So I Talk To My NFL Diary (Super Bowl XLVI)

8:58: Almost made it to 9. Haha, that was my goal because I was thinking if I got like six or seven hours sleep today, it would perhaps help in the survival of the non-stop drinking escapade that is colloquially known as Super Bowl Sunday...which is here!!!...FINALLY!!! YES!!! Haha, it's Super Bowl Sunday, and your New England Patriots will be playing in their fifth one in ten years. I know it's been said a lot, but quite frankly, before 2000, we honestly thought that we would never get back to the Super Bowl after the Tuna bolted for Jersey and took Curtis Martin (actually, newest member to the Hall of Fame Curtis Martin) with him. But, with a sly trade with the same team for an evil genius of a coach, a 6th round QB who has become the greatest ever, and a commitment to excellence, we have been the gold standard in the NFL for the past decade...pretty freggin' great.

Okay, so enough gushing about the past, onto the present. I'm sure like me you've been fed Super Bowl "insights" at nauseum (especially if you live up here), so I'm gonna hope to touch on things that perhaps have gone unnoticed. Let's get right into it...

What The Giants Have Going For Them:

• The "Hot" Factor: While the Patriots are riding a 10-game winning streak, the Giants have arguably been the best team in football in the last month outside of the Niners game which they miraculously pulled off. They demolished two solid pass offenses in Atlanta and Green Bay and, much like four years ago, they are playing their best ball now coming off of two wins on the road vs. the #1 and #2 seed in the NFC.
• Pass Rush: You would be remissed to talk about the Giants and not talk about their front four, which is the best in the game. Canty, Umenyiora, Tuck, Pierre-Paul...they're really good...we get it. It worked the last time these two teams played, and the G-Men are going to do everything they can to make that happen again.
• Wide Receivers: Again, you really can't talk about this team without mentioning the wideout group, especially when you have someone as talented as Mario Manningham being an almost after-thought in the grand scheme of things. Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, and Victor Cruz are an imposing group, and helped Eli to almost throw for 5,000 yards this season...speaking of which...
• Eli: For a while, it didn't seem like Eli would ever be put under the "strengths" of the Giants, as he was prone to go Romo on his team late in games, causing people to believe he would never get out from under his brother's shadow. However, if he pulls this down tonight, he could be argued as being better than Tom Brady right now (all-time, he's got a LONG way to go to catch TFB), and being the best QB in the league. If Eli had the season he had basically any other year but this one, he likely would have been a runaway MVP choice. Now, he has a chance to become the best player at his position by winning a Super Bowl at the place his brother built, and take a 2-1 lead over his brother in rings...it's an interesting subplot.
• Tom Coughlin: Oddly enough, Tom Coughlin is almost facing the same shadow-fighting that Eli is. Belichick at this point has to be thrown in the discussion with Lombardi, Walsh, and Landry for greatest coaches in the history of the league, while Coughlin may not even make people's top 5 list for best coaches in the present NFL despite having a 10-7 postseason record and a Super Bowl ring. Both he and Belichick came up through the aforementioned Tuna with the Giants back in the day, and you can tell that Coughlin is not at all happy to be playing second fiddle again to Bill despite beating him not only in the Super Bowl but in the 2011 season with yet another two-minute drill for the win.
• A Much Improved Rushing Attack: It was tough for me to understand why the Giants were so awful rushing the ball with two very good backs in Bradshaw and Jacobs, but they were 31st in the regular season in yards. However, it appears like the G-Men are using their new and improved "thunder and lightning" attack much more effectively, and was evident in all three of their playoff wins. Ahmad Bradshaw is practicing back-to-back days for the first time all season apparently, so you know he's going to be at his best tonight, which the Giants need to create a semi-equal mix of run and pass (I say semi-equal because I will be shocked if it's not about a 65/35 pass/run split and Eli has at least 35-40 attempts.

What The Pats Have Going For Them:

• Brady and Belichick: I mean what can you say really? They have outdone Walsh and Montana thus far, and only need the one more ring for both of them to be the greatest ever at their respective positions. Brady beat the all-time passing yard mark in a season set by Dan Marino by 150 yards...and got no MVP votes...ZERO!!! (Drew Brees, who now has the record with 5,476, got two votes...yikes). Clearly he has been playing with that pissed off mentality ever since these said Giants beat him, which, oh by the way, was the last game we have lost in almost three months. Belichick apparently will not be rocking an ultra-gay red hoodie like he did the last Super Bowl. I thought we were in trouble going into that game, and then I saw his neon red ensemble, and I knew we were screwed. Stick with gray Bill. Remember, the more homeless looking, the better (or the more evil looking...something like that)
• Dub-Dub: Okay, so it is possible that this is Wes Welker's last game in New England, but honestly, if we can't work something out to keep the greatest slot receiver in the history of organized football here, we have more problems than I think Pats fans ever want to know about, and furthermore, I don't want to ball and weep which is what I know will happen if my favorite Patriot of all time goes anywhere else. In any event, the aggressive Giants front means a lot of looks for the human chain mover. His 11 catches in XLII against the G-Men tied a Super Bowl record, and also added a nine catch, 139 yard performance against them this season. They have no answer for him, as basically the NFL has yet to figure him out. Speaking of offensive weapons no one can figure out...
• Gronk Spiking and Making It Rain: I don't even have to look this up, but Gronk and Hernandez are the greatest 1-2 TE punch in the history of the league...that has to be true. Gronk obviously is getting more of the attention due to having the most prolific season by a tight end, having an ankle injury that no one really has any clue about how severe it is to him (while high ankle sprains could derail a lot of people, consider that Gronk a.) played immediately after injuring it in the Baltimore game, and b.) landed on his neck earlier this year that would have caused most people, like myself, to have induced paralysis, and not only did he get up, but he Gronk spiked the hell out of the ball), and for his general aloofness to pressure or any scrutiny whatsoever (how clutch was "yo soy fiesta?"...even my Mom knows about that). However, Aaron Hernandez is a top 5 TE in this league, and he's on the same team. If Hernandez is on any other team (which I pray to God never happens), he would probably make the Pro Bowl and have Gronk-like numbers. However, he has excelled in his role and has even added running out of the backfield to his repertoire (the formation with him directly behind or set next to Brady with Gronk on the end of the line has proven to be lethal this year). I expect a monster game from both collectively. Vernon Davis, who I consider to be like a Gronk/Hernandez hybrid, torched the Giants for 112 yards and two scores (granted, he only had three catches). Gronk had eight catches for 101 yards and a score against them in Week 8, while Hernandez added four catches for 35 and a score as well.
  
• The Middle of The Field (offense): As I just demonstrated, the WHONK combo lit the Giants up this year (well, they pretty much did that to everyone), so there's that. Then, you look at the other part of the Pats' offense that goes overlooked, and it's the interior linemen. Both Logan Mankins and Brian Waters were selected to start the Pro Bowl...that's impressive. Dan Connolly has done a great job filling in this year for the injured Dan Koppen...it's a very good G-C-G tandem. While the Giants will likely be flooding blitzers and linemen from the outside, the Pats excel at moving the chains between the numbers. The Law Firm had a terrific game against the Ravens with 68 yards and a score, and at one point was averaging close to nine yards a carry. Look for the Pats to impose their dominance up the middle early.
• The Middle of The Field (defense): It all starts with Vince Wilfork playing up front. He has been probably the most consistent defensive player we've had on this team since Bruschi. Without Big Vince, all the injuries we had on defense would have sunk us. Speaking of injured players, Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes, who both missed time this year, look to be at about 100%. Mayo is a known commodity in the league and is one of the biggest tackle machines in the league. Look out for Spikes though. This was one of those picks the Pats made that I was super-excited about from the jump. Spikes not only can play the run and the pass, but he's also shown that ever-mentioned "ball hawking" ability. I will be stunned if he doesn't make a significant mark on this game (oh yeah, he got hurt during the last Giants game and missed the final drive...but the media doesn't seem to bother to tell you about that...hmmm...interesting). At safety, Patrick Chung can just straight light people up, and that's all you really need to know.
• The Wild Cards: I could be wrong, but I think we know everything about the Giants on a team level. I'm pretty sure no one is going to come up and surprise anyone today. However, on the Pats side? We're littered with them. You have to start at the receiver position because never on a Tom Brady-led team have the WRs been downplayed this much. Deion Branch won Super Bowl MVP against Philly and has shown that he still has the speed and abilities to make big plays (the 60+ yarder against Denver). Julian Edelman is Wes Welker's backup at the slot, but he's also the starting punt returner and plays corner on nickel packages. The Giants have been salivating to get out and test Edelman's abilities, but honestly, I'm not extremely worried about Julian out there. I think we have precedence with Troy Brown playing corner, and I think once he was able to do that successfully, having Edelman take reps at corner was not really that big of a deal to me. Eli will be looking his way a lot, and Victor Cruz is going to make catches, but they're not going to do nearly the amount of damage that they think they will. Perhaps the biggest wild card of all is the Ocho...yes, him. I have been going on for months and months about how Ocho could have his breakout game this week. Well, this is it. This is the reason Chad came here. Honestly, if he's out there, it's put up or shut up time. He will have all the advantages in the world going up against Aaron Ross with all of the defensive focus being funneled into the middle. I just can't see how if Ocho is healthy he doesn't at least make one play to make us remember that he's good and he actually plays on this team. Defensively, Mark Anderson has been a Godsend for us, especially in the wake of the Andre Carter injury (who would have gone to the Pro Bowl if his season wasn't cut short), Gerard Warren up the middle in the 4-3 sets, and the biggest one of all on defensive, Rob Ninkovich coming off the outside. Again, another one of those "ball hawk" types who has received zero press these past two weeks, and really, the whole season.
• MHK: While unfortunately going unnoticed in terms of national coverage, thankfully, the life and work of Myra Kraft is now being given its proper due. While everyone who is a Patriots fan knows the kind of impact that this amazing woman had on our community, even we are appreciating her efforts even more now that she has passed on. You have to understand that before 2000, it was a very interesting time to be a Patriots fan. There were rumors that the team might get moved to Hartford, and once the momentum from that started to grow, we all kind of cooled on the Krafts, which in retrospect, was an unfortunate thing to happen. Without the Kraft family, none of this happens. We are the gold standard because they are the gold standard for running an organization. Myra's work in the community is well documented now, and as we get ready for this game, we're going to see that MHK patch on the Pats' jerseys and think of her and everything she did for us...she embodies what the Patriot way is all about.

So at this point, I guess I have to make a pick, although I bet you know where this might be headed:

Your New England Patriots (-2.5) vs. The G-Men: It's a biased pick, but honestly, if you have read this far and didn't see this coming, you need to be slapped. Also, I happen to think we're going to win as well, so it may not be that biased after all...okay it is.

In addition, here are my best Prop Bets for this evening:

1. Successful 2PT Conversion (+375): In what promises to be a close game, this is a great line. Not sure how many there have been in Super Bowl history, but we've had one in each of the last two with Lance Moore two years ago vs. Indy and Antwaan Randle-El last year against Green Bay. Also, Kevin Faulk had one against the Panthers in Super Bowl 38.
2. Tie Score At Halftime/Pats Win (+1200): Again, another wildly realistic outcome, but an even bigger payout.
3. Wes Welker Receptions vs. Hakeem Nicks Receptions (-190): If you think Nicks can win this bet, then you may want to bet on him for, gulp, Super Bowl MVP (12/1).
4. Tom Brady Has More Than One TD Pass (-500): Because if he doesn't, we're probably going to lose...okay I have to stop dwelling on the negative shit here!
5. Kelly Clarkson Will Sing The National Anthem In Over 1:34 (-130): This has become the most researched non-sports prop bet of them all. People have scoured the internet and YouTube for months most likely to get some kind of read on this. From what I can gather, it's going to come down to almost a millisecond either way here. Her average is 1:38, but there was an outlier discussed from the Indy 500 when she sang it as a duet with Seal (good for Seal by the way). She had 1:34 at the World Series, 1:35 at the NBA Finals, but I have to believe a girl from Texas has football at #1, so I'm thinking somewhere in the 1:38 range...hahaha, I have absolutely no freggin' clue what I'm talking about here guys (my scouring was done on the Lincoln Journal Star by the way).
6. Kelly Clarkson Will NOT Omit A Word Or F*ck Up (-325): Christina Aguilera is a dumb bitch, Kelly Clarkson is not...questions, comments, concerns?
   
7. Wes Welker Receptions vs. LeBron James Assists (-125): Ahhh rooting for Wes and against LeBron...what's not to like?
8. Henrik Lundqvist Saves vs. Giants Points (-130): This is yet another one that I picked because if it losses, we're probably gonna lose, and since I think we'll win, I think it happens.
9. Rob Gronkowski Scores a TD (-170): Considering he averaged a TD a game, this is a great price...and what would the Super Bowl be without a Gronk spike?
10. Aaron Hernandez Scores a TD (+105): And that children is what we call hedging our bets.
11. No Player Will Be Called For An Excessive Celebration Penalty (-400): Gronk spikes and rain-makings have officially been tolerated by the No Fun League, so let the party continue (I did link this on Facebook, but I am loving "Welcome To The Gronk Party"...this is brilliant!)
    
12. The Super Bowl Will Be Decided By Exactly 3 Points (+325): We do very well when they do. Not so much 4, but 3 is our wheelhouse.
13. Boston Has The Higher Local TV Rating (-7) Than New York (-130): Quite simply, they have more people who care less about sports...so there you go. Furthermore, I've been to NYC, and it's such a Jets town. Oh there are a bunch of Giants fans there, but it's a Jets town. Having said that, even if you're a Jets fan, it's going to be tough to pass up watching the Super Bowl. However, I think I speak for everyone when I say that New York and everyone from there can go fornicate themselves with an iron stick.

YEEAAAAHHHHHH BUDDY. It's 12:00. Let's get our drink on New England. It's Super Bowl Time. YO SOY FIESTA BABY!!! GO PATS!!!...And I'm out like that!

Peace,

~Mell-o

So I Talk To My NFL Diary (Championship Round)

"Bobbin' and weavin' and let the good get even
C'mon down and welcome to the terrordome."

Saturday, 11:18: Man I thought I was pumped up last week. Haha, it's time to get back to that Super Bowl boys! Seriously, we are feeling it up here for two reasons. 1.) There are few teams left that we have not got vengeance on, and those would be the Ravens and the G-Men...that alone is enough right there, but then there's the fact that 2.) this team, despite having bad D stats and all that good stuff, has been on fire for the past wo months, and it could be argued that the current offense is even better than the one we had in 2007.

The Ravens have shown that they have a formidable defense. That's pretty much the most obvious observation you can make about this team, but let's face it, they are the only chance for the Ravens tomorrow. They are going to need all on them to stop the offensive freight train that we have been pummeling opponents with for the last three months. Clearly the focus will continue to be up the middle of the field for the offense. Ed Reed, who is one of the best safeties in the history of the game (Bill refers to him as "the greatest free safety in the history of the league"), but his game is really based on deflecting/catching the deep ball, something the Pats do not nearly as much as they did in the last playoff encounter, or really for the entire decade of dominance. Instead, short passes have burned opposing D's, and if one or two of the members of WHONK is getting doubled, you're going to get burned by the others.

I was watching "AFC Playbook" on NFL Network this morning, because I was pretty sure the Pats game was going to be focused on big time being as it's the only AFC game left this year. Anyway, they ran an interesting piece about the effect that Ray Rice could potentially have. It's no secret that he is their biggest weapon, and in the last two meetings, he's had over 100 yards on the ground. Knowing our "bend, don't break" defensive philosophy, Rice could be close to that in this game, but what was shown was the Pats' ability to limit his yards catching balls out of the backfield. By having Brandon Spikes and Patrick Chung back, we have means for stopping the flow over the middle. They aren't all-pros (yet), but it cannot be emphasized how much they both mean to this D.

I understand Baltimore's got a great team, but I'm taking my chances making Joe Flacco try and beat us, because ultimately, he's going to have to try and keep pace with the Pats' scoring. We likely won't get 45 like last week, but I'll be stunned if we're not right around 25-30 at least, even against such a good defense. What tends to get overlooked when people talk about the divisional playoff game when we got blown out was that Wes got hurt in the final game of the year, and the starting receivers that day were Moss, Edelman, and Sam Aiken. Nothing against those guys, but the lineup of Welker, Gronk, Hernandez, Branch, and the Ocho (yes, that guy) puts them to absolute shame. All I see is an offense that is firing on all cylinders and a defense that is looking to prove themselves, mostly in terms of shutting Rice down.

New England (-7) vs. Baltimore: I will say this: Flacco has a tremendous record in road playoff games (4-1 in non-Pittsburgh games, who he's lost to twice at Heinz), but played fairly shitty in basically all of them (with their blowout of the Chiefs being the exception). He's going to need a monster game ti pull this off, but again, the Ravens have never played against all these weapons,mand while they will put pressure on Tom, he has too many checkdowns up the middlenfor that to work like it has in the past.

The G-MEN (+3) vs. San Fran: I'm not even getting into the stats of it, but more like attempting to reach back to the past to find the answers to this game. So the Niners are coming off a game that was eerily similar to the T.O. catch game (i.e. The Catch II), right down to the crying part. In '98 when that happened, the Niners lost their next game. The G-Men are looking like the road warriors that they were in '07, where they of course won the whole thing. I'll give the Niners all the credit in the world if they can somehow pull this one out because I don't know how they would have anything left after that game last week (in all honesty, the Niners/Saints game is up there with The Music City Miracle and Pats/Panthers in terms of the greatest playoff game I've ever seen).

Alright guys, time to get this party started! Haha, I'm actually finishing this up on Sunday morning (sorry about not time-stamping it...it's 11:00 if you must know), so the excitement is really at a fever pitch right now. I'm pumped. Let's do this. GO PATS!!! Peace.

~Mell-o

So I Talk To My NFL Diary (Divisional Round)

"Freak to the funk that no one else is bringing."

Friday, 2:31: So pumped about tomorrow that I couldn't even wait to get this one in. You're probably aware that Tim Tebow will be playing tomorrow night, but it seems like the rest is completely irrelevant. I just want to say thanks to every media outlet for playing the Tebow angle up...again. That really helped the first time around, and I'm hoping for similar results tomorrow.

As for what to expect: Tim Tebow is a gifted athlete, a captivating figure, and a spark plug for football in Denver and the league en general...however, that is not going to matter a whole lot tomorrow in Foxboro. Let me set the mood for you.

The past two seasons, the Pats have been knocked out of the playoffs in their first game. This season, Brady has been playing with that "pissed off, I'm going to light you up" look in his eye more often than not. Expect similar results tomorrow night. As much as Tebow has the desire to win, no one has it more than Tom when he's in the zone. That alone should be a terrifying warning to Denver and Tebow jumkies, but it gets worse (for them...really great for us).

The game is also going to showcase a lot of personalities not present at the last meeting. You may recall Andre Carter actually got injured early on in the first Pats/Denver game, but let's also not forget that Patrick Chung, Brandon Spikes, and Sebastian Vollmer were also not involved. With all three, they will have a big effect on the things Denver loves to do: Rush the ball and rush the passer. While Dane Fletcher had a great season, Spikes is a presence. Comboing him and Mayo will solidify the middle, right where Tebow and Co. do their damage.

Patrick Chung is one of the best hitters in the game. He really is cut from a Rodney Harrison-like cloth. The Pats were playing their safeties way back in their first encounter. While they will likely show the same look this week (the 80 yard TD at the end of the Steelers game was a nice reminder that this team has big play making abilities), Chung has shown the ability to get up to the line as quick as anyone in the league at the free safety position.

Vollmer adds more depth to a line that actually did quite well this season. Him and Matty Light will likely be the starting tackles with Nate Solder serving in spot duty. Denver will be coming with Dumervil and Von Miller all night long. Not saying they won't be able to get a few shots in, but it's great to finally be playing with a full deck on the exterior to at least attempt to stop the pass rush.

The Josh McDaniels angle is really not being played up at all, which I find to be a bit surprising, but in any event, he's back in the fold, which just makes our offense that much better. Not saying that he is going to somehow be able to blueprint everything that Denver will do (he coached there two years ago and drafted Tebow and DeMaryius Thomas...you're welcome for that Denver by the way), but his presence adds another element that we probably didn't even need, but gladly accept.

Denver has one chance, and that's if the Pats just don't show up. Otherwise, there is no way this game will not get ugly...like really ugly. The Tebow phenomenon could not have picked up at a better time. The Pats are poised to piggyback off of this again and jump start the playoffs much like it did the regular season for us. I think Denver has a solid team, a great running game, and obviously a QB whose future potential is limitless...but I just don't see it...call me biased (I am), but I see domination coming.

New England (-13.5) vs. Denver: Apparently Vegas feels likewise.

San Fran (+4) vs. New Orleans: The splits are loaded in the Niners favor, plus it seems like you can't find anyone even willing to entertain the possibility of San Fran winning this game. We're about to find out what this defense is made of tomorrow.

Baltimore (-7.5) vs. Houston: Andre Johnson was not in the first matchup when the Ravens won handily. He's back, but I don't see that being able to compensate for T.J. Yates' inexperience in playoff conditions. The running attack was held in check the last time around for Houston, and while the Texans have had a good attack against the opposing ground game, Ray Rice should carve this team up yet again (over 160 yards from srimmage last outing).

The G-MEN (+7.5) vs. The Pack: I can't help but think the G-Men will at the very least keep it close on Sunday. They have been the hottest team on the NFL leading into the playoffs. The Pack may get a huge boost from the returns of both Greg Jennings and A.J. Hawk, but look for the Giants to expose that secondary that was 31st in the league against the pass. Green Bay is more than capable of running it up on anyone, but they have shown the affinity for outlasting the good teams instead of blowing them out.

Can't wait for tomorrow! LET'S GO PATS!!!

Peace.

~Mell-o

So I Talk To My NFL Diary (Wild Card Weekend...You Know, The One The Pats Aren't Playing 'Cause We're Nasty And What Not)

"Get the duck boats ready, the Cup is coming home."

10:48: It's the start of the NFL playoffs, and yet all I really care about is the defending Stanley Cup champs. Huge game today not only because it's a rematch of the finals from last year, but Vancouver, as much as we do not like them (just watched Game 7 looped to the radio call...man those cheap shots at the end of the game are fueling the fire), are one of the best teams in the game, so a nice barometer, and an even better excuse to stumble down memory lane today. I love afternoon hockey! Okay, so to keep appearances, the picks...

Houston (-4) vs. Cincy: So the line and the over/under (38), are exactly what I would predict the final score to be (Houston 21, Cincy 17). Basically, it would be wise to not bet on this game, and you're gonna have to hope there is something good on TV elsewhere because I'm getting bored just thinking about this game. Houston has two premiere backs (Ben Tate is a backup, and rushed for 100 yards twice coming off the bench while Arian Foster also ran for 100...that is a joke!), and while the QB play of T.J. Yates may be brought into question, you can't deny the importance of a player like Andre Johnson being back in the fold. The Texans also feature Jonathan Joseph (all-pro Gamecock!), who shut down A.J. Green, Cincy's lone equalizer, the first time around. Tough team to beat at home, and also Foster had a week to rest. He might be tearing shit up from the jump.

New Orleans (-10) vs. Detroit: "New Orleans, at home, at night" has been the mantra all year long, and it is no different today. If I had to say anything betting wise, I would say bet the under. Sounds insane considering who is playing, but I see an epic beatdown by the Saints here based on the Lions being too tight, and the Saints, coming off of "The Run" and the apparent game that subsequently went with it in Seattle last year. If you think like 42-10 or even a more conservative 35-21, it's still under.

Sunday:

10:37: I'm again trying to use my iPad to type this, and again, it erased everything I just wrote (apparently I underestimated the "undo" button in this scenario). So while I restrain myself from throwing this increasingly evil machine on the ground, let's get to Sunday's picks...

By the way, went through every week and tabulated my win % at about 55 for the year. While that may not sound like much, consider that if you go 60% for a season, you are a god. So, five ticks away from being a fake gambling god?...I'll take it!

THE G-MEN (-3) vs. The ATL: The lone bright spot going into this game for the Falcons would be that their corners are good enough to slow down at least two of the Giants' receivers...but therein lies the problem. With Nicks, Cruz, and Manningham, someone is going to be open. If that isn't bad enough, the Giants also have a big-time running game that has only been getting better lately. The Falcons have a great passing attack and one of the best runners in the league in Michael Turner, but they are simply outmatched in basically every facet of the game.

Denver (+9) vs. Pittsburgh: While Isaac Redman has certainly proved his worth when called upon this year, the loss of Rashard Mendenhall cannot be overlooked. It is absolutely huge for them. In addition, no Ryan Clark, and Big Ben on one leg...this sounds like a team that can be taken advantage of by an agressive, athletic team. Enter Denver, with you know who at QB, a fantastic running game, and a super-aggressive defense that should be all over Ben (also, no Maurkice Pouncey today either, another huge blow). Tebow has been horrendous in the cold weather, but quite frankly, he needs to do just enough today to win. I'm thinking around a 13-10 game, so if Tebow can limit mistakes and they stick to keeping the ball on the ground, they may have enough to actually take this.

Whoever wins is going to get smashed in Foxboro next week anyway, so good luck with all that. Have a good rest of you weekend everyone. Peace.

~Mell-o

So I Talk To My NFL Diary (Week 17, 2011)

"We can break through
Though torn in two
We can be one."

9:30: Happy New Years everyone! What is happening? I just spent a half an hour typing on my iPad, and it erased everything I wrote...no warning, nothing. You know I got it for Christmas, and honestly, I keep wondering if I should have just asked for a new laptop (currently using the one I had in college, which was now, unfortunately, kind of a long time ago, and the one I bought last year has a busted hinge and is totally infected with viruses because my roommate does not understand the power of softcore Cinemax porn and chooses to go on XXX sites on my laptop, then does a horrendous job trying to cover it up...it's like dude, at least erase the history...or not have it on the site when I open up the lid!). I mean I think the technology is great, and the apps and the potential it has is big, but right now, all I wanna do is type, download illegal music, and bootleg movies and TV shows, and I guess I can't do any of those things on there.

Anyway, the jist of what I was saying is that the Pats are probably going to rope-a-dope Ryan Fitzpatrick today, much like they did against Matt Moore last week, and really, any non-elite QB that we play. Lots of soft zone to start the game to identify the targets, routes, and tendencies, and then once the 2nd quarter, or perhaps maybe even later into the 2nd half, the adjustments come in...and nobody adjusts better than the Pats. Spiller has been huge for them (111 yards and a score in the Tim Tebow beatdown of last week), and expect him to have an equally big game today. Remember though, Reggie Bush was torching us last week, but ultimately, he did not win the game for them...and why? We just didn't allow the big play to happen on the ground. Credit the D-Line and our MLBs (Jerod and Dane Fletcher) for containing Bush.

At risking the chance of repeating myself, here's how it is: The Pats are not losing this game because we just don't lose to the same team twice, and furthermore, that #1 seed is looking real shiny, especially because there is a very good chance we would avoid having to play Baltimore or Pittsburgh until the AFC Championship game, which, God-willing, would be at Gillette Stadium. Tom Brady is going to play probably more than he should today (at least 3 1/2 quarters) and, as we keep seeing over and over again, no one can stop this offense right now. Some teams have multiple weapons, and then there are teams like the Pats, Green Bay, and New Orleans who have three or four elite playmakers, making it impossible to double one or two without leaving someone really, really good open.

Ohhhhhh man is it going to be Welker time today. 217 yards on 16 receptions in the first meeting, which of course was a loss, but even so...217 yards! Lots of Wes, and I would be shocked if Gronk was not brought back in as the focal point of the offense, especially down by paydirt (do I owe James Brown any money for saying "paydirt" by the way?). I mean...how in the world are they going to stop us?

Alright, so let's dive right into it. No diary today. SBS (Social Boston Sports for those of you not in the know) is having some kind of brunch shindig for the game, so I'll be hitting that up. I'm not going to lie, I didn't even go out last night. I watched Lethal Weapon 3, passed out because I was really tired (drunk...well really a combination of the two...I was getting trunked up!), and I woke up at 11:45, went to my roof to watch the fireworks, and that was pretty much it...not bad, but anyway, I have energy and I'm feeling way better than I probably should, so I'm predicting rowdiness today.

It's about to get Rowdy Roddy Piper in this bitch!

Your New England Patriots (-10.5) vs. Buffalo: Thank you Miami for backdoor covering last week and making this spread lower than the 20 it probably would have been had we kept our 10 point lead. Also, with concerns about Brady, that also can explain why this is not a 2-TD spread. Anyway, you know we're winning, so now it becomes by how much? I would think we want to get this one over with real quick so the starters can rest for a least a portion of the 4th quarter.

Philadelphia (-8) vs. Washington: The Skins are stumbling to the finish, and the Eagles are playing like they actually have something to play for, which they do not. The only real noteworthy event is Shady McCoy's attempt to track down MoJoDo for the rushing title (although down over 100 yards already, it's going to take a miracle).

Atlanta (-10) vs. Tampa: Atlanta's got really nothing left to play for than seeding, but Tampa has been just so abysmal, especially on defense this year, that I think even a 60% effort from the Falcons could result in a two TD spread here.

San Fran (-10) vs. St. Louis: The #2 seed on the line against probably the worst team in football (I wish I could say Indy, but they're running hot on a two-game winning streak putting their total wins to...2)...even if the Rams do cover this, could you really see it coming?

Minnesota (-2) vs. Chicago: No Cutler/Forte > no Adrian Peterson.

Green Bay (+6) vs. Detroit: When else are you going to be able to bet on the Pack as 'dogs? Also, I was at Foxboro when Matt Flynn took the reigns last year for this Packer offense (this game will affectionately be known forever as the "Dan Connolly run-back" game), and he's not too bad. Plus, you have to figure that even though everything is locked up, they're not going to allow Detroit to just waltz into Lambeau and steal one here right?...

Right?

Carolina (+8) vs. New Orleans: I just love how basically all year, I've been able to pick Cam Newton as an underdog and having that come through over and over again. The Saints are at home, but it's an early start, meaning the Panthers should be able to jump out to a pretty decent start. New Orleans is also playing for that first round bye, but once that Niners score gets out of hand (which I have a feeling it will), the Saints will be locked into that #3 spot regardless of what happens.

Houston (+3) vs. Tennessee: Andre Johnson is back...hopefully to stay this time. Yes, Matt Hasselbeck was brilliant last week, but Houston's defense has been near the top of the league all season, so this should speak volumes in terms of how good he really is right now.

Cincinnati (+3) vs. Baltimore: The fact that this spread hasn't wavered very much since it opened (if anything it's shading towards Cincy) tells me that I'm not the only one who thinks Cincy is feeling that playoff push right now (currently 6th, win and they're in).

Pittsburgh (-6) vs. Cleveland: Can anyone name something besides Peyton Hillis as a reason to not think the Steelers are pulling this off?

Indy (+4) vs. Jacksonville: See this is painful for me because I slammed the door on the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes a bit prematurely as the Rams continue to get smoked in basically every game they play, and Indy, who has had over a week of rest going into this game, has won two in a row. It seems like they don't want to be known as the worst team in the NFL.

Miami (-2.5) vs. Jersey: J-E-T-S suck suck suck! Hahaha, hey it's true.

Oakland (-3) vs. San Diego: The AFC West is on the line, and if that wasn't enough, it's San Diego on the road...so yeah.

Kansas City (+3) vs. Denver: Yes, I'm betting against Tebow. However, I am betting on the poetic justice that Kyle Orton, who was benched and then released by Denver so they could start said Tebow, can go back into Denver and stop their season in its tracks...that would be amazing.

Arizona (-2.5) vs. Seattle: It's okay...Kevin Kolb is not playing, so you can feel free to once again bet on the Cards.

The G-MEN (-3) vs. Dallas: I actually had Dallas at first, and I changed it not because of how bad they play in December/games that mean anything, but because of how impressed I am with the Giants' offense and their pass rush. You could argue that the two biggest breakout stars of this year play on the same (Victor Cruz and Jason Pierre-Paul).

Alright, let's get drunk...again. Yeah-ya! Hopefully 2012 treats us well. Have a great day everyone. Remember, USC/Nebraska tomorrow at 1:00.

GO COCKS!!!!...

and of course...

GO PATS!!!!

Bass in the face means peace see ya later!

~Mell-o

So I Talk To My NFL Diary (Week 16, 2011)

"Football? Football? What's a football? With unconscious will my voice squeaked out 'football'''.

11:08: Well, we are definitely having a white Christmas...eve...ehhh, close enough! Never ceases to amaze me how wacky the weather changes are here. Over the Sagamore Bridge, it was like driving through a blizzard, and over here on the Bourne Bridge side (which is approx. 15 mins. away in case you did not know), we have blue skies, sunshine...I mean sure it's still cold as shit, but it's a beautiful day outside. Anyway, wait, where were we? Oh yeah, football.

So from what I'm gathering, there is definitely some underlying tension Pats fans are having with an injury list that continues to pile up (although Patrick Chung is back today), and a Miami team that has seen somewhat of a resurgence, and has managed to keep the pieces together through a coaching change 3/4 of the way through the season (a change that occurred during a 3-1 stretch mind you). One word basically describes Reggie Bush's season...vintage. Man does he have a pop to his step that we haven't seen since his early Saints days. Miami could have potentially duped the Saints into selling low on another franchise running back, with the first being Ricky Williams.

This secondary is good, but let's not forget that Tom Brady totally had 500 yards against them in the season opener, and I know, there was a shortened offseason, minicamps, OTA, etc. Dude, 500 yards? "I don't care who you play." That is pretty damn impressive. They have no one to stop the WHONK, with Vontae Davis much more of a shutdown the outside corner than a do-anything type of corner (he's more Champ Bailey than Darelle Revis if that helps...it probably didn't), meaning that the entirety of Miami's chances to at least attempt to slow us down will have to come from pressure on Brady, and Karlos Dansby, who is a solid player, but even he can't control Welker, Hernandez, and the new face of awesome, Gronk. Denver did everything they could to stop Welker and Gronk last week, and they were successful to the most part, but they were caught napping on like four or five plays and Brady just torched them, and that's really all it takes. If Brady is Brady, we'll kill them...book it. Here's the thing: Sometimes things go awry, and it's almost dumbfounding to watch some of the throws, because it's so not Brady...and he knows it, which is why he gets super pissed when he misses a throw, or a receiver runs a wrong route...he gets a little frustrated...but I'm hoping for Christmas beatdown today...I can see it getting close at times, but I'm seeing like a 14-17 point victory here...annnndddddddd segway...

Pats (-8.5) vs. The Fins: Basically for all the reasons listed above, and the fact that Matt Moore beating us would totally be Grinching us, and I won't have it.

KC (-2.5) vs. Oakland: Ummm, so I was completely wrong about Kyle Orton! Holy shit was he good! So KC probably ends up getting a better QB in Orton than the one they started with in Matty Cassel...funny how that works out. Oh, and Carson Palmer is looking very 2010-like instead of the 2004-2008 Palmer which he showed for like a month...it's all ovaaaahhhh dude!

Denver (-2.5) vs. Buffalo: I'm not saying you should go all Gomer Pyle on yourself like in Full Metal Jacket for betting against Tebow, but yeah, betting against him is like blowing your head off in a bathroom after you just shot the dick drill sergeant who had arguably one of the top 10 scenes in movie history (which Family Guy parodied to an amazing level last week, but I couldn't find that, so here's elves cursing, enjoy!).

Tennessee (-7) vs. Jacksonville: Lots of favorites...that can't be good for me...oh well. I'm picking Tennessee this week even though they shit the bed against Indy (who in all fairness looked really good last week). Hasselbeck is inexplicably still the QB...I'm all for giving a little leeway to vets for past performance (see: Donovan McNabb this year), but there is no way you're telling me this team is better with Hasselbeck vs. Locker, especially given the energy Locker brings to this offense.

Cleveland (+11) vs. Baltimore: Yes, an underdog! Nice dude. Actually yeah, I like Cleveland with Seneca at the QB right now. No Boldin for the Ravens, so load up on Ray Rice and make Flacco beat you...that's actually been a winning strategy in the past, and after a huge game from Peyton Hillis last week, there's reason to believe he's back to 100%, or very close to it.

The G-Men (+2.5) vs. Jets: I have more faith in Eli Manning than Mark Sanchez...like way more faith...that can't be good you Rex Ryan.

Cincinnati (-4) vs. Zona: Kevin Kolb is back...so I'm picking against him obviously.

Minnesota (+7) vs. Washington: Oh man, no Roy Helu? That's a big blow to the Skins, who now will be relying on Evan Royster...and that's it. All Day, defense, and wacky shit will be key for Minny.

Carolina (-7.5) vs. Tampa: I originally had Tampa, but that team has screwed me fake-gambling wise and fantasy-wise all freggin' year, so scccaaaareeeeewwww them (that's that Christmas spirit I'm talking about!)

Pittsburgh (-10) vs. St. Louis: Really mad at myself for going w/ the Steelers last week. Clearly playing the Niners in a primetime situation in their house is not the ideal situation to be in. Having said that, the Rams are just dreadful, and have amazingly got themselves back into the Luck sweepstakes by being terrible and having Indy win their first game last week.

Detroit (-2.5) vs. San Diego: This move is purely based on the amazing splits of just how well the Chargers do at home and how hopelessly awful they are on the road. This is a weird 4:00 game because it features a Cali team not playing in Cali...and in Detroit of all places.

I'd like to use this space to say that Ndomakung Suh is a total thug...but he's a tremendous football player.

Seattle (+3) vs. San Fran: Free the beast!!! Plus, Seattle at home, San Fran on a short week...yeah I'm all about it.

Philly (+1) vs. Dallas: After watching them last week, I've convinced myself that the Eagles "are who we thought they were!!!" This is the team that was supposed to dominate this division from the jump. Also, no DeMarco, no Felix Jones...who is going to run the ball for them? Sammy Morris? I mean I love the guy, but not as THE guy.

Green Bay (-insert any number lower than 30 here) vs. Chicago: The spread is actually -11, but I'm predicting a humungous bounce back from the Pack tonight...is there a better matchup to play on Christmas Eve than this? I think not.

New Orleans (-7) vs. Atlanta: New Orleans, at home, at night...wait, why do they keep getting all these primetime games at home? Damn...Drew Brees should get 6,000 yards the way this schedule is breaking for them. No bueno for our first round pick we're getting for them though.

12:53: Hopefully I'll be staying on this at least until the Chinese food gets here and I'm watching A Christmas Story (Chinese food on Christmas Eve is absolutely amazing by the way). Merry Christmas everyone! LET'S GO PATS!!! SQUISH THE FISH!!!

1:03: Starting temp. in Foxboro: 31 degrees. Starting temp. in Buffalo: 35 degrees...is it me or is that the strangest freggin' thing you've ever seen?

1:05: Reggie Bush has been freakishly effective so far. Apparently there's a huge mismatch on Shaun Ellis' side, so that could be a developing story. Eaaarrrrllllyyyy timeout by the 'Fins...it's RedZone time!

1:08: There's mention of how A.J. Green will be covered by "rookie phenom corner Patrick Peterson." I think Peterson has a ton of potential, but he is no phenom corner...he's a phenom return man for sure, but A.J. Green should tear it up today.

1:10: Dolphins got to the Pats' 30 all of a sudden. Devone Bess (huge in Hawaii!) makes a catch to get them to the 25. That play is now under review. Dan Fouts, who is doing color commentary, just said "why would you challenge that?...you only move the field goal back 5 yards." Ahhh, dude, if the call was wrong (it clearly was by the way), what is the point of having challenges if you don't, ummm, challenge shit? Hahaha, I mean maybe that's me.

1:15: Carpenter is good from 48. 3-0 Miami.

McGahee was ruled to have gotten a TD in Buffalo, but that's getting reviewed...and it's coming back to the half yard line. It's time, it's Tebow time!

Jets went for it on 4th down from the G-Men 35. They ran a horrible play that resulted in an incomplete pass (and one could argue a lateral that was recovered by the Giants), but the G-Men had 12 men on the field...ugggghhhhhh.

1:18: No Matt Light, no Sebastian Vollmer. We have Logan Mankins, our Pro Bowl guard, at left tackle, and Nate Solder, a rookie, at right tackle.

Woodie with two rushes for the first down, including one with Aaron Hernandez in the backfield...I'm sorry, you gotta love the Pats!

1:22: All Wes all the time. Three targets already, one catch. Jeremiah Bell just scored a sack on Brady. They've hit him three times now as well. This patchwork line is killing the franchise! Step it up boys! Big Z punts it down to the 15.

1:29: Reggie still running wild, but a bad handoff exchange, and yet another Miami timeout has us back on the momentum train.

Back-to-back Gamecock sightings with a Ryan (Wooooooooo) Succop FG. 3-3 there, and a HUGE TD to Jared Cook. 55 yarder. 10-0 Titans.

1:35: Tom is getting killed today. Miami is stacking the line repeatedly, and getting pressure through. Jason Taylor gets a sack. 3 and out after a failed pass attempt to, who else, the Dubster.

1:41: Miami goes three and out. Pats fresh off a first down after an Aaron Hernandez catch. Logan Mankins got rolled up on earlier, so he's out of the game...jeesh. I expect Miami to be blitzing, umm, all the time now.

1:43: The aforemetioned Vontae Davis breaks up a Wes Welker pass which I aforementioned would not happen...whoops. Anyway, he's good. Speaking of good, Big Z kicked the crap out of the last punt. Fish inside their own 20 to start.

1:47: Giant pass play to Brandon Marshall. McCourty had good coverage, but never turned around to see the ball. He's been getting better in recent weeks though after a really slow start this year.

Jake Long is now on the Miami sidelines...bad day to be a left tackle.

1:48: Brandon Marshall makes a TD catch in traffic. 10-0 'Fins...this is not what I had in mind at all. Hopefully this is like last week and we can get a spark going here (that would mean throw to Gronk by the way).

So I Talk To My NFL Diary Week Pats vs.Tebow (15), 2011)

"That rack was not built by ninjas."

11:08: Question: Is anyone else playing this week? I'm not really sure anyone seems to think so. Hahaha, dude, I want to know about Redskins/Giants like a thousand times more than Pats/Broncos...this is getting kinda gross how much coverage this is getting. Anyway...but yeah, it does have the feel of the biggest thing ever. Haha, but it's ALL anyone's talking about! So I'm going to be ridiculously brief in the breakdown this week.

This game will be decided in my mind in the first half. Honestly, we just need to go super-charged on offense and go up 34-0 or 34-3...otherwise, if you let this team hang around and have any chance, they are GD frightening right now...and it was probably a good call to say "GD" there given the holy ghost overtones. Tebow is terrifying, and the way to beat him is to go all Detroit Lions on them and put them out of their misery early. The problem is that everyone is throwing for 300 yards on us...could Tebow possibly do it today? Can't be definitively sure about that.

The pass rush is where the Broncos are going to try and continue to keep the energy up that this game is sure to bring to Denver (and really it has everywhere else). If any team can destroy an over-aggressive team, it's the Pats. No one has the checkdown options Tom has...actually there is no other offense in which the check downs are the focal point of the offense (outside of the epic down the field Gronkowski lobs...which are sublime). This again is another game in which the balance on offense does not have to be there. It's so cliché, but the short pass is going to be our running game in this one (hoping for a few Law Firm sightings though). No Deion Branch today...what's crazy is that Ochocinco, who has like 20 catches this year, is going to draw Champ Bailey (because no offense, he can't hang with Welker or Gronk...which is okay, few can). So their best player is on arguably our 5th or 6th option (seriously, Woodhead is ahead of Ochocinco on target looks).

Injuries are still killing us. No Chung, Spikes, or Vollmer again today...of course all of those positions are huge today, esp. Vollmer with Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil out there. Spikes and Chung are solid up the middle, but realistically, the battery of Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo up the middle is what's going to key our D. Unless I'm way off, their defense is going to be fueled by everything up the middle, which is what we do (again, they don't have Welker and Gronk...that makes a difference), and sprinkle Demaryus Thomas on medium-to-deep sideline routes. Their run game is great, but Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo, again, are great.

Tebow time could happen, but the attitude has to be demolition. It has to be "let's beat the shit out of them and not have to hear about this until the next time we play them" kind of attitude. If Tebow has any chance, their fans and the rest of America not associated with us will pull for him to do it again, because it's fun to a.) watch, and b.) pull against the Pats, which they LOVE to do if they can.

...but enough of all that, because that went on way too long...but at least it was only like three sentences about Tebow (okay maybe four now), and really that is all I'm hearing about this game...so hopefully that was semi-refreshing, well probably not to Tebow freaks (five). Okay, here's show you where to place all your fake money...

Pats (-7) vs. Denver: This is not a slam dunk by any means (I actually just erased "Denver +8"), but it can happen where we can throw up 30 points before they know what hit them...I dunno though...how have we done in like really, REALLY high-TV rated games lately? Not so hot (last big win was against the G-Men to go 16-0 in that season that I don't want to talk about). Tebow time will happen...you just want to be up by 40 when it does.

...and yes, there are other games today...I know I was shocked!!! Haha.

G-Men (-6) vs. DC: I just love when they go to Roy Hellllluuuuuuuuuu (Mrs. Doubtfire is actually on right now, how great is that)...but yeah way too much...I dunno...everything from the Giants.

Green Bay (-12) vs. KC: I wanna help you out KC, but what exactly are you showing me? Is Kyle Orton the answer to keep it close against the Packers...ahhhhh nooooooooo.

New Orleans (-7) vs. Minnesota: Again, it's like can Joe Webb keep it close against the Saints? Ahhhhhh noooooooooo. Update: Adrian Peterson will play...still can't pick 'em.

Seattle (+3.5) vs. Chicago: And I'm free...I'm free falling! Sorry to jinx Marshawn Lynch but I'm hoping for more beast mode...who doesn't like beast mode?

Buffalo (Pk) vs. Miami: Here's our 23-17 game this week...all I have to say: Thank God for RedZone.

Carolina (+4.5) vs. Houston: Why can't Andre Johnson catch a break?

Tennessee (-6.5) vs. Indy: Again, no offense Matt Hasselbeck, but I'm kind of pulling for this to be Jake Locker and the Titans -6.5 vs. Indy.

Cincinnati (-7) vs. St. Louis: This spread opened at -3.5 and moved all the way up to -7 with no injuries and really nothing notable to speak of occurring...so Vegas scccrrreeeeewwweeeddd up (I like when they're wrong).

Detroit (-3) vs. Oakland: Started at +1, now at -3...we're bringing down the house this weekend! Ndomakung Suh is back to commit more assault and battery-like plays, and the Raiders can't stop the Lions' O now back at full strength.

Jersey (-3) vs. Philly: Vick is back, but he is hobbling to the finish. The Jets made a statement against the 'Skins on the road two weeks ago, and they need this win to keep pace with us, especially since a win for us is not a lock.

Arizona (-7) vs. Cleveland: Show me 24-3.

San Diego Super Chargers (+3) vs. Baltimore: We desperately need Baltimore to lose because they currently hold the #1 spot in the AFC, and not only do we need one, but the Chargers need one because Denver is starting to run away with the division, and hopefully they will be in a position to gain a game tonight.

Pittsburgh (-3) vs. 49ers: Holy shit ESPN got a good game. This game better be worth like 1.7 billion dollars man! Hahaha. The Niners have nothing to play for, something I should have taken into account last week when they lost to the Cards...really San Fran...really? The Cardinals? This is why no one has faith in the long-term aspirations of this team (that and the Packers).

Alright, this took entirely too long. Haha, I'm getting so distracted by movies on TV right now. Mrs. Doubtfire, Donnie Brasco, Kindergarten Cop, Beverly Hills Ninja...a loaded Sunday block I must say. It's looking like a halftime of the 1:00 games journey out into the real world today, which I hear is absolutely frigid. Stay warm, drink lots. GO PATS!!!

1:22: Just sat down to a nice bowl of cereal. Now, time for a few updates. The Seahawks just unleashed the beast for a -7 gain and a 5 yard reception inside the 10 on 2nd and 3rd and goal after Johnny Knox got absolutely blown up trying to recover a fumble (he's okay...sort of). 3-0 Hawks. Update: The Bears get called for using their own players for leverage to block a kick, 1st and Goal for Seattle...UNLEASH THE BEAST!!! Marshawn Lynch with a TD in 10 straight games. 7-0 Seattle.

GB is looking wildly human against KC, with a 3-0 lead for the Chiefs and Jordy Nelson about to receive an offensive pass interference penalty.

Lance Moore is in the end zone in Minny. 7-3 Vikings.

Rex just threw his second pick of the game, and yet the Skins are still up 3-0.

1:31: C.J. Spiller with a TD to put the Bills up 7-0 in the blinding snow! Haha, I love it. Is this the first game that's had snow in it? I want to say yes. Anyway, a team from Miami playing in the snow? Yeah I'm liking that pick a lot right now.

1:33: Green Bay getting knocked around at Arrowhead...can't even begin to get into how huge of a story this could potentially be...it is probably the only thing that could take anything away from Pats/Tebow today.