Thursday, October 11, 2007

NFL Week 6/College Week 7 Predictions

"But not me baby
I got you to save me."

Ok, before I get into this, I just want to say how hilarious it is that people make picks, then say it's for "entertainment purposes only." Ok, well, here's my picks...lose money on them if you want to.

USC vs. UNC:
Well, it is a trap game, and there's also a lot of things going on between Spurrier and UNC. The last time Spurrier was there, it was when he was helping Duke celebrate the ACC Championship, beating the Tar Heels 41-0 back in 1989. So, there's some revenge factor going on there, and it's obvious that Vegas has gone along with it, as I was way off as far as what the spread on this game would be. There's no way for me not to be biased when looking at this game, so I'll at least try and throw some objective stuff in here. The Cocks are great at stopping the pass, as they proved last week against a Heisman candidate (who is now a then-Heisman candidate), and they have one of the best all-around defenses in the country (you heard me), so while UNC played a great game last week, USC had two more days to prepare for them, and the Duke/UNC thing will play a factor. I'm picking the Cocks (W, -7).

actually that was incredibly nonobjective and biased...whoops...

Rutgers vs. Syracuse: So I guess the formula is to first lose a critical game that kills any shot of getting to a BCS game, then goi up to Syracuse, and kick the crap out of them...I like it. Thanks for the blueprint West "by God" Virginia. Rutgers (W, -17) takes out its frustrations on the Orange(men).

Virginia Tech vs. Duke:
Hey, more power to Duke if they can pull this one off. I have to say, if the Hokies don't cover here, this whole national title trip for BC may not be so far-fetched...interesting. In any event, I'll take VA Tech (W, -14).

Oklahoma St. vs. Nebraska: There has to be a catch here, because this spread is about seven points off I'd say. In any event, this is a somewhat intriguing matchup, with two teams who do one thing exceptionally well, and also, have defenses that cannot stop what the other team is good at. So, with that being said, I'm going against Okie St. purely because Lincoln is a tough place to play, and the Cowboys are 0-3 on the road. Plus...why would I ever pick any team named the Cowboys this week? I'll take the Huskers (W, -4).

By the way, if you haven't seen the Okie St. coach flip out, here you I can't wait to get berated by someone on a professional basis.

Illinois vs. Iowa: Ok why am I picking the Big 10...why? I did pretty well last week, and now I'm falling back into the old trap. Anyway, I can't resist it anymore. Illinois definitely has a shot at making a big bowl game, and now that they dispatched Wisconsin, they find themselves in a trap game against the Hawkeyes. Iowa has won the last four meetings, including the last two in Des Moines ATS. Here's the thing, umm...Illinois was really bad those years, and this year they're really good. I also have a thing about picking a team that is 215th in points. I'll take the Illini (W, -4).

TCU vs. Stanford: Captain Comeback is back on the front pages. So much so that they ran a yearbook from the '95 Colts on the Deuce the other day. So, Stanford obviously will be in let-down mode...but what can you expect after beating the #2 team in the country on the road? So, hey, TCU's winless on the road, and they're favored...why not huh? Stanford (W, +6).

Oregon St. vs. California: So my thinking is that because of what happened last week, the oddsmakers are maybe suggesting that it could happen to a #2 Pac-10 team again. To Oregon St.'s credit, they have the #2 rush defense in the country. However, given the fact that Cali now determines their own destiny in terms of playing for a national title, every game is that much more important. Here's the thing though: For whatever reason, O-State plays Cali well at Berkeley. So, I'm going to split the difference. I'll take California to win (W) and Oregon St. to cover (+15).

Air Force vs. Colorado St.:
Colorado St. is really, really bad, although a winless team is sometimes more dangerous than an undefeated team (I'm going to wait and let that one just fly into space and hope that it hits some relevance along the way...). The team definitely hit right around rock bottom last week, losing to San Diego St. after being favored by 13. So, they have nowhere to go but up right?....right? Colorado St. (W, -3).

UConn vs. Virginia: The Huskies look to remain undefeated as they take on the Wahoos. UVA has also been impressive this season, winning their last five games. They do share two common opponents: Duke and Pitt. UVA beat the bag out of them at home, and UConn beat the bag out of them on the there's really not a lot there. UConn's defense has been incredible this year, and their offense is averaging 37 points a game. I know that there will be a few undefeateds to go down this weekend, I'm just hoping the Huskies can survive. UConn (W, +4)

Wisconsin vs. Penn St.: Well when you break it all down, there's not really too much to explain here. When Penn St. plays Wisconsin at home, they win, and when they don't...well you get the picture. Wisconsin has lost their last three ATS, and Penn St. is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home. I also like the fact that I have to give less than a TD. So, I'll take Penn St. (W, -6).

Last Week: SU: 7-3, ATS: 7-3
Season: SU: 30-16, ATS: 24-19-3

New England vs. Dallas:
The preview will be up shortly (I hope). Ehhh...ok, I guess I'll take the Pats (W, -6). Big twist of the arm there.

Cincinnati vs. Kansas City: Cincy is coming off a bye, and KC, who I stupidly picked last week (yes I'm still not over it) got run by Jacksonville (by the way, taking the over was a bad move as well...sorry). Despite the fact that they let me down last week, I'm going to go with KC (W, +3) again.

Houston vs. Jacksonville: Houston is 3-0 ATS at Jacksonville in the last three years. Both teams are coming off of wins last week. If this game is close, which I think it will be, it definitely favors the Texans, who won 13-10 at Jacksonville last year. Texans (W, +6.5).

Miami vs. Cleveland: So Miami remains winless. Wouldn't it be ironic if they went 0-16? One franchise could hold the title of having both the last undefeated and winless teams. You gotta love sports. Their starting QB is out, they seem to lose their close games in grand fashion, their defense is archaic...what more do you need? Also, what do you think the '76 Buccaneers do after the last team gets their first win? Toast King Cobras? In any event, had it not been for a freak fumble return by Randall Gay (thank you very much), the Brownies would have covered on the road. I see them fired up after last week, and scorching the 'Phins at home. Browns (W, -4).

Minnesota vs. Chicago: So Chicago did a 180 after losing their game against Detroit, handing Green Bay its first loss, while Minnesota is coming off a bye after losing three straight. Both teams are horrendous ATS (MIN 1-3, CHI 1-4), so really, you have to see where these teams are at right now. Brian Griese looked good against Green Bay, and Tavaris Jackson will come back and replace Kelly Holcomb, who is actually a better quarterback. Come to think of it, besides Green Bay, what a wacky division this has been for quarterbacks in the last two or three years. It seems like every backup quarterback is better than the starter, but for some reason, he doesn't get the start until either the guy in front of him goes out with an injury, or becomes so awful that fans were threatening to disown the team left and right if they didn't make a move. Jon Kitna was Josh McCown and Joey Harrington's backup...are you kidding me? Kelly Holcomb almost had enough to beat the Packers, but they're letting Tavaris Jackson back into the starting job because...anyone?...does anyone know? He's less talented, and with that offensive line, you really only need someone to hand off to Chester Taylor or Adrian Peterson, and then don't screw it up too much when you have to pass. Jackson screws up a lot...and he's still the starter! It boggles my mind. Oh well, welcome back Tavaris. Bears (W, -5).

Philadelphia vs. New York: So Philly is 1-3. I think they have to be the biggest disappointment in the NFL right now...even more so than San Diego because Philly at least has a coach that doesn't suck. The Jets are in Chad Pennington purgatory, where they desperately need to move on, but Pennington remarkably is coming back from injury quicker than expected, meaning he will again get the start, and not Kellen Clemens. Quick fact: Andy Reid is 8-0 coming off a bye. Also, can you remember two teams playing each other after their last game was at the same stadium? Philly's last game was two weeks ago against the Giants at the Meadowlands, and the Jets played the G-Men last week. Interesting. Also, Philly's last game was without Brian Westbrook, who now has had three weeks to nurse his ab injury. I have to go with Philly (W, -3).

St. Louis vs. Baltimore: Gus Frerotte. Ravens (W, -9.5).

Tennessee vs. Tampa Bay: The two quarterbacks who are the absolute best at what they do: Pulling wins out of their backsides. Tampa literally has no more running game. Signing Zach Crockett (fantasy alert) is great and all, but losing Caddy and Michael Pittman? How is this team going to go on after losing their running game? Plus, looking at how Indy just decimated Tampa's defense last week, there are obvious holes there. You can't go against Vince Young anymore...seriously. Plus, the Titans have won seven in a row on the road. I'll take my chances with the Titans (W, +3) on the road.

Washington vs. Green Bay: Hmmm...this could get interesting. Washington put a beating on Detroit at RFK last week, while the Pack lost its first game at home and in general after squandering a lead to the Bears. I know the Redskins' fans have some optimism about how their team may be going places...well, they're going to Green Bay, and I foresee bad things happening upon their arrival. Washington may be playing without Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El. Plus, Favre has owned the 'Skins, going 3-0, with the Pack winning those games by a combined score of 95-23. On a side note, with one more interception, Brett Favre will hold the career marks in both touchdowns and interceptions...basically becoming the Cy Young of football (Young holds the record for most career wins and losses by a pitcher). Packers (W, -3).

Carolina vs. Arizona: Ok, so I think I have Carolina pegged at this point. They need a fast track to win. Also, they need an opponent who's awful. The Cardinals will supply neither. Arizona is 4-1 against the number, and really, the Panthers need a good ass-kicking, because frankly, they have lived a charmed life on the road so far. With Leinart done for the year, 'Zona can forget about their little platooning experiment and focus back on winning games with Kurt Warner. Did I mention David Carr is going to be the starter for the rest of the year now that Jake is done for the year? Oh how good is it to be a Panther fan right now?...if there are any left. Cardinals (W, -4.5).

Oakland vs. San Diego: Now this matchup got a little more intriguing once the pieces fell into place. Oakland is coming off a bye after squishing the fish 35-17 two weeks ago. San Diego dominated Denver all game long, coming away with over 450 yards of offense and a 41-3 thumping on the road. While Oakland is definitely improving, they simply won't have a chance against the Charger offense. By the way, LT will make a pass attempt in this game. Just a random prop bet. Chargers (W, -9.5).

New Orleans vs. Seattle: The good news for the Saints is that they only lost by three last week. The bad news is that they're going to Seattle, who is likely peeved that they were shutout on the road last week. In any event, it's real simple. Unless the Seahawks self-implode, they're not going to lose this game. I like the 'Hawks (W, -7).

New York vs. Atlanta: The Giants seem to have a lot going for them besides the fact that their QB is still Eli Manning. In Atlanta, they seemed to be quick to go to Byron Leftwich to try and replace Joey Harrington. While I suggested this weeks ago, Harrington actually looked like he was improving. Then, they pull him because he's having a bad game against Tennessee in favor of Leftwich, despite the fact that he had no game action with the offense at all. If you're going to make that move, you're going to want to do it before a game, not during. I still think Petrino will tank this year to get a shot at Brian Brohm. And, oh by the way, the last time these teams played, which was last year, the Giants won 27-13 at the Georgia Dome. I like my chances betting on history and the G-Men (W, -3).

Last Week: SU: 9-5; ATS: 10-3-1
Season: SU: 51-25; ATS: 42-27-7

Pats preview will come tomorrow since it is really late and I got sidetracked by sleep, The Office, and fruit on the bottom mind is like a pretzel. Anyway, I'm hoping to get that preview done before tomorrow's game, and if not, I will conclude it afterwards. Take care everyone. Peace.


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