College Bowl Preview Part I

"I guess a twinkle in her eye is just a twinkle in her eye."

Alright, now this I've been looking forward to. Bowl season is upon us. There are a ton of games (32) to preview. I am going to break this down so I don't go crazy. Maybe two parts, three at the most. But here's Part I...enjoy (all info is gathered from FoxSports.com, Accuscore, and ESPN.com):

Saturday, December 20

Eagle Bank Bowl: Navy vs. Wake Forest (11:00, ESPN)

Head to Head

Matchup Midshipmen Offense Demon Deacons Defense Points/Game 27.8 (93) 18.3 (30) Rush Yards/Game 298.3 (4) 116.1 (50) Pass Yards/Game 63.3 (244) 184.3 (71) Total Yards/Game 361.7 (112) 300.3 (36) Third Down Pct. 47.3% (27) 36.4% (83) Fourth Down Pct. 61.9% (46) 43.8% (124) Sacks 17 (56) 24 (96) Sack Yards -90 (28) -141 (146) Rushing TDs 31 (28) 9 (22) Passing TDs 6 (233) 15 (83) Carries/Game 667 (4) 410 (77) Yards/Carry 5.4 (15) 3.4 (50) Completion Pct. 51.2% (243) 52.5% (32) Yards/Pass Attempt 8.8 (15) 5.9 (32) Pass Rating 139.1 (58) 106.2 (34) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 54.8 43.9
Matchup Midshipmen Offense Demon Deacons Offense Points/Game 27.8 (93) 20.3 (190) Rush Yards/Game 298.3 (4) 111.6 (192) Pass Yards/Game 63.3 (244) 188.7 (149) Total Yards/Game 361.7 (112) 300.3 (203) Third Down Pct. 47.3% (27) 35.7% (170) Fourth Down Pct. 61.9% (46) 47.1% (121) Sacks 8 (6) 29 (191) Sack Yards -43 (5) -187 (173) Rushing TDs 31 (28) 11 (195) Passing TDs 6 (233) 13 (168) Carries/Game 667 (4) 467 (74) Yards/Carry 5.4 (15) 2.9 (216) Completion Pct. 51.2% (243) 62.1% (51) Yards/Pass Attempt 8.8 (15) 6.3 (173) Pass Rating 139.1 (58) 123.1 (136) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 51.5 109.2 Simulations: Final Score: Navy 25, Wake Forest 23 Navy: Dobbs/Kettani/White: 42 rushes, 150 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 3 sacks, 4 TOs WF: Skinner: 201 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Pendergrass/Adams: 24 rushes, 75 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 TOs If Riley Skinner throws no INTs, Wake is winning 58% of the time; if Skinner throws two or more INTs (four in the first meeting), Navu is winning 71% of the time. My Thoughts: I love the heart of this Navy team. It was made evident to me when they played Notre Dame that this team has some major fight in them. This is one of those rare occasions where the two teams playing in a bowl game have already played earlier this season, with Navy winning at Winston-Salem 24-17. I think this is the one thing that is going against Navy...the fact that they not only have played the team they are going against, but have defeated them. Still, it is going to take a huge effort from Wake's run D to slow the Midshipmen's ground game down. Navy had 292 rushing yards in their first game. While Wake had a run D in the top 50, I just don't see them being able to contain Navy the entire game. Navy (+3) New Mexico Bowl: Colorado State vs. Fresno State (2:30, ESPN) Head to Head Matchup Rams Offense Bulldogs Defense Points/Game 23.9 (149) 30.3 (185) Rush Yards/Game 129.8 (155) 197.3 (214) Pass Yards/Game 247.5 (51) 196.2 (108) Total Yards/Game 377.3 (90) 393.5 (186) Third Down Pct. 44.2% (52) 36.0% (73) Fourth Down Pct. 33.3% (208) 47.6% (222) Sacks 10 (9) 17 (189) Sack Yards -73 (15) -122 (178) Rushing TDs 15 (154) 21 (169) Passing TDs 17 (117) 18 (142) Carries/Game 417 (135) 451 (154) Yards/Carry 3.7 (159) 5.3 (228) Completion Pct. 60.2% (66) 58.5% (132) Yards/Pass Attempt 7.5 (72) 6.6 (96) Pass Rating 129.6 (98) 128.9 (149) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 69.5 110.2
Matchup Rams Defense Bulldogs Offense Points/Game 29.8 (182) 29.2 (77) Rush Yards/Game 185.3 (199) 176.8 (64) Pass Yards/Game 222.8 (175) 206.5 (124) Total Yards/Game 408.1 (199) 383.3 (83) Third Down Pct. 47.2% (229) 40.3% (112) Fourth Down Pct. 75.0% (237) 66.7% (119) Sacks 25 (89) 17 (65) Sack Yards -190 (68) -136 (106) Rushing TDs 18 (128) 20 (95) Passing TDs 22 (192) 17 (118) Carries/Game 431 (117) 440 (108) Yards/Carry 5.2 (224) 4.8 (45) Completion Pct. 64.3% (196) 59.6% (96) Yards/Pass Attempt 7.2 (163) 7.1 (100) Pass Rating 139.2 (202) 129.0 (103) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 118.2 64.3
Simulations:
Final Score: Colorado State 33, Fresno State 31 Fresno State: Brandstater: 207 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Matthews/Harding/Miller: 33 rushes, 161 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 2 TOs Colorado State: Farris: 277 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Johnson: 20 rushes, 94 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 3 TOs My Thoughts: Of course AccuScore isn't working on ESPN, and of course, the guy previewing the game didn't throw in any custom simulations, so I guess you're just going to have to trust me on this one. Colorado State was awful last year (3-9), but had a nice bounce back this year (6-6). I like how well they protect the QB, only allowing ten sacks all year. Plus, Colorado State has won the last two head-to-head meetings. Colorado State (+3) St. Petersburg Bowl: Memphis vs. South Florida (4:30, ESPN2) Head to Head Matchup Tigers Offense Bulls Defense Points/Game 28.3 (87) 20.5 (56) Rush Yards/Game 205.6 (33) 97.7 (23) Pass Yards/Game 226.6 (90) 194.1 (100) Total Yards/Game 432.2 (34) 291.8 (28) Third Down Pct. 47.5% (25) 37.0% (94) Fourth Down Pct. 58.8% (61) 33.3% (121) Sacks 18 (67) 22 (132) Sack Yards -140 (96) -149 (131) Rushing TDs 24 (56) 11 (40) Passing TDs 19 (93) 15 (98) Carries/Game 510 (35) 406 (71) Yards/Carry 4.8 (46) 2.9 (22) Completion Pct. 57.0% (85) 53.4% (48) Yards/Pass Attempt 6.8 (126) 6.8 (119) Pass Rating 123.4 (135) 119.0 (90) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 48.6 53.3 Matchup Tigers Defense Bulls Offense Points/Game 26.0 (136) 26.5 (108) Rush Yards/Game 146.3 (132) 159.8 (94) Pass Yards/Game 195.7 (105) 237.6 (74) Total Yards/Game 341.9 (108) 397.4 (66) Third Down Pct. 36.2% (80) 47.2% (28) Fourth Down Pct. 91.7% (245) 46.2% (225) Sacks 14 (202) 26 (173) Sack Yards -81 (221) -218 (211) Rushing TDs 18 (129) 22 (82) Passing TDs 16 (104) 15 (156) Carries/Game 377 (36) 469 (71) Yards/Carry 4.7 (198) 4.1 (116) Completion Pct. 53.3% (38) 62.3% (50) Yards/Pass Attempt 7.4 (182) 7.6 (69) Pass Rating 127.3 (139) 131.0 (87) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 93.4 73.2 Simulations: Final Score: South Florida 34, Memphis 23 Memphis: Hall: 163 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Steele: 78 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 3 sacks, 4 TOs South Florida: Grothe: 247 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; Ford/Plancher/Grothe: 28 rushes, 134 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 2 sacks, 2 TOs My Thoughts: In a de facto home game for South Florida, they have opened up as the heavy favorites against the Tigers. A non-conference opponent is just what USF needed. They went 5-0 in non-conference games this year. Despite the fact that they finished up the year losing four of their last five games, they still have a pretty strong ground game and have not been affected by injuries. The thing that concerns me is the play of Matt Grothe for USF. He is prone to making mistakes. If the Bulls take the game out of his hands, and rely on their ground game to take out a weak Memphis front, USF should have no problem covering. South Florida (-13) Las Vegas Bowl: BYU vs. Arizona (8:00, ESPN) Head to Head Matchup Cougars Offense Wildcats Defense Points/Game 35.3 (30) 21.3 (66) Rush Yards/Game 135.9 (143) 132.3 (84) Pass Yards/Game 308.9 (13) 169.8 (38) Total Yards/Game 444.8 (27) 302.1 (39) Third Down Pct. 55.9% (3) 32.5% (35) Fourth Down Pct. 70.0% (15) 50.0% (18) Sacks 20 (87) 21 (138) Sack Yards -163 (143) -138 (153) Rushing TDs 19 (106) 16 (97) Passing TDs 34 (12) 11 (28) Carries/Game 392 (175) 379 (41) Yards/Carry 4.2 (100) 4.2 (156) Completion Pct. 68.9% (14) 54.8% (65) Yards/Pass Attempt 8.3 (32) 5.6 (19) Pass Rating 157.9 (21) 104.0 (28) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 41.9 45.7 Matchup Cougars Defense Wildcats Offense Points/Game 21.2 (65) 37.1 (23) Rush Yards/Game 144.2 (122) 164.0 (90) Pass Yards/Game 206.5 (129) 237.3 (75) Total Yards/Game 350.7 (122) 401.3 (58) Third Down Pct. 44.6% (207) 44.7% (49) Fourth Down Pct. 44.4% (102) 26.7% (97) Sacks 18 (165) 27 (177) Sack Yards -107 (188) -173 (152) Rushing TDs 16 (100) 31 (27) Passing TDs 15 (89) 22 (67) Carries/Game 446 (144) 476 (63) Yards/Carry 3.9 (108) 4.1 (111) Completion Pct. 60.4% (171) 64.2% (35) Yards/Pass Attempt 6.6 (95) 7.6 (57) Pass Rating 124.5 (119) 142.6 (45) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 87.5 51.2 Simulations: Final Score: Arizona 33, BYU 27 BYU: Hall: 286 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; Unga: 19 rushes, 60 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 3 sacks, 3 TOs Arizona: Tuitama: 204 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT Grigsby/Antolin/Smith: 31 rushes, 109 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 2 sacks, 4 TOs My Thoughts: BYU has one of the nation's finest QBs in Max Hall, but he will face a stiff challenge taking on 'Zona's pass D, ranking 38th against the pass and 8th in yards/attempt. BYU has played a fairly easy schedule, but when they have gone up against above-average defenses, they have struggled. Hall threw no TDs and seven picks against Utah and TCU. Arizona held Southern Cal to 17 points, so that may give you an idea of what this D is capable of. Arizona (-3) Sunday, December 21 New Orleans Bowl: Southern Miss vs. Troy (8:15, ESPN) Head to Head Matchup Golden Eagles Offense Trojans Defense Points/Game 30.7 (61) 20.6 (57) Rush Yards/Game 196.3 (43) 139.8 (110) Pass Yards/Game 238.2 (72) 180.4 (59) Total Yards/Game 434.5 (32) 320.3 (62) Third Down Pct. 44.3% (51) 36.0% (75) Fourth Down Pct. 70.8% (13) 26.9% (241) Sacks 16 (45) 32 (35) Sack Yards -128 (81) -240 (21) Rushing TDs 28 (37) 15 (89) Passing TDs 21 (74) 16 (115) Carries/Game 494 (43) 479 (202) Yards/Carry 4.8 (47) 3.5 (58) Completion Pct. 57.2% (63) 54.5% (59) Yards/Pass Attempt 6.8 (127) 5.6 (21) Pass Rating 126.1 (117) 104.0 (29) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 41.2 56 Matchup Golden Eagles Defense Trojans Offense Points/Game 23.8 (109) 33.3 (43) Rush Yards/Game 145.0 (125) 175.4 (65) Pass Yards/Game 223.9 (177) 246.0 (55) Total Yards/Game 368.9 (152) 421.4 (39) Third Down Pct. 39.0% (130) 36.1% (166) Fourth Down Pct. 45.5% (114) 76.2% (235) Sacks 25 (90) 9 (13) Sack Yards -162 (111) -53 (9) Rushing TDs 12 (47) 22 (79) Passing TDs 24 (214) 25 (43) Carries/Game 393 (54) 414 (142) Yards/Carry 4.4 (175) 5.1 (33) Completion Pct. 58.1% (188) 61.2% (72) Yards/Pass Attempt 6.7 (103) 6.2 (182) Pass Rating 125.3 (123) 125.6 (122) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 86.9 59 Simulations: Final Score: Troy 32, Southern Miss 25 Troy: Brown: 255 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Harris: 25 rushes, 102 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 4 sacks, 3 TOs Southern Miss: Davis: 206 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Fletcher/Davis/Floyd: 148 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs My Thoughts: Here's a game that will come down to how well each team runs the ball. From the looks of it, both run it very effectively, and both seemingly cannot stop the run on defense. However, an X-Factor could be Levi Brown's effectiveness throwing the ball. Troy also turned some heads earlier this year at Columbus against Ohio State, and then again in Baton Rouge when, let's face it, they blew a chance to knock off LSU. I think Troy has not only the running game, but a passing game good enough to put some major points up on the board. Troy (-4.5) Tuesday, December 23 Poinsettia Bowl: Boise State vs. TCU (8:00, ESPN) Head to Head Matchup Broncos Offense Horned Frogs Defense Points/Game 39.4 (13) 10.9 (3) Rush Yards/Game 162.7 (91) 48.7 (1) Pass Yards/Game 294.1 (19) 166.4 (31) Total Yards/Game 456.8 (18) 215.1 (3) Third Down Pct. 45.0% (44) 29.0% (12) Fourth Down Pct. 66.7% (24) 35.7% (191) Sacks 34 (227) 43 (2) Sack Yards -248 (231) -312 (2) Rushing TDs 27 (42) 8 (16) Passing TDs 30 (22) 8 (9) Carries/Game 429 (119) 335 (8) Yards/Carry 4.6 (64) 1.7 (1) Completion Pct. 68.5% (27) 49.0% (5) Yards/Pass Attempt 8.8 (16) 5.7 (26) Pass Rating 161.7 (15) 96.6 (9) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 44.2 14.5 Matchup Broncos Defense Horned Frogs Offense Points/Game 12.3 (4) 35.0 (35) Rush Yards/Game 104.9 (34) 215.7 (26) Pass Yards/Game 189.6 (88) 201.4 (130) Total Yards/Game 294.5 (29) 417.1 (42) Third Down Pct. 30.9% (21) 51.5% (8) Fourth Down Pct. 27.3% (12) 60.0% (208) Sacks 11 (228) 18 (81) Sack Yards -92 (209) -141 (115) Rushing TDs 7 (12) 37 (10) Passing TDs 8 (10) 14 (160) Carries/Game 425 (103) 591 (15) Yards/Carry 3.0 (24) 4.4 (79) Completion Pct. 51.3% (147) 58.2% (112) Yards/Pass Attempt 5.5 (13) 7.2 (95) Pass Rating 94.3 (6) 129.0 (102) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 42.7 55.4 Simulations: Final Score: TCU 26, Boise State 21 TCU: Dalton: 139 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Turner/Dalton/Brown: 32 rushes, 90 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 3 sacks, 3 TOs Boise State: Moore: 143 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; Johnson/Avery: 20 rushes, 56 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 2 TOs My Thoughts: As the simulations are indicating, this is going to be a really ugly, pound-it-out game. Personally, when I heard this matchup, I thought it was the best matchup not only of non-BCS bowl games, but perhaps overall the best matchup. Interesting stat: TCU has won three of its last four bowl games, while Boise State has lost three of its last four, with the one win being the memorable Fiesta Bowl game against Oklahoma. What I have a hard time getting over is TCU's strong suits. First of all, they have the second-best defense in the nation and lead the nation in rushing yards/carry on defense. They are 7th in the nation in 3rd Down conversions on offense. In the end, I just think Boise State will have no answer to the onslaught of defense the Horned Frogs bring. TCU (-2.5) Wednesday, December 25 Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii vs. Notre Dame (8:00, ESPN) Head to Head Matchup Warriors Offense Fighting Irish Defense Points/Game 24.9 (132) 22.3 (81) Rush Yards/Game 99.3 (208) 142.7 (119) Pass Yards/Game 245.5 (57) 184.8 (73) Total Yards/Game 344.8 (140) 327.5 (79) Third Down Pct. 35.7% (171) 33.5% (42) Fourth Down Pct. 46.2% (126) 38.5% (45) Sacks 34 (226) 19 (165) Sack Yards -226 (219) -143 (140) Rushing TDs 18 (121) 18 (130) Passing TDs 21 (73) 12 (35) Carries/Game 393 (169) 411 (80) Yards/Carry 3.3 (197) 4.2 (159) Completion Pct. 58.7% (40) 52.9% (39) Yards/Pass Attempt 7.2 (96) 5.9 (34) Pass Rating 125.0 (128) 105.8 (32) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 95.6 57 Matchup Warriors Defense Fighting Irish Offense Points/Game 27.3 (153) 22.7 (161) Rush Yards/Game 148.0 (138) 113.4 (188) Pass Yards/Game 203.8 (121) 231.4 (86) Total Yards/Game 351.8 (126) 344.8 (141) Third Down Pct. 33.7% (43) 34.9% (187) Fourth Down Pct. 57.7% (203) 34.5% (189) Sacks 49 (1) 20 (100) Sack Yards -293 (8) -177 (158) Rushing TDs 17 (113) 10 (209) Passing TDs 22 (193) 20 (82) Carries/Game 481 (205) 402 (159) Yards/Carry 4.0 (124) 3.4 (191) Completion Pct. 56.7% (152) 58.9% (99) Yards/Pass Attempt 7.0 (142) 6.6 (144) Pass Rating 126.3 (132) 122.3 (138) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 84.3 101.5 Simulations: Final Score: Hawaii 27, Notre Dame 26 Notre Dame: Clausen: 254 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; Allen/Hughes/Aldridge: 26 carries, 93 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 4 sacks, 4 TOs Hawaii: Alexander: 254 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Libre/Pilares/Alexander: 27 carries, 114 yards, 1 TDs My Thoughts: Notre Dame is just an atrocious team. Just plain bad. Plus, they haven't won a bowl game since '93. Hey, they're calling for a good game, and if the Irish win and prove me wrong, then so be it...but if you saw any of the ND/'Cuse game, can you honestly put any kind of monetary sum on ND's side in this game? Hawaii had a rough transition trying to get a suitable replacement for Colt Brennan. They seem to have found one in Greg Alexander, who is not afraid to bring the ball down and rush every once in a while, which is something that ND does not have an answer for. Hawaii is 3-0 in the Hawaii Bowl. Hawaii (-1) Friday, December 26 Motor City Bowl: Florida Atlantic vs. Central Michigan (7:30, ESPN) Head to Head Matchup Owls Offense Chippewas Defense Points/Game 25.2 (130) 30.8 (190) Rush Yards/Game 141.0 (131) 138.6 (105) Pass Yards/Game 250.5 (46) 285.7 (241) Total Yards/Game 391.5 (71) 424.3 (214) Third Down Pct. 42.1% (82) 43.8% (197) Fourth Down Pct. 16.7% (244) 50.0% (17) Sacks 11 (14) 31 (41) Sack Yards -67 (11) -161 (108) Rushing TDs 15 (163) 23 (190) Passing TDs 23 (62) 23 (200) Carries/Game 380 (188) 392 (52) Yards/Carry 4.5 (74) 4.2 (155) Completion Pct. 53.0% (102) 63.6% (218) Yards/Pass Attempt 7.1 (104) 7.8 (206) Pass Rating 123.9 (133) 142.8 (213) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 70.7 106.7 Matchup Owls Defense Chippewas Offense Points/Game 29.3 (178) 30.3 (64) Rush Yards/Game 183.5 (197) 134.3 (147) Pass Yards/Game 218.7 (169) 292.8 (20) Total Yards/Game 402.2 (196) 427.1 (36) Third Down Pct. 38.3% (118) 49.2% (18) Fourth Down Pct. 61.9% (220) 26.7% (95) Sacks 12 (224) 29 (197) Sack Yards -103 (196) -201 (193) Rushing TDs 23 (197) 19 (104) Passing TDs 21 (187) 26 (32) Carries/Game 498 (220) 453 (91) Yards/Carry 4.4 (181) 3.6 (167) Completion Pct. 63.6% (181) 65.7% (22) Yards/Pass Attempt 7.3 (178) 8.0 (40) Pass Rating 137.4 (189) 149.1 (30) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 128.7 57.1 Simulations: Final Score: Central Michigan 39, Florida Atlantic 29 Florida Atlantic: Smith: 278 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; Pierre: 12 carries, 64 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 2 TOs Central Michigan: LeFevour: 283 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT; Sneed/LeFevour: 23 carries, 96 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 4 TOs My Thoughts: Whether you're aware of this or not, I am mega-huge on Dan LeFevour's game. This guy is a freak of nature. He passes (average QB rating of 156 in sims) and he is as good running the ball. He is the total package, and is the reason for the Chippewas' recent success. This is one of those games where you could pretty much shove any number you wanted in my face...I gotta go with my man LeFevour here. Central Michigan (-7) Saturday, December 27 Meineke Car Care Bowl: West Virginia vs. North Carolina (1:00, ESPN) Head to Head Matchup Mountaineers Offense Tar Heels Defense Points/Game 24.0 (147) 20.3 (52) Rush Yards/Game 217.2 (24) 140.8 (113) Pass Yards/Game 135.3 (221) 217.2 (167) Total Yards/Game 352.5 (129) 357.9 (136) Third Down Pct. 39.2% (122) 41.2% (162) Fourth Down Pct. 33.3% (203) 27.8% (118) Sacks 24 (142) 18 (170) Sack Yards -154 (124) -100 (209) Rushing TDs 14 (166) 14 (66) Passing TDs 19 (87) 12 (34) Carries/Game 475 (64) 442 (134) Yards/Carry 5.5 (13) 3.8 (90) Completion Pct. 64.5% (170) 60.1% (163) Yards/Pass Attempt 5.9 (194) 6.0 (37) Pass Rating 132.3 (82) 111.0 (45) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 85.8 77.1 Matchup Mountaineers Defense Tar Heels Offense Points/Game 15.9 (14) 27.5 (95) Rush Yards/Game 134.8 (93) 125.1 (168) Pass Yards/Game 190.7 (93) 192.3 (147) Total Yards/Game 325.5 (73) 317.3 (178) Third Down Pct. 41.8% (170) 42.6% (70) Fourth Down Pct. 33.3% (22) 46.2% (232) Sacks 14 (199) 27 (174) Sack Yards -90 (210) -199 (192) Rushing TDs 14 (70) 17 (128) Passing TDs 8 (5) 18 (101) Carries/Game 446 (142) 422 (128) Yards/Carry 3.6 (60) 3.6 (164) Completion Pct. 55.7% (167) 56.5% (149) Yards/Pass Attempt 5.7 (24) 7.8 (47) Pass Rating 102.1 (24) 135.1 (74) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 62.1 93 Simulations: Final Score: West Virginia 27, North Carolina 23 West Virginia: White: 102 yards 1 TD, 1 INT; Devine/White: 35 rushes, 164 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs North Carolina: Yates: 74 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Draughn/Houston: 21 rushes, 100 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 1 sack, 2 TOs My Thoughts: I actually had the "privledge" of seeing this bowl in Charlotte last year (privledge in quotes because a.) it was raining, b.) I was working, thus not getting the "full" experience if you know what I mean, and c.) UConn lost to a team from North Carolina (Wake Forest) who had a 80/20 fan disparity). What this will come down to is how well each team does in the red zone. West Virginia has the #1 defense in red zone scoring percentage, while UNC has struggled mightily in stopping opponents from scoring inside the 20. What cannot be overlooked is that there is a huge UNC following in Charlotte, and Chapel Hill is only about two hours down Route 85 from the QC. I think Pat White brings an element to the game that UNC is not used to or prepared for. Also, WVU's defense is deceptively good. West Virginia (Pk) Champs Sports Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Florida State (4:30, ESPN) Head to Head Matchup Badgers Offense Seminoles Defense Points/Game 28.7 (83) 20.8 (60) Rush Yards/Game 212.0 (28) 126.8 (74) Pass Yards/Game 192.8 (146) 164.9 (28) Total Yards/Game 404.8 (52) 291.8 (27) Third Down Pct. 39.3% (120) 26.1% (2) Fourth Down Pct. 63.6% (35) 43.5% (33) Sacks 21 (95) 36 (10) Sack Yards -132 (86) -271 (6) Rushing TDs 31 (25) 12 (41) Passing TDs 10 (200) 14 (64) Carries/Game 529 (30) 412 (82) Yards/Carry 4.8 (42) 3.7 (77) Completion Pct. 53.9% (177) 50.9% (12) Yards/Pass Attempt 7.3 (82) 6.1 (43) Pass Rating 118.7 (158) 110.6 (43) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 61.8 27.4 Matchup Badgers Defense Seminoles Offense Points/Game 25.3 (128) 32.7 (48) Rush Yards/Game 133.3 (87) 182.8 (59) Pass Yards/Game 189.1 (86) 185.8 (156) Total Yards/Game 322.3 (68) 368.7 (103) Third Down Pct. 38.0% (113) 44.8% (47) Fourth Down Pct. 33.3% (24) 33.3% (150) Sacks 25 (84) 24 (137) Sack Yards -162 (110) -174 (154) Rushing TDs 21 (167) 25 (54) Passing TDs 13 (48) 16 (128) Carries/Game 412 (83) 445 (97) Yards/Carry 3.9 (105) 4.9 (35) Completion Pct. 51.5% (81) 53.7% (190) Yards/Pass Attempt 6.2 (53) 6.4 (165) Pass Rating 108.6 (37) 113.2 (182) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 57.9 77.5 Simulations: Final Score: Florida State 31, Wisconsin 26 Wisconsin: Sherer: 163 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Hill/Clay: 28 rushes, 145 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 2 sacks, 4 TOs Florida State: Ponder: 192 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; Smith/Ponder/Thomas: 35 rushes, 182 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 4 sacks, 4 TOs My Thoughts: These two teams are ridiculously similar, and it's one of those games where I have no confidence in my pick...so there's a fair warning. Both teams are going to have big games on the ground. The main difference I can see is third down efficiency. The 'Noles are #2 in the country in defending against third downs. This is an increasingly prevalant number when you're talking about a team whose main means of moving the ball is on the ground. Plus, they are 14th in red zone defense, meaning they give up field goals instead of TDs. Florida State (-5) Emerald Bowl: Miami vs. California (8:00, ESPN) Head to Head Matchup Hurricanes Offense Golden Bears Defense Points/Game 27.9 (92) 20.2 (50) Rush Yards/Game 130.1 (153) 122.5 (62) Pass Yards/Game 197.0 (139) 192.9 (98) Total Yards/Game 327.1 (167) 315.4 (49) Third Down Pct. 33.7% (199) 30.3% (16) Fourth Down Pct. 64.7% (29) 25.0% (38) Sacks 31 (202) 33 (26) Sack Yards -239 (224) -243 (16) Rushing TDs 17 (129) 16 (98) Passing TDs 20 (78) 10 (18) Carries/Game 394 (166) 463 (176) Yards/Carry 4.0 (119) 3.2 (38) Completion Pct. 57.3% (116) 50.6% (10) Yards/Pass Attempt 6.4 (166) 5.9 (33) Pass Rating 118.5 (159) 97.1 (10) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 97.2 33.5 Matchup Hurricanes Defense Golden Bears Offense Points/Game 24.2 (115) 33.3 (42) Rush Yards/Game 146.4 (133) 183.7 (57) Pass Yards/Game 169.3 (37) 195.5 (144) Total Yards/Game 315.8 (51) 379.2 (88) Third Down Pct. 37.4% (102) 30.4% (225) Fourth Down Pct. 35.0% (32) 33.3% (239) Sacks 27 (65) 25 (150) Sack Yards -178 (85) -183 (168) Rushing TDs 19 (136) 20 (92) Passing TDs 14 (66) 24 (47) Carries/Game 463 (174) 405 (155) Yards/Carry 3.8 (91) 5.4 (14) Completion Pct. 51.4% (26) 52.9% (196) Yards/Pass Attempt 6.5 (83) 6.2 (177) Pass Rating 117.7 (84) 121.1 (147) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 58.2 88.2 Simulations: Final Score: California 31, Miami 21 Miami: Marve: 137 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; Cooper/James: 20 rushes, 60 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 4 sacks, 3 TOs California: Riley: 156 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Best/Vereen: 33 rushes, 180 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 3 sacks, 3 TOs My Thoughts: At first glimpse, I know what you're thinking. First, Miami is not what they once were...they've struggled, the sims look awful for them, but they played well on the road, and this game is essentially a road game. However, I have a hard time getting over two things: Miami has a really, really...really young team, and their youth and inexperience could be a potential downfall. Also, this is coach Randy Shannon's first bowl game. Miami had not allowed any opponent to rush for over 100 yards in their first ten games. In the last two, they allowed 691 to Georgia Tech and NC State. Cal boasts one of the best backs that no one really knows about in Jahvid Best. He went off in his last two games. Granted, they were against Stanford and Washington, but still, 512 yards in two games is quite a feat. Look for Miami to be flat, and Cal to run all over them (sorry for teasing you in the beginning). Also, this game is being played at AT&T Park, where the Giants play...very cool. California (-7) Sunday, December 28 Independence Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech (8:15, ESPN) Head to Head Matchup Huskies Offense Bulldogs Defense Points/Game 25.3 (126) 24.8 (121) Rush Yards/Game 172.8 (70) 100.3 (27) Pass Yards/Game 162.0 (195) 279.9 (239) Total Yards/Game 334.8 (157) 380.3 (167) Third Down Pct. 43.3% (61) 37.3% (99) Fourth Down Pct. 58.8% (60) 52.6% (37) Sacks 22 (113) 26 (81) Sack Yards -128 (80) -161 (107) Rushing TDs 22 (76) 12 (44) Passing TDs 12 (179) 24 (206) Carries/Game 470 (69) 403 (66) Yards/Carry 4.4 (76) 3.0 (23) Completion Pct. 57.6% (204) 60.9% (183) Yards/Pass Attempt 7.2 (93) 7.8 (205) Pass Rating 125.1 (126) 138.0 (193) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 76.6 81.7 Matchup Huskies Defense Bulldogs Offense Points/Game 18.1 (28) 25.3 (125) Rush Yards/Game 140.3 (112) 195.0 (46) Pass Yards/Game 162.5 (23) 157.0 (202) Total Yards/Game 302.8 (40) 352.0 (131) Third Down Pct. 40.4% (153) 34.3% (195) Fourth Down Pct. 38.1% (52) 33.3% (82) Sacks 16 (186) 22 (120) Sack Yards -82 (219) -140 (114) Rushing TDs 12 (45) 22 (75) Passing TDs 13 (49) 9 (213) Carries/Game 406 (69) 492 (45) Yards/Carry 4.1 (139) 4.8 (43) Completion Pct. 63.0% (96) 46.2% (234) Yards/Pass Attempt 6.3 (60) 6.0 (191) Pass Rating 125.6 (127) 99.4 (217) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 63.5 92.4 Simulations: Final Score: Northern Illinois 29, Louisiana Tech 24 Northern Illinois: Harnish: 175 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Harnish/Spann/Brown: 27 rushes, 122 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs Louisiana Tech: Bennett: 133 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; Porter/Jackson: 25 rushes, 124 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 1 sack, 3 TOs My Thoughts: The Huskies are winning the sims, but I have to think that LA Tech, who has not been to a bowl since '01, will be pretty juiced for this game...as will their fans. Let's not forget that this is another one of those pseudo home games, so Tech will have a home field advantage playing in Shreveport. NIU lost three of its last four heading into this game, plus Tech is tough against the run. Louisiana Tech (+1.5) Monday, December 29 PapaJohns.com Bowl: North Carolina State vs. Rutgers (3:00, ESPN) Head to Head Matchup Wolfpack Offense Scarlet Knights Defense Points/Game 23.5 (153) 18.5 (32) Rush Yards/Game 125.5 (166) 139.0 (108) Pass Yards/Game 200.8 (131) 184.9 (74) Total Yards/Game 326.3 (170) 323.9 (72) Third Down Pct. 36.7% (159) 30.8% (18) Fourth Down Pct. 37.5% (179) 53.8% (32) Sacks 23 (127) 28 (64) Sack Yards -144 (108) -185 (69) Rushing TDs 13 (180) 14 (69) Passing TDs 18 (102) 9 (12) Carries/Game 415 (140) 442 (135) Yards/Carry 3.6 (165) 3.8 (92) Completion Pct. 51.3% (164) 61.1% (186) Yards/Pass Attempt 6.8 (122) 7.8 (204) Pass Rating 119.2 (153) 132.5 (166) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 100.9 60.6 Matchup Wolfpack Defense Scarlet Knights Offense Points/Game 26.1 (137) 29.0 (80) Rush Yards/Game 144.3 (123) 128.8 (158) Pass Yards/Game 242.8 (199) 266.3 (38) Total Yards/Game 387.1 (176) 395.2 (68) Third Down Pct. 40.3% (150) 41.2% (95) Fourth Down Pct. 52.6% (162) 30.8% (70) Sacks 28 (57) 19 (89) Sack Yards -189 (71) -138 (111) Rushing TDs 16 (92) 20 (90) Passing TDs 18 (137) 24 (44) Carries/Game 409 (75) 390 (178) Yards/Carry 4.2 (152) 4.0 (120) Completion Pct. 62.6% (221) 60.5% (85) Yards/Pass Attempt 7.1 (148) 8.5 (21) Pass Rating 128.7 (147) 145.3 (39) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 93 58.5 Simulations: Final Score: Rutgers 33, North Carolina State 22 NC State: Wilson: 186 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; Brown/Eugene: 19 rushes, 70 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs Rutgers: Teel: 280 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; Brooks/Young: 26 rushes, 130 yards, 2 TDs; Defense: 4 sacks, 2 TOs My Thoughts: This line has gone bananas since opening at 4.5. I have found some sites with spreads as high as nine in favor of Rutgers. NC State is the only team with a sub-.500 record in the bowls. The 'Pack won their last four games, which in most games would give them the momentum edge...that is unless you're facing Rutgers, who have not only been beating teams, but running them over. The Knights have won six in a row. State has had a nice run, but ultimately, I don't think they will be able to slow Rutgers down in this game. Rutgers (-7.5) Alamo Bowl: Missouri vs. Northwestern (8:00, ESPN) Head to Head Matchup Tigers Offense Wildcats Defense Points/Game 43.2 (7) 19.3 (43) Rush Yards/Game 157.1 (101) 127.7 (77) Pass Yards/Game 340.4 (7) 215.3 (160) Total Yards/Game 497.5 (6) 343.0 (110) Third Down Pct. 54.4% (5) 33.9% (46) Fourth Down Pct. 38.5% (168) 42.3% (36) Sacks 27 (167) 33 (23) Sack Yards -207 (197) -234 (25) Rushing TDs 28 (35) 15 (80) Passing TDs 39 (7) 11 (27) Carries/Game 387 (182) 424 (98) Yards/Carry 5.3 (20) 3.6 (63) Completion Pct. 72.4% (3) 58.4% (129) Yards/Pass Attempt 8.5 (22) 6.0 (38) Pass Rating 162.7 (13) 112.9 (52) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 42.7 45.8 Matchup Tigers Defense Wildcats Offense Points/Game 27.5 (155) 24.5 (139) Rush Yards/Game 128.9 (80) 147.6 (112) Pass Yards/Game 285.3 (240) 209.4 (119) Total Yards/Game 414.2 (205) 357.0 (121) Third Down Pct. 45.5% (215) 45.7% (37) Fourth Down Pct. 53.8% (173) 33.3% (159) Sacks 14 (200) 15 (49) Sack Yards -89 (212) -107 (58) Rushing TDs 19 (137) 15 (152) Passing TDs 26 (224) 17 (114) Carries/Game 470 (192) 451 (95) Yards/Carry 3.6 (61) 3.9 (133) Completion Pct. 64.3% (245) 60.7% (80) Yards/Pass Attempt 6.9 (120) 6.1 (186) Pass Rating 133.0 (170) 116.9 (167) Avg. NCAA Football Ranking 119.5 78.2 Simulations: Final Score: Missouri 41, Northwestern 25 Northwestern: Bacher: 206 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; Simmons: 16 rushes, 46 yards, 1 TD; Defense: 2 sacks, 3 TOs Missouri: Daniel: 310 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs; Washington: 16 rushes, 114 yards; Defense: 2 sacks, 4 TOs My Thoughts: I am totally in awe of the work that Pat Fitzgerald has done in revitalizing Northwestern's program this year. He has to be in consideration for coach of the year. Mizzou looked awful against Oklahoma in the Big XII Championship game...but again, if you played OU after the Texas game, that tended to happen. Still, the Tigers are reeling, and Chase Daniel hasn't looked close to his All-American self down the stretch. A thing to watch out for could be the return of Tyrell Sutton to NW. He had nearly 1500 yards rushing his freshman year, but injuries have limited his production the last three years. The sims did not account for his presence, and if he is on the field, it will be tough for Mizzou to contain this offense, especially with C.J. Bacher making plays on the run. Northwestern (+13) Alright, there is Part One. As mentioned before, I will be putting up the rest of the previews shortly, but at least these will get you all the way through Christmas. Plus, I have to pace myself here. I am so psyched how well the graphics came out for the stats. Special thanks to FoxSports.com for that. Their "head-to-head" feature is available for a ton of different sports, and while it doesn't factor in strength of schedule, it helps to get some kind of feel for what different teams tend to rely on, especially those who I haven't seen this year. NFL picks are right around the corner. The Celtics won their 16th in a row tonight, and the B's have the Maple Leafs tomorrow night. The hot stove is lukewarm at this juncture, but I will keep you informed if anything breaks. Good luck in your bowl pools. Peace. ~Mell-o