Thursday, April 08, 2010

2010 NFL Mock Draft 3.0

"And you've got ventriloquists."

A move as big as Donovan McNabb to the Redskins garners an updated mock draft ( the division Philly?...really?). Also, we've experienced some movers and shakers in the past couple of weeks, meaning there has been some movement up and down the board. Here is a full two-round mock draft:
  1. St. Louis- Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma: I kind of just wish they would do the contract now and get it over with. They are locked into Bradford whether they like it or not (apparently they like it though). This is kind of looking similar to the '07 Draft, where Oakland, despite needing everything, were basically locked into JaMarcus Russell at the top. The Rams no longer have a choice, and they pretty much did it to themselves here.
  2. Detroit- Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska: One quick note: I successfully mastered the spelling of Suh's first name, thus crossing off a major goal of April I had (April Goals: Suh's first name, getting work off for the Draft, and walking over the Longfellow and Harvard bridges in one trip...3 for 3 (the bridges connect Cambridge to Boston...the Harvard Bridge is how you get to...MIT? I know, weird)). Okung probably should be the guy here, but the Lions actually have some pieces in place with their line, while on the defensive side, they have nothing.
  3. Tampa Bay- Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma: I think the most bold move any prognosticator could make right now is having someone other than McCoy here. He may be edging Suh for the #1 player this year.
  4. Washington- Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State: Again, this will be the tipping point of the draft potentially. If Okung drops to them at #4, the 'Skins will have completed one of the most drastic turnarounds in recent memory. With McNabb and the three-headed, slightly over the hill, running back monster, Okung provides them Chris Samuels 2.0, which they desperately need. If Okung is not here, they either reach for Bulaga, or trade down and hope they get Bulaga later on or Trent Williams.
  5. Kansas City- Eric Berry, S, Tennessee: What kind of baffles me is the talk that giving Berry, a safety, top 5 money may not be financially responsible. So despite everyone...literally everyone saying that Berry will be "Ed Reed-like," he wouldn't be worth the money? If Berry isn't worth the money, then no one is worth the money (actually they probably aren't worth the money they will get, but you can blame the NFL for that).
  6. Seattle- Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma: Williams has been riding a steady momentum train, and the hope for him is that he can somehow keep it up for another two weeks. You never know though. Something may get out about him, and it's all over. I'm not saying that will happen, but sometimes, peaking too early can be detrimental.
  7. Cleveland- Joe Haden, CB, Florida: You will be able to find about seven to eight different guys who are going here to the Browns, which means that they, along with Washington, are the two teams most likely to trade out of the top 10. I really feel like, in this scenario, Cleveland will have offers coming in from teams like Buffalo and San Francisco looking to move up for Bulaga. The Browns need so much that if they trade down, remain in the top 15, and pick up some additional picks, that would be the best scenario for them. Otherwise, they take the best corner in the draft...not bad.
  8. Oakland- Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida: I remain true here because if I peg Al Davis' pick, the rest is completely in-circumstantial. Pierre-Paul, when looking at what he did at the combine, is probably at the top of the "athletically gifted" list (Pierre-Paul, Bruce Campbell, Derrick Morgan, Taylor Mays), and that's just the way it goes in Oakland.
  9. Buffalo- Brian Bulaga, OT, Iowa: If Bulaga and Williams go in the top 8, then I have Clausen going here. However, I can't see them standing pat and let the three best offensive tackles all go off the board without making serious overtones about moving into the top 7 at least to grab one of the two. QB is a need of sorts considering the dependability they have with their current QB crop (they have none), but the need for "the franchise tackle" is #1.
  10. Jacksonville- Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama: I keep coming back to my Mike Peterson reference about the Jags' defense, but it's so true. They need someone they can rely on calling the plays in the middle. McClain is probably the #1 "guy who can be a rookie, yet become a team leader quickly" prospect. Also, call me crazy, but when a middle linebacker projects in the top 10, doesn't that usually work out? (Last five middle linebackers selected in the top 10 or a pick or two after: Jerod Mayo, Patrick Willis (#11), A.J. Hawk, Ernie Sims, Jonathan Vilma (#12)...yeah that works out).
  11. Denver- Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech: I looked over a few options here (even Jimmy Clausen...are you really sold on Kyle Orton starting for this team for the next decade?), but Morgan has to be the most intriguing of those options here. You have him and Dumervil coming off the edges, and good night. Kiper threw out Earl Thomas here...that actually has some merit as well.
  12. Miami- Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee: So 10-12 I'm status quo on.Williams is the best pure nose tackle in the draft, and while I believe Suh and McCoy when they say they can play five-technique and be the NT in a 3-4 scheme, I think Williams projects as that Vince Wilfork-type, the prototypical guy in the middle of a three down-lineman set.
  13. San Francisco- Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State: The Niners could wait on Wilson until they pick again at #17, but here's the thing: With Tennessee looming at #16, they are going to take the best available non-running back, which would likely be Wilson. San Fran has a pressing need at corner, and if Joe Haden does fall here, it will be a no-brainer, but with Haden gone, I think Wilson garners a top 15 pick simply because he can do it all. He may even have better cover skills than Haden.
  14. Seattle- Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame: This pick reminds me of the '07 Draft when Miami was on the clock and Brady Quinn was still out there. The Dolphins literally had no QB (although they got Trent Green shortly there afterward), and Quinn, who some people had going as high as #3 that year to Cleveland, was still there. The Dolphins pulled a shocker and went with Ted Ginn, which led to a Quinn free-fall almost out of the first round (was picked at #20 by, yes, Cleveland). If the Seahawks don't take Clausen here, he may not hear his name called until the end of the first round. All things considered, I think Clausen is more "pro-ready" right now than Quinn was, and Pete Carroll is obviously familiar with Clausen's capabilities having played against him at Southern Cal (side note: the last time a Pete Carroll-led team has two first round picks, it was his last year in the NFL with the Pats in '99; they took Damien Woody and, yes, the immortal Andy Katzenmoyer).
  15. New York Giants- Earl Thomas, S, Texas: The consensus is this: The Giants want Rolando McClain bad, and may consider moving to get him if they don't think he falls to them at #15. If they don't, and he's gone, Thomas is the best defensive player available by far in this scenario. The Giants need inside linebacking help, but they are also in desperate need of safety help, particularly a free safety.
  16. Tennessee- Everson Griffen, DE, Southern Cal: This was tough because the three guys I think the Titans would really like to have (Pierre-Paul, Morgan, Wilson) are all gone. Griffen is on the rise. He was impressive at the combine, and did nothing to damper that at his pro day...actually, it was his pro day that elevated him from 1st/2nd rounder to surefire top 20 status.
  17. San Francisco- C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson: Again, depending on how the draft funnels out, the Niners may flip-flop and take Spiller at #13 to avoid a possible Spiller to Seattle situation at #14. So, it will be interesting to see how long they wait to pull the trigger on Spiller, who would be an obvious upgrade to their offense, and would also take some of the load off of Frank Gore, who has to be kind of wearing down considering he has literally and figuratively carried that offense for the last four or five years.
  18. Pittsburgh- Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho: The sentiments are that Maurkice Pouncey is now the #1 interior offensive lineman, but I'm totally convinced that if Iupati falls to the Steelers at #18, it won't matter what anyone says because this guy is absolutely perfect in Pittsburgh...he's got the Steeler mentality in that he plays physical and with a mean streak.
  19. Atlanta- Brandon Graham, OLB, Michigan: As tempting as a Roddy White/Dez Bryant combo might be, the Falcons do need someone else besides John Abraham who can rush the passer (T-26 in sacks). Graham has become the best "pure" outside linebacker in the draft. This has been an interesting progression for me. At first, I was dead set against the Pats taking him, but if Graham does fall to #22, I will have absolutely no problem if they scoop him up. However, I think the Falcons jump the gun on them.
  20. Houston- Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State: The Texans would love to see either C.J. Spiller or Kyle Wilson fall to them here. Again though, I'm feeling both are going to be gone in the top 15, so unless the Texans plan on moving up the board, they are going to have to go corner here as a "need" pick and not so much "value." It's a race for #3, with Robinson in front, Devin McCourty in second, and Kareem Jackson gaining momentum in a close third. Take this into consideration as well: As long as they're reaching for a corner, they may reach for a runner as well and take Ryan Matthews here.
  21. Cincinnati- Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma: The feeling here is that Gresham was the pick all along, but Taylor Mays' name is continuing to come up in discussions going here at #21. I think Mays is a beast, but the Bengals need offense quick. Their defense isn't the greatest, but in thinking about Cincy, they are a team that is driven by the offense (which is weird with Marvin Lewis in charge and what not), so upgrading that unit probably has a little more prevalence than taking someone to sure up the defensive backfield. This one I'm not completely sold on though.
  22. New England- Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State: As if a bolt of lightning hit me, I have to say that right now, this would be the smartest pick the Pats could make. Think about this: It's clear that the #1 need for New England is a pass rusher off the edge. However, there are bountiful amounts of prospects that fit that mold. As I'm sitting here looking at receivers, I see three guys having major impacts (Bryant, DeMaryius Thomas, Golden Tate) and a few more who are on the second tier (Eric Decker, Jordan Shipley, Arrelious Benn). In some evaluations, Bryant is listed as a top five prospect, so if he were to fall this far because of an overblown meeting with Deion Sanders, and with Randy Moss more than likely to be done in New England after this year, Bryant makes way too much sense.
  23. Green Bay- Charles Brown, OT, Southern Cal: It's looking better and better if you're a team at the end of the first round and you are looking for offensive line prospects. The next three coming off the board I all had going somewhere in the top 15 in my previous mock drafts. Lots of enticing names here, but Brown seems to be the most stable pick in terms of a lineman.
  24. Philadelphia- Maurkice Pouncey, OG, Florida: Corner is the obvious choice here, but with Haden and Wilson gone, I feel like the next few corners should be high-to-mid second rounders. The Eagles pick again at #37, so they can wait to snag either McCourty or Jackson. Pouncey would be the best available player at this point. Again, some have him higher than Iupati, so if he somehow gets down here to #24, I have to think the Eagles would give him serious consideration (note: Pouncey is becoming one of those "hey, we should probably move up before teams X & Y and take him", so don't be surprised if he ends up going in the 15-20 range)
  25. Baltimore- Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech: Offense seems to be the consensus choice for the Ravens, and it looks to be either Jermaine Gresham or a receiver. With Gresham off the board, it now comes down to who Baltimore likes better, Thomas or Golden Tate. I give Thomas the slight edge based on how big he is (6'3 compared to Tate at 5'10) and the raw upside he brings to the table. Tate is much more polished, but Thomas has been talked about in the same breath as Dez Bryant in terms of being a top 15 talent, while Tate has continually been talked about as a late first, early second (quick side note: Baltimore is +1700 to win the Super Bowl next year, basically meaning if you bet $10 and they win, you get $170 back...I'm just throwing that out there).
  26. Arizona- Sean Weatherspoon, ILB, Missouri: Wow, the Cardinals need everything. This team could really tank this year if the NFC West gets even slightly better (to me, the Niners are almost a lock to win that division). They lose Dansby to Miami...that wasn't too bright. So now, they need something in the middle, and while I had the Cards' going OLB here, I think Weatherspoon is of the Rolando McClain type who can step in from day one, start getting support and praise from his teammates immediately, and have a nice impact wherever he ends up.
  27. Dallas- Taylor Mays, S, Southern Cal: I think they really want Pouncey to fall this far, but if Dallas stays put here, and Mays is still available, it's a total win-win. First, the Cowboys get a guy to replace Ken Hamlin, and Mays may pan out better than Hamlin. Mays ends up on a team that is favored to win the NFC next year and could make a run for the Super Bowl, plus he will play on the biggest stage in the NFL after just playing on the biggest stage in college (Southern Cal could be in line for a whopping tail-spin with Lane Kiffin as their coach...even Trojan fans have to feel icky after Kiffin's about-face on Tennessee to return to SoCal).
  28. San Diego- Ryan Matthews, RB, San Diego State: This will come down to two guys: Matthews and Terrance Cody. They need both positions badly, but I feel like Matthews is the pick here considering a.) there's no way he comes around to them at #40, and if you're drafting a running back this year, the immediate dividends are going to come from Spiller and Matthews, and b.) while the need for a run-stuffer like Cody is high, big DTs will be there at #40 if Cody isn't. The Chargers are absolutely desperate for a runner who can handle the majority of the carries, because while I love Darren Sproles, he would get killed if he attempted 300 carries in a season. To better utilize Sproles, Matthews would take on a bulk of the workload so Sproles can continue to flourish as the change-of-pace back and someone who can receive out of the backfield.
  29. New York Jets- Jared Odrick, DE, Penn State: This is a two-prong pick because we are still waiting on whether Jason Taylor will end up in Jersey. If Taylor does come on board, the need will shift from a pass rush to run support, enter Odrick, who can play both DT and DE (although he likely projects better as a 4-3 DT and not a NT in a 3-4). If the Jets do not sign Taylor, I feel like it will be between Odrick, Sergio Kindle, and Jerry Hughes.
  30. Minnesota- Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers: While I believe that Brian Price would be a great fit in Minnesota, the fact remains that taking him would basically be a luxury..."insurance" if you will. McCourty would be a starter from his first game as a rookie, so you have to wonder how much the present value of a player will offset the future value (speaking of future, people still have Tebow going here).
  31. Indianapolis- Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas: I will be amazed if Kindle gets this far, but he's an example of a guy who is already in the clubhouse with absolutely nothing to prove, but what happens is that those established players, the "rocks," get swept under the rug due to someone else's amazing pro day or Combine workouts. While Kindle may not become a Hall of Famer, he will definitely make an immediate impact, and, again, he has not wavered any in terms of his ability, meaning that you can rely on him still going strong five years from now.
  32. New Orleans- Jerry Hughes, OLB, TCU: Again, it can't get much better than this for the Saints. Win a Super Bowl, then get a top 20 guy at the end of the first is good.
Second Round

33. St. Louis- Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers: What's fantastic about really, really bad teams going through the draft process is that they really can't lose. They probably need everything, so just keep drafting the best available player, and if they don't work out, that's okay, because at the time, everyone thought they would. You have a guy here in Davis who I had slotted in the top 5 about a month ago based on his total freakish upside. Now, those good old "character issues" have taken a massive hit to Davis' draft stock. The Rams get a guy who could be an Orlando Pace kind of tackle, or he busts, they stink, and they do it all over again.

34. Detroit- Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida: Dunlap's "questionable motor" sees him fall out of the first round and right to Detroit, who is in need of an impact pass rusher.

35. Tampa Bay- Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame: Basically, I can see the top five to six picks in this round all being made by teams trying to trade up. Still though, I hope at least these three (STL, DET, TB) stay here at the top because they all need some kind of spark.

36. Kansas City- Rob Gronkowski, TE, Arizona: KC's offense looked dreadful last year outside of Jamaal Charles, but with Charles and now Thomas Jones in the backfield, look for the Chiefs to start thinking about pass options for Matt Cassel. Also, while Gronkowski likely won't be the next Tony Gonzalez, you can at least tell the fans "hey, we're trying."

37. Philadelphia- Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama: I believe Philly will be able to make the gamble pay off, but the only question will be who of the last five top corners will be here. Jackson could potentially sneak into the first, leaving McCourty dangling...that might be even more scary than if Jackson slipped into the second. For some reason, I can see someone moving up to get McCourty, but Jackson I can see getting through those first four picks.

38. Cleveland- Terrance Cody, DT, Alabama: Everyone seems to be thinking the Browns go QB...I don't know why they would start to spend high draft picks on a QB when a.) it hasn't worked in the recent past, and b.) I feel like Jake Delhomme may actually work out in Cleveland. He's a passionate guy, they're a passionate fan base...he has two or three really good games, which he's absolutely capable of given of how sneaky this Browns offense will start off being, he might be okay. You have Cribbs, Massaquoi, Robiskie, and a scary underrated Chansi Stuckey, coupled with James Harrison, who could emerge as a top 5-10 RB in the league this year. Cody can easily slide in place of Shaun Rogers, who seems like while he has technically been playing, his career was over like three years ago.

39. Oakland- Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland: Do you believe Raider Nation? Al Davis could potentially pass on Campbell at #8, and yet may wind up taking him 30 picks later in the second round. This would be monumental. Oakland brings back two major athletes who seem to be pointing more towards "boom" than "bust."

40. San Diego- Brian Price, DT, UCLA: Again, not Cody, but Price actually fits more of the Jamal Williams mold; the athletic defensive tackle. It seemed like Williams, when healthy, was thriving in that defense, so this is a really nice fit for Price.

41. Buffalo- Colt McCoy, QB, Texas: This is why I don't think the Bills necessarily have to go QB at #9. McCoy, Pike, LeFevour, and Tebow will all be around here, and who knows, maybe McCoy becomes franchise material?

42. Tampa Bay- Rodger Saffold, OG, Indiana: Along with the Pats, the Bucs, Chiefs and Niners have got to cash in this year, with all four having three picks inside the top 50. The Bucs need help all over the line, so going with the best line prospect here makes sense.

43. Miami- Damian Williams, WR, Southern Cal: I like the Ginn/Camarillo/Bess trio, but health concerns, especially with Camarillo, are starting to take their toll on those Wildcat-happy Dolphins. Rest assured though, the Wildcat will still be used, but I see Miami really relying more on Chad Henne's arm this year, as they think they have found something in him.

44. New England- Tim Tebow, QB, Florida: I think for my final installment of the mock draft, I'm going to be really 50/50 on whether Tebow to the Pats is legit. To me, it makes too much sense, and when have the Pats gone according to plan on draft day? Still, I can't emphasize the fact that Tebow will do everything short of killing a man (because I think that's one of those commandments...maybe like #4 or 5) to succeed in the NFL. The Pats are lying to themselves if they think Brian Hoyer is going to be the face of the franchise.

45. Denver- Arrelious Benn, WR, Illinois: The Brandon Marshall situation is still up in the air, so the Broncos are going to have to play this one like he's gone already, and if Marshall ends up staying, they have a nice young receiver nucleus in Marshall, Benn, and Eddie Royal.

46. New York Giants- Sean Lee, ILB, Penn State: This is a guy that could really prosper under Tom Coughlin. Lee has a very workman-like attitude when he's on the field, and the Giants, unless they address this need in the first round at #15, have to take someone who can play the inside in the first two rounds.

47. New England- Ricky Sapp, OLB, Clemson: Hard to believe, but I'm actually hoping the Pats get one of the two top Clemson prospects (both would be great too). In these four picks inside the top 60, if the Pats do not at least attempt to beef up their pass rush, they automatically do no better than a "B" grade.

48. Carolina- Mardy Gilliard, WR, Cincinnati: The Panthers seem to have a knack for taking guys who not only play their own position well, but can also add to the special teams realm as well (Steve Smith, Chris Gamble).

49. San Francisco- Tyson Alualu, DT, California: This guy is on the rise, and it's not just because he has an awesome name. Much like Jared Odrick, who will be long gone by this point, Alualu can play both end and tackle, and it's all about versatility nowadays.

50. Kansas City- Vladimir Ducasse, OG, UMass: Like the Bucs, the Chiefs basically just need to draft anyone who could play any position on the line. Look for them to also be "best available player" shopping as well.

51. Houston- Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech: There was a time where I had Dwyer ranked higher than Matthews. Dwyer represents the last "true" runner who will have the chance to compete for a starting job in the 2010 season. The only question is his size, but that "negative" has been overcome before.

52. Pittsburgh- Brandon Ghee, CB, Wake Forest: In thinking about this pick, I couldn't help but think back to the first round...could the Steelers possibly bypass Iupati and Pouncey and go for a corner at #18? It is possible, especially if Kyle Wilson slides to them. However, in this scenario, the Steelers will still be looking for someone to play opposite of Ike Taylor.

53. New England- Aaron Hernandez, TE, Florida: I look at Alge Crumpler and I think "if we had gotten this guy five years ago, he could be the #1, and we wouldn't have to worry about a receiving option at TE." With Crumpler basically relegated to the Chris Baker block first, receive second role, the Pats should really give strong consideration to Hernandez, who would be the Pats' version of Dustin Keller.

54. Cincinnati- Chad Jones, S, LSU: The Bengals will address their need for safety, it's just a question of will they go with Mays in the first round, or wait until #54 and take either Jones or Nate Allen.

55. Philadelphia- Daryl Washington, OLB, TCU: A lot of people have the Eagles going QB in the second round. I'm thinking that there could be nothing worse than to waver the confidence of a newly minted QB (Kevin Kolb), who already has enough competition as it is (Vick...believe it) than to spend a high pick on a QB. So, the Eagles should probably wait and think about a guy like LeFevour in the third or fourth rounds and really continue to focus on things they don't have, like the fact that they only have three OLBs on their roster right now.

56. Green Bay- Chris Cook, CB, Virginia: The pundits are off and on about Cook, but when it comes time to be on the clock, it's going to be hard to overlook Cook at 6'2 being by far the tallest corner, especially in a division with Calvin Johnson and, yes, my man, Sidney Rice (if I don't have him on my fantasy team this year, I'll be so steamed!).

57. Baltimore- Jimmy Graham, TE, Miami: While grabbing Gresham in the first round may be the ideal choice, Ozzie Newsome has to know that the so-called "second tier" of TEs is actually quite good, with Graham, Gronkowski, Hernandez, Ed Dickson, Dorin Dickerson, and Dennis Pitta all projecting very well. Graham is a basketball player turned football these guys at tight end. Playing power forward is basically like playing tight end without the three-second violations.

58. Arizona- Jared Veldheer, OT, Hillside: I mean Matt Leinart is going to get destroyed anyway, but just like the Chiefs drafting a tight end, you can at least say you tried to do are the Cardinals in trouble this year.

59. Dallas- Cam Thomas, DT, North Carolina: This is one of those guys that I see, and I instantly think he's a Cowboy. I don't know what it is, but when you see these big, athletic linemen who already have that mean look to them, they somehow always end up in Big D.

60. Seattle- Jahvid Best, RB, California: If Seattle cannot get Spiller or Matthews, they are looking at Best or Dwyer as being the "transition" backs. Anthony Forsett could prove everyone wrong and be that #1 guy, but ideally, Seattle will be looking for insurance in case that does not pan out.

61. New York Jets- Navorro Bowman, OLB, Penn State: Bowman slightly edged out Eric Norwood here based on value, and the fact that it would make me sick to my stomach if another guy I really liked ended up on the Jets (see: Curtis Martin, Jonathan Vilma, Thomas Jones, Jericho Cotchery, Nick Mangold, Darelle Revis, Dustin Keller).

62. Minnesota- Dexter McCluster, RB, Ole Miss: After what Percy Harvin did for them last year, let's just say that whole "multi-dimensional" offensive player would be welcomed here. If the Vikings don't get a legit #2 runner, they are really going to be feeling the loss of Chester Taylor, as if it wasn't big enough already.

63. Indianapolis- Perrish Cox, CB, Oklahoma State: This is clearly a need for the Colts with Marlin Jackson gone. There are a number of corners who could sneak their way up into the bottom of the second round (Jerome Murphy, Dominique Franks), but Cox has been pretty steady in terms of receiving a second round grade throughout this draft process.

64. New Orleans- Nate Allen, S, South Florida: Darren Sharper wants to come back to the Saints, but he's not going to be taking the veteran minimum to do so. So, this leaves somewhat of a gaping hole in the Saints' secondary. Allen probably won't be able to hit the Sharper-level, but he will at least be serviceable until the Saints can figure out how they will be able to solve their free safety situation.

So there is the third installment. I'm hoping to get one up right before the draft goes off (Thursday, April 22nd at 7:30 if you weren't aware) because there will be a lot more information about players and the directions teams are leaning in the days and hours right before the first pick is announced. I think what I will try and do is make a final first round mock, then wait until after the first round on Thursday and make a new second round mock on that Friday before coverage starts up again (rounds 2-3 are set to commence at 6:00 on Friday). Again, this would be the ideal situation to this point, I'm just hoping to not be working during the first round. Hope everyone is well out there. Take care. Peace.


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