2013 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

"Better learn balance. Balance is key. Balance good, karate good. Everything good. Balance bad, better pack up, go home. Understand?"

What's happening everybody? So if you were unaware, I just moved to Miami because mother nature had been putting me in the Figure Four for most of my life, and I had about enough of it. So I grabbed the ropes and moved to South Florida, putting all the winter bullshit behind. Some people like the cold...these are the people that should be living in New England. Me? I would get sick for like six months out of the year and couldn't function as a normal human being (as if functioning like one is easy when it's nice out). 

Sooooooooo the question then probably comes down to what I'm going to do for money, and while I don't have one yet (getting close though...trust me on this), I have been on Craigslist a bunch lately. While I was there, I came across an ad that talked about a site called Fantasy Football Planet and how the creator wanted people to write for him (of course, no $$ involved...yet). So, I figured I had some time in between sleeping and going to the bars to give him a bit of a sample. Hope you guys enjoy.

On The Defensive: Mock Draft 1.0

By Rich Lyons

If you needed a franchise quarterback, this was not your year to suck.

Sorry to Kansas City, Jacksonville, and perhaps Oakland. Timing in drafting, sports and life en general is everything, and you didn’t have it. It’s okay. Actually every single team goes through this (Yankees fans are rooting for the Wild Card, Red Sox fans like myself are rooting to not be a complete embarrassment, and everything after that would be icing on the Little Debbie cupcake). So, where does a team with this high of a pick go? I don’t mean for any of this to be putting down Geno Smith. He’s a great talent. He was, at times, completely electric operating the WVU offense. The reality of the situation is that these teams are not as gung-ho as they would have been last year about taking a QB this high. So, it’s time to break down the top 3, because in my opinion, three have emerged as locks, with Philly at #4 to break the ice on the next level (or perhaps trade…for a team that was dubbed the “Dream Team” two years ago, they need a bunch of help).

Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah: This is even worse timing for KC because in my opinion, Lotulelei is probably the best player in the draft. He plays arguably the most important non-QB job in football in being able to have the ability to play the 3-4 nose tackle, but can also play the 4-3. The Chiefs have drafted three top-15 defensive tackles in the last five drafts, including Dontari Poe last year. That’s why I say it’s unfortunate. It seems like they just can’t find the stabilizing guys that you would expect when drafting and spending that high (keep in mind that Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson are being paid from their pre-CBA rookie contracts, which were bananas). KC needs a QB, but probably won’t pick Star because of their recent Detroit drafting wide receiver-like spell. So the best player won’t go #1 (it happens…not too often…last time was probably 2007 with JaMarcus Russell being taken over Calvin Johnson and, if you want to look deeper, Adrian Peterson), so who will?

Star Update (2/25): So after the fast 40 times and the saga that was the Manti Te'o press conference, the emerging story of the Combine is Star's heart condition discovered in his physical. Star is scheduled to see a specialist either today or shortly, and right now his status is "pending" for the Combine.

Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M: Joeckel will go #1 I think…for now. These things can change, especially when there’s no clear-cut answer as to who is going at the top. If you’re the Chiefs, this is probably going to be the easiest to sell. Look for a QB through the trade market (definitely don’t look for the answer in free agency because after Joe Flacco, who doesn’t look like is going anywhere, it gets real bare, real quick), and sell your fans on the fact that this guy not only ranks as the #1 guy on a lot of boards, but protected Johnny Football, and right now, any association with him, and you’re in.

Jarvis Jones, LB, Georgia: Going into this season, this guy probably projected as the #1 pick given the value of having a talented outside pass rusher who can, at the very least, divert traffic in the running game. Von Miller went #2 to Denver two years ago…can you really blame them for that move?

Right now, it would seem like it’s Joeckel to KC at 1, Jarvis at 2 to the Jags (and if he isn’t the pick, hopefully someone that can rush the passer), and Star at 3 to Oakland (or something in the defensive realm). Philly is at #4. They need a bunch as was noted earlier. Regardless of if they stay here or they don’t, here are the guys that teams would at least consider trading up to get to:

Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia: Quarterbacks run the world, and quite frankly, if you don’t have a good one, you’re going to be bad, and even if you make the playoffs with a bad quarterback, you will not win the championship, which is the ultimate goal. Seriously, last ten years, the “worst” QB to win a Super Bowl was Roethlisberger (notice I put worst in quotes…and he won two). So, it seems like Geno is the favorite to be, perhaps, a difference maker, with Sean Glennon from N.C. State, Tyler Wilson from Arkansas, and E.J. Manuel as the proverbial dark horse candidates for difference maker (I just don’t know about Matt Barkley…last year did not go so hot).

Clearly KC could go with Geno at #1, and this next argument could be put to bed real quick. So, let’s say that they don’t. Here are teams who could be looking to get into the 4 spot for him:

Arizona (picking 7^th): Possibly the best storyteller currently of the need to have a steady QB. The Kevin Kolb/John Skelton/That Other Guy experiment is not working in ‘Zona, and if I’m Larry Fitzgerald, I might be kind of nervous at the legacy-dampening that has been done not only to his career but to his team. I’m sure starting fresh would not be the worst move for the Cards.

Buffalo (picking 8^th): The Bills have 180’d on Ryan Fitzpatrick. They gave him a whole bunch of money, and now, as they miss the playoffs year…after year…after year, eventually, you too need to start fresh. I think Buffalo is actually a much more interesting scenario than Arizona because of the C.J. Spiller factor. What you would be doing is narrowing the playbook and focusing on the athleticism. Of course you will need to throw in the pocket at some point, but a Geno/Spiller/Fred Jackson combo could be something else to watch.

Other than that, everyone is either completely set, or delusionally set at QB (“delusionally set” is referring to teams who think they have it figured out but really sort of don’t…Jacksonville, Cleveland, the Jets, and coming soon, Oakland, because Carson Palmer is working…for now). At least the Bills and the Cards have made enough of a ruckus to make it known that they are not entirely satisfied with how things are going.

Damontre Moore, DE/OLB, Texas A&M: I will say that unless the Chiefs talk themselves into Geno, Moore is the one guy I could see mixing into the top 3. Again, there’s a huge demand on pass rushers, and unlike franchise QBs, usually a few emerge as stars every year.

Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State: People have been flip-flopping on who is the best edge rusher in the draft. Despite what people may say, the fact remains that it’s likely Moore and Werner both go in the top 5.

Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan: While the pair of D-Ends are likely guys that teams will trade up to get a crack at, Fisher represents filling an actual need for the Eagles, with their line in complete shambles as Jason Peters tries to return this year from an Achilles injury.

Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama: Seemingly corner is a need that Philly has had for the last decade. They struck out with Nnamdi Asomugha, and when he becomes a cap causality, the Eagles will again be looking for that elusive “shut down” corner they really haven’t had since Asante Samuel.

If you haven’t noticed by now, this isn’t exactly the best draft to be looking for offensive talent in the first round…in fact, this could be one of the worst of all time (there’s one or two QBs (Geno and perhaps Sean Glennon) who will go in the first round, maybe one RB (Eddie Lacy), and two or three WRs (Cordarelle Patterson, Keenan Allen, and Tavon Austin) who could go in the top 30-40 picks). With this lack of talent, I expect there to be a lot of trading towards the end of the first round (which has actually become somewhat of a norm, especially with the emergence lately of skill players taken at the end of the first or sometime in the second round).

So, as you will see, defense reigns supreme in the first round this year. Here’s how I think things will shape up right now. Of course none of this will go according to plan, but it’s a good way of seeing what teams need, the trends of the draft, etc.

1	KC	Luke Joeckel	OT	Texas A&M
2	JAX	Jarvis Jones	OLB	Georgia
3	OAK	Star Lotulelei	DT	Utah
4	PHI	Eric Fisher	OT	Central Michigan
5	DET	Bjoern Werner	DE/OLB	Florida State
6	CLE	Damontre Moore	DE/OLB	Texas A&M
7	ARZ	Chance Warmack	G	Alabama
8	BUF	Geno Smith	QB	West Virginia
9	NYJ	Ezekiel Ansah	DE/OLB	BYU
10	TEN	Dee Milliner	CB	Alabama
11	SD	Barkevious Mingo	DE/OLB	LSU
12	MIA	Shariff Floyd	DT	Florida
13	TB	Lane Johnson	OT	Oklahoma
14	CAR	Kenny Vaccaro	S	Texas
15	NO	Dion Jordan	DE/OLB	Oregon
16	STL	Cordarelle Patterson	WR	Tennessee
17	PIT	Jonathan Hankins	DT	Ohio State
18	DAL	Sheldon Richardson	DT	Missouri
19	NYG	Alec Ogletree	ILB	Georgia
20	CHI	Manti Te'o	ILB	Notre Dame
21	CIN	Datone Jones	DE/OLB	UCLA
22	STL*	Kevin Minter	ILB	LSU
23	MIN	Keenan Allen	WR	California
24	IND	Jonathan Banks	CB	Mississippi State
25	SEA	Jonathan Cooper	C/G	North Carolina
26	GB	Tyler Eifert	TE	Notre Dame
27	HOU	Xavier Rhodes	CB	Florida State
28	DEN	Desmond Trufant	CB	Washington
29	NE	Tavon Austin	WR	West Virginia
30	ATL	Zach Ertz	TE	Stanford
31	SF	Jonathan Jenkins	DT	Georgia
32	BAL	Sam Montgomery	DE	LSU

*St. Louis gets the 22nd pick from the RG3 trade from last year

We’ll be back with more updates as the Combine continues this weekend. There’s still plenty of time for moving and shaking. Plus, free agency will begin shortly, so team needs will be changing by the day.


So that's about all I have for you right now. I will keep working on my draft reports, and also, I will be coming out with my annual fantasy baseball preview shortly. Take care everyone! Peace.

~Mell-o