Thursday, November 01, 2007

NFL Week 9/College Week 10 Predictions

"Don't you know, things can change
Things will go your way."

Last week was another brick wall in the NFL...I just can't figure those late games out. So, now I'm just trying to stay level par, because after doing some conductive research, I found out I'm one of the better "expert" handicappers on the web. So, with that being said, I really need to step it up this week.


Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech:
VA Tech was on the short end of another BC miracle last week, and now, all of a sudden, they're underdogged on the road. I mean I completely understand that their spirits were definitely broken by that game, but nevertheless, I feel it's hard to pass on the Hokies this week. VA Tech (W, +3).

Cincinnati vs. South Florida: South Florida screwed me over last week, and now, they return home to face the Bearcats. Both started 6-0, but have been garbage in Big East play, both losing their last two conference games. The Bulls will be without their top two receivers and two of their offensive linemen. Hey, why not go for a revenge pick? Also, you know one of these teams is going to lose three straight. Cincinnati (W, +5).

Wake Forest vs. Virginia: UVA has a bunch of injuries on their side, basically all stemming from last week's shocker in Raleigh when the Cavs lost to NC State after winning seven straight, most of them by one or two points. Wake has won six in a row after their home loss to Nebraska. This one should be a barn-burner, but in the end, I like the Wahoos to bounce back. Virginia (W, +1.5).

Maryland vs. UNC: Why do I get the distinct impression that Maryland is already looking ahead to BC next week? UNC plays really well at home, believe me. The last time these teams met, the Terps won 33-30. Still, in a tight game, I'm not so sure about siding with T.J. Yates. This guy is way to up-and-down for me to put any dependability on the Heels. Plus, they play really well at home, but they have yet to get over the hump against good teams. Who knows? Maybe this is the week. But I'm going to go with my ACC darkhorse. Maryland (W, +3).

Purdue vs. Penn St.: Well, the Nittany Lions couldn't pull it out for me last week, which further implies that this Ohio St. team is probably better than the team who was National runners-up last year. In any event, Penn St. has won ATS in their last three meetings with Purdue. The Boilmakers are going to have a real tough time slowing down Penn St.'s rushing offense. Penn St. (W, -7).

LSU vs. Alabama: Five 'Bama players will be serving suspension for this game, and also, LSU's hybrid QB, Ryan Perrilloux, will be sitting for academic purposes. Oh, and how could I not mention the whole "Saban Bowl" aspect, with Nick Saban coaching against LSU for the first time since the Tigers won the national title. Glenn Dorsey's health is going to be a big factor in this game. LSU will again look to WR Early Doucet to come back to his preseason first-round NFL grade and help QB Matt Flynn out. LSU (W, -7).

Michigan vs. Michigan St.: As I said awhile back, Michigan still has a shot to win the Big 10 Championship and make a trip to the Rose Bowl. After winning against Minnesota, Michigan will return both Mike Hart and Chad Henne from injuries. The Spartans are 1-4 in their last five, and 2-3 ATS at home this year. Sure, this is a big in-state rivalry for the Paul Bunyan trophy, but I see the Wolverines continuing their roll. Michigan (W, -4).

Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma: Normally, I stay away from these types of games. You know, spreads of three touchdowns. However, this one I see as a total blowout. The Sooners are coming off a bye, and yes, they've lost four in a row ATS, but the Sooners are now in the midst of a national title run, and considering they are playing this game at night in Norman, I really like Stoops and Co. Oklahoma (W, -20).

Florida St. vs. Boston College: BC again needs to win out in order to have any shot at playing for the national title. FSU has some quality wins against 'Bama and at Colorado, but realistically, I don't see them getting it done at Chestnut Hill. Eagles beware though. The last time these teams met in the Bay State, the Seminoles pulled off a 28-17 victory. BC (W, -6).

Oregon St. vs. Southern Cal: Booty returns for the Trojans offense, and the Beavers will likely be without RB Yvenson Bernard after he sprained his shoulder last week against Stanford. Also, Oregon St. won this game last year, but they do not play well at the Rose Bowl. Southern Cal (W, -15).

Last Week: SU: 4-6, ATS: 5-5
Season: SU: 45-31, ATS: 42-31-3


New England vs. Indianapolis:
Sure, the hype machine is in full affect on this game, and deservantly so. You will not find a better matchup of two NFL teams this year. The preview is right underneath this post, and basically everyone has exasperated any kind of opinion that could possibly be said. I picked against the Pats ATS the last two weeks, and they made me look foolish. While I don't think they'll be running up the score, I still think there is so much on the line that the Pats are going to be on the Colts from the get-go. Pats (W, -6).

Washington vs. New York: This game is interesting, because Fred Smoot is questionable to play, and Carlos Rodgers is now on IR with a knee injury. Meanwhile, the Jets will lose Laveranues Coles for this game after suffering a concussion last week against Buffalo. Still, the Kellen Clemens era will officially begin this week. I guess Mangini was waiting for it to be almost physically impossible for the Jets to make the playoffs. Oh, also, Jonathan Vilma was placed on IR for the Jets. I want to pick the Jets...I really do...'Skins (W, -3.5).

Green Bay vs. Kansas City: Now you can go either way on this one, but here's my thinking: Tom Brady exorcised his Redskins demons last week, and has now beaten every NFL team. Brett Favre has beaten every team but...that's right, Kansas City. So, I'm liking the karma around this one. Green Bay (W, +2.5).

Arizona vs. Tampa Bay: Tampa lost a heartbreaker last week to Jacksonville at home, and the Cards are coming off a bye. 'Zona is actually quite bad coming off a bye (1-3 ATS since '05). I'm a big fan of the bounce back game too. Tampa Bay (W, -3).

Carolina vs. Tennessee: The Panthers obviously need Vinny back under center, as David Carr has come full circle as a total bust as a #1 overall pick. Still, I have to believe this insanity is going to end (the Panthers winning every game on the road, losing every one at home). Also, this is actually a quality opponent. Tennessee (W, -4).

San Francisco vs. Atlanta: Frank Gore re-injured his ankle last week in the Niners' blowout loss to the Saints. Plus, Alge Crumpler will return from injury this week. Both these teams really stink, but the Niners are stinking it up just a little bit more. Plus, why not root against a team that is giving the Pats their first round pick? Flame on! Atlanta (W, -3).

Jacksonville vs. New Orleans: Both teams won impressively last week, with the Saints getting a blowout road win, and the Jaguars winning a tight one using a backup QB at Tampa. Marcus Stroud has been suspended for four games, and backup DT Tony McDaniel was placed on IR. However, the Saints have yet to really play anyone the quality of Jacksonville at home. Plus, they have been horrendous against the AFC South. Jacksonville (W, +3.5).

Denver vs. Detroit: Cutler is still very inexperienced on the road, as the Broncos have only played two games on the road this year. However, Kitna's Halloween costume may make the big guy upstairs a little curious about the QB calling the Lions "God's team." So, in a reversal of fortunes, and the expected return of Travis Henry, the Broncos will bounce back this week. Denver (W, +3).

Cincinnati vs. Buffalo: This was one I really didn't have to analyze too much. Buffalo is finally getting Lee Evans involved in the passing game. Meanwhile, the Bengals have fallen apart. Also, playing in Buffalo is no picnic. Buffalo (W, +1).

San Diego vs. Minnesota: All you really have to do is look at the Vikings' last game against the Eagles to realize that the Chargers can exploit the Vikings' dominant run defense. Brian Westbrook only ran for about 40 yards, but they were able to get him involved in the passing game, which is what I expect the Chargers to do with Tomlinson. San Diego has been rolling on a river ever since they finally decided to get LT involved in the offense. Sure he's a crier, but he's still the best back in the league. Also, Jamal Williams is expected to return, and the impact he has on the run defense is astronomical. San Diego (W, -7).

Seattle vs. Cleveland: Cleveland has played well at home this year (3-1), but Seattle is coming off a bye week, and have done very well with an extra week of rest. Matt Hasselbeck should be back to full health, and Jamal Lewis being banged up means that Cleveland will be a one-dimensional team, leaving Derek Anderson open to the pass rush. Seattle (W, +1).

Houston vs. Oakland: Hmmm...interesting. Texans are great through the air. Oakland is great defending the pass. Houston is horrendous running the ball. Oakland cannot stop the run at all. The difference will be if the Texans can stop Oakland's ground game, which I don't think they'll be able to do. Oakland (W, -3).

Dallas vs. Philadelphia: Despite Dallas being an extremely talented team, they are only favored by a field goal in this game. Both these teams' last opponents were the Vikings. Dallas beat them by 10 at home, while the Eagles took care of business last week at the Metrodome, winning by a touchdown. However, with Dallas coming off a bye, and the Eagles going 0-2 in the division, I like the 'Boys on the road. Dallas (W, -3).

Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh: Despite having a huge overall advantage, I think the Steelers will squeak out a victory here. Trevor Pryce, Steve McNair, and Todd Heap will return for the Ravens, and I'm not so keen on taking 9+ spreads in the NFL. The last time these two played on Monday night in Pittsburgh, the Steelers won by just a point. Pittsburgh (W), Baltimore (+9.5).

Last Week: SU: 8-5, ATS: 6-7
Season: SU: 77-39, ATS: 61-46-9

See you when I see you. Peace.


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