Friday, October 19, 2007

Pats/Dolphins Preview

"Where the days are longer
The nights are stronger than moonshine."

So here you go. The spreadsheet tables came up horribly. Sorry about that. In any event, I hope this gets put up on Saturday. Hopefully, this will help you for those two to three minutes that ESPN is not running coverage, pseudo-presidential assassination/major catastrophe, about Joe Torre not going back to the Yankees. Sure, it's a big story that Torre felt disrespected, but is there any chance you can talk about a team that is still playing games? I guess we get our 15 minutes, and they get their day and a half...typical. In any event, Joe Torre has now taken the lead for my favorite manager ever, and until Francona puts Ellsbury in to replace Coco (i.e., freggin tomorrow), Torre will assume the pole position. He stuck it to the Yankees almost as bad as we did in '04.

Pats Looking To Avoid A Letdown Facing The Winless Dolphins

“And maybe there's no peace in this world, for us or for anyone else, I don't know. But I do know that, as long as we live, we must remain true to ourselves.” ~Spartacus

Here’s a look at how the Patriots match up against the Dolphins in this week’s game at Miami.

Trends:

New England:

Since 2005:

• 11-5 after playing a road game
• 11-5 after scoring 25 or more points
• 5-4 on grass
• 11-3 vs. AFC East opponents
• 5-4 when the over/under is over 47.5 (currently 51.5)

Miami:

Since 2005:

• 9-9 at home
• 2-1 when underdogged by 10 or more points (current line: NE -16.5)
• 5-12 after playing a road game
• 6-15 after a loss
• 3-2 as a home underdog

Last Meeting: 12/10/2006: Miami 21, New England 0 (Dolphin Stadium)

Interesting Fact: Despite being tied with Roger Staubach for the most wins ever for a quarterback in his first 100 starts (76), Tom Brady is just 2-4 in six career starts at Miami.

Stats:

TOTAL OFFENSE

NE/MIA

POINTS/GAME: 38.1 (1ST)/21.3 (13TH)
YARDS/GAME: 431.2 (1ST)/325.0 (21ST)
TURNOVERS: 5 (2ND)/12 (23RD)
PENALTIES: 26 (9TH)/43 (29TH)
PENALTY YARDS: 225 (13TH)/348 (30TH)
3RD DOWN: 48.5% (14TH)/40.0% (23RD)
4TH DOWN: 60.0% (3RD)/100.0% (1ST)
SCORING EFFICIENCY: 56.5% (2ND)/40.3% (6TH)

TOTAL DEFENSE

NE/MIA

OPP. POINTS/GAME: 15.3 (6TH)/30.3 (29TH)
OPP. TOTAL YARDS/GAME: 257.0 (2ND)/352.2 (23RD)
OPP. 3RD DOWN: 30.6% (1ST)/53.8% (31ST)
OPP. 4TH DOWN: 50.0% (14TH)/66.7% (29TH)
OPP. SCORING EFFICIENCY: 22.7% (2ND)/54.1% (32ND)

Opponents’ Grades And Analysis:

PASS OFFENSE

CLEO LEMON QB C+
MARTY BOOKER WR B
TED GINN, JR. WR B-
DEREK HAGAN WR C
DAVID MARTIN TE B-

Miami traded away its best receiver, Chris Chambers, to the Chargers for a second round pick in next year’s draft. Does that mean they are throwing the towel in on this season? Not necessarily. Lemon has proved to be a capable quarterback coming in for Trent Green. Lemon accounted for four touchdowns in last week’s loss to Cleveland (two rushing, two passing). While Lemon loses a nice weapon in Chambers, it didn’t appear as though he was relied on too heavily in scoring situations, having zero touchdown catches. Marty Booker has been a consistently solid guy catching balls. Ted Ginn has become a bigger part of the offense with every passing week, and quite frankly has to be considering the spot he was taken in the draft. Look for a bunch of balls to go his way with Booker being covered by Asante Samuel. David Martin is quietly becoming one of the better young tight ends in the league. While not mentioned above, Ronnie Brown is now the team’s leading receiver, and will get a lot of looks coming out of the backfield.

RUSH OFFENSE

RONNIE BROWN RB A-
REAGAN MAUIA FB C
VERNON CAREY LT B
CHRIS LIWIENSKI LG B
SAMSON SATELE C B-
REX HADNOT RG B-
L.J. SHELTON RT B-

On either side of the ball, this is by far and away the best part of this Dolphins team. Ronnie Brown has literally and figuratively carried this offense. His 526 yards on the ground places him third in the league. After battling injuries and having two average seasons (average for a guy picked 2nd overall in the draft), Brown has emerged as one of the top backs in the league. He also has a 5.2 average per carry, and has yet to fumble the football. The line in front of him is a little above average. Vernon Carey has made a fairly good transition from guard to tackle over the last few years. The Dolphins think Satele is a future Pro-Bowler at center, and they should hope so, as he was part of the compensation in the Wes Welker trade to the Patriots.

RUSH DEFENSE

MATT ROTH RDE B-
KEITH TRAYLOR RDT B
RODRIQUE WRIGHT LDT C-
JASON TAYLOR LDE A+
JOEY PORTER ROLB A-
ZACH THOMAS MLB A
CHANNING CROWDER LOLB B+

While this group certainly has a lot of big names and big talent, they are not getting any younger, and the rust is starting to show on them. Taylor is probably the best defensive end in football, and has been an absolute house of horrors against the Pats. You don’t have to look to far to see his, and the Dolphin dominance. Last year, in their 21-0 win at Miami, Taylor and Co. Sacked Tom Brady four times, held Corey Dillon to 79 yards rushing, and forced three fumbles. I expect the Dolphins to bullrush Brady with both Taylor and Joey Porter from opposite ends. Sammy Morris definitely won’t play, and Laurence Maroney likely won’t, so this unit will be facing third-stringer Kevin Faulk on Sunday, making it that much easier for them to disrupt the offense. Not having Vonnie Holliday in the lineup will certainly weaken the line, as Holliday and Taylor make up one of the best tackle/end combos in the league.

PASS DEFENSE

WILL ALLEN RCB B
RENALDO HILL FS B
CAMERON WORRELL SS D+
MICHAEL LEHAN RCB C

In all honesty, if the front seven does not get pressure on Brady, this unit will get absolutely torched. The Cowboys had a fairly good secondary, and look what happened to them. What Miami needs to do to is to stay at home on play fakes, and really read what Brady and the rest of the offense are doing to try and move the ball. They need to be looking to make the big play and try to get the offense good field position when they are starting their drives. If Brady has time, this game could get ugly real quick.

Advantages:

When New England Has The Ball:

NE OFFENSE/MIA DEFENSE/ADV.
RUN YARDS/GAME: 141.7 (7TH)/168.5 (31ST)/NE
YARDS/CARRY: 4.2 (14TH)/4.5 (25TH)/NE
RUSHING FIRST DOWNS: 58 (1ST)/55 (32ND)/NE
RUSHING FUMBLES: 2 (13TH)/1 (28TH)/NE
PASS YARDS/GAME: 289.5 (1ST)/183.7 (6TH)/NE
COMPLETION %: 72.5% (1ST)/58.7% (7TH)/NE
PASSING FIRST DOWNS: 87 (1ST)/60 (13TH)/NE
QB RATING: 128.9 (1ST)/96.7 (29TH)/NE
INTERCEPTIONS: 2 (4TH)/3 (30TH)/NE
SACKS: 6 (4TH)/8 (26TH)/NE

Advantage: New England

When Miami Has The Ball:

MIA OFFENSE/NE DEFENSE/ADV.
RUN YARDS/GAME: 104.5 (18TH)/78.3 (5TH)/NE
YARDS/CARRY: 4.8 (7TH)/4.0 (17TH)/MIA
RUSHING FIRST DOWNS: 43 (4TH)/27 (9TH)/MIA
RUSHING FUMBLES: 3 (19TH)/0 (30TH)/MIA
PASS YARDS/GAME: 220.5 (16TH)/178.7 (4TH)/NE
COMPLETION %: 58.8% (25TH)/59.3% (8TH)/NE
PASSING FIRST DOWNS: 70 (11TH)/63 (16TH)/MIA
QB RATING: 69.9 (26TH)/74.0 (9TH)/NE
INTERCEPTIONS: 10 (30TH)/9 (5TH)/NE
SACKS: 10 (15TH)/16 (6TH)/NE

Advantage: New England

Matchup Of The Game: Ronnie Brown vs. Patriots’ Front Seven

Last week, while Dallas did not run very often, when they did, they were extremely effective. It looked like the Pats would be missing two or three tackles on every single running play, but had a lead for basically the entire game, which forced Dallas to go through the air. This week, Richard Seymour is scheduled to come back and play. His effectiveness is unknown, but what can be said is that these guys are a whole lot better when he is in the lineup. Miami doesn’t have the best line, but they are solid, and they will test the Patriot resolve. Unlike Dallas, Miami clearly likes to keep things simple and go to Brown as much as they can both on the ground and passing to him out of the backfield. Roosevelt Colvin and Adalius Thomas, the two outside linebackers, are going to have to watch out for this all game long. While Lemon is susceptible to the occasional sack, he can be elusive, and when he can escape pressure, it leaves the secondary and the linebackers in coverage exposed. If the Patriots are planning on a blowout, they need to keep Brown in check. Last year, then-Dolphin Sammy Morris ran for 123 yards and a score. I would not be surprised if Brown was able to duplicate those numbers.

Key Injuries:

New England:

• Randall Gay: Questionable (thigh)
• Laurence Maroney: Questionable (groin)
• Sammy Morris: Out (chest)
• Benjamin Watson: Questionable (ankle)
• Adalius Thomas: Questionable (ankle)
• Donte’ Stallworth: Questionable (knee)

Miami:

• Trent Green: Out (concussion)
• Vonnie Holliday: Out (ankle)
• Travares Tillman: Out (knee)
• David Martin: Probable (ankle)
• Zach Thomas: Probable (toe)

New England Keys To Victory:

1. Turnover Margin: Last year, the Pats did themselves in by fumbling four times, losing three of them. To eliminate any chance the Dolphins may have in this game, the Patriots cannot give Miami any cheap points by turning the ball over in their own territory, and set the Dolphins up with a short field.

2. Stop The Run: While it will be really hard to totally “stop” the run, the Pats need to at least contain Ronnie Brown. If they allow him to do his usual damage of 100 yards and over five yards a carry, the Dolphins will be able to control the pace of the game, which does not bode well for the Pats, especially considering this team is very hungry for their first win, and have shown that they can put up a lot of points given the right opportunities.

3. Move The Ball On The Miami Secondary: The Pats have the #1 passing offense in the league, and considering both Maroney and Morris could be out for this one, New England will have to rely on Tom Brady more than ever. While Miami is bad against the run, and they have the sixth best pass defense in yards, they are 29th in yards per attempt, 29th in opposing QB rating, and 30th in interceptions, meaning that the front seven does most of the damage for the secondary. If the Pats’ line can slow the impending pass rush, Brady should be able to put up big numbers in Miami.

Miami Keys To Victory:

1. Constant Pressure On Brady: This was how they won the game last year. The defense got to Patriot quarterbacks five times in that game. They seemed to be in Brady’s face all game long, and had just a few seconds to drop back and find a receiver. Brady was 12 of 25 for just 78 yards. If Jason Taylor does what he did last year, and if Zach Thomas can play the way he always has against New England, Miami could force some turnovers, and have a real shot at winning this game.

2. Ronnie Brown All Day Long: Once the Dolphins traded away Chris Chambers, Brown has become the Dolphins’ only big-play guy. He does it on the ground, and he does it catching the ball as well. The Patriot defense looked dreadful in the meaningful parts of last week’s game against Dallas’ running attack, so if Miami can control that aspect, Cleo Lemon could open it up and throw to Ted Ginn or Marty Booker in single coverage.

3. History: It seems that no matter how well the Patriots are playing, they have an incredibly tough time playing in Miami. Maybe it’s the humidity, maybe it’s the defense, but the Pats have never seemed right playing the Dolphins in Florida, while the same can be said about Miami playing up in Foxboro. Sure, the Patriots have looked unstoppable, but this could be a letdown game after playing Dallas, and hosting the Redskins next week. If they overlook the Dolphins, their perfect season may come to a screeching halt.

Game Time: 1:00 (CBS), Dolphin Stadium, Miami, FL

Go Cocks. Go Sox. Go Pats!!! Peace.

~Mell-o

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