Saturday, January 07, 2012
So I Talk To My NFL Diary (Wild Card Weekend...You Know, The One The Pats Aren't Playing 'Cause We're Nasty And What Not)
"Get the duck boats ready, the Cup is coming home."
10:48: It's the start of the NFL playoffs, and yet all I really care about is the defending Stanley Cup champs. Huge game today not only because it's a rematch of the finals from last year, but Vancouver, as much as we do not like them (just watched Game 7 looped to the radio call...man those cheap shots at the end of the game are fueling the fire), are one of the best teams in the game, so a nice barometer, and an even better excuse to stumble down memory lane today. I love afternoon hockey! Okay, so to keep appearances, the picks...
Houston (-4) vs. Cincy: So the line and the over/under (38), are exactly what I would predict the final score to be (Houston 21, Cincy 17). Basically, it would be wise to not bet on this game, and you're gonna have to hope there is something good on TV elsewhere because I'm getting bored just thinking about this game. Houston has two premiere backs (Ben Tate is a backup, and rushed for 100 yards twice coming off the bench while Arian Foster also ran for 100...that is a joke!), and while the QB play of T.J. Yates may be brought into question, you can't deny the importance of a player like Andre Johnson being back in the fold. The Texans also feature Jonathan Joseph (all-pro Gamecock!), who shut down A.J. Green, Cincy's lone equalizer, the first time around. Tough team to beat at home, and also Foster had a week to rest. He might be tearing shit up from the jump.
New Orleans (-10) vs. Detroit: "New Orleans, at home, at night" has been the mantra all year long, and it is no different today. If I had to say anything betting wise, I would say bet the under. Sounds insane considering who is playing, but I see an epic beatdown by the Saints here based on the Lions being too tight, and the Saints, coming off of "The Run" and the apparent game that subsequently went with it in Seattle last year. If you think like 42-10 or even a more conservative 35-21, it's still under.
10:37: I'm again trying to use my iPad to type this, and again, it erased everything I just wrote (apparently I underestimated the "undo" button in this scenario). So while I restrain myself from throwing this increasingly evil machine on the ground, let's get to Sunday's picks...
By the way, went through every week and tabulated my win % at about 55 for the year. While that may not sound like much, consider that if you go 60% for a season, you are a god. So, five ticks away from being a fake gambling god?...I'll take it!
THE G-MEN (-3) vs. The ATL: The lone bright spot going into this game for the Falcons would be that their corners are good enough to slow down at least two of the Giants' receivers...but therein lies the problem. With Nicks, Cruz, and Manningham, someone is going to be open. If that isn't bad enough, the Giants also have a big-time running game that has only been getting better lately. The Falcons have a great passing attack and one of the best runners in the league in Michael Turner, but they are simply outmatched in basically every facet of the game.
Denver (+9) vs. Pittsburgh: While Isaac Redman has certainly proved his worth when called upon this year, the loss of Rashard Mendenhall cannot be overlooked. It is absolutely huge for them. In addition, no Ryan Clark, and Big Ben on one leg...this sounds like a team that can be taken advantage of by an agressive, athletic team. Enter Denver, with you know who at QB, a fantastic running game, and a super-aggressive defense that should be all over Ben (also, no Maurkice Pouncey today either, another huge blow). Tebow has been horrendous in the cold weather, but quite frankly, he needs to do just enough today to win. I'm thinking around a 13-10 game, so if Tebow can limit mistakes and they stick to keeping the ball on the ground, they may have enough to actually take this.
Whoever wins is going to get smashed in Foxboro next week anyway, so good luck with all that. Have a good rest of you weekend everyone. Peace.