But me myself I got nothing to prove."
Well this is it. Everyone has been looking forward to this game every since I turned 22 (January 21, 2007...AFC Championship Game). The Pats get another shot at the Colts. Now that I can finally focus on this game, I am real excited about seeing how this one will turn out. This is for #1 in the AFC. Forget about being the best team in the league. I already know the Pats are the best team in the league. If the Colts beat the Pats on Sunday, I still won't be convinced that they're better than us (unless they run the score up on us, which would be a little ironic I suppose). So, without futher ado, let's get into it. Again, hopefully you will be seeing this on Patriots Insider. By the way, apparently, my stuff has been good enough to hit the "premium" section, but fear not. If you set up a free account on Patriots Insider, you will have access to my articles, as well as all the other great staff members that make contributions.
Pats Look For Revenge In Their Return Trip To Indianapolis
"Be prepared for hysterics and even a fainting spell. Better have smelling salts handy and a nip of brandy." ~Witness for the Prosecution
Trends:
New England:
Since 2005:
• 3-2 vs. AFC South opponents
• 12-5 after a home game
• 10-2 as a road favorie (current line: NE -6)
• 24-6 playing on turf
• 18-4 after allowing less than 17 points in the previous week (last week: 7)
Indianapolis:
Since 2005:
• 18-1 at home
• Has not been underdogged at home
• 5-0 vs. AFC East opponents
• 12-2 when the over/under is over 47.5 (currently 57)
• 2-0 vs. New England
Last Meeting: 1/21/07 AFC Championship Game: Indianapolis 38, New England 34 (RCA Dome)
Last Regular Season Meeting: 11/5/06: Indianapolis 27, New England 20 (Gillette Stadium)
Interesting Fact: The meeting between the 8-0 Patriots and the 7-0 Colts will be the first time in the history of the NFL that two teams had met this late in the season that were both undefeated.
Stats:
TOTAL OFFENSE (NE/IND)
POINTS/GAME 41.4 (1) 32.0 (3)
YARDS/GAME 439.5 (1) 399.0 (3)
TURNOVERS 7 (3) 5 (1)
PENALTIES 37 (10) 29 (2)
PENALTY YARDS 305 (12) 183 (2)
3RD DOWN 48.8% (13) 53.9% (2)
4TH DOWN 66.7% (2) 66.7% (2)
SCORING EFFICIENCY 57.8% (1) 54.9% (2)
TOTAL DEFENSE (NE/IND)
OPP. POINTS/GAME 15.9 (5) 14.6 (2)
OPP. TOTAL YARDS/GAME 265.8 (3) 272.9 (4)
OPP. 3RD DOWN 28.7% (1) 46.2% (22)
OPP. 4TH DOWN 66.7% (29) 50.0% (28)
OPP. SCORING EFFICIENCY 21.3% (1) 24.6% (4)
Opponents’ Grades and Analysis:
PASS OFFENSE
QB PEYTON MANNING A+
WR MARVIN HARRISON A+
WR REGGIE WAYNE A
WR ANTHONY GONZALEZ B-
TE DALLAS CLARK B+
TE BEN UTECHT B-
It’s no secret that Peyton Manning has been one of the best signal-callers not only of the past decade, but of all time. Manning’s ability to confuse defenses at the line of scrimmage and break down defensive coverages and blitzes has been well-documented. Of course, a lot of his success has been because of the weapons he has utilized, mainly Harrison and Wayne. While Harrison has been out the past few games with a bruised knee, Reggie Wayne has filled in tremendously in his absence. Wayne could easily be a #1 receiver on just about any other team in the league. He showed he can catch the ball over the middle and on deep balls last week in the game I went to when the Colts played Carolina at Charlotte. Wayne could not be covered by the Panthers’ corners, and went for 168 yards on seven receptions, including a 59-yard bomb down the sidelines. With Harrison likely coming back this week, the gold standard of receiving duos will be reunited. Another facet of the passing offense that Manning utilizes is the middle of the field. While Harrison and Wayne occupy the defensive secondary downfield, it leaves the middle wide open for tight ends Dallas Clark and Ben Utecht to roam free under the coverage. Both these offenses are so effective because there are so many options for both quarterbacks to go to, making it tough on a defense to commit their attention to just one man.
RUSH OFFENSE
RB JOSEPH ADDAI A-
LT TONY UGOH C
LG RYAN LILJA B+
C JEFF SATURDAY A+
RG JAKE SCOTT A-
RT RYAN DIEM A-
Addai has really impressed me this season, and especially in the game I saw him in last week. The whole “sophomore slump” precedent has not had any effect on Addai this year. Against the Panthers, Addai was able to pick up four to five yards almost every time after initial contact, an attribute all the great backs possess. This will be a great contest between two second-year running backs with Addai and Laurence Maroney. The Colts run a somewhat unusual offense in that they do not have a fullback on the field to lead-block for Addai, and honestly, they really don’t need one with Jeff Saturday at center. Saturday has become the best center in football, and is so explosive off the ball that few nose tackles have the ability to stay near the line when Addai runs through. In addition, the line will be solid for years to come with Lilja, Scott, and Diem all being terrific, and all 28 and under. The big question mark will definitely come with Tony Ugoh, who simply has not been effective this year. It was tough on the Colts when Tarik Glenn suddenly retired during the preseason, and they simply did not have enough time to find a suitable replacement. Richard Seymour is still recovering, and looked rusty last week. If he can get himself back to “game speed” for Sunday, this will be the biggest mismatch on either side of the ball.
RUSH DEFENSE
RDE DWIGHT FREENEY A+
RDT EDWARD JOHNSON C+
LDT RAHEEM BROCK B
LDE ROBERT MATHIS A-
ROLB TYJUAN HAGLER C
MLB GARY BRACKETT B
LOLB ROCKY BOIMAN C
Freeney has always been a nuisance against the Patriots, and for that matter, the entire league. On the turf, the Freeney/Matt Light matchup has been completely one-sided, with Freeney able to use his size and speed to blow by Light and cause havoc to Tom Brady. Robert Mathis is also a tremendous pass rusher on the other side. Nick Kaczur will be another guy that will have his hands full on Sunday trying to stop Mathis. Ed Johnson and Robert Mathis have been good at stuffing the middle, but if the Patriots run the ball, look for them to go after the middle of the line, as it is next to impossible to get to the outside with the speed the Colts have on the ends. Gary Brackett is a very underrated middle linebacker, and will be called upon to get Maroney and anyone else who chooses to attack the middle of the field. The outside linebackers will be used mostly on blitzes to add to the pressure coming from the outside. Again, the middle of the field is going to be key for both the Patriots’ run and pass offense. While Vinny Testaverde was throwing for the Panthers, he effectively used short passes over the middle to drive Carolina all the way down the field on their opening drive for a touchdown.
PASS DEFENSE
RCB MARLIN JACKSON B+
FS ANTIONE BETHEA B+
SS BOB SANDERS A+
RCB KELVIN HAYDEN B-
Bob Sanders is finally getting the respect that he deserves. After flying under the radar for the last two seasons, for whatever reason, Sanders is now heralded as one of the best secondary players in the league. Sanders adds a terrific dynamic in terms of aiding the run defense, but also lends himself to making the big hit in the passing game. Despite both their starting cornerbacks from last year’s Super Bowl team now off the team, Marlin Jackson has been tremendous this year. However, his biggest test will come this week trying to cover Randy Moss. The same goes for Hayden, who will likely be lining up opposite Donte’ Stallworth or Wes Welker. Bethea will do everything he can to try and help the young corners out, but it will be tough to account for all the targets Brady will have on the field.
Advantages:
When New England Has The Ball:
NE OFFENSE IND DEFENSE ADV.
RUN YARDS/GAME 135.8 (8) 107.4 (13) PUSH
YARDS/CARRY 4.2 (14) 4.1 (17) PUSH
RUSHING FIRST DOWNS 76 (1) 52 (25) NE
RUSHING FUMBLES 2 (8) 3 (20) NE
PASS YARDS/GAME 303.8 (1) 165.4 (1) PUSH
COMPLETION % 73.6% (1) 65.7% (26) NE
PASSING FIRST DOWNS 125 (1) 67 (3) PUSH
QB RATING 133.2 (1) 69.9 (3) PUSH
INTERCEPTIONS 3 (3) 9 (9) NE
SACKS 8 (3) 12 (22) NE
Advantage: New England
When Indianapolis Has The Ball:
IND OFFENSE NE DEFENSE ADV.
RUN YARDS/GAME 140.3 (5) 87.0 (6) PUSH
YARDS/CARRY 4.4 (10) 4.2 (22) IND
RUSHING FIRST DOWNS 69 (2) 42 (15) IND
RUSHING FUMBLES 1 (3) 0 (31) IND
PASS YARDS/GAME 258.7 (6) 181.5 (5) PUSH
COMPLETION % 65.4% (8) 59.7 (11) PUSH
PASSING FIRST DOWNS 89 (11) 86 (23) IND
QB RATING 102.5 (2) 73.0 (5) PUSH
INTERCEPTIONS 3 (3) 11 (4) PUSH
SACKS 5 (2) 22 (5) PUSH
Advantage: Indianapolis
Matchup Of The Game: Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis vs. Matt Light, Nick Kaczur, and Whoever Else Can Possibly Block Them
This one bares repeating because of how absolutely monumental this one is. Unless Matt Light got infinitely times better than he was in January, Freeney will likely have his way with him. Light is an above average tackle, but Freeney could be one of the most explosive ends of all time, and simply overmatches Light on the fast track in Indy. Mathis is another speed guy, and it will be tough for Kaczur to keep up with him coming around the end. What I look for is the Patriots to use a lot of sets with Kyle Brady lining up on the left side to help Light out, and also, a mixture of Maroney, Heath Evans, and Kevin Faulk to help out on the strong side with not only blocking, but being decoys to distract Mathis from getting after Brady. If the Pats can neutralize these two forces, it will allow Brady to keep having plenty of time in the pocket to read Indy’s defense, and attack the middle of the field, which is what New England will be looking to do right off the bat.
Key Injuries:
New England:
• Eugene Wilson: Questionable (ankle)
• Benjamin Watson: Questionable (ankle)
• Sammy Morris: Doubtful (chest)
Indianapolis:
• Tony Ugoh: Questionable (foot)
• Marvin Harrison: Questionable (knee)
• Marlin Jackson: Day-To-Day (neck)
New England Keys To Victory:
1. Protection For Brady: Sure, it was brought up in the “Opponents’ Grades and Analysis,” and in the “Matchup Of The Game,” but there simply is no limit to how much emphasis can be put on this. In all the games played against the Colts, and more so at Indianapolis, the ends repeatedly get around the tackles and put pressure on Brady. Ever since Indy drafted Freeney, it has been like this. Again, if the Pats can figure out a way to at least slow the pass rush down, the Colts will be almost helpless against the pass attack of the Patriots.
2. Attack The Middle: Clearly, the middle of the field is where most of the damage can be done on the Colts’ defense. This is true not only for passing, but also for running the ball. Maroney will be running most of his attempts in between the tackles to avoid the outside pressure. Also, I expect a huge day for Wes Welker, who will be targeted over the middle like he has been all season.
3. Keep Attacking Manning: The Pats had a huge lead at halftime in last year’s AFC Championship game, but decided to only rush a maximum of four in the second half, and played a soft zone which Manning picked apart. If the Patriots had kept up their level of pressure on Manning from the first half into the second, who knows what the outcome could have been? In any event, New England has to keep trying to get to Manning, mixing up their schemes to try and at least give Manning another couple of seconds of indecisiveness. If you let Manning sit in the pocket and pick apart a defense, he will put up his normal, gaudy numbers that helped the Colts come back in January to go to the Super Bowl. If the Patriots want the Super Bowl to run through Foxboro, they will need to stop Manning from having a big game.
Indianapolis Keys To Victory:
1. Bob Sanders: This Indy team is a completely different one without Sanders’ presence, and it showed last year. After being the worst rush defense for most of last year while Sanders was sidelined, he returned just in time for the playoffs, where he was a key figure in stopping Larry Johnson, Corey Dillon, and Thomas Jones in the Colts’ three playoff victories. Sanders was integral in both Colts wins against the Pats last year, and if the Colts are going to try and contain the #1 offense in the league, Sanders is going to have to step up again and make his presence known early and often.
2. Test Richard Seymour: Seymour is obviously not back to full strength, and while Tony Ugoh, the weakest link in the Colts’ offensive line, will be going up against Seymour, the Colts should still see how well the All-Pro defensive end can maneuver. I anticipate a lot of running to the left side of the line, which could also involve pulling Jeff Saturday and Jeff Scott over to drive the running game. If Seymour cannot play up to his normal, outstanding ways, then the Colts will be able to establish a strong running attack that will set up the rest of their offense.
3. Spread The Ball Around On Offense: If Manning starts only targeting one or two receivers, the defense will be able to key up on them, and it may be difficult for Manning to keep the chains moving. However, if Harrison is able to go, this should be no problem in terms of getting multiple receivers involved. What Manning likes to do is establish his outside targets right from the beginning. Even if no points come from it, Manning likes to spread the defense out to open up the middle of the field, where Dallas Clark has become so good at taking advantage of. Also, it helps the inside draw play to Addai when the linebackers are forced to keep track of the receivers split out.
Game Time: 4:15 (CBS), RCA Dome, Indianapolis, IN
Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms
Can't wait 'til Sunday. Peace.
~Mell-o
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