Friday, October 05, 2007

NFL Week 5/College Week 6 Predictions

"And the old black rum's got a hold on me
Will I live for another day?"

Greetings. Yet another weekend is upon us...but there's been so much going on that I almost couldn't even get my picks in. New job, Sox, Cocks, Bruins...I love it!

So Josh Beckett had right around the second greatest pitching performance I've ever seen (Pedro in the '99 ALDS, Game 5 against the Tribe cannot and may never be touched). He was masterful with his velocity and his off-speed pitches, and the Halos looked completely baffled, only able to get four meager singles the entire game, while getting a man past second just once. Beckett retired 20 in a row at one point. Just total domination. The Sox also were on the wrong end of four horrendous calls (Lugo's caught stealing, the "foul ball" off Kendrick's foot, two horrible strike three calls on Youk and Manny), but still, Youk's solo shot in the first, and Papi's mammoth two-run blast in the third proved to be plenty for the Sox to take the critical Game 1. I'm not sure what the stats are, but I guaran-damn-tee that the team who wins the first game, percentage-wise, has the best chance to win the series, especially a five-gamer. Onto Game 2. Again, the key is to get the runs up early, then maintain, because the Angels' lineup is not equipped to play catch-up. Rather, this is a team that has to be up going into the ninth (they've won around 120 in a row win winning going into the ninth), so building a lead early is the biggest key for the Sox. Also, it will be interesting to see how Dice-K handles the Angels' small-ball ways. Very exciting times...

GO BRUINS!!! (this just in: if you're looking for a place with good times, and a great atmosphere, head on down to Beantown Tavern, where every Bruins game will be televised...that's Beantown Tavern, downtown Matthews, see you there)

The Cocks are in the top 10, and this guy was loving it last night. Look at the five keys...hey, no one's paying me...yet. Really, really good stuff. I will be back on Sunday after the new rankings come out. Right now, I'm rooting against basically every single top 10 with one obvious exception (the boys from Chestnut Hill). Oh we got something going on in the Cola. Go Cocks! Top ten baby!

Now, onto a bunch of teams I don't care about:

College (No Big 10 Edition):
Utah vs. Louisville:
I seem to remember Utah destroying UCLA a few weeks past...then I really haven't heard from them since. The fact is this team doesn't play well on the road, losing to Oregon St. and UNLV on the road by 17 and 27 respectfully. Louisville got the water in the face after their demise against Syracuse, and now, I feel like they are out to beat the living hell out of every team they face. I'll take the Cardinals (W, -14.5).

Georgia Tech vs. Maryland: Both these teams had huge victories last week. GA Tech beat Clemson at home, while Maryland traveled to the University of New Jersey (Rutgers) and handed the Scarlet Knights their first loss of the year. Now, the Jackets are on the road against the Terps. I see Maryland passing all over the questionable Tech secondary (anyone remember how Matt Ryan did?) despite the fact that they have not done much of it this year. Maryland in a home upset (W, +3.5).

Kansas vs. Kansas St.: And the #1 scoring defense in the country is...Kansas! That's right, the Jayhawks are giving up 5.8 points a game. There's just one problem...they have proven they are a tough defense against opponents who barely belong on a D-I schedule. Central Michigan, SE Louisiana, Toledo, and Florida oh my. Anyway, K-State is coming off a huge win at Austin, and now, find themselves second in the Big 12 North. Kansas St. has equally impressive defensive numbers as Kansas, and they've played at Auburn and at Texas. I like the Wildcats (W, -3).

Vanderbilt vs. Auburn: While this very well could be a let-down game for Auburn after a huge win at The Swamp, I still really think the Tigers have a Louisville kind of thing going on, and that the loss at home to Mississippi St. was a bit of an eye-opener for this team. Vandy has impressive numbers, but have not played a road game yet, and starting off in Auburn is not going to help matters much. I'll take Auburn (W, -7.5).

UAB vs. Mississippi St.: Last year, the Bulldogs barely got by the Blazers 16-10 at Birmingham. Now, UAB travels to Starkville heavily 'dogged. So, while I think Mississippi St. will have just enough offense to get the win (W), I see the members of last year's UAB team really stepping it up and making this closer than what the line depicts (+18.5).

Oklahoma vs. Texas: The Red River Shootout. After a humiliating defeat against Kansas St., the Longhorns will be looking to take out their frustrations on Oklahoma, who also are coming off a loss to derail their national title hopes at the hands of Colorado. I really think the real Colt McCoy is showing up this year, and for you Texas fans, it's been pretty ugly so far. Oklahoma did get beat last week, but it was on the road, and only by 3. Texas lost by 20 at home, and had problems dispatching Central Florida three weeks ago. I'll take the Sooners (W, -12)

South Florida vs. Florida Atlantic: You may be a little surprised by this one, so let me explain before everyone freaks out. South Florida is a good team...they're just not that good. You know what I mean though right? I mean is South Florida the sixth best team in the country? I don't believe so. They have a huge matchup with Rutgers next week, and will definitely leave some points on the field here. Their offense isn't that great, meaning the Owls will be able to keep it close. South Florida to win (W) and FAU to cover (+17).

Florida vs. LSU: Sorry, I just can't see Florida losing two in a row. They don't have the best team in the country (that honor goes to their opponent), but, as much as it pains me to say this, Tim Tebow is very good. Plus, the Cocks were able to keep it close despite losing their best defensive player and amidst a quarterback change. I'll take the Gators (W, +7.5) in the upset.

Iowa St. vs. Texas Tech: Iowa St. just seems to hang around in games. I know they haven't faced a pass offense like this one, but still, I see that spread, and immediately, I'm thinking that the Cyclones will be able to handle themselves. Plus, Iowa St. is the closest thing to a Big 10 team without actually having to pick one. I like the Red Raiders straight up (W), with the Cyclones to cover (+25).

Last Week: SU: 6-4, ATS: 6-4
Season: 23-13, ATS: 17-16-3

New England vs. Cleveland:
Can they seriously cover two three-score spreads in a row?...hey, why not? Pats (W, -16.5).

Arizona vs. St. Louis: This game won't be on local TV, which has me intrigued. Also, did someone say Gus Frerotte? It's Gus Frerotte time! As if their season wasn't going bad enough, Bulger, the former Pro-Bowler, gets benched for Gus Fre-freggin-rotte. Steven Jackson is again out. Tell me Whisenhunt gets this done. Cardinals (W, -3).

Carolina vs. New Orleans: The only reason this spread is so close is because for some reason, the Panthers refuse to show up when they're in Charlotte, and take their game up a notch when they are off on the road. Also, both their wins came in a dome...interesting. Can the Saints really lose their first four games of the season? All sides point to yes! (also, the home team in this series is 1-12 ATS...yowsah!). The Mell-o curse continues. Panthers on the road (W, +3).

New York vs. New York: So I guess the Giants are at home in this one, which sounds about right considering it is "Giants Stadium" and all. Ok, the key thing to note is that for some reason, the Giants are really good in October (10-2-1 ATS in their last 13) and the Jets' injury list is about a mile long. Also, the G-Men figured out how to play defense last week, which does not bode well for the Jets. It's hard to believe the last meeting was in '03, but I do like the Giants (W, -3.5).

Seattle vs. Pittsburgh: Seahawks beat the Niners on the road...check that, they destroyed them. Meanwhile, the Cardinals beat up on the Steelers in an obvious vengeance game. However, the Steelers are great at home, and Seattle, when playing actual teams (that would be Arizona) seem like they're out of place. So, I'll take the Steelers to bounce back (W, -6).

Detroit vs. Washington: Hmmm...people were dumping money on the Lions, now all of a sudden, the disparity is evening out. Detroit was a big stinker the last time they played the NFC East, and they are coming off a big win against Chicago, a team they haven't had any success against recently. So, the Lions basically bought themselves a one-way ticket to let down city. 'Skins coming off a bye (W, -3.5).

Miami vs. Houston: The Texans are my sleeper, but once again, they are without the services of Ahman Green and Andre Johnson. It caught up with them last week, and with Zach Thomas' return on the horizon, along with Jason Taylor getting fired up after trade talks, I like the Dolphins to surprise here. Dolphins (W, +5).

Atlanta vs. Tennessee: Here's something: After winning at home, the Falcons are 0-10 ATS in their next game. The Titans play well at home, and after a week off, they will bring Atlanta back to Earth after their win last week. Tennessee (W, -8).

Jacksonville vs. Kansas City: Last year, the Chiefs played the Jags at home and were favored by two and a half. This year, same line, but different favorite. The Chiefs knocked off the Jags last year 35-30, so if you're looking for something fairly solid, take the over. With that being said, the Jags are coming off a bye, and I'm going to keep my distance when picking them when they are favored. I'll go KC (W, +2.5).

Tampa Bay vs. Indianapolis: No way they do it again. No Caddy, no win. Indy (W, -9).

San Diego vs. Denver: So the Travis Henry thing is really fascinating. First, a story came out how he went all Derrick Thomas on everyone (God rest his soul) and fathered a bunch of kids with a bunch of different women. Now, he might get suspended for the entire year? Well this is going well. Now they're talking about getting Ricky Williams? Serenity now!!! All the money for this game is moving towards San Diego. I'm missing Javon Walker's injury driving this? Is it the fact that San Diego couldn't possibly go 1-4? What is it? What?! I'm so befuddled by all of this. Ehhhh...Chargers (W, PK).

Baltimore vs. San Francisco: Another game where all the money is flowing to the road team. Both teams are horrendous ATS (BAL 0-4, SF 1-3). Both teams got the crap beat out of them by divisional opponents. The Niners play well as a 'dog (even though they lost big time last week 'dogged by 2) and the Ravens, again, are terrible on the road. Plus, now if Gus Frerotte wasn't enough, guess who's starting for the Niners?...Trent Dilfer!!! Now this one I really like. You know he still holds a grudge against the Ravens for picking Elvis Grbac over him. Now Dilfer's starting again, and Grbac's in the "where are they now?" files. Dilfer magic. Go Niners (W, +3.5).

Chicago vs. Green Bay: The Packers are off to a 4-0 start, which does not surprise me at all. I've said all along that this team was going to do big things, now they're just making me look good. Chicago has looked dreadful so far, getting off to a 1-3 start. The teams who played in last year's NFC Championship game are a combined 1-6...the wild, wild NFC strikes again. The money is all on the Pack, and I find it excruciating to root against Brett Favre. I'll take the Pack (W, -3) at Lambeau.

Dallas vs. Buffalo: If it weren't for the two AFC powerhouses (Pats and Indy), all the talk would be about Dallas. They have been steamrolling opponents. 4-0 straight up, and 4-0 can't do much better than that. The Bills finally got into the win column last week against the Jets, and now get the Cowboys on MNF. Maybe it's me, but I really think Trent Edwards is really going to make a significant impact on this team. Plus, after what Stanford did on Saturday (by the way, I'm writing this really early on Sunday because I was so done from Friday night that I made it a very, very early night, who can pass up a chance to drink beer out of styrofoam cups on Sunday morning...I need to prepare for this Pats/Sox double-header), I really think anything is possible. Also, considering gambling isn't legal and all, why not take a chance? I'll go against the money and take the Bills (W, +10.5) at the Ralph.

Last Week: SU: 9-5, ATS: 10-4
Season: SU: 42-20, ATS: 32-24-6

Again, a huge day on Sunday for Boston sports. The Pats are playing a trap game against Cleveland, while the Sox look to knock off the Angels in Game 3. Great stuff. Take care, and as always...




1 comment:

Anonymous said...

OOPS, LSU wins. Kenny was in Batton Rouge but couldn't get in the stadium. I have my tickets for Nov 10. Uncle Tom