Saturday, September 29, 2007

NFL Week 4/College Week 5 Predictions

"I should have known better with a girl like you
That I would love everything that you do."


Much more on the impending playoff run for the Sox. Now, let's get right into the predictions (man I wish I had got my South Florida pick in earlier...damn):


Penn St. vs. Illinois: Again, Penn St. screwed me over last week (also, Michigan continues to befuddle me...anyone know what's going on in Ann Arbor?...but hey, at least they're actually playing on the road this week). Please, please, please tell me Penn St. can beat Illinois. If the Illini win this game, I am seriously going to consider never betting on a Big 10 game for the rest of the year. So, with all that said, I'll take the Nittany Lions (W, -3).

Louisville vs. N.C. State: I know the Cardinals have had their struggles the last two weeks, but they still have Brian Brohm, and one of the most high-powered offenses in the entire country. After giving up 42 to Clemson, who actually has less offensively to bring to the table than Louisville. I really have to believe that the Cardinals can't lose three in a row, and have back-to-back losses against really bad teams. I like Louisville (W, -8.5).

Michigan vs. Northwestern: Did I mention Michigan was on the road? Northwestern is apparently...bad? I guess that's the best way to describe that. They got destroyed by the Buckeyes last week, and again, that Duke loss stands out in my head. Still, for whatever reason, I don't think Michigan can cover this spread. I'll take the Wolverines straight up (W), but I'll take Northwestern to cover (+17.5).

Florida Atlantic vs. Kentucky: The Wildcats again impressed me last week, and considering they are back at home against a lesser opponent, I expect them to go lights out against FAU. Andre Woodson continues to march UK higher and higher up the SEC and the national polls, and it won't stop this week. I like Kentucky (W, -24).

Clemson vs. Georgia Tech: Clemson has been running real good so far, going undefeated in their first four decisions. GA Tech has been stumbling ever since their loss to BC in Atlanta. Last week, they lost to UVA at Charlottesville. So now the Ramblin' Reck have a chance at redemption in a big ACC game. For whatever reason, I think they will be able to bounce back and beat the Tigers (W, +3).

Indiana vs. Iowa: Iowa made a game of it last week on the road against Wisconsin, while Indiana lost at home against Illinois in their first conference game. Sure, this has the makings of a trap game, but that doesn't mean I'm going against the Hawkeyes. In fact, I expect them to win big (W, -10.5).

UCLA vs. Oregon St.: This one has disaster written all over it for the Bruins. After getting shalacked two weeks ago on the road against Utah. Oregon St. played the Utes in their home opener and won by 17. This an example of two teams being great at home, and horrendous on the road. I'll take Oregon St. (W, +2).

Michigan St. vs. Wisconsin: Well Spartans, here's a chance to prove your worth as a top 25 team. The only thing that is surprising about MSU's 4-0 start is that people are "surprised" by it. They have played no one in the conference, and for that matter, no one in general. I'm supposed to judge the merits of a team because they beat Pitt at home and Notre Dame on the road? Again, this is another example of a time where, if the outcome goes against me, I'll totally be eating my words. I'll again take the Badgers at home (W, -7), despite losing ATS last week.

California vs. Oregon: For whatever reason, I see this game being absolutely screwy, which means that I'm going to hedge my bets here. Cal beat up on Oregon last year, but it seems as though Oregon is a different team now. The line on this game went up three points this week...interesting. Anyway, I see a shootout, but I like the Ducks to win (W), and the Bears to cover (+6.5).

Mississippi St. vs. USC: Homecoming baby! Carolina didn't look too hot against LSU, and with Brinkley gone for the year, they are vulnerable against the run. The Bulldogs have Anthony Dixon running very well this year, and Miss St. also managed to beat Auburn on the road. Again, it's becoming harder and harder to find an "easy" game to play in the SEC, so the Cocks better be on full alert for this game. With Smelley now the man behind center, I see SC having a big day at Williams Brice. Go Cocks (W, -13.5)!

Last Week: SU: 6-3, ATS: 5-4, O/U: 1-0
Season: SU: 17-9, ATS: 11-12-3


New England vs. Cincinnati:
So looking at the "intelligence report" on this game, here's a question: When did you ever think the Pats would have the advantage in the receiver position? I thought that was interesting (and despite my incredibly huge biasness, probably wrong). In any event, the Pats have the advantage pretty much everywhere else (again, maybe running backs could go to Cincy). For a road game against a perennial playoff team, it's a fairly big spread for the Pats to cover, and for whatever reason, I'm thinking that this game may actually be close...well, at least for a little while. Then, I'm thinking that the Pats will literally run away with this game. The Laurence Maroney "questionable" thing is kind of bothering me, but in any event, the Bengals just don't have the defense to stop the Pats. Remember last year? And speaking of which, why do we play Cincy on the road again? That's kind of whack. Anyway, let the good times roll (W, -7.5).

UPDATE: I just saw Papelbon running around the infield with a Bud Light box on his head drinking champagne...consider him inactive for tonight's game.

Oakland vs. Miami: Please tell me Culpepper is starting this game, because if he is, then this is an easy "revenge" game to pick. Miami's D has been terrible so far, and LaMont Jordan has had a very nice start to his season so far. The Dolphins have been stuck in neutral, and for whatever reason, I think the Raiders will actually be decent for the rest of the year. I'll take the Raiders on the road (W, +4).

Green Bay vs. Minnesota: In the last three years, Green Bay has not been favored on the road, and also, this is the first game that they have been favored in. That's quite an amazing stat. Another one is that the Vikings are 0-4 as a home. Here's my theory on this: Cinderellas do not win when they are picked to do so. Also, Kelly Holcomb is a better QB than Tavaris Jackson, so I like the Vikings (W, +2) at home to finally end the Pack's hot streak.

Houston vs. Atlanta: Joey Harrington is still the quarterback, Matt Schaub has the "revenge" factor going for him also, and even though Andre Johnson's out for Houston, DeAngelo Hall is probably going to miss part of the game after going schitzoid against Carolina last week. Also, the quest to see an 0-16 team pretty much resides on the Falcons, so hopefully, Byron Leftwich never figures this offense out, and they keep him on the bench for the rest of the year. My sleeper on the road (W, -3).

And now, a more abbreviated version of the picks because of Oktoberfest...sorry...

Buffalo vs. New York: Buffalo (W, +4)...they can't really go 0-4 right?

Baltimore vs. Cleveland: Cleveland (W, +4)...the Ravens are horrendous on the road, plus it stands to reason that I have absolutely no chance picking a Browns game right, so why not?

St. Louis vs. Dallas: Dallas (W, -13)...I said it all along, and I'm not going back on it. The Rams have screwed me over so far, so hopefully, picking against them will jump-start the team.

Chicago vs. Detroit: Chicago (W, -3)...Ok, this is still Bears vs. Lions right? Everyone's picking the Lions...I mean I don't get it. Maybe I'm missing something. The Bears got beat up by Dallas, but...I mean...they're still the Bears...let's just say I'm looking for a bounce back.

Seattle vs. San Francisco: San Francisco (W, +2)...when I saw this game, it was basically like getting hit below the belt...oooooohhhh! I have absolutely no idea where to go, so I'll take another home 'dog (maybe Sports Guy has a point).

Tampa Bay vs. Carolina: Tampa Bay (W, +3)...because I am figuring out that Carolina is an entirely different team at home (horrible) than they are on the road (halfway decent)...once again, I just work for the Panthers, definitely not a fan (mostly because all their fans hate the Pats, and if they get blown out, I don't have to sit in traffic after the game because everyone's already gone after the third quarter).

Pittsburgh vs. Arizona: Arizona (W, +6)...the Steelers aren't that good, plus, the whole Baltimore game 'Zona played last week makes me feel like they may have something with Kurt Warner (it turns out all he needed was an All-Pro running back and two All-Pro receivers to look like he did with St. Louis...that's all), why do I feel like the head coaches should be on opposite benches? Whisenhunt should have been the coach of the Steelers, and the fact that he isn't adds further motivation for his team to show up big Sunday.

Kansas City vs. San Diego: San Diego (W), KC (+12)...the Chargers need this one real, real bad; they've looked terrible so far this year...speaking of terrible, here come the Chiefs...

"You play to cover the game!"

Denver vs. Indianapolis: Indianapolis (W, -10)...this is one of those games where I feel like the Colts are just going to pound away in the second half and create a huge lead..."the Broncos corners will have their hands full" is arguably the biggest understatement of the year, but still probably second to "Wes Welker and Randy Moss will make nice additions to this year's team."

Philadelphia vs. New York: New York (W, +3)...last week aside, it's going to be an incredibly tough proposition for me to pick the Giants this year, but I feel like this week will be let-down city for Philly, and that they pretty much scored enough for two weeks against I hate picking the Giants...I really have to root for them? Ugh.

Last Week: SU: 11-5, ATS: 7-6-3
Season: SU: 33-15, ATS: 22-20-6

Wow I suck.



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