a win in Atlanta in the first two games, and then be able to sweep the Hawks at home. Atlanta was great at home last year in the playoffs, but these are different circumstances. The Hawks were playing last postseason in an attempt to prove that they were legit, going seven games with the best team in the NBA. Now, I think they will sleep on Miami, and the Heat will be able to win this in six.
Pick: Miami in 6
Western Conference
(1) Los Angeles vs. (8) Utah (LAL 2-1)
Line: LAL -2500
Utah is third in the league in FG%. The Lakers led the league in rebounding and were the third in scoring. Of course it is a foregone conclusion that the Lakers will reach the NBA Finals. In fact, this is probably the first time since the Bird/Magic days where there were two teams that literally everyone has making the finals, and not only that, but no one had any conceivable way that it would not happen. The Cavs were benfeciaries of the KG injury, and the Lakers got the word about Manu Ginobili weeks ago. Utah is a team that can basically be characterized as "not looking right." You hear this about almost every guy on that team. Carlos Boozer "doesn't look right," Andrei Kirilenko "doesn't look right," and so on and so on.
Pick: Los Angeles in 4
(2) Denver vs. (7) New Orleans (Tied 2-2)
Line: DEN -225
Denver has the sixth best scoring offense. New Orleans has the fifth best overall defense. This series really comes down to the health of Tyson Chandler. If the Hornets can get Chandler at even 80%, then the Nuggets really don't have much of a chance. The Nuggets' best thing going for them is Chauncey Billups, who will likely be neutralized by Chris Paul. 'Melo's my man, but up to this point, he has not been able to really take over a game like he probably should (I realize Sports Guy already set that precedent up, but it is true, so sorry for the repeat). I think the Hornets have a real good shot of making a run due to the "Power of 3" theory. With Paul, Chandler, and David West, the Hornets are the sleepers of the NBA Playoffs this year. Also, did I mention a certain James Posey plays for them?
Pick: New Orleans in 6
(3) San Antonio vs. (6) Dallas (Tied 2-2)
Line: SA -145
Dallas is second in the league in FT% and second in defensive FT%. San Antonio was second in the league in scoring defense and in the threes allowed. I have to say that I absolutely hate the Spurs in the playoffs this year. They are old, and they are incredibly banged up. Meanwhile, I like Dallas for two reasons: 1) They have Jason Kidd, who is perhaps the most underrated guard of the last twenty years, and yes, I'm dead serious about that, and 2) Kidd's backup, Jose Juan Barea, the pride of Northeastern, is this year's X-Factor of the playoffs. When he gets going, the Mavs are an unstoppable force. With Barea and Terry coming off the bench, the Spurs simply don't have the kind of manpower to keep up with the Mavs over a seven-game series.
Pick: Dallas in 6
(4) Portland vs. (5) Houston (HOU 2-1)
Line: POR -140
Houston leads the league in FT% allowed. Portland allows the highest FT% in the league, but also leads the NBA in rebounds per game. This is easily the most intriguing series in the entire first round. To sum up the utter lunacy of the West, we're looking at a 4-5 matchup that features two teams with 53 and 54 wins a piece. Simply amazing. Portland obviously gets the edge in athleticism with Roy, Aldridge, Outlaw, and Fernandez, while Houston has the edge in defense with Artest, Battier, and Yao. My two biggest keys are the guard play by Houston, and Greg Oden for Portland. The Rockets traded "Skip To My Lou" to Orlando in a deadline deal for Kyle Lowry, meaning Aaron Brooks had to step up and play the point. While on paper it appears like that would be a giant leap, his minutes only when up by an average of five minutes a game after the trade, so it's not as though Brooks needed a ton of adjusting to move into the starting spot. Brooks will combine with Lowry and Artest in the backcourt. Greg Oden could be the story of the playoffs (outside of the Cleveland/LA overtones). If he plays to his potential, the Blazers could win this series, then move onto the Lakers and maybe scare them a little bit. However, if Oden cannot adjust to the pace of the playoffs, then Portland will be in big trouble. I'm banking on the latter for Oden.
Pick: Houston in 6
So, we are now up to speed on the NHL and the NBA. I wish I could have gone a little more in-depth on these, but time is actually tight now, which is definitely a good thing. Don't get me wrong, I love having free time, but there's a fine line between free time and being a bum, and I was riding dangerously close to slipping into the bum category, but now I think I have rebounded back into normalcy. So, hope you enjoy your weekend. Take care. Peace.
~Mell-o
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
NHL Playoff Predictions: Round One
"This is our decision to live fast and die young.
We've got the vision, now let's have some fun."
Not only do I feel like I owe it to both you the reader and myself to do a hockey column, but I'm kind of tired looking at my NCAA final prediction...yeah that didn't really go according to plan. So, it's taken me a week to get over that, and here we are. Also, with the hockey column will come an NBA column which I will produce as soon as the final seeds are announced. So, without anymore hesitation, here are my picks for round one of the NHL playoffs (season series in parentheses).
Eastern Conference:
(1) Boston vs. (8) Montreal (BOS 5-1):
Line: BOS -380
Okay, not so many stats here. This has "coke machine" theory written all over it. I will be absolutely shocked if the B's don't win in 6 or 7. I'm not so huge on them on the road, but I don't see any way that the Habs can beat the Bruins at the Garden. This is kind of like what happened with the Celts against Atlanta and Cleveland, where it seems like they were two entirely different teams on the road vs. the home court. I know that's an NBA analogy, but you have to go with what you know right?
Pick: Boston in 7
(2) Washington vs. (7) New York Rangers (WSH 3-1):
Line: WSH -300
For the rest of the matchups, I will try to bring up some key statistics. The Rangers led the NHL in hits this year. Washington was second on the powerplay, while the Rangers were 29th out of 30. However, the Rangers were first in the NHL on the penalty kill. The Rangers were dreadful as an underdog. When you think about the Caps, you obviously think about the Ovechkin factor. Combine him with Semin, and this team is offensively lethal. The Rangers obviously are a big team, and they can play some D, which could definitely cram the Caps' style. I think the Caps pull this off for two reasons: 1) Despite the Rangers' defensive efficiency, no one can hold down the Caps on offense and 2) The NHL will do everything in its power to keep Ovechkin in the playoffs for as long as humanly possible. This kid is the NHL's calling card, and if he gets bumped in the first round, I can see the ratings plummeting.
Pick: Washington in 6
(3) New Jersey vs. (6) Carolina (CAR 3-1):
Line: NJ -135
Carolina was first in the league with 4.6 power play chances per game, while the Devils were second-to-last in the league in power play chances. Carolina is 8-2 in their last 10, while Jersey is 4-5-1 in their last ten. The Devils were red hot when Brodeur returned, but they seem to be fizzling at the wrong time. If the 'Canes can steal one of the first two in Jersey, then I don't see how the Devils can win in Raleigh.
Pick: Carolina in 6
(4) Pittsburgh vs. (5) Philadelphia (PIT 4-2):
Line: PIT -165
Philly allows the second most power plays per game in the league. The Pens are 11-4 in their last 15 against Philly. This is my style right here. An instate collision of sorts with the Pens and the Flyers. When you look at the numbers, these teams are right next to each other in virtually every statistic. Obviously, you look at Pittsburgh and you think about Malkin and Crosby. With Philly, you're probably going to notice Jeff Carter, who was second in the league in scoring. This is another instance where I think the star power has to prevail though.
Pick: Pittsburgh in 5
Western Conference
(1) San Jose vs. (8) Vancouver (SJ 4-2):
Line: SJ -280
Anaheim allows the third most power plays per game, while San Jose was seond in the league in power play goals per game, and third overall with a man-advantage. This is possibly the worst draw the Sharks could have gotten while occupying the #1 seed. The Canucks are going to be a pesky team here, as indicated by the ridiculously low line. What's interesting is that Vancouver holds the experience card in this matchup. The Sharks have not been this touted for a Cup run in franchise history. I'm not going to do it this round, but I will have the Sharks getting bounced before they reach the conference finals.
Pick: San Jose in 7
(2) Detroit vs. (7) Columbus (Tied 3-3):
Line: DET -550
Columbus is last in the league in power play goals per game, while Detroit is leading the league. Detroit allowed the second fewest shots per game. Columbus was third. This is fascinating because of how huge the line is and the fact that these teams tied the season series. This is Columbus' first ever playoff appearance. There is going to be a major upset in the first round, and this is my pick. Don't forget that just over a month ago, the Blue Jackets served up at beatdown at the Joe, 8-2. Remember this as well: Columbus has the best home-ice advantage in hockey. You heard it here.
Pick: Columbus in 6
(3) Vancouver vs. (6) St. Louis (Tied 2-2)
Line: VAN -230
St. Louis was second-to-last in the league in shots per game. The Blues were third in the league on the penalty kill. Vancouver ranks seventh overall in total defense. This is another series in which I'm thinking the favorite is going to get way more than they can handle. St. Louis has a tremendous mark against teams in the West (20-8-4), and have won five of their last seven on the road. However, the Blues have struggled with the Canucks, going 2-5 in their last seven and 1-5 on the road against Vancouver. Still, the Blues split the series this year, which is convincing enough for me.
Pick: St. Louis in 6
(4) Chicago vs. (5) Calgary (CHI 4-0)
Line: CHI -155
Chicago had the third most power play chances per game. Calgary is ninth in overall scoring. Another thing of note: I love Chicago! I've never actually been to the town (I hear it's lovely, and Ferris Beuller and the Blues Brothers were both good movies based in Chicago), but their hockey team is probably in my "pseudo-like" teams. Of course I have my allegiance to the Boston teams, but in each league, there's always another team that I quietly pull for. Here's the list:
Pick: Chicago in 4
So, not a lot there I know. I'm not going to lie, I don't have as much knowledge about the NHL as I do about most other sports, and what I do know is basically all about the Bruins. Still, I love the NHL playoffs because virtually every game goes down to the wire, and already in the first round, you have a few rivalries (Boston/Montreal, Philly/Pittsburgh) being hatched. Also, it helps that the B's are poised to make a deep run, which doesn't happen very often around here (last Stanley Cup: 1972, last Stanley Cup finals: 1990). Again, the NBA playoff preview will be up soon, and I'm cramming for the NFL Draft, which is in a week and a half! So, plenty more to come. Definitely check out the NHL playoffs though (the highlights are on Hulu, so you don't have any excuses), and I will see everyone later. Peace.
~Mell-o
We've got the vision, now let's have some fun."
Not only do I feel like I owe it to both you the reader and myself to do a hockey column, but I'm kind of tired looking at my NCAA final prediction...yeah that didn't really go according to plan. So, it's taken me a week to get over that, and here we are. Also, with the hockey column will come an NBA column which I will produce as soon as the final seeds are announced. So, without anymore hesitation, here are my picks for round one of the NHL playoffs (season series in parentheses).
Eastern Conference:
(1) Boston vs. (8) Montreal (BOS 5-1):
Line: BOS -380
Okay, not so many stats here. This has "coke machine" theory written all over it. I will be absolutely shocked if the B's don't win in 6 or 7. I'm not so huge on them on the road, but I don't see any way that the Habs can beat the Bruins at the Garden. This is kind of like what happened with the Celts against Atlanta and Cleveland, where it seems like they were two entirely different teams on the road vs. the home court. I know that's an NBA analogy, but you have to go with what you know right?
Pick: Boston in 7
(2) Washington vs. (7) New York Rangers (WSH 3-1):
Line: WSH -300
For the rest of the matchups, I will try to bring up some key statistics. The Rangers led the NHL in hits this year. Washington was second on the powerplay, while the Rangers were 29th out of 30. However, the Rangers were first in the NHL on the penalty kill. The Rangers were dreadful as an underdog. When you think about the Caps, you obviously think about the Ovechkin factor. Combine him with Semin, and this team is offensively lethal. The Rangers obviously are a big team, and they can play some D, which could definitely cram the Caps' style. I think the Caps pull this off for two reasons: 1) Despite the Rangers' defensive efficiency, no one can hold down the Caps on offense and 2) The NHL will do everything in its power to keep Ovechkin in the playoffs for as long as humanly possible. This kid is the NHL's calling card, and if he gets bumped in the first round, I can see the ratings plummeting.
Pick: Washington in 6
(3) New Jersey vs. (6) Carolina (CAR 3-1):
Line: NJ -135
Carolina was first in the league with 4.6 power play chances per game, while the Devils were second-to-last in the league in power play chances. Carolina is 8-2 in their last 10, while Jersey is 4-5-1 in their last ten. The Devils were red hot when Brodeur returned, but they seem to be fizzling at the wrong time. If the 'Canes can steal one of the first two in Jersey, then I don't see how the Devils can win in Raleigh.
Pick: Carolina in 6
(4) Pittsburgh vs. (5) Philadelphia (PIT 4-2):
Line: PIT -165
Philly allows the second most power plays per game in the league. The Pens are 11-4 in their last 15 against Philly. This is my style right here. An instate collision of sorts with the Pens and the Flyers. When you look at the numbers, these teams are right next to each other in virtually every statistic. Obviously, you look at Pittsburgh and you think about Malkin and Crosby. With Philly, you're probably going to notice Jeff Carter, who was second in the league in scoring. This is another instance where I think the star power has to prevail though.
Pick: Pittsburgh in 5
Western Conference
(1) San Jose vs. (8) Vancouver (SJ 4-2):
Line: SJ -280
Anaheim allows the third most power plays per game, while San Jose was seond in the league in power play goals per game, and third overall with a man-advantage. This is possibly the worst draw the Sharks could have gotten while occupying the #1 seed. The Canucks are going to be a pesky team here, as indicated by the ridiculously low line. What's interesting is that Vancouver holds the experience card in this matchup. The Sharks have not been this touted for a Cup run in franchise history. I'm not going to do it this round, but I will have the Sharks getting bounced before they reach the conference finals.
Pick: San Jose in 7
(2) Detroit vs. (7) Columbus (Tied 3-3):
Line: DET -550
Columbus is last in the league in power play goals per game, while Detroit is leading the league. Detroit allowed the second fewest shots per game. Columbus was third. This is fascinating because of how huge the line is and the fact that these teams tied the season series. This is Columbus' first ever playoff appearance. There is going to be a major upset in the first round, and this is my pick. Don't forget that just over a month ago, the Blue Jackets served up at beatdown at the Joe, 8-2. Remember this as well: Columbus has the best home-ice advantage in hockey. You heard it here.
Pick: Columbus in 6
(3) Vancouver vs. (6) St. Louis (Tied 2-2)
Line: VAN -230
St. Louis was second-to-last in the league in shots per game. The Blues were third in the league on the penalty kill. Vancouver ranks seventh overall in total defense. This is another series in which I'm thinking the favorite is going to get way more than they can handle. St. Louis has a tremendous mark against teams in the West (20-8-4), and have won five of their last seven on the road. However, the Blues have struggled with the Canucks, going 2-5 in their last seven and 1-5 on the road against Vancouver. Still, the Blues split the series this year, which is convincing enough for me.
Pick: St. Louis in 6
(4) Chicago vs. (5) Calgary (CHI 4-0)
Line: CHI -155
Chicago had the third most power play chances per game. Calgary is ninth in overall scoring. Another thing of note: I love Chicago! I've never actually been to the town (I hear it's lovely, and Ferris Beuller and the Blues Brothers were both good movies based in Chicago), but their hockey team is probably in my "pseudo-like" teams. Of course I have my allegiance to the Boston teams, but in each league, there's always another team that I quietly pull for. Here's the list:
- MLB: Red Sox; P-L: Royals
- NFL: Patriots; P-L: Redskins
- NBA: Celtics; P-L: Trailblazers
- NHL: Bruins; P-L: Blackhawks
Pick: Chicago in 4
So, not a lot there I know. I'm not going to lie, I don't have as much knowledge about the NHL as I do about most other sports, and what I do know is basically all about the Bruins. Still, I love the NHL playoffs because virtually every game goes down to the wire, and already in the first round, you have a few rivalries (Boston/Montreal, Philly/Pittsburgh) being hatched. Also, it helps that the B's are poised to make a deep run, which doesn't happen very often around here (last Stanley Cup: 1972, last Stanley Cup finals: 1990). Again, the NBA playoff preview will be up soon, and I'm cramming for the NFL Draft, which is in a week and a half! So, plenty more to come. Definitely check out the NHL playoffs though (the highlights are on Hulu, so you don't have any excuses), and I will see everyone later. Peace.
~Mell-o
Monday, April 06, 2009
Bracket Breakdown: National Championship
"And I think I'm gonna stick around for awhile so you're not alone."
I had to go with a Detroit band for this one (that was the White Stripes in case you were curious). Well, this is it...it really is it for me because the Sox got rained out today (make-up for 4:00 tomorrow). I think it's quite amazing that after the first round, I lost twice the rest of the way. No, this was not my original bracket, but in my round-for-round picks, after round one, I went 28-2. So, I'm pretty stoked about that. Of course all this is meaningless if I don't get tonight's game right. So, with out further ado, here is the final game of the 2008-2009 college basketball season:
9:21: (1) North Carolina vs. (2) Michigan State; Detroit, MI:
If you're Michigan State, it literally will not get any better than this. The crowd on Saturday night was off the charts, and they willed the Spartans to have a rather comfortable win over UConn. I'm really happy the Michigan faithful were able to make it out and support their team. If you thought Saturday was a good showing, wait until tonight. State is attempting to avenge a 35-point loss they had earlier this year to UNC at Ford Field. However, this will be an entirely different game than the one that was played in early December. First, the attendance factor will be in full effect tonight. The first game drew less than 30,000...needless to say, I'm expecting something in the vacinity of 65,000-70,000 tonight. Second, UNC was playing at full strength while State was playing without Suton, who has been a huge contributor in the Spartans' run through the tournament. Third, UNC was rolling on a river, much like they are right now, back in the first game. They were unbeaten, ranked #1 in the country, and just got back Tyler Hansbrough. Meanwhile, State had just got shalacked by Maryland in their previous game, and were obviously reeling from that upset when they took on the Heels.
I know that a lot of what I just said could be viewed as making excuses as to why State got obliterated in the first game, but the fact remains that the two games that will be played against these schools could not be any different. In fact, the only thing that remains the same is where the game was played. Other than that, everything is different.
Okay, so, when picking this game, you obviously have two options, and two pretty compelling reasons to side with either team. First, with State, you are looking at a "team of destiny." They have the homecourt, they have the aura, if you will, of an entire state (minus a few Wolverine fans who are justifiably stubborn) who has put their collective weight behind this team, and they also have something that the Tar Heels cannot boast...a win over not one, but two #1 teams in a row.
With North Carolina, you are looking at a team that could potentiall produce up to four first-round picks in this year's draft. This team stayed together to achieve the ultimate goal of winning a national championship, which is something that Hansbrough and Co. have been projected to do for the last three years, and yet have come up short of the ultimate goal. So, you definitely have a "Coke Machine" theory in place here. Still, maybe it was "Coke Machine" to just get into the finals, and not to actually win the whole thing.
Ultimately, it will come down to how much the Tar Heels can control the tempo versus how physical Michigan State can play UNC not only down low, but also on the perimeter. I was laughing out loud when a sports radio "analyst" was talking about how Michigan State needs to run up and down the floor in order to win. I will say this right now. If this game becomes a track meet, the Spartans are screwed. They have a few guys, most notably Raymar Morgan, who may be able to play at that speed, but when you look at the Heels, their team is basically built to be a run-and-gun team. What's funny is that State actually tried the run-and-gun approach against the Heels the first time around, and we all know how that ended up. True, they were playing without Suton, but still, did their entire philosophy change because their big man was out? Obviously Suton is a great player, but he's not like Hansbrough or Blake Griffin where the offense has to completely retool in their absences.
To me, I just cannot see the Heels winning this game. This is almost at a USA/USSR level without the political implications. Obviously State has a rich tradition in basketball, but it's not nearly as lengthy as the one coming from Tobacco Road. State has the underdog factor, the revenge factor, the "no one believed in us" factor, the homecourt factor, the momentum factor (shared equally with UNC)...I just can't see the Heels cutting down the nets in Detroit. If they are able to pull off a W tonight, I will seriously consider it an upset despite the fact that UNC was a one and State was a two. The spread is at eight right now...I'm really not seeing that.
A blow-by-blow:
Enjoy the game tonight. No matter who wins, it will likely be a classic. Take care. Go Sox! Peace.
~Mell-o
I had to go with a Detroit band for this one (that was the White Stripes in case you were curious). Well, this is it...it really is it for me because the Sox got rained out today (make-up for 4:00 tomorrow). I think it's quite amazing that after the first round, I lost twice the rest of the way. No, this was not my original bracket, but in my round-for-round picks, after round one, I went 28-2. So, I'm pretty stoked about that. Of course all this is meaningless if I don't get tonight's game right. So, with out further ado, here is the final game of the 2008-2009 college basketball season:
9:21: (1) North Carolina vs. (2) Michigan State; Detroit, MI:
If you're Michigan State, it literally will not get any better than this. The crowd on Saturday night was off the charts, and they willed the Spartans to have a rather comfortable win over UConn. I'm really happy the Michigan faithful were able to make it out and support their team. If you thought Saturday was a good showing, wait until tonight. State is attempting to avenge a 35-point loss they had earlier this year to UNC at Ford Field. However, this will be an entirely different game than the one that was played in early December. First, the attendance factor will be in full effect tonight. The first game drew less than 30,000...needless to say, I'm expecting something in the vacinity of 65,000-70,000 tonight. Second, UNC was playing at full strength while State was playing without Suton, who has been a huge contributor in the Spartans' run through the tournament. Third, UNC was rolling on a river, much like they are right now, back in the first game. They were unbeaten, ranked #1 in the country, and just got back Tyler Hansbrough. Meanwhile, State had just got shalacked by Maryland in their previous game, and were obviously reeling from that upset when they took on the Heels.
I know that a lot of what I just said could be viewed as making excuses as to why State got obliterated in the first game, but the fact remains that the two games that will be played against these schools could not be any different. In fact, the only thing that remains the same is where the game was played. Other than that, everything is different.
Okay, so, when picking this game, you obviously have two options, and two pretty compelling reasons to side with either team. First, with State, you are looking at a "team of destiny." They have the homecourt, they have the aura, if you will, of an entire state (minus a few Wolverine fans who are justifiably stubborn) who has put their collective weight behind this team, and they also have something that the Tar Heels cannot boast...a win over not one, but two #1 teams in a row.
With North Carolina, you are looking at a team that could potentiall produce up to four first-round picks in this year's draft. This team stayed together to achieve the ultimate goal of winning a national championship, which is something that Hansbrough and Co. have been projected to do for the last three years, and yet have come up short of the ultimate goal. So, you definitely have a "Coke Machine" theory in place here. Still, maybe it was "Coke Machine" to just get into the finals, and not to actually win the whole thing.
Ultimately, it will come down to how much the Tar Heels can control the tempo versus how physical Michigan State can play UNC not only down low, but also on the perimeter. I was laughing out loud when a sports radio "analyst" was talking about how Michigan State needs to run up and down the floor in order to win. I will say this right now. If this game becomes a track meet, the Spartans are screwed. They have a few guys, most notably Raymar Morgan, who may be able to play at that speed, but when you look at the Heels, their team is basically built to be a run-and-gun team. What's funny is that State actually tried the run-and-gun approach against the Heels the first time around, and we all know how that ended up. True, they were playing without Suton, but still, did their entire philosophy change because their big man was out? Obviously Suton is a great player, but he's not like Hansbrough or Blake Griffin where the offense has to completely retool in their absences.
To me, I just cannot see the Heels winning this game. This is almost at a USA/USSR level without the political implications. Obviously State has a rich tradition in basketball, but it's not nearly as lengthy as the one coming from Tobacco Road. State has the underdog factor, the revenge factor, the "no one believed in us" factor, the homecourt factor, the momentum factor (shared equally with UNC)...I just can't see the Heels cutting down the nets in Detroit. If they are able to pull off a W tonight, I will seriously consider it an upset despite the fact that UNC was a one and State was a two. The spread is at eight right now...I'm really not seeing that.
A blow-by-blow:
- First Ten Minutes: State obviously comes out on fire, and they take an early lead. The momentum will stall out at around the five-minute mark, and the Heels will sneak back into the lead after going on a 7 or 8-0 run at around the twelve minute mark.
- Second Ten Minutes: Both teams will be going back and forth, much like a heavyweight bout, which it is. The Spartans will be able to edge UNC just enough to take a lead going into the break.
- First Ten Minutes (Second Half): Roy Williams, going into the locker room down, knows that if his team doesn't come out in the second half and gain the momentum, then there is no turning back. The Heels once again go on a nice little run to push their lead to five or six. However, they will be getting into foul trouble the entire time due to their aggressiveness at the defensive end.
- Final Ten Minutes: The foul trouble eventually catches up with the Heels, and so don't the fans. Due to a series of UNC fouls/turnovers, State will be able to not only catch up on the scoreboard, but the fans will get right back into the game. State will roar back into the lead with about four minutes left. It is at this point when the Heels will almost feel helpless, and we've all had those games. You are pulling for a team, they're out front, and then all of a sudden, something happens, and it feels like a punch to the stomach that you know there is probably no recovery from. This will come in the form of Hansbrough fouling out of his final collegiate game. This, to me, seems like an inevitability. He has waited and waited for this moment, and while I think he will have a big game, he will be too fired up, and he will start making some mental mistakes that puts him and his team in trouble. When Hansbrough fouls out, it's over. For some reason, I think a collective calm will come over the Spartans. They will come to realize that there is much more pressure on the Heels to win this tournament. Win or lose, the entire team will likely be dismantled after this season, so this is the last shot for pretty much all of the UNC starters. Plus, if you tell me that I have a choice between Tom Izzo and Roy Williams to coach the last five minutes of a game, I take Izzo every time. To me, he is probably the best coach in all the land. No one brings more to the table in big games than Izzo. Others may have more championships, but I still take Izzo and his five Final Four appearances. So, I'm going with the home team in the away jerseys tonight.
Enjoy the game tonight. No matter who wins, it will likely be a classic. Take care. Go Sox! Peace.
~Mell-o
Thursday, April 02, 2009
Bracket Breakdown: Final Four
"And just to think it all began on an uneventful morn'."
So we are now down to the nitty gritty...the Final Four. Well, my bracket as been completely destroyed, so I really have no rooting interest as far as that is concerned. However, there's definitely going to be two teams that I will be pulling for this weekend (hint: they aren't #1 seeds). Still though, I will at least attempt to give you an nonobjective look into the matchups this weekend.
Saturday, April 4, Detroit, MI:
6:07: (1) Connecticut vs. (2) Michigan State:
Well, there were very few things that I got right this year, but my proclamation that the Spartans would be able to get through the Midwest bracket (i.e. Big 10 country) and make it back home to Detroit was one of my better ones. The Spartans were absolutely dominant against the Cards in the Elite Eight in Indy, and they were able to shut down a team that scored over 100 the round before to 51 points. I'm telling you right now, this is one of those great moments in big-time basketball that my head and my heart are in line with each other. First of all, I do not like UConn whatsoever, and I'm fully aware of how impressive they have been so far in the tournament, and quite frankly, none of that has any effect on me. Also, this is not because of Jim Calhoun, or the recruiting charges, or anything like that. Rather, it has to do with the fact that I forsee the Huskies getting into major foul trouble early on. I have made it clear about my total distaste of Thabeet's game, and I really think that it is all going to fall like a house of cards in this game. State doesn't have as much size as UConn, but they are tenatious enough that even if they fall behind, they have the weapons to get themselves back into it. Okay, and now it is at this point that I have to make a semi-public service announcement...
People Of Michigan:
You have been granted a gift that very rarely comes along. A team from your home state is in the Final Four, which is being held in...your state as well. I understand that the state has been going through a tough time. The motor vehicle industry is falling apart, which happens to be the #1 employer in Michigan. Times are tight right now...I understand. With all that being said, I command you to do anything you possibly can to get to Ford Field this weekend. I cannot even stress how rare of an occasion this is (the last time a team got to the Final Four that was being played in the same state as their campus was 1994 when Duke played at the Charlotte Coliseum). So, I'm begging you, as a pro-Michigan guy and someone who is crazy about upsets, please get out and support your team. This is a team you can rally around. Thank you, and God Bless states that have more than one land mass in them (let's think about this...Michigan, Massachusetts, Hawaii, Florida...they all kick ass...it's not a coincidence I don't think)
Sidenote: When I was watching the Michigan State/Louisville game, they kept flashing to Magic Johnson, which really started getting confusing...because I would see Tom Izzo, and thought "this is what I love about this team," then I saw Magic, and I thought "this is what I hate about this team," and it kept going on and on for the entire game to the point where it started becoming like a slapping match between a good-guy wrestler and a bad-guy wrestler..."yeeeaaaahhhh!"..."booooooooo!"..."yeeeaaaahhhh!"...it was all very much a mind-f.
Original Pick: Memphis, Present Pick: Michigan State
8:47: (1) North Carolina vs. (3) Villanova:
If I have learned anything, and apparently I still haven't quite learned this entirely yet, it's that, at least for this year, you cannot go against Obama...you just can't do it. I mean really, on just about any topic he talks about, going up against him is kind of like spitting in the wind at this point. So, with that being said, he only got one of his Final Four teams correct...and it happens to be the team he has winning it all, which is UNC. Look, I'm pulling for 'Nova strictly because they are the lower-ranked team in the equation, they're a Big East school, and I'm a big Jay Wright guy. However, right now, North Carolina just has too much. They rolled Oklahoma, and they're no slouch. Meanwhile, 'Nova was able to miraculously run their last play uncontested up the court to win at the last second. Some teams are lucky, and they can continue to rely on their luck to get through these tough games, but I think 'Nova has hit their luck quota, and despite how impressive they looked against Pitt, UNC is just going to be an absolute handful this year. Also, consider who plays for the Tar Heels. Isn't there entire team headed to the draft next year? Remember when they won back in '05, and afterwards, everyone just peaced and hit the first round? I'm expecting kind of the same thing happening with this team this year.
Original Pick: Pittsburgh, Present Pick: North Carolina
I know that this has absolutely nothing to do with the tournament, but I do have to throw my two cents in on the Jay Cutler trade to Chicago that happened today. First, if you're Chicago or a Bears fan, you have to be loving this move. I know it's a steep price to pay for one guy (two first rounders and a third), but Cutler is the goods, and the Bears have been looking for a franchise QB basically since I've been alive. The fact that they finally pulled the trigger has to show the fans that this team believes that it can contend for a division title right now. I have to come back to that price tag though...wasn't the proposed deal with Tampa a first and a third? The Bears gave up two ones, a third, and Kyle Orton. Plus, considering Denver was openly shopping Cutler, and knowing how explosive the Cutler-Denver situation was, is there a chance the Bears may have overpaid here? Well...maybe, but the fact that the Bears have a top-10 QB now is just going to help them. The Bears are built to throw the ball down the field already with Rashied Davis and Devin Hester, and they are likely going to add another receiver in the draft. So, I think this is a good move for Chicago, especially if they get Cutler some help.
When I look at the trade from Denver's perspective, I think that they got very good value for Cutler considering the Pats only got the #34 for Cassel. Still though, what is Denver going to do now? Are they all of a sudden in the Mark Sanchez market assuming Stafford is off the board to Detroit at #1? If the Broncos go into the season with Kyle Orton as their #1, they are in big, big trouble. Orton is not a horrible QB, but you have to wonder how he's going to fit in Denver's system. Furthermore, how is Denver going to make the McDaniels short-pass, quick-decision type offense work with the parts they have? This is another team that is obviously built on throwing the ball deep, as was evident by Cutler's gaudy numbers. It's going to be interesting to see how Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal adjust to the new gameplan. In getting back to the positives, the Broncos now situate themselves beautifully with two picks in the top 20, and another first rounder (which at the minimum will be around the 23-25 range) next year. So, I think there were pros and cons for both teams here, which is how a good compromise should go ("have you heard of Henry Clay?"). I am much more interested in Denver now though. With 4,526 yards last year (17th all-time for a season), this is the most yards a QB has thrown for who has been traded the following year. Now they really have no QB, they have a new system, everyone in Denver is going nuts on McDaniels because they all like Cutler...this is all very fascinating. They have almost supplanted the Pats in terms of teams peaking my interest going into the draft.
Speaking of the draft (which is three weeks away...three weeks away!), kind of a troubling story came out today about B.J. Raji, who reportedly failed his combine drug test. The drug was not specified, but I mean...come on man. I'm going to go out on a limb and say it was not of the performance-enhancing variety (which could only mean one thing...wait, what was I talking about?). This is disappointing as a BC supporter because Raji was skyrocketing up draft boards, and some had him as high as going to the Rams at #2. Now, this may drop him out of the top 10 much like Andre Smith's recent theatrics did him in. My hope is that this report is either not true, or it was just pot and not steroids or anything like that. I think this is great that sports is at the point where I'm like "man, I hope he was just smoking weed." That's just priceless.
Alright, back to the kitchen for work tomorrow. I actually had this job three years ago, but I don't believe this any kind of "walk of shame" because a.) they wanted me back, b.) it pays pretty well, and c.) I had an amazing time the first time around, so I'm hopeful that things stay the same (none of the waitresses are there from before...hopefully the new crop is decent because those girls were way...everything (nice/cute/happy/into shift drinks)). So, this may cut down on the amount of time I have to talk to you guys, and it may mean that I don't do a Draft Day Diary, which I've been wanting to do since the last one back in '07, but I keep having to work on Draft Day. By the way, is this a sign of maturity that I can work on Draft Day without totally flipping out? I mean I'm probably not going to be able to get any work done, but isn't it the thought that counts there? Anyway, hope you are well out there. Have a great weekend. Peace.
~Mell-o
So we are now down to the nitty gritty...the Final Four. Well, my bracket as been completely destroyed, so I really have no rooting interest as far as that is concerned. However, there's definitely going to be two teams that I will be pulling for this weekend (hint: they aren't #1 seeds). Still though, I will at least attempt to give you an nonobjective look into the matchups this weekend.
Saturday, April 4, Detroit, MI:
6:07: (1) Connecticut vs. (2) Michigan State:
Well, there were very few things that I got right this year, but my proclamation that the Spartans would be able to get through the Midwest bracket (i.e. Big 10 country) and make it back home to Detroit was one of my better ones. The Spartans were absolutely dominant against the Cards in the Elite Eight in Indy, and they were able to shut down a team that scored over 100 the round before to 51 points. I'm telling you right now, this is one of those great moments in big-time basketball that my head and my heart are in line with each other. First of all, I do not like UConn whatsoever, and I'm fully aware of how impressive they have been so far in the tournament, and quite frankly, none of that has any effect on me. Also, this is not because of Jim Calhoun, or the recruiting charges, or anything like that. Rather, it has to do with the fact that I forsee the Huskies getting into major foul trouble early on. I have made it clear about my total distaste of Thabeet's game, and I really think that it is all going to fall like a house of cards in this game. State doesn't have as much size as UConn, but they are tenatious enough that even if they fall behind, they have the weapons to get themselves back into it. Okay, and now it is at this point that I have to make a semi-public service announcement...
People Of Michigan:
You have been granted a gift that very rarely comes along. A team from your home state is in the Final Four, which is being held in...your state as well. I understand that the state has been going through a tough time. The motor vehicle industry is falling apart, which happens to be the #1 employer in Michigan. Times are tight right now...I understand. With all that being said, I command you to do anything you possibly can to get to Ford Field this weekend. I cannot even stress how rare of an occasion this is (the last time a team got to the Final Four that was being played in the same state as their campus was 1994 when Duke played at the Charlotte Coliseum). So, I'm begging you, as a pro-Michigan guy and someone who is crazy about upsets, please get out and support your team. This is a team you can rally around. Thank you, and God Bless states that have more than one land mass in them (let's think about this...Michigan, Massachusetts, Hawaii, Florida...they all kick ass...it's not a coincidence I don't think)
Sidenote: When I was watching the Michigan State/Louisville game, they kept flashing to Magic Johnson, which really started getting confusing...because I would see Tom Izzo, and thought "this is what I love about this team," then I saw Magic, and I thought "this is what I hate about this team," and it kept going on and on for the entire game to the point where it started becoming like a slapping match between a good-guy wrestler and a bad-guy wrestler..."yeeeaaaahhhh!"..."booooooooo!"..."yeeeaaaahhhh!"...it was all very much a mind-f.
Original Pick: Memphis, Present Pick: Michigan State
8:47: (1) North Carolina vs. (3) Villanova:
If I have learned anything, and apparently I still haven't quite learned this entirely yet, it's that, at least for this year, you cannot go against Obama...you just can't do it. I mean really, on just about any topic he talks about, going up against him is kind of like spitting in the wind at this point. So, with that being said, he only got one of his Final Four teams correct...and it happens to be the team he has winning it all, which is UNC. Look, I'm pulling for 'Nova strictly because they are the lower-ranked team in the equation, they're a Big East school, and I'm a big Jay Wright guy. However, right now, North Carolina just has too much. They rolled Oklahoma, and they're no slouch. Meanwhile, 'Nova was able to miraculously run their last play uncontested up the court to win at the last second. Some teams are lucky, and they can continue to rely on their luck to get through these tough games, but I think 'Nova has hit their luck quota, and despite how impressive they looked against Pitt, UNC is just going to be an absolute handful this year. Also, consider who plays for the Tar Heels. Isn't there entire team headed to the draft next year? Remember when they won back in '05, and afterwards, everyone just peaced and hit the first round? I'm expecting kind of the same thing happening with this team this year.
Original Pick: Pittsburgh, Present Pick: North Carolina
I know that this has absolutely nothing to do with the tournament, but I do have to throw my two cents in on the Jay Cutler trade to Chicago that happened today. First, if you're Chicago or a Bears fan, you have to be loving this move. I know it's a steep price to pay for one guy (two first rounders and a third), but Cutler is the goods, and the Bears have been looking for a franchise QB basically since I've been alive. The fact that they finally pulled the trigger has to show the fans that this team believes that it can contend for a division title right now. I have to come back to that price tag though...wasn't the proposed deal with Tampa a first and a third? The Bears gave up two ones, a third, and Kyle Orton. Plus, considering Denver was openly shopping Cutler, and knowing how explosive the Cutler-Denver situation was, is there a chance the Bears may have overpaid here? Well...maybe, but the fact that the Bears have a top-10 QB now is just going to help them. The Bears are built to throw the ball down the field already with Rashied Davis and Devin Hester, and they are likely going to add another receiver in the draft. So, I think this is a good move for Chicago, especially if they get Cutler some help.
When I look at the trade from Denver's perspective, I think that they got very good value for Cutler considering the Pats only got the #34 for Cassel. Still though, what is Denver going to do now? Are they all of a sudden in the Mark Sanchez market assuming Stafford is off the board to Detroit at #1? If the Broncos go into the season with Kyle Orton as their #1, they are in big, big trouble. Orton is not a horrible QB, but you have to wonder how he's going to fit in Denver's system. Furthermore, how is Denver going to make the McDaniels short-pass, quick-decision type offense work with the parts they have? This is another team that is obviously built on throwing the ball deep, as was evident by Cutler's gaudy numbers. It's going to be interesting to see how Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal adjust to the new gameplan. In getting back to the positives, the Broncos now situate themselves beautifully with two picks in the top 20, and another first rounder (which at the minimum will be around the 23-25 range) next year. So, I think there were pros and cons for both teams here, which is how a good compromise should go ("have you heard of Henry Clay?"). I am much more interested in Denver now though. With 4,526 yards last year (17th all-time for a season), this is the most yards a QB has thrown for who has been traded the following year. Now they really have no QB, they have a new system, everyone in Denver is going nuts on McDaniels because they all like Cutler...this is all very fascinating. They have almost supplanted the Pats in terms of teams peaking my interest going into the draft.
Speaking of the draft (which is three weeks away...three weeks away!), kind of a troubling story came out today about B.J. Raji, who reportedly failed his combine drug test. The drug was not specified, but I mean...come on man. I'm going to go out on a limb and say it was not of the performance-enhancing variety (which could only mean one thing...wait, what was I talking about?). This is disappointing as a BC supporter because Raji was skyrocketing up draft boards, and some had him as high as going to the Rams at #2. Now, this may drop him out of the top 10 much like Andre Smith's recent theatrics did him in. My hope is that this report is either not true, or it was just pot and not steroids or anything like that. I think this is great that sports is at the point where I'm like "man, I hope he was just smoking weed." That's just priceless.
Alright, back to the kitchen for work tomorrow. I actually had this job three years ago, but I don't believe this any kind of "walk of shame" because a.) they wanted me back, b.) it pays pretty well, and c.) I had an amazing time the first time around, so I'm hopeful that things stay the same (none of the waitresses are there from before...hopefully the new crop is decent because those girls were way...everything (nice/cute/happy/into shift drinks)). So, this may cut down on the amount of time I have to talk to you guys, and it may mean that I don't do a Draft Day Diary, which I've been wanting to do since the last one back in '07, but I keep having to work on Draft Day. By the way, is this a sign of maturity that I can work on Draft Day without totally flipping out? I mean I'm probably not going to be able to get any work done, but isn't it the thought that counts there? Anyway, hope you are well out there. Have a great weekend. Peace.
~Mell-o
Monday, March 30, 2009
Opening Day Countdown
"You were lost in the silver spoon,
thought I pulled you out in time."
Apparently they are actually going to play baseball in Boston next week. Good luck with that. Today was like 35 degrees with 30 MPH winds and a steady downpour all day long. In other words, totally optimal baseball conditions. In any event, I'm totally stoked for this season. There are so many questions and so much intrigue. I feel like I say this every year, and every season, it ceases to amaze me about the ride that this team takes. I know that baseball is a long season, but really, the Sox start to make their way into the daily routine after about a week. That 7:00 game just works very nicely. You wake up, go to work, come home, have dinner, and then you're ready for the game. It all just kind of falls into place. So, again, I'm extremely excited, and if I do happen to be teaching on Monday and there is a TV that gets NESN present, all bets are off. Who can teach on opening day? That's just lunacy.
Random Prop Bet: Yankees' Winning % without A-Rod +50 vs. with A-Rod...I'm telling you, the last thing a Yankees fan will want to see is Alex Rodriguez donning the pinstripes. Don't say I didn't warn you.
Actually, that just inspired me to create a list:
The Top Ten Prop Bets of the 2009 MLB Season (completely made up):
The guard play has been off the charts for the C's as well. Of course, when you have a starting backcourt duo consisting of Rondo and Ray Allen, it definitely helps the cause. Not that those two haven't been playing great...they have...but I'm even more impressed with the play of Eddie House and Stephon Marbury. House is as lethal of an outside shooter as you can find in the NBA. It's gotten to the point where it is justifiable for him to shoot any shot within 30 feet, and even if he air-balls it, it's like "yeah, but he'll still make that shot 7 out of 10 times." I think he's on a Ray Allen level with me in that he can just take any outside shot, and if he misses, I don't think twice about if they could have got a better shot...no, that's Eddie House...he's not bashful...when he gets the ball, he's shooting. Marbury was someone who I thought would have a positive impact on the C's because he is very much in the "Randy Moss mode" of being able to set aside ego and individualism for the good of the team and the ultimate goal of winning a championship. Really, outside of an MVP, what has Marbury not done individually for a point guard that's left? Do you realize that he is in the top 15 all-time in assists? Yeah, I was surprised by that too, but it's true. He gets the bad reputation because he's on bad teams and gets frustrated. I love how his "strained" relationship with KG in Minnesota was brought up before he ended up in Boston. He was 21 when they traded him! Of course he's immature. You don't even want to know half the stuff I did or thought about doing when I was 21...it's frightening. In any event, you have a kid, for all intensive purposes, who was brash and didn't really understand the "team" concept, and yes, maybe it took him a bit longer than most players in the league to fully understand that concept, but I keep going back to Moss because it's just a bizarre parallel that these two have created. Both were superstars in the league, fell on rough times, were labelled as having "bad character," then move onto a team completely willing to take the risk for the above-average reward that could come, and both have benefited greatly from their moves. Marbury's timing couldn't have been better. With Tony Allen basically done for the year, Marbury then pushes Eddie House from the backup point guard to backup shooting guard, a role that I think even he will tell you is just much more suited to his game. This is all just coming together very nicely, but still, the C's are going to need to get KG and Leon back for the playoffs, because as well as the C's are playing right now, they're going nowhere without those two guys.
The Bruins, yes, your Northeast Division Champion Bruins, currently hold a seven point advantage over the Caps for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. The Bruins just went through a stretch where they didn't play for almost a week, which I think definitely helped them. Credit does have to go to Claude Juilen, who apparently was real hard on his team in the week-long hiatus from the ice, putting them through extensive practices with drills, scrimmages...the works. They played with a purpose in their two games back, going off on Toronto on Saturday in a 7-5 contest. They then turned right around the next day, flew to Philly, who is fourth in the East right now, and came away with a 4-3 victory to all but clinch the top spot going forward in the playoffs. I think a lot of it has to do with the deadline acquisition of Mark Recchi, and getting all of their pieces aligned around Recchi's arrival. When you add a guy like that, there is definitely some shifting of the lines that will take place, and there was obviously some adjustments that had to be made because of that, but now that everyone seems to be on the same page, the B's have looked pretty impressive, winning five of their last seven in this most critical time of the season. The B's are in a precarious position in that, if the playoffs were to start today, they would get the #1 seed, and guess who would be waiting for them in the #8 seed? You guessed it, those damn Montreal Canadiens, who have given the Bruins nothing but grief recently in the playoffs, starting with the 2003-04 season, a season where the Bruins were the top seed, and the Habs were #8 (deja vu is contagious). Boston was up 3-1 in the series, and watched then-Hart Trophy winner Jose Theodore put on a goalie clinic from Games 5-7, reeling off three straight wins to bounce the Bruins out in Game 7. Then, last year, the B's, who this time were the underdogged #8 going up against the top-seeded Canadiens, rallied back from 3-1 to tie the series, forcing the action to move back to Montreal for a Game 7...where we got annihilated. So, I guess what I'm trying to say is that I really just would rather avoid the whole Montreal thing. Then again, you're looking at a championship drought that has lasted for over 35 years (although this drought was more or less the product of terrible ownership and not a curse), and seemingly, it's always coming down to the arch-rival to move on...maybe the B's can use some of that '04 Red Sox magic to conjure up a Cup run this year (also, how long do they want to be so-called "black sheep" of the Boston sports landscape for not winning a title?).
I'm so happy I did not buy into the Julius Peppers story. See, I bet a lot of people were let down by that, but not me. I steered clear of that whole saga. Sure, I mentioned it to people, but in the same breath, also noted how much skepticism I had about it. Peppers hasn't even signed his franchise tender, so the Panthers can't even have direct communication with the Pats even if they wanted to trade him. Okay, so now, I'm just hoping the Pats get Jason Taylor, or at least someone proven to play OLB. In my latest mock draft, I have them taking Aaron Maybin from Penn State, which may be wishful thinking considering there's a very real possibility that he doesn't make it out of the top 15. Even if the Pats get Maybin, I would like to see some kind of Plan B being inititated. Jason Taylor, as I've said all along, makes way too much sense considering the talent you would be getting for the price tag that will come along with it. People are rushing to try and determine who had the best offseason. I think we should wait until after the draft to really start assessing how each team has fared. With that being said though, I really like what the Pats have done. They have brought experience (Taylor, Springs, Galloway) and youth (Bodden, Lewis) into the fold, and armed with eleven picks, including six in the top 100, you know the Pats will be major players on the first day of the draft.
I've thought about this Cassel trade for literally months now, and here is my final conclusion: Yes, a second round pick was probably not as much as the Pats may have been able to get. However, with the 34th pick, they suddenly find themselves in a position where teams could be willing to trade up to that pick and be prepared to ship New England a first-round pick in next year's draft. I don't think a lot has been said about this, but the Pats could absolutely bank a first-rounder out of this. For some precedence as to what I'm talking about, back in the '07 Draft, the Niners traded a fourth round pick in '07 and a first rounder in '08 to Indy for the #42 overall pick. So, based on that model, the #34 overall could be turned into a first-round pick. I guess I'm just throwing this out there because I've been thinking about this, like most Pats fans have, for months, and I think this is an idea that really hasn't been mentioned yet.
Well, I figured I would just check in and give you something other than college B-Ball. Next week is going to be crazy, starting this weekend with the Final Four, then onto Monday with the Sox playing their Opening Day game against the Rays in Fenway at 1, then the NCAA Championship game being played that night, and finally the Masters, easily the best tournament in golf, starts up on Monday and will feature Tiger Woods fresh off of his amazing finish at Bay Hill yesterday. Yeah, he's good. Well, hope all is right with you out there. Peace.
~Mell-o
thought I pulled you out in time."
Apparently they are actually going to play baseball in Boston next week. Good luck with that. Today was like 35 degrees with 30 MPH winds and a steady downpour all day long. In other words, totally optimal baseball conditions. In any event, I'm totally stoked for this season. There are so many questions and so much intrigue. I feel like I say this every year, and every season, it ceases to amaze me about the ride that this team takes. I know that baseball is a long season, but really, the Sox start to make their way into the daily routine after about a week. That 7:00 game just works very nicely. You wake up, go to work, come home, have dinner, and then you're ready for the game. It all just kind of falls into place. So, again, I'm extremely excited, and if I do happen to be teaching on Monday and there is a TV that gets NESN present, all bets are off. Who can teach on opening day? That's just lunacy.
Random Prop Bet: Yankees' Winning % without A-Rod +50 vs. with A-Rod...I'm telling you, the last thing a Yankees fan will want to see is Alex Rodriguez donning the pinstripes. Don't say I didn't warn you.
Actually, that just inspired me to create a list:
The Top Ten Prop Bets of the 2009 MLB Season (completely made up):
- Bobby Cox's Ejections: +/- 3.5
- A.J. Burnett Trip To The DL +/- June 1 (The J.D. Drew DL Trip line has officially been taken off the board due to its absolute inevitability, and also for the fact that he may start the year on the DL anyway...were we suppose to expect more than a game winning grand slam and one really good month for $70 million?)
- First Manager To Get Fired +/- July 1 (in addition, who will it be: Cecil Cooper (Astros): 2/1, Jim Leyland (Tigers) 9/2, Clint Hurdle (Rockies): 5/1, Cito Gaston (Blue Jays): 7/1, Dusty Baker (Reds): 10/1, Joe Girardi (Yankees): 12/1)
- Major League Best for Home Runs: +/-42.5 HRs
- Triple Crown Winner: 100/1; Player Winning Two Legs of the Triple Crown: 7/1
- Red Sox Sellout Streak Continuing: 3/1; Not Continuing: 8/1
- Combined HRs by Red Sox catchers +4 vs. Matt Wieters' HRs
- The Higest Annual Salary of a Player Who Gets Traded Before August 1: +/- $12 million (2009 figures: Magglio Ordonez: $18, Todd Helton: $16.6, Miguel Cabrera: $15, Mark Buehrle: $14, Matt Holliday: $13.5, Jose Guillen: $12, Joe Nathan: $11.25, Carlos Guillen: $10, Brian Giles: $9.7)
- Both New York Teams Will Once Again Not Make The Playoffs: 11/1
- Total Number of Players Who Will Test Positive, or Have Tests Leaked That They, At One Point, Tested Positive For Any Performance Enhancing Drug: +/- 20
- Under (I will use the Lethal Weapon "I'm getting to old for this s***" defense)
- After June 1 (I have the suspicion that Burnett will really start off on fire, much like I think the Yankees will, but then as soon as A-Rod is healthy again, the wheels will come off the wagon...and Burnett is going to the DL eventually...I mean there's no two ways about it...it's happening)
- Before July 1 (If Detroit struggle again, Leyland will be gone real quick; also, keep your eye on the Houston situation, because that team, from all accounts, is going to suck pretty bad this year, so Cooper will also likely be on a short leash)
- Over (I think this will barely go over...the best candidates to hit 44, which I think will probably be the mark, are Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Josh Hamilton, and Adam Dunn...by the way, last year's mark was 48 by Ryan Howard, but he and Adam Dunn were the only player to hit 40 or more)
- Triple Crown: No, 2/3: Yes (If anyone does actually win all three legs of the Triple Crown, it will be Albert Pujols, but the NL is so loaded with power hitters that I see it hard for Pujols to win the home run title. In the 2/3 bet, I will take Miguel Cabrera (HR/RBI), Josh Hamilton (HR/RBI), Ryan Howard (HR/RBI, which he actually did last year), Ryan Braun (HR/RBI), Pujols (AVG/RBI), and perhaps a dark horse, but Lance Berkman (AVG/RBI)
- Not Continuing (This is sad I know, but really, when is the last time you could buy bleacher tickets at face value right now for over half of the Sox' home games?)
- Wieters (At the absolute most, a catching platoon of Varitek and Kotteras will hit 17...that's the ceiling. With Wieters, I can see him getting to 20...and that's after he comes up in June. I'm saying right now he's good for at least 15 this year, and honestly, I'm not even sure the Sox' catchers will hit double-digits this year)
- Over (I have convinced myself about Holliday, especially if the A's are out of it. Basically all these guys are ripe to be dealt "especially if the (fill in the blank) are out of it." I am absolutely amazed by Detroit's salary figures. Barring some unbelievable turn of events where they are both amazingly good and sell out every game, they are going to have to get rid of at least one of their big-name players)
- No (I have absolutely no idea how the Yankees are going to end up even second in the East. Right now, Tampa and Boston are just better than them, and even with all the Yankee additions, are they really going to make that big of a jump in the standings? They gain Teixeira, but they lose Giambi (.247/32/96) and Abreu (.296/20/100), and Teixeira alone cannot make up for that (.308/33/121). The pitching is better, but the bullpen is still awful. So I think the absolute best they could do is second. I don't know where people are getting this "9/5 to win the World Series" stuff. I have already said that the Mets will win at least 90 games this year, and the law of averages simply says that there's no way that they don't get in to the postseason this year. They are 7/5 to win the East, and the NL East has been installed as the 1/2 favorite to land the NL Wild Card)
- Over (I have to believe that more names will be leaked off of the A-Rod 2003 report, an entirely different report will come out penning another big name which will entail itself to others, 10-15 will get caught just because they're not smart/rich enough to get around it, or a combination of the three. Whatever the case, I don't think people who try and dig this stuff up will be completely satisfied until every last big league player who has played in the MLB from the years 1988-2008 one way or another get indicted for using something.)
The guard play has been off the charts for the C's as well. Of course, when you have a starting backcourt duo consisting of Rondo and Ray Allen, it definitely helps the cause. Not that those two haven't been playing great...they have...but I'm even more impressed with the play of Eddie House and Stephon Marbury. House is as lethal of an outside shooter as you can find in the NBA. It's gotten to the point where it is justifiable for him to shoot any shot within 30 feet, and even if he air-balls it, it's like "yeah, but he'll still make that shot 7 out of 10 times." I think he's on a Ray Allen level with me in that he can just take any outside shot, and if he misses, I don't think twice about if they could have got a better shot...no, that's Eddie House...he's not bashful...when he gets the ball, he's shooting. Marbury was someone who I thought would have a positive impact on the C's because he is very much in the "Randy Moss mode" of being able to set aside ego and individualism for the good of the team and the ultimate goal of winning a championship. Really, outside of an MVP, what has Marbury not done individually for a point guard that's left? Do you realize that he is in the top 15 all-time in assists? Yeah, I was surprised by that too, but it's true. He gets the bad reputation because he's on bad teams and gets frustrated. I love how his "strained" relationship with KG in Minnesota was brought up before he ended up in Boston. He was 21 when they traded him! Of course he's immature. You don't even want to know half the stuff I did or thought about doing when I was 21...it's frightening. In any event, you have a kid, for all intensive purposes, who was brash and didn't really understand the "team" concept, and yes, maybe it took him a bit longer than most players in the league to fully understand that concept, but I keep going back to Moss because it's just a bizarre parallel that these two have created. Both were superstars in the league, fell on rough times, were labelled as having "bad character," then move onto a team completely willing to take the risk for the above-average reward that could come, and both have benefited greatly from their moves. Marbury's timing couldn't have been better. With Tony Allen basically done for the year, Marbury then pushes Eddie House from the backup point guard to backup shooting guard, a role that I think even he will tell you is just much more suited to his game. This is all just coming together very nicely, but still, the C's are going to need to get KG and Leon back for the playoffs, because as well as the C's are playing right now, they're going nowhere without those two guys.
The Bruins, yes, your Northeast Division Champion Bruins, currently hold a seven point advantage over the Caps for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. The Bruins just went through a stretch where they didn't play for almost a week, which I think definitely helped them. Credit does have to go to Claude Juilen, who apparently was real hard on his team in the week-long hiatus from the ice, putting them through extensive practices with drills, scrimmages...the works. They played with a purpose in their two games back, going off on Toronto on Saturday in a 7-5 contest. They then turned right around the next day, flew to Philly, who is fourth in the East right now, and came away with a 4-3 victory to all but clinch the top spot going forward in the playoffs. I think a lot of it has to do with the deadline acquisition of Mark Recchi, and getting all of their pieces aligned around Recchi's arrival. When you add a guy like that, there is definitely some shifting of the lines that will take place, and there was obviously some adjustments that had to be made because of that, but now that everyone seems to be on the same page, the B's have looked pretty impressive, winning five of their last seven in this most critical time of the season. The B's are in a precarious position in that, if the playoffs were to start today, they would get the #1 seed, and guess who would be waiting for them in the #8 seed? You guessed it, those damn Montreal Canadiens, who have given the Bruins nothing but grief recently in the playoffs, starting with the 2003-04 season, a season where the Bruins were the top seed, and the Habs were #8 (deja vu is contagious). Boston was up 3-1 in the series, and watched then-Hart Trophy winner Jose Theodore put on a goalie clinic from Games 5-7, reeling off three straight wins to bounce the Bruins out in Game 7. Then, last year, the B's, who this time were the underdogged #8 going up against the top-seeded Canadiens, rallied back from 3-1 to tie the series, forcing the action to move back to Montreal for a Game 7...where we got annihilated. So, I guess what I'm trying to say is that I really just would rather avoid the whole Montreal thing. Then again, you're looking at a championship drought that has lasted for over 35 years (although this drought was more or less the product of terrible ownership and not a curse), and seemingly, it's always coming down to the arch-rival to move on...maybe the B's can use some of that '04 Red Sox magic to conjure up a Cup run this year (also, how long do they want to be so-called "black sheep" of the Boston sports landscape for not winning a title?).
I'm so happy I did not buy into the Julius Peppers story. See, I bet a lot of people were let down by that, but not me. I steered clear of that whole saga. Sure, I mentioned it to people, but in the same breath, also noted how much skepticism I had about it. Peppers hasn't even signed his franchise tender, so the Panthers can't even have direct communication with the Pats even if they wanted to trade him. Okay, so now, I'm just hoping the Pats get Jason Taylor, or at least someone proven to play OLB. In my latest mock draft, I have them taking Aaron Maybin from Penn State, which may be wishful thinking considering there's a very real possibility that he doesn't make it out of the top 15. Even if the Pats get Maybin, I would like to see some kind of Plan B being inititated. Jason Taylor, as I've said all along, makes way too much sense considering the talent you would be getting for the price tag that will come along with it. People are rushing to try and determine who had the best offseason. I think we should wait until after the draft to really start assessing how each team has fared. With that being said though, I really like what the Pats have done. They have brought experience (Taylor, Springs, Galloway) and youth (Bodden, Lewis) into the fold, and armed with eleven picks, including six in the top 100, you know the Pats will be major players on the first day of the draft.
I've thought about this Cassel trade for literally months now, and here is my final conclusion: Yes, a second round pick was probably not as much as the Pats may have been able to get. However, with the 34th pick, they suddenly find themselves in a position where teams could be willing to trade up to that pick and be prepared to ship New England a first-round pick in next year's draft. I don't think a lot has been said about this, but the Pats could absolutely bank a first-rounder out of this. For some precedence as to what I'm talking about, back in the '07 Draft, the Niners traded a fourth round pick in '07 and a first rounder in '08 to Indy for the #42 overall pick. So, based on that model, the #34 overall could be turned into a first-round pick. I guess I'm just throwing this out there because I've been thinking about this, like most Pats fans have, for months, and I think this is an idea that really hasn't been mentioned yet.
Well, I figured I would just check in and give you something other than college B-Ball. Next week is going to be crazy, starting this weekend with the Final Four, then onto Monday with the Sox playing their Opening Day game against the Rays in Fenway at 1, then the NCAA Championship game being played that night, and finally the Masters, easily the best tournament in golf, starts up on Monday and will feature Tiger Woods fresh off of his amazing finish at Bay Hill yesterday. Yeah, he's good. Well, hope all is right with you out there. Peace.
~Mell-o
Sunday, March 29, 2009
2009 NFL Mock Draft 2.0
"I'm the fear addicted, danger illustrated."
So the combine and the free agency period has come and gone, and instead of studying for my upcoming teaching licensing exam, I'm going to spend a few moments by updating my mock draft. Again, I have no idea how many of these I will do, but here comes the second installment:
1. Detroit- Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit: Okay, now I'm convinced about this one. Detroit is sitting there with the 20th pick, which they could easily turn into Jay Cutler at this point, and yet they are standing pat, which basically is telling me that they're sold on Stafford to take him #1.
2. St. Louis- Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia: This one now has me a little perplexed in the fact that the Rams are obviously going to draft a tackle...but which one? Personally, I have Jason Smith higher than Monroe right now, and yet the whispers around are saying that the Rams are favoring Monroe right now. They absolutely are drafting a tackle though after the release of Orlando Pace
3. Kansas City- Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest: This now becomes the easiest pick to predict...even easier than the Stafford pick. Curry is exactly what the Chiefs need, and while they are still needing to address Jared Allen's absence two years later, Curry is the #1 player in this draft, and as I've said before, a linebacker with a top-10 grade rarely misses.
4. Seattle- Jason Smith, OT, Baylor: This pick has changed for me over and over again. They needed a receiver, but then they got Houshmandzadeh. Then I'm thinking D-Tackle, but they trade for Cory Redding, so that's out. They very well could go receiver here, but I think if one of the two tackles (Monroe or Smith...in this case, Smith) falls to them at four, they cannot afford to pass on them. Walter Jones is 35, and they are going to need help at that position sooner rather than later.
5. Cleveland- Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas: I originally slated Malcolm Jenkins because it made a ton of sense...he's a corner, which they need, and he's a Buckeye, which works in Cleveland. The problem is that this draft will be run by Mangini and Co., which means that corner will probably not be something they think about at #5. Instead, they are probably going to try the Mario Williams route and try to get the franchise end. I'm huge on Orakpo, but I'm going to closely monitor this one because right now, there really hasn't been much of a read on this one.
6. Cincinnati- Andre Smith, OT, Alabama: Again, the concept of a team full of bad characters accepting yet another bad character into the group makes a bunch of sense. Can someone please explain why Smith ran shirtless at his pro day? He was wildly out of shape, so why showcase the man-boobs? This guy is probably the scariest pick on the board.
7. Oakland- Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State: Instead of taking a chance on a guy like Crabtree or B.J. Raji, the Raiders, or more or less Al Davis, will be going for the best athlete on the board. Brown can play two positions, and is a total workhorse. All things considered, this is still a good value pick for Oakland.
8. Jacksonville- Mark Sanchez, QB, Southern Cal: I didn't think it would come to this for the Jags, but despite the fact that Jacksonville has David Garrard in place, I think they secretly are looking for a reason to unload him, especially after last year's debaucle. What a difference the '08 season made. Going into last year, they thought they had their franchise QB in Garrard, and now it seems like they can't wait to get rid of him. This works also in the fact that Sanchez will likely be able to take a year to be under Garrard's tutilledge, for whatever that's worth. It is proven that a rookie QB is much better in the short-term sitting out the first year and learning the system than to jump right in from Day 1 (Matt Ryan being an obvious exception).
9. Green Bay- B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College: I think the basic sentiments about Raji are that he is as good of a "sure-fire" pick as you're going to get in the draft. Athletically gifted, great football IQ, Raji is the total package. Green Bay will be shifting to the 3-4 next year (which has already been viewed with some skepticism), and from watching the kind of impact Vince Wilfork has on the defense, it's easy to understand how critical it is to have a competent tackle in a 3-4.
10. San Francisco- Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech: This team needs help at a bunch of different spots, but what's interesting to me is that no one has mentioned the Niners going after a receiver with this pick. At last check, their receivers are Josh Morgan, Isaac Bruce, Arnaz Battle, Bryant Johnson, and Jason Hill...not exactly a "who's who" for that position. The Niners clearly are not comfortable with their quarterback after their recent pursuit of Kurt Warner, but if Stafford and Sanchez are both gone, there isn't a QB outside of those two who is deserving of a top-10 pick.
11. Buffalo Bills- Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech: It appears like the Bills will be looking for some help on their D-Line, which means that they may reach here for Johnson, whose combine performance likely helped him get from the bottom of the first round to near top1-0 status.
12. Denver Broncos- Brian Cushing, LB, Southern Cal: So the Broncos have sure made a ton of noise for all the wrong reasons since the last mock draft. Despite their QB issues, look for the Broncos to address their linebacker shortage with this pick. Basically, it's like "pick your favorite Southern Cal linebacker here."
13. Washington- Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss: I think the 'Skins biggest problem isn't the effectiveness of Jason Campbell (it's a problem, but not the biggest), but keeping Clinton Portis healthy. The 'Skins need of Portis in the game is almost as crucial as the Colts needing of Peyton Manning to run the offense...that's how vital Portis is in the gran scheme of things. With that being said, going O-Line here would be a sound move in re-building a line that was shaky at times last year (mostly due to injuries).
14. New Orleans- Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State: This would be a pretty good get for the Saints to snag Jenkins outside the top 10. They have some concerns at linebacker, but right now, I think they go with Jenkins because of the value they are getting here.
15. Houston- Rey Maualuga, LB, Southern Cal: The Texans have done a nice job of refurbishing their defense through the draft, and I feel like they will continue to do so in this draft and with this pick.
16. San Diego- Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU: For right now, I'm going to just assume that the Chargers are going to wait to work on their running back situation and instead focus on something that is more pressing in the current situation. The Chargers had an incredibly tough time putting pressure on the QB after Merriman went out for the year.
17. New York Jets- Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri: It's amazing what the effect of Crabtree slipping to pick #10 has on Maclin, the consensus second-best receiver in the draft. The Jets are definitely going to be in the market for a receiver after watching Laveranues Coles head off to Cincy.
18. Chicago- Darius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland: Another workout warrior here in Bey, who ran the fastest 40 time at the combine. He has slipped in front of Hakeem Nicks for the #3 WR, which in my opinion is a mistake, but in any case, the Bears have to go receiver here...Devin Hester is the #2 receiver on this team...that's not something to gloat about.
19. Tampa Bay- Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State: I'm basically going to go with my fellow draftniks on this pick because they all have Freeman going to the Bucs. Of course the whole Jay Cutler situation has yet to be resolved, and Tampa is obviously going to be a major player if Cutler is made available...again...but if they can't get him, it looks like they will try and make Freeman a franchise QB, which he very well could do, but I think we don't know enough about him right now to annoint him a "franchise" QB.
20. Detroit- Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois: I think that trying to figure out what the Lions are going to do is the hardest task of this entire draft...what do you get for the team that needs everything? A lot of people are in line with my thinking in that the Lions will just be trying to get the best player available, because if they do that, a.) they really can't miss, and b.) one way or another, they are going to be filling a need. I will be absolutely stunned if the Lions cannot put together a top-3 draft class given the picks that they have.
21. Philadelphia- Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State: Of course when you do these mock drafts, you try to think like how each of these teams' GMs think. If I'm Philly, I have to spring for Pettigrew right now. As history has shown us, these bottom ten picks in the first round are very much up for grabs. So, this makes sense because he's the best TE available, the Eagles desperately need a TE, they have to be wary of other teams trying to trade up to get him, and I think the biggest reason this makes sense is that drafting Pettigre at #21 is not a reach, and you're getting good value for the pick.
22. Minnesota- Eben Britton, OT, Arizona: The Vikings lost Matt Birk to the Titans, which leaves a rather huge hole in their O-Line. However, there isn't an interior O-Lineman that is worthy of going right here. I think they take Britton to sure up the right side of the line. Remember, they are starting the year with Sage Rosenfels behind center (whoever that center may be), so any help they can get on that line will be needed.
23. New England- Aaron Maybin, DE/LB, Penn State: This is one of those times where I'm betting with my head over my heart on this one. Obviously, my heart is screaming for James Laurinaitis, much like it did for Paul Poslunsky in a similar spot two years ago. I just Laurinaitis fits the mold better than anyone that the Pats could take. Optimally though, they are looking for an OLB, and Laurinaitis is an ILB, so I'll slot Maybin here.
24. Atlanta- Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss: I'm sticking with Jerry here because the Falcons were so bad against the run last year that they absolutely need to improve up front.
25. Miami- Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forst: I was pencilling in a linebacker here, but it appears like the Dolphins may be heading in a different direction than I initially thought, suring up their defensive backfield instead and going with Smith, who heads up the second tier of DBs in the draft.
26. Baltimore- Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina: Nicks is a big, physical specimen who is likely to yield big dividends to whoever takes him. Baltimore is ideal because they simply don't have that big target for Flacco.
27. Indianapolis- Percy Harvin, WR, Florida: It's a long shot that Harvin stays on the board for this long, but if he does, doesn't Harvin fit in Indy really well? He's a good system receiver, and he'll be going into a system that operates much like Florida's did (basically the "you can't stop them, just hope to maintain them" philosophy).
28. Philadelphia- Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State: It definitely took a long time for the first running back to come off the board, which makes me think that I may be doing some adjusting here (well, I was going to do some adjustments anyway, but this is another reason for it).
29. New York Giants- James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State: The Giants have drafted exceptionally well on defense recently, so don't be surprised if they add on another defensive stud here.
30. Tennessee- Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers: Britt has officially broken through into garnering a first-round grade after his impressive workouts, and again, as was evident in the playoffs last year, the Titans desperately need a possession receiver other than Justin Gage.
31. Arizona- Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia: This is really low for Moreno, who I had going #16 in my first mock draft. However, if Moreno is not careful, he may slip out of the first round altogether with LeSean McCoy and Donald Brown nipping at his heels.
32. Pittsburgh- William Beatty, OT, Connecticut: Beatty is another example of a player helping themselves out with the combine and their pro days. Beatty now has a high second-round grade, and given the Steelers' needs, likely bumps him into the end of the first.
Again, and I know this gets repetitive, but there will be more of these to come, so stay tuned for that. Have a good week everyone. Peace.
~Mell-o
So the combine and the free agency period has come and gone, and instead of studying for my upcoming teaching licensing exam, I'm going to spend a few moments by updating my mock draft. Again, I have no idea how many of these I will do, but here comes the second installment:
1. Detroit- Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit: Okay, now I'm convinced about this one. Detroit is sitting there with the 20th pick, which they could easily turn into Jay Cutler at this point, and yet they are standing pat, which basically is telling me that they're sold on Stafford to take him #1.
2. St. Louis- Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia: This one now has me a little perplexed in the fact that the Rams are obviously going to draft a tackle...but which one? Personally, I have Jason Smith higher than Monroe right now, and yet the whispers around are saying that the Rams are favoring Monroe right now. They absolutely are drafting a tackle though after the release of Orlando Pace
3. Kansas City- Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest: This now becomes the easiest pick to predict...even easier than the Stafford pick. Curry is exactly what the Chiefs need, and while they are still needing to address Jared Allen's absence two years later, Curry is the #1 player in this draft, and as I've said before, a linebacker with a top-10 grade rarely misses.
4. Seattle- Jason Smith, OT, Baylor: This pick has changed for me over and over again. They needed a receiver, but then they got Houshmandzadeh. Then I'm thinking D-Tackle, but they trade for Cory Redding, so that's out. They very well could go receiver here, but I think if one of the two tackles (Monroe or Smith...in this case, Smith) falls to them at four, they cannot afford to pass on them. Walter Jones is 35, and they are going to need help at that position sooner rather than later.
5. Cleveland- Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas: I originally slated Malcolm Jenkins because it made a ton of sense...he's a corner, which they need, and he's a Buckeye, which works in Cleveland. The problem is that this draft will be run by Mangini and Co., which means that corner will probably not be something they think about at #5. Instead, they are probably going to try the Mario Williams route and try to get the franchise end. I'm huge on Orakpo, but I'm going to closely monitor this one because right now, there really hasn't been much of a read on this one.
6. Cincinnati- Andre Smith, OT, Alabama: Again, the concept of a team full of bad characters accepting yet another bad character into the group makes a bunch of sense. Can someone please explain why Smith ran shirtless at his pro day? He was wildly out of shape, so why showcase the man-boobs? This guy is probably the scariest pick on the board.
7. Oakland- Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State: Instead of taking a chance on a guy like Crabtree or B.J. Raji, the Raiders, or more or less Al Davis, will be going for the best athlete on the board. Brown can play two positions, and is a total workhorse. All things considered, this is still a good value pick for Oakland.
8. Jacksonville- Mark Sanchez, QB, Southern Cal: I didn't think it would come to this for the Jags, but despite the fact that Jacksonville has David Garrard in place, I think they secretly are looking for a reason to unload him, especially after last year's debaucle. What a difference the '08 season made. Going into last year, they thought they had their franchise QB in Garrard, and now it seems like they can't wait to get rid of him. This works also in the fact that Sanchez will likely be able to take a year to be under Garrard's tutilledge, for whatever that's worth. It is proven that a rookie QB is much better in the short-term sitting out the first year and learning the system than to jump right in from Day 1 (Matt Ryan being an obvious exception).
9. Green Bay- B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College: I think the basic sentiments about Raji are that he is as good of a "sure-fire" pick as you're going to get in the draft. Athletically gifted, great football IQ, Raji is the total package. Green Bay will be shifting to the 3-4 next year (which has already been viewed with some skepticism), and from watching the kind of impact Vince Wilfork has on the defense, it's easy to understand how critical it is to have a competent tackle in a 3-4.
10. San Francisco- Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech: This team needs help at a bunch of different spots, but what's interesting to me is that no one has mentioned the Niners going after a receiver with this pick. At last check, their receivers are Josh Morgan, Isaac Bruce, Arnaz Battle, Bryant Johnson, and Jason Hill...not exactly a "who's who" for that position. The Niners clearly are not comfortable with their quarterback after their recent pursuit of Kurt Warner, but if Stafford and Sanchez are both gone, there isn't a QB outside of those two who is deserving of a top-10 pick.
11. Buffalo Bills- Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech: It appears like the Bills will be looking for some help on their D-Line, which means that they may reach here for Johnson, whose combine performance likely helped him get from the bottom of the first round to near top1-0 status.
12. Denver Broncos- Brian Cushing, LB, Southern Cal: So the Broncos have sure made a ton of noise for all the wrong reasons since the last mock draft. Despite their QB issues, look for the Broncos to address their linebacker shortage with this pick. Basically, it's like "pick your favorite Southern Cal linebacker here."
13. Washington- Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss: I think the 'Skins biggest problem isn't the effectiveness of Jason Campbell (it's a problem, but not the biggest), but keeping Clinton Portis healthy. The 'Skins need of Portis in the game is almost as crucial as the Colts needing of Peyton Manning to run the offense...that's how vital Portis is in the gran scheme of things. With that being said, going O-Line here would be a sound move in re-building a line that was shaky at times last year (mostly due to injuries).
14. New Orleans- Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State: This would be a pretty good get for the Saints to snag Jenkins outside the top 10. They have some concerns at linebacker, but right now, I think they go with Jenkins because of the value they are getting here.
15. Houston- Rey Maualuga, LB, Southern Cal: The Texans have done a nice job of refurbishing their defense through the draft, and I feel like they will continue to do so in this draft and with this pick.
16. San Diego- Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU: For right now, I'm going to just assume that the Chargers are going to wait to work on their running back situation and instead focus on something that is more pressing in the current situation. The Chargers had an incredibly tough time putting pressure on the QB after Merriman went out for the year.
17. New York Jets- Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri: It's amazing what the effect of Crabtree slipping to pick #10 has on Maclin, the consensus second-best receiver in the draft. The Jets are definitely going to be in the market for a receiver after watching Laveranues Coles head off to Cincy.
18. Chicago- Darius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland: Another workout warrior here in Bey, who ran the fastest 40 time at the combine. He has slipped in front of Hakeem Nicks for the #3 WR, which in my opinion is a mistake, but in any case, the Bears have to go receiver here...Devin Hester is the #2 receiver on this team...that's not something to gloat about.
19. Tampa Bay- Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State: I'm basically going to go with my fellow draftniks on this pick because they all have Freeman going to the Bucs. Of course the whole Jay Cutler situation has yet to be resolved, and Tampa is obviously going to be a major player if Cutler is made available...again...but if they can't get him, it looks like they will try and make Freeman a franchise QB, which he very well could do, but I think we don't know enough about him right now to annoint him a "franchise" QB.
20. Detroit- Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois: I think that trying to figure out what the Lions are going to do is the hardest task of this entire draft...what do you get for the team that needs everything? A lot of people are in line with my thinking in that the Lions will just be trying to get the best player available, because if they do that, a.) they really can't miss, and b.) one way or another, they are going to be filling a need. I will be absolutely stunned if the Lions cannot put together a top-3 draft class given the picks that they have.
21. Philadelphia- Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State: Of course when you do these mock drafts, you try to think like how each of these teams' GMs think. If I'm Philly, I have to spring for Pettigrew right now. As history has shown us, these bottom ten picks in the first round are very much up for grabs. So, this makes sense because he's the best TE available, the Eagles desperately need a TE, they have to be wary of other teams trying to trade up to get him, and I think the biggest reason this makes sense is that drafting Pettigre at #21 is not a reach, and you're getting good value for the pick.
22. Minnesota- Eben Britton, OT, Arizona: The Vikings lost Matt Birk to the Titans, which leaves a rather huge hole in their O-Line. However, there isn't an interior O-Lineman that is worthy of going right here. I think they take Britton to sure up the right side of the line. Remember, they are starting the year with Sage Rosenfels behind center (whoever that center may be), so any help they can get on that line will be needed.
23. New England- Aaron Maybin, DE/LB, Penn State: This is one of those times where I'm betting with my head over my heart on this one. Obviously, my heart is screaming for James Laurinaitis, much like it did for Paul Poslunsky in a similar spot two years ago. I just Laurinaitis fits the mold better than anyone that the Pats could take. Optimally though, they are looking for an OLB, and Laurinaitis is an ILB, so I'll slot Maybin here.
24. Atlanta- Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss: I'm sticking with Jerry here because the Falcons were so bad against the run last year that they absolutely need to improve up front.
25. Miami- Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forst: I was pencilling in a linebacker here, but it appears like the Dolphins may be heading in a different direction than I initially thought, suring up their defensive backfield instead and going with Smith, who heads up the second tier of DBs in the draft.
26. Baltimore- Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina: Nicks is a big, physical specimen who is likely to yield big dividends to whoever takes him. Baltimore is ideal because they simply don't have that big target for Flacco.
27. Indianapolis- Percy Harvin, WR, Florida: It's a long shot that Harvin stays on the board for this long, but if he does, doesn't Harvin fit in Indy really well? He's a good system receiver, and he'll be going into a system that operates much like Florida's did (basically the "you can't stop them, just hope to maintain them" philosophy).
28. Philadelphia- Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State: It definitely took a long time for the first running back to come off the board, which makes me think that I may be doing some adjusting here (well, I was going to do some adjustments anyway, but this is another reason for it).
29. New York Giants- James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State: The Giants have drafted exceptionally well on defense recently, so don't be surprised if they add on another defensive stud here.
30. Tennessee- Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers: Britt has officially broken through into garnering a first-round grade after his impressive workouts, and again, as was evident in the playoffs last year, the Titans desperately need a possession receiver other than Justin Gage.
31. Arizona- Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia: This is really low for Moreno, who I had going #16 in my first mock draft. However, if Moreno is not careful, he may slip out of the first round altogether with LeSean McCoy and Donald Brown nipping at his heels.
32. Pittsburgh- William Beatty, OT, Connecticut: Beatty is another example of a player helping themselves out with the combine and their pro days. Beatty now has a high second-round grade, and given the Steelers' needs, likely bumps him into the end of the first.
Again, and I know this gets repetitive, but there will be more of these to come, so stay tuned for that. Have a good week everyone. Peace.
~Mell-o
Bracket Breakdown: Elite Eight
"I'm not growing up, I'm just burning out."
Sorry I put this up so late. I got kind of hung up yesterday and was not able to get writing before the games started. Again, sorry for the lateness.
Saturday Games:
4:40: (1) Connecticut vs. (3) Missouri; West Region; Glendale:
Mizzou was dominant against Memphis, but they allowed the Tigers to get back into the game. UConn has been either the most or second-most impressive team in the tourney, and right now, I think the Huskies just have too much of everything. All things considered, Mizzou has established themselves as a presence and a team on the brink of being a national powerhouse.
Original Pick: Memphis, Present Pick: Connecticut
7:05: (1) Pittsburgh vs. (3) Villanova; East Region; Boston:
I'm in one of these elimination pools where your team has to beat the spread to continue on. Long story short, I ended up with Pittsburgh, who is favored by two. However, if I have to make a pick, regardless of my personal potential financial gains, I have to go with the 'Cats in this game. It is between 'Nova and UConn for who is having the most impressive tournament. I loved Pitt from the beginning, but as the tournament has gone on, it is clear that the Panthers do not quite have it.
Original Pick: Pittsburgh, Present Pick: Villanova
Sunday Games:
2:20: (1) Louisville vs. (2) Michigan State; Midwest Region; Indianapolis:
The Cardinals have had one of the luckiest draws in recent memory, not having to play anyone above a 9-seed in the first three games. The Spartans have been scratching and surviving through the last two games, especially last round against Kansas. I feel like the Cards will get a taste of reality here. Plus, the Spartans are this close to getting to the Final Four in Detroit. I don't remember the last time a team had basically a home game in the Final Four.
Original Pick: Michigan State, Present Pick: Michigan State
5:05: (1) North Carolina vs. (2) Oklahoma; South Region; Memphis:
So the matchup that I never thought would happen is happening: Blake Griffin vs. Tyler Hansbrough. If this was a one-on-one contest, I'm taking Griffin every time. However, the game will not be just about these two guys (although a large majority of it is). The Tar Heels are absolutely loaded, and they have been playing well even with Ty Lawson clearly not at 100%. The Sooners blasted 'Cuse last round, and they were also going up against a team who had a point guard in less than optimal shape. I feel that ultimately, Lawson's injury will creep up again, and the Sooners will be able to take advantage of it. To me, this game will come down to coaching, and as much as I like Jeff Capel, he has never been this far as a coach. I feel like Roy Williams' experience will take over, and the Tar Heels' depth will shine through.
Original Pick: North Carolina, Present Pick: North Carolina
I swear I really had 'Nova winning yesterday. What a fantastic finish. In any event, we will not have four #1's in the Final Four again, and I hope that never happens again. 'Nova is adding a little spice to a tournament that, for the most part, was totally mundane. Anyway, enjoy the games today. Peace.
~Mell-o
Sorry I put this up so late. I got kind of hung up yesterday and was not able to get writing before the games started. Again, sorry for the lateness.
Saturday Games:
4:40: (1) Connecticut vs. (3) Missouri; West Region; Glendale:
Mizzou was dominant against Memphis, but they allowed the Tigers to get back into the game. UConn has been either the most or second-most impressive team in the tourney, and right now, I think the Huskies just have too much of everything. All things considered, Mizzou has established themselves as a presence and a team on the brink of being a national powerhouse.
Original Pick: Memphis, Present Pick: Connecticut
7:05: (1) Pittsburgh vs. (3) Villanova; East Region; Boston:
I'm in one of these elimination pools where your team has to beat the spread to continue on. Long story short, I ended up with Pittsburgh, who is favored by two. However, if I have to make a pick, regardless of my personal potential financial gains, I have to go with the 'Cats in this game. It is between 'Nova and UConn for who is having the most impressive tournament. I loved Pitt from the beginning, but as the tournament has gone on, it is clear that the Panthers do not quite have it.
Original Pick: Pittsburgh, Present Pick: Villanova
Sunday Games:
2:20: (1) Louisville vs. (2) Michigan State; Midwest Region; Indianapolis:
The Cardinals have had one of the luckiest draws in recent memory, not having to play anyone above a 9-seed in the first three games. The Spartans have been scratching and surviving through the last two games, especially last round against Kansas. I feel like the Cards will get a taste of reality here. Plus, the Spartans are this close to getting to the Final Four in Detroit. I don't remember the last time a team had basically a home game in the Final Four.
Original Pick: Michigan State, Present Pick: Michigan State
5:05: (1) North Carolina vs. (2) Oklahoma; South Region; Memphis:
So the matchup that I never thought would happen is happening: Blake Griffin vs. Tyler Hansbrough. If this was a one-on-one contest, I'm taking Griffin every time. However, the game will not be just about these two guys (although a large majority of it is). The Tar Heels are absolutely loaded, and they have been playing well even with Ty Lawson clearly not at 100%. The Sooners blasted 'Cuse last round, and they were also going up against a team who had a point guard in less than optimal shape. I feel that ultimately, Lawson's injury will creep up again, and the Sooners will be able to take advantage of it. To me, this game will come down to coaching, and as much as I like Jeff Capel, he has never been this far as a coach. I feel like Roy Williams' experience will take over, and the Tar Heels' depth will shine through.
Original Pick: North Carolina, Present Pick: North Carolina
I swear I really had 'Nova winning yesterday. What a fantastic finish. In any event, we will not have four #1's in the Final Four again, and I hope that never happens again. 'Nova is adding a little spice to a tournament that, for the most part, was totally mundane. Anyway, enjoy the games today. Peace.
~Mell-o
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