So far, not so hot for the bowl game picks, but hey, I've basically been .500 with all my picks so far, why should this be any different. Here comes round two:
Tuesday, December 30
Humanitarian Bowl: Maryland vs. Nevada (4:30, ESPN)
Head to Head
| Matchup | Terrapins Offense | Wolf Pack Defense |
 |  | |
| Points/Game | 20.1 (195) | 31.5 (201) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 134.5 (146) | 74.5 (6) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 207.4 (122) | 321.1 (244) |
| Total Yards/Game | 341.9 (144) | 395.6 (188) |
| Third Down Pct. | 40.4% (110) | 38.9% (127) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 53.3% (85) | 29.6% (134) |
| Sacks | 24 (140) | 33 (26) |
| Sack Yards | -129 (81) | -241 (19) |
| Rushing TDs | 15 (152) | 14 (71) |
| Passing TDs | 13 (168) | 29 (236) |
| Carries/Game | 396 (165) | 338 (8) |
| Yards/Carry | 4.1 (110) | 2.6 (7) |
| Completion Pct. | 57.5% (114) | 53.9% (51) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 6.7 (135) | 8.0 (217) |
| Pass Rating | 118.8 (156) | 135.2 (178) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 92 | 77.9 |
| Matchup | Terrapins Defense | Wolf Pack Offense |
| | |
| Points/Game | 21.4 (69) | 37.8 (14) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 149.4 (140) | 291.4 (5) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 205.6 (127) | 219.2 (97) |
| Total Yards/Game | 355.0 (130) | 510.6 (5) |
| Third Down Pct. | 36.1% (75) | 40.1% (114) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 55.0% (184) | 50.0% (228) |
| Sacks | 26 (75) | 16 (56) |
| Sack Yards | -190 (68) | -129 (93) |
| Rushing TDs | 11 (31) | 37 (10) |
| Passing TDs | 17 (113) | 19 (90) |
| Carries/Game | 454 (155) | 560 (19) |
| Yards/Carry | 3.9 (104) | 6.2 (3) |
| Completion Pct. | 61.6% (184) | 54.2% (182) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 6.5 (82) | 7.1 (99) |
| Pass Rating | 127.1 (134) | 127.3 (109) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 76 | 51.1 |
Simulations:
- Final Score: Nevada 33, Maryland 30
- Nevada: Kaepernick: 159 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Taua/Kaepernick/Fragger: 32 rushes, 213 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 3 sacks, 4 TOs
- Turner: 253 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; Scott: 17 rushes, 89 yards,1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs
I love a team that can just run all over teams. Nevada is my kind of team. The QB is averaging 83 yards a sim on the ground. Maryland is not too hot against the run, so there's an interesting combination. The key will be time of possession for Nevada and keeping Maryland's pass attack on the sidelines. Nevada is brutal against the pass. What's interesting is how much better Nevada plays when rested than Maryland. In the last three years, Nevada is 6-0 ATS in the last three years with a bye week and 12-5 ATS since '92. Maryland is 3-3 ATS and 11-14 ATS respectably.
Nevada (-2.5)
Texas Bowl: Western Michigan vs. Rice (8:00, NFL Network)
Head to Head
| Matchup | Broncos Offense | Owls Defense |
 |  | |
| Points/Game | 29.8 (70) | 34.9 (222) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 121.5 (176) | 192.9 (208) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 301.2 (16) | 273.8 (235) |
| Total Yards/Game | 422.7 (37) | 466.8 (236) |
| Third Down Pct. | 43.2% (64) | 47.1% (227) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 47.4% (119) | 58.3% (103) |
| Sacks | 23 (128) | 22 (126) |
| Sack Yards | -143 (100) | -192 (60) |
| Rushing TDs | 10 (206) | 24 (199) |
| Passing TDs | 35 (10) | 32 (240) |
| Carries/Game | 339 (224) | 442 (132) |
| Yards/Carry | 4.3 (90) | 5.2 (222) |
| Completion Pct. | 66.3% (8) | 57.7% (115) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 7.3 (84) | 7.6 (198) |
| Pass Rating | 148.2 (33) | 139.0 (198) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 62 | 123.7 |
| Matchup | Broncos Defense | Owls Offense |
| | |
| Points/Game | 23.8 (108) | 41.6 (10) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 140.9 (116) | 144.4 (119) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 249.4 (208) | 327.8 (9) |
| Total Yards/Game | 390.3 (180) | 472.3 (11) |
| Third Down Pct. | 40.2% (148) | 49.4% (16) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 56.0% (192) | 43.8% (38) |
| Sacks | 15 (194) | 26 (165) |
| Sack Yards | -105 (191) | -203 (195) |
| Rushing TDs | 18 (124) | 20 (96) |
| Passing TDs | 17 (115) | 44 (3) |
| Carries/Game | 440 (126) | 412 (145) |
| Yards/Carry | 3.8 (92) | 4.2 (99) |
| Completion Pct. | 56.2% (166) | 65.7% (23) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 7.4 (181) | 8.4 (26) |
| Pass Rating | 126.3 (130) | 164.1 (11) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 103.2 | 43.9 |
Simulations:
- Final Score: Western Michigan 39, Rice 37
- Western Michigan: Hiller: 336 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT; West: 17 rushes, 85 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 3 sacks, 3 TOs
- Rice: Clement: 297 yards, 3 TDs, 1 TD; Clement/Ugokwe: 20 rushes, 92 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 4 TOs
Both teams can air the football out, and it won't be surprising to see both teams have 250-300 yards passing in this one. This one was tough because both teams are basically identical on offense and defense, with a slight edge to Western Michigan in terms of defense. Here's what did it for me: Rice will be playing a home game in Houston, and they have performed well on turf, going 7-2 ATS this season. Rice is also 4-0 ATS when the spread is +3 to -3.
Rice (-2.5)
Holiday Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Oregon (8:00, ESPN)
Head to Head
| Matchup | Cowboys Offense | Ducks Defense |
 |  | |
| Points/Game | 41.6 (9) | 28.0 (160) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 256.0 (12) | 119.4 (58) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 233.3 (82) | 263.6 (227) |
| Total Yards/Game | 489.3 (7) | 383.0 (174) |
| Third Down Pct. | 47.5% (24) | 40.3% (150) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 76.5% (4) | 41.2% (86) |
| Sacks | 13 (19) | 37 (7) |
| Sack Yards | -73 (14) | -225 (29) |
| Rushing TDs | 35 (14) | 15 (81) |
| Passing TDs | 24 (45) | 24 (211) |
| Carries/Game | 545 (23) | 466 (181) |
| Yards/Carry | 5.6 (12) | 3.1 (30) |
| Completion Pct. | 66.2% (161) | 58.1% (123) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 10.2 (2) | 6.6 (92) |
| Pass Rating | 174.7 (4) | 124.1 (118) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 19.6 | 78.5 |
| Matchup | Cowboys Defense | Ducks Offense |
| | |
| Points/Game | 26.9 (146) | 41.9 (8) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 123.8 (62) | 277.8 (8) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 268.5 (232) | 200.3 (133) |
| Total Yards/Game | 392.3 (184) | 478.2 (9) |
| Third Down Pct. | 39.6% (142) | 39.1% (126) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 70.8% (231) | 41.2% (168) |
| Sacks | 13 (208) | 18 (80) |
| Sack Yards | -78 (223) | -102 (47) |
| Rushing TDs | 16 (93) | 42 (4) |
| Passing TDs | 27 (231) | 19 (91) |
| Carries/Game | 374 (33) | 545 (24) |
| Yards/Carry | 4.0 (121) | 6.1 (4) |
| Completion Pct. | 62.5% (244) | 54.5% (178) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 6.5 (85) | 7.0 (105) |
| Pass Rating | 131.0 (159) | 125.7 (122) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 108.8 | 50.3 |
Simulations:
- Final Score: Oklahoma State 41, Oregon 35
- Oregon: Masoli: 188 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Johnson/Blount/Masoli: 31 rushes, 174 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 1 sack, 3 TOs
- Oklahoma State: Robinson: 199 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Hunter/Toston/Robinson: 34 rushes, 207 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 1 sack, 3 TOs
Both teams love to run the ball, but I really think that Oregon simply will have no answer for the Zac Robinson/Dez Bryant combination. Okie St. is #1 in the nation in terms of yards per pass. The Cowboys also play well as a favorite, going 6-1 ATS as a favorite this season. Oregon is 1-3 in its last four bowl games, while Okie St. has won its last two.
Oklahoma State (-3)
Wednesday, December 31
Armed Forces Bowl: Houston vs. Air Force (12:00, ESPN)
Head to Head
| Matchup | Cougars Offense | Falcons Defense |
 |  | |
| Points/Game | 41.2 (11) | 21.3 (65) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 161.0 (91) | 139.8 (110) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 414.1 (2) | 195.6 (105) |
| Total Yards/Game | 575.1 (1) | 335.3 (97) |
| Third Down Pct. | 50.6% (13) | 42.6% (181) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 50.0% (104) | 47.4% (169) |
| Sacks | 21 (97) | 33 (30) |
| Sack Yards | -139 (92) | -225 (30) |
| Rushing TDs | 20 (95) | 16 (97) |
| Passing TDs | 44 (2) | 14 (73) |
| Carries/Game | 374 (198) | 468 (187) |
| Yards/Carry | 5.2 (26) | 3.6 (66) |
| Completion Pct. | 67.4% (2) | 57.6% (112) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 8.6 (18) | 6.9 (124) |
| Pass Rating | 161.5 (15) | 122.3 (107) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 34.9 | 70.6 |
| Matchup | Cougars Defense | Falcons Offense |
| | |
| Points/Game | 31.2 (194) | 26.7 (105) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 169.5 (176) | 268.9 (9) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 249.1 (206) | 79.9 (241) |
| Total Yards/Game | 418.6 (209) | 348.8 (135) |
| Third Down Pct. | 42.5% (180) | 42.0% (83) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 26.3% (9) | 55.0% (120) |
| Sacks | 26 (78) | 3 (1) |
| Sack Yards | -187 (73) | -15 (1) |
| Rushing TDs | 20 (152) | 24 (56) |
| Passing TDs | 27 (233) | 9 (215) |
| Carries/Game | 480 (200) | 710 (2) |
| Yards/Carry | 4.2 (156) | 4.5 (67) |
| Completion Pct. | 60.8% (200) | 55.0% (171) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 7.5 (188) | 8.0 (41) |
| Pass Rating | 139.2 (201) | 136.9 (65) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 111.6 | 59.6 |
Simulations:
- Final Score: Houston 33, Air Force 26
- Air Force: Jefferson: 113 yards, 1 TD; 1 INT; Clark/Newell/Lumpkin: 34 rushes, 124 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 6 sacks, 4 TOs
- Houston: Keenum: 305 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT; Beall: 17 rushes, 79 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 1 sack, 3 TOs
Houston, once again, has a dynamic passing game, and is, surprisingly, leading the nation in total yards/game. However, you have to look at those defensive numbers in the simulations for Air Force. Six sacks? Four turnovers? That is tough to ignore. I'm factoring some other things in as well. Houston is atrocious ATS (4-7) and ATS as a favorite (2-6). Air Force is 7-4 ATS and 3-2 ATS as an underdog. Plus, they're 6-3 ATS on the grass. Did I mention it's the Armed Forces Bowl? How can you pick against a member of the Armed Forces in the Armed Forces Bowl?
Air Force (+4)
Sun Bowl: Oregon State vs. Pittsburgh (2:00, CBS)
Head to Head
| Matchup | Beavers Offense | Panthers Defense |
 |  | |
| Points/Game | 32.8 (44) | 23.0 (94) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 164.6 (89) | 127.8 (77) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 253.7 (44) | 193.0 (100) |
| Total Yards/Game | 418.3 (39) | 320.8 (64) |
| Third Down Pct. | 41.6% (91) | 35.9% (71) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 60.0% (53) | 38.9% (236) |
| Sacks | 34 (222) | 28 (64) |
| Sack Yards | -252 (232) | -183 (72) |
| Rushing TDs | 21 (85) | 14 (68) |
| Passing TDs | 25 (38) | 19 (154) |
| Carries/Game | 457 (87) | 421 (92) |
| Yards/Carry | 4.3 (91) | 3.6 (59) |
| Completion Pct. | 61.5% (59) | 55.0% (68) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 7.5 (71) | 6.6 (90) |
| Pass Rating | 138.6 (61) | 119.9 (94) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 59.4 | 63.8 |
| Matchup | Beavers Defense | Panthers Offense |
| | |
| Points/Game | 25.0 (125) | 29.3 (77) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 134.8 (92) | 143.3 (124) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 188.6 (83) | 212.9 (116) |
| Total Yards/Game | 323.3 (68) | 356.2 (121) |
| Third Down Pct. | 31.3% (23) | 36.7% (162) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 53.8% (175) | 72.2% (181) |
| Sacks | 16 (188) | 27 (174) |
| Sack Yards | -116 (172) | -154 (124) |
| Rushing TDs | 15 (82) | 29 (32) |
| Passing TDs | 15 (86) | 10 (199) |
| Carries/Game | 417 (87) | 455 (89) |
| Yards/Carry | 3.9 (107) | 3.8 (143) |
| Completion Pct. | 53.4% (41) | 57.8% (119) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 6.9 (121) | 7.2 (91) |
| Pass Rating | 119.5 (93) | 120.6 (149) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 70.1 | 86.4 |
Simulations:
- Final Score: Oregon State 27, Pittsburgh 24
- Pittsburgh: Stull: 214 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; McCoy/Stephens: 31 rushes, 139 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs
- Oregon State: Moevao: 254 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; McCants/Jenkins: 26 rushes, 78 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 4 sacks, 4 TOs
Look, picking a Dave Wanstedt coached team is hard enough to do, so I'm going to attempt to explain my reasoning. Again, I have to go to the running games. I know by now I'm sounding like a broken record, but when you run the ball effectively, you control the clock, you keep the defense on the field, and you set up the passing game (if you have one). Pittsburgh boasts one of the best backs in the nation in LeSean McCoy, who could potentially declare for the draft. In fact, he probably should declare considering he would be the first back taken most likely. On the other side of the ball, Oregon State will be without Jacquizz Rodgers, who is the Beavers' best back. Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning record this year, 3-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3, and 4-1 ATS when they are the underdog.
Pittsburgh (+3)
Music City Bowl: Boston College vs. Vanderbilt (3:30, ESPN)
Head to Head
| Matchup | Eagles Offense | Commodores Defense |
 |  | |
| Points/Game | 25.5 (123) | 20.1 (49) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 143.0 (125) | 145.0 (125) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 175.5 (172) | 173.7 (45) |
| Total Yards/Game | 318.5 (175) | 318.7 (60) |
| Third Down Pct. | 35.8% (169) | 36.2% (77) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 65.2% (26) | 50.0% (141) |
| Sacks | 31 (200) | 28 (68) |
| Sack Yards | -208 (198) | -187 (66) |
| Rushing TDs | 18 (115) | 13 (56) |
| Passing TDs | 15 (145) | 13 (51) |
| Carries/Game | 480 (63) | 453 (151) |
| Yards/Carry | 3.9 (131) | 3.8 (95) |
| Completion Pct. | 52.9% (107) | 54.6% (59) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 5.5 (214) | 6.4 (73) |
| Pass Rating | 104.2 (209) | 110.4 (42) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 98.7 | 52.6 |
| Matchup | Eagles Defense | Commodores Offense |
| | |
| Points/Game | 18.5 (31) | 19.4 (203) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 92.2 (16) | 138.2 (137) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 181.2 (61) | 122.8 (227) |
| Total Yards/Game | 273.4 (17) | 260.9 (232) |
| Third Down Pct. | 33.3% (38) | 33.7% (200) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 50.0% (132) | 50.0% (100) |
| Sacks | 18 (160) | 25 (152) |
| Sack Yards | -113 (177) | -175 (155) |
| Rushing TDs | 14 (67) | 13 (184) |
| Passing TDs | 9 (11) | 14 (160) |
| Carries/Game | 418 (90) | 435 (116) |
| Yards/Carry | 2.9 (20) | 3.8 (147) |
| Completion Pct. | 56.4% (185) | 49.2% (222) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 5.7 (21) | 4.9 (238) |
| Pass Rating | 98.7 (13) | 98.0 (221) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 47.2 | 122.5 |
Simulations:
- Final Score: Boston College 21, Vanderbilt 15
- BC: Davis: 152 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Harris/Haden: 20 rushes, 87 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 3 sacks, 4 TOs
- Vanderbilt: Adams: 141 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; Adams: 13 rushes, 29 yards; Defense: 3 sacks, 3 TOs
Ahh yes, the classic Boston College move: Lose a game that could put them in a meaningful bowl, then go to an inconsequential one against a team that they overmatch. Classic. Here are my concerns for BC. Vandy is good playing a team with a winning record (4-2 ATS) and great as an underdog (6-2 ATS). Another thing too is how long can this bowl win streak go on for BC? It seems like they've been winning bowl games since I was in 5th grade. Another thing is that 3.5 spread is scary. I feel like they'll win by a field goal and screw me here. Oh well.
Boston College (-3.5)
Insight Bowl: Kansas vs. Minnesota (5:30, NFL Network)
Head to Head
| Matchup | Jayhawks Offense | Golden Gophers Defense |
 |  | |
| Points/Game | 32.7 (48) | 23.3 (99) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 128.9 (157) | 146.8 (133) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 302.3 (14) | 231.6 (188) |
| Total Yards/Game | 431.3 (34) | 378.4 (163) |
| Third Down Pct. | 50.0% (14) | 37.7% (106) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 50.0% (94) | 46.2% (201) |
| Sacks | 22 (111) | 31 (41) |
| Sack Yards | -154 (122) | -209 (44) |
| Rushing TDs | 22 (77) | 12 (42) |
| Passing TDs | 28 (25) | 16 (98) |
| Carries/Game | 416 (140) | 429 (105) |
| Yards/Carry | 3.7 (159) | 4.1 (138) |
| Completion Pct. | 65.7% (18) | 57.3% (109) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 7.8 (48) | 7.3 (170) |
| Pass Rating | 146.2 (37) | 125.4 (123) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 49.9 | 80 |
| Matchup | Jayhawks Defense | Golden Gophers Offense |
| | |
| Points/Game | 29.5 (179) | 23.4 (155) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 126.7 (72) | 105.8 (202) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 275.5 (236) | 216.4 (109) |
| Total Yards/Game | 402.2 (194) | 322.3 (172) |
| Third Down Pct. | 41.8% (171) | 35.5% (173) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 45.5% (112) | 62.5% (125) |
| Sacks | 28 (60) | 28 (184) |
| Sack Yards | -213 (39) | -168 (143) |
| Rushing TDs | 20 (146) | 18 (117) |
| Passing TDs | 26 (222) | 14 (158) |
| Carries/Game | 368 (28) | 398 (163) |
| Yards/Carry | 4.1 (136) | 3.2 (200) |
| Completion Pct. | 61.3% (241) | 62.6% (48) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 6.8 (112) | 6.8 (125) |
| Pass Rating | 129.9 (152) | 128.0 (105) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 95.5 | 99 |
Simulations:
- Final Score: Kansas 31, Minnesota 22
- Minnesota: Weber: 221 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Eskridge: 13 rushes, 41 yards; Defense: 4 sacks, 3 TOs
- Kansas: Reesing: 280 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; Sharp: 14 rushes, 82 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 3 sacks, 3 TOs
This is one of those games that will kill me...you watch. I hate...hate Minnesota. They stink, and yet they were in the top 25 for like four weeks. Yet, they are just waiting in the weeds, ready to screw me in this game. Kansas should crush them, but I'm almost guaranteeing the Gophers will show up just to make me mad, and to start yelling "I can't believe they're losing to Minnesota!" at the TV (as it scrolls across the bottom line because I don't get NFL Network).
Kansas (-8.5)
Chick-Fil-A (Formerly Known As The Peach) Bowl: LSU vs. Georgia Tech (7:30, ESPN)
Head to Head
| Matchup | Tigers Offense | Yellow Jackets Defense |
 |  | |
| Points/Game | 30.3 (65) | 18.8 (37) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 167.3 (84) | 116.9 (51) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 204.5 (126) | 195.8 (106) |
| Total Yards/Game | 371.8 (97) | 312.7 (45) |
| Third Down Pct. | 38.0% (143) | 37.9% (110) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 37.5% (180) | 39.1% (114) |
| Sacks | 27 (168) | 32 (32) |
| Sack Yards | -171 (152) | -237 (23) |
| Rushing TDs | 23 (69) | 9 (19) |
| Passing TDs | 20 (80) | 19 (153) |
| Carries/Game | 460 (82) | 397 (57) |
| Yards/Carry | 4.4 (78) | 3.5 (54) |
| Completion Pct. | 51.9% (150) | 59.0% (143) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 6.7 (137) | 6.1 (44) |
| Pass Rating | 116.8 (170) | 116.8 (80) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 81 | 48.5 |
| Matchup | Tigers Defense | Yellow Jackets Offense |
| | |
| Points/Game | 25.9 (135) | 26.2 (110) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 105.7 (35) | 282.3 (7) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 220.8 (173) | 95.0 (239) |
| Total Yards/Game | 326.5 (74) | 377.3 (90) |
| Third Down Pct. | 32.1% (29) | 38.4% (136) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 43.8% (99) | 45.5% (178) |
| Sacks | 20 (141) | 18 (75) |
| Sack Yards | -170 (100) | -105 (55) |
| Rushing TDs | 17 (109) | 32 (20) |
| Passing TDs | 15 (88) | 5 (239) |
| Carries/Game | 381 (41) | 600 (15) |
| Yards/Carry | 3.3 (43) | 5.6 (11) |
| Completion Pct. | 54.8% (155) | 47.1% (233) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 6.6 (93) | 8.1 (36) |
| Pass Rating | 119.3 (91) | 118.8 (155) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 63.9 | 72.7 |
Simulations:
- Final Score: LSU 28, Georgia Tech 27
- LSU: Jefferson: 161 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; Scott/Williams: 24 rushes, 112 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 1 sack, 3 TOs
- Georgia Tech: Nesbitt: 73 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Dwyer/Nesbitt/Jones: 42 rushes, 258 yards, 3 TDs
I immediately penciled in taking Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech no matter where they ended up, and surprise surprise, Georgia Tech winds up in Atlanta. Seriously, have there ever been this many teams to wind up playing bowl games 50 or less miles from their campus? LSU has looked incredibly flaky this season, a far cry from the National Championship team from a year ago. Georgia Tech is absolutely on fire right now...love it.
Georgia Tech (-4)
Thursday, January 1
Outback Bowl: South Carolina vs. Iowa (11:00, ESPN)
Head to Head
| Matchup | Gamecocks Offense | Hawkeyes Defense |
 |  | |
| Points/Game | 21.7 (177) | 13.3 (11) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 98.3 (213) | 98.3 (24) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 218.5 (100) | 191.3 (96) |
| Total Yards/Game | 316.8 (180) | 289.5 (26) |
| Third Down Pct. | 38.5% (135) | 33.9% (44) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 68.8% (19) | 57.1% (133) |
| Sacks | 29 (186) | 17 (189) |
| Sack Yards | -191 (184) | -120 (183) |
| Rushing TDs | 7 (232) | 7 (8) |
| Passing TDs | 19 (92) | 8 (6) |
| Carries/Game | 403 (159) | 383 (43) |
| Yards/Carry | 2.9 (218) | 3.1 (29) |
| Completion Pct. | 55.5% (102) | 55.7% (78) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 6.5 (156) | 5.6 (18) |
| Pass Rating | 113.9 (181) | 99.1 (14) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 106.1 | 41 |
| Matchup | Gamecocks Defense | Hawkeyes Offense |
| | |
| Points/Game | 20.3 (54) | 30.3 (63) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 128.7 (78) | 189.3 (52) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 160.3 (18) | 184.6 (158) |
| Total Yards/Game | 288.9 (25) | 373.9 (95) |
| Third Down Pct. | 35.2% (61) | 38.8% (130) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 45.5% (114) | 50.0% (45) |
| Sacks | 38 (16) | 26 (162) |
| Sack Yards | -229 (28) | -147 (118) |
| Rushing TDs | 20 (150) | 27 (41) |
| Passing TDs | 8 (7) | 15 (146) |
| Carries/Game | 429 (107) | 468 (74) |
| Yards/Carry | 3.6 (64) | 4.9 (35) |
| Completion Pct. | 57.0% (44) | 57.8% (120) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 6.2 (55) | 7.4 (77) |
| Pass Rating | 110.0 (40) | 130.1 (93) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 39.1 | 64 |
Simulations:
- Final Score: Iowa 28, South Carolina 21
- Iowa: Stanzi: 113 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Greene/Hampton: 29 rushes, 182 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 3 sacks, 4 TOs
- USC: Garcia: 180 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; Davis/Garcia: 22 rushes: 90 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 3 sacks, 3 TOs
I was absolutely dreading writing about this game. You know, they play Clemson, and I'm nervous and what not, but still, I'm going "they need to do something to gain some momentum," and ultimately, they did nothing. So, we're in a New Year's bowl game, but the punishment is playing an 11:00 game against the Doak Walker winner in Shonn Greene. So, it's not enough that they have literally no momentum, plus, they are going up against a team that loves to run. This should be interesting. Well, I'll leave you with this (and of course I'm picking USC, and yes I'm nervous, and yes I don't have any confidence in it): History in the bowls is on the Gamecocks' side. They are 4-1 ATS since '92 in bowl games...I'm reaching, but I needed something. I can't wait to watch this completely hungover and end up most likely as frustrated as Spurrier will be (which, by the way, if you haven't noticed, has been a year-long look of disbelief from Spurrier).
South Carolina (+3.5)
Capital One Bowl: Georgia vs. Michigan State (1:00, ABC)
Head to Head
| Matchup | Bulldogs Offense | Spartans Defense |
 |  | |
| Points/Game | 32.1 (50) | 21.9 (78) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 153.9 (103) | 147.6 (136) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 280.0 (26) | 210.3 (139) |
| Total Yards/Game | 433.9 (32) | 357.9 (136) |
| Third Down Pct. | 42.1% (78) | 41.0% (160) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 50.0% (101) | 18.8% (221) |
| Sacks | 18 (62) | 24 (99) |
| Sack Yards | -146 (108) | -176 (87) |
| Rushing TDs | 21 (86) | 16 (95) |
| Passing TDs | 24 (51) | 15 (83) |
| Carries/Game | 393 (171) | 417 (84) |
| Yards/Carry | 4.7 (51) | 4.2 (155) |
| Completion Pct. | 61.2% (99) | 52.2% (30) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 9.1 (13) | 6.5 (86) |
| Pass Rating | 154.3 (25) | 112.4 (49) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 48 | 74.5 |
| Matchup | Bulldogs Defense | Spartans Offense |
| | |
| Points/Game | 25.6 (132) | 26.2 (111) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 129.9 (81) | 138.4 (136) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 188.4 (81) | 214.0 (113) |
| Total Yards/Game | 318.3 (56) | 352.4 (131) |
| Third Down Pct. | 36.5% (82) | 35.4% (176) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 42.1% (83) | 66.7% (243) |
| Sacks | 15 (196) | 18 (78) |
| Sack Yards | -111 (182) | -156 (127) |
| Rushing TDs | 23 (189) | 23 (66) |
| Passing TDs | 17 (116) | 11 (191) |
| Carries/Game | 405 (64) | 477 (67) |
| Yards/Carry | 3.8 (93) | 3.5 (179) |
| Completion Pct. | 55.6% (76) | 53.3% (191) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 6.7 (102) | 7.1 (99) |
| Pass Rating | 122.5 (109) | 118.3 (161) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 74.6 | 94 |
Simulations:
- Final Score: Georgia 31, Michigan State 22
- Michigan State: Hoyer: 207 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Ringer: 26 rushes, 95 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs
- Georgia: Stafford: 230 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Moreno: 20 rushes, 102 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 1 sack, 3 TOs
I have to say that it's nice to be previewing games in which I've seen both teams. Numbers are nice, but there's no way of getting a feel for Troy/Southern Miss because I didn't get to see either play this year. Anyway, Georgia has been awful ATS this season (3-6 ATS, 3-5 ATS as a favorite, 2-5 ATS playing a .500+ record team), but Michigan State hasn't been so hot either (6-6 ATS, 0-3 ATS as an underdog). To me, it comes down to what Brian Hoyer can accomplish against this defense. The 'Dawgs will be loading up on Ringer after getting thoroughly embarrassed by GA Tech's run offense in their last game, so Hoyer will need to step up his game and at least attempt to beat UGA through the air. State has a deceptfully good pass D, but I question how they are going to stop Moreno, as they are now using him out of the backfield on screen passes with more regularity. I'm taking UGA, but I really didn't have much faith in either side.
Georgia (-7)
Gator Bowl: Nebraska vs. Clemson (1:00, CBS)
Head to Head
| Matchup | Tigers Offense | Cornhuskers Defense |
 |  | |
| Points/Game | 25.5 (122) | 29.2 (174) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 120.5 (179) | 125.8 (66) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 218.8 (99) | 235.7 (191) |
| Total Yards/Game | 339.3 (151) | 361.5 (144) |
| Third Down Pct. | 31.1% (221) | 35.3% (63) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 38.9% (166) | 50.0% (72) |
| Sacks | 15 (35) | 30 (47) |
| Sack Yards | -127 (76) | -225 (28) |
| Rushing TDs | 22 (76) | 24 (196) |
| Passing TDs | 13 (167) | 17 (114) |
| Carries/Game | 405 (158) | 392 (49) |
| Yards/Carry | 3.6 (163) | 3.9 (105) |
| Completion Pct. | 63.6% (85) | 58.9% (140) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 7.2 (90) | 8.1 (222) |
| Pass Rating | 128.5 (104) | 137.5 (190) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 86 | 81.9 |
| Matchup | Tigers Defense | Cornhuskers Offense |
| | |
| Points/Game | 16.6 (16) | 36.2 (27) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 127.6 (75) | 173.5 (68) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 167.3 (31) | 284.8 (22) |
| Total Yards/Game | 294.8 (30) | 458.3 (16) |
| Third Down Pct. | 37.6% (103) | 48.4% (20) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 41.7% (80) | 38.5% (92) |
| Sacks | 28 (58) | 21 (107) |
| Sack Yards | -180 (86) | -128 (91) |
| Rushing TDs | 7 (7) | 27 (40) |
| Passing TDs | 12 (32) | 25 (36) |
| Carries/Game | 408 (68) | 451 (96) |
| Yards/Carry | 3.8 (87) | 4.6 (58) |
| Completion Pct. | 56.1% (155) | 69.5% (5) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 5.1 (3) | 8.6 (17) |
| Pass Rating | 100.1 (17) | 157.6 (21) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 38.5 | 32.5 |
Simulations:
- Final Score: Nebraska 27, Clemson 25
- Clemson: Harper: 234 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; Davis/Spiller: 23 rushes, 94 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs
- Nebraska: Ganz: 210 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Helu/Lucky: 21 rushes, 87 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 4 sacks, 4 TOs
If Nebraska is going to win this game, it is going to have to be through the air. I think Clemson is just too much up front, and despite the good numbers that they have in terms of yards/game defending the pass, they have given up a high completion percentage. Basically, they play off the ball, but are very good open field tacklers. I feel like Clemson will be able to run on Nebraska more than the sims are indicating. It's tough to stop Davis and Spiller for an entire game. What gets me is that I think this will be a shootout, which favors Nebraska.
Nebraska (+2.5)
Friday, January 2
Cotton Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech (2:00, FOX)
Head to Head
| Matchup | Rebels Offense | Red Raiders Defense |
 |  | |
| Points/Game | 30.8 (59) | 26.3 (137) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 183.4 (57) | 133.5 (86) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 215.3 (111) | 238.1 (194) |
| Total Yards/Game | 398.7 (62) | 371.6 (157) |
| Third Down Pct. | 42.1% (79) | 37.8% (110) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 61.5% (48) | 50.0% (220) |
| Sacks | 34 (222) | 30 (48) |
| Sack Yards | -269 (239) | -192 (62) |
| Rushing TDs | 19 (106) | 21 (167) |
| Passing TDs | 24 (52) | 16 (101) |
| Carries/Game | 475 (69) | 412 (78) |
| Yards/Carry | 4.6 (61) | 3.9 (108) |
| Completion Pct. | 55.3% (176) | 63.4% (216) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 8.3 (30) | 7.1 (152) |
| Pass Rating | 141.5 (50) | 127.4 (140) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 64.6 | 89.8 |
| Matchup | Rebels Defense | Red Raiders Offense |
| | |
| Points/Game | 17.8 (23) | 44.6 (4) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 85.0 (13) | 118.9 (182) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 209.8 (135) | 417.3 (1) |
| Total Yards/Game | 294.8 (31) | 536.2 (4) |
| Third Down Pct. | 30.2% (15) | 54.5% (4) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 52.6% (164) | 65.2% (102) |
| Sacks | 13 (210) | 11 (16) |
| Sack Yards | -76 (225) | -104 (53) |
| Rushing TDs | 9 (21) | 28 (37) |
| Passing TDs | 14 (71) | 43 (5) |
| Carries/Game | 396 (54) | 303 (235) |
| Yards/Carry | 2.6 (9) | 4.7 (52) |
| Completion Pct. | 58.2% (157) | 71.0% (4) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 6.6 (94) | 8.3 (31) |
| Pass Rating | 118.6 (89) | 161.5 (16) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 59.6 | 33.9 |
Simulations:
- Final Score: Texas Tech 38, Ole Miss 29
- Ole Miss: Snead: 207 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; Eason/McCluster/Bolden: 29 rushes, 130 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 3 sacks, 3 TOs
- Texas Tech: Harrell: 381 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT; Batch/Woods: 20 rushes, 105 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs
I have seen the numbers, I have seen where the money is going...why is this spread so low? What I value perhaps more than anything right now is my wariness of trap spreads. From all indications, Tech should be two-touchdown favorites, and yet, the spread is anywhere between four and six...amazing. I love Tech, but someone knows something. The spread fell two points instead of going up to where it perhaps should be. Look, I love Tech, but this is a really bizarre situation here.
Ole Miss (+6)
Liberty Bowl: East Carolina vs. Kentucky (5:00, ESPN)
Head to Head
| Matchup | Pirates Offense | Wildcats Defense |
 |  | |
| Points/Game | 23.8 (151) | 21.7 (75) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 128.3 (161) | 142.4 (121) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 207.7 (121) | 184.6 (71) |
| Total Yards/Game | 336.0 (156) | 327.0 (76) |
| Third Down Pct. | 38.2% (138) | 34.3% (50) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 60.0% (55) | 50.0% (140) |
| Sacks | 29 (187) | 28 (67) |
| Sack Yards | -205 (193) | -177 (86) |
| Rushing TDs | 16 (143) | 14 (72) |
| Passing TDs | 14 (162) | 17 (117) |
| Carries/Game | 487 (56) | 446 (139) |
| Yards/Carry | 3.4 (190) | 3.8 (94) |
| Completion Pct. | 60.2% (87) | 52.6% (35) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 7.1 (101) | 6.9 (122) |
| Pass Rating | 127.0 (113) | 120.2 (95) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 91.5 | 61.8 |
| Matchup | Pirates Defense | Wildcats Offense |
| | |
| Points/Game | 20.8 (60) | 22.4 (166) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 138.1 (106) | 129.3 (156) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 196.7 (109) | 169.2 (187) |
| Total Yards/Game | 334.8 (95) | 298.4 (208) |
| Third Down Pct. | 34.7% (54) | 30.5% (224) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 47.6% (127) | 50.0% (98) |
| Sacks | 24 (102) | 11 (15) |
| Sack Yards | -137 (136) | -75 (18) |
| Rushing TDs | 16 (98) | 18 (120) |
| Passing TDs | 17 (119) | 10 (202) |
| Carries/Game | 466 (182) | 407 (156) |
| Yards/Carry | 3.9 (110) | 3.8 (146) |
| Completion Pct. | 59.8% (201) | 54.2% (183) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 6.3 (63) | 5.3 (228) |
| Pass Rating | 115.9 (73) | 100.9 (214) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 74.3 | 105.5 |
Simulations:
- Final Score: Kentucky 22, East Carolina 20
- East Carolina: Kass: 109 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Whitley/Simmons: 20 rushes, 74 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs
- Kentucky: Hartline: 186 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Dixon/Smith: 26 rushes, 106 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 3 sacks, 4 TOs
East Carolina was on fire to start the season, then had a couple of tough losses, fell off the face of the Earth for a few weeks, but since have 4-1. Both teams are awful against the spread, so basically, I went with the best team.
East Carolina (-2.5)
Saturday, January 3
International Bowl: Buffalo vs. UConn (12:00, ESPN)
Head to Head
| Matchup | Bulls Offense | Huskies Defense |
 |  | |
| Points/Game | 31.1 (58) | 19.8 (47) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 141.1 (131) | 116.9 (52) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 239.5 (70) | 164.5 (27) |
| Total Yards/Game | 380.5 (88) | 281.4 (21) |
| Third Down Pct. | 46.4% (31) | 32.3% (31) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 73.9% (6) | 18.8% (41) |
| Sacks | 12 (15) | 30 (53) |
| Sack Yards | -80 (23) | -189 (64) |
| Rushing TDs | 26 (51) | 15 (88) |
| Passing TDs | 25 (43) | 9 (15) |
| Carries/Game | 467 (77) | 404 (63) |
| Yards/Carry | 3.9 (141) | 3.5 (57) |
| Completion Pct. | 64.6% (27) | 51.4% (19) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 7.3 (87) | 6.1 (51) |
| Pass Rating | 142.4 (47) | 101.1 (21) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 40.7 | 29.5 |
| Matchup | Bulls Defense | Huskies Offense |
| | |
| Points/Game | 27.5 (155) | 23.8 (152) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 158.8 (160) | 204.6 (34) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 249.5 (209) | 147.3 (211) |
| Total Yards/Game | 408.3 (198) | 351.8 (134) |
| Third Down Pct. | 45.7% (220) | 33.5% (203) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 44.4% (107) | 33.3% (244) |
| Sacks | 28 (65) | 13 (34) |
| Sack Yards | -185 (76) | -70 (15) |
| Rushing TDs | 28 (221) | 24 (60) |
| Passing TDs | 17 (129) | 4 (241) |
| Carries/Game | 447 (141) | 507 (40) |
| Yards/Carry | 4.6 (195) | 4.8 (47) |
| Completion Pct. | 65.8% (242) | 49.5% (218) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 7.1 (159) | 5.5 (221) |
| Pass Rating | 133.9 (173) | 89.1 (236) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 111.4 | 95 |
Simulations:
- Final Score: UConn 29, Buffalo 27
- Buffalo: Willy: 189 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Thermilus: 18 rushes, 68 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 1 sack, 3 TOs
- UConn: Lorenzen: 135 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; Brown: 26 rushes, 160 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 4 sacks, 3 TOs
I understand Donald Brown is going to run all over Buffalo. Still, I think I have to go with the hot hand here. UConn looked terrible against Pittsburgh, while Buffalo went on to beat previously unbeaten Ball State in the MAC Championship game.
Buffalo (+5)
Tuesday, January 6
GMAC Bowl: Ball State vs. Tulsa (8:00, ESPN)
Head to Head
| Matchup | Cardinals Offense | Golden Hurricane Defense |
 |  | |
| Points/Game | 36.6 (23) | 29.1 (170) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 192.7 (46) | 133.5 (87) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 266.7 (37) | 257.7 (220) |
| Total Yards/Game | 459.4 (15) | 391.2 (181) |
| Third Down Pct. | 50.7% (12) | 38.6% (122) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 54.5% (78) | 44.4% (90) |
| Sacks | 21 (93) | 36 (12) |
| Sack Yards | -153 (118) | -221 (34) |
| Rushing TDs | 31 (28) | 12 (46) |
| Passing TDs | 27 (30) | 32 (241) |
| Carries/Game | 492 (49) | 446 (140) |
| Yards/Carry | 5.1 (29) | 3.9 (111) |
| Completion Pct. | 67.0% (54) | 60.7% (176) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 9.2 (10) | 7.9 (213) |
| Pass Rating | 164.5 (10) | 148.6 (225) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 28.7 | 94 |
| Matchup | Cardinals Defense | Golden Hurricane Offense |
| | |
| Points/Game | 18.6 (33) | 47.4 (2) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 141.8 (119) | 254.8 (13) |
| Pass Yards/Game | 206.2 (127) | 310.2 (12) |
| Total Yards/Game | 347.9 (118) | 565.1 (2) |
| Third Down Pct. | 40.9% (158) | 57.7% (1) |
| Fourth Down Pct. | 42.3% (88) | 42.1% (138) |
| Sacks | 12 (220) | 20 (100) |
| Sack Yards | -82 (222) | -99 (44) |
| Rushing TDs | 13 (55) | 37 (11) |
| Passing TDs | 14 (70) | 44 (4) |
| Carries/Game | 433 (115) | 610 (12) |
| Yards/Carry | 4.3 (162) | 5.4 (15) |
| Completion Pct. | 57.2% (205) | 64.2% (36) |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 6.3 (61) | 10.2 (3) |
| Pass Rating | 113.2 (55) | 175.6 (3) |
| Avg. NCAA Football Ranking | 82.2 | 18 |
Simulations:
- Final Score: Ball State 44, Tulsa 39
- Ball State: Davis: 283 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT; Lewis: 30 rushes, 147 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 2 sacks, 4 TOs
- Tulsa: Johnson: 255 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs; Adams/Opesevitan/Williams: 30 rushes, 170 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs
I think this will basically come down to whatever team makes a stop. I mean I don't even know if that will happen, but if a team forces one or two punts, they will be in the driver's seat for this game. Both defense aren't so hot, but Ball State is looking significantly better in terms of average yards/play given up, especially against the run. We already had TCU/Boise State for the fans of the D. This one will be for everyone that likes to see games where the two teams combine for like a thousand yards.
Ball State (-1.5)
And I'm spent...phew...well, you may have noticed I left the BCS games out. I figured I can take a break from this for a little bit, and really focus on the BCS games in my next column. Again, we're on a losing streak right now, but hopefully things will turn around...and if not, this was a nice way to chip away at all the free time I have. I'm at least hoping this will give people a look at teams that they probably haven't seen before, and I know my predictions are not all working out, but at least you get a feel for each team in terms of what they like to do, what they're good at, what they're not so hot at, etc. Again, happy holidays, and the BCS preview will be up shortly. Peace.
~Mell-o
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