Monday, December 29, 2008

See, Now That...That's What I'm Talking About

"Hey man you know, I'm really okay."

Sometimes, things kind of click. 10-4-2 ATS yesterday, and that was one of the harder weeks to predict basically because you have a bunch of teams playing backups, and the conditions were not exactly stellar for most games. So, I'm real happy with that. Here's something else that I was loving:

MLB

The Sox have come to agreements with Brad Penny and Josh Bard on one-year deals. Hmmm...I seem to recall saying that the Sox shouldn't focus on Teixeira and instead work on getting a #4 starter and help behind the plate. Someone is listening! Outstanding. So here's where the debate comes in though. First, does Brad Penny still have it? Well, that is a great question, and honestly, we're probably not going to find out until about two months into the season when he has had 8-10 starts to find out if he still has his stuff. Penny is coming off of a season where he had three trips to the DL due to tendinitis/inflammation/soreness in his right shoulder. He had an MRI done last year which showed he had developed scar tissue in the shoulder. So, I'm not sure whether or not he will have any kind of surgery done to clean it up. I would think that the Sox did their homework on the guy, and if it looks like he is going to be ready to go this season, or he's going to make the necessary measures to ensure that, then I think this is an outstanding move that will not be a financial burden if it does not work out (one-year deal worth $5 million with $3 million in incentives if he pitches 160 innings). I think the incentives clause is also a great idea because it will add motivation for Penny to do whatever is in his power to hit that 160 inning threshold. Again, he struggled last season due to the shoulder, but I think the Sox believe that he can make a full recovery and return to his '07 form (16-4, 3.03 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 208 IP in 33 starts). Bard's name should sound familiar to Sox fans. That's because he caught with the Sox for seven games before getting traded to San Diego along with Cla Meredith for Doug Mirabelli. Bard was unsuccessful at being Tim Wakefield's catcher, which is why the trade for Mirabelli was made. So, I feel like Bard is simply a move to add depth to the catching ranks, because when you look up and down the Sox' system, there isn't a whole lot of capable guys who can catch. I'm not going to say that Bard is going to be the #2 catcher for the Sox in '09, but to me, it feels like the organization is going after needs, and not just wants. Sure, they wanted Teixeira, but they needed a fourth starter, and they needed some help behind the plate, and both these moves help them in those regards. Again, I'm not going to sit here and say Brad Penny will win 20 games, and Bard will be the starting catcher and play 130 games, but again, they are addressing the team needs, not messing with the chemistry, and figuring out that it's the minor moves that go under the radar that can be as effective as a big-time signing (think about guys like Sean Casey and Mark Kotsay last year).

I know I've been pretty Red Sox heavy (big surprise), but let's switch gears for just a moment. I know there is plenty of time still to go in the Hot Stove, but let's review the good and bad that has happened so far:

Good:
  • Tampa Bay trades Edwin Jackson to Detroit for Matt Joyce: I think Jackson has hit whatever ceiling he has, and plus, with David Price thrown in the mix, Tampa had six starters, and Jackson was the odd man out. Joyce is going to be the kind of fourth outfielder they were hoping Rocco Baldelli could have been (and hopefully will be with the Sox).
  • Philadelphia signs Raul Ibanez to a three-year, $31.5 million contract: Ibanez is 36, but it seems like he is continuing to get better as time progresses. He has had at least 20 homers and 100 RBIs three straight years on a bad Seattle team. He will now get Rollins and Utley hitting ahead of him in the lineup, and Howard behind him if he hits in the three-hole. That's a big time lineup. Ibanez also has hit .280+ eight straight years.
  • Chicago trades Jose Ceda to Florida for Kevin Gregg: This one went under the radar after the two mega-trades the Mets pulled off for relief pitching. The Cubs are not completely sold on Marmol as their closer, so having Gregg provides a Plan B in case things break down.
  • Oakland trades Houston Street, Greg Smith, and Carlos Gonzalez to Colorado for Matt Holliday: To me, this goes from "good" to "great" if the A's at least attempt to sign Holliday to a long-term deal. Right now, on the outside, it looks like the A's are getting Holliday as a rental player for the '09 season with his impending free agent status after this year. Even so, it's a great move. The A's have no power, and considering that the AL West is going to be a lot more open with the losses to the Angels, this could be a time to sneak into the mix for the division.
  • Baltimore trades Ramon Hernandez to Cincinnati for Ryan Freel and two minor leaguers: I think this move works for both teams. Cincy gets Hernandez in a contract year, like Holliday, so it's expected that he will produce some real nice numbers in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Freel adds speed to the O's, and with the departure of Hernandez, it clears the way for Matt Wieters (think Joe Mauer with 30+ home run power), who will be major-league ready as soon as May or June. Evan Longoria last year is a perfect example of a phenom making an immediate impact on their team...expect the same kind of things from Wieters...he's that good.
Bad:
  • New York Yankees sign CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett to gigantic long-term deals that they will never be able to live up to: Well, I guess that was self-explanatory.
  • New York Mets sign Francisco Rodriguez to a three year, $37 million deal, then involve themselves im a three team, 12 player trade to get J.J. Putz: Now this, in theory, sounds like a good idea. First, they get a guy who saved 65 games last year, and then they add another closer to be the set-up guy. Sounds good, but I can already tell you how this will go down. Barring a huge turn of events, K-Rod is going to blow a couple of saves. It may not happen immediately, but he's not perfect, and when those blown saves start adding up, I'm thinking the momentum to have Putz be the ninth-inning guy will increase, which will lead to tension, media scrutiny, etc. If they had gotten either K-Rod or Putz, that would have perhaps worked out, but getting both? As the Yankees have proven, fantasy baseball does not work in the real game. Also, with this trade, they shipped three relievers out, including Aaron Heilman. I'm not sold on this one at all.
  • Cleveland signs Kerry Wood to a two-year, $20 million contract: There's nothing like a team getting rid of one guy and having their fan base completely hate the guy, and then having the team get the exact same kind of player the next year (see: Yankees getting Carl Pavano off the books and then getting A.J. Burnett). After "suffering" through Joe Borowski (suffering in quotes because he did lead the AL in saves one year, but he was wildly inconsistent), they go get Kerry Wood, a guy who cannot stay healthy and has been on the DL in each of the past five seasons.
So, not too many bad things. Teams, for the most part, are smartening up. This is a good thing...it shows progress...I think. Oh, speaking of something completely unrelated to that, here are the odds to win the World Series next year:

MLB TEAMS
WORLD SERIES ODDS OPEN
WORLD SERIES ODDS CURRENT ODDS TO WIN LEAGUE
ARIZONA D-BACKS 25/1 30/1
11/1
ATLANTA BRAVES 60/1 40/1
20/1
BALTIMORE ORIOLES 100/1 100/1 50/1
BOSTON RED SOX 6/1 8/1
3/1
CHICAGO CUBS 8/1 7/1
7/2
CHICAGO WHITE SOX 25/1 25/1 11/1
CINCINNATI REDS 40/1 40/1 15/1
CLEVELAND INDIANS 15/1 25/1
11/1
COLORADO ROCKIES 40/1 50/1
17/1
DETROIT TIGERS 15/1 25/1
11/1
FLORIDA MARLINS 30/1 40/1 15/1
HOUSTON ASTROS 40/1 40/1
15/1
KANSAS CITY ROYALS 100/1 100/1 50/1
LOS ANGELES ANGELS 10/1 10/1
5/1
LOS ANGELES DODGERS 15/1

18/1

7/1

MILWAUKEE BREWERS 30/1 40/1
17/1
MINNESOTA TWINS 25/1 25/1 10/1
NEW YORK METS 12/1 7/1
3/1
NEW YORK YANKEES 6/1 3/1
7/4
OAKLAND ATHLETICS 60/1 60/1 35/1
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES 10/1 10/1
5/1
PITTSBURGH PIRATES 100/1 100/1 40/1
SAN DIEGO PADRES 100/1 100/1 40/1
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 40/1 40/1
12/1
SEATTLE MARINERS 100/1 100/1 50/1
ST LOUIS CARDINALS 40/1 40/1 15/1
TAMPA BAY RAYS 10/1 8/1
5/1
TEXAS RANGERS 60/1 60/1 35/1
TORONTO BLUE JAYS 30/1 40/1
22/1
WASHINGTON NATIONALS 100/1 100/1 50/1

NFL

After yesterday, you knew heads were going to roll across the league, and it started early. Three coaches were fired. Two I definitely saw coming (Romeo and Rod Marinelli), while the third I thought was a possibility, but was 50/50 in thinking it would actually happen (Mangini). I mean Romeo...I know that the team let you down, but still, you can't look like Han Solo when he was frozen in carbonite week in and week out. It really looked like someone had stolen is soul, and he was just a shell of a person. Maybe a little more energy was needed, especially for a team who had a landslide victory in terms of total team drops. Rod Marinelli had to go. It's never happened before, so I'm not quite sure what the winless season protocol is, but I'm pretty sure you have to clean house once that goes down. Mangini was a classic example of someone who has had prior success, but in major sports, it is very much a "what have you done for me lately" kind of setting, and losing four of the last five probably didn't help his cause. So, with three openings available, and perhaps others to follow (I can't see Haslett staying on in St. Louis, Herm Edwards in KC...I don't know if we can build on this, Tom Cable in Oakland, also, Marvin Lewis from Cincy may go), it will be a fast and furious offseason for coaches. Most likely, you're going to be looking at coordinators filling those spots (Rex Ryan from Baltimore, Steve Spagnuolo from the Giants, and yes, Josh McDaniels from the Pats), and then, you're going to get people getting promoted down the line, and on and on it will go. I think the free agent market will be extremely interesting this year, as I think the draft is not going to provide the kind of answers that most of these lower-level teams are looking for. You never know what kind salary cap "casualties" there will be. Rumors of Torry Holt and Chad Johnson, plus many others, have already been mentioned in getting released. If these teams get the right football minds in place, and clear up some cap room, there could be another Miami Dolphin-like turnaround next season.

The big story in New England (again, not the Bruins or Celtics) is what the Pats are going to do with Matt Cassel next season. The two obvious things that could happen are that he walks in free agency, or the Pats franchise him ($11 million seems to be the consensus figure). Again, I think it's way too early to be talking about this, you know, considering the season ended yesterday, but I have to throw in my two cents because it's going to be an ongoing story for months to come, so I might as well lay out my opinion before this gets completely over-saturated. The Patriots still have the best quarterback in the league (which apparently people have forgotten about), and this is all determined by the health of Tom Brady. I love how so many people are quick to simply release Brady. Really? The last seven years didn't mean anything? I understand that it is a costly proposition to keep him around, but you can't tell me, right now, that Matt Cassel is better than Tom Brady. Not to take anything away from Cassel, as he was brilliant this season, but he simply is not on Tom Brady's level...yet. Now will he get there eventually? Perhaps, but the Pats are going to be $25-30 million under the cap once free agency rolls around. I understand that they have needs that they have to fill (right side of the O-Line, secondary), but it is possible for the Pats to make a sacrifice for one year and keep Cassel if Brady cannot go on Week 1. However, keep this in mind: They have until the middle of July to decide all this. Let me say that again...they have until the middle of July to decide all this! I understand that everyone needs a story, but seriously, let this one play out. Peter King says Brady is ahead of schedule, Tom Curran says he's behind...you know what, let's start hearing about whether or not Brady can go in April, right around the draft. If he's not close by April or May, then yes, that will be an interesting situation, but can I at least get through the new year without having to hear about the future of Matt Cassel?

It's the end of the season, so here are my final picks for MVP:

Fave Five MVP Candidates:
  1. Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis
  2. Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta
  3. Chad Pennington, QB, Miami
  4. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina
  5. Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego
NHL

I know it's a little early, but I am so psyched about the New Year's Day game between Detroit and Chicago at Wrigley Field this year. I think the idea of having one outdoor game a year is the one of the best ideas the NHL has ever come up with. Last year's game was an absolute classic up at the Ralph in Buffalo between the Sabres and the Penguins. It snowed, goalies were wearing winter hats, and it ended in a shootout with the game's biggest star, Sidney Crosby, scoring the winning goal. Fantastic stuff. 2010's game will be in the new Yankee Stadium...it makes you wonder about when a game is going to happen at Fenway. I mean wouldn't that be the absolute ultimate. I can't even begin to think how tough a ticket that will be to get (by the way, it's about $250 a ticket for this year's game). I just wanted to throw that out there. I definitely will be taking more time in the new year to further break down the NHL, something, outside of gushing about the Bruins, I really haven't done.

Here's what to watch for this week:

Wednesday:
  • Armed Forces Bowl: Houston vs. Air Force (12:00, ESPN)
  • Sun Bowl: Oregon State vs. Pittsburgh (2:00, CBS)
  • Music City Bowl: BC vs. Vanderbilt (3:30, ESPN)
  • Insight Bowl: Kansas vs. Minnesota (6:00, NFL Network)
  • Chick-Fil-A Bowl: LSU vs. Georgia Tech (7:30, ESPN)
Thursday:
  • Outback Bowl: USC vs. Iowa (11:00, ESPN)
  • Capital One Bowl: Georgia vs. Michigan State (1:00, ABC)
  • Gator Bowl: Nebraska vs. Clemson (1:00, CBS)
  • Red Wings vs. Blackhawks (Winter Classic) (1:00, NBC)
  • Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. Southern Cal (4:30, ABC)
  • Penguins vs. Bruins (7:00, NESN)
  • Orange Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech (8:30, FOX)
Friday:
  • Cotton Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech (2:00, FOX)
  • Liberty Bowl: Kentucky vs. East Carolina (5:00, ESPN)
  • Wizards vs. Celtics (7:30, CSN New England)
  • Sugar Bowl: Utah vs. Alabama (8:00, FOX)
Saturday:
  • International Bowl: Buffalo vs. UConn (12:00, ESPN)
  • Sabres vs. Bruins (1:00, NESN)
  • Falcons vs. Cardinals (4:30, NBC)
  • Colts vs. Chargers (8:00, NBC)
Sunday:
  • Ravens vs. Dolphins (1:00, CBS)
  • Eagles vs. Vikings (4:30, FOX)
  • Celtics vs. Knicks (6:00, NBA TV/CSN New England)


Again, Happy New Year to everyone. Have a good one, and definitely have a safe one too. I know that I've had a couple of close calls on New Year's that were not so safe (ending up at the bottom of a 20-foot hill in a foot of snow with a four-cylinder truck for example, and that barely made the top 5 unsafe things about that night). Most likely, I won't be working at eight in the morning the next day either, so...you know...bonus. See you in 2009! Peace.

~Mell-o

Sunday, December 28, 2008

Bowl Preview Part III (BCS Edition)

"Well I travel at the speed of a reborn man."

This is what happens when you put your season in Brett Favre's hands...he chokes it away. What an unbelievably devastating way to get knocked out of the playoffs. First, the Pats, despite having absolutely no answer for Fred Jackson, recorded their first shutout in two years, winning 13-0 at the Ralph and what had to have been one of the most bizarre games of all time (at one point, they needed to literally lasso the uprights to straighten them out...that's how bad the wind was). The Jets lost, Welker lost the receptions title to Andre Johnson because of the conditions, Chelsea blew a chance to pick up two points by allowing a goal in the 90th minute in their match against Fulham this morning...at least the Bruins won right? So, while I'm waiting for the Denver/San Diego divisional "clash" to kick off, I figured I would try and get the BCS preview out of the way so I can ramble about God knows what tomorrow.

Thursday, January 1

Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. Southern Cal (4:30, ABC)

Head to Head
Matchup Nittany Lions Offense Trojans Defense

Points/Game 40.2 (12) 7.8 (1)
Rush Yards/Game 211.6 (27) 83.3 (10)
Pass Yards/Game 240.6 (68) 122.8 (3)
Total Yards/Game 452.2 (23) 206.1 (1)
Third Down Pct. 52.8% (6) 26.6% (3)
Fourth Down Pct. 45.5% (129) 38.5% (196)
Sacks 31 (204) 28 (66)
Sack Yards -193 (186) -213 (40)
Rushing TDs 35 (15) 7 (9)
Passing TDs 22 (72) 4 (1)
Carries/Game 482 (61) 387 (46)
Yards/Carry 5.3 (20) 2.6 (8)
Completion Pct. 58.7% (129) 51.6% (20)
Yards/Pass Attempt 8.3 (29) 4.3 (1)
Pass Rating 147.4 (34) 81.5 (1)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 46.1 18.5

Matchup Nittany Lions Defense Trojans Offense

Points/Game 12.4 (4) 37.5 (16)
Rush Yards/Game 95.9 (22) 206.0 (32)
Pass Yards/Game 168.0 (34) 247.1 (54)
Total Yards/Game 263.9 (12) 453.1 (22)
Third Down Pct. 30.8% (18) 45.5% (41)
Fourth Down Pct. 54.5% (178) 61.1% (188)
Sacks 12 (219) 17 (62)
Sack Yards -93 (210) -109 (58)
Rushing TDs 11 (32) 26 (47)
Passing TDs 6 (2) 32 (16)
Carries/Game 395 (52) 468 (77)
Yards/Carry 2.9 (21) 5.3 (22)
Completion Pct. 54.1% (99) 64.0% (39)
Yards/Pass Attempt 5.5 (11) 8.4 (25)
Pass Rating 97.3 (9) 157.7 (20)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 42 32.7

Simulations:
  • Final Score: Southern Cal 30, Penn State 20
  • Penn State: Clark: 105 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Royster: 14 rushes, 51 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs
  • Southern Cal: Sanchez: 201 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; McKnight/Johnson/Gable: 31 rushes, 134 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs
My Thoughts:
Do you ever have the feeling that a game could definitely come back and bite you in the backside? Well, this would be it for me. Of course, immediately, you have to take Southern Cal based on the fact that their defense is one of the most dominating ones we may have ever seen, plus their playing the game in Pasadena, where the Trojans play a bunch of their home games at. However, is this offense really good enough to take on Penn State? Don't undersell Penn State's D. They rank in the top 30 in points, rush yards, pass yards, and total yards allowed per game. I'm going to go with Southern Cal, but it's a very hesitant pick at best.

Southern Cal (-8.5)

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati (8:30, FOX)

Head to Head
Matchup Hokies Offense Bearcats Defense

Points/Game 22.2 (168) 20.2 (53)
Rush Yards/Game 167.9 (80) 104.0 (31)
Pass Yards/Game 128.2 (225) 212.1 (146)
Total Yards/Game 296.2 (211) 316.1 (51)
Third Down Pct. 37.3% (151) 29.7% (13)
Fourth Down Pct. 35.7% (191) 52.6% (89)
Sacks 31 (202) 35 (17)
Sack Yards -227 (219) -242 (18)
Rushing TDs 21 (85) 11 (33)
Passing TDs 6 (230) 18 (140)
Carries/Game 590 (16) 426 (95)
Yards/Carry 3.7 (158) 3.2 (38)
Completion Pct. 57.5% (206) 56.0% (85)
Yards/Pass Attempt 6.2 (177) 6.1 (47)
Pass Rating 108.9 (196) 113.0 (52)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 114.3 41.3

Matchup Hokies Defense Bearcats Offense

Points/Game 17.5 (20) 27.3 (95)
Rush Yards/Game 107.0 (38) 121.2 (178)
Pass Yards/Game 170.1 (36) 254.1 (44)
Total Yards/Game 277.1 (18) 375.3 (93)
Third Down Pct. 31.1% (21) 33.5% (201)
Fourth Down Pct. 33.3% (24) 42.1% (84)
Sacks 38 (15) 30 (205)
Sack Yards -209 (44) -224 (212)
Rushing TDs 12 (41) 15 (157)
Passing TDs 11 (24) 25 (40)
Carries/Game 430 (105) 434 (122)
Yards/Carry 3.2 (35) 3.6 (169)
Completion Pct. 53.2% (28) 62.4% (51)
Yards/Pass Attempt 7.1 (148) 7.5 (73)
Pass Rating 114.5 (62) 139.4 (57)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 30 81

Simulations:
  • Final Score: Cincinnati 26, Virginia Tech 21
  • Virginia Tech: Taylor: 106 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Evans/Taylor: 34 rushes, 124 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 5 sacks, 4 TOs
  • Cincinnati: Pike: 247 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Ramsey/Goebel/Pead: 30 rushes, 121 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 3 sacks, 3 TOs
My Thoughts:
Again, this is just me, but I feel like Virginia Tech got extremely lucky getting to this bowl game. They didn't have to go up against Georgia Tech, easily the best team in the conference, to make the Orange Bowl because they both play in the same division in the ACC. Instead, they faced BC, who still reverts to the Tom O'Brien strategy of losing a game of significance at the end of the year, which means going to a lesser bowl game, which means BC can keep their bowl winning streak alive. The people like VA Tech, but slightly (59%). I'm not sold on them. Again, this is one of those times where if they prove me wrong, good for them, but I feel pretty solid about Cincy.

Cincinnati (-2.5)

Friday, January 2

Sugar Bowl: Utah vs. Alabama (8:00, FOX)

Head to Head
Matchup Utes Offense Crimson Tide Offense

Points/Game 37.4 (20) 31.2 (57)
Rush Yards/Game 168.4 (78) 196.5 (41)
Pass Yards/Game 236.8 (77) 170.7 (183)
Total Yards/Game 405.3 (50) 367.2 (103)
Third Down Pct. 45.5% (42) 42.4% (73)
Fourth Down Pct. 66.7% (24) 80.0% (3)
Sacks 23 (128) 17 (63)
Sack Yards -144 (117) -125 (86)
Rushing TDs 23 (71) 32 (22)
Passing TDs 26 (33) 10 (203)
Carries/Game 475 (71) 535 (29)
Yards/Carry 4.3 (91) 4.8 (45)
Completion Pct. 67.6% (55) 58.2% (112)
Yards/Pass Attempt 7.6 (60) 7.3 (85)
Pass Rating 149.7 (29) 125.8 (121)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 43 55.7

Matchup Utes Defense Crimson Tide Offense

Points/Game 17.3 (19) 31.2 (57)
Rush Yards/Game 104.8 (33) 196.5 (41)
Pass Yards/Game 191.1 (92) 170.7 (183)
Total Yards/Game 295.9 (32) 367.2 (103)
Third Down Pct. 30.3% (16) 42.4% (73)
Fourth Down Pct. 40.0% (71) 80.0% (101)
Sacks 23 (111) 17 (63)
Sack Yards -144 (129) -125 (86)
Rushing TDs 10 (27) 32 (22)
Passing TDs 14 (69) 10 (203)
Carries/Game 382 (42) 535 (29)
Yards/Carry 3.3 (45) 4.8 (45)
Completion Pct. 54.6% (123) 58.2% (112)
Yards/Pass Attempt 6.1 (46) 7.3 (85)
Pass Rating 108.7 (36) 125.8 (121)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 40.5 60.2

Simulations:
  • Final Score: Alabama 30, Utah 19
  • Utah: Johnson: 145 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Asiata/Mack: 20 rushes, 64 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 1 sack, 3 TOs
  • Alabama: 154 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Coffee/Ingram: 30 rushes, 172 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs
My Thoughts:
I have literally scoured the internet looking for a reason that Utah will cover this...and I still have nothing. If anyone has some kind of obscure stat that they can share with me that would be favorable to Utah in this game, let me know (actually, I have found favorable stats...how about something that puts them over the top against 'Bama?).

Alabama (-10)

Monday, January 5

Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs, Texas (8:00, FOX)

Head to Head
Matchup Buckeyes Offense Longhorns Offense

Points/Game 28.2 (88) 43.9 (6)
Rush Yards/Game 191.6 (51) 176.9 (63)
Pass Yards/Game 148.1 (210) 299.5 (18)
Total Yards/Game 339.7 (148) 476.4 (10)
Third Down Pct. 43.8% (54) 57.1% (2)
Fourth Down Pct. 44.4% (133) 83.3% (2)
Sacks 26 (162) 22 (121)
Sack Yards -169 (143) -134 (104)
Rushing TDs 20 (94) 32 (23)
Passing TDs 16 (131) 34 (12)
Carries/Game 501 (44) 479 (67)
Yards/Carry 4.6 (59) 4.4 (78)
Completion Pct. 62.0% (210) 77.6% (1)
Yards/Pass Attempt 7.3 (81) 9.2 (12)
Pass Rating 140.5 (52) 180.5 (2)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 75.5 23.7

Matchup Buckeyes Defense Longhorns Offense

Points/Game 13.1 (9) 43.9 (6)
Rush Yards/Game 114.9 (47) 176.9 (63)
Pass Yards/Game 164.3 (26) 299.5 (18)
Total Yards/Game 279.3 (19) 476.4 (10)
Third Down Pct. 35.3% (64) 57.1% (2)
Fourth Down Pct. 57.1% (201) 83.3% (203)
Sacks 26 (79) 22 (121)
Sack Yards -169 (102) -134 (104)
Rushing TDs 6 (4) 32 (23)
Passing TDs 10 (16) 34 (12)
Carries/Game 377 (35) 479 (67)
Yards/Carry 3.7 (78) 4.4 (78)
Completion Pct. 55.5% (140) 77.6% (1)
Yards/Pass Attempt 5.2 (5) 9.2 (12)
Pass Rating 100.2 (19) 180.5 (2)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 38.4 32.8

Simulations:
  • Final Score: Texas 33, Ohio State 22
  • Ohio State: Pryor: 115 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Wells/Pryor: 27 rushes, 118 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 2 TOs
  • Texas: McCoy: 253 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; McCoy/Whittaker/Johnson: 27 rushes, 123 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 3 sacks, 2 TOs
My Thoughts:
I'm having a hard time getting passed the whole "Big 10 being really bad" generalization. Also, another thing I can't seem to get by is how Texas will likely want to avenge any of the BCS wrongdoings they felt were thrown at them this year (while I think they don't exist, some teams will look for anything to get up for a game). I like Pryor, and think he's a factor to change games, but Ohio State actually needs someone who puts the ball up a bunch (see Graham Harrell) and Texas would be in trouble against a team that scores a bunch. Ohio State is not that either.

Texas (-8)

Thursday, January 8

BCS Championship: Florida vs. Oklahoma (8:00, FOX)

Head to Head
Matchup Gators Offense Sooners Defense

Points/Game 45.2 (3) 24.5 (116)
Rush Yards/Game 229.8 (19) 106.0 (36)
Pass Yards/Game 212.6 (117) 253.1 (214)
Total Yards/Game 442.4 (27) 359.1 (139)
Third Down Pct. 49.3% (17) 33.3% (40)
Fourth Down Pct. 68.8% (18) 50.0% (178)
Sacks 32 (210) 40 (4)
Sack Yards -199 (190) -276 (6)
Rushing TDs 41 (5) 18 (121)
Passing TDs 31 (20) 20 (168)
Carries/Game 501 (45) 425 (92)
Yards/Carry 6.0 (7) 3.2 (36)
Completion Pct. 64.5% (147) 55.1% (69)
Yards/Pass Attempt 9.2 (11) 6.6 (91)
Pass Rating 174.4 (5) 117.2 (82)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 38.2 63.3

Matchup Gators Defense Sooners Offense

Points/Game 12.8 (6) 54.0 (1)
Rush Yards/Game 105.3 (34) 205.5 (33)
Pass Yards/Game 174.0 (46) 356.5 (4)
Total Yards/Game 279.3 (20) 562.1 (3)
Third Down Pct. 32.0% (28) 51.6% (7)
Fourth Down Pct. 36.4% (40) 57.1% (93)
Sacks 16 (190) 11 (14)
Sack Yards -104 (195) -77 (22)
Rushing TDs 9 (20) 45 (2)
Passing TDs 10 (17) 49 (1)
Carries/Game 411 (74) 560 (19)
Yards/Carry 3.3 (42) 4.8 (42)
Completion Pct. 52.0% (145) 68.1% (7)
Yards/Pass Attempt 5.5 (12) 9.7 (5)
Pass Rating 94.2 (5) 180.9 (1)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 39.7 11.5

Simulations:
  • Final Score: Florida 39, Oklahoma 37
  • Florida: 233 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT; Harvin/Demps/Rainey: 20 rushes, 151 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 2 sacks, 1 TO
  • Oklahoma: Bradford: 295 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT; Brown/Madu: 38 rushes, 160 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 2 sacks, 2 TOs
My Thoughts:
Well, I guess this is what we have been waiting for. Speaking of which, can we get rid of this whole playing the national title game a week after all the other BCS games? I understand that because, for whatever reason, they have two BCS games in one place, but come on. This is totally ridiculous to have to wait this long for this game. You know that it will be hyped beyond belief, and there will come a point when you just want them to play so you don't have to hear another "not so fast" from Lee Corso. Why not have the game in another city? Atlanta? Houston? Both of them have domes, they have both hosted Super Bowls...please tell me I'm not the first one to notice how silly this is. Oh, and the game itself...right. Well, I think it will be interesting to see what the field is like. I mean, you never know. It could be raining, which would favor Oklahoma (at least I think). I'll tell you, despite this being really cheezy, I have to go back to the Whole Tebow thing and him saying that no one will work harder than that team. Guess what? No one has. What will Oklahoma will be the long break in between games that these two have. DeMarco Murray, the standout runner for the Sooners, will be sitting this one out, which is a big loss, but they still have a comprable running game with Chris Brown. I think what it comes down to is that Florida simply has too many weapons, and it's impossible to account for all of them every play.

Florida (-3)

I know, five favorites, way to step out on a limb right? Oh well. The only 'dog I really think can win is VA Tech, and with the betting public favoring them, that makes me a little nervous. The Penn State game is kind of doing the same, but I don't know what kind of run they have in them. In any event, at times this did feel like somewhat of a burden, and due to lack of time, I didn't really have too much time to get into every game, but it's done, and I had fun doing it. Hope everyone has a safe New Year's if you don't hear from me before then. Peace.

~Mell-o

Friday, December 26, 2008

Short And Sweet

"Ludicrously speedy, or infectious with the slow-mo."

Hey everyone. This will probably be my shortest post ever. The thing about the holidays is that I actually have stuff to do, which is a pleasant change. However, it leaves me less time to get on here. So, here are my picks and a bit of an explanation. No stats, but you know where to go if you need them (Accuscore, TeamRankings.com, VegasExperts.com, FoxSports.com, ESPN).

New England vs. Buffalo (1:00, CBS)

All the playoff scenarios are not worth a darn if the Pats can't beat Buffalo. Richard Seymour likely won't go, and that's a big loss. If you've watched the Pats in the last couple of games, you have to be at least conscious of the fact that the Pats have one of the better running games in the league right now, which has taken a ton of pressure off of Cassel. Getting Sammy Morris and LaMont Jordan back healthy has given a boost to this team. I know weather had something to do with it, but I nailed the fact that the secondary had one real good game in them. 30 yards for Kurt Warner...30. Marshawn Lynch is questionable, and he got real banged up last week against Denver. Buffalo will make this game interesting...initially. I don't expect them to be able to substain the energy they will get from the kickoff.

New England (-6)

St. Louis vs. Atlanta (1:00, FOX)

The Falcons are in the playoffs after their win last week in Minnesota. They still have a ton to play for though. With some help from Carolina, Atlanta can win the NFC South and move up to #2, assuring themselves a first-round bye. It's tough for me to be completely confident that the Falcons can cover a two-touchdown spread, regardless of who it's against. I think they'll win, but surprisingly, I think this will be kind of close.

St. Louis (+14)

Kansas City vs. Cincinnati (1:00, CBS)

Yikes. Well, it's on the board, so I have to pick it. I flipped a coin a couple of times, but then I kind of forgot what team was heads and what was tails. Hmmm...I think I'm going with Cincy. They were helpful last week, while KC did what it does best: Stay in games and then find ways to lose.

Cincinnati (-3)

Detroit vs. Green Bay (1:00, FOX)

My theory on Detroit was this: They played so hard against Minnesota and Indy, and they still couldn't win. Now they're completely out of gas, and basically willing to accept their fate as the worst team in the history of the NFL. Green Bay has lost so many games in a row that I lost count. Still, they can't lose to Detroit. Seriously, there may be a cheesehead mutiny if the Packers lose this game.

Green Bay (-10)

Tennessee vs. Indianapolis (1:00, CBS)

There is a very good chance that Vince Young will play in this game. This will be very interesting to see. Will this be the rebirth of VY, or is he going to be changed forever? It was sad to see his career take a sudden detour this year. No one really knows what to expect in this game, but I feel like Indy will jump out to an early lead, which is actually not good for the Colts. They play a lot better when they are coming from behind.

Tennessee (-2.5)

New York Giants vs. Minnesota (1:00, FOX)

The Vikings have been all over the place in the last few weeks. What was odd last week was that it was not Tarvaris Jackson that cost Minnesota the game, but Adrian Peterson, who is an MVP candidate. His fumbles killed the Vikes, and Atlanta made them pay. I think that Tom Coughlin will recognize that it is possible that he will see Minnesota again in the playoffs, and play most of his guys the entire game unless they are getting smoked. However, in the end, Minnesota has way too much to play for to not win this one.

Minnesota (-6)

Carolina vs. New Orleans (1:00, FOX)

This game is huge for Carolina. A win gets them the #2 position in the NFC. With that comes home-field advantage, which Carolina desperately needs this year (8-0 at home). The Saints are locked out of the playoffs, but the role of spoiler can sometimes be motivating for teams. Carolina has actually played well in New Orleans, winning their last two at the Superdome. Again, with home field advantage on the line, this is a game Carolina has to win.

Carolina (-3)

Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh (1:00, CBS)

I know Pittsburgh will be playing most of their second string players, but even so, they are way better than anything that Cleveland has. Cleveland hasn't scored an offensive touchdown in the last five games. I would not be surprised if they put up another zero in Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh (-10)

Oakland vs. Tampa Bay (1:00, CBS)

Outside of the Super Bowl, Oakland has played Tampa extremely tough. Here's the thing: Tampa needs to win to have any chance at getting in the playoffs. That, coupled with the loss last week, should be enough motivation to get the win...but fourteen points? I'm not so sure about that.

Oakland (+13.5)

Chicago vs. Houston (1:00, FOX)

The Bears have had a nice run, but again, I still love Houston despite the fact that they were awful last week against Oakland. I've learned two things: One: A team will come out with a ton of motivation to prove their worth after losing to a really awful team. Two: A great team can have a substantially long luck streak where everything goes their way. A good team can have streak of luck, but it doesn't last nearly as long. I think Chicago is a good team, but not a great team.

Houston (-3)

Washington vs. San Francisco (4:15, FOX)

Washington had a big win last week against Philly, but I am so hesitant about picking an east coast team playing out west. However, the health of Frank Gore continues to linger, and the Niners barely got by the Rams last week.

Washington (+3)

Jacksonville vs. Baltimore (4:15, CBS)

Last week's game against Indy was indicative of how their season has gone. A game they should have won, and yet they let Indy off the hook ("We let 'em off the hook!"). The Ravens need a win to get a wild card spot, and while I think Jacksonville is a better team than their record indicates, and it is a bunch of points, I think Baltimore, coming off that huge win against Dallas, will bring their best game against the Jags.

Baltimore (-12.5)

Miami vs. New York Jets (4:15, CBS)

Just win baby.

New York (-3)

Dallas vs. Philadelphia (4:15, FOX)

Here's my problem with Philly right now: They have a really tough time stopping the intermediate passing game. The question will be if Romo has any sense to not force the ball down the field, and instead rely on Witten and Choice out of the backfield. Dallas was obviously atrocious against the run, but Brian Westbrook looked really banged up last week, and his effectiveness could be limited. What's interesting is that both teams were looking like they had turned everything around, and then last week, they both crumbled. This is another one where I really don't have any idea. I'm going with Dallas just because I think they were destined to make the playoffs since Romo got back. I mean how else can you explain every team in the running for the #6 seed losing last week after Dallas gave them all an opportunity with their loss on the Saturday prior?

Dallas (+1)

Seattle vs. Arizona (4:15, FOX)

Here's the thing: I'm not sure if it's possible to play worse than Arizona has the last two games and not expect anything out of them this week. I think Edgerrin James will return to his starting spot, and I expect something big from him. Seattle is coming off a huge win against the Jets (thank you by the way), and with all the emotions that came with the win, I think this will be a let down for them.

Arizona (-6)

Denver vs. San Diego (8:15, NBC)

No matter how you slice it, an 8-8 team is going to have a home game in the playoffs, and it will be one of these two teams. I still think Jay Cutler is an absolute phenom, but he simply does not have any running game. I mean they're down to their seventh-string running back...and I'm being completely serious when I say that...seventh-string. Denver has been just plain awful on defense this year. They have Champ Bailey back, which is helpful. The only thing is that he will likely be lined up against Chris Chambers, while the guy Rivers targets the most, Vincent Jackson, will have a huge mismatch against 'Dre Bly.

San Diego (-8)

Alright, again, I hope my results improve at least a little this week. I feel like the Cardinals. I looked good for a while, then the last two weeks, I was just terrible. So, I'm hoping for a bounce back from them...and myself this week. Happy holidays. Peace.

~Mell-o




Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Bowl Preview Part II

"Like the color when the spring is born."

So far, not so hot for the bowl game picks, but hey, I've basically been .500 with all my picks so far, why should this be any different. Here comes round two:

Tuesday, December 30

Humanitarian Bowl: Maryland vs. Nevada (4:30, ESPN)

Head to Head
Matchup Terrapins Offense Wolf Pack Defense

Points/Game 20.1 (195) 31.5 (201)
Rush Yards/Game 134.5 (146) 74.5 (6)
Pass Yards/Game 207.4 (122) 321.1 (244)
Total Yards/Game 341.9 (144) 395.6 (188)
Third Down Pct. 40.4% (110) 38.9% (127)
Fourth Down Pct. 53.3% (85) 29.6% (134)
Sacks 24 (140) 33 (26)
Sack Yards -129 (81) -241 (19)
Rushing TDs 15 (152) 14 (71)
Passing TDs 13 (168) 29 (236)
Carries/Game 396 (165) 338 (8)
Yards/Carry 4.1 (110) 2.6 (7)
Completion Pct. 57.5% (114) 53.9% (51)
Yards/Pass Attempt 6.7 (135) 8.0 (217)
Pass Rating 118.8 (156) 135.2 (178)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 92 77.9

Matchup Terrapins Defense Wolf Pack Offense

Points/Game 21.4 (69) 37.8 (14)
Rush Yards/Game 149.4 (140) 291.4 (5)
Pass Yards/Game 205.6 (127) 219.2 (97)
Total Yards/Game 355.0 (130) 510.6 (5)
Third Down Pct. 36.1% (75) 40.1% (114)
Fourth Down Pct. 55.0% (184) 50.0% (228)
Sacks 26 (75) 16 (56)
Sack Yards -190 (68) -129 (93)
Rushing TDs 11 (31) 37 (10)
Passing TDs 17 (113) 19 (90)
Carries/Game 454 (155) 560 (19)
Yards/Carry 3.9 (104) 6.2 (3)
Completion Pct. 61.6% (184) 54.2% (182)
Yards/Pass Attempt 6.5 (82) 7.1 (99)
Pass Rating 127.1 (134) 127.3 (109)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 76 51.1

Simulations:
  • Final Score: Nevada 33, Maryland 30
  • Nevada: Kaepernick: 159 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Taua/Kaepernick/Fragger: 32 rushes, 213 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 3 sacks, 4 TOs
  • Turner: 253 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; Scott: 17 rushes, 89 yards,1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs
My Thoughts:
I love a team that can just run all over teams. Nevada is my kind of team. The QB is averaging 83 yards a sim on the ground. Maryland is not too hot against the run, so there's an interesting combination. The key will be time of possession for Nevada and keeping Maryland's pass attack on the sidelines. Nevada is brutal against the pass. What's interesting is how much better Nevada plays when rested than Maryland. In the last three years, Nevada is 6-0 ATS in the last three years with a bye week and 12-5 ATS since '92. Maryland is 3-3 ATS and 11-14 ATS respectably.

Nevada (-2.5)

Texas Bowl: Western Michigan vs. Rice (8:00, NFL Network)

Head to Head
Matchup Broncos Offense Owls Defense

Points/Game 29.8 (70) 34.9 (222)
Rush Yards/Game 121.5 (176) 192.9 (208)
Pass Yards/Game 301.2 (16) 273.8 (235)
Total Yards/Game 422.7 (37) 466.8 (236)
Third Down Pct. 43.2% (64) 47.1% (227)
Fourth Down Pct. 47.4% (119) 58.3% (103)
Sacks 23 (128) 22 (126)
Sack Yards -143 (100) -192 (60)
Rushing TDs 10 (206) 24 (199)
Passing TDs 35 (10) 32 (240)
Carries/Game 339 (224) 442 (132)
Yards/Carry 4.3 (90) 5.2 (222)
Completion Pct. 66.3% (8) 57.7% (115)
Yards/Pass Attempt 7.3 (84) 7.6 (198)
Pass Rating 148.2 (33) 139.0 (198)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 62 123.7

Matchup Broncos Defense Owls Offense

Points/Game 23.8 (108) 41.6 (10)
Rush Yards/Game 140.9 (116) 144.4 (119)
Pass Yards/Game 249.4 (208) 327.8 (9)
Total Yards/Game 390.3 (180) 472.3 (11)
Third Down Pct. 40.2% (148) 49.4% (16)
Fourth Down Pct. 56.0% (192) 43.8% (38)
Sacks 15 (194) 26 (165)
Sack Yards -105 (191) -203 (195)
Rushing TDs 18 (124) 20 (96)
Passing TDs 17 (115) 44 (3)
Carries/Game 440 (126) 412 (145)
Yards/Carry 3.8 (92) 4.2 (99)
Completion Pct. 56.2% (166) 65.7% (23)
Yards/Pass Attempt 7.4 (181) 8.4 (26)
Pass Rating 126.3 (130) 164.1 (11)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 103.2 43.9

Simulations:
  • Final Score: Western Michigan 39, Rice 37
  • Western Michigan: Hiller: 336 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT; West: 17 rushes, 85 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 3 sacks, 3 TOs
  • Rice: Clement: 297 yards, 3 TDs, 1 TD; Clement/Ugokwe: 20 rushes, 92 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 4 TOs
My Thoughts:
Both teams can air the football out, and it won't be surprising to see both teams have 250-300 yards passing in this one. This one was tough because both teams are basically identical on offense and defense, with a slight edge to Western Michigan in terms of defense. Here's what did it for me: Rice will be playing a home game in Houston, and they have performed well on turf, going 7-2 ATS this season. Rice is also 4-0 ATS when the spread is +3 to -3.

Rice (-2.5)

Holiday Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Oregon (8:00, ESPN)

Head to Head
Matchup Cowboys Offense Ducks Defense

Points/Game 41.6 (9) 28.0 (160)
Rush Yards/Game 256.0 (12) 119.4 (58)
Pass Yards/Game 233.3 (82) 263.6 (227)
Total Yards/Game 489.3 (7) 383.0 (174)
Third Down Pct. 47.5% (24) 40.3% (150)
Fourth Down Pct. 76.5% (4) 41.2% (86)
Sacks 13 (19) 37 (7)
Sack Yards -73 (14) -225 (29)
Rushing TDs 35 (14) 15 (81)
Passing TDs 24 (45) 24 (211)
Carries/Game 545 (23) 466 (181)
Yards/Carry 5.6 (12) 3.1 (30)
Completion Pct. 66.2% (161) 58.1% (123)
Yards/Pass Attempt 10.2 (2) 6.6 (92)
Pass Rating 174.7 (4) 124.1 (118)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 19.6 78.5

Matchup Cowboys Defense Ducks Offense

Points/Game 26.9 (146) 41.9 (8)
Rush Yards/Game 123.8 (62) 277.8 (8)
Pass Yards/Game 268.5 (232) 200.3 (133)
Total Yards/Game 392.3 (184) 478.2 (9)
Third Down Pct. 39.6% (142) 39.1% (126)
Fourth Down Pct. 70.8% (231) 41.2% (168)
Sacks 13 (208) 18 (80)
Sack Yards -78 (223) -102 (47)
Rushing TDs 16 (93) 42 (4)
Passing TDs 27 (231) 19 (91)
Carries/Game 374 (33) 545 (24)
Yards/Carry 4.0 (121) 6.1 (4)
Completion Pct. 62.5% (244) 54.5% (178)
Yards/Pass Attempt 6.5 (85) 7.0 (105)
Pass Rating 131.0 (159) 125.7 (122)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 108.8 50.3

Simulations:
  • Final Score: Oklahoma State 41, Oregon 35
  • Oregon: Masoli: 188 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Johnson/Blount/Masoli: 31 rushes, 174 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 1 sack, 3 TOs
  • Oklahoma State: Robinson: 199 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Hunter/Toston/Robinson: 34 rushes, 207 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 1 sack, 3 TOs
My Thoughts:
Both teams love to run the ball, but I really think that Oregon simply will have no answer for the Zac Robinson/Dez Bryant combination. Okie St. is #1 in the nation in terms of yards per pass. The Cowboys also play well as a favorite, going 6-1 ATS as a favorite this season. Oregon is 1-3 in its last four bowl games, while Okie St. has won its last two.

Oklahoma State (-3)

Wednesday, December 31

Armed Forces Bowl: Houston vs. Air Force (12:00, ESPN)

Head to Head
Matchup Cougars Offense Falcons Defense

Points/Game 41.2 (11) 21.3 (65)
Rush Yards/Game 161.0 (91) 139.8 (110)
Pass Yards/Game 414.1 (2) 195.6 (105)
Total Yards/Game 575.1 (1) 335.3 (97)
Third Down Pct. 50.6% (13) 42.6% (181)
Fourth Down Pct. 50.0% (104) 47.4% (169)
Sacks 21 (97) 33 (30)
Sack Yards -139 (92) -225 (30)
Rushing TDs 20 (95) 16 (97)
Passing TDs 44 (2) 14 (73)
Carries/Game 374 (198) 468 (187)
Yards/Carry 5.2 (26) 3.6 (66)
Completion Pct. 67.4% (2) 57.6% (112)
Yards/Pass Attempt 8.6 (18) 6.9 (124)
Pass Rating 161.5 (15) 122.3 (107)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 34.9 70.6

Matchup Cougars Defense Falcons Offense

Points/Game 31.2 (194) 26.7 (105)
Rush Yards/Game 169.5 (176) 268.9 (9)
Pass Yards/Game 249.1 (206) 79.9 (241)
Total Yards/Game 418.6 (209) 348.8 (135)
Third Down Pct. 42.5% (180) 42.0% (83)
Fourth Down Pct. 26.3% (9) 55.0% (120)
Sacks 26 (78) 3 (1)
Sack Yards -187 (73) -15 (1)
Rushing TDs 20 (152) 24 (56)
Passing TDs 27 (233) 9 (215)
Carries/Game 480 (200) 710 (2)
Yards/Carry 4.2 (156) 4.5 (67)
Completion Pct. 60.8% (200) 55.0% (171)
Yards/Pass Attempt 7.5 (188) 8.0 (41)
Pass Rating 139.2 (201) 136.9 (65)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 111.6 59.6

Simulations:
  • Final Score: Houston 33, Air Force 26
  • Air Force: Jefferson: 113 yards, 1 TD; 1 INT; Clark/Newell/Lumpkin: 34 rushes, 124 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 6 sacks, 4 TOs
  • Houston: Keenum: 305 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT; Beall: 17 rushes, 79 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 1 sack, 3 TOs
My Thoughts:
Houston, once again, has a dynamic passing game, and is, surprisingly, leading the nation in total yards/game. However, you have to look at those defensive numbers in the simulations for Air Force. Six sacks? Four turnovers? That is tough to ignore. I'm factoring some other things in as well. Houston is atrocious ATS (4-7) and ATS as a favorite (2-6). Air Force is 7-4 ATS and 3-2 ATS as an underdog. Plus, they're 6-3 ATS on the grass. Did I mention it's the Armed Forces Bowl? How can you pick against a member of the Armed Forces in the Armed Forces Bowl?

Air Force (+4)

Sun Bowl: Oregon State vs. Pittsburgh (2:00, CBS)

Head to Head
Matchup Beavers Offense Panthers Defense

Points/Game 32.8 (44) 23.0 (94)
Rush Yards/Game 164.6 (89) 127.8 (77)
Pass Yards/Game 253.7 (44) 193.0 (100)
Total Yards/Game 418.3 (39) 320.8 (64)
Third Down Pct. 41.6% (91) 35.9% (71)
Fourth Down Pct. 60.0% (53) 38.9% (236)
Sacks 34 (222) 28 (64)
Sack Yards -252 (232) -183 (72)
Rushing TDs 21 (85) 14 (68)
Passing TDs 25 (38) 19 (154)
Carries/Game 457 (87) 421 (92)
Yards/Carry 4.3 (91) 3.6 (59)
Completion Pct. 61.5% (59) 55.0% (68)
Yards/Pass Attempt 7.5 (71) 6.6 (90)
Pass Rating 138.6 (61) 119.9 (94)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 59.4 63.8

Matchup Beavers Defense Panthers Offense

Points/Game 25.0 (125) 29.3 (77)
Rush Yards/Game 134.8 (92) 143.3 (124)
Pass Yards/Game 188.6 (83) 212.9 (116)
Total Yards/Game 323.3 (68) 356.2 (121)
Third Down Pct. 31.3% (23) 36.7% (162)
Fourth Down Pct. 53.8% (175) 72.2% (181)
Sacks 16 (188) 27 (174)
Sack Yards -116 (172) -154 (124)
Rushing TDs 15 (82) 29 (32)
Passing TDs 15 (86) 10 (199)
Carries/Game 417 (87) 455 (89)
Yards/Carry 3.9 (107) 3.8 (143)
Completion Pct. 53.4% (41) 57.8% (119)
Yards/Pass Attempt 6.9 (121) 7.2 (91)
Pass Rating 119.5 (93) 120.6 (149)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 70.1 86.4

Simulations:
  • Final Score: Oregon State 27, Pittsburgh 24
  • Pittsburgh: Stull: 214 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; McCoy/Stephens: 31 rushes, 139 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs
  • Oregon State: Moevao: 254 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; McCants/Jenkins: 26 rushes, 78 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 4 sacks, 4 TOs
My Thoughts:
Look, picking a Dave Wanstedt coached team is hard enough to do, so I'm going to attempt to explain my reasoning. Again, I have to go to the running games. I know by now I'm sounding like a broken record, but when you run the ball effectively, you control the clock, you keep the defense on the field, and you set up the passing game (if you have one). Pittsburgh boasts one of the best backs in the nation in LeSean McCoy, who could potentially declare for the draft. In fact, he probably should declare considering he would be the first back taken most likely. On the other side of the ball, Oregon State will be without Jacquizz Rodgers, who is the Beavers' best back. Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning record this year, 3-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3, and 4-1 ATS when they are the underdog.

Pittsburgh (+3)

Music City Bowl: Boston College vs. Vanderbilt (3:30, ESPN)

Head to Head
Matchup Eagles Offense Commodores Defense

Points/Game 25.5 (123) 20.1 (49)
Rush Yards/Game 143.0 (125) 145.0 (125)
Pass Yards/Game 175.5 (172) 173.7 (45)
Total Yards/Game 318.5 (175) 318.7 (60)
Third Down Pct. 35.8% (169) 36.2% (77)
Fourth Down Pct. 65.2% (26) 50.0% (141)
Sacks 31 (200) 28 (68)
Sack Yards -208 (198) -187 (66)
Rushing TDs 18 (115) 13 (56)
Passing TDs 15 (145) 13 (51)
Carries/Game 480 (63) 453 (151)
Yards/Carry 3.9 (131) 3.8 (95)
Completion Pct. 52.9% (107) 54.6% (59)
Yards/Pass Attempt 5.5 (214) 6.4 (73)
Pass Rating 104.2 (209) 110.4 (42)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 98.7 52.6

Matchup Eagles Defense Commodores Offense

Points/Game 18.5 (31) 19.4 (203)
Rush Yards/Game 92.2 (16) 138.2 (137)
Pass Yards/Game 181.2 (61) 122.8 (227)
Total Yards/Game 273.4 (17) 260.9 (232)
Third Down Pct. 33.3% (38) 33.7% (200)
Fourth Down Pct. 50.0% (132) 50.0% (100)
Sacks 18 (160) 25 (152)
Sack Yards -113 (177) -175 (155)
Rushing TDs 14 (67) 13 (184)
Passing TDs 9 (11) 14 (160)
Carries/Game 418 (90) 435 (116)
Yards/Carry 2.9 (20) 3.8 (147)
Completion Pct. 56.4% (185) 49.2% (222)
Yards/Pass Attempt 5.7 (21) 4.9 (238)
Pass Rating 98.7 (13) 98.0 (221)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 47.2 122.5

Simulations:
  • Final Score: Boston College 21, Vanderbilt 15
  • BC: Davis: 152 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Harris/Haden: 20 rushes, 87 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 3 sacks, 4 TOs
  • Vanderbilt: Adams: 141 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; Adams: 13 rushes, 29 yards; Defense: 3 sacks, 3 TOs
My Thoughts:
Ahh yes, the classic Boston College move: Lose a game that could put them in a meaningful bowl, then go to an inconsequential one against a team that they overmatch. Classic. Here are my concerns for BC. Vandy is good playing a team with a winning record (4-2 ATS) and great as an underdog (6-2 ATS). Another thing too is how long can this bowl win streak go on for BC? It seems like they've been winning bowl games since I was in 5th grade. Another thing is that 3.5 spread is scary. I feel like they'll win by a field goal and screw me here. Oh well.

Boston College (-3.5)

Insight Bowl: Kansas vs. Minnesota (5:30, NFL Network)

Head to Head
Matchup Jayhawks Offense Golden Gophers Defense

Points/Game 32.7 (48) 23.3 (99)
Rush Yards/Game 128.9 (157) 146.8 (133)
Pass Yards/Game 302.3 (14) 231.6 (188)
Total Yards/Game 431.3 (34) 378.4 (163)
Third Down Pct. 50.0% (14) 37.7% (106)
Fourth Down Pct. 50.0% (94) 46.2% (201)
Sacks 22 (111) 31 (41)
Sack Yards -154 (122) -209 (44)
Rushing TDs 22 (77) 12 (42)
Passing TDs 28 (25) 16 (98)
Carries/Game 416 (140) 429 (105)
Yards/Carry 3.7 (159) 4.1 (138)
Completion Pct. 65.7% (18) 57.3% (109)
Yards/Pass Attempt 7.8 (48) 7.3 (170)
Pass Rating 146.2 (37) 125.4 (123)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 49.9 80

Matchup Jayhawks Defense Golden Gophers Offense

Points/Game 29.5 (179) 23.4 (155)
Rush Yards/Game 126.7 (72) 105.8 (202)
Pass Yards/Game 275.5 (236) 216.4 (109)
Total Yards/Game 402.2 (194) 322.3 (172)
Third Down Pct. 41.8% (171) 35.5% (173)
Fourth Down Pct. 45.5% (112) 62.5% (125)
Sacks 28 (60) 28 (184)
Sack Yards -213 (39) -168 (143)
Rushing TDs 20 (146) 18 (117)
Passing TDs 26 (222) 14 (158)
Carries/Game 368 (28) 398 (163)
Yards/Carry 4.1 (136) 3.2 (200)
Completion Pct. 61.3% (241) 62.6% (48)
Yards/Pass Attempt 6.8 (112) 6.8 (125)
Pass Rating 129.9 (152) 128.0 (105)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 95.5 99

Simulations:
  • Final Score: Kansas 31, Minnesota 22
  • Minnesota: Weber: 221 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Eskridge: 13 rushes, 41 yards; Defense: 4 sacks, 3 TOs
  • Kansas: Reesing: 280 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; Sharp: 14 rushes, 82 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 3 sacks, 3 TOs
My Thoughts:
This is one of those games that will kill me...you watch. I hate...hate Minnesota. They stink, and yet they were in the top 25 for like four weeks. Yet, they are just waiting in the weeds, ready to screw me in this game. Kansas should crush them, but I'm almost guaranteeing the Gophers will show up just to make me mad, and to start yelling "I can't believe they're losing to Minnesota!" at the TV (as it scrolls across the bottom line because I don't get NFL Network).

Kansas (-8.5)

Chick-Fil-A (Formerly Known As The Peach) Bowl: LSU vs. Georgia Tech (7:30, ESPN)
Head to Head
Matchup Tigers Offense Yellow Jackets Defense

Points/Game 30.3 (65) 18.8 (37)
Rush Yards/Game 167.3 (84) 116.9 (51)
Pass Yards/Game 204.5 (126) 195.8 (106)
Total Yards/Game 371.8 (97) 312.7 (45)
Third Down Pct. 38.0% (143) 37.9% (110)
Fourth Down Pct. 37.5% (180) 39.1% (114)
Sacks 27 (168) 32 (32)
Sack Yards -171 (152) -237 (23)
Rushing TDs 23 (69) 9 (19)
Passing TDs 20 (80) 19 (153)
Carries/Game 460 (82) 397 (57)
Yards/Carry 4.4 (78) 3.5 (54)
Completion Pct. 51.9% (150) 59.0% (143)
Yards/Pass Attempt 6.7 (137) 6.1 (44)
Pass Rating 116.8 (170) 116.8 (80)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 81 48.5

Matchup Tigers Defense Yellow Jackets Offense

Points/Game 25.9 (135) 26.2 (110)
Rush Yards/Game 105.7 (35) 282.3 (7)
Pass Yards/Game 220.8 (173) 95.0 (239)
Total Yards/Game 326.5 (74) 377.3 (90)
Third Down Pct. 32.1% (29) 38.4% (136)
Fourth Down Pct. 43.8% (99) 45.5% (178)
Sacks 20 (141) 18 (75)
Sack Yards -170 (100) -105 (55)
Rushing TDs 17 (109) 32 (20)
Passing TDs 15 (88) 5 (239)
Carries/Game 381 (41) 600 (15)
Yards/Carry 3.3 (43) 5.6 (11)
Completion Pct. 54.8% (155) 47.1% (233)
Yards/Pass Attempt 6.6 (93) 8.1 (36)
Pass Rating 119.3 (91) 118.8 (155)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 63.9 72.7

Simulations:
  • Final Score: LSU 28, Georgia Tech 27
  • LSU: Jefferson: 161 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; Scott/Williams: 24 rushes, 112 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 1 sack, 3 TOs
  • Georgia Tech: Nesbitt: 73 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Dwyer/Nesbitt/Jones: 42 rushes, 258 yards, 3 TDs
My Thoughts:
I immediately penciled in taking Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech no matter where they ended up, and surprise surprise, Georgia Tech winds up in Atlanta. Seriously, have there ever been this many teams to wind up playing bowl games 50 or less miles from their campus? LSU has looked incredibly flaky this season, a far cry from the National Championship team from a year ago. Georgia Tech is absolutely on fire right now...love it.

Georgia Tech (-4)

Thursday, January 1

Outback Bowl: South Carolina vs. Iowa (11:00, ESPN)

Head to Head
Matchup Gamecocks Offense Hawkeyes Defense

Points/Game 21.7 (177) 13.3 (11)
Rush Yards/Game 98.3 (213) 98.3 (24)
Pass Yards/Game 218.5 (100) 191.3 (96)
Total Yards/Game 316.8 (180) 289.5 (26)
Third Down Pct. 38.5% (135) 33.9% (44)
Fourth Down Pct. 68.8% (19) 57.1% (133)
Sacks 29 (186) 17 (189)
Sack Yards -191 (184) -120 (183)
Rushing TDs 7 (232) 7 (8)
Passing TDs 19 (92) 8 (6)
Carries/Game 403 (159) 383 (43)
Yards/Carry 2.9 (218) 3.1 (29)
Completion Pct. 55.5% (102) 55.7% (78)
Yards/Pass Attempt 6.5 (156) 5.6 (18)
Pass Rating 113.9 (181) 99.1 (14)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 106.1 41

Matchup Gamecocks Defense Hawkeyes Offense

Points/Game 20.3 (54) 30.3 (63)
Rush Yards/Game 128.7 (78) 189.3 (52)
Pass Yards/Game 160.3 (18) 184.6 (158)
Total Yards/Game 288.9 (25) 373.9 (95)
Third Down Pct. 35.2% (61) 38.8% (130)
Fourth Down Pct. 45.5% (114) 50.0% (45)
Sacks 38 (16) 26 (162)
Sack Yards -229 (28) -147 (118)
Rushing TDs 20 (150) 27 (41)
Passing TDs 8 (7) 15 (146)
Carries/Game 429 (107) 468 (74)
Yards/Carry 3.6 (64) 4.9 (35)
Completion Pct. 57.0% (44) 57.8% (120)
Yards/Pass Attempt 6.2 (55) 7.4 (77)
Pass Rating 110.0 (40) 130.1 (93)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 39.1 64

Simulations:
  • Final Score: Iowa 28, South Carolina 21
  • Iowa: Stanzi: 113 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Greene/Hampton: 29 rushes, 182 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 3 sacks, 4 TOs
  • USC: Garcia: 180 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; Davis/Garcia: 22 rushes: 90 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 3 sacks, 3 TOs
My Thoughts:
I was absolutely dreading writing about this game. You know, they play Clemson, and I'm nervous and what not, but still, I'm going "they need to do something to gain some momentum," and ultimately, they did nothing. So, we're in a New Year's bowl game, but the punishment is playing an 11:00 game against the Doak Walker winner in Shonn Greene. So, it's not enough that they have literally no momentum, plus, they are going up against a team that loves to run. This should be interesting. Well, I'll leave you with this (and of course I'm picking USC, and yes I'm nervous, and yes I don't have any confidence in it): History in the bowls is on the Gamecocks' side. They are 4-1 ATS since '92 in bowl games...I'm reaching, but I needed something. I can't wait to watch this completely hungover and end up most likely as frustrated as Spurrier will be (which, by the way, if you haven't noticed, has been a year-long look of disbelief from Spurrier).

South Carolina (+3.5)

Capital One Bowl: Georgia vs. Michigan State (1:00, ABC)

Head to Head
Matchup Bulldogs Offense Spartans Defense

Points/Game 32.1 (50) 21.9 (78)
Rush Yards/Game 153.9 (103) 147.6 (136)
Pass Yards/Game 280.0 (26) 210.3 (139)
Total Yards/Game 433.9 (32) 357.9 (136)
Third Down Pct. 42.1% (78) 41.0% (160)
Fourth Down Pct. 50.0% (101) 18.8% (221)
Sacks 18 (62) 24 (99)
Sack Yards -146 (108) -176 (87)
Rushing TDs 21 (86) 16 (95)
Passing TDs 24 (51) 15 (83)
Carries/Game 393 (171) 417 (84)
Yards/Carry 4.7 (51) 4.2 (155)
Completion Pct. 61.2% (99) 52.2% (30)
Yards/Pass Attempt 9.1 (13) 6.5 (86)
Pass Rating 154.3 (25) 112.4 (49)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 48 74.5

Matchup Bulldogs Defense Spartans Offense

Points/Game 25.6 (132) 26.2 (111)
Rush Yards/Game 129.9 (81) 138.4 (136)
Pass Yards/Game 188.4 (81) 214.0 (113)
Total Yards/Game 318.3 (56) 352.4 (131)
Third Down Pct. 36.5% (82) 35.4% (176)
Fourth Down Pct. 42.1% (83) 66.7% (243)
Sacks 15 (196) 18 (78)
Sack Yards -111 (182) -156 (127)
Rushing TDs 23 (189) 23 (66)
Passing TDs 17 (116) 11 (191)
Carries/Game 405 (64) 477 (67)
Yards/Carry 3.8 (93) 3.5 (179)
Completion Pct. 55.6% (76) 53.3% (191)
Yards/Pass Attempt 6.7 (102) 7.1 (99)
Pass Rating 122.5 (109) 118.3 (161)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 74.6 94

Simulations:
  • Final Score: Georgia 31, Michigan State 22
  • Michigan State: Hoyer: 207 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Ringer: 26 rushes, 95 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs
  • Georgia: Stafford: 230 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Moreno: 20 rushes, 102 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 1 sack, 3 TOs
My Thoughts:
I have to say that it's nice to be previewing games in which I've seen both teams. Numbers are nice, but there's no way of getting a feel for Troy/Southern Miss because I didn't get to see either play this year. Anyway, Georgia has been awful ATS this season (3-6 ATS, 3-5 ATS as a favorite, 2-5 ATS playing a .500+ record team), but Michigan State hasn't been so hot either (6-6 ATS, 0-3 ATS as an underdog). To me, it comes down to what Brian Hoyer can accomplish against this defense. The 'Dawgs will be loading up on Ringer after getting thoroughly embarrassed by GA Tech's run offense in their last game, so Hoyer will need to step up his game and at least attempt to beat UGA through the air. State has a deceptfully good pass D, but I question how they are going to stop Moreno, as they are now using him out of the backfield on screen passes with more regularity. I'm taking UGA, but I really didn't have much faith in either side.

Georgia (-7)

Gator Bowl: Nebraska vs. Clemson (1:00, CBS)

Head to Head
Matchup Tigers Offense Cornhuskers Defense

Points/Game 25.5 (122) 29.2 (174)
Rush Yards/Game 120.5 (179) 125.8 (66)
Pass Yards/Game 218.8 (99) 235.7 (191)
Total Yards/Game 339.3 (151) 361.5 (144)
Third Down Pct. 31.1% (221) 35.3% (63)
Fourth Down Pct. 38.9% (166) 50.0% (72)
Sacks 15 (35) 30 (47)
Sack Yards -127 (76) -225 (28)
Rushing TDs 22 (76) 24 (196)
Passing TDs 13 (167) 17 (114)
Carries/Game 405 (158) 392 (49)
Yards/Carry 3.6 (163) 3.9 (105)
Completion Pct. 63.6% (85) 58.9% (140)
Yards/Pass Attempt 7.2 (90) 8.1 (222)
Pass Rating 128.5 (104) 137.5 (190)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 86 81.9

Matchup Tigers Defense Cornhuskers Offense

Points/Game 16.6 (16) 36.2 (27)
Rush Yards/Game 127.6 (75) 173.5 (68)
Pass Yards/Game 167.3 (31) 284.8 (22)
Total Yards/Game 294.8 (30) 458.3 (16)
Third Down Pct. 37.6% (103) 48.4% (20)
Fourth Down Pct. 41.7% (80) 38.5% (92)
Sacks 28 (58) 21 (107)
Sack Yards -180 (86) -128 (91)
Rushing TDs 7 (7) 27 (40)
Passing TDs 12 (32) 25 (36)
Carries/Game 408 (68) 451 (96)
Yards/Carry 3.8 (87) 4.6 (58)
Completion Pct. 56.1% (155) 69.5% (5)
Yards/Pass Attempt 5.1 (3) 8.6 (17)
Pass Rating 100.1 (17) 157.6 (21)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 38.5 32.5

Simulations:
  • Final Score: Nebraska 27, Clemson 25
  • Clemson: Harper: 234 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; Davis/Spiller: 23 rushes, 94 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs
  • Nebraska: Ganz: 210 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Helu/Lucky: 21 rushes, 87 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 4 sacks, 4 TOs
My Thoughts:
If Nebraska is going to win this game, it is going to have to be through the air. I think Clemson is just too much up front, and despite the good numbers that they have in terms of yards/game defending the pass, they have given up a high completion percentage. Basically, they play off the ball, but are very good open field tacklers. I feel like Clemson will be able to run on Nebraska more than the sims are indicating. It's tough to stop Davis and Spiller for an entire game. What gets me is that I think this will be a shootout, which favors Nebraska.

Nebraska (+2.5)

Friday, January 2

Cotton Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech (2:00, FOX)

Head to Head
Matchup Rebels Offense Red Raiders Defense

Points/Game 30.8 (59) 26.3 (137)
Rush Yards/Game 183.4 (57) 133.5 (86)
Pass Yards/Game 215.3 (111) 238.1 (194)
Total Yards/Game 398.7 (62) 371.6 (157)
Third Down Pct. 42.1% (79) 37.8% (110)
Fourth Down Pct. 61.5% (48) 50.0% (220)
Sacks 34 (222) 30 (48)
Sack Yards -269 (239) -192 (62)
Rushing TDs 19 (106) 21 (167)
Passing TDs 24 (52) 16 (101)
Carries/Game 475 (69) 412 (78)
Yards/Carry 4.6 (61) 3.9 (108)
Completion Pct. 55.3% (176) 63.4% (216)
Yards/Pass Attempt 8.3 (30) 7.1 (152)
Pass Rating 141.5 (50) 127.4 (140)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 64.6 89.8

Matchup Rebels Defense Red Raiders Offense

Points/Game 17.8 (23) 44.6 (4)
Rush Yards/Game 85.0 (13) 118.9 (182)
Pass Yards/Game 209.8 (135) 417.3 (1)
Total Yards/Game 294.8 (31) 536.2 (4)
Third Down Pct. 30.2% (15) 54.5% (4)
Fourth Down Pct. 52.6% (164) 65.2% (102)
Sacks 13 (210) 11 (16)
Sack Yards -76 (225) -104 (53)
Rushing TDs 9 (21) 28 (37)
Passing TDs 14 (71) 43 (5)
Carries/Game 396 (54) 303 (235)
Yards/Carry 2.6 (9) 4.7 (52)
Completion Pct. 58.2% (157) 71.0% (4)
Yards/Pass Attempt 6.6 (94) 8.3 (31)
Pass Rating 118.6 (89) 161.5 (16)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 59.6 33.9

Simulations:
  • Final Score: Texas Tech 38, Ole Miss 29
  • Ole Miss: Snead: 207 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; Eason/McCluster/Bolden: 29 rushes, 130 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 3 sacks, 3 TOs
  • Texas Tech: Harrell: 381 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT; Batch/Woods: 20 rushes, 105 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs
My Thoughts:
I have seen the numbers, I have seen where the money is going...why is this spread so low? What I value perhaps more than anything right now is my wariness of trap spreads. From all indications, Tech should be two-touchdown favorites, and yet, the spread is anywhere between four and six...amazing. I love Tech, but someone knows something. The spread fell two points instead of going up to where it perhaps should be. Look, I love Tech, but this is a really bizarre situation here.

Ole Miss (+6)

Liberty Bowl: East Carolina vs. Kentucky (5:00, ESPN)

Head to Head
Matchup Pirates Offense Wildcats Defense

Points/Game 23.8 (151) 21.7 (75)
Rush Yards/Game 128.3 (161) 142.4 (121)
Pass Yards/Game 207.7 (121) 184.6 (71)
Total Yards/Game 336.0 (156) 327.0 (76)
Third Down Pct. 38.2% (138) 34.3% (50)
Fourth Down Pct. 60.0% (55) 50.0% (140)
Sacks 29 (187) 28 (67)
Sack Yards -205 (193) -177 (86)
Rushing TDs 16 (143) 14 (72)
Passing TDs 14 (162) 17 (117)
Carries/Game 487 (56) 446 (139)
Yards/Carry 3.4 (190) 3.8 (94)
Completion Pct. 60.2% (87) 52.6% (35)
Yards/Pass Attempt 7.1 (101) 6.9 (122)
Pass Rating 127.0 (113) 120.2 (95)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 91.5 61.8

Matchup Pirates Defense Wildcats Offense

Points/Game 20.8 (60) 22.4 (166)
Rush Yards/Game 138.1 (106) 129.3 (156)
Pass Yards/Game 196.7 (109) 169.2 (187)
Total Yards/Game 334.8 (95) 298.4 (208)
Third Down Pct. 34.7% (54) 30.5% (224)
Fourth Down Pct. 47.6% (127) 50.0% (98)
Sacks 24 (102) 11 (15)
Sack Yards -137 (136) -75 (18)
Rushing TDs 16 (98) 18 (120)
Passing TDs 17 (119) 10 (202)
Carries/Game 466 (182) 407 (156)
Yards/Carry 3.9 (110) 3.8 (146)
Completion Pct. 59.8% (201) 54.2% (183)
Yards/Pass Attempt 6.3 (63) 5.3 (228)
Pass Rating 115.9 (73) 100.9 (214)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 74.3 105.5

Simulations:
  • Final Score: Kentucky 22, East Carolina 20
  • East Carolina: Kass: 109 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Whitley/Simmons: 20 rushes, 74 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs
  • Kentucky: Hartline: 186 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Dixon/Smith: 26 rushes, 106 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 3 sacks, 4 TOs
My Thoughts:
East Carolina was on fire to start the season, then had a couple of tough losses, fell off the face of the Earth for a few weeks, but since have 4-1. Both teams are awful against the spread, so basically, I went with the best team.

East Carolina (-2.5)

Saturday, January 3

International Bowl: Buffalo vs. UConn (12:00, ESPN)

Head to Head
Matchup Bulls Offense Huskies Defense

Points/Game 31.1 (58) 19.8 (47)
Rush Yards/Game 141.1 (131) 116.9 (52)
Pass Yards/Game 239.5 (70) 164.5 (27)
Total Yards/Game 380.5 (88) 281.4 (21)
Third Down Pct. 46.4% (31) 32.3% (31)
Fourth Down Pct. 73.9% (6) 18.8% (41)
Sacks 12 (15) 30 (53)
Sack Yards -80 (23) -189 (64)
Rushing TDs 26 (51) 15 (88)
Passing TDs 25 (43) 9 (15)
Carries/Game 467 (77) 404 (63)
Yards/Carry 3.9 (141) 3.5 (57)
Completion Pct. 64.6% (27) 51.4% (19)
Yards/Pass Attempt 7.3 (87) 6.1 (51)
Pass Rating 142.4 (47) 101.1 (21)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 40.7 29.5

Matchup Bulls Defense Huskies Offense

Points/Game 27.5 (155) 23.8 (152)
Rush Yards/Game 158.8 (160) 204.6 (34)
Pass Yards/Game 249.5 (209) 147.3 (211)
Total Yards/Game 408.3 (198) 351.8 (134)
Third Down Pct. 45.7% (220) 33.5% (203)
Fourth Down Pct. 44.4% (107) 33.3% (244)
Sacks 28 (65) 13 (34)
Sack Yards -185 (76) -70 (15)
Rushing TDs 28 (221) 24 (60)
Passing TDs 17 (129) 4 (241)
Carries/Game 447 (141) 507 (40)
Yards/Carry 4.6 (195) 4.8 (47)
Completion Pct. 65.8% (242) 49.5% (218)
Yards/Pass Attempt 7.1 (159) 5.5 (221)
Pass Rating 133.9 (173) 89.1 (236)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 111.4 95

Simulations:
  • Final Score: UConn 29, Buffalo 27
  • Buffalo: Willy: 189 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Thermilus: 18 rushes, 68 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 1 sack, 3 TOs
  • UConn: Lorenzen: 135 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; Brown: 26 rushes, 160 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 4 sacks, 3 TOs
My Thoughts:
I understand Donald Brown is going to run all over Buffalo. Still, I think I have to go with the hot hand here. UConn looked terrible against Pittsburgh, while Buffalo went on to beat previously unbeaten Ball State in the MAC Championship game.

Buffalo (+5)

Tuesday, January 6

GMAC Bowl: Ball State vs. Tulsa (8:00, ESPN)

Head to Head
Matchup Cardinals Offense Golden Hurricane Defense

Points/Game 36.6 (23) 29.1 (170)
Rush Yards/Game 192.7 (46) 133.5 (87)
Pass Yards/Game 266.7 (37) 257.7 (220)
Total Yards/Game 459.4 (15) 391.2 (181)
Third Down Pct. 50.7% (12) 38.6% (122)
Fourth Down Pct. 54.5% (78) 44.4% (90)
Sacks 21 (93) 36 (12)
Sack Yards -153 (118) -221 (34)
Rushing TDs 31 (28) 12 (46)
Passing TDs 27 (30) 32 (241)
Carries/Game 492 (49) 446 (140)
Yards/Carry 5.1 (29) 3.9 (111)
Completion Pct. 67.0% (54) 60.7% (176)
Yards/Pass Attempt 9.2 (10) 7.9 (213)
Pass Rating 164.5 (10) 148.6 (225)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 28.7 94

Matchup Cardinals Defense Golden Hurricane Offense

Points/Game 18.6 (33) 47.4 (2)
Rush Yards/Game 141.8 (119) 254.8 (13)
Pass Yards/Game 206.2 (127) 310.2 (12)
Total Yards/Game 347.9 (118) 565.1 (2)
Third Down Pct. 40.9% (158) 57.7% (1)
Fourth Down Pct. 42.3% (88) 42.1% (138)
Sacks 12 (220) 20 (100)
Sack Yards -82 (222) -99 (44)
Rushing TDs 13 (55) 37 (11)
Passing TDs 14 (70) 44 (4)
Carries/Game 433 (115) 610 (12)
Yards/Carry 4.3 (162) 5.4 (15)
Completion Pct. 57.2% (205) 64.2% (36)
Yards/Pass Attempt 6.3 (61) 10.2 (3)
Pass Rating 113.2 (55) 175.6 (3)
Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 82.2 18

Simulations:
  • Final Score: Ball State 44, Tulsa 39
  • Ball State: Davis: 283 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT; Lewis: 30 rushes, 147 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 2 sacks, 4 TOs
  • Tulsa: Johnson: 255 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs; Adams/Opesevitan/Williams: 30 rushes, 170 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs
My Thoughts:
I think this will basically come down to whatever team makes a stop. I mean I don't even know if that will happen, but if a team forces one or two punts, they will be in the driver's seat for this game. Both defense aren't so hot, but Ball State is looking significantly better in terms of average yards/play given up, especially against the run. We already had TCU/Boise State for the fans of the D. This one will be for everyone that likes to see games where the two teams combine for like a thousand yards.

Ball State (-1.5)

And I'm spent...phew...well, you may have noticed I left the BCS games out. I figured I can take a break from this for a little bit, and really focus on the BCS games in my next column. Again, we're on a losing streak right now, but hopefully things will turn around...and if not, this was a nice way to chip away at all the free time I have. I'm at least hoping this will give people a look at teams that they probably haven't seen before, and I know my predictions are not all working out, but at least you get a feel for each team in terms of what they like to do, what they're good at, what they're not so hot at, etc. Again, happy holidays, and the BCS preview will be up shortly. Peace.

~Mell-o