Thursday, May 31, 2007

Gator Bait

"Do you believe in (the) Magic?"

Greetings again everyone. More news means more babbling from me. So now, it's Howdy Doody time:

The big story today was Billy Donovan reportedly agreeing to coach the Orlando Magic to the tune of five years and $27.5 million. Donovan, a Providence graduate (ya gotta do the New England plug), coached the Gators for 11 years, compiling a 261-103 record, including two national titles (2005 & 2006). Donovan's announcement came as no surprise to insiders, as Orlando had been hot on Donovan's trail once it became clear that Brian Hill would not be returning to coach the team. This announcement can be taken in a couple of ways in terms of why he did it, and what can be expected from him. Let me start off with the why, which, at least to me, is pretty obvious. I understand that Florida has enjoyed success in Donovan's tenure. In fact, it's blatantly clear by his career record, which amounts to a .717 winning percentage. However, the SEC simply is not what it used to be in terms of the amount of quality teams. On a regular basis, you're looking at Kentucky being the only real "solid" program. Others, like Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas can string together a few good teams, but nothing that is constant. So Florida has been able to capitalize on that to an extent. True, they did reach the title game three times, winning two of their appearances, but those teams were pretty special, including the team from the last two years. So, my estimation is that Donovan's record is a little inflated, but still, he won two consecutive championships, and last time that happened was when Duke won in '91 and '92, so really, what is left for Donovan to prove in college basketball? Also, I think he definitely kept in mind the fact that all of his starters from last year...all of them...are gone, with four declaring for the draft, and Humphrey graduating. So, basically, it will be another rebuilding process similar to the one he had to do during the early 2000s, when guys like Mike Miller and Donnell Harvey left the program for the NBA (both were first rounders). I'm sure after time, it's got to be hard on a coach to continually rebuild a program seemingly every year, especially when you have enjoyed success with the same group of guys. In the NBA, your star players don't really move around all that often (of course unless they throw a fit...and that happens on occasion), so you are able to build your team around a superstar on most occasions. Donovan will get the chance to do that in Orlando, where he will be coaching Dwight Howard, voted in a fan poll done by ESPN as the "next big thing." Howard is already in an elite class of big men in the league, and he's only 21...seriously, so Howard will be the center (pun intended) of the Magic universe for years to come. Also...well...the money ain't bad either huh? There is no way Donovan could ever expect those kind of funds to be rolling in through Gainesville. I mean, sure, he won another national title, but the guys on the gridiron did too, and guess who brings in more paper? You guessed it, so while Urban Meyer could possibly be hitting the kind of numbers Donovan is getting, Billy made the right move, from a monetary standpoint, to move on to the pros. So what can you expect from Donovan throughout his time in Orlando? Well, think of it like this: I wouldn't expect the hugeness of his salary to translate as big in the W column. The Magic have a nice core, with Howard and Jameer Nelson at the point, but after that, there remains a lot of question marks. The Magic have a total of six free agents, most notably Grant Hill, whose albatross of a contract finally expires this year (5 years, $55 million). With that being said, Hedo Turkoglu and Tony Battie make up the rest of the lineup. Is there any possible way they can win with those guys? Well, yes and no. Let me explain. With just Howard, you can book them for 30 wins easily, and when you throw in the other guys, you could conceivably turn out around 40 games, but once they hit the postseason, forget it. Perfect example was this year, where the Magic got destroyed by the Pistons in four straight. Despite what people say, the balance of power is not as great as it once was in terms of East vs. West. The West still has the better talent, but the East has really started to come along, especially in Detroit and with Shaq and Dwayne Wade's arrivals in Miami. So, it's going to take more than what the Magic have now to make any progress in the playoffs. They are basically in need at 2, 3, and 4. With a quick look around the league, it seems that Rashard Lewis is going to be the only "elite" player who the Magic may pursue (Mike Bibby and Chauncey Billups are both available, but with Nelson there, I can't see them going after a point guard). Lewis has already opted out of a 7-year, $60 million deal two years early from Seattle, and with their sights set squarely on both drafting Kevin Durant, and moving the team to either Oklahoma City or Kansas City, there is simply no way Lewis will be returning to the Sonics. Also, when you consider the amount of cap space that is about to open up for Orlando, I don't see how they don't make a very aggressive run at Lewis. If they were able to lock him up to a long-term deal (27 years old), you're looking at one of the better combination of frontcourt players in the NBA. The Magic do not have a first round pick in this year's Draft, as they traded it to Detroit in the Darko trade made last February, so all of their rebuilding would have to come via free agency, making the potential courtship of Lewis that much more important. Here's the last thing I'm going to say about this. It is inevitable that comparisons are going to be drawn between Donovan and Rick Pitino, who also went the same route as Donovan in coaching an SEC team (Kentucky) to great success for a number of years, then going after the big payday in Boston, where he not only failed, but made one of the greatest post-game speeches of all-time, and thanks to Wikipedia, we can relive those famous words:

"Larry Bird is not walking through that door, fans. Kevin McHale is not walking through that door, and Robert Parish is not walking through that door. And if you expect them to walk through that door, they're going to be gray and old. What we are is young, exciting, hard-working, and we're going to improve. People don't realize that, and as soon as they realize those three guys are not coming through that door, the better this town will be for all of us because there are young guys in that (locker) room playing their asses off. I wish we had $90 million under the salary cap. I wish we could buy the world. We can't; the only thing we can do is work hard, and all the negativity that's in this town sucks. I've been around when Jim Rice was booed. I've been around when (Carl) Yastrzemski was booed. And it stinks. It makes the greatest town, greatest city in the world, lousy. The only thing that will turn this around is being upbeat and positive like we are in that locker room... and if you think I'm going to succumb to negativity, you're wrong. You've got the wrong guy leading this team."

Anyway, I don't think things are going to go quite as bad as they did for Pitino, and here's why: Pitino simply had too much responsibility when he came into town. He went straight from college, and immediately, not only was he the coach, but the President as well, and although this is most likely a "figure-head" kind of position, I'm quite sure it entailed some responsibilities that added onto the already daunting task of turning around a bottom-dwelling team. Donovan will infuse his enthusiasm into his young team, which is perfect for him, because the last thing he needs is a team with a bunch of egos that refused to be coached by "the new guy." I don't see too much resistance coming Billy's way, so I really think he can make things work in the Association. Also, depending on what they do in terms of additions in the next few years, you're looking at a team that has a chance to be perennial playoff contenders for the future, and with one or two more guys, maybe even looking at making a deep run in the East.

Ok, so here's a curveball for you (too many intentional puns), but I'm going to do a preview of the MLB Draft. An NBA one is in the works, and as soon as we enter the Finals, the Finals and Draft preview will be in full swing. But for now, I really want to draw your attention to this. For the first time ever, the Major League Baseball First-Year Draft will be on TV (Thursday, June 7th, 2PM, ESPN2). I'm actually pretty excited about this. Of course the reason there hasn't been a huge demand for the draft to be televised is due to the fact that, in baseball, it takes a guy a lot longer to have an impact on the team that drafted them as compared to the NFL, NBA, and even the NHL. There is a very select list of players who have gone straight from being drafted to the pros. Here's a couple of names for you:
  • Jim Abbott
  • Ernie Banks
  • Bob Feller
  • Catfish Hunter
  • Al Kaline
  • Harmon Killebrew
  • Sandy Koufax
  • John Olerud
  • Mel Ott
  • George Sisler
  • Dave Winfield
So that's a pretty elite list, and although it remains to be seen if one of the guys drafted this year will hit the pros directly, it's highly unlikely. So, these are some of the guys that you will eventually be hearing from in the near future:

Infielders:
  1. Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech
  2. Josh Vitters, 3B, Cypress (CA) HS
  3. Mike Moustakas, 3B/C, Chatsworth (CA) HS
  4. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Chatsworth (CA) HS
  5. Beau Mills, 3B/1B, Lewis-Clark (ID) St.
  6. Matt LaPorta, 1B, Florida
  7. J.P. Arecibia, C, Tennessee
  8. Nick Noonan, SS, Francis Parker (CA) HS
  9. Matt Mangini, 3B Oklahoma St.
  10. Mitch Canham, C, Oregon St.
  11. Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Memorial (TX) HS
  12. Devin Mesoraco, C, Punxsutawney (PA) HS
  13. Peter Kozma, SS, Owasso (OK) HS
  14. Yasmani Grandal, C, Miami Springs (FL) HS
  15. Zach Cozart, SS, Ole Miss
  16. Josh Donaldson, C, Auburn
  17. Christian Colon, SS, Canyon (CA) HS
  18. Ryan Dent, 2B, Wilson (CA) HS
  19. Danny Rams, C, Gulliver (FL) Prep
  20. Travis D'Arnaud, C, Lakewood (CA) HS
Outfield:
  1. Julio Borbon, Tennessee
  2. Jason Heyward, OF/1B, Henry County (GA) HS
  3. Michael Burgess, Hillsborough (FL) HS
  4. Corey Brown, Oklahoma St.
  5. Kentrail Davis, Theodore (AL) HS
  6. Kevin Keyes, Connally (TX)
  7. Eric Eiland, Lamar (TX) HS
  8. Matt Spencer, Arizona St.
  9. Todd Frazier, OF/SS, Rutgers
  10. Wendell Fairley, George County-Lucedale (MS) HS
  11. Hunter Morris, Grissom (AL) HS
  12. Danny Payne, Georgia Tech
  13. Chad Jones, Southern Lab (LA) HS
  14. Grant Desme, Cal Poly
  15. Kyle Russell, Texas
  16. Runey Davis, Georgetown (TX) HS
  17. Angel Morales, Caugus (PR)
  18. Brian Rike, Louisiana Tech
  19. Kellen Kulbacki, James Madison
  20. Colin DeLome, Louisiana Tech
Right-Handed Pitchers:
  1. Rick Porcello, Seton Hall (NJ) Prep
  2. Andrew Brackman, North Carolina St.
  3. Jarrod Parker, Norwell (IN) HS
  4. Phillippe Aumont, Gatineau (Quebec)
  5. Casey Weathers, Vanderbilt
  6. Blake Beaven, Irving (TX) HS
  7. Matt Harvey, Fitch (CT) HS
  8. Tim Alderson, Horizon (AZ) HS
  9. Jake Arrieta, Texas Christian
  10. Michael Main, Deland (FL) HS
  11. Chris Withrow, Midland Christian (TX) HS
  12. Neil Ramirez, Kempsville (VA) HS
  13. Josh Fields, Georgia
  14. Matt Latos, Broward County (FL) CC
  15. Nevin Griffith, Middleton (FL) HS
  16. James Simmons, UC Riverside
  17. Wes Roemer, Cal State Fulerton
  18. Eddie Kunz, Oregon St.
  19. Greg Peavey, Hudson's Bay (WA) HS
Left-Handed Pitchers:
  1. David Price, Vanderbilt
  2. Ross Detwiller, Missouri St.
  3. Daniel Moskos, Clemson
  4. Madison Bumgarner, South Caldwell (NC) HS
  5. Nick Schmidt, Arkansas
  6. Josh Smoker, Calhoun (GA) HS
  7. Jack McGeary, LHP/1B, Roxbury Latin (MA) HS
  8. Aaron Poreda, U. of San Francisco
  9. Brett Cecil, Maryland
  10. Joe Savery, Rice
  11. James Adkins, Tennessee
  12. Nathan Vineyard, Woodland (GA) HS
  13. David Newmann, Texas A&M
  14. Sean Doolittle, LHP/1B, Virginia
  15. Tanner Robles, Cottonwood (UT) HS
  16. Drake Britton, Tomball (TX) HS
  17. Cole Rohrbaugh, Western Nevada CC
  18. Tony Watson, Nebraska
  19. Nick Hagadone, Washington
  20. Dan Merklinger, Seton Hall
Ok, here's another thing I'm just going to go ahead and throw out there before I get into anything else: I was just reading some background on the Draft itself, and came across this table that was in an article written by Keith Law of ESPN.com. The article itself goes into a team's preference when it comes to drafting high school or college players. Anyway, it's a very well-written article if you get a chance to read it, but for now, here's the table I was talking about:

Draft preferences: 2004-06
(first five rounds)

TEAM

COLLEGE %

HS %

Blue Jays

93

7

Giants

91

9

Tigers

86

14

D-Backs

84

11

Cardinals

77

23

Indians

75

25

Pirates

73

27

White Sox

72

22

Red Sox

67

29

Padres

67

28

Mets

67

25

Rockies

65

29

Yankees

65

29

Mariners

64

36

Astros

63

25

Phillies

60

40

Athletics

60

35

Royals

56

44

Marlins

55

45

Reds

53

40

Cubs

50

42

Orioles

44

50

Twins

42

58

Nationals

40

60

Rangers

40

53

Brewers

36

50

Braves

30

55

Dodgers

28

61

Devil Rays

27

60

Angels

8

85

College+HS may not equal 100 percent because only four-year colleges were considered.


To me, it's astounding how many high school players Anaheim has drafted throughout the years. 85%? These are the guys who demand the big bonuses as well, and take longer to develop than guys coming out of college. To me, if you draft a couple of high schoolers with some high picks, then that's perfectly acceptable, but 85%? Wow. Ok, anyway, there are a few more things that you should know before the Draft preview is complete. First of all, we need to dive into the Draft order and compensation picks. With compensation picks, here's how they work: When a team loses a player to free agency, and the player signs with another team, his former team is owed compensation for losing that player. Now each player is given a certain grade, and their grade is determined by their two-year averages in comparison to others who play at their position. The Elias Sports Bureau determines this information, and the grading system goes as followed:

Type A Players: Ranks in the upper 30% of his respective position group
Type B Players: Ranks in the upper 50%, but not in the upper 30%, of his respective position group
Type C Players: Ranks in the upper 60%, but not in the upper 50%, of his respective position group

With that being said, here is the complete Draft order for the MLB Draft. Now, you may

notice that different classes of players have been designated as being worth different amounts of compensation. I'm not quite sure how this is determined, but it is interesting that two players of the same grade can receive different amounts of compensation. If I were to guess, they probably grade on a +/- system, like they do in school, where a guy like Soriano probably gets an A+, and a guy like Dave Roberts receives an A-. Anyway, here you go:

First Round
1. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2. Kansas City Royals
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Baltimore Orioles
6. Washington Nationals
7. Milwaukee Brewers
8. Colorado Rockies
9. Arizona Diamondbacks
10. San Francisco Giants
11. Seattle Mariners
12. Florida Marlins
13. Cleveland Indians
14. Atlanta Braves
15. Cincinnati Reds
16. Toronto Blue Jays (from Rangers for type A Catalanotto)
17. Texas Rangers (from Astros for type A Lee)
18. St. Louis Cardinals
19. Philadelphia Phillies
20. Los Angeles Dodgers (from Red Sox for type A Lugo)
21. Toronto Blue Jays
22. San Francisco Giants (from Dodgers for type A Schmidt)
23. San Diego Padres
24. Texas Rangers (from Angels for type A Matthews)
25. Chicago White Sox
26. Oakland A's
27. Detroit Tigers
28. Minnesota Twins
29. San Francisco Giants (from Mets for type A Alou)
30. New York Yankees

Supplemental First Round
31. Washington Nationals (for type A Soriano)
32. San Francisco Giants (for type A Alou)
33. Atlanta Braves (for type A Baez)
34. Cincinnati Reds (for type A Aurilia)
35. Texas Rangers (for type A Lee)
36. St. Louis Cardinals (for type A Suppan)
37. Philadelphia Phillies (for type A Dellucci)
38. Toronto Blue Jays (for type A Speier)
39. Los Angeles Dodgers (for type A Lugo)
40. San Diego Padres (for type A Williams)
41. Oakland A's (for type A Zito)
42. New York Mets (for type A Hernandez)
43. San Francisco Giants (for type A Schmidt)
44. Texas Rangers (for type A Matthews)
45. Toronto Blue Jays (for type A Catalanotto)
46. San Diego Padres (for type A Roberts)
47. New York Mets (for type A Bradford)
48. Chicago Cubs (for type B Pierre)
49. Washington Nationals (for type B Guillen)
50. Arizona Diamondbacks (for type B Counsell)
51. San Francisco Giants (for type B Stanton)
52. Seattle Mariners (for type B Meche)
53. Cincinnati Reds (for type B Schoeneweis)
54. Texas Rangers (for type B DeRosa)
55. Boston Red Sox (for type B Gonzalez)
56. Toronto Blue Jays (for type B Lilly)
57. San Diego Padres (for type B Park)
58. Los Angels Angels (for type B Kennedy)
59. Oakland A's (for type B Thomas)
60. Detroit Tigers (for type B Walker)
61. Arizona Diamondbacks (for type B Batista)
62. Boston Red Sox (for type B Foulke)
63. San Diego Padres (for type B Embree)
64. San Diego Padres (for type B Klesko)

Second Round
65. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
66. Kansas City Royals
67. Washington Nationals (from Cubs for type A Soriano)
68. Pittsburgh Pirates
69. Atlanta Braves (from Orioles for type A Baez)
70. Washington Nationals
71. St. Louis Cardinals (from Brewers for type A Suppan)
72. Colorado Rockies
73. Arizona Diamondbacks
74. Oakland A's (from Giants for type A Zito)
75. Seattle Mariners
76. Florida Marlins
77. New York Mets (from Indians for type A Hernandez)
78. Atlanta Braves
79. Cincinnati Reds
80. Texas Rangers
81. San Diego Padres (from Astros for type A Williams)
82. St. Louis Cardinals
83. Philadelphia Phillies
84. Boston Red Sox
85. Toronto Blue Jays
86. Los Angeles Dodgers
87. San Diego Padres
88. Toronto Blue Jays (from Angels for type A Speier)
89. Chicago White Sox
90. Oakland A's
91. Detroit Tigers
92. Minnesota Twins
93. New York Mets
94. New York Yankees

Third Round
95. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
96. Kansas City Royals
97. Chicago Cubs
98. Pittsburgh Pirates
99. New York Mets (from Orioles for type A Bradford)
100. Washington Nationals
101. Milwaukee Brewers
102. Colorado Rockies
103. Arizona Diamondbacks
104. Cincinnati Reds (from Giants for type A Aurilia)
105. Seattle Mariners
106. Florida Marlins
107. Philadelphia Phillies (from Indians for type A Dellucci)
108. Atlanta Braves
109. Cincinnati Reds
110. Texas Rangers
111. Houston Astros
112. St. Louis Cardinals
113. Philadelphia Phillies
114. Boston Red Sox
115. Toronto Blue Jays
116. Los Angeles Dodgers
117. San Diego Padres
118. Los Angels Angels
119. Chicago White Sox
120. Oakland A's
121. Detroit Tigers
122. Minnesota Twins
123. New York Mets
124. New York Yankees

Fourth Round
125. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
126. Kansas City Royals
127. Chicago Cubs
128. Pittsburgh Pirates
129. Baltimore Orioles
130. Washington Nationals
131. Milwaukee Brewers
132. Colorado Rockies
133. Arizona Diamondbacks
134. San Diego Padres (from Giants for type A Roberts)
135. Seattle Mariners
136. Florida Marlins
137. Cleveland Indians
138. Atlanta Braves
139. Cincinnati Reds
140. Texas Rangers
141. Houston Astros
142. St. Louis Cardinals
143. Philadelphia Phillies
144. Boston Red Sox
145. Toronto Blue Jays
146. Los Angeles Dodgers
147. San Diego Padres
148. Los Angels Angels
149. Chicago White Sox
150. Oakland A's
151. Detroit Tigers
152. Minnesota Twins
153. New York Mets
154. New York Yankees

Fifth Round and up
155. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
156. Kansas City Royals
157. Chicago Cubs
158. Pittsburgh Pirates
159. Baltimore Orioles
160. Washington Nationals
161. Milwaukee Brewers
162. Colorado Rockies
163. Arizona Diamondbacks
164. San Francisco Giants
165. Seattle Mariners
166. Florida Marlins
167. Cleveland Indians
168. Atlanta Braves
169. Cincinnati Reds
170. Texas Rangers
171. Houston Astros
172. St. Louis Cardinals
173. Philadelphia Phillies
174. Boston Red Sox
175. Toronto Blue Jays
176. Los Angeles Dodgers
177. San Diego Padres
178. Los Angels Angels
179. Chicago White Sox
180. Oakland A's
181. Detroit Tigers
182. Minnesota Twins
183. New York Mets
184. New York Yankees

After reading that, I'm really hoping Lugo will pan out for us, because he cost us not only $45

million over five years, but also, a first-round pick in what many have called on e of the deepest drafts, in terms of pitching, in recent memory. Ok, here's just one more thing for you: Unlike the other drafts, teams cannot trade picks, which I think is bizarre, but in any event, that's the rule, so basically, the same draft order that will run in the 5th round will run in the 50th round.

So, I hope I was able to give you a little bit of an education there, and not confuse you too much. Tampa will most likely be taking David Price #1. While I was at USC, I actually got a chance to see Price, and he is as good as he has been advertised. You're talking about a lefty who can consistently hit in the high 90s with his fastball. Again, hopefully he won't be a Brazelton for the Rays and have a great career at the Trop. Until next time, take it easy. Peace.

~Mell-o





















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